Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply and demand sides of the polyolefin market are under continuous pressure, and the price rebound lacks momentum. For PE, the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weakening, leading to large inventory pressure and limited short - term improvement. For PP, the supply is expected to remain high, demand is weak, and short - term rebound drivers are limited. [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6479 yuan/ton (-64), and the PP main contract is 6254 yuan/ton (-2). LL and PP spot prices and basis have different changes. [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 is 84.1% (+0.1%), and PP开工率 is 78.3% (+0.7%). [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 358.7 yuan/ton (+127.6), PP oil - based production profit is - 261.3 yuan/ton (+127.6), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 714.1 yuan/ton (+60.0). [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is - 100.0 yuan/ton (+5.1), PP import profit is - 268.1 yuan/ton (+4.9), and PP export profit is - 12.1 US dollars/ton (-0.6). [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film and packaging film开工率 decline, while PP downstream BOPP film开工率 increases slightly and plastic weaving开工率 remains unchanged. [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply is expected to increase due to low maintenance and new device production. Demand is weakening as downstream开工率 drops. Inventory pressure is large, and cost support is weakening. [2] - **PP**: Supply is expected to remain high with less maintenance. Demand is limited, and inventory levels are high. Cost support is weakening, and short - term rebound drivers are limited. [3] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom in the short term. - **Inter - period**: No strategy is provided. - **Inter - variety**: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 when it is high. [4]

油料日报 | 2025-12-18 豆一受需求疲软拖累，花生关注节前备货与油厂收购节奏 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4090.00元/吨，较前日变化+0.00元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01+110，较前日变化+0，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北大豆市场基层农户余粮水平偏低，普遍持有较强的惜售待涨心理，导致市场有效流通粮 源偏紧，部分大型加工企业收购价趋涨，叠加中储粮的入市收购政策明确构筑了市场价格底部，为大豆价格提供 了坚实的托底支撑，共同推动现货行情偏强。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.10元/ 斤，较前一日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙 江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.06元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国 标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔 粮装车报价2.18元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.2 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-12-18 市场流动性概况 2025-12-17，股指板块成交9932.62亿元，较上一交易日变动+16.94%；持仓金额14186.88亿元，较上一交易日变动 +0.84%；成交持仓比为70.51%。 国债板块成交3460.27亿元，较上一交易日变动-16.87%；持仓金额7431.97亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.16%；成交 持仓比为47.72%。 基本金属板块成交6315.92亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.43%；持仓金额6838.65亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.48%；成 交持仓比为99.61%。 贵金属板块成交9901.75亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.31%；持仓金额5185.53亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.18%；成交 持仓比为281.68%。 能源化工板块成交4344.09亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.36%；持仓金额4435.95亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.29%；成 交持仓比为86.51%。 农产品板块成交2924.43亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.45%；持仓金额5901.43亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.57%；成交 持仓比为44.22%。 黑色建材板块成交1733. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream follow - up is weak, and the price continues to fluctuate at the bottom. The supply is in a loose pattern, the demand support is weak, and the cost - side support has also weakened. The short - term is mainly in a weak shock, and it is advisable to wait for marginal device maintenance [1][2][3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5,744 yuan/ton (+0), the spot price of propylene in East China is 5,975 yuan/ton (+0), the spot price of propylene in North China is 6,015 yuan/ton (- 40), the basis of propylene in East China is 231 yuan/ton (+0), and the basis of propylene in North China is 78 yuan/ton (-24) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 74% (+0%). The production profit and capacity utilization rate of different production methods (PDH, MTO, naphtha cracking) are also involved in relevant figures [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is - 341 yuan/ton (+5) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - PP powder capacity utilization rate is 40% (-0.89%), production profit is - 215 yuan/ton (+40); epoxy propane capacity utilization rate is 76% (+0%), production profit is 82 yuan/ton (+0); n - butanol capacity utilization rate is 69% (-6%), production profit is 109 yuan/ton (-25); octanol capacity utilization rate is 77% (+1%), production profit is 497 yuan/ton (+36); acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 80% (+2%), production profit is 358 yuan/ton (+0); acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 81% (+0%), production profit is - 684 yuan/ton (+58); phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate is 80% (-3%), production profit is - 952 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene is 45,960 tons (-1,930) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The decline in port inventory has slowed down, while inland inventory has rebounded. Port total inventory continues to decline, with high floating storage pressure due to delayed unloading. Inland inventory is being replenished. On the supply side, coal - based production has stable operation, and southwest gas - based production has seasonal winter maintenance. In terms of MTO, new installations and maintenance affect demand in different regions. Traditional downstream industries have different operating conditions [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc., and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., MA2605 - MA2609) [7][16][21] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between different regions (CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, etc.) [26][30][31] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Port total inventory is 1,218,818 tons (-15,552 tons), with inventory in different ports showing different trends. Inland factory inventory is 391,140 tons (+38,310 tons). The MTO/P operating rate is 89.95% (-0.88%). The report also analyzes the reasons for inventory changes in ports and inland areas [1][2][33] 4. Regional Price Differences - There are price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between Lubei and Northwest (-280), Taicang and Inner Mongolia (-550), etc. These price differences have changed to varying degrees [2][37][44] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream industries such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [45][54] Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy - Inter - period: Go long on the MA2605 - MA2609 spread when it is low - Cross - variety: Go short on the LL2605 - 3*MA2605 cross - variety spread when it is high [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Amid policy expectation swings and complex global economic situations, investors should track sentiment-driven market trends and prepare for potential risks on the right side. Particular attention should be paid to the sectors of non-ferrous metals, precious metals, and certain commodities with high certainty [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations have shifted. After important meetings in December, future policy marginal increments may depend on growth-stabilizing points. The government will continue to boost consumption and promote "anti-involution." Multiple ministries have responded, and investment and consumption growth are expected to recover next year. China's November economic data shows mixed performance, with industrial production remaining resilient and consumption hitting a low for the year. The A-share market strengthened on December 17 [1] International Monetary Policy and Economy - The Fed restarted a "restrictive" stance, with expectations of future interest rate cuts. The US employment and PMI data are weak, while the eurozone's manufacturing PMI shows a mixed picture, and the UK's inflation has unexpectedly declined, increasing the expectation of a fourth interest rate cut this year. The market is currently driven by sentiment, but risks of macro and fundamental resonance should be watched out for [2] Commodity Market - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on non-ferrous metals and precious metals. The long-term supply constraints in the non-ferrous metals sector remain unresolved. In the energy sector, there are additional production cuts and geopolitical factors affecting the oil price. In the chemical industry, there is "anti-involution" potential in certain varieties. In the agricultural products sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan from the US and weather expectations. For precious metals, there are opportunities to buy on dips, but short-term risks for silver have increased [3] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Key News - The market strengthened throughout the day on December 17, with the ChiNext Index surging over 3%. Many stocks rose, and trading volume reached 1.83 trillion. The Fed's official said there is room for interest rate cuts but no need to rush. The UK's November CPI was lower than expected. The WTI crude futures rose due to Trump's order to block Venezuelan oil tankers. Many commodity futures closed with significant gains [6]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-18 矿山干扰消息频传，碳酸锂接近涨停 市场分析 2025-12-17，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于101500元/吨，收于108620元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化7.61%。当日 成交量为1158611手，持仓量为668589手，前一交易日持仓量666027手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-11010元 /吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单15636手，较上个交易日变化350手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价94600-99500元/吨，较前一交易日变化1200元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价93300-95600元/吨，较前一交易日变化1100元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1330美元/吨，较前一日变化70美元/吨。 近期碳酸锂价格表现强势，昨日碳酸锂期货主力合约接近涨停，主要是受到矿端干扰消息影响。继宁德时代枧下 窝矿被关停后，江西宜春自然资源局发布的关于注销27个采矿权的公示。该公示引发了市场对锂资源供应的担忧， 但值得注意的是，今日价格异常上涨主要反映了情绪面的波动，与行业基本面关联较弱。此外，社会库存延续下 降趋势，供应紧张局面未改，也在一定程度 ...

行业自律落地预期影响，价格震荡上行 工业硅： 市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-18 2025-12-17，工业硅期货价格偏震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8380元/吨，最后收于8470元/吨，较前一日结算变化 （130）元/吨，变化（1.56）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓210810手，2025-12-16仓单总数为8815手，较前一 日变化0手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9100-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。SMM统计，12月5日至12月11日，新疆地区样本硅厂周度产 量在42560吨，周度开工率在88％，较前周环比增加。周内新疆样本硅企产量增加主因上周新增硅炉产量释放。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。SMM报道，自12月上旬起，国内有机硅单体企 业逐步进入减排执行阶段，叠加11月中旬实控 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-18 天然橡胶社会库存环比继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15390元/吨，较前一日变动+220元/吨；NR主力合约12570元/吨，较前一日变动+185 元/吨；BR主力合约11160元/吨，较前一日变动+230元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15050元/吨，较前一日变动+150元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14650元/吨，较前 一日变动+200元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1850美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1780美元/吨，较前一日变动+25美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10900元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价10950元/吨，较前一日变动+300元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年11月份，重卡销量11.3万辆，同比大增65%，收获同比"8连增"的同时，还创造了今年重卡市场最高月销量。 据中国汽车工业协会发布的最新数据显示，11月，我国汽车产销量分别完成353.2万辆和342.9万辆，环比分别增长 5.1%和3.2%，同比分别增长2.8%和3.4%。月度产量首次 ...

原油日报 | 2025-12-18 委内瑞拉局势恶化，短期原油发货量下降 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所2026年1月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨67美分，收于每桶55.94美元，涨幅为1.21%；2月交货 的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨76美分，收于每桶59.68美元，涨幅为1.29%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.73%，报427 元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 当地日期12月17日，委内瑞拉国家石油公司（PDVSA）发布公告通报称，委内瑞拉原油及石油产品出口业务 正在正常开展。公告称，与委内瑞拉国家石油公司相关的油轮仍继续在充分的技术支持和运营保障下航行，合法 行使自由航行权利。自由航行与自由贸易的权利受到国际法的广泛承认和保护。委内瑞拉国家石油公司重申其捍 卫委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔共和国能源主权、履行合法商业承诺及保护海上运营的决心，重申始终遵循宪法、国际海事 法及《联合国宪章》原则行事。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 据乌克兰总参谋部称，乌克兰无人机袭击了俄罗斯卢克石油公司（LukoilPJSC）位于里海的格雷弗（Grayfer） 油田，并损坏了一个海上天然气平台。声明称，此次袭击发生在1 ...