Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic ore supply has tightened, and the spot price of alumina has risen slightly. The alumina market is currently in a state of slight oversupply, and short - term price trends are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to approach it with an oscillatory mindset in the short term [1][15] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In Shanxi, Shandong, and Guizhou, the prices of different - grade bauxite were stable. In Shanxi, inspections continued, and in Henan, rainfall limited mining, leading to supply shortages and firm prices. In Guangxi, illegal mining inspections were strengthened. Imported bauxite long - term agreement prices were between $74 - 75 per dry ton, and shipments might decrease in the second half of the third quarter. Newly - arrived ore was 4.436 million tons, with 3.555 million tons from Guinea and 0.594 million tons from Australia. The shipping cost from Guinea to China dropped to $18.5 per ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina rose slightly last week. In the domestic market, the ALD northern comprehensive price and the domestic weighted index increased. The import port price remained flat. Market transactions were average. Overseas, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Western Australia. The domestic alumina production capacity increased slightly, with a construction capacity of 112.92 million tons, an operating capacity of 93.55 million tons (up 400,000 tons from last week), and an operating rate of 82.9% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, Guizhou Huangguoshu Aluminum increased production by 20,000 tons to 100,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 44.103 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas demand remained unchanged, with an electrolytic aluminum operating capacity of 29.571 million tons [13] - **Inventory**: As of July 3, the national alumina inventory was 3.162 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last week. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises' alumina inventory increased, with different inventory trends among various entities. Alumina enterprises' inventory was at a low level, port inventory fluctuated significantly, and delivery inventory decreased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: There were 21,314 tons of registered alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, a decrease of 9,005 tons from last week. The domestic futures price oscillated last week. The bauxite price in Guinea was stable in the third quarter, and the domestic alumina supply was slightly in surplus, suppressing the price. It is recommended to view alumina from an oscillatory perspective in the short term [15] 2. Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain during the Week - On July 5, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in East Australia at a FOB price of $363 per ton from Gladstone Port for shipping in early August [16] - On July 4, 10,000 tons of alumina were traded in Guangxi at an ex - factory price of 3,250 yuan per ton. Supply in the local market was tight due to production cuts and maintenance [16] - On July 2, 300 tons of alumina were traded in Henan at an ex - factory price of 3,150 yuan per ton, purchased by a trader for delivery to a northwest aluminum plant [16] 3. Monitoring of Key Data for the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: This section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in different provinces [17][19][24] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [31][33][39] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It involves the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina in storage/on the platform/in transit, port inventory, total social inventory, and the quantity and holding volume of alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [41][44][49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices showed a strong and oscillating trend. The closing price of LC2507 increased by 0.7% month - on - month to 63,700 yuan/ton, and the closing price of LC2509 remained flat at 63,300 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.9% month - on - month to 62,300 and 60,700 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide continued to be weak. The average prices of SMM coarse - grained and micronized battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.7% and 0.6% month - on - month to 57,600 and 62,700 yuan/ton respectively. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate widened by 0.2 yuan to 0.47 yuan/ton [2][12][13] - Driven by the difference in demand expectations, the center of the futures market has risen from 59,000 yuan to around 63,000 yuan. Last week, prices oscillated and adjusted, and the rigid procurement demand of downstream enterprises was gradually released, which confirmed the better - than - expected production schedule. During the rebound, the price of lithium ore increased rapidly, but the profit of the lithium salt processing link remained around the break - even point. Looking forward, domestic salt plants are in a state of both maintenance and resumption of production, and domestic production may still increase slightly month - on - month. However, the shipments from Chile and Argentina remain low, so the overall supply pressure is limited. The focus of market game may still be on the demand side. It is necessary to dynamically confirm the actual demand based on the trading situation in the spot market. In terms of strategies, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of buying on dips and positive spreads, and patiently wait for a more suitable time to arrange medium - term short positions [4][18][19] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chile's Shipment in June Remained Low, and the Market Competed for the Actual Quality of Apparent Demand - In June, Chile exported a total of 17,000 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, remaining flat month - on - month and decreasing by 26% year - on - year. Among them, the export to China was 10,200 tons, increasing by 5.9% month - on - month and decreasing by 41% year - on - year. The shipments have remained low for two consecutive months, corresponding to the alleviation of China's import pressure in July - August. From January to June, Chile exported a total of 126,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export to China was 83,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. In terms of lithium sulfate, in June, Chile shipped 7,700 tons (3,800 tons of LCE) of lithium sulfate to China, a month - on - month decrease of 21% and a year - on - year increase of 2404%. From January to June, the total shipment of lithium sulfate to China was 44,700 tons (22,400 tons of LCE), a year - on - year increase of 172% [3][13] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of the remaining 40% equity of Mali Lithium. The first - phase annual production capacity of the Goulamina lithium spodumene project in Mali is 506,000 tons of lithium concentrate, and the production capacity is gradually being released [20] - Kodal Minerals signed a purchase agreement for lithium spodumene concentrate from the Bougouni lithium project in southern Mali. The first - phase project has an annual production capacity of 100,000 - 120,000 tons of lithium concentrate [20] - In June, Chile's export of lithium carbonate to China increased slightly. Considering the shipping cycle, the goods are expected to arrive at Chinese ports in July - August [21] - Zangge Mining's subsidiary obtained the construction project construction permit for the Mamilcuo mining project [21] - Qinghai Huixin's 20,000 - ton/year lithium carbonate project was successfully commissioned, and it can produce about 15 tons of qualified products per day [22] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: The Spot Quote of Lithium Concentrate Rebounded - The spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased from 629 US dollars/ton to 653 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.8% [13] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: The Futures Market Oscillated at a High Level - The closing prices of LC2507 and LC2509 showed different trends, and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The price of lithium hydroxide continued to be weak, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate widened [2][12][13] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Rebounded - The prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed different degrees of slight increases or remained flat [13] 3.3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles in China Rebounded in May - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China rebounded in May, and the installed capacity and production and sales of power batteries also showed certain trends [46][51][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity options market showed increased activity this week, with significant growth in both trading volume and open interest. Traders are advised to focus on actively - traded varieties for potential market opportunities [1][7]. - This week, most underlying futures of commodity options rose. Some commodities saw a significant increase in implied volatility, and different strategies are recommended based on high - and low - volatility varieties. The PCR indicators reflect different market sentiment for various commodities, and investors should pay attention to the corresponding risks [2][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - From June 28 to July 4, 2025, the average daily trading volume of the commodity options market was 6.82 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 9.86 million lots, with a week - on - week increase of 31.43% and 14.86% respectively [1][7]. - Actively - traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume included industrial silicon (780,000 lots), glass (770,000 lots), and soda ash (750,000 lots). There were 8 varieties with a trading volume increase of over 100%, such as polysilicon (+332%), industrial silicon (+227%), and glass (+116%). The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were p - xylene (-96%), synthetic rubber (-70%), and tin (-61%) [1][7]. - In terms of open interest, the varieties with high average daily open interest were soda ash (1.1 million lots), glass (930,000 lots), and soybean meal (890,000 lots). The variety with a rapid week - on - week increase in average daily open interest was polysilicon (+121%) [1][7]. 3.2 This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Movements**: Most underlying futures of commodity options rose this week. The varieties with high weekly increases were industrial silicon (+6.59%), caustic soda (+2.63%), and rebar (+2.57%), while the variety with a high decline was red dates (-2.34%) [2][15]. - **Market Volatility**: Affected by the "anti - involution", the implied volatility of some commodities increased significantly this week, but 39 varieties still had their current implied volatility below the historical 50th percentile. High - volatility varieties included industrial silicon, eggs, and red dates, and investors were advised to beware of one - sided risks and consider short - volatility opportunities. Low - volatility varieties included iron ore, rebar, and vegetable oils, and industrial customers could consider insurance strategies due to the low option - buying prices [2][15]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of varieties such as red dates was at a historical high, indicating a strong short - term bearish sentiment and the need to pay attention to the risk of underlying price corrections. The trading volume PCR of nickel, methanol, ethylene glycol, and styrene was at a historical low, showing a concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and cotton was at a historical high, indicating a high - level accumulated bearish sentiment, while the open interest PCR of copper, nickel, styrene, LPG, and soda ash was at a historical low, indicating an accumulated bullish sentiment [2][15]. 3.3 Main Varieties Key Data Overview This chapter mainly presents the key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data for more varieties can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fancy Micro official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19]. 3.3.1 Energy No specific data analysis is provided in the text, only chart references are given, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil [20][22][23]. 3.3.2 Chemicals - **PTA**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of PTA [27][28][35]. - **Caustic Soda**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of caustic soda [37][38][39]. - **Glass**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of glass [43][44][45]. - **Soda Ash**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soda ash [51][52][53]. 3.3.3 Precious Metals The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silver [57][61][58]. 3.3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of iron ore [64][65][70]. - **Silicomanganese**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silicomanganese [72][73][74]. 3.3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of copper [80][81][85]. - **Alumina**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of alumina [88][89][91]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soybean meal [97][99]. - **Palm Oil**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of palm oil [103][104][105]. - **Cotton**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of cotton [111][112][113].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [4] Core View of the Report - This week, global stock markets rebounded, and market risk appetite strengthened. Chinese equity assets showed significant differentiation, with A-shares performing better than Hong Kong stocks. The logic for Hong Kong stocks is that the HIBOR rate has the potential to rise, suppressing market performance. A-shares have chosen a new theme, anti-involution. Affected by the information from the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting, sectors such as steel and coal in A-shares staged a "capacity reduction" market, with stock prices rising from low levels. The sustainability of the subsequent market remains to be verified. In July, the core variable determining whether the stock market can continue to rise is the disturbance factor of overseas reciprocal tariffs [2][10] Summary According to the Directory 1. One-week View and Overview of Macro Key Events - **Next Week's View**: The high-level oscillation will continue. Chinese equity assets are differentiated, with A-shares outperforming Hong Kong stocks. A-shares focus on the anti-involution theme, and the sustainability of the market depends on overseas reciprocal tariffs [10] - **This Week's Key Events**: - **June 30**: China's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7%, and the three major indices all rebounded. Shanghai's 500 million yuan consumption vouchers were distributed, and the TOP100 real estate enterprises' sales in June decreased by 18.5% year-on-year [11][12][13] - **July 1**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting emphasized governance of low-price disorderly competition and promotion of marine economic development. From January to May, the added value of above-scale electronic information manufacturing increased by 11.1% year-on-year [14][16] - **July 2**: Sichuan Province issued a detailed plan to boost consumption. From January to May, the profits of above-scale Internet and related service enterprises decreased by 2.2% year-on-year. The possibility of a stablecoin pegged to the offshore RMB in Hong Kong was proposed. The 80 billion yuan "two major" project list for this year was fully issued [17][18][20] - **July 3**: The volume of electric bicycle trade-ins reached 6.1 times that of 2024. The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a promotion meeting for the "1+6" policy of the Science and Technology Innovation Board [21][22] - **July 4**: The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development called for greater efforts to stabilize the real estate market. The domestic high temperature drove up the electricity load, setting a new record [24][25] 2. One-week Market Quote Overview - **Global Stock Market Weekly Overview**: From June 30 to July 4, global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index rose 1.2%, with frontier markets (+1.55%) > developed markets (+1.31%) > emerging markets (+0.25%). The Brazilian stock market led the world with a 4.40% increase, while the Swedish stock market had the worst performance, falling 1.6% [26] - **Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview**: Chinese equity assets were differentiated, with A-shares > Chinese concept stocks > Hong Kong stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1441.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 45.3 billion yuan from last week. The micro-cap stock index rose 1.89%, performing the best, while the North Exchange 50 Index fell 1.71%, underperforming the market [29] - **Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets**: Most global GICS primary industries rose this week, with materials leading the way (+2.75%), and telecommunications services performing poorly (-0.40%). In the Chinese market, healthcare led the rise (+3.48%), and information technology underperformed the market (+0.05%) [32] - **Weekly Overview of China A-share CITIC Primary Industries**: Among China A-share CITIC primary industries, 25 rose (29 last week) and 5 fell (1 last week). The steel industry led the rise (+5.27%), and the comprehensive finance industry had the largest decline (-4.45%) [34] - **Weekly Overview of China A-share Styles**: The large-cap value style was dominant. This week, the value style outperformed the growth style, and the market capitalization style was biased towards large-cap [38][39] - **Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis**: Included information on the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months [42][45] 3. Overview of Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast - **Broad-based Index Valuation**: Provided PE and PB data for various broad-based indices this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes, as well as the eight-year percentile [46] - **Primary Industry Valuation**: Presented PE and PB data for various primary industries this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes, as well as the eight-year percentile [47] - **Broad-based Index Equity Risk Premium**: The ERP of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 decreased slightly this week [48][53] - **Broad-based Index Consensus Earnings Growth Rate**: The expected earnings growth rate of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 7.92%, and in 2026 it was adjusted up to 8.08%. For the CSI 500, the 2025 expected earnings growth rate was adjusted down to 32.00%, and the 2026 rate remained flat at 15.37%. For the CSI 1000, the 2025 expected earnings growth rate was adjusted down to 41.87%, and in 2026 it was adjusted up to 17.02% [54] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: This week, the 10Y and 1Y rates decreased, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 96, and the offshore RMB was 7.16 [65] - **Trading Capital Tracking**: This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds decreased by 1.14 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 1.99 billion yuan [63] - **Capital Flow Tracking through ETFs**: There were 29 on-exchange ETFs tracking the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 38 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the shares of ETFs tracking the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 decreased by 2.5 billion, those tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 0.5 billion, those tracking the CSI 1000 decreased by 1.2 billion, and those tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 13.9 billion [68][72] 5. Tracking of Domestic High-frequency Macro Data - **Supply Side**: The tire operating rate decreased [75] - **Consumption Side**: The transaction volume of first-hand houses was weaker than the seasonal level [84] - **Inflation Observation**: The prices of production materials rebounded from a low level, and agricultural product prices flattened at a low level [96][97]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillating" [5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The trading volume of treasury bond futures increased this week, and the long - buying momentum is accumulating. However, due to the potential strength of economic indicators in June and the uncertainty of trade conflicts after the expiration of tariff exemptions, the upward breakthrough of treasury bond futures still needs to wait [1][2][15] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. One - week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From June 30 to July 6, treasury bond futures first declined and then rose. On Monday, due to factors such as the central bank's monetary policy meeting not mentioning reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts, tight liquidity, and strong stock market performance, treasury bond futures fell across the board. In the following days, the market fluctuated with changes in factors like liquidity and the stock market. As of July 4, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.508, 106.250, 109.110, and 121.200 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.038, - 0.015, + 0.040, and + 0.260 yuan compared to last weekend [1][13] 1.2 Next Week's Views - It is expected that the liquidity will remain loose next week, and the long - buying momentum in the bond market will continue to accumulate. However, the 6 - month economic indicators may perform well, and the trade conflict situation after the expiration of tariff exemptions is unclear, so the upward breakthrough of treasury bond futures still needs to wait [15] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - rate Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 47 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 513.219 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 376.579 billion yuan, a decrease of 354.421 billion yuan and 404.073 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 23 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 72.139 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 21.649 billion yuan, a decrease of 569.501 billion yuan and 538.703 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 268 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance volume of 243.710 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 2.080 billion yuan, a decrease of 482.640 billion yuan in total issuance and an increase of 409.380 billion yuan in net financing compared to last week [22][23] 2.2 Secondary Market - The yields of treasury bonds showed a divergent trend. As of July 4, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.35%, 1.49%, 1.64%, and 1.85% respectively, with changes of + 0.34, - 1.63, - 0.23, and + 0.25 basis points compared to last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all widened [29] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose. As of July 4, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.508, 106.250, 109.110, and 121.200 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.038, - 0.015, + 0.040, and + 0.260 yuan compared to last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 31,216, 58,567, 70,281, and 81,784 lots respectively, with changes of + 155, + 2,890, + 7,159, and - 1,609 lots compared to last weekend. The open interests were 125,309, 193,474, 239,903, and 144,038 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,101, + 2,055, + 2,828, and + 4,633 lots compared to last weekend [38][41] 3.2 Basis and IRR - The opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was not obvious this week. The liquidity was generally balanced and loose, and the basis of futures generally fluctuated within a narrow range. The IRR of the CTD bonds of the main contracts of each variety was around 1.8%, and the current certificate of deposit rate was slightly higher than 1.6%, so the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategies was relatively scarce [45] 3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of July 4, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2509 - 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.124, - 0.085, - 0.085, and + 0.130 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.006, - 0.005, - 0.075, and - 0.010 yuan compared to last weekend [48] 4. Weekly Observation of Liquidity - This week, the central bank conducted 652.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 2,027.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,375.3 billion yuan. As of July 4, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.49%, 1.42%, 1.31%, and 1.42% respectively, with changes of - 51.75, - 49.37, - 5.80, and - 24.50 basis points compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 7.60 trillion yuan, 0.18 trillion yuan less than last week, and the overnight proportion was 89.71%, slightly higher than last week [55][57][59] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds increased slightly. As of July 4, the US dollar index fell 0.28% to 96.9880 compared to last weekend; the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds was 4.35%, up 6 basis points compared to last weekend; the spread between Chinese and US 10 - year Treasury bonds was inverted by 270.9 basis points [64] 6. Weekly Observation of High - frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices rose across the board this week. As of July 4, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3,557.51, 6,216.34, and 1,650.47 points respectively, with changes of + 23.65, + 66.00, and + 2.97 points compared to last weekend. Agricultural product prices also generally increased [68] 7. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to adopt a bullish approach. Specific strategies include holding long positions and waiting for price increases, paying attention to the opportunity of cash - and - carry arbitrage in treasury bond futures, and continuing to hold the strategy of steepening the yield curve, with a recommendation of the 2TS - T strategy and using spot bonds for short - term varieties [17][18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core View of the Report - The US economic data in June was slightly better than market expectations, with the non - farm payrolls being stronger than expected, which dispelled the market's expectation of a rate cut in July, and the benchmark expectation is now a rate cut in September. The US will likely impose tariffs of over 10% on trading partners after the 90 - day tariff suspension period expires, which may pressure market risk appetite. The "Big and Beautiful" tax - cut bill passed in the US is positive for the stock market in the short term but will exacerbate the government's debt burden in the long term. The US dollar is expected to have a mid - term downward trend but may show short - term oscillatory movements due to trade uncertainties [2][34] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remained high. Most global stock markets rose, while bond yields showed mixed trends. The US Treasury yield increased to 4.34%. The US dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices rose 1.9% to $3337 per ounce, the VIX index slightly increased to 17.5, the spot commodity index declined, and Brent crude oil rose 2.5% to $70.8 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose. In developed markets, the S&P 500 rose 1.72%, and most euro - zone stock markets closed higher. In emerging markets, all stock markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.4%. However, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.52%, and the Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.85%. The better - than - expected US economic data supported the strength of the US stock market. The US 6 - month non - farm payrolls data was strong, but the ADP employment data was weak, indicating potential pressure on future non - farm payrolls. The Chinese official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in June showed slight rebounds, and the A - share market had high risk appetite and a strengthening index [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields showed mixed trends. The 10 - year US Treasury yield increased to 4.34%, euro - zone government bonds oscillated, and most emerging - market bond yields declined. Due to better - than - expected US economic data and the increase in the government debt ceiling after the tax - cut bill passed, the US Treasury yield is expected to face upward pressure. The UK Treasury yield once rose 15bp due to fiscal issues and then slightly declined. Overall, the downward space for European and American bond yields is limited. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield slightly decreased to 1.645%, and the Sino - US yield spread inversion widened to 270bp, with the domestic bond market showing an oscillatory trend [14][18][19] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.13%, the euro rose 0.52%, the pound fell 0.48%, the yen rose 0.12%, the Swiss franc rose 0.63%, and the peso, real, and rand rose by over 1% [25][26][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Gold prices rose 1.9% to $3337 per ounce. The market focused on the US tariff - imposing progress after the 90 - day tariff suspension period. Tariff risks supported gold, but the price was in an oscillatory range and had not broken through. The US economic data supported the Fed to pause rate cuts, and there was a risk of a short - term pullback. Brent crude oil rose 2.5% to $70.8 per barrel. OPEC+ announced another production increase, and the weak supply - demand situation led to low - level oscillations in oil prices. The domestic industrial product market rebounded due to anti - involution speculation, but there were differences among varieties, and the sustainability was questionable, and the commodity spot index declined [29][30][31] 3. Hot - spot Tracking - The US non - farm payrolls in June were better than expected, with over 140,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The wage growth rate was lower than expected, reducing the upward pressure on core inflation [2][3][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: China's June foreign exchange reserves, euro - zone's June retail sales. - Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia's interest - rate meeting decision, US June NFIB small - business confidence index, and New York Fed's one - year inflation expectation. - Wednesday: China's June CPI, expiration of the US tariff suspension period. - Thursday: Fed's June interest - rate meeting minutes. - Friday: US 30 - year Treasury auction [35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for the dollar is "oscillating" [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US non - farm payrolls in June exceeded expectations, dispelling the expectation of an interest rate cut in July. The employment market remained resilient, but its structure deteriorated. The data supported the Fed to continue to observe cautiously. Market expectations of an interest rate cut cooled further after the data release [1][2][3] - Strong employment data alleviated market concerns about economic downturn and supported market sentiment in the short term. However, the market underestimated the deterioration of the employment market structure, and the subsequent weakening of the employment market might cause disturbances [4][40] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. US June Non - farm Payrolls Situation - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, exceeding the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. The hourly wage growth rate was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year, slightly lower than expected and the previous value [2][9] - In terms of industries, new jobs mainly came from education and healthcare (51,000), leisure and hospitality (20,000), and government departments (73,000). Layoffs increased in some sectors such as professional and business services (7,000), wholesale (6,600), and other services (5,000) [2][18] 2. Investment Advice - The overall strong employment data alleviated market concerns about economic downturn and supported market sentiment in the short term. The market was trading around tariff negotiations and tax cut bills. The implementation of the tax cut bill continued to support market risk appetite. The dollar and US Treasury yields stopped falling and rebounded, US stocks were oscillating strongly, and gold still faced a correction risk [4][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market sentiment remains high, with the ChiNext Index strongly rebounding due to the US - Vietnam trade agreement. The US labor market shows resilience, affecting the Fed's interest - rate decision and the performance of various financial and commodity markets [2][22]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, some metals like lead may see an upward shift in the price oscillation center, while some agricultural products like corn have a strong spot market due to decreasing visible inventory [6][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 6 - month employment report exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The market dispelled the expectation of a July interest - rate cut, and gold is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of decline [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The US has revoked restrictions on China's EDA. The ChiNext Index rebounded strongly due to the US - Vietnam trade agreement. It is recommended to evenly allocate various stock indices to cope with sector rotation [17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The latest non - farm data in June exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate decreasing and new employment exceeding expectations. The US dollar index rebounded significantly. It is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US economic data shows resilience, but there are signs of structural deterioration. The US stock market is oscillating strongly, but attention should be paid to the risks of tariff negotiations and weakening economic data. It is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of a pullback [27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 572 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The Treasury bond futures are expected to be in an oscillating trend, with a higher probability of strengthening in the future. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider buying on dips [28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal is stabilizing. With the resumption of production in Inner Mongolia, supply has increased slightly. High - temperature weather supports coal prices, making it difficult for them to decline during the peak season [30]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Iron ore prices have rebounded, with improved spot trading. Although the molten iron output decreased this period, it is expected to remain stable in July, and port inventory will slightly accumulate. The overall trend is difficult to reverse, but it is expected to remain strong in the short term [33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA weekly export sales report met expectations. There are rumors about a China - US agreement, but China's purchases of US soybeans remain stagnant. The domestic import cost of soybeans has increased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [35]. 3.2.4 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products is basically flat compared with last week. The demand decline due to high - temperature weather is not obvious. Although the current expectation and fundamentals are strong, the external demand risk remains. It is recommended to use a hedging strategy on rallies for the spot [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The main hog futures contract LH2509 has risen rapidly. The fundamental sentiment is strong, driving the spot price to stabilize and rebound. However, the supply in July - August is still relatively large, and the long - short game intensifies. It is recommended to wait for the signal of pressure from hog sales and then short on rallies [43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The demand for starch sugar fails to meet expectations. The consumption of corn decreases, while that of corn starch increases slightly. The starch is expected to continue to reduce production to reduce inventory. The factors affecting the CS - C spread are complex, and the future is uncertain [45]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The visible inventory of corn continues to decline, and the first batch of imported corn auctions had high premiums, supporting the strong spot market. It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts and consider shorting new - crop contracts 11 and 01 on rallies [47]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The global cotton supply is stable, while the demand is uncertain. The trade policy is a major variable. The domestic cotton market is supported by a tight supply of old - crop commercial inventory but is dragged down by the weak downstream industry. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [54]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The short - term supply - demand is weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply - demand in the long term. The price oscillation center may shift upward. It is recommended to buy on dips [55]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The spread between Shanghai and Guangdong has widened, and the domestic inventory has increased. The macro - situation affects the price, and fundamentally, there is an expectation of oversupply in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Policy rumors drive the polysilicon futures price up, but the fundamentals are not optimistic. The price still has downward pressure. It is recommended to stop profiting from the PS2508 - 2509 positive spread due to high policy - related risks [61]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon has increased. The supply side has new changes, and the demand side may be affected by polysilicon production cuts. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [63]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Copper prices are affected by factors such as AI, renewable energy, and tariffs. The US non - farm data affects the dollar index and copper prices. The domestic inventory shows a weak accumulation trend. It is recommended to maintain a long - biased strategy for the short - term high - level oscillation [66]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The cooperation between Fulin Seiko and Chuanfa Longmang is expected to enhance the former's layout in the lithium - battery material industry. The demand in July is better than expected, driving the price up. It is recommended to avoid short - selling in the short term and consider positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [70]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The inventory of LME and SHFE has decreased. The raw - material cost support is weakening, and the supply of nickel is expected to be in surplus. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [73]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemical Industry (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly production of domestic LPG has decreased, and the inventory has also decreased. The fundamentals are weak, and there is no upward price drive [75]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemical Industry (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory has increased. The summer temperature will support the price, and the demand for gas - electricity is expected to decline slightly. The NYMEX is expected to oscillate in the short term [78]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemical Industry (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased slightly, with improved demand and increased supply. The futures price has rebounded, but the rebound height is expected to be limited [80]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemical Industry (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable with a slight decline. The futures price is rising slightly. The market is expected to oscillate due to the weak fundamentals [83]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemical Industry (PVC) - The price of PVC powder is narrowly adjusted. The futures price is oscillating. The inventory is turning from decreasing to increasing, and the subsequent market rise may be limited [85]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemical Industry (Styrene) - The weekly production of styrene has decreased slightly. The supply - demand of pure benzene and styrene has different trends. The future supply - demand of styrene is expected to weaken. It is recommended to pay attention to the release rhythm of Yulong's new capacity [86]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemical Industry (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories has been mostly reduced. The factories plan to cut production in July. If the production cuts are implemented, the inventory pressure will be relieved. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin on dips [88]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemical Industry (Carbon Emissions) - The EU Commission proposes a flexible 2040 climate target, but there are many internal objections. The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate in the short term [90]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemical Industry (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda - ash manufacturers has increased. The market is in a weak adjustment, with high supply and weak demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling strategy on rallies in the medium term [92]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemical Industry (Float Glass) - The inventory of float - glass manufacturers has decreased slightly. The futures price has risen slightly, and the supply - demand pattern has not changed much. It is recommended to consider a long - glass and short - soda - ash cross - commodity arbitrage strategy [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The colored metals sector should be vigilant against short - term trend reversals. Different varieties in the black, agricultural products, and energy - chemical sectors require differentiated risk management strategies, including short - term operations, band trading, and combining with fundamentals [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Colored Metals Sector - **1H25 Colored Metals Sector Technical Rating Review** - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals sector in 1H25 was weak, with significant differentiation among varieties. Traditional industrial metals were relatively resistant to decline, while new energy materials declined sharply. For example, copper and aluminum prices rose, while zinc, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon prices fell [13]. - The technical indicator ratings of copper and aluminum were generally consistent, but the correlation between the rating and actual yield was different. The technical indicators of zinc and lead had a high correlation with yields. For new energy metals, the effectiveness of technical indicator ratings was limited [15][23]. - **Detailed Review of Key Colored Metals Variety - Copper** - **Volume and Open Interest**: The price and volume changes of the Shanghai copper main - continuous contract in the first half of the year can be divided into five trends. Currently, the volume and open interest have rebounded slightly, but the price increase is limited, and it is necessary to wait for further volume signals [39][40][43]. - **MACD**: There were 5 golden cross signals and 3 dead cross signals in the first half of the year. The short - term MACD formed a dead cross signal, and there is a risk of short - term correction. Medium - and long - term operations need to consider the long - term bullish fundamentals [45][46]. - **Oscillating Indicators**: The overall signal effectiveness of oscillating indicators was insufficient. The long - cycle KDJ was more effective in observing large - scale corrections and sudden rebounds, while the CCI had a high failure rate [49][52]. - **Support and Resistance Levels**: The pivot point of Shanghai copper rose steadily, showing a bullish market. However, the resistance levels were "solidified", and the support levels were "moving up". The price was compressed in a box, and the adjustment of support and resistance levels in the third quarter needs to wait for short - term price and volume breakthroughs [53][55]. - **Colored Metals Sector Risk Management Guidelines** - Traditional non - ferrous metals and new energy metals can use technical indicator ratings to capture price risks. For example, for Shanghai aluminum, set stop - loss levels and use put options to hedge against correction risks; for Shanghai zinc, use call options instead of some long positions [61][62]. - Shanghai copper is in a stage of shock consolidation. There is a risk of short - term correction, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risks of downward break - through and false breakthrough. Long - term upward trends need to be confirmed by volume [63][65]. 3.2 Black Metals Sector - **1H25 Black Metals Sector Technical Rating Review** - In the first half of 2025, black metal futures all declined, with coking coal and coke leading the decline. The volatility of coking coal, coke, and iron ore was high, while that of rebar and hot - rolled coil was relatively low [64]. - The pivot point distribution of each variety showed obvious differentiation, with "raw materials > finished products > alloys" in terms of volatility gradient. Coking coal and coke had a high risk of breaking through S2 and R2, iron ore had a medium risk of breaking through S3, and manganese silicon had a high risk of breaking through R3 [89]. - **Detailed Review of Key Black Metals Variety - Rebar** - **Volume and Open Interest**: The price of the rebar main - continuous contract in 1H25 can be divided into five stages. Currently, the decline has slowed down, but the downward pressure has not been eliminated. The market is in a weak balance state, and it is necessary to be vigilant against break - through risks [92][93][94]. - **Technical Patterns**: The effectiveness of the dead cross signal of MACD was stronger than that of the golden cross signal. Oscillating indicators did not have significant long - or short - term guidance, and it was necessary to be cautious about rebounds in the third quarter [96][98]. - **Support and Resistance Levels**: The pivot point moved down step by step in 1H25, and the market was dominated by bears. The current price is in a box - shaped shock between S2 and R2. The adjustment of support and resistance levels in the third quarter needs to wait for short - term price and volume breakthroughs [102]. - **Black Metals Sector Risk Management Guidelines** - The upstream coking coal and coke can use short - term box operations based on the new weekly Fibonacci pivot, and long - term holding needs to consider fundamental fluctuations. Iron ore can appropriately loosen the box operation to S3 and R3. Rebar is in a weak shock pattern, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risks of short - term rebound and false breakthrough [113][115]. 3.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **1H25 Agricultural Products Sector Technical Rating Review** - Palm oil and soybean meal had high volatility, suitable for short - term active operations; pork and soybean oil had moderate volatility, suitable for medium - term trading; sugar, corn, and cotton had low volatility, suitable for trading strategies that follow the fundamentals [116]. - The overall fit between the market fluctuations and technical indicator ratings in the agricultural products sector was less than 40%, but the yield performance was relatively coordinated in long - and short - term ratings. High - volatility varieties need to use multi - dimensional technical indicators for refined market ratings [116]. - **Agricultural Products Sector Fibonacci Pivot Analysis** - Different varieties had different levels of activity. High - volatility varieties such as soybeans, palm oil, eggs, and red dates were suitable for short - term operations; medium - volatility varieties such as apples, corn starch, soybean meal, and peanuts were suitable for band trading; low - volatility varieties such as japonica rice and cotton were suitable for combining with fundamentals and waiting for key technical level breakthroughs [139]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical Sector - The energy - chemical sector mainly adopts differentiated risk management. High - volatility varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, and styrene are suitable for short - term operations; medium - volatility varieties such as LPG and asphalt are suitable for band trading; low - volatility varieties such as PVC and polypropylene are suitable for medium - term operations combined with fundamentals. PTA should be vigilant against overbought corrections [4].

热点报告——商品期货 财经委会议强调"反内卷" "反内卷"政策的总体思路包括两方面，一是加强行业自律管 理，包括限制低价竞争、自律限产等；二是推进产业升级、落 后产能去化。但本轮"反内卷"政策和 2015 年供给侧革的环境 有很多不同：多数行业产能升级后，产能去化难度更大；除了 上游外，中下游产能过剩情况也较为突出；地产等终端需求尚 未出现企稳回升迹象，对商品价格持续提振的驱动有所不足。 ★"反内卷"对国债和重点商品的影响： 商 国债：基准假设之下，反内卷政策对于国债的影响相对有限。 但需要警惕需求侧政策配合发力，带来国债期货下跌的风险。 期 货 多晶硅、工业硅：6 月底在发改委限价要求下，多晶硅企业报价 远高于下游可接受价格，供应端仍以复产为主。真正意义上涨 取决于减产落实和下游价格传导。工业硅传言大厂减产，但与 政策并未有直接关系，若期价上涨，企业复产套保概率较大。 玻璃、纯碱：光伏玻璃 7 月减产较多，但浮法玻璃尚未明确响 应"反内卷"，且高窑龄产线集中冷修不明显。在政策预期和 高基差下，玻璃期价存在一定支撑。但光伏玻璃减产利空纯碱 需求，建议多玻璃空纯碱套利操作。 钢铁：由于价格持续下行，行业品种结构 ...