Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the diversified financial sector [2] Core Insights - The public fund industry is undergoing a systematic and high-quality transformation, shifting from a scale-oriented approach to a focus on long-term returns, driven by regulatory reforms and market dynamics [4][13] - By 2030, the total AUM (Assets Under Management) in the industry is expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan, with growth primarily fueled by deeper financial asset allocation by residents and the acceleration of long-term capital inflows [8][16] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The public fund industry has seen a significant transformation since 2023, with reforms focusing on fee reductions, performance benchmarks, and management practices, leading to a restructuring of the operational logic from scale to long-term returns [4][5] Reform Progress - The reforms initiated in 2023 have transitioned from cost constraints to a comprehensive restructuring of the investment research, sales, assessment, and product logic, with a focus on investor returns [5][17] Revenue and Profitability - The total revenue of the public fund industry decreased from 262.5 billion yuan in 2021 to approximately 200 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 21% decline due to fee reductions and changes in trading behavior [6][27] - The average management fee and trading commission rates have significantly declined, with management fees remaining the core revenue source but showing a decreasing contribution from actively managed equity funds [6][15] Asset Growth and Structure - As of Q3 2025, the total net asset value of public funds reached 36.09 trillion yuan, a 12% increase from the beginning of the year, with the proportion of public funds to GDP rising from 7% in 2014 to 27% in 2025 [7][36] - The growth in the industry is primarily driven by equity and money market funds, with a notable increase in the share of industry and thematic ETFs [7][14] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that passive investment, particularly through ETFs, will continue to dominate the industry, while active management will focus on boutique strategies to achieve sustainable alpha [8][16] - The integration of AI technology across the investment research, trading, sales, and risk control processes is expected to enhance the competitive advantages of leading firms [8][16]

Macro Overview - December overseas growth data exceeded expectations, with the US Federal Reserve lowering interest rates and starting balance sheet expansion, while the Bank of Japan signaled intervention in the yen [2][3] - Economic data showed a rebound in the service sector PMI for the US and Europe, while manufacturing continued to weaken [2] - The US November CPI cooled more than expected, primarily due to government shutdown impacts [2] Fixed Income Market - The bond market experienced significant adjustments, with the 30-year treasury yield rising nearly 4 basis points, and shorter maturities increasing by 2-3 basis points [3] - The market saw no significant new negative news, indicating that the adjustments were driven by trading factors and medium-term concerns [3] M&A Notes - The interbank market association announced optimization of the M&A note mechanism, enhancing fund usage flexibility and improving information disclosure [4] - As of December 26, 2025, 11 M&A notes were issued in December, totaling 11.8 billion yuan, with active participation from several state-owned and local enterprises [4] Liquidity Tracking - The public market saw a net injection of 155.2 billion yuan last week, with overall liquidity remaining balanced and slightly loose [5] - The average DR007 remained stable at 1.45%, while R007 increased by 1 basis point to 1.52% [5] Commodity Prices - The industrial sector showed a slight recovery in production rates, with black and colored metals prices continuing to recover, supported by inventory reduction [6] - The construction sector saw a slight narrowing in supply-demand declines, with a focus on future funding and project implementation [6] Utility and Environmental Sector - The industrial heating market in China is projected to reach 490.8 billion yuan, with a significant portion of heating consumption coming from residential and industrial sectors [9] - The potential for increased clean heating adoption is expected to support the growth of the industrial heating market, with power generation companies benefiting from this trend [9] Company Insights - Bailong Chuangyuan is positioned as a leader in functional sugars, with a target price of 28.00 yuan, reflecting a strong growth outlook driven by health trends and technological advantages [10] - Huanxu Electronics is expanding its production capacity for optical modules in Vietnam, aiming to enhance its position in the AI hardware market [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Funiu Co., Ltd. and China Nuclear Power [9] Core Insights - The industrial heating market in China is projected to reach a scale of 490.8 billion yuan (~25 million tons of steam) by 2024, with industrial heating demand accounting for 75% of total heat consumption [1][3] - China's per capita heating consumption is significantly lower than the global average, indicating potential for growth in heating intensity as clean energy heating ratios increase [2][20] - The report forecasts that by 2030, power generation units such as coal, nuclear, waste incineration, and biomass will contribute an additional 225.9 billion yuan to the industrial heating market [4] Summary by Sections Heating Market Overview - In 2023, China's residential heating consumption reached 570.3 PJ, ranking first among major economies, but per capita heating is only 4.0 GJ/person, which is 67% lower than the global average of 12.22 GJ/person [2][17][20] - The disparity in heating intensity is attributed to China's vast territory and diverse climate zones, along with a fragmented heating model in southern regions [21] Industrial Heating Demand - Industrial heating accounted for 75% of China's total heat consumption in 2022, with the manufacturing sector being the largest consumer [44] - The report highlights that industrial heating is a continuous demand, primarily using steam, and is less seasonal compared to residential heating [43] Economic Analysis - The report indicates that the economic viability of industrial steam (cogeneration) is significantly better than pure electricity generation, enhancing profitability for power companies [3][44] - The cost of heating is linked to coal prices, with a projected increase in profitability for coal, nuclear, and waste incineration power plants due to additional heating services [3][4] Future Trends - By 2030, it is estimated that coal, nuclear, waste incineration, and biomass will supply 5.4, 0.7, 3.1, and 2.1 million tons of industrial steam respectively, contributing to a total market size of 225.9 billion yuan [4] - The report suggests that future power generation units will increasingly be equipped with heating capabilities, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [4]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The US economy shows resilience with growth driven by private consumption and net exports, as indicated by the recent Q3 GDP data [2] - Japan's fiscal policy remains expansionary, with signals of potential intervention in the yen and a reduction in long-term bond issuance to stabilize the bond market [2] - Recent data indicates a rebound in exports, although there remains a disparity between domestic and external demand [3] Group 2: Market Strategy - The A-share market has shown a strong performance, nearing mid-November highs, but the sustainability of this "red envelope" market remains uncertain due to a lack of cohesive capital flow [4] - There is potential for a spring rally, with a focus on sectors such as batteries, chemicals, military, and consumer goods, while also emphasizing the need for strategic positioning within these themes [4] - The growth style is expected to dominate in the upcoming spring market, as indicated by the shift in market timing models [5] Group 3: Fixed Income Insights - The bond market is anticipated to experience fluctuations in Q1, with a neutral monetary policy outlook and potential for reserve requirement ratio cuts [9] - The demand for long-term bonds may be lacking, while short-term bonds are expected to remain stable [9] - The overall bond market is likely to face a slightly weak and oscillating environment, with equities still offering better value compared to bonds [9] Group 4: Company Focus - Haitian Flavoring - Haitian Flavoring, a leading condiment company, has been rated "Buy" with a target price of HKD 39.30, reflecting a 27X PE for 2026 [13] - The company is adapting to post-pandemic competition through market-driven governance, product diversification, and channel management, achieving growth despite a weak recovery in demand [13] - The firm is expected to enhance its market share through efficient supply chain management and brand strength, with potential for overseas expansion [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 39.60 [1]. Core Views - The company is actively expanding its overseas production capacity for optical modules and is expected to transition from a leader in consumer electronics SiP to an integrated hardware platform for AI applications [1]. - The growth logic for the company includes capturing major overseas clients like Meta, advancing into AI servers and optical communications, and leveraging synergies with its parent company ASE [1][2]. - The AI glasses segment is identified as a key growth driver for the consumer electronics business from 2025 to 2027, with significant orders already secured [2]. - The company is enhancing its capabilities in AI data centers through a strategic focus on ASIC boards, optical modules, and power supply systems [3]. - The collaboration with ASE is expected to strengthen the company's position in the AI supply chain, focusing on system assembly and integration [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of RMB 39.60, reflecting confidence in its growth potential [1]. Growth Opportunities - The company is set to build a complete production line for 800G/1.6T silicon photonic modules in Vietnam, aiming for a monthly output of 100,000 units [1]. - The AI glasses business is projected to significantly grow, with the company already securing major contracts for WiFi modules and SiP module business [2]. - The company anticipates over 200% year-on-year revenue growth in its AI acceleration card business for 2025 and 2026 [3]. Financial Projections - The forecasted net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is RMB 16.9 billion, RMB 25.3 billion, and RMB 33.1 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.75, RMB 1.13, and RMB 1.48 [5]. - The target price has been adjusted to RMB 39.60, reflecting a 35x PE for 2026, up from a previous estimate of 20x PE for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Bailong Chuangyuan with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of RMB 28.00, corresponding to a 25x PE for 2026 [1][5][7]. Core Insights - Bailong Chuangyuan is positioned as a leader in the functional sugar sector, benefiting from a product mix that aligns with health trends, strong technical barriers providing pricing power, and a global production layout that supports sustained leadership in the functional sugar market [1][14][35]. - The company is expected to experience robust growth driven by the release of dietary fiber and prebiotic capacities in the first half of 2026, alongside the penetration potential of allulose sugar, which is anticipated to become a new growth driver [1][2][35]. Summary by Sections Beta Dimension - Bailong Chuangyuan focuses on the functional sugar sector, with three main product categories—prebiotics, dietary fibers, and allulose sugar—benefiting from the global "sugar reduction" and health upgrade trends [2][15]. - The global market for prebiotics is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% from 2024 to 2030, driven by increasing consumer awareness and supportive policies in dairy and infant formula sectors [2][15]. - Dietary fibers are expected to see a CAGR of 10.0% from 2024 to 2030, with resistant dextrin leading the growth due to its enhanced functionality [2][15]. - Allulose sugar is anticipated to have a CAGR of 16.9% from 2024 to 2030, as it expands from beverages to baked goods, supported by regulatory approvals in key markets [2][15]. Alpha Dimension - The company leads in market share within the functional sugar industry, with significant global market positions in dietary fibers, prebiotics, and allulose sugar [3][16]. - Technical advantages include high purity and low-cost production methods for resistant dextrin and allulose sugar, which enhance competitive positioning [3][16]. - Customer stickiness is strong, with 67% of revenue coming from overseas markets, where the competitive environment is less aggressive than in domestic markets [3][16]. - The company’s flexible production management allows for efficient capacity allocation, focusing on high-value products, and plans for expansion in Thailand are expected to further enhance global competitiveness [3][16]. Market Perspective - The report counters market concerns regarding domestic competition leading to price wars, emphasizing the company's high overseas revenue proportion and the customized nature of its products, which create high switching costs for customers [4][16]. - The business model is designed to mitigate risks associated with capacity expansions by competitors, as the company's products are closely tied to long-term health trends rather than short-term price competition [4][16]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 3.6 billion, RMB 4.7 billion, and RMB 6.2 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.86, RMB 1.12, and RMB 1.48 [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Haitian Flavor Industry Co., Ltd. with an "Accumulate" rating and a target price of HKD 39.30, corresponding to a 27x PE for 2026 [1][5][7]. Core Insights - Haitian Flavor Industry, as a leading player in the domestic seasoning industry, has successfully navigated post-pandemic challenges through a market-oriented governance system that emphasizes high incentives and revenue generation. The company has achieved counter-cyclical growth since 2024 by leveraging category expansion, refined channel management, and proactive brand investment [1][13][32]. - The report highlights the company's sustainable competitive advantages, including a highly efficient supply chain, a nationwide distribution network, and strong brand equity, which are expected to provide cost and efficiency advantages in the long-term seasoning industry [1][5][32]. - The company is poised for growth through domestic market share expansion and overseas market exploration, particularly in Southeast Asia, facilitated by its recent Hong Kong listing [3][5][15]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of HKD 39.30, reflecting a favorable valuation compared to peers [5][7]. Company Overview - Haitian Flavor Industry has a rich history dating back to the Qing Dynasty, evolving into a modern enterprise with significant market presence and brand recognition [17][18]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a robust market position through strategic channel management and brand enhancement, which have led to a significant increase in market share despite industry challenges [15][16][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and category expansion, with new product lines contributing to revenue growth [3][15][19]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 at RMB 7.00 billion, RMB 7.73 billion, and RMB 8.30 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.20, RMB 1.32, and RMB 1.42 [5][10]. - Revenue growth is projected at 9.53% for 2024, with a gradual increase in subsequent years, indicating a recovery trajectory [10][11]. Competitive Landscape - The report contrasts Haitian's strategies with those of international competitors, noting that the company is well-positioned to adapt to market fluctuations and consumer trends, unlike some peers facing structural declines [14][16].

Group 1 - The LLM-FADT text stock selection strategy has underperformed relative to the CSI 500 index by -1.5% this month, with a year-to-date excess return of 2.9% [1][18] - The LLM-FADT strategy has an annualized return of 29.05% since January 2017, with an excess annualized return of 26.56% relative to the CSI 500 index, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.13 [1][20] - The AI industry rotation model recommends holding non-bank financials, petrochemicals, beverages, steel, and utilities for the upcoming week, with an annualized return of 26.49% since 2017 [3][41] Group 2 - The AI theme index rotation model suggests holding petrochemical industry, 300 non-bank, Shenzhen dividend, and China construction indices for the next week, with an annualized return of 16.58% since 2018 [4][28] - The AI concept index rotation model has an annualized return of 22.29% since 2018, with a maximum drawdown of 19.19% [33][34] - The AI industry rotation model has a year-to-date excess return of 29.13% and an annualized excess return of 19.53% [39][41] Group 3 - The AI-enhanced stock selection strategy based on full-frequency fusion factors has achieved a year-to-date excess return of 19.98% relative to the all-A equal-weight benchmark [2][6] - The AI-enhanced CSI 1000 strategy has a year-to-date excess return of 24.24%, with an annualized excess return of 21.89% since 2017 [2][10] - The LLM-FADT strategy has shown more stability and smaller excess drawdowns compared to the BERT-FADT strategy since October 2024 [18][21]

证券研究报告 华泰研究 2025 年 12 月 26 日│中国内地 行业月报 供需宽松叠加地缘溢价逐步消退，油价回归至边际成本附近 12 月以来 OPEC+宣布维持 26Q1 产量目标不变，但美国原油产量持续攀升， 叠加俄乌"和平计划"持续谈判中，12 月中旬 Brent 油价一度跌破 60 美元/ 桶而后小幅反弹，12 月 25 日 WTI/Brent 期货价格收于 58.4/62.2 美元/桶， 较 11 月末下跌 0.3%/1.5%。我们认为美欧对俄制裁带来的风险溢价已基本 消退，北半球需求淡季叠加 OPEC+前期目标增量逐步释放，供需宽松局势 下 26Q1 油价或仍有小幅下行空间，26Q2-Q3 油价有望在需求进入旺季的 带动下见底并上探，预计 25/26 年 Brent 均价为 68/62 美元/桶。长期而言， 考虑主要产油国边际成本及"利重于量"诉求，油价中枢存 60 美元/桶底部 支撑，具备增产降本能力及天然气业务增量的能源龙头企业或将显现配置机 遇，推荐中国石油（A/H）、中国海油（A/H）。 需求侧：北半球进入需求淡季，主要地区成品油进入补库阶段 石油天然气 边际成本支撑下油价下行风险或可控 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [7] Core Insights - The report anticipates stable growth in hydropower and improvements in cash flow for green energy and environmental companies due to government subsidies and debt reduction policies [1][6] - The performance of thermal power companies is expected to improve in Q4 2025 despite some uncertainty due to impairment losses [2] - Hydropower generation has shown significant year-on-year growth, with expectations for increased profitability for major hydropower companies [3] - The renewable energy sector is experiencing growth in installed capacity, which supports an increase in generation, while the risk of impairment is expected to ease [4] - Natural gas production is on the rise, and cost reductions may boost demand in the coming years [5] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - In October and November 2025, thermal power generation increased by 7.3% and decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, respectively, with coal prices declining by 11.5% year-on-year [2] - The average price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal in Q4 2025 is projected to be 750 RMB per ton [2] Hydropower & Nuclear Power - Hydropower generation in October and November 2025 increased by 28.2% and 17.1% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The Three Gorges Dam's outflow increased significantly, and nuclear power generation also showed stable growth [3] Renewable Energy - From January to October 2025, wind and solar power generation increased by 7.6% and 23.2% year-on-year, respectively, with installed capacity growth supporting generation increases [4] - The utilization rates for wind and solar power were 96.4% and 94.8%, respectively, indicating a slight year-on-year improvement [4] Natural Gas - Natural gas production increased by 5.9% and 5.7% year-on-year in October and November 2025, while apparent consumption decreased by 1.3% [5] - The market anticipates a decline in international oil prices and domestic gas prices, which may support demand growth [5] Environmental Sector - The report highlights the positive impact of government subsidy repayments and pricing adjustments on the environmental sector's fundamentals [6] - The ongoing debt reduction policies are expected to enhance the financial performance of environmental companies [6]