Report Title - "Commodity Options Weekly Report: Week 33 of 2025" [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The activity level of the commodity options market in the week from August 11 - 15, 2025, was basically flat compared to the previous week. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively - traded varieties [2][9] - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance this week, with the energy - chemical and non - ferrous sectors mainly rising. Attention should be paid to risks and opportunities based on factors such as price fluctuations, implied volatility, and market sentiment [3][17][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume was 8.81 million lots, with a week - on - week increase of 4.19%, and the average daily open interest was 10.2 million lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 18.19% [2][5][9] - Actively - traded varieties in terms of average daily trading volume included glass (1.07 million lots), soda ash (1.06 million lots), and soybean meal (0.6 million lots) [2][5][9] - Five varieties had trading volume growth of over 100%, with significant growth in synthetic rubber (+362%), Shanghai tin (+265%), and apples (+108%). Meanwhile, polycrystalline silicon (-77%), industrial silicon (-66%), and urea (-53%) had obvious trading volume declines [2][9] - Varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal (1.07 million lots), glass (0.96 million lots), and soda ash (0.87 million lots). Synthetic rubber (+58%), Shanghai tin (+37%), and p - xylene (+37%) had rapid week - on - week growth in average daily open interest [2][9] 3.2 This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review 3.2.1 Underlying Price Fluctuations - There were 28 varieties with weekly gains, including lithium carbonate (+12.92%), palm oil (+5.11%), and soda ash (+4.73%); 23 varieties had weekly losses, including methanol (-2.55%), eggs (-2.30%), and logs (-1.87%) [3][17] 3.2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of some commodity options varieties rebounded this week, with 23 varieties having current implied volatility above the 50th percentile of the past year. High - implied - volatility varieties included corn starch, eggs, logs, etc., and short - volatility opportunities were recommended. Low - implied - volatility varieties included non - ferrous metals, precious metals, plastics, etc., where buying options had a higher cost - performance ratio [3][17] 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - Varieties such as p - xylene, bottle chips, and soybean meal had a high volume PCR, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. Glass, rubber, soda ash, and rapeseed oil had a low volume PCR, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment [3][18] - P - xylene, lithium carbonate, and soda ash had a high open - interest PCR, indicating a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment. Nickel, logs, sugar, and rubber had a low open - interest PCR, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [3][18] 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be accessed on the Dongzheng Finoview official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the non - ferrous and precious metals sector, copper, aluminum, lead, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy are bullish; tin, alumina, and gold are bearish; and zinc, nickel, etc. are range - bound. In the black and shipping sector, the black series is in a full - scale shock, while European line container shipping is independently bullish. In the energy and chemical sector, LPG and 20 - gauge rubber are strongly bullish, some are bullish, and others are mainly in shock. In the agricultural products sector, palm oil, sugar, and jujubes are bullish, soybean meal is mainly in shock, and the corn series is bearish [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Copper, aluminum, lead, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy show bullish signals; tin, alumina, and gold show bearish signals; and the rest are mainly in shock [10][11]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Bullish varieties are above the pivot point, and short - term long positions can be arranged if the support is not broken. Bearish varieties are under pressure at the pivot point, and short - term short positions can be considered when rebounding to the resistance with volume. Volatile varieties need to be vigilant against breakthrough risks [15][18]. 3.2 Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: The black sector is mainly in shock, and the shipping sector shows bullish signals [22][23]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: The black series is in a full - scale shock, and European line container shipping is independently bullish. Coal and coke varieties need to be vigilant against wide - range fluctuations, and the shock pattern may be broken if the boundary is broken [30]. 3.3 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: 20 - gauge rubber, synthetic rubber, and caustic soda show bullish signals, and the rest are mainly in shock [34][35]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: LPG and 20 - gauge rubber are strongly bullish. Bullish varieties are dominant above the pivot point, and the chemical sector is in shock. Soda ash is in wide - range shock and can be operated in the short - term range [42]. 3.4 Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Palm oil, sugar, and jujubes show bullish signals, soybean meal is mainly in shock, and corn and corn starch show bearish signals [46][47][49]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Palm oil, sugar, and jujubes are bullish. The bean and oil varieties are generally in shock, and the corn series is mainly bearish [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices rebounded strongly, with significant increases in the closing prices of LC2509 and LC2511 contracts and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate. The price of lithium hydroxide also continued to rise [2][11]. - After the suspension of production at Jianxiaowo on August 9th, the market shifted from expected trading to real - time trading, and the balance sheet for the third quarter will turn into a de - stocking phase. In August, the market is in a tight balance, while the gap will widen in September. Longer - term production suspension will significantly narrow the annual surplus [3][12]. - The supply - side disturbances are not completely resolved, and there are concerns about potential production cuts in other projects in Qinghai and Jiangxi. On the demand side, the third - quarter is characterized by "off - season not so off", with the production of cells and materials increasing monthly driven by energy - storage demand. In the short term, prices are expected to remain strong. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, look for opportunities to go long on dips, and avoid mid - term short positions for now [3][13][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Supply Disturbances Not Fully Resolved, Downstream Buying Interest Gradually Released - From August 11th to 15th, lithium salt prices rebounded strongly. The closing price of LC2509 increased by 13.4% to 86,900 yuan/ton, and that of LC2511 increased by 12.9% to 86,900 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 15% to 82,700 and 80,400 yuan/ton respectively. The average prices of SMM coarse - particle and micron - powder battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 12% to 74,000 and 79,000 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - After the production suspension at Jianxiaowo on August 9th, the market moved from expected trading to real - time trading, with a 13% increase in the week. The production loss will lead to de - stocking in the third - quarter balance sheet. In August, the market is in a tight balance, and the gap will widen in September. Longer - term suspension will narrow the annual surplus. After the actual production cut, downstream purchasing interest recovered, and the acceleration of SMM price adjustments and the narrowing of the basis and monthly long - term contract spread stimulated downstream buying [12]. 3.2 Week - to - Week Industry News Review - In July, China's power - battery loading volume was 55.9GWh, a 4.0% month - on - month decrease but a 34.3% year - on - year increase. Among them, ternary battery loading volume was 10.9GWh (19.6% of the total, up 1.9% month - on - month and down 3.8% year - on - year), and lithium iron phosphate battery loading volume was 44.9GWh (80.4% of the total, down 5.3% month - on - month and up 49.0% year - on - year) [15]. - CATL's Yichun project suspended mining operations after the mining license expired on August 9th and is applying for a renewal. The impact on the company's overall operations is small [15]. - US - based Piedmont Lithium's North American Lithium (NAL) set a new production record in the second quarter, producing 58,500 tons of lithium concentrate and shipping about 67,200 tons. Piedmont expects lithium - spodumene shipments to reach 113,000 - 125,000 tons by 2025 [15]. - The Lithium Industry Branch issued an initiative to strengthen upstream - downstream cooperation, maintain industrial safety, and promote the high - quality development of the lithium industry [16]. - Sigma Lithium's lithium production increased by 38% in the second quarter, and the total sustaining cash cost decreased by 24% year - on - year. However, the total sales volume decreased by 23%, and the net loss widened [16]. 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Rebound - The spot average price of lithium - spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 21.0% to 940 US dollars/ton [12]. 3.3.2 Lithium Salts: The Market Rebounds Strongly Again - The closing prices of lithium - carbonate futures contracts, including LC2509 and LC2511, and spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate all increased significantly [11][12]. - The price of lithium hydroxide continued to rise, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate widened [11]. 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediate Products: Quotes Slightly Rebound - The prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt - acid lithium all increased to varying degrees [12]. 3.3.4 Terminal: China's New - Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate Slightly Increased in July - In July, China's new - energy vehicle penetration rate slightly increased, and the power - battery loading volume showed certain changes in structure and scale [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index futures market is in an upward trend, with electronics and non - bank finance contributing to the rise of major indices. The basis of each variety has strengthened significantly, and trading volume has increased month - on - month. For bond futures, the IRR of bond futures has declined this week, and the inter - period spread has been oscillating strongly. The commodity market has seen the profitability of term structure and trend momentum factors weaken, while volatility, term basis, and warehouse receipt factors have performed well [3][55][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Quantitative Strategy Tracking - **Market Review**: The market is on an upward trend. Electronics and non - bank finance contribute to the rise of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 indices, while electronics and power equipment contribute to the rise of CSI 1000 index. The basis of each variety has strengthened significantly, and trading volume has increased month - on - month. IC and IM remain in a contango state [3]. - **Basis Strategy Recommendation**: Due to market sentiment, the basis of each variety has strengthened significantly. In the case of increased market volatility, the impact of market sentiment on the basis increases. For inter - period positive spreads, beware of the risk of large - scale fluctuations in the basis of far - month contracts caused by market speculation. The inter - period momentum signal recommends IC inter - period positive spreads, and the IM inter - period signal turns to reverse spreads. The roll - over strategy recommends holding near - month contracts to avoid short - term basis fluctuations caused by market conditions [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy Tracking**: In the inter - period arbitrage strategy, the net value of the strategy last week showed mixed results. The annualized basis rate factor made a profit of 0.8%, while the positive spread and momentum factors lost 1.6% and 1.4% respectively (6 - times leverage). The annualized basis rate factor mostly gave reverse spread signals. The net value of the inter - variety arbitrage time - series synthetic strategy lost 0.5% last week, with losses mainly contributed by IF/IH and IC/IM pairings, and the IC/IF pairing made a profit. The latest inter - variety signal recommends a 100% position to go long on IC and short on IF, and a 50% position to go long on IM and short on IC [4]. - **Timing Strategy Tracking**: All models of the daily timing strategy lost last week. The single - factor equal - weight, OLS, and XGB models made a profit of 0.1%, lost 1.6%, and lost 0.8% respectively. The latest signal of the timing model shows that the bullish signal has strengthened. The XGB model is bullish on CSI 300 and CSI 500, and bearish on SSE 50 and CSI 1000. The OLS model is bullish on SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500, and bearish on CSI 1000 [5]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Quantitative Strategy - **This Week's Strategy Focus**: In terms of basis and inter - period spreads, the IRR of bond futures has declined this week, and the inter - period spread has been oscillating strongly. The subsequent positive spread space is limited, and the inter - period spread is expected to oscillate. The interest rate timing signal predicts an upward interest rate, and it is recommended to choose high - duration varieties for hedging. The multi - factor timing strategy signal is neutral. The inter - variety arbitrage strategy signals for TS - T and T - TL are both bullish. The credit bond neutral strategy currently holds the 1 - 3 - year index with reduced duration and hedges with treasury bond futures [55]. 3.3 Commodity CTA Factor and Tracking Strategy Performance - **Commodity Factor Performance**: Last week, the domestic commodity market generally continued the previous week's trend. The number of rising and falling futures products was basically half and half, and the overall risk preference slightly increased. The profitability of term structure and trend momentum factors continued to weaken and declined slightly last week. The best - performing factors were volatility, term basis, and warehouse receipt factors. In the short term, pay attention to the callback of CTA strategy returns caused by trend reversals [77]. - **Tracking Strategy Performance**: Different strategies have different performance indicators. For example, the CWFT strategy has an annualized return of 9.3%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.58, a Calmar ratio of 1.06, a maximum drawdown of - 8.81%, a return of 0.39% in the recent week, and a return of 1.44% since this year [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Volatile [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - London gold dropped 1.8% to $3,336 per ounce. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.32%, inflation expectation was 2.38%, and the real interest rate rebounded to 1.93%. The US dollar index fell 0.33% to 97.8, the S&P 500 index rose 0.94%, the RMB showed a volatile trend, and the discount of Shanghai gold narrowed [2] - After the US officially announced no additional tariffs on gold, the price difference between London gold and New York gold quickly converged, leading to a weakening of global gold prices. The market returned to trading based on fundamental data. US inflation has room to continue rising, and the Fed is in a dilemma on monetary policy. The current data supports a 25bp interest rate cut. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [3] - Geopolitical factors did not bring incremental positive news, and the Trump-Putin talks did not reach an agreement but did not deteriorate either [4] - In the short term, the gold price remains in a range-bound state, with resistance formed around $3,400. Short-term gold prices need to be cautious about correction risks [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gold High-Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The basis of the domestic market (spot - futures) was -2.71 yuan/gram, a week-on-week change of 1.82 yuan or -40.2%. The price difference between domestic and foreign futures (domestic - foreign) was -5.09 yuan/gram, a week-on-week change of 5.70 yuan or -52.8%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 36,345 kilograms, a week-on-week increase of 300 kilograms or 0.8%. The COMEX gold inventory was 38,636,332 ounces, a week-on-week increase of 51,345 ounces or 0.13%. The SPDR ETF's gold holding was 965.36 tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.72 tons or 0.60%. The CFTC's net long position in gold speculation was 154,226 contracts, a week-on-week decrease of 7,585 contracts or -4.7% [12] 2. Financial Market Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US dollar index fell 0.33% to 97.8, and the US Treasury yield was 4.32%. The S&P 500 index rose 0.94%, and the VIX index dropped to 15. The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.34%. Oil prices fell 0.1%, and US inflation expectation was 2.38% [16][19] 2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets all rose, with the S&P 500 rising 0.94%. Most developing country stock markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.7%. The real interest rate rebounded to 1.93%, and the gold price fell 1.8%. The spot commodity index declined, and the US dollar index fell. US and German bonds rose, with a US - German yield spread of 1.53%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.69%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.57%. The euro appreciated 0.52%, the pound sterling appreciated 0.75%, the yen appreciated 0.37%, and the Swiss franc appreciated 0.19%. The US dollar index fell 0.33% to 97.8, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [24][25][29] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The net long position in gold speculation dropped to 154,000 contracts, and the SPDR Gold ETF's holding rebounded to 965 tons. The RMB showed a volatile trend, and the discount of Shanghai gold narrowed. Gold and silver prices corrected, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 87.8 [34][36] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: US NAHB Housing Market Index - Tuesday: US July new home starts and building permits - Wednesday: China's August LPR - Thursday: France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US August manufacturing PMI; Fed monetary policy minutes - Friday: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (August 21 - 23) [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock indices is "oscillation" [1][4] 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market is at a high level, and attention should be paid to the risks after the amplification of volatility. The macro - fundamentals deviate from the rising stock market. The "front - running" of the A - share market has gradually turned into a "deviation". With few relatively low - valued sectors in the A - share market and increasing retail capital inflows, there is a need to watch out for potential market bubbles. Currently, risks outweigh opportunities [2][10] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 One - Week View and Overview of Key Macro Events - **Next - week View**: The stock market is at a high level, and attention should be paid to the risks after the amplification of volatility. The macro - fundamentals deviate from the rising stock market, and the "front - running" of the A - share market has turned into a "deviation" [10] - **This - week Key Events**: - On August 11, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited public opinions on the implementation regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law. Many listed companies planned to invest idle funds in the securities market [11][12] - On August 12, China and the US announced a 90 - day suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs. Multiple departments issued policies on consumer loan and service industry business loan interest subsidies [13][14][16] - On August 13, China's M1 growth rate in July reached 5.6%, and 188 billion yuan of special ultra - long - term treasury bond funds for equipment renewal was fully allocated [17][18] - On August 14, a new K - type visa was added for foreign young scientific and technological talents [19] - On August 15, most of China's economic data in July fell short of expectations. The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report emphasized balanced development [20][22] 3.2 One - Week Market Overview - **Global Stock Market Weekly Overview**: From August 11 - 15, the global stock market denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index increased by 1.22%, with emerging markets (+1.49%) > frontier markets (+1.42%) > developed markets (+1.19%). Japan's stock market led the global rise with a 3.99% increase, while Saudi Arabia's stock market had the worst performance, falling 0.65% [23] - **Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview**: Chinese equity assets rose significantly. A - shares > Chinese concept stocks > Hong Kong stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.1022 trillion yuan, a 405.6 - billion - yuan increase from last week. Most indices rose by over 1%, with the ChiNext Index rising 8.58%, while the micro - cap stock index fell 0.75% [26] - **Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets**: Most global GICS primary industries rose. The leading industry was materials (+4.15%), and the underperforming industry was healthcare (-0.44%). In the Chinese market, materials led the rise (+3.53%), and healthcare led the decline (-0.72%) [29] - **Weekly Overview of Chinese A - share Citic Primary Industries**: Among Chinese A - share Citic primary industries, 22 rose (28 last week) and 8 fell (2 last week). The leading industry was comprehensive finance (+7.07%), and the industry with the largest decline was banking (-3.22%) [30] - **Weekly Overview of Chinese A - share Styles**: The growth style outperformed the value style, and the small - cap style was dominant [35] - **Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis**: Information on the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past six months was presented [40][41] 3.3 Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - **Broad - based Index Valuation**: Valuation data such as PE and PB of various broad - based indices were provided, along with their eight - year percentile and changes since the beginning of the year [43] - **Primary Industry Valuation**: Valuation data such as PE and PB of various primary industries were provided, along with their eight - year percentile and changes since the beginning of the year [44] - **Broad - based Index Equity Risk Premium**: The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 declined rapidly this week [45][50] - **Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast for Broad - based Indices**: The expected earnings growth rates of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 in 2025 were adjusted downwards, while those in 2026 were adjusted upwards [51] 3.4 Liquidity and Fund Flow Tracking - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year and 1 - year bond yields rose, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 98, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.19 [59] - **Tracking of Trading - type Funds**: The average daily northbound trading volume increased by 64 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 45.7 billion yuan [61] - **Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs**: The share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 increased by 400 million, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 increased by 180 million, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 1.2 billion, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 1.6 billion [65][67] 3.5 Tracking of Domestic Macro High - frequency Data - **Supply Side**: The coking plant operating rate rebounded [70] - **Consumption Side**: Real estate transactions remained sluggish, but the year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales rebounded, and the crude oil price dropped to around $68 per barrel [78][87] - **Inflation Observation**: The prices of production materials rebounded from a low level, while agricultural product prices reached a new low for the year [89][90]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core Views of the Report - The market risk preference remains high, with most stock markets rising and most bond yields increasing. The US inflation is higher than expected, and the US dollar index is oscillating at a high level. The market will continue to play the game around economic data, and stock market volatility will increase. It is expected that the market risk preference will continue to rise, and the US dollar index will oscillate at a high level. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine situation needs to be continuously observed [9][36] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - The market risk preference remains high. Most stock markets rise, and most bond yields increase. The yield of US Treasury bonds rises to 4.32%. The US dollar index drops 0.33% to 97.8. Non-US currencies show mixed performance. The price of gold drops 1.8% to $3,336 per ounce. The VIX index drops to 15. The spot commodity index closes down, and the price of Brent crude oil drops 0.1% to $67.8 per barrel [9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rise, including both US and Chinese A-share markets. The S&P 500 index rises 0.94%, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 1.7%, the Hang Seng Index rises 1.65%, and the Nikkei 225 index rises 3.73%. The market returns to trading based on fundamental economic data and continues the game on the expectation of interest rate cuts. The US inflation has room to continue rising, putting monetary policy in a dilemma. The stock market volatility will increase. The domestic stock market reaches a new high, but the fundamental data is weak [10][11] 2.2 Bond Market - The yields of most global bond markets rise, and the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds rises to 4.32%. The yields of most eurozone government bonds rise, and the yields of most emerging market bonds fall. The yield of 10-year Chinese government bonds rises to 1.75%. The domestic bond market remains weak [14][19][23] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index drops 0.33% to 97.8. Non-US currencies show mixed performance. The offshore RMB rises slightly by 0.01%, the euro rises 0.52%, the pound rises 0.75%, the yen rises 0.37%, the Swiss franc rises 0.19%, and the ringgit, rupee, real, and rand appreciate, while the Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar, Korean won, and peso depreciate [26][29] 2.4 Commodity Market - The price of spot gold drops 1.8% to $3,336 per ounce. Gold is in a range-bound state in the short term. The price of Brent crude oil drops 0.1% to $67.8 per barrel. The geopolitical risk gives a certain premium, but the global crude oil demand outlook is not good, and the oil price is difficult to rise continuously. The spot commodity index oscillates and closes down [30][31] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US inflation is higher than expected. The core CPI is 3.1%, and the PPI far exceeds expectations. The impact of tariffs on prices is obvious, and the short-term expectation of interest rate cuts falls. It is expected that a substantial interest rate cut in September is basically impossible, and a moderate interest rate cut is the basic expectation. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is still difficult to end [32][35] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: US NAHB Housing Market Index - Tuesday: US new housing starts and building permits in July - Wednesday: China's LPR in August - Thursday: Manufacturing PMIs of France, Germany, the eurozone, the UK, and the US in August; Federal Reserve interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (August 21 - 23) [37]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Bearish [5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The final anti-dumping ruling on PVC in India has significantly increased the taxes on Chinese PVC enterprises, which will weaken the export competitiveness of Chinese PVC enterprises in the short term and may lead to a significant decline in China's PVC exports on a quarterly basis. However, in the long term, the impact is relatively limited. China's PVC has a strong competitive advantage at low prices, and India cannot find enough alternative sources without affecting the supply and demand in other regions. The anti-dumping policy will reshape the global PVC trade flow, with a significant decrease in China's direct exports to India and a significant increase in exports to non-Indian regions and countries [2][11][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Announcement of the Final Anti-dumping Ruling on PVC in India - On August 14, 2025, India officially announced the final anti-dumping ruling on PVC. Compared with the preliminary ruling, the taxes imposed on Chinese mainland PVC enterprises have been significantly increased, while those on Japan, South Korea, Chinese Taiwan region, and the United States have generally decreased, resulting in significantly higher taxes on Chinese PVC enterprises than those on other countries and regions [1][8] - The tax on Chinese mainland PVC enterprises has increased from $82 - $167 per ton in the preliminary ruling in November 2024 to $122 - $232 per ton in the final ruling in August 2025, a rise of $40 - $65 per ton. The tax on Chinese Taiwan region has decreased from $25 - $163 per ton (Formosa Plastics' tariff was $74 per ton) in the preliminary ruling to $22 - $205 per ton (Formosa Plastics' tariff decreased by $27 per ton to $47 per ton) in the final ruling. The tax on the United States has decreased from $104 - $339 per ton in the preliminary ruling to $72 - $284 per ton in the final ruling, a decrease of $32 - $55 per ton [9] 2. The Short-term and Long-term Impact of the Anti-dumping in India - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative PVC exports reached 1.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 50.7%, accounting for 16.4% of China's total PVC output. Exports to India reached 825,000 tons, accounting for 42.1% of total exports [10] - In the short term, the significantly increased taxes will weaken the export competitiveness of Chinese PVC enterprises and may lead to a significant decline in China's PVC exports on a quarterly basis. In the long term, the impact is relatively limited. The proportion of exports to India has decreased from the highest 50.9% last year to 42.1% this year, indicating that China's PVC has a significant competitive advantage globally, and the export growth rate in non-Indian regions is also considerable. India's PVC production expansion plan is likely to face difficulties due to unstable power supply, and its total PVC imports are not expected to decrease significantly within at least one year. Once India reduces its purchases of Chinese PVC and turns to other countries and regions, it will cause a shortage and price increase in other markets, leading to an increase in China's PVC exports to non-Indian regions [11] 3. Investment Advice - In the short term, the significantly increased taxes on Chinese PVC enterprises may cause a significant decline in China's PVC exports on a quarterly basis, which will worsen the already weak supply and demand situation. In the long term, as the international trade flow is reshaped, China's PVC exports may gradually recover [21] - In terms of strategy, the short-term market may approach the previous low, but in the long term, the policy bottom of PVC has been clarified. If there is a significant decline in the short term, it may provide an opportunity to lay out long positions [3][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although most economic and financial data in July fell short of expectations, the market risk - appetite continued to rise, resulting in weak performance of treasury bonds and a steeper yield curve. The bear - steepening trend of the curve is expected to continue next week [15]. - The stock - bond assets are desensitized to the fundamentals. The rising equity market suppresses the bond market, and this pattern is difficult to change in the short term. The equity market's self - strengthening characteristic will likely lead to continued upward oscillations, putting pressure on long - term bond varieties [16]. - The capital market is relatively balanced, but there is limited room for further loosening in the short term. The capital market cannot effectively offset the negative impact of the rising equity assets, but it will make the upward range of short - term bond interest rates slightly smaller [16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From August 11th to August 17th, treasury bond futures oscillated downward. Various factors such as the less - than - expected loosening of funds, stock market trends, and policy news affected the daily performance of treasury bond futures. As of August 15th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.346, 105.675, 108.325, and 117.660 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.024, - 0.145, - 0.285, and - 1.590 yuan compared to last weekend [13]. 3.1.2 Next Week's View - Next week, the market will be in a data and policy vacuum period. The capital market and the performance of the equity market will dominate the bond market trend. The bear - steepening of the curve is expected to continue. The fundamentals are favorable for the bond market, but the pattern of the rising equity market suppressing the bond market is hard to change in the short term [15][16]. 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 50 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 5556.92 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 3437.94 billion yuan, down 2528.17 billion yuan and 2521.04 billion yuan respectively from last week. 26 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 914.32 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 137.36 billion yuan, down 740.27 billion yuan and 965.84 billion yuan respectively from last week. 455 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance volume of 7760.30 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 1311.10 billion yuan, with a change of + 13.00 billion yuan and - 3075.70 billion yuan respectively from last week [23]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Most treasury bond yields rose. As of August 15th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.58%, 1.74%, and 2.04% respectively, up 0.22, 3.14, 5.02, and 7.70 basis points respectively from last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all widened [27]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures oscillated downward. As of August 15th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.346, 105.675, 108.325, and 117.660 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.024, - 0.145, - 0.285, and - 1.590 yuan compared to last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 44773, 75807, 113721, and 174122 lots respectively, with changes of + 7747, + 10770, + 27453, and + 53719 lots respectively from last weekend. The open interests were 103646, 175683, 235249, and 152407 lots respectively, with changes of - 4559, - 9501, - 727, and - 1348 lots respectively from last weekend [35][38]. 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was not obvious. The capital market was generally loose, the market oscillated weakly, and the futures basis generally oscillated within a narrow range. The IRR of the CTD bonds of each variety's main contract was between 1.4% - 1.8%, and the current certificate of deposit interest rate was between 1.5% - 1.6%. The opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy was relatively limited [42]. 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of August 15th, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2509 - 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.038, + 0.005, + 0.100, and + 0.450 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.028, + 0.060, - 0.005, and + 0.080 yuan respectively from last weekend. The market sentiment of treasury bond futures was weak this week, and the inter - delivery spreads generally oscillated and widened. The T contract was an exception, and its inter - delivery spread mainly oscillated within a narrow range. The bond market is expected to remain weak, and the inter - delivery spreads are expected to continue to oscillate upward [43][44]. 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank conducted 7118 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 11267 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4149 billion yuan. In addition, the central bank also conducted 5000 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations. As of August 15th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.49%, 1.48%, 1.40%, and 1.47% respectively, up 3.21, 3.94, 8.36, and 2.94 basis points respectively from last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 8.15 trillion yuan, 0.04 trillion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 89.82%, slightly lower than last week [48][51][53]. 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index oscillated weakly, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds rose. As of August 15th, the US dollar index fell 0.43% to 97.8467 compared to last weekend's close. The yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.33%, up 6 basis points from last weekend. The spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 259.0 basis points [58]. 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board. As of August 15th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3658.04, 6466.21, and 1687.68 points respectively, up 13.09, 28.42, and 9.95 points respectively from last weekend. Agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of August 15th, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.05, 4.75, and 6.91 yuan/kg respectively, with changes of - 0.36, + 0.11, and - 0.13 yuan/kg respectively from last weekend [61]. 3.7 Investment Suggestions - In the short term, the sentiment in the bond market is weak, and traders should be cautious when betting on rebounds. It is recommended to pay attention to short - hedging strategies, use T or TL for hedging in a strong stock market environment. Also, pay attention to the strategy of steepening the yield curve (such as 10Y - 1Y in the short - to - medium term, long 4TS and short T; long 3T and short TL in the long - term), and moderately pay attention to the strategy of widening the T09 - 12 spread [17][18][19][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [1][5] Core View of the Report - The rumor of Shanxi's ore policy has little impact, and the alumina supply continues to recover slowly. The domestic alumina supply has turned into a slight surplus with the release of复产 and new production capacity, and the generated warehouse receipts put pressure on the futures market. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend [5][15] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Last week, domestic ore prices remained stable. The含税 price of Shanxi 58/5 ore was 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 was 658 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 bauxite's delivered含税 price was 596 yuan/ton. The rumored Shanxi bauxite policy mainly affects mines exploiting bauxite under the guise of ceramic soil, most of which are already shut - down. Henan has strict inspections with low mine operation rates. Southern ports were temporarily closed due to rain and typhoons, reducing imported bauxite unloading. The imported ore price range is 73 - 76 dollars/dry ton. Downstream factories have sufficient ore reserves. The shipping volume from Bofa is decreasing. Newly - arrived ore was 340.7 million tons, including 281 million tons from Guinea and 53.7 million tons from Australia. The Cape ship freight from Guinea to China is 25 dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: Last week, alumina spot prices dropped. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3200 - 3270 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from last week; the domestic weighted index was 3243.3 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. The imported alumina port quotation was 3300 - 3350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere was light. The northern market traded 1.1 million tons of spot alumina, with the weighted trading price at 3197 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The Australian import price was about 3230 yuan/ton. The domestic full cost of alumina was 2810 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 488 yuan/ton. The industry's good profit drives enterprises to increase production. The national alumina production capacity is 11302 million tons, with 9595 million tons in operation, an increase of 60 million tons from last week, and the operation rate is 84.9% [13] - **Demand**: Domestically, Guangxi Baise Yinhai Aluminum's operating capacity increased to 14 million tons, up 2 million tons; Yunnan Honghe New Materials' operating capacity increased to 10 million tons, up 5 million tons. Henan Wanjji Aluminum plans to transfer 58 million tons of capacity to Xinjiang in 2026 and start production in 2027. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 4392.3 million tons, up 7 million tons. Overseas demand remained unchanged, with the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity at 2959 million tons [14] - **Inventory**: As of August 14, the national alumina inventory was 337.5 million tons, up 9 million tons from last week. The inventory at aluminum plants increased, that of alumina enterprises slightly decreased, port inventory fluctuated, and the inventory at delivery warehouses continued to rise [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 65771 tons, up 43807 tons from last week. The domestic futures price was weak. The anti - involution narrative and mine - end disturbances have no substantial impact. The Guinea ore price in the third quarter is about 75 dollars, and the alumina supply has turned slightly surplus, generating warehouse receipts and pressuring the futures [15] 2. Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain This Week - **Limited Impact of Parade - Related Production Restrictions**: Some high - energy - consuming industries in the north received parade - related production restriction notices. Most alumina producers in Shanxi, Shandong, and Hebei did not receive such notices. Only one enterprise in Henan may reduce roasting production around the parade, with no significant impact on medium - term output. Transportation of trucks below National V may be restricted from August 16 [16] - **Two Alumina Transactions in Western Australia**: On August 14, two transactions of a total of 6 million tons of alumina occurred in Western Australia, with the FOB price at 374 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars/ton from August 11, for September - late shipment [16] - **Bidding Results of an Electrolytic Aluminum Plant in Xinjiang**: On August 11, an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang bid for 1 million tons of alumina. The winning price was 3490 - 3530 yuan/ton, with the low - price range down 20 - 40 yuan/ton from last week [17] 3. Monitoring of Key Data Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost End - The section includes charts on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and steam coal prices, and alumina production costs in different provinces [18][21][23][27][29][31] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - The section contains charts on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot price, the ratio of SHFE electrolytic aluminum to alumina futures, and domestic alumina weekly supply - demand balance. The table shows the changes in alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacities and supply - demand differences from April to August 2025 [34][38][40][43] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The section includes charts on alumina inventory at electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/platforms/in - transit, ports, total social inventory, and SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions [46][49][55][56][58]