Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the next 1 - 2 years, China's offset printing paper (double - offset paper) industry will face significant challenges in its supply - demand pattern. With the accelerating decline of the school - age population, the total market demand is under downward pressure. Meanwhile, production capacity is still being added, and inventory reduction in the industry depends on the active reduction of factory operating rates. Overall, before the industry integration and the elimination of backward production capacity are completed, double - offset paper will remain in a long - term low - prosperity cycle [4][97]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. Offset Printing Paper Basics - **Definition**: Offset printing paper is a type of cultural paper, mainly used in teaching materials, books, periodicals, and flyers. Double - offset paper, with sizing on both sides, is the most common type in the market and is often used to represent offset printing paper [15]. - **Classification**: It can be classified by size (regular size 787mm×1092mm and large size 889mm×1194mm), quantitative (usually 60 - 180g/㎡), brightness (high - white, natural - white, etc.), and calendering grade (super - calendered and normal - calendered) [16][17]. - **Quality Standards**: The new national standard GB/T30130 - 2023 for offset printing paper came into effect on July 1, 2024, replacing the previous one. It made adjustments to technical requirements such as quantitative, thickness, and brightness [18]. - **Packaging, Storage, and Logistics**: The mainstream packaging methods are roll packaging and flat - sheet packaging. Storage and logistics are relatively stable, with local sales being the main mode, and transportation mainly by road, supplemented by water and rail for medium - and long - distance [21][22]. 2. Double - Offset Paper Industry Chain Introduction - **Position in the Industry Chain**: Double - offset paper is the product of the mid - stream papermaking process, close to end - consumer markets [23]. - **Cost Composition**: The production of double - offset paper mainly uses wood pulp, accounting for about 70%. Chemical additives are also added. The pulp ratio varies among different manufacturers [27]. 3. Double - Offset Paper Supply: Domestic Oversupply and Declining Operating Rate - **Rapid Expansion of Domestic Capacity**: Since 2021, the domestic double - offset paper capacity has been in a rapid expansion cycle. From 2020 - 2024, the capacity increased from 1224 million tons/year to 1652 million tons/year, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.8%. If the planned new capacity of 225 million tons/year in 2025 is fully realized, the capacity will reach 1877 million tons/year by the end of the year, a 13.6% year - on - year increase [29]. - **Capacity Distribution**: The capacity is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal areas and some central China provinces, with East China having the largest share. The industry concentration is increasing [35][37]. - **Moderate Growth in Production**: From 2015 - 2024, the production increased from 830 million tons to 948 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of about 1.5%. The growth is moderate due to the inability of the growing capacity to be fully absorbed by the downstream market, leading to a decline in the operating rate [40]. - **Capacity Switching between Cultural Paper Types**: Most modern cultural paper machines can switch production between double - offset paper, coated paper, and other types. However, switching is restricted by high costs and is usually considered only under long - term loss expectations [43]. 4. Double - Offset Paper Demand: Slow Growth Affected by Population Structure and New Media - **Demand Structure**: From 2015 - 2024, the domestic demand for double - offset paper increased from 761 million tons to 903 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of about 1.9%. Teaching materials accounted for about 40% of the total demand from 2018 - 2024, with obvious seasonality [44]. - **Teaching Material Demand Affected by Population Inflection Point**: The demand for teaching materials is closely related to the number of school - age students. The number of school - age children is expected to decline significantly from 2026, which will gradually lead to a downward trend in the demand for double - offset paper for teaching materials in the next 1 - 2 years [70]. - **Social Book Demand Impacted by Paperless Trend and New Media**: The retail market for books and periodicals has been affected by the paperless trend and new media such as short - videos. The growth rate of retail sales of book - magazine products has been declining [73]. 5. Double - Offset Paper Import and Export: Net Export with Limited Impact on Supply - Demand - **Import Situation**: China's double - offset paper imports are mainly from Asia, with Indonesia accounting for a large proportion. The average import volume in recent years is about 22 million tons, with an average import dependence of about 2.6%. The impact on the total market supply is limited [91]. - **Export Situation**: Since 2022, the export volume has increased. The average export volume from 2022 - 2024 is about 98 million tons, with an average export dependence of about 10.2%. The export destinations are relatively scattered [95]. 6. Double - Offset Paper Supply - Demand Balance: Oversupply and Pressured Demand - The supply - demand pattern of the double - offset paper industry will face significant challenges in the next 1 - 2 years. With the decline in demand and the continuous addition of capacity, the industry will be in a low - prosperity cycle until industry integration and the elimination of backward capacity are completed [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's focus on inflation risks may limit interest - rate cuts, affecting the price trends of gold, the US dollar, and US stock indexes. - The stock market is expected to be strong, while the bond market may be weak due to recent policy - related meetings. - The supply and demand fundamentals of various commodities, including agricultural products, metals, and energy chemicals, are affected by factors such as production, imports, and policies, leading to different price trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher. Market risk aversion increased due to Trump's call for the resignation of Fed Governor Cook. The Fed's limited room for interest - rate cuts this year and Powell's likely cautious stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium suggest that gold will continue to trade within a range in the short term. [13] - Investment advice: Gold prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, and investors should be aware of the risk of price corrections. [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed's meeting minutes show that most members are more concerned about inflation than employment risks. Trump's actions regarding Fed Governor Cook and tariff policies have increased internal differences within the Fed. The US dollar is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with a more likely rate cut in September. [16][17] - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. [18] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's internal differences have increased, and concerns about inflation are rising. Market expectations for interest - rate cuts have reversed, causing the US stock market to correct. However, the decline has narrowed. [20] - Investment advice: Wait cautiously for Powell's speech on Friday as the market's risk appetite has declined. [21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The LPR remained stable in August. The central bank's large - scale reverse repurchase operations have maintained market liquidity, but the bond market is affected by the stock market. With recent policy - related meetings, the stock market is expected to be strong, and the bond market may be weak. [22][24] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - term bearish approach and be cautious when betting on price rebounds. [25] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In July, China imported a large amount of soybeans from Brazil. The Pro Farmer field survey shows good prospects for US soybean yields, which limits the increase in CBOT soybean prices. Domestic demand for soybean meal is better than expected, and the inventory of oil mills has decreased year - on - year. [26][28] - Investment advice: Soybean meal prices are expected to be moderately strong in a volatile market if China stops purchasing US soybeans. Pay attention to the results of the US field survey this week. [28] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Imported coal prices are firm, and Indonesian low - calorie coal has a price advantage over domestic coal. However, due to the decline in daily consumption and supply constraints caused by weather, coal prices are expected to fluctuate around 700 yuan in the short term and may decline seasonally in September. [29][30] - Investment advice: Coal prices may be range - bound in the short term due to supply constraints, but the seasonal decline is inevitable. [30] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A large - scale iron project in Western Australia has been approved. With the implementation of environmental protection restrictions in the north in late August, iron ore prices may be under short - term pressure but are expected to remain range - bound overall. [31] - Investment advice: Iron ore prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with limited impact on the balance sheet from short - term environmental protection measures. [32] 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - The US has expanded the scope of steel and aluminum tariffs. Domestic steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to factors such as inventory accumulation and environmental protection restrictions. [33][35] - Investment advice: Wait for further price corrections before considering investment. [35] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The slaughter capacity utilization rate of Huatong Co., Ltd. is around 30% - 40%. The pig market is affected by policies, and there is a game between weak current conditions and strong expectations. The de - stocking process is ongoing, but there are uncertainties in the rhythm. [36][37] - Investment advice: Consider establishing long positions in the LH2601 contract in the range of 14,000 - 14,150 yuan/ton. [38] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - Jujube prices in the Hebei market are stable. New - season jujube growth is normal, but the physical inventory is high. The market is in a state of oversupply, and the price trend is uncertain. [39][40] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and closely monitor the weather conditions in the production areas. [40] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of August and its sugarcane yield in July have shown certain changes. China's imports of syrup and premixed powder in July have increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Brazilian sugar production may face uncertainties, which may affect the global sugar supply. [41][42][43] - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term. Consider buying on dips in the January contract. [45] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A transaction of 30,000 tons of alumina in East Australia has been completed. The market sentiment is cooling, and the supply and demand are loose, leading to a weakening of the price trend. [46] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. [47] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is discussing anti - involution measures for the photovoltaic industry. The price of polysilicon may be affected by policies and market supply - demand relationships. The price is expected to trade between 49,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term and may reach over 60,000 yuan/ton in the long term. [48][50][51] - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach on price corrections. Consider reverse arbitrage opportunities between the November and December contracts when the spread is around - 2000 yuan/ton. [51] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In July, China's exports of industrial silicon increased. The supply may increase marginally in August, but due to the large - scale resumption of polysilicon production, the market may still experience de - stocking in August and enter a stocking phase in September. [52] - Investment advice: Industrial silicon prices are expected to trade between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton in the short term. Pay attention to trading opportunities within this range. [52] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market shows a contango, and the inventory is at a high level. The domestic lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the social inventory is high. The price may be under pressure, but the support from the recycling cost needs to be observed. [53][54] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term for both single - side trading and arbitrage. [55] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - China's exports of galvanized sheets and Peru's zinc concentrate production have increased. In July, China's imports of zinc concentrate reached a record high. The LME zinc market has a high structural risk, and the domestic zinc market is affected by imports and inventory. [56][57][58] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading in the short term. Consider long - term positive arbitrage opportunities and maintain a positive arbitrage strategy before the overseas inventory bottoms out. [59] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In July, China's imports of non - alloy nickel increased significantly. The LME and SHFE nickel markets show different inventory trends. The nickel market is affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and macro - environment. [60][61] - Investment advice: Nickel prices are unlikely to decline significantly in the short term. Consider short - term trading opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on price increases. [62] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In July, China's imports of lithium carbonate decreased significantly. The sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices was due to panic selling by some long - position holders. Fundamentally, there is no significant negative news, and the market may experience de - stocking in the third quarter. [63][64] - Investment advice: Consider buying on price dips and positive arbitrage opportunities. [64] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The development of a copper mine project in Arizona is facing uncertainties due to a court ruling. A copper mine expansion project in Zambia has been launched. The copper market is affected by factors such as the US economic situation, policy expectations, and inventory levels. [65][66][67] - Investment advice: Copper prices are expected to be widely volatile in the short term. Consider reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets. [68] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - South Korea plans to restructure its naphtha cracking capacity. The increase in the PG contract price on Wednesday was mainly due to sentiment rather than fundamental support. [69][70] - Investment advice: Do not short - sell for now. Consider positive arbitrage opportunities between the November and December contracts for the 2510 contract. [70] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA data shows a significant decline in commercial crude oil inventories. The oil price is expected to continue to trade within a narrow range, waiting for a directional driver. [71][72][73] - Investment advice: Wait for a directional driver in a volatile market. [73] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PX) - PX prices rebounded slightly. The supply is relatively stable, and the price mainly follows the trend of crude oil. [74] - Investment advice: Adjust positions according to the cost of crude oil. Consider buying on price dips with a light position. [75] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot basis of PTA has strengthened, and the market negotiation is fair. The demand from the weaving and polyester sectors is improving marginally. The price mainly follows the cost - end trend. [76][77] - Investment advice: The price mainly follows the cost - end trend. Consider buying on price dips with a light position and rolling the position. [78] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the market is weak, and the supply and demand are in a general situation. The price is expected to continue to be short - sold on price increases. [79] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling approach on price increases and pay attention to supply - side disturbances. [79] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the market has declined. The supply - side hype has subsided, and the market is weak. [80] - Investment advice: Be cautious in single - side trading. Consider arbitrage strategies, such as buying glass and short - selling soda ash when the spread widens. [81] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong has increased slightly. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and the price is expected to be range - bound. [82][83][84] - Investment advice: The caustic soda market has bottomed out, but the price increase may be limited. The price is expected to be range - bound. [84] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable, with some varieties showing a downward trend. The market is lackluster, and the price is expected to be range - bound. [85] - Investment advice: The pulp market is expected to be range - bound in the short term due to weak fundamentals. [85] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder is weak, and the downstream demand is general. The anti - dumping ruling in India may further weaken the market. [86][87] - Investment advice: The PVC market is expected to be weak in the short term. [87] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of styrene rebounded due to news of naphtha cracking capacity reduction in South Korea. The market may focus on future supply situations, and the price may be affected by cost and sentiment. [88][89] - Investment advice: Be aware of the impact of policies on the supply and cost of styrene and the spread of market sentiment. [89] 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories have been partially increased. The production capacity of major bottle chip factories will continue to be reduced in August, and attention should be paid to the pressure brought by the resumption of production and new production capacity in late August to September. [90][91] - Investment advice: The price of bottle chips mainly follows the trend of polyester raw materials. Pay attention to the impact of production capacity changes in late August to September. [91] 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The container throughput of Hamburg Port to the US has decreased significantly. The EU's trade situation has deteriorated due to US tariff increases. The supply of shipping capacity is still relatively high, and the demand is weak, so freight rates are expected to continue to decline. [92][93][94] - Investment advice: The freight rate is expected to be range - bound in the short term. Consider short - selling opportunities on price increases. [94]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Gold**: Short - term, the price is expected to be weak, and investors should be aware of correction risks [15] - **Stock Index Futures**: It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock index futures to cope with the rapidly rotating market [16] - **US Dollar Index**: Expected to maintain a volatile trend [20] - **US Stock Index Futures**: If Powell's speech at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is hawkish, there may be fluctuations in recent interest - rate cut trades, and investors should be aware of correction risks [21] - **Soybean Meal**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Pay attention to the results of this week's field inspections and the situation of China's soybean and soybean meal purchases from other countries [22] - **Edible Oils (Soybean, Rapeseed, Palm)**: After the market stabilizes, it may be an opportunity to lay out long positions [24] - **Cotton**: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strongly volatile, but the upside space is limited. In the fourth - quarter when new cotton is in large supply, the market is not optimistic [30] - **Steel (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The steel price is expected to have correction pressure in the near future, and investors should pay attention to volatility risks [34] - **Corn Starch**: When the new - season output is determined, the price difference between corn starch and corn (CS11 - C11) is expected to strengthen [35] - **Steam Coal**: In the short term, the coal price will be volatile around 700 yuan, and the seasonal decline may start around September [37] - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, the ore price will be volatile and slightly weak, but a trending decline is difficult to occur [38] - **Corn**: Hold short positions in the 11 and 01 contracts and continue to hold the 11 - 3 reverse spread. If the 11 - 1 spread strengthens, also pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [39] - **Polysilicon**: Unilaterally, maintain a bullish view on corrections. For arbitrage, consider the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity around - 2000 yuan/ton [43] - **Industrial Silicon**: The short - term price may fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [45] - **Lead**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [48] - **Zinc**: Unilaterally, it is difficult to trade in the short term, so wait and see. For arbitrage, pay attention to medium - term positive - spread opportunities. Before the overseas inventory hits bottom, maintain a positive - spread trading idea [51] - **Nickel**: In the short term, pay attention to band - trading opportunities. In the medium term, consider short - selling opportunities when the price is high [54] - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, the price is expected to be strong. Hold existing long positions and pay attention to opportunities to add long positions on dips. Avoid short positions in the medium term [57] - **Crude Oil**: It is expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the lack of directional drivers [59] - **Carbon Emissions (CEA)**: Short - term volatility is expected [61] - **PTA**: In the short term, the unilateral price will fluctuate with the cost side. Try to go long lightly on dips and roll positions [63] - **Styrene**: At the current price, it should be treated as volatile. Pay attention to cost - side changes caused by oil - price fluctuations due to meetings between the US and Russia [66] - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price is expected to be volatile [68] - **Paper Pulp**: The short - term market is expected to be volatile [70] - **PVC**: The short - term futures price is expected to be weak [71] - **Urea**: If the 2601 contract continues to rise tomorrow, long positions may consider taking profits. Then, adjust the strategy according to actual changes [73] - **Soda Ash**: Maintain a short - selling strategy when the price is high and continue to pay attention to supply - side disturbances [75] - **Bottle Chips**: Pay attention to the pressure brought by device resumption and new device commissioning from late August to September. The absolute price mainly fluctuates with polyester raw materials [77] - **Float Glass**: For unilateral trading, be cautious. Focus on arbitrage operations, such as going long on glass and short on soda ash when the spread widens [78] - **Container Freight Index**: The short - term futures price is expected to be volatile. Continue to pay attention to short - selling opportunities when the price is high [81] 2. Core Views - The A - share market is in a high - level shock after a rise, with trading volume remaining above 2 trillion yuan. The market sentiment is hot, and it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall in the absence of more negative news [16] - The market's expectation of resolving the Russia - Ukraine conflict has increased, but the situation is still delicate, and the US dollar index continues to fluctuate [19] - The technology sector has corrected significantly, and the US stock market is expected to be volatile and weak in the near future, waiting for Powell's speech at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [21] - The supply and demand of various commodities are different. Some are affected by production, policies, and inventory, while others are influenced by international trade and weather conditions, resulting in different price trends [22][33][42] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Trump administration has expanded the scope of steel and aluminum tariffs, covering 407 product categories with a 50% tax rate. Trump said the US will help Ukraine defend but not send ground troops, and the US plans a tri - party meeting. Gold prices are under pressure due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment and the expected hawkish stance of Powell [13][14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In July, the national general public budget revenue was 20273 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, the highest increase this year. The A - share market is in a high - level shock after a rise, with trading volume above 2 trillion yuan [16] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The White House is considering hosting a Russia - Ukraine leaders' meeting in Budapest. The market's expectation of resolving the Russia - Ukraine conflict has increased, and the US dollar index continues to fluctuate [19] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Trump administration is discussing acquiring a 10% stake in Intel. The technology sector has corrected, and the US stock market is expected to be volatile and weak in the near future, waiting for Powell's speech [21] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Private exporters sold 228,600 tons of soybeans to Mexico. The expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest has strengthened, and domestic market participants are concerned about soybean purchases from other countries and the arrival of imported Argentine soybean meal [22] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of August 15, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil and palm oil has increased. The decline in the oil market is due to profit - taking by long - position funds. After the market stabilizes, it may be an opportunity to lay out long positions [23][24] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The growth progress of US cotton is slow, but the good - quality rate has increased. In July, China's cotton imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The supply of domestic new cotton before listing is tight, but the price may be high at the beginning and then decline [25][29][30] 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - In July, China's steel production data showed different trends. Steel prices are weak, and the market's attention to "anti - involution" has decreased. The impact of environmental protection restrictions during the parade on supply is limited, and the inventory accumulation rate has accelerated [31][33] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch has stabilized. The price of raw corn has rebounded, and the cost support for corn starch has increased. The current starch inventory pressure is high, and the profit is expected to be weak in the long term [35] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Heavy rain in Ordos has affected coal production and transportation. Although the daily consumption has decreased, the supply is restricted in the short term, and the coal price will be volatile around 700 yuan. The seasonal decline may start around September [36][37] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Sydvaranger iron ore in Norway is restarting. The ore price is affected by the seasonal demand pressure and the performance of the steel products. In the short term, it will be volatile and slightly weak, but a trending decline is difficult [38] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of the imported corn auction has decreased. The futures price has continued to decline, and the 11 and 01 contracts are expected to decline due to selling pressure [39] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Six departments held a photovoltaic industry symposium. The policy aims to regulate the competition order. The fundamental situation is bearish for the market, but the price has support at 49,000 yuan/ton. Unilaterally, maintain a bullish view on corrections, and consider the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity around - 2000 yuan/ton [40][42][43] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A high - performance organic silicon project has been approved. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase marginally in August, but it may still be in a de - stocking state. In September, it may enter a stocking pattern. The short - term price may fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton [44][45] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Jinhuai Co., Ltd. has increased the production of zinc and lead concentrates. The external market has seen 20,000 tons of warehouse receipts, and the domestic market has followed the macro - trend. The supply of refined lead is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [46][47][48] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc warehouse receipt concentration has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The domestic zinc price has fallen, and the fundamentals have weakened. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to medium - term positive - spread opportunities, and maintain a positive - spread trading idea before the overseas inventory hits bottom [49][50][51] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Berong nickel mine in the Philippines plans to operate in the fourth quarter. The LME and SHFE inventories have decreased. The price of nickel ore has a downward expectation in September - October. The supply of nickel iron is in excess, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction of refined nickel has weakened. Pay attention to short - term band - trading and medium - term short - selling opportunities [52][53][54] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Yichang Bangpu's 450,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate project is about to be put into production, and Yichun Yinli will resume production. The supply - side disturbance has not been completely eliminated, and the demand is strong in the third quarter. The short - term price is expected to be strong [55][56][57] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US API crude oil inventory has decreased, and the gasoline inventory has also decreased, while the refined oil inventory has increased. The oil price is volatile and weak, and there is no clear directional driver [58][59] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price has increased slightly. The trading volume has not expanded significantly. The price may be under pressure due to the release of supply in the short term. The overall supply - demand structure this year is balanced and loose, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term [59][60][61] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price has increased, and the basis has strengthened. The weaving load has rebounded slightly, and the polyester load has also increased marginally. The processing fee may be slightly repaired. The unilateral price will fluctuate with the cost side, and it is recommended to go long lightly on dips [61][62][63] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The Fushun Petrochemical's 60,000 - ton/year styrene unit will be shut down for maintenance. The short - term supply of pure benzene is expected to be slightly de - stocked, and the supply of styrene will be high in the short term but may decrease in September. The current price of styrene is expected to be volatile [64][65][66] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has increased slightly. The supply has not changed much, and the demand from downstream alumina is good. The high - concentration caustic soda price may increase slightly, and the futures price is expected to be volatile [67][68] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Paper Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has mostly stabilized, and the futures price has declined. The market is lackluster, and the short - term market is expected to be volatile [69][70] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder price has decreased. The futures price is weak, and the export may decline due to India's anti - dumping ruling. The short - term futures price is expected to be weak [71] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - China's Foreign Minister is visiting India. The urea futures price has risen sharply. The domestic supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price may not have much room to fall in the short term. Pay attention to the impact of the improvement of China - India relations on exports [72][73] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe is in a low - level shock. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. After the bullish sentiment fades, the price is expected to be short - sold when it is high [74][75] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips has changed little, and the domestic price has increased slightly. The main factories will continue to cut production in August. Pay attention to the pressure brought by device resumption and new device commissioning from late August to September [76][77] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe has decreased slightly. The market is under pressure, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral trading and focus on arbitrage operations [78] 3.2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight) - The Panama Canal plans to build two new ports. The container freight rate has decreased, and the supply pressure in September has improved marginally. The demand has weakened, and the freight rate is expected to continue to decline. The short - term futures price is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities when the price is high [79][80][81]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for liquefied petroleum gas [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The widening of the FEI - MB spread since August is mainly due to trade flow changes and cargo flow bottlenecks driving up transportation costs, and it is expected to weaken marginally after late August as the Panama congestion eases, but the space for reverse shorting is limited. If the Far - East arrival schedule is significantly delayed and the stocking demand in September is not fully met, FEI may remain relatively strong until October [2][4][13] - The CP contract price has been weak since July, and the low relative valuation in the next two months is expected to continue. The ongoing long - term contract negotiations in India, port congestion, and high freight rates suppressing FOB negotiations may continue to affect the price performance of the CP contract [3][4][30] Summary by Relevant Directory 1. FEI's Relative Valuation Strengthens, Trade Flow Changes and Cargo Flow Bottlenecks Drive up Transportation Costs - In July, both domestic and foreign LPG prices were weak, with the weakening absolute price, gas - oil ratio, and near - month spread reflecting weak market sentiment. The weak fundamentals of the LPG commodity and poor spot sentiment were the main negative factors. The supply - demand pattern of LPG in the second half of this year is expected to be looser than in the first half, weaker than previously expected [12] - In August, the near - month spread and relative valuation of FEI strengthened significantly, especially the sharp widening of the FEI - MB spread. The core reason is the increase in transportation costs caused by trade flow changes and cargo flow bottlenecks. The spread is expected to weaken marginally as the Panama congestion eases, but it is difficult to provide a good opportunity for reverse shorting [13] - Since April, affected by Sino - US tariff policies, LPG trade flows have changed significantly. The increase in long - distance trade volume has led to an increase in ton - mile transport demand and a relative tightening of available fleet capacity, causing freight rates to rise continuously since May. In August, the congestion of the Panama Canal was the core reason for the strengthening of the FEI/MB spread, but the spread is not expected to continue rising. The congestion is likely to improve significantly by the end of August at the latest [18][21][22] 2. Indian Long - Term Contract Negotiations and Seasonal Port Congestion May Continue to Suppress the Absolute Price of CP Contracts - Since July, the CP price has been continuously weak and its valuation is low. The CP official price, which had been relatively strong since the beginning of the year, reversed in July and continued to decline in August. In addition to the loosening of supply and demand, the long - term contract negotiations in India have also put additional pressure on the CP price. It is expected that the official price of CP in September may still be low [30][31] - India's demand has maintained a high growth rate this year, but port congestion during the summer may continue to affect the performance of the CP contract price. High freight rates suppressing FOB negotiations may also contribute to this. It is likely that the CP will increase the arrival premium without increasing the absolute price in the short term [32] 3. Summary and Investment Suggestions - The spread between FEI and MB is expected to weaken marginally after late August as the Panama congestion eases, but the space for reverse shorting is limited. If the Far - East arrival schedule is significantly delayed and the stocking demand in September is not fully met, FEI may remain relatively strong until October [37] - The low relative valuation of CP in the next two months is expected to continue. The long - term contract negotiations in India, port congestion, and high freight rates suppressing FOB negotiations may continue to affect the price performance of the CP contract, and it is likely that the CP will increase the arrival premium without increasing the absolute price in the short term [37]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cast aluminum alloy is "Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The implementation of policies such as the "Notice on Matters Related to the Implementation of Policies on Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" may have a significant impact on aspects like local tax rebates and reverse invoicing in the recycled aluminum industry, increasing production costs and potentially leading to production cuts or shutdowns [2][3][10] - Under the influence of reverse invoicing investigations and tax rebate declines, the demand for invoiced resources and imported raw materials is expected to increase, and the production costs of ADC12 in East and South China may change structurally, providing strong support for the price of ADC12 [4][24] - Considering the cost - increase expectations on the smelting side and the supply shortage of scrap aluminum, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. In terms of arbitrage, going long on AD2511 and shorting AL2511 is more secure, and attention can be paid to the position - building opportunity when the price difference is below - 500 [4][24] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Event Overview - Since August 1, 2024, the "Regulations on the Review of Fair Competition" has clearly restricted tax incentives for specific operators. Recently, the "Notice on Matters Related to the Implementation of Policies on Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" may have a major impact on local tax rebates and reverse invoicing in the recycled aluminum industry [10] Event Analysis - Due to the low entry threshold of the recycled aluminum industry and local tax rebate policies, a large amount of production capacity has expanded, resulting in intensified competition, thin profits, and low capacity utilization. As of July 2025, the monthly production capacity of 158 sample recycled cast aluminum enterprises reached 1264,500 tons, but the output was only 528,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 41.7%. In 2024, the operating production capacity of recycled aluminum in China was 23 million tons, and the actual output was 10.5 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 45%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5 pcts [10] - There are "tax havens" in the recycled aluminum industry. The comprehensive tax burden of recycled aluminum enterprises in Anhui is about 6.5%, and the lowest can reach 5.5%, which can reduce the operating cost by 300 - 400 yuan/ton. In 2024, the production capacity of recycled aluminum in Anhui exceeded 2 million tons, accounting for more than 10% of the national total [11] - The policy aims to promote fair competition. The cancellation of local tax rebates may increase the comprehensive tax burden by about 4% and the production cost by up to 800 yuan/ton. Some enterprises in tax - haven areas may face production cuts or shutdowns. However, the policy implementation has a gradual nature, and most enterprises are given a buffer period [17][18] - The policy may reduce the demand for scrap aluminum, but if local governments investigate the compliance of reverse invoicing, the demand for invoiced and imported scrap aluminum will increase sharply. The cost in East China may increase significantly [21] Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. In terms of arbitrage, going long on AD2511 and shorting AL2511 is more secure, and attention can be paid to the position - building opportunity when the price difference is below - 500 [4][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai and Ningbo ports' congestion has improved compared to the previous period, but the ship turnover time remains high. With the weakening of the shipping scale trend, the pressure on Chinese ports is expected to ease, but potential weather disturbances need attention. Southeast Asian port congestion pressure has significantly declined. [2] - In Europe, issues such as summer vacations, labor shortages, railway construction in Germany, and low water levels in the Rhine are still intensifying, leading to a continuous increase in port pressure. [2] - The overall congestion level of North American ports is controllable, and attention should be paid to subsequent port operation dynamics. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data点评 - **Asian Ports**: Yangshan, Waigaoqiao, and Ningbo ports in China have different average waiting and berthing times for ocean - going container ships, with varying numbers of ships at anchor and in berth. Southeast Asian ports like Singapore and Port Klang also show different congestion situations. Chinese port congestion has improved, and Southeast Asian port pressure has dropped significantly. [2] - **European Ports**: Ports such as Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg in Europe have high average waiting and berthing times for ocean - going container ships. Problems like summer vacations, labor shortages, railway construction, and low river water levels are causing continuous pressure on European ports. [2] - **North American Ports**: Overall congestion in North American ports is controllable, with different average waiting and berthing times for ocean - going container ships in various ports. [2] 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides data on the in - port duration of key container ports, including month - on - month and year - on - year changes. For example, Yangshan Port's latest in - port duration is 47.0 hours, with a month - on - month increase of 6.0 hours and a year - on - year increase of 16.3 hours. [6] 3.3 Asian Port Dynamic Tracking - It presents data on the scale of container ships in ports in China and Southeast Asia, the number of container ships at anchor and in berth in different ports, and the average in - port, waiting, and berthing times of ocean - going container ships in Southeast Asian and Chinese ports. [8][16] 3.4 European Port Dynamic Tracking - It shows the scale of container ships in European ports, the number of container ships at anchor and in berth in major ports in north - western Europe and the Mediterranean, and the average in - port, waiting, and berthing times of ocean - going container ships in north - western European and Mediterranean ports. [19][27] 3.5 North American Port Dynamic Tracking - It provides data on the scale of container ships in North American ports, the number of container ships at anchor and in berth in some ports, and the average in - port, waiting, and berthing times of ocean - going container ships in US ports. [32][34] 3.6 Large - Ship Arrival Situation and Key Hub Monitoring - It shows the arrival situation of large - scale container ships at Yangshan, Ningbo, and Singapore ports, the arrival situation of 1.2w + container ships of different alliances in Asian, north - western European, and Mediterranean ports, and the passage situation of container ships at the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal. [42][45][48]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the demand for stockpiling has stimulated an increase in the supply of photovoltaic glass. The industry's production and sales are currently favorable, with full orders and an expected price increase. However, after the implementation of the policy to cancel the export tax rebate for components, there is a risk of a significant weakening in the shipments of photovoltaic glass manufacturers [1][8]. - As the price of photovoltaic glass rises, the industry's profits have continued to recover recently [2][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - **Supply**: Last week, some photovoltaic glass enterprises resumed kiln production. The main reasons were that downstream component manufacturers increased their stockpiling due to the policy of canceling the export tax rebate for components, and the market released news of a price increase in September, prompting some component enterprises that missed the stockpiling opportunity at the end of July to actively build up inventories [1][8][12]. - **Demand**: The actual demand from the component side is mainly for stockpiling, and there has been no substantial improvement in terminal power stations. After the implementation of the policy to cancel the export tax rebate for components, there is a risk of a significant weakening in the shipments of photovoltaic glass manufacturers [1][8][22]. - **Inventory**: Affected by the possible cancellation of the export tax rebate for downstream components, many component manufacturers are increasing production in the short term, driving up the consumption of photovoltaic glass and narrowing the supply - demand gap. The industry's inventory has declined for multiple consecutive weeks, and the current actual inventory is within a normal range, with no inventory pressure on manufacturers [1][8][25]. - **Cost - Profit**: As the price of photovoltaic glass rises, the industry's profits have continued to recover recently [2][8][28]. 2. Overview of the Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data 2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Price - As of August 15, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass in China was 11 yuan per square meter, unchanged from the previous week; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass was 18 yuan per square meter, also unchanged from the previous week. In August, the price of photovoltaic glass was mainly driven by an industry internal meeting, and the price - support measures of glass groups were effective [1][8][9]. 2.2 Supply - Side - Last week, some photovoltaic glass enterprises resumed kiln production. The main reasons were that downstream component manufacturers increased their stockpiling due to the policy of canceling the export tax rebate for components, and the market released news of a price increase in September, prompting some component enterprises that missed the stockpiling opportunity at the end of July to actively build up inventories [1][8][12]. 2.3 Demand - Side - The actual demand from the component side is mainly for stockpiling, and there has been no substantial improvement in terminal power stations. After the implementation of the policy to cancel the export tax rebate for components, there is a risk of a significant weakening in the shipments of photovoltaic glass manufacturers [1][8][22]. 2.4 Inventory - Side - Affected by the possible cancellation of the export tax rebate for downstream components, many component manufacturers are increasing production in the short term, driving up the consumption of photovoltaic glass and narrowing the supply - demand gap. The industry's inventory has declined for multiple consecutive weeks, and the current actual inventory is within a normal range, with no inventory pressure on manufacturers [1][8][25]. 2.5 Cost - Profit - Side - As the price of photovoltaic glass rises, the industry's profits have continued to recover recently [2][8][28]. 2.6 Trade - Side - From January to June 2025, China's photovoltaic glass exports increased by 9.7% compared with the same period in 2024 [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high, with the market being hot and retail investors accelerating their entry. It is expected to continue the process of bubble - formation in the short term, but pressure will emerge after the sentiment reaches its peak [2][18]. - The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is difficult to resolve in the short term, so the US dollar will remain volatile. Gold prices are under pressure due to the marginal easing of geopolitical risks [11][14]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to weaken seasonally as the weather cools in mid - to late August. The price of copper is likely to continue its high - level oscillation pattern [3]. - The prices of various commodities and financial products are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations, and their trends are complex and changeable. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Germany's Chancellor Merz said the tri - party meeting exceeded expectations, and Trump and Putin agreed that Putin and Zelensky would meet in two weeks. Gold prices are under pressure due to the marginal easing of geopolitical risks. The market is concerned about Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium. It is recommended to pay attention to the callback risk of short - term gold prices [11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump and Zelensky hope to reach a consensus through tri - party talks, but the differences between Russia and Ukraine are large, so the short - term conflict is difficult to resolve, and the US dollar will remain volatile [14]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Both Russia and the US support direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, but the structural differences between the two sides on territorial issues are difficult to resolve, and the negotiation signal is more significant than the actual impact. It is necessary to pay attention to the callback risk if Powell's speech at the global central bank symposium is hawkish [16]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council will take measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high, and the market is hot. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [17][18][19]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 2665 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 1545 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and it is recommended to take a bearish approach and be cautious when betting on rebounds [20][21][22]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills increased slightly. Brazil's soybean exports in the first two weeks of August increased year - on - year. The good - rate of US soybeans was the same as the previous week and higher than market expectations. It is recommended to maintain a view of slightly bullish oscillation and pay attention to the Pro Farmer Midwest field inspection [23][24][25]. 2.2 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - From January to July, national railways transported 11.96 billion tons of coal. The price of thermal coal continued to rise this week but is expected to enter a seasonal decline as the weather cools. The impact of over - production inspections on the operating rate is small, and the operating rate of coal mines decreased slightly [26][27][28]. 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Fenix's Beebyn - W11 iron ore completed its first shipment. The price of iron ore is oscillating weakly, and it is expected to be weak in the short term due to factors such as the seasonal accumulation of finished product inventory and the decline of surrounding varieties [29]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - India imposed safeguard measures on flat steel products, and Vietnam imposed anti - dumping duties on carbon and alloy steel coated coils. China's steel exports increased in July. Steel prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is necessary to pay attention to volatility risks [30][31][33]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The Philippines obtained a 2026 fiscal - year sugar export quota to the US. South Africa's sugarcane production is expected to increase by more than 7% in 2025. China's sugar imports in July were at a record high for the same period. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillating, and it is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips for the January contract [35][36][37]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in different regions were negative on August 18. The spread between CS09 and C09 weakened again. The supply - demand situation of starch is still weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to pay attention to the regional spread between North China and Northeast China [39]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The import volume of major feed grains in China increased in July. Corn futures prices continued to decline after the contract change. It is recommended to hold short positions in the November and January contracts and pay attention to weather conditions. There may be opportunities for 11 - 3 reverse arbitrage [40]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Some high - energy - consuming industries in the northern region received notices of production restrictions for the military parade. Only one alumina enterprise in Henan reported potential production reduction. The supply - demand of alumina is in an oversupply trend, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [41][42][43]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots decreased. Anhui's environmental protection situation has no new progress, and the supply of refined lead is still under pressure. The import of lead needs continuous attention. The start - up rate of lead - acid battery factories increased, but the peak - season demand may be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [45][46][47]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a discount on August 15. Penoles' zinc production declined in the second quarter. The external market has high structural risks, and the domestic fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, pay attention to medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities, and maintain a positive arbitrage idea before overseas inventories bottom out [48][49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Inner Mongolia completed the first settlement of new energy marketization. The spot price of polysilicon changed little, and the inventory increased. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in August, and the terminal demand is weakening. It is recommended to use a callback - bullish strategy for single - side trading and pay attention to 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunities at a spread of about - 2000 yuan/ton [50][52][54]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hoshine's coal - electricity - silicon integration project phase III had an environmental assessment public notice. The supply of industrial silicon may increase marginally in August, but the demand from polysilicon may also increase, and the inventory may decrease. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term, with the risk being the resumption of production by large factories [55][56]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased on August 18. The macro - environment has cooled slightly, and the supply - demand of nickel is in a double - weak pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [57][58]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sichuan Energy Power's lithium mine is in the production - ramping stage, and Australia's Covalent's lithium hydroxide plant started production. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate may turn to inventory reduction in the third quarter, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions and look for opportunities to buy on dips [59][60][61]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chile's Codelco applied to restart part of the El Teniente copper mine. Speculative funds increased their bullish bets on COMEX copper for the first time in four weeks. The short - term macro - factors support copper prices, but the weight of commodities in multi - asset allocation may be adjusted down. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage strategies [63][64][65]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The congestion at Indian ports continues, and the congestion at the Panama Canal has eased. The price of LPG arriving in the Far East still has support, while the CP is expected to be weak in the short term [66][67][68]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US and Russia support direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and oil prices rose slightly. The market is still waiting and seeing, and oil prices lack directional drivers in the short term. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating view and wait for new drivers [69][70]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries increased, while the social inventory decreased. The fundamental improvement of asphalt is limited, and the futures price is expected to be in a dilemma in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [71][72]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories changed little. The price of bottle - chip futures rose. The industry's production reduction has an effect, and the processing fee has slightly recovered. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure brought by the resumption of production and new installations from late August to September [73][74][75]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong rose on August 18. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was good. The spot price of caustic soda has bottomed out, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [76][77]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market was mainly stable. The futures price of pulp oscillated weakly. The overall sentiment of commodities has cooled, and the pulp market is expected to oscillate in the short term [78][79]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in China decreased. The futures price oscillated after a decline. India's anti - dumping ruling may reduce China's PVC exports, and the short - term futures price is expected to be weak [80]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The price of PX rose. The domestic PX supply is expected to increase marginally, and the profit is compressed. The single - side price of PX mainly follows the oscillation of crude oil. It is recommended to adjust with the cost of oil prices and try to go long lightly on dips [81][82]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA rose, and the basis was stable. The demand at the weaving end rebounded slightly, and the polyester load increased marginally. The PTA processing fee may have a small repair space. It is recommended to follow the cost - end oscillation and try to go long lightly on dips [83][84][85]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the Shahe area oscillated and adjusted. The supply of soda ash increased, and the demand was average. The futures price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to manage positions well [86]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market changed slightly. The futures price of glass decreased, and the market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to operate cautiously on the single - side and focus on arbitrage operations, such as the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash when the spread widens [87]. 2.27 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports increased. The supply of pure benzene is expected to decline slightly in the short term, and the supply - demand of styrene will gradually balance in September but may accumulate inventory in the long term. The price of styrene is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cost - end changes caused by oil - price fluctuations [88][89]. 2.28 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - India's NFL issued a urea import tender. The urea futures price oscillated under pressure, and the spot price fell significantly. The demand is weak, and the futures price is affected by potential internal and external policy expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the potential changes in the export end [90]. 2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The container throughput of Yangshan Port in July reached a record high. The SCFIS (European line) index decreased. The supply pressure in September has improved, but the demand is weakening, and the freight rate will continue to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions in the October contract and pay attention to the empty - voyage situation during the National Day [91][92].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In recent years, the Chinese commodity options market has witnessed explosive growth, with continuous enrichment of trading varieties and a significant increase in trading volume. The market participant structure shows a significant institutionalization trend, and investment strategies vary among different participants. Market volatility characteristics have also changed profoundly, posing challenges to traditional options strategies. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize options strategies. This report focuses on Delta, Gamma, and Theta among the option Greeks, elaborating on their meanings, characteristics, and how to optimize directional options strategies based on them from four dimensions: opening positions, adjusting positions, taking profits, and setting stop - losses [1][12][16][21]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Necessity of Optimizing Options Strategies - The Chinese commodity options market has achieved explosive growth. From a product layout perspective, it has formed a complete product system covering 55 varieties, with a target coverage rate exceeding 70%. In terms of market scale, the annual compound growth rate of on - exchange commodity options trading volume from 2017 - 2023 was as high as 117%, and the off - exchange market also maintained an average annual growth rate of 77.68% in the past five years [12]. - The options market participant structure shows significant institutionalization. In the Shanghai Stock Exchange options market, the proportion of individual investors has been decreasing year by year, and in 2024, institutional investors accounted for 68.29%. Individual and institutional investors have different investment strategies, with individuals preferring to buy to open positions for directional gains and institutions mainly selling to open positions [16]. - Market volatility characteristics have changed. Major macro - events have led to an increase in the volatility center, and the popularity of algorithmic trading has made the market microstructure more complex. Traditional options strategies relying solely on directional judgments or fixed parameters may not adapt to the new environment [16][21]. 2. Meanings and Characteristics of Delta, Gamma, and Theta 2.1 Delta: Current Earning Speed - Delta measures the first - order sensitivity of the option price to the underlying price. It is affected by the moneyness (S/K), time to maturity (T), and volatility (σ). In the Black - Scholes framework, the Delta of a call option can be regarded as the risk - neutral probability of the underlying asset being in - the - money at maturity, while the absolute value of the Delta of a put option corresponds to the probability of the underlying being below the strike price at maturity [24]. - The moneyness has a core impact on Delta. The Delta of a call option increases monotonically from 0 to 1 as the underlying asset price rises, while that of a put option increases monotonically from - 1 to 0, showing an S - shaped curve [25]. - The impact of time to maturity on Delta is non - linear. For in - the - money and out - of - the - money options, the Delta of deep in - the - money options converges to 1 as time decreases, and that of deep out - of - the - money options decays to 0. For at - the - money options, the Delta becomes more sensitive to underlying price changes as the expiration date approaches [28]. - The impact of implied volatility on Delta is dynamic and non - monotonic. For in - the - money and out - of - the - money options, the impact is asymmetric. For at - the - money options, an increase in implied volatility causes the Delta to converge to 0.5 [30]. 2.2 Gamma: Future Earning Acceleration - Gamma measures the second - order sensitivity of the option price to the underlying price, indicating the change rate of Delta. It is affected by the moneyness (S/K), time to maturity (T), and volatility (σ) [34]. - The moneyness has a significant impact on Gamma. Gamma shows a bell - shaped curve distribution. The Gamma values of deep in - the - money and deep out - of - the - money options are close to zero, while the Gamma of at - the - money options reaches its peak [35]. - The impact of time to maturity on Gamma is non - linear. For at - the - money options, Gamma increases rapidly as the expiration date approaches, especially in the last 1 - 5 trading days. For deep in - the - money or out - of - the - money options, Gamma remains close to zero and is less affected by the remaining term [42]. - The impact of implied volatility on Gamma is significant for at - the - money options, showing a negative correlation. High implied volatility weakens the timeliness requirement of Gamma hedging, while low implied volatility increases the urgency of Gamma hedging [45]. 2.3 Theta: Cost for Option Buyers - Theta measures the first - order sensitivity of the option price to time, representing the decay rate of the option's time value. It is usually negative and is affected by the time to maturity, moneyness, and implied volatility [49]. - The impact of time to maturity on Theta is non - linear. For at - the - money options, Theta shows an "acceleration effect", with the time value decaying non - linearly faster as the expiration date approaches. For deep in - the - money or out - of - the - money options, Theta is less sensitive to the change in the remaining time [51]. - The moneyness has a significant impact on Theta. The absolute value of Theta shows an inverted U - shaped distribution, with the at - the - money options having the largest absolute value of Theta [54]. - The impact of implied volatility on Theta is non - linear. An increase in implied volatility leads to an increase in the absolute value of Theta for at - the - money options, while the impact on out - of - the - money and deep in - the - money options is relatively small [57]. 3. Optimizing Directional Options Strategies Based on Delta, Gamma, and Theta 3.1 Opening Positions - When constructing an option buyer strategy, the choice of strike price is crucial. Different moneyness options have different risk - return characteristics. Investors should choose according to the expected trend of the underlying asset. For short - term sharp rises, at - the - money or slightly out - of - the - money options may be better; for long - term steady upward trends, in - the - money options may be more advantageous [61]. - When evaluating the cost - effectiveness of strike price selection, the historical percentile of implied volatility should be considered. In a high implied volatility environment, out - of - the - money options show better cost - effectiveness [62]. - The remaining time to maturity also affects the option value. For short - term trading, options with a remaining maturity of less than 1 month are suitable; for medium - and long - term layouts, in - the - money options can better control time value decay [68]. - The current on - exchange commodity options market in China has a single contract term structure. The launch of short - term options provides more strategy options, such as the calendar spread strategy [69][71]. 3.2 Adjusting Positions - "Chasing to buy": When implementing a call option buying strategy, as the underlying price rises, the option position moves from out - of - the - money to in - the - money. By adjusting the position to out - of - the - money options, it can balance the locking of profits and risk control [76]. - "Chasing to sell": When implementing a put option selling strategy, as the underlying price rises, the option becomes more out - of - the - money. By adjusting the position from deep out - of - the - money to slightly out - of - the - money options, it can increase the profit space, but it also requires strict risk management [77]. 3.3 Taking Profits - For put option selling, the core of taking profits is to balance the realized time value gain and potential risk. Time value decay take - profit is a basic strategy, and the implied volatility should also be considered [84]. - For call option buying, taking profits based on the target price of the underlying and technical analysis is a basic strategy. The implied volatility should also be monitored, especially in event - driven trading [88]. 3.4 Setting Stop - Losses - For call option buying, the key to risk management is to control the scale of the premium at the beginning, as the maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. - For put option selling, pre - investment and in - investment risk control and stop - loss strategies are crucial. This includes position size management, contract screening, dynamic management of Greek letters, and sensitivity analysis and stress testing. In the investment process, a dynamic protection system should be established, including price trigger mechanisms, implied volatility monitoring, and dynamic hedging of Greek letter risks [92]. 4. Characteristics of Greek Letters of Common Options Combinations Option combination strategy investors should manage the multi - factor risk exposure of their positions before opening positions and during the holding period, as some Greek letters of option combination strategies may be overlooked [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economic data shows resilience, but inflation expectations are rising, and the future inflation pressure still faces upward risks. The short - term gold price is in a weak shock, and the US dollar index is in a high - level shock. The Chinese stock market may continue to rise in the short - term, but there are risks of high - level fluctuations. The prices of various commodities have different trends, with some expected to be in a shock pattern, some to rise, and some to fall [14][18][21] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the US in August was 58.6, lower than expected. The 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations increased. The retail sales in July rebounded as expected, and the previous value was revised upward. The short - term gold price is in a weak shock, and investors should pay attention to the callback risk [13][14][15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - Trump and Putin met, and EU and NATO leaders will go to Washington. The US - Russia talks did not reach an agreement. The US may put pressure on Ukraine for "territory for peace". The US dollar index is expected to be in a high - level shock [16][18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's economic data in July declined. The stock market's upward trend deviated from the economic fundamentals slightly. It may continue to rise in the short - term, but there are risks of high - level fluctuations. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [20][21][22] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US consumer confidence declined, inflation expectations rose, and the economy showed a slight stagflation trend. The Fed's future interest - rate cut rhythm is uncertain. The market risk preference is supported, but the risk of inflation rebound may increase market volatility [24][25][26] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's economic data in July declined comprehensively. The demand is weak, and the bond market environment is not optimistic. If the stock market rises rapidly, the interest - rate center may rise. It is recommended to pay attention to short - hedging strategies [27][28][29] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in Beigang was stable on August 15. The coal price is expected to enter the seasonal off - season, and attention should be paid to the downward space and its impact on market sentiment [30][31][32] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The production of India's NMDC in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 increased significantly. The iron ore price is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short - term, and the iron water may decline slightly [33][34][36] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia confiscated 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm oil plantations, and the export of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 15 increased by 16.5%. The palm oil price is expected to continue to rise, and it is recommended to go long. The international soybean oil price is affected by policies, and the domestic soybean oil price is expected to rise [37][38] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - NOPA members' soybean crushing volume in July reached a six - month high. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant. Attention should be paid to Sino - US relations and US soybean production areas' weather [39][41] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - India's cotton inventory and demand in the 2024/25 season increased. Brazil's cotton production was slightly adjusted down. The new - year US cotton export signing was okay, but the overall progress was slow. The short - term cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock, and the Zhengzhou cotton price may be in a strong shock in the short - term but not optimistic in the fourth quarter [42][43][46] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's port sugar waiting to be shipped decreased. The sugar production in the central and southern regions decreased slightly, but the sugar - making ratio reached a new high. The international sugar price is expected to be in a weak shock in the short - term, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be in a shock pattern, with the 1 - month contract suitable for buying on dips [47][50][52] 3.2.7 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Korean steel mills applied for an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese steel products. China's steel production in July decreased year - on - year, and real estate investment declined. The steel price is expected to be in a weak shock, and attention should be paid to the actual demand [53][54][57] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The cassava starch inventory is high and difficult to reduce. The starch supply - demand is weak. The CS09 - C09 spread is affected by different factors at different times [58][59] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions increased slightly. The corn inventory is not loose. The 11 and 01 contracts may have a downward space, and attention can be paid to the 11 - 3 reverse spread [60] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Two batches of alumina in Western Australia were traded. The alumina industry profit is good, and the supply is slowly increasing, with the futures price under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [61][62] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Shanghai nickel futures inventory increased. The macro - environment has uncertainties, and the nickel market supply and demand have different characteristics. Different strategies can be considered for different time horizons [63][64][65] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Antofagasta expects its medium - term copper production to increase by more than 30%. The LME promotes market structure reform. The macro - factors support the copper price in stages, but there are risks of repetition. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread [66][67][68] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sigma Lithium's lithium production increased in the second quarter, and the cost decreased. The lithium carbonate price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold long positions and pay attention to buying on dips [69][70] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - There are rumors of a shortage and price increase of photovoltaic components. The polysilicon inventory increased, and the production is expected to rise. The short - term price is expected to be in a shock pattern, and different strategies can be considered for long and short positions [71][73][74] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang increased slightly. The overall supply and demand are in a state of de - stocking, but there are uncertainties. It is recommended to go long on dips [75][76] 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread is at a discount. The lead supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [77][78] 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread is at a discount. The external market has structural risks, and the domestic market is in a state of inventory accumulation. Different strategies can be considered for different trading angles [79] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price decreased slightly. The carbon price is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short - term [80][81] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs increased. Trump said not to impose tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil for the time being. The short - term oil price is expected to be in a range - bound shock [82][83][84] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The caustic soda market is expected to be in a shock pattern [85][86] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp market is mostly stable, and the short - term pulp price is expected to be in a shock pattern [87][88] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market is in a weak adjustment. The PVC price is expected to be in a shock pattern [89] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX market is in a light trading atmosphere. The PX price is expected to be in a shock adjustment in the short - term [90][91][92] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis is stable. The PTA price is expected to be in a shock adjustment in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the demand change from the off - season to the peak season [92][93][94] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export price is stable with a slight increase. The bottle chip price follows the polyester raw materials' price, and the industry's production reduction effect is gradually emerging [95][96][98] 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in South China is weak and stable. The soda ash price is expected to have large fluctuations, and investors should manage their positions well [99] 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price in Hubei decreased. The glass price is expected to be in a shock pattern, and it is recommended to focus on arbitrage operations [100] 3.2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The US container imports in July increased sharply. The container freight rate is expected to continue to decline, and the previous 10 - month short positions can be held,，and attention should be paid to the National Day empty - flight situation [101][103][104]