二、经济学解析：节令商品的"时间敏感性"与库存压力 一、价格曲线：从"天价"到"白菜价"的骤变 供需失衡的极端反差 月饼的消费周期高度集中于中秋前两周，其需求弹性在节前趋近于零（消费者愿为节日仪式感支付溢 价），而节后需求几乎归零。这种"脉冲式消费"导致厂商需在短期内完成生产、销售、回收的全链条运 作。 库存成本倒逼价格出清 四、厂商困局：从"赌预期"到"被迫止损" 为应对节后滞销，厂商采取分级处理策略： 降价回流：将未售出礼盒以成本价30%-50%返厂，部分高端礼盒拆解后作为员工福利发放。 饲料化处理：临期月饼经粉碎、高温处理后，以1500元/吨的价格售予饲料厂，制成动物饲料。 跨界转型：黄庄月饼等区域性品牌通过"去包装化"策略，以油纸包裹的平价月饼抢占日常零食市场，节 后销量反增20%。 五、未来趋势：节令经济的"去泡沫化"生存 根据《2025年中国月饼市场发展报告》，月饼生产企业的库存周转周期通常不超过30天。未售出月饼若 滞留至节后，不仅面临临期损耗风险，还需承担高额仓储成本。河南某厂商坦言："节后剩余月饼以不 足1元/个的价格批量转售给超市，远低于生产成本。" 政策调控与消费观念变迁的双重挤压 国家 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly stated, but the ☆☆☆ rating might imply a relatively strong upward trend according to the star - rating system [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct upward trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a more distinct upward trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, showing a more distinct upward trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, meaning a more distinct upward trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The international oil price is in a state of shock consolidation. The geopolitical risk premium has slightly increased, but without a clear escalation, the upward space of oil price is limited [2] - The fuel oil market is affected by factors such as the decline in sales volume and supply, and the high - sulfur resources are supported by geopolitical premiums, resulting in a relatively strong high - low sulfur spread [3] - The asphalt futures fluctuate around 3500 yuan/ton, with stable spot prices. The decline in supply and inventory supports the asphalt price [4] - The international LPG market rebounds under the support of import demand. The domestic market has a short - term repair trend, but there is long - term overseas production increase pressure [5] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded slightly, with the SC10 contract rising 0.85% during the day [2] - Geopolitical risk premiums have slightly increased due to the restart of the process of implementing UN sanctions on Iran by the UK, France, and Germany [2] - The oil price is in a relative steady state under the game of post - peak season loose supply - demand and short - term geopolitical risk support, and the upward space is limited without clear escalation [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - FU and LU maintained a shock today [3] - As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and China's bonded marine fuel filling demand decreased by 1% year - on - year [3] - As of July, domestic refinery production of marine fuel was sluggish, with supply decreasing by 19% year - on - year [3] - Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory increased month - on - month, and the high - low sulfur spread remained relatively strong due to geopolitical premiums on high - sulfur resources [3] Asphalt - Today, asphalt futures fluctuated around 3500 yuan/ton, with stable spot prices and little change in basis [4] - Recently, most refineries in Shandong have switched to producing residual oil, resulting in a decline in supply [4] - The shipment volume increased slightly month - on - month, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8%. Both factory and social inventories decreased significantly, supporting the asphalt price [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The international LPG market rebounded under the support of import demand, and the domestic arrival volume continued to recover [5] - Due to the low - price goods in the early stage, the sales pressure was limited. Attention should be paid to the pressure on the domestic chemical industry after the increase in import costs [5] - The naphtha - propane spread maintained an advantageous level, and the short - term high chemical demand could be maintained [5] - The spot negative pressure has been released stage by stage, and the market maintains a repair trend. There is long - term overseas production increase pressure, resulting in a near - strong and far - weak market [5]

Group 1: General Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: Plastic 2601 opened at 7352 yuan/ton, closed at 7334 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.14%); Plastic 2605 opened at 7346 yuan/ton, closed at 7312 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-0.40%); Plastic 2509 opened at 7308 yuan/ton, closed at 7292 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.04%); PP2601 opened at 7073 yuan/ton, closed at 7048 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton (-0.49%); PP2605 opened at 7075 yuan/ton, closed at 7048 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-0.44%); PP2509 opened at 7051 yuan/ton, closed at 7026 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-0.51) [5] Group 3: Market Analysis - Market Performance: Futures prices fluctuated downward, suppressing the spot market atmosphere. Traders were eager to sell, but downstream factories' enthusiasm for replenishing stocks did not improve, mainly purchasing in small quantities at low prices [6] - Supply Side: Upstream device operating loads continued to increase. Although PP maintenance losses were still at a high level, with the restart of previously shut - down devices and few new maintenance devices, the impact of maintenance decreased and the expectation of new capacity expansion increased. PE had no new plans, and after the end of the centralized maintenance period, the operating load and output continued to increase. Next week, due to more shut - down and planned shut - down devices, the supply pressure was relatively neutral [6] - Downstream Consumption: The operating loads of agricultural film, plastic weaving, and BOPP increased month - on - month. Some enterprises' orders improved, but the expectation for the peak season was weaker year - on - year [6] - Market Outlook: During the macro - window period, the market returned to fundamentals. A unilateral oscillation mindset was adopted. There was an expectation of improvement in supply - demand margins during the off - peak to peak season transition. Attention should be paid to the improvement of demand in the second half of the month and the actual support of inventory reduction [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory: On August 18, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 825,000 tons, a 7.84% increase (60,000 tons) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 830,000 tons [7] - PE Market Price: The PE market price was weakly adjusted. The LLDPE price in North China was 7200 - 7430 yuan/ton, in East China was 7260 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7380 - 7700 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene Market Price: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 6400 - 6450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. There were both device startups and shutdowns, and the supply side was mixed. Production enterprises' quotes were mostly slightly increased, and downstream factories purchased at low prices. The market was mainly a game between supply and demand [7] - PP Market Price: The PP market declined slightly. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing was 6900 - 7020 yuan/ton, in East China was 6960 - 7080 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6880 - 7120 yuan/ton [8]

Core Viewpoint - The butanone market has experienced a significant price increase, reaching a yearly high due to supply constraints and production cuts from major factories, despite a weakening demand from end-user industries [1][2][4]. Supply Dynamics - The butanone market saw a price surge from a low of 6683.33 yuan in mid-June to a high of 8566 yuan by mid-July, marking an increase of over 1800 yuan or 28.18% [1][2]. - Major factories have reduced production, leading to a notable decline in domestic output, which has prompted manufacturers to raise ex-factory prices [2][3]. - The ongoing maintenance and repair of butanone facilities are expected to further decrease production, with industry operating rates dropping to their lowest levels of the year [3][4]. Demand Factors - The downstream demand for butanone is currently weak, particularly in the adhesive sector, which accounts for over 30% of butanone consumption [5][6]. - The traditional off-peak season has resulted in lower production rates among smaller manufacturers, with inventory levels remaining moderate [5][6]. - Export competitiveness is hindered as the FOB price of butanone in China is around 1060 USD/ton, which is higher than prices in other countries, limiting export opportunities [5][6]. Market Outlook - The butanone market is expected to continue experiencing price support due to supply constraints, but the weak demand from end-user industries may limit further price increases [6].

Group 1 - The domestic medium and heavy plate market continues to experience fluctuations, with black futures increasing market caution and spot prices remaining stable, though some regions see slight declines [1][4] - The overall trading atmosphere is cautious due to weak terminal demand, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach [4][5] - The price of medium and heavy plates is trending downward, with the national average price for 20mm common plates at 3418 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5][6] Group 2 - Major steel mills are maintaining stable pricing strategies, with some adjustments in certain regions, while cost support is weakening due to fluctuating raw material prices [6][10] - The market focus is shifting towards policy expectations and demand release, with potential support for medium and heavy plate demand from increased infrastructure investment and manufacturing recovery [8][9] - The industry faces ongoing capacity expansion pressures, with an additional 5.1 million tons planned for the second half of the year, complicating the supply-demand balance [9][10]

Core Insights - Copper prices have experienced a slight pullback, influenced by policy, trade dynamics, and supply-demand factors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The fluctuations in copper prices are attributed to ongoing negotiations and adjustments in trade policies [1] - Supply and demand factors are playing a crucial role in determining the future trajectory of copper prices [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The market is closely monitoring how these various factors will influence copper prices moving forward [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report Geopolitical disturbances have driven up the prices of upstream crude oil and methanol, providing cost support for the upward oscillation of LLDPE and PP futures. The LLDPE and PP futures markets showed an upward trend, with the LLDPE 2509 contract closing at 7,338 yuan/ton, up 127 yuan/ton (1.76%), and the PP main contract closing at 7,133 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton (1.15%). The PP futures' upward movement boosted the spot market, with some upstream petrochemical manufacturers raising their factory prices, strengthening the cost support for the supply. However, the supply-demand pattern has changed little, with reduced maintenance efforts and new capacity coming on stream, increasing supply pressure. The downstream agricultural film industry's operating rate has dropped to a relatively low level this year, and the packaging industry has low willingness to stockpile raw materials and finished products in the short term. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry is significantly lower than the same period in previous years. The continuous fermentation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East supports oil prices, and the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants has pushed up the price of MA. Polyolefins are in a stage of strong cost and weak supply-demand game, and are expected to operate warmly in the short term driven by cost support [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Quotes**: The LLDPE and PP futures contracts showed an upward trend. For example, the LLDPE 2509 contract opened at 7,266 yuan/ton, closed at 7,338 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 7,341 yuan/ton and a minimum of 7,219 yuan/ton, up 127 yuan/ton (1.76%), and the trading volume was 455,000 lots, with the open interest decreasing by 16,526 lots to 477,702 lots. The PP main contract opened at 7,103 yuan/ton, closed at 7,133 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton (1.15%), and the open interest increased by 4,247 lots to 460,472 lots [3][4]. - **Cost and Supply-Demand Analysis**: Geopolitical disturbances have driven up the prices of upstream crude oil and methanol, providing cost support for polyolefins. However, the supply-demand pattern is weak, with reduced maintenance efforts and new capacity coming on stream, increasing supply pressure. The downstream demand is also weak, with the agricultural film industry's operating rate dropping to a relatively low level this year, and the packaging industry having low willingness to stockpile raw materials and finished products in the short term [4]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory Level**: On June 16, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 825,000 tons, up 15,000 tons (1.85%) from the previous working day, compared with 820,000 tons in the same period last year [5]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The domestic PP North China drawn wire mainstream price was in the range of 7,070 - 7,250 yuan/ton, the East China drawn wire mainstream price was in the range of 7,130 - 7,250 yuan/ton, and the South China drawn wire mainstream price was in the range of 7,090 - 7,300 yuan/ton. The PE market prices continued to rise, with prices increasing in different regions and product types. For example, in the North China region, some linear PE prices increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, some high-pressure PE prices increased by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, and some low-pressure PE prices increased by 20 - 200 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Data Overview The report includes various data charts and graphs, such as the L-PP price difference, the settlement price of the crude oil futures main contract, the inventory of two major oil companies, and the L and PP basis, etc. These data are sourced from Wind and Zhuochuang Information, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [10][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall short - term trend of the feed and aquaculture industry is volatile, with different products having their own supply - demand situations and price trends. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand patterns of various products will change, affecting price trends. Strategies for different products are also proposed based on these analyses [1][2][4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pig - **Price**: On May 27, the spot price in Liaoning was 13.9 - 14.6 yuan/kg (up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day), in Henan 14.2 - 14.8 yuan/kg (up 0.1 yuan/kg), in Sichuan 14.1 - 14.4 yuan/kg (up 0.1 yuan/kg), and in Guangdong 15 - 15.6 yuan/kg (stable). The national pig price was stable with a slight upward trend in the morning [1]. - **Short - term**: The supply pressure is gradually released as the slaughter weight has declined. The market's price - supporting sentiment has increased, and there is still low - level secondary fattening. The demand for the Dragon Boat Festival is increasing, but it is the off - season for pork consumption, and the demand increase is limited. The short - term supply and demand are in a game, and the pig price has support at the low level but with intensified fluctuations [1]. - **Medium - to - long term**: From May to November 2024, the inventory of fertile sows increased slowly, and the production performance improved. From May to September 2024, the supply showed an increasing trend. From November 2024 to February 2025, the number of piglets increased year - on - year, and the slaughter pressure in the second quarter was still high. The pig price is still at risk of falling under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. From December 2024, the pig production capacity has been reduced, but the reduction range is limited, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still high [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures price has already reflected the weak expectation in advance, with support at the bottom. But the price is still under pressure due to increased and postponed supply. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. For the 07 contract, the pressure level is 13700 - 13800, and the support level is 13000 - 13100; for the 09 contract, the pressure level is 14000 - 14200, and the support level is 13300 - 13400. Short positions can be opened when the price rebounds to the pressure level [1]. 2. Eggs - **Price**: On May 27, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.9 yuan/jin (up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day), and in Beijing 3.2 yuan/jin (up 0.11 yuan/jin) [2]. - **Short - term**: As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, the terminal consumption is expected to increase, and the procurement demand from channels and downstream may increase. The acceleration of culling has relieved the supply pressure, which is expected to support the egg price. However, the supply pressure is still large due to the large number of newly - opened chickens in May, and the unfavorable weather in the south for egg storage and the approaching rainy season after the festival make the channel procurement cautious, so the demand is relatively limited. The egg price is under pressure despite the festival's positive impact [2]. - **Medium - term**: The high number of chicks replenished from February to April 2025 corresponds to a large number of newly - opened laying hens from June to August 2025. The production capacity clearance may take time, and the long - term supply increase trend is difficult to reverse [2]. - **Long - term**: After the poor breeding profits in the first half of the year, the enthusiasm for chick replenishment has declined, and the number of newly - opened chickens in the fourth quarter may decrease month - on - month [2]. - **Strategy**: The egg price has support during the Dragon Boat Festival, but is under pressure due to sufficient supply and weakening demand. In the third quarter, both supply and demand increase, and interval operations are recommended. In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure may be relieved. For the 07 contract, be cautious about short - selling after entering June, and pay attention to the performance at the 3020 - 3060 pressure level; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view in general and wait for the price to rebound to open short positions. For the 08 contract, pay attention to the 3750 - 3800 pressure level. For the 10 contract, look for long - position opportunities at low prices [2][4]. 3. Oils - **Price**: On May 26, the US soybean oil main contract had no quotation due to a public holiday. The Malaysian palm oil main 8 - month contract rose 0.05% to 3829 ringgit/ton. The national palm oil price dropped 60 - 360 yuan/ton to 8400 - 8650 yuan/ton, soybean oil price dropped 70 - 100 yuan/ton to 7900 - 8100 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil price dropped 10 yuan/ton to 9350 - 9780 yuan/ton [4]. - **Palm oil**: The MPOB April report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased to 1.87 million tons, which was bearish. From May 1 - 25, the export data improved slightly, with a 7.34 - 11.63% month - on - month increase. The production growth continued to slow down, with only a 0.73% month - on - month increase from May 1 - 25. The inventory accumulation in May may be lower than expected. However, the origin is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage until October, and the inventory is expected to continue to rise, putting pressure on the price. The export tax policies of the main producing countries in June are different: Indonesia raised the export tax, while Malaysia lowered it. The short - term Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate, with the 08 contract operating in the 3800 - 4000 range. In China, the palm oil arrivals in May - June are expected to be more than 200,000 tons each month, but the domestic inventory recovery is slow, still at a low level of 338,700 tons as of the week of May 23 [4]. - **Soybean oil**: The EPA denied the biofuel blending exemption for small refineries, and the biodiesel policy has changed again. The excessive rainfall in Argentina and the possible delay of sowing in the US Midwest support the US soybean price. However, the 2026 biofuel blending volume announced by the EPA may be lower than expected, and the 45z Act is yet to be passed by the Senate, so the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy remains, and the pressure of the old - crop South American soybeans limits the rise of the US soybean price. The US soybean 07 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 1050 - 1080 range in the short term. In China, the domestic soybean arrivals from May to July are expected to reach an average of 10 million tons per month, and the soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and started to rise to 697,200 tons. The domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to continue to increase due to the large arrivals and rising mill operating rates [4]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The Canadian rapeseed inventory for the 2024/2025 season continues to decline due to strong crushing and export demand. The sowing of new - crop rapeseed in Canada is accelerating, but the high - temperature and dry weather in the prairie region has raised drought concerns. The US House of Representatives passed the revised 45Z Act, which is beneficial to the biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. The ICE rapeseed is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historically high level of 870,000 tons, but the arrivals of Canadian rapeseed in the second quarter are expected to be halved year - on - year. If the supply tightening expectation remains unchanged, the rapeseed oil inventory is expected to gradually decrease [4][5]. - **Strategy**: The short - term trend of oils is expected to be volatile. The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to operate in the 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 ranges respectively. Short positions can be opened cautiously when the price rises. The strategy of widening the spread between the 09 contracts of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils can be long - term concerned [6]. 4. Soybean Meal - **Price**: On May 26, the US soybeans were closed due to a public holiday. The soybean meal was relatively strong under the low oil - meal ratio, but the rebound space was limited by the loose spot market expectation. The M2509 contract closed at 2950 yuan/ton, with narrow - range fluctuations. The spot price in East China was 2860 yuan/ton, and the basis was 09 - 90 yuan/ton [6]. - **Short - term**: The US soybean sowing progress is smooth, and the high - yield South American soybeans suppress the US soybean price. However, the low carry - over inventory of US soybeans provides strong support at the bottom. The US soybeans are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In China, the soybean arrivals are increasing, and the soybeans are entering the inventory accumulation cycle. The mill operating rate has increased significantly, and the spot price is expected to weaken with the loosening of supply and demand. The 09 contract was previously suppressed by the spot market but has obvious bottom support and is expected to return to its fundamental situation and rise in price. Attention should be paid to the US soybean planting weather [6]. - **Long - term**: Although the tariff on imported US soybeans has been significantly reduced, the import cost has still increased, which has reduced the arrivals of US soybeans during the supply season. China has shifted more positions to South America, driving up the forward price in South America. The US soybean is in the sowing stage, and the weather disturbances are increasing. The increase in domestic import cost and the tightening of supply and demand will drive the domestic soybean meal price to rise [6]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract is expected to operate in the [2860, 3000] range in the short term. After mid - June, long positions can be opened when the price pulls back [6]. 5. Corn - **Price**: On May 26, the purchase price of new corn in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2320 yuan/ton. The purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2468 yuan/ton, both stable compared to the previous day [7]. - **Short - term**: As the corn price rises to a high level, the willingness of traders to sell has increased, and the market supply has increased, which has slowed down the price increase. However, the farmers' grain sales are basically over, and the grain has been transferred to the trading end. The market is still bullish, and the traders are firm in their asking prices. The inventory in the north - south ports is gradually decreasing, which supports the price. The short - term price has support due to the reduction of grassroots grain sources [7]. - **Long - term**: The 2024/2025 crop year in Northeast and North China may see a reduction in production, and the imported materials have decreased significantly year - on - year. The domestic supply - demand is tightening marginally, which drives the corn price up. However, the policy release and the listing of new - season wheat and other substitutes will further supplement the supply, limiting the upward space of the price. Attention should be paid to the wheat production situation and the mainstream price trend [7]. - **Strategy**: The 07 contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level (2300 - 2360), and long positions can be opened at the lower end of the range. Attention can be paid to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the trading end's grain sales rhythm, policy release, and substitute situations [7][8]. 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper price may experience a short - term upward movement due to supply tightness and the relative strength of US copper, but there are risks of economic slowdown in the medium term [1]. - The aluminum price is supported by the continuous decline of inventories and is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, with the possibility of the inter - month spread further widening [3]. - For lead, if the reduction in recycled production leads to a greater decline in scrap prices, it may weaken the cost support and deepen the downward space for lead prices [4]. - Zinc prices still face a certain downward risk in the medium term as the social inventory of zinc ingots accumulates [6]. - The tin price may decline as the supply is expected to loosen and the demand is weak [7][8]. - Nickel has a slightly improved short - term fundamental situation but remains bearish in the long run, and it is recommended to short at high prices [9]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price may run weakly [11]. - For alumina, it is recommended to lightly short at high prices as the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change [13]. - The stainless steel market is affected by cost support and supply - demand game, and it is difficult to show a trend in the short term [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, the LME copper rose 1.84% to $9614/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78390 yuan/ton [1]. - The total inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 20,000 tons, and the Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 11,000 tons [1]. - The spot import loss of copper expanded, and the Yangshan copper premium continued to decline [1]. - The SHFE copper main contract is expected to run in the range of 77,200 - 79,500 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M in the range of $9450 - 9750/ton [1]. Aluminum - Last week, the LME aluminum fell 0.74% to $2466/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,175 yuan/ton [3]. - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 24,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10,000 tons [3]. - The SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to run in the range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2420 - 2520/ton [3]. Lead - Last week, the SHFE lead index rose 1.07% to 16,859 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S rose to $1984.5/ton [4]. - The domestic social inventory of lead increased, and the LME lead inventory was 295,800 tons [4]. Zinc - Last week, the SHFE zinc index fell 0.20% to 22,213 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose to $2695/ton [6]. - In April, China's exports of unforged zinc alloy reached 1280.23 tons, with a significant increase [6]. - The zinc concentrate port inventory continued to rise, and the zinc price has a downward risk in the medium term [6]. Tin - Last week, the tin market maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price continued to oscillate at a high level [7]. - The supply of tin ore is gradually recovering but slowly, and the demand has not increased significantly [7][8]. - The SHFE tin main contract is expected to run in the range of 260,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin in the range of $34,000 - 39,000/ton [8]. Nickel - Last week, the nickel price maintained a weak oscillation [9]. - The supply of refined nickel is at a historical high, and the demand from the stainless - steel market is weak [9]. - It is recommended to short at high prices, with the SHFE nickel main contract expected to run in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and the LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,500/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - On Friday, the MMLC of lithium carbonate decreased, and the futures price also declined [11]. - The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price may run weakly [11]. - The reference operating range of the GZCE lithium carbonate 2507 contract is 60,200 - 61,600 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - On May 23, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.31% to 3165 yuan/ton [13]. - The spot prices in some regions increased, and the futures inventory decreased [13]. - It is recommended to lightly short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 expected to run in the range of 2850 - 3400 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,875 yuan/ton [15]. - The spot prices in some markets remained stable, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease [15]. - The market is affected by cost support and supply - demand game, and it is difficult to show a trend in the short term [15].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products showing various trends. Pig prices are under pressure in the short - and long - term due to supply - demand imbalances. Egg prices are also under pressure because of high supply. The oil market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and may decline in the second quarter before rebounding in the third quarter. The short - term trend of soybean meal is expected to be low - level volatile, while the medium - and long - term trend is expected to be stable and upward. Corn prices are expected to be stable and upward in the long - term but with limited upside space [1][2][7][8]. Summary by Category Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 22, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), in Henan 14.4 - 15 yuan/kg (down 0.1 yuan/kg), in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), and in Guangdong 15 - 15.5 yuan/kg (stable) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, the supply pressure is accumulating. Although the short - term supply pressure is released, the long - term supply is expected to increase from May to September 2024. The demand is weak, and the supply - demand game intensifies [1]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the pig price fluctuates frequently. In the long - term, there is a risk of price decline. The forward price is under pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy at the resistance level. The resistance and support levels for the 07 contract are 13700 - 13800 and 13000 - 13100 respectively, and for the 09 contract are 14000 - 14200 and 13300 - 13400 respectively. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contract when the price rebounds [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 22, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.9 yuan/jin (down 0.2 yuan/jin), and in Beijing 3.3 yuan/jin (stable) [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term demand may increase, but supply is continuously accumulating. The high supply situation is not alleviated [2]. - **Price Trend**: The short - term price is under pressure. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for the 06 contract. Adopt a short - selling strategy for the 08 and 09 contracts when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the resistance level of 3750 - 3800 for the 08 contract [2]. Oil Palm Oil - **International Market**: On May 21, the Malaysian palm oil 08 contract closed at 3896 ringgit/ton (down 0.36%). The supply and demand are both weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and the 08 contract is expected to trade in the range of 3800 - 4000 [2][3][4]. - **Domestic Market**: From May, a large amount of palm oil will arrive in China. The inventory has increased to 35.97 tons and is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [4]. Soybean Oil - **International Market**: The US biodiesel policy is negative for soybean oil. The short - term trend of US soybeans is expected to be volatile, and the 07 contract is expected to trade in the range of 1040 - 1050 [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to reach about 1 million tons per month. The soybean oil inventory has started to increase to 65.63 tons, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [5]. Rapeseed Oil - **International Market**: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The short - term trend of ICE rapeseed is expected to be volatile and upward [6]. - **Domestic Market**: The rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level of 87 tons. The supply pressure is high in the short - term. If the supply tightens, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [6]. - **Overall Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be volatile in the short - term, trading in the ranges of 7700 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Adopt a short - selling strategy with caution at high prices. Pay long - term attention to the strategy of expanding the price difference between soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil for the 09 contracts [7]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the US soybean 07 contract closed at 1062.75 cents/bushel (up 9.75 cents). The domestic M2509 contract closed at 2934 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2890 yuan/ton [7]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the US soybean price is expected to be volatile, and the domestic spot price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract is expected to be strong. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price is expected to be strong [7][8]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase long positions for the 09 contract in the short - term. Adopt a long - buying strategy on dips after mid - June [8]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), and the purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2468 yuan/ton (stable) [8]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the price is supported. In the long - term, the price has an upward drive, but the upside space is limited [8]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - buying strategy at the lower edge of the range for the 07 contract. Pay attention to the positive spread strategy between the 7 - 9 contracts [8]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Variety | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two Days Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active (Cents/Bushel) | 1,061.75 | 1,054.25 | 7.50 | | Soybean Meal Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 2,934 | 2,889 | 45.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal (Yuan/Ton) | 2,880 | 2,880 | 0.00 | | CBOT Corn Active (Cents/Bushel) | 460.00 | 454.50 | 5.50 | | Corn Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 2,324 | 2,312 | 12.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 2,310 | 2,310 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active (Cents/Pound) | 49.75 | 49.57 | 0.18 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil (Yuan/Ton) | 8,140 | 8,230 | - 90.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active (Ringgit/Ton) | 3,896 | 3,910 | - 14.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 8,600 | 8,650 | - 50.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active (Canadian Dollar/Ton) | 719.60 | 704.40 | 15.20 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 9,450 | 9,400 | 50.00 | | Egg Main Contract (Yuan/500 Kilograms) | 2,959 | 2,964 | - 5.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot (Yuan/Jin) | 3.00 | 3.05 | - 0.05 | | Pig Futures Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 13,650 | 13,690 | - 40.00 | | Henan Pig Spot (Yuan/Kilogram) | 14.60 | 14.60 | 0.00 | [9]