Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views Steel - The rebound of ferrous metals since June was due to the production cut of coking coal caused by environmental inspections, the resilient demand during the off - season, and the low inventory. In July, the "anti - involution" trading improved market sentiment, and with the marginal improvement of industrial supply - demand and market sentiment, ferrous metals rose strongly. High - frequency data shows that off - season demand is resilient, steel mill production remains high, and raw material inventories are in a destocking trend. Later, the inventory may weaken if coking coal production recovers or steel demand declines. Macroscopically, under the expectation of supply - side contraction, the sentiment of commodity buying is positive. The resistance levels of rebar and hot - rolled coil at around 3100 and 3270 yuan have been removed, and the next pressure levels are 3250 and 3400 yuan [1] Iron Ore - Last week, the 09 contract of iron ore rose strongly. Fundamentally, the global shipment volume of iron ore decreased slightly, the arrival volume at 45 ports increased slightly, and the subsequent arrival volume is expected to decline slightly. On the demand side, after the lifting of production restrictions in Tangshan on July 15, the iron - making water output rebounded significantly, and the short - term resilience of molten iron is maintained. The terminal demand shows a strong performance in the off - season. In terms of inventory, port inventory increased slightly, and the inventory of steel mills' equity ore decreased rapidly. In the future, the molten iron output in July will remain high, and the steel mill profit will support raw materials. The short - term iron ore will fluctuate strongly. The strategy is to go long on the 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [4] Coke - Last week, the coke futures fluctuated upward, and the first - round spot price increase was implemented. The supply side saw some coal mines resuming production, but the output was difficult to increase due to losses. The demand side witnessed the end of environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, the resumption of blast furnaces, and a significant increase in molten iron. The inventory of coking plants and ports decreased, while the steel mill inventory increased. Due to the low price, cost push and the downstream steel mills' active replenishment demand are conducive to the future price increase of coke. The strategy is to conduct hedging operations in the spot - futures market, go long on the 09 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6] Coking Coal - Last week, the coking coal futures fluctuated upward, and the spot price generally increased. The supply side has an expectation of increased supply, but the overall production recovery is slow, and the market is in short supply. The import coal price has a slight rebound, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The demand side shows a slight increase in coking plant operation, a rapid increase in molten iron output, and an increase in the replenishment efforts of steel mills and coking plants. The inventory of coal mines is decreasing, and the downstream inventory is increasing. The strategy is to conduct hedging operations in the spot - futures market, go long on the 09 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts generally increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3200 to 3220 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price increased from 3162 to 3196 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2960 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions generally decreased, such as the East China rebar profit decreased by 41 to 91 [1] Production - The daily average molten iron output increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 4.5 to 868.2, a 0.5% decrease. The rebar output decreased by 7.6 to 209.1, a 3.5% decrease [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.9 to 1337.7, a 0.1% decrease. The rebar inventory increased by 2.9 to 543.3, a 0.5% increase [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 0.7 to 9.4, an 8.6% increase. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 15.3 to 206.2, a 6.9% decrease, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 1.3 to 323.8, a 0.4% increase [1] Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the 09 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also increased. For example, the 09 - contract basis of PB powder increased from 25.2 to 34.5 yuan/ton, a 36.9% increase [4] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 178.2 to 2662.1, a 7.2% increase, and the global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 7.8 to 2987.1, a 0.3% decrease [4] Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 2.6 to 242.4, a 1.1% increase. The daily average port clearance volume (weekly) increased by 3.2 to 322.7, a 1.0% increase [4] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 62.1 to 13785.21, a 0.5% increase, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 157.5 to 8822.2, a 1.8% decrease [4] Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The 09 - contract price of coke decreased by 1 to 1518, a 0.14% decrease, and the 01 - contract price increased by 4 to 1559, a 0.3% increase [6] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 64.2, a 0.2% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.1, a 0.2% decrease [6] Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.6 to 242.4, a 1.1% increase [6] Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 5.3 to 925.7, a 0.64% decrease. The inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 5.5 to 87.6, a 5.94% decrease, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.2 to 639.0, a 0.2% increase [6] Coking Coal Price and Spread - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged. The 09 - contract price of coking coal increased by 8 to 926, a 0.8% increase, and the 01 - contract price increased by 8 to 976, a 0.84% increase [6] Supply - The raw coal output decreased by 1.6 to 866.6, a 0.2% decrease, and the clean coal output decreased by 1.1 to 442.4, a 0.2% decrease [6] Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 64.2, a 0.2% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.1, a 0.2% decrease [6] Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 18.3 to 158.1, a 10.3% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 36.8 to 929.1, a 4.1% increase, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 8.2 to 791.1, a 1.04% increase [6]

发布时间：2025-07-21 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 行业基本情况 | | 收盘点位 | 5199.61 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5230.85 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-07 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 2025-07 -17% -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《滞胀交易驱动金属价格上行》 - 2025.07.06 有色金属行业报告 （2025.07.12-2025 ...

SHMET 网讯：在2900点附近沉寂了近一个月的氧化铝，近日突然爆发，期价连续多日收阳，飙升至一个半月高位。 氧化铝持续反弹主要是受"反内卷交易"和仓单库存较低提振吗？目前几内亚已经进入雨季，对当地铝土矿发运的影响开始显现了吗？未来成本端会对氧化铝 形成支撑吗？当前国内氧化铝企业运营情况如何？后续产量仍有增加预期吗？氧化铝期价短期上涨空间还大吗？文华财经【机构会诊】板块邀请氧化铝期货 专家为您一一解答。 【机构会诊】：最近氧化铝持续反弹，主要是受"反内卷交易"和仓单库存较低提振吗？ 海通期货有色研究员 胡畔：最近氧化铝持续反弹，主因一方面几内亚宣布创建铝土矿国家指数GBX消息提振，叠加几内亚雨季对铝土矿发运影响预期使得 矿端支撑有所增强，另一方面国内行业反内卷题材从情绪方面提振，同时氧化铝仓单持续去化至不足2万吨的低位，虚实比高位，挤仓风险升温。 金瑞期货 滕聪：我们觉得需要分两个阶段看，前期近月氧化铝从3000附近一度涨至3400这一段我们觉得主要受前期低价减产和持续的仓单注销，叠加超预 期的接货，所以交割前后略有不匹配，多头平仓离场期价转跌。而近段时间，远月氧化铝近期强势上涨一是仓单库存持续去化，总体行 ...

Market Performance Review - A-shares continued to rise, with major indices except for the Sci-Tech 50 showing gains, particularly the CSI 300 which increased by 1.54%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 rose by 0.81% and 0.56% respectively, indicating relatively weaker performance [3][12] - All style indices experienced gains, with the financial style leading at 1.86%, while the growth style saw a significant decline compared to the previous week [3][12] - Both large and mid-cap indices outperformed small-cap indices, with the core asset indices, namely the "Mao" index and "Ning" combination, also showing increases of 1.15% and 2.23% respectively [3][12] A-share High-Frequency Data Tracking - The personal investor sentiment index remained stable, reporting a 7-day moving average of 9.49% as of July 5, down from 9.57% on June 28, indicating a shift from persistent pessimism to a more regular trading phase [4][17] - The financing transaction volume as a percentage of total A-share trading has decreased, reflecting a decline in investor enthusiasm, although there was a net inflow trend in financing this week [20][22] Industry Rotation and Dividend Value Tracking - The current market is characterized by "high speed and low intensity" in industry rotation, suggesting a sideways market trend with an average duration of about two months [23][24] - The dividend yield model indicates that pure dividend assets, particularly bank stocks, remain attractive in the context of potential further declines in domestic credit spreads following interest rate cuts [25][28] Future Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report anticipates that A-shares may experience a period of consolidation as key external factors stabilize, with a focus on internal fundamentals [30][32] - The recommended investment strategy includes a "barbell strategy" that emphasizes both high-dividend stocks in sectors like banking, railways, and utilities, as well as growth opportunities in TMT sectors such as AI applications and computing power chains [5][32]