目前全球原油市场供应充裕，价格维持于约每桶70美元的水平，属历史中低区间。尽管近期中东局势紧 张，但原油实际供应未见明显受阻。 施罗德投资资深经济师George rown及施罗德投资能源基金经理Malcolm elville指，回顾过往数据，只有 当油价升幅达50%或以上，才足以对整体通胀构成实质威胁。这需要布伦特原油价格升穿每桶100美 元，能源价格对整体通胀的影响才会变得显著。施罗德投资指出，油价和通胀之间的关系显示，油价每 上升10%，对整体通胀的影响仅为约0.1%。 施罗德投资提到，中东冲突持续扰乱金融市场，但其影响或许低于投资者预期。尽管美国出手干预，市 场反应保持冷静。布伦特原油一度升穿每桶81美元，但随即回落至过去一周的波动区间。全球冲突往往 影响通胀，继而拖累整体经济和市场表现，而能源价格是其中一个关键因素。这就是为什么在地缘政治 动荡期间，油价会成为市场焦点。 油价已反映风险溢价 霍尔木兹海峡担忧或被夸大 针对船运在理论上存在风险，但更重要的是，经霍尔木兹海峡运出的原油其实大多来自伊朗的邻国。若 伊朗意图扰乱该航道，势必涉及对国际船运采取激进行动，这不仅会令伊朗进一步陷入被全球孤立的困 境， ...

证券研究报告 石化行业周报：地缘缓解，原油回落 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间：2025-06-30 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点：目前原油价格是石化板块关注的焦点，当下原油的价格主要取决于地缘计价，但地缘进展目前具 备不确定性。此外，成品油逐步步入消费旺季，成品油库存压力减弱对油价或有支撑。 ◼ 回顾：本周因原油价格下行，申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数相对表现最差，报收2202.18点， 较上周下跌2.07%。而中信三级行业指数表现来看，本周其他石化表现在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅 1.49%。 ◼ 原油：本周价格下行。美原油库存下降，美成品油库存部分下滑。 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格稳中带涨，价差走缩。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数部分下滑，织机开工率下滑。 ◼ 烯烃：样本聚烯烃现货价格微涨，库存周内下行。 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 化、需求变化、其他等。 其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, coupled with U.S. involvement, has led to increased tensions, particularly regarding the potential closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which could have significant implications for global energy markets. Group 1: Oil Supply Impact - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil transport route, with approximately 20 million barrels of oil passing through daily, accounting for 30% of global seaborne oil trade and about 20% of global oil liquid consumption. A closure could result in a supply reduction of over 18 million barrels per day, nearly a 20% drop in global supply, potentially driving oil prices to $100 per barrel [3][4][6]. Group 2: LNG Trade Disruption - The Strait is also vital for liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, with around 95% of LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE relying on this route. A closure could lead to a 20% decrease in global LNG supply, significantly impacting energy markets in Europe and Asia, particularly raising prices in these regions [3][4]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Risks - Closing the Strait would likely trigger a global energy crisis, exacerbating geopolitical tensions. The economies of the U.S. and Europe heavily depend on Middle Eastern oil imports, and a blockage could lead to soaring energy prices and inflation, threatening economic stability, especially in Europe, which is already facing energy supply challenges due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4][6]. Group 4: Limitations of Alternative Routes - While Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some pipelines that bypass the Strait, their combined nominal capacity is only 6.7 million barrels per day, with 4.3 million barrels per day currently idle. This is insufficient to meet the daily demand of 17 million barrels, indicating that alternative routes cannot adequately mitigate the impact of a closure [6][7]. Group 5: Military and Energy Security Risks - Iran's threat to close the Strait could provoke military conflict with the U.S., which has deployed significant military resources in the region to ensure the passage remains open. Iran's growing military capabilities pose a risk of interference in the Strait, potentially escalating international tensions and complicating regional security [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant shift in market dynamics due to Trump's tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts, which have disrupted initial predictions for the year, leading to poor performance of previously favored assets like the US dollar and US stocks, while European markets and emerging markets have emerged as unexpected winners [1][2][13] Group 2 - The US dollar has experienced its worst start to the year since 2005, contrary to expectations that Trump's policies would strengthen it due to anticipated inflation and reduced likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][5] - The S&P 500 index saw a dramatic decline followed by a rapid recovery, with investor sentiment shifting significantly after Trump's decision to pause some tariffs, leading to a new historical high for the index [6][13] Group 3 - European stocks have outperformed US stocks, with the Stoxx 600 index beating the S&P 500 by 16 percentage points as of June 27, marking the best relative performance since 2016 [13] - Emerging markets have finally broken a trend of underperformance against US stocks, with a wealth increase of $1.8 trillion for shareholders in 2025, reaching a record market capitalization of $29 trillion [14] Group 4 - The Japanese yen has rebounded significantly against the dollar, with a nearly 9% decline in the dollar/yen exchange rate, reflecting a shift in market sentiment and demand for safe-haven assets [8][11] - Global bond markets are experiencing increased differentiation, with short-term government bonds performing well due to anticipated rate cuts, while long-term bonds face pressure from rising government debt [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and the EW weakened rapidly. The 380 8 - 9 month spread dropped to $4.25, the basis oscillated at a low level, the FU07 internal - external spread oscillated at - $5, and the 09 spread oscillated at + $10. There was a large amount of delivery goods in the near - month, maintaining a loose pattern [4]. - The low - sulfur crack spread rebounded, the month spread dropped to around $5, the basis weakened slightly and oscillated at $6. The LU internal - external spread remained strong, with the 09 spread oscillating at around $17 [7]. - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory increased, floating storage oscillated at a high level, low - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly. ARA's on - shore inventory increased slightly, but the inventory was still at the lowest level in the same period of history, and floating storage inventory oscillated with low - sulfur floating storage increasing. Fujairah's on - shore inventory increased significantly, and floating storage decreased slightly [7]. - This week, geopolitical risks were lifted. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, and Egypt's net imports reached a new high. The high - sulfur fundamentals were in an oscillating pattern. Currently, high - sulfur is in the peak power - generation season, the near - month internal - external spread of FU is under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. In the future, pay attention to the shipping situation in the Middle East. The LU internal - external spread is running at a high level, and pay attention to the domestic production situation [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased from $460.60 to $411.99, a change of - $1.97; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from $509.41 to $474.54, a change of $0.38; and other related spreads also had corresponding changes [2]. Singapore Fuel Oil Data - Swap data: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from $471.10 to $415.91, a change of - $7.34; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from $540.67 to $498.49, a change of $3.37 [2][6]. - Spot data: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased from $475.90 to $416.77, a change of - $10.95; the FOB VLSFO price increased from $549.45 to $504.02, a change of $2.08 [3]. Domestic FU Data - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the price of FU 01 changed from 3180 to 2864, a change of 1; the price of FU 05 changed from 3100 to 2811, a change of - 1; the price of FU 09 changed from 3385 to 3002, a change of - 17 [3]. Domestic LU Data - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the price of LU 01 changed from 3815 to 3528, a change of 29; the price of LU 05 changed from 3701 to 3434, a change of 14; the price of LU 09 changed from 3968 to 3600, a change of - 23 [4].

刚刚过去的一周（2025 年 6 月 20 日至 27 日）在全球金融市场掀起了一场显著的风险偏好回归浪潮。 在经历了数周因地缘政治紧张和货币政策不确定性带来的谨慎情绪后，市场情绪迎来了戏剧性的转变， 这主要得益于两大关键因素的共振效应。 首先，中东地区地缘政治紧张局势的显著缓解，特别是以色列与伊朗之间达成的停火协议，如同注射了 一剂强心针，迅速平息了冲突升级的担忧，移除了笼罩在投资者心头的一块乌云。 市场对此反应迅速且积极，最直接的体现便是原油价格的急剧下跌。布伦特原油从接近 80 美元的高位 迅速回落至 66 美元，这一下跌幅度是自 2023 年 3 月以来最大的单周跌幅，清晰地反映出地缘政治风险 溢价的快速蒸发。 黄金作为传统的避险资产，也因此失去了部分吸引力，连续第二周下跌，表明在风险缓解的环境下，资 金正在从避险资产流出，转向更具增长潜力的资产类别。 尽管美伊之间仍有摩擦，但双方展现出的克制和外交努力，进一步巩固了市场对局势可控的预期。此 外，美中贸易谈判风险的暂时避免，也为全球风险情绪的改善提供了额外支撑。 如果说地缘政治的缓解是点燃市场情绪的火花，那么美联储的鸽派信号则是为这场反弹提供了持续的燃 ...

Group 1 - Gold experienced a downward trend, reaching a low of 3245, influenced by optimistic trade agreements and stable geopolitical conditions, reducing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][4] - The market is expected to see significant changes this week, with attention on non-farm payroll data and central bank leaders' speeches, particularly from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [2][4] - The recent price movement of gold from May 30 to June 30 shows a cycle of highs and lows, with a peak at 3451 and a low at 3245, indicating a potential adjustment phase before a possible recovery [4][5] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices have also seen a significant decline, with Shanghai gold dropping from 793 to 762, but the bullish trend remains intact, suggesting a potential rebound if key support levels are maintained [6] - The focus for domestic gold this week is on support levels of 760 for Shanghai gold and 755 for Rongtong gold, with potential upward movement if these levels hold [6] - International silver has shown a rebound after two declines, maintaining a bullish trend, with support at 35.2 and targets at 36.5 and 37 for potential trading strategies [6][7] Group 3 - The Shanghai silver contract continues to exhibit a bullish trend, with key support at 8600 and targets at 8900 and 9000, indicating opportunities for long positions [7] - International crude oil has shown limited volatility after a significant drop, with a focus on the 64 support level for potential rebounds, while the medium-term outlook remains bullish [7][8] - Domestic fuel oil has undergone considerable adjustments but is still viewed as bullish in the long term, with expectations of reaching higher points around 3000 and 3200 [8]

棕榈油周报 2025 年 6 月 30 日 以伊停火协议生效 棕榈油高位回落 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连跌103收于4012林吉特/吨，跌幅 2.5%；棕榈油09合约跌160收于8376元/吨，跌幅1.87%； 豆油09合约跌154收于8002元/吨，跌幅1.89%；菜油09合 约跌260收于9466元/吨，跌幅2.67%；CBOT美豆油主连跌 2.42收于5 ...

邓正红软实力表示，伊朗和以色列之间的停火虽然脆弱，但至今仍在维持，地缘性软实力弱化。随着地缘政治担忧的消退，交易员已将注意力重新转向市场 基本面，而基本面继续表明下半年供应充足，供应端硬实力强势。8个欧佩克联盟成员国的增产正在加剧看空基调，石油软实力受压。邓正红理论中"商业模 式三齿轮结构"在此情境下体现为：战略齿轮——欧佩克市场份额争夺；战术齿轮——地缘风险定价模型调整；执行齿轮——实际产量与出口量变化。 【人物简介】邓正红，中国软实力之父，创立邓正红软实力思想和智库，建立软实力理论、软实力宇宙哲学、软实力函数、软实力指数工具、软实力油价分 析模型、商业模式效度齿轮结构和基于价值创新的科学-技术-产业三椎体模型，开创能源软实力、低碳软实力和产业软实力，第一个对软实力系统量化与价 值评价，拥有基于企业、城市、国家之软实力指数与软实力价值评估计算一整套自主知识产权，独家发布企业（世界软实力500强、中国上市公司软实力100 强、央企软实力排名）、城市（中国内地城市和地区软实力排序、中国国家高新区软实力排序）和国家（全球软实力100强）三大软实力排行榜，国家电网 《企业软实力丛书（核心价值、核心模式、核心实力）》 ...

2025.06.30-07.04 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 01 P A R T 黄金期货 上周黄金主要受地缘冲突、美联储政策分歧、关税政策节点及经济数据 疲软四重因素交织影响，市场在多空博弈中呈现震荡下行趋势。未来金 价需重点关注 美联储政策转向时点、全球央行购金持续性及通胀路径， 地缘政治黑天鹅事件仍是最大上行风险因子。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 预期黄金主力合约2508短期高位震荡为主，建议观望。下方支撑： 766－775，上方压力800－808。 n 本周策略建议 黄金主力合约2510短线偏空，下方支撑：754－760，上方压力784 －790。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 精选指标情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 相关数据情况 5,500,500.00 10,500,500.00 1 ...