宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 5 月 25 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 美国关税的全球影响仍在延续，扩内需是稳增长 的要义 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 ◼ 人民币资产价格波动。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.18%，沪深 300 股指期货 上涨 0.21%；焦煤期货本周下跌 5.61%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 0.89%； 股份制银行理财预期收益率收于 1.85%，余额宝 7 天年化收益率上涨 8BP 至 1.33%；十年国债收益率上行 4BP 至 1.72%，活跃十年国债期货本周上 涨 0.36%。 资产配置建议 本期观点（2025.5.25） | 宏观经济 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一个月内 | = | 关注国内稳增长政策的落地情况 | 不变 | | 三个月内 | = | 关注中美经贸磋商进展及其释放的重要信息 | 不变 | | 一年内 | = | 地缘关系仍有较大不确定性 | 不变 | | 大类资产 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | 股票 | + | 关注"增量" ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry [1] Core Insights - The overall revenue of the sector is steadily increasing, but the recovery in performance is slower, with significant differentiation among sub-sectors. Attention is recommended for cyclical recovery sectors such as human resources and exhibitions, as well as resilient sectors like tourism and scenic spots [1][2] - In 2024, the social services sector achieved a total revenue of 191.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.57%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.48 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.21%. The overall profitability has declined [10][14] - In Q1 2025, the sector generated a revenue of 44.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.75%, with a net profit of 1.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.06% [20][22] Summary by Sections Sector Summary - The revenue growth rate outperformed the profit growth rate, with the professional services and education sectors performing better. In 2024, the professional services sector saw a year-on-year increase of 79.57%, while the education sector's profit level improved significantly [10][14] - In Q1 2025, the professional services sector led with a revenue growth of 89.62%, followed by tourism and scenic spots at 7.39% [22] Tourism - The domestic travel market shows strong resilience, with a total of 5.615 billion domestic tourists in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.80% [34] - The cross-border travel market is experiencing high demand, with inbound tourists reaching 132 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 60.8% [40] Hotels - Business travel demand is still recovering, with the RevPAR expected to be under pressure throughout 2024 [13] Catering - The catering market is expected to see slower revenue growth in 2024, with Q1 2025 showing some improvement [16] Duty-Free - Duty-free sales in offshore areas are showing marginal improvement, with city channels expected to contribute to growth [18] Human Resources - The human resources sector is experiencing stable data operations, but employment market pressures remain [22] Exhibitions - The domestic exhibition market is steadily growing, with the number of exhibitions remaining stable in 2024 [24]

Market Strategy Update - The report indicates that while domestic economic growth momentum has weakened in April, the downside risk remains limited, suggesting a short-term consolidation in A-shares with a focus on external demand and growth themes [1][2] Economic Data Analysis - April's economic data shows a decline compared to March, with external demand outperforming internal demand. Industrial value-added in April grew by 6.1% year-on-year, although this is lower than previous values, yet it remains above the five-year average [2] - Investment and consumption also saw a decline from March, with real estate and manufacturing investments weakening in April. Retail sales showed resilience in essential consumption, but the growth rate for automobiles and communication equipment has notably decreased [2] External vs Internal Demand - The report highlights that external demand has exceeded expectations, driven by robust overseas demand and export activities. In contrast, internal demand is showing signs of weakening, particularly in real estate sales growth, which has seen a marginal decline [2] Policy Expectations - The marginal weakening of internal demand data has led to increased expectations for short-term growth stabilization policies. The People's Bank of China is expected to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in May, further supporting a loose monetary policy [2] Market Outlook - The current market is characterized by a range-bound consolidation pattern. The report suggests that the market's upward potential is contingent on the strength of economic recovery, while the downside risk remains manageable under supportive policies [2] Sector Focus for Q2 - The report recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from external demand and growth themes, specifically: 1. Industries benefiting from export growth and inventory replenishment, such as chemicals and shipping 2. Growth sectors with favorable trends and improved risk appetite, including AI, robotics, semiconductors, and self-sufficiency initiatives [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook based on current valuations and expected demand recovery [1]. Core Insights - The basic chemical industry showed a year-on-year recovery in profitability in Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit increasing by 5.58% and 13.33%, respectively [4][45]. - The oil and petrochemical sector's performance remains stable despite short-term fluctuations in oil prices, with a slight decline in revenue and net profit [27][33]. - The report highlights that the construction projects in the basic chemical sector experienced a negative growth for the first time in five years, indicating potential challenges ahead [20]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In Q1 2025, the basic chemical industry achieved total revenue of 534.57 billion yuan and a net profit of 34.26 billion yuan, marking the first year-on-year growth in nearly three years [4][5]. - The oil and petrochemical sector reported total revenue of 1,931.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.78% year-on-year, with net profit declining by 6.35% [27][30]. Profitability Metrics - The basic chemical industry's gross margin and net margin improved to 16.91% and 6.63%, respectively, with a return on equity (ROE) of 1.85% [11][45]. - The oil and petrochemical sector maintained a gross margin of 19.19% and a net margin of 5.74%, with a slight decrease in ROE to 2.82% [33][38]. Sub-industry Performance - Among 33 sub-industries in the basic chemical sector, 22 reported revenue growth, with significant increases in other chemical raw materials (+29.08%) and compound fertilizers (+25.84%) [4][10]. - The oilfield services segment within the oil and petrochemical sector saw a robust net profit growth of 29.82% [27][31]. Construction and Investment Trends - The basic chemical sector's construction projects totaled 363.16 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.04% year-on-year decrease, the first negative growth in five years [20][23]. - The oil and petrochemical sector's construction projects increased by 8.23% to 582.72 billion yuan, indicating ongoing investment despite revenue declines [40][41]. Market Valuation - As of May 11, 2025, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the basic chemical sector was 21.92, and for the oil and petrochemical sector, it was 10.58, both indicating low historical valuations [1][23].

Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "Outperforming the Market" [29] Core Views - Recent US AI restrictions are expected to benefit domestic software and hardware manufacturers in China, as companies like Huawei and Xiaomi advance their chip development [11][14] - The tightening of AI chip export controls by the US may create short-term pressure on domestic companies but is likely to foster long-term growth in the local hardware ecosystem [11][13] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the Huawei HarmonyOS ecosystem, such as Softcom Power, Runhe Software, and Tuo Wei Information [3] - It also recommends companies related to technological self-sufficiency, including Dameng Data, Cambricon Technologies, and Yuntian Lifi, as well as companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential like Hehe Information [3] Industry News - The US has implemented new AI chip export controls, specifically banning the global use of Huawei's Ascend AI chips [10] - Nvidia is reassessing its strategy in the Chinese market due to restrictions on its H20 chip exports [12] - Xiaomi has announced its self-developed chip, the "Xuanjie O1," which will be used in various products beyond smartphones [14] Company Dynamics - iFlytek showcased its AI+Education innovations at the 2025 World Digital Education Conference [20] - Hengsheng Electronics conducted its first share buyback, purchasing 37,200 shares at prices between 26.76 and 27.02 RMB per share [21]

Group 1: Stock Recommendations - The report highlights a selection of stocks for May, including SF Holding (002352.SZ), Jitu Express (1519.HK), and Royal Technology (603181.SH) among others [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - In April, the public fiscal revenue reached CNY 20,427 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, which is an acceleration of 1.6 percentage points compared to March [7] - The land revenue in April also saw a year-on-year increase, supporting the improvement of local government fund income [8] - The consumer confidence index and dining data showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025, with retail sales in the dining sector growing by 5.6% year-on-year [18] Group 3: Real Estate Market Analysis - In April, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.4%, indicating a continued downward trend in the housing market [10][11] - The number of cities experiencing a decline in new home prices increased to 45 in April, with an average decline of 0.30% [11] - First-tier cities saw a shift in second-hand home prices from an increase to a decrease, with Beijing and Shenzhen both reporting declines [12] Group 4: Alcohol Industry Overview - The white liquor industry is currently in a bottom adjustment phase, with major companies maintaining stable operations while smaller firms face challenges [16] - In Q1 2025, the revenue growth for listed liquor companies was 1.6%, with net profit growth at 2.3%, showing a recovery compared to Q4 2024 [18] - The sales gross margin for the white liquor sector was 81.5% in Q1 2025, slightly down from 81.8% in 2024, indicating pressure on profit margins [19]

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In April, public fiscal revenue reached CNY 20,427.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, accelerating by 1.6 percentage points from March[6] - Tax revenue for April was CNY 18,106.0 billion, also up 1.9% year-on-year, improving by 4.1 percentage points compared to March[6] - Public fiscal expenditure in April amounted to CNY 20,766.0 billion, growing by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly faster than March's growth[11] Tax Contributions - Corporate income tax, being the highest contributing tax in April, saw a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, contributing 1.4 percentage points to the overall tax revenue growth[2] - Domestic value-added tax (VAT) increased by 0.9% year-on-year, contributing 0.3 percentage points to the tax revenue growth, although the growth rate narrowed by 4.0 percentage points from the previous month[8] Social Security and Infrastructure Spending - Social security and employment expenditures accounted for 15.8% of public fiscal spending in April, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, supporting resident income and domestic demand[14] - Infrastructure spending represented 17.1% of public fiscal expenditure, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.6% for transportation and 6.8% for urban community affairs[14] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - In the first four months of 2025, government fund budget revenue totaled CNY 12,586.0 billion, down 6.7% year-on-year, but the decline rate narrowed by 4.3 percentage points compared to the first quarter[19] - April's government fund expenditure reached CNY 6,367.0 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 44.7%, with local government fund expenditure growing by 43.5%[22] Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The political bureau meeting emphasized enhancing consumption's role in economic growth and increasing income for low- and middle-income groups, indicating potential fiscal support for these areas[24] - Fiscal policies are expected to focus on increasing transfer income for residents and promoting consumption through trade-in programs for appliances and vehicles, which could stimulate domestic demand[24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In April, despite extreme tariff pressure, the RMB exchange rate quickly stabilized and rebounded after a brief adjustment, and the multilateral exchange rate continued to weaken. There's no need to worry too much about the passive appreciation of the RMB exchange rate when the US dollar index is weak [2]. - In April, under the impact of Trump's tariffs, cross - border funds had a net inflow for the third consecutive month. Goods trade showed strong resilience, while securities investment was under pressure. However, foreign investors' willingness to allocate RMB assets continued to improve, thanks to the Chinese government's effective response to external shocks and timely stabilization of market expectations [2]. - In April, the enhanced willingness of market players to settle foreign exchange (or weakened motivation to hold foreign exchange) drove the continuous improvement of the domestic foreign exchange supply - demand relationship. The change in the willingness of the enterprise sector to hold foreign exchange was more obvious than that of the household sector [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs RMB Exchange Rate Performance - In April, after two rounds of 10 - percentage - point tariff increases on Chinese goods by Trump in February and March, the RMB exchange rate did not fall but rose. Facing the extreme pressure of the US "reciprocal tariff" in April, the RMB exchange rate re - priced the unexpected major risk event. The offshore RMB exchange rate once fell to around 7.43 on April 8 and 9, and the on - shore RMB exchange rate fell below 7.35 on April 9. Then, the RMB exchange rate rebounded, and the divergence of the "three prices" significantly converged. At the end of April, the on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates depreciated by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively compared with the end of last month but appreciated by 0.5% and 0.9% respectively compared with the end of last year [3]. - The RMB exchange rate quickly stabilized and rebounded in April because the foreign exchange market had priced in Trump's impact in advance at the end of last year. On the one hand, Trump's policies intensified the US dollar credit crisis, causing the US to turn from a safe - haven to a risk source, with the US dollar index falling by 4.4% in the month, the largest decline since December 2022. On the other hand, the Chinese government's effective response, including tariff counter - measures and a series of financial support policies, stabilized market confidence [4]. - In April, the decline of the US dollar index led to the appreciation of major non - US currencies, so the RMB exchange rate index continued to weaken. The CFETS RMB exchange rate index and the RMB exchange rate index referencing the BIS currency basket fell for the fourth consecutive month, with the month - on - month decline expanding from 0.9% and 0.8% last month to 2.8% and 3.1% respectively. The RMB exchange rate index referencing the SDR currency basket weakened for the third consecutive month, with the month - on - month decline expanding from 1.3% to 2.9% [5]. Cross - border Capital Flows - Since February, under the impact of Trump's tariffs, the bank's customer - related foreign exchange receipts and payments have had a continuous surplus, with the surplus amounts being $29 billion, $49.2 billion, and $17.3 billion respectively. In April, securities investment, income and current transfers, service trade, and direct investment were all items with cross - border capital outflows, with deficits of $12.5 billion, $16.6 billion, $10.5 billion, and $7.3 billion respectively. Goods trade continued to play a fundamental role in stabilizing cross - border capital flows, with a surplus of $63 billion, a record high for the same period [11]. - In April, the net inflow of cross - border funds decreased month - on - month, mainly due to securities investment, which changed from a net inflow in the previous two months to a net outflow of $12.5 billion, contributing 62% to the month - on - month decline in the overall net inflow of cross - border funds. However, the net outflow of securities investment in April was less than the average monthly net outflow of $28.4 billion from October 2024 to January 2025, indicating limited pressure on the net outflow of cross - border funds under securities investment [12]. - In April, foreign investors' willingness to allocate RMB assets continued to improve under the extreme tariff pressure. The central Huijin Company clearly stated that it would play the role of a "stabilization fund" and increase its holdings of ETFs and high - quality stocks. The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued support policies to stabilize the capital market, and state - owned asset operation platforms also increased their holdings of central enterprise and technology - innovation stocks [13]. Foreign Exchange Supply - Demand Relationship - In April, the bank's spot and forward (including options) foreign exchange settlement and sales (hereinafter referred to as bank foreign exchange settlement and sales) had a surplus for the second consecutive month, and the surplus increased from $6.3 billion last month to $16.6 billion. The net purchase of forward and options foreign exchange derivatives increased from $8.3 billion last month to $20.9 billion, and the bank's customer - related foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus increased from $100 million last month to $590 million, contributing 122% and 56% respectively to the increase in the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus. The bank's own foreign exchange settlement and sales deficit increased from $2.1 billion last month to $10.1 billion, with a contribution rate of - 79% [15]. - In April, the surplus of the bank's customer - related foreign currency receipts and payments decreased from $34.5 billion last month to $14.2 billion, but the bank's customer - related foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus increased instead of decreasing. The gap between them decreased from $34.4 billion last month to $8.3 billion, the lowest since February 2024. This was mainly because the willingness of market players to settle foreign exchange increased and the motivation to purchase foreign exchange decreased. The settlement rate of foreign exchange receipts (excluding forward performance) increased by 6.9 percentage points month - on - month to 57.4%, the highest since October 2024, and the purchase rate of foreign exchange for payments decreased by 1.0 percentage point [16]. - In April, the gaps between the foreign exchange receipts and payments and foreign exchange settlement and sales of goods trade and service trade narrowed to $31.4 billion and $3.3 billion respectively, both the lowest since October 2024. The narrowing of the goods trade gap was due to the weakened motivation of the enterprise sector to hold foreign exchange, and the settlement rate of goods trade income continued to rise, increasing by 5.1 percentage points month - on - month to 51.0%, the highest in nearly half a year. The narrowing of the service trade gap was because the motivation of the household sector to hold and rush to buy foreign exchange both weakened [17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [27]. Core Insights - In April 2025, the new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.4%. The number of cities experiencing price declines for new homes increased to 45, and for second-hand homes, it rose to 64 [5][11]. - The report highlights that the price decline in April represents a weakening trend compared to the previous months, with the average decline for new homes being 0.30% and for second-hand homes being 0.45% [5][11]. - The report suggests that maintaining a more relaxed policy is crucial to stabilize the real estate market, emphasizing the importance of effective policy implementation [5][11]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In April 2025, new home prices in first-tier cities remained flat, while second-hand home prices shifted from an increase to a decrease. Specifically, Shanghai saw a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, while Beijing increased by 0.1%. In contrast, Shenzhen and Guangzhou experienced declines of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively [5][11]. - For second-tier cities, new home prices remained stable, with 52% of these cities either maintaining or increasing prices. However, second-hand home prices fell by 0.4%, with only 6% of cities seeing price stability or increases [5][11]. - Third-tier cities also saw new home prices decline by 0.2%, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.4% [5][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on four main lines of investment: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Binjiang Group and Greentown China [5]. 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate Group [5]. 3. Companies with operational or strategic changes, including Gemdale Corporation and Longfor Group [5]. 4. Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market, such as Beike-W and Wo Ai Wo Jia [5].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The white liquor industry is currently in a bottom adjustment phase, with leading companies demonstrating stable operations. In the second half of 2024, the performance of the white liquor industry continued to decline, and companies proactively adjusted their operational pace. In the first quarter of 2025, companies maintained the operational rhythm from the second half of 2024, with a slowdown in performance growth but a recovery compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. There is an increasing divergence among different companies [1][12][27]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The white liquor industry experienced a significant performance decline in the second half of 2024, with the first quarter of 2025 showing slight improvement. The overall revenue and net profit growth rates for the white liquor sector in 2024 were +7.3% and +7.4%, respectively, outperforming the overall food and beverage sector [12][15]. Revenue Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, the revenue and net profit growth rates for listed liquor companies were 1.6% and 2.3%, respectively. High-end liquor and regional leading companies maintained steady growth, while other types of liquor companies faced negative growth [27][28]. Profitability Analysis - The sales expense ratio slightly increased, and the net profit margin faced temporary pressure. The gross profit margins for the white liquor sector in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 were 81.8% and 81.5%, respectively, showing a year-on-year increase [1][12][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the current valuation advantage in the white liquor industry, suggesting that leading companies possess medium to long-term investment value. It recommends stable performers such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, while also suggesting attention to companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye, which have shown thorough clearing of their financial statements [1][12][28].