1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass and soda ash markets are expected to oscillate, and the double - silicon market will also experience low - level oscillations [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures market oscillated yesterday. Spot market transactions were mainly for rigid demand, and trading sentiment cooled. This week, the average market price of float glass was 1,174 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.27 yuan/ton from the previous period. The enterprise start - up rate was 75.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%, and the manufacturer's inventory was 69.085 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 131,000 heavy boxes [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The production capacity of previously ignited production lines was gradually released, and supply increased month - on - month. Entering the off - season, demand was expected to weaken further, and real - estate transactions remained sluggish, leading to continued low glass consumption. Inventory remained at a high level, and the market tried to clear glass production capacity through price cuts, but there was no actual supply contraction [1] - **Strategy**: The glass market is expected to oscillate [3] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash futures market oscillated downward yesterday. In the spot market, downstream sentiment was cautious, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand replenishment. This week, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 81.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%; the output was 709,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,700 tons; and the inventory was 1.8095 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.41% [2] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: There were both resumptions and overhauls in the soda ash production, but the overhaul volume was higher than the resumption volume, resulting in a month - on - month decline in output. Demand lacked an increase and faced the expectation of a contraction in float glass supply. In the off - season, the demand for heavy soda ash was expected to weaken further. In the long run, oversupply would keep prices low [2] - **Strategy**: The soda ash market is expected to oscillate [3] Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Silicon Manganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicon manganese futures market oscillated under the influence of market sentiment. The main contract of manganese silicon futures rose 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, closing at 5,712 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the silicon manganese market oscillated. The price of the ore end remained firm, and the production enthusiasm of factories was not high. The price in the northern market of 6517 was 5,480 - 5,530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,500 - 5,550 yuan/ton. Silicon manganese production increased from a low level, pig iron production increased slightly, and silicon manganese demand increased slightly. The inventory of silicon manganese manufacturers and registered warehouse receipts were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of silicon manganese. The port inventory of manganese ore decreased slightly [4] - **Strategy**: The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate [5] Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of silicon iron futures closed at 5,390 yuan/ton, a rise of 22 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In the spot market, the silicon iron market was relatively stable, with prices fluctuating slightly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural blocks in the main production areas was 5,050 - 5,150 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was reported at 5,600 - 5,750 yuan/ton. Currently, silicon iron production increased month - on - month, demand increased slightly, and factory inventory was at a high level. Entering the consumption off - season, the consumption intensity of silicon iron would be tested. Silicon iron production capacity was relatively loose, and in the short term, prices were dragged down by costs, but the overall replenishment of silicon iron was in a healthy state [4] - **Strategy**: The silicon iron market is expected to oscillate [5]

Core Viewpoint - The polyolefin and styrene futures markets are experiencing weak fluctuations, influenced by supply-demand dynamics and seasonal demand trends [1] Polyolefin Market Summary - Polyolefin futures are showing a weak downward trend, with LLDPE09 contract closing at 7249 CNY/ton, down 0.51%, and PP09 contract at 7044 CNY/ton, down 0.68% [1] - The domestic LLDPE market price ranges from 7200 to 7750 CNY/ton, while PP market prices in different regions are 7020-7150 CNY/ton in North China, 7050-7200 CNY/ton in East China, and 7080-7220 CNY/ton in South China [1] - Supply is tightening due to increased maintenance, with PE operating rate at 72.45%, down 7.32% week-on-week, and PP operating rate at 79.26%, down 2.52% week-on-week [1] - Demand is weak due to seasonal factors, with varying operating rates across industries [1] - Inventory levels show an increase in oil inventory to 755,000 tons, up 35,000 tons week-on-week, while PE trade inventory decreased by 14,750 tons and PP social trade inventory decreased by 3,400 tons [1] - OPEC+ plans to increase production, negatively impacting oil prices, leading to a supply-demand imbalance in the polyolefin market [1] - Suggested trading strategy includes light short positions within specified price ranges for LLDPE and PP [1] Styrene Market Summary - Styrene futures are also experiencing weak fluctuations, with EB08 contract closing at 7275 CNY/ton, down 0.42%, and an increase in open interest by 6,038 contracts [1] - Spot prices for styrene are declining, with East China market at 7675 CNY/ton and South China market at 7775 CNY/ton [1] - Supply is expected to recover as facilities restart, with a weekly operating rate of 80.29%, up 1.39% week-on-week [1] - Demand is entering a seasonal downturn, with slight adjustments in operating rates for PS, EPS, and ABS [1] - Inventory levels for styrene at East China ports reached 90,500 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 16,500 tons, and an estimated 30,000 tons scheduled for arrival next week [1] - The market logic indicates a supply recovery with general downstream demand, leading to a loose supply-demand balance that pressures prices [1] - Suggested trading strategy includes light short positions on price rallies, with specific support and resistance levels for the main futures contracts [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The domestic demand continues to improve while overseas factors are causing disturbances [1][2] - In the aviation sector, the second quarter shows improved performance due to high passenger load factors and a significant drop in oil prices [1] - The express delivery sector is experiencing double-digit growth in volume, but intense price competition is affecting profitability [3][11] - The shipping industry is facing volatility in freight rates due to tariffs and geopolitical conflicts [4][5][10] Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - In Q2 2025, the cumulative ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) for major airlines shows growth compared to the same period in 2024, with increases of 5% to 12% [1] - The average oil price for aviation kerosene in Q2 2025 is 5475 RMB/ton, down 9% from Q1 and down 17% year-on-year [1] - Passenger throughput at major airports like Shanghai and Guangzhou has recovered to 109% and 115% of 2019 levels, respectively [2] Express Delivery - The express delivery volume reached 787.7 billion pieces in the first five months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.1% [3] - The industry revenue for express delivery in the same period was 592.46 billion RMB, up 10.3% year-on-year [3] - Price competition has intensified, particularly affecting franchise express companies, while leading companies like SF Express continue to show robust growth [11] Shipping - In Q2 2025, VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates averaged 42,000 USD/day, a year-on-year increase of 7% [4] - The CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) dropped to 1156 points, down 20% year-on-year, while the SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) fell to 1685 points, down 36% year-on-year [5] - The dry bulk shipping market remains weak, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) at 1465 points, down 21% year-on-year [5] Cross-Border Logistics - The average air freight rate index for outbound shipments from Shanghai in Q2 2025 is 4479 points, down 5% year-on-year [8] - The coal import volume at Ganqimaodu port was 6.28 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6% [6] High Dividend Stocks - The report suggests that the declining yield on ten-year government bonds will benefit dividend-paying stocks [12] - Recommendations include logistics and highway companies, as well as port and railway stocks [12]

Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [3] Core View - The actual sown area of U.S. cotton in the new year is higher than expected, and the supply may not show positive signs. The domestic cotton market has a tight supply-demand situation in the later stage of this year, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off-season [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,187 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,212 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton. The new-year actual sown area of U.S. cotton was 10.12 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. Internationally, the supply-side positive factors may not appear, and attention should be paid to the weather and new cotton growth in major producing countries. Domestically, the supply-demand situation is tight in the later stage, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The macro uncertainty still exists, and the continuous upward space of cotton prices is restricted [3] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [6] Core View - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply increase expectation in the Brazilian 25/26 sugar season has not changed, and the new-season production in India and Thailand is expected to increase, suppressing the ICE raw sugar price. However, the downside space of raw sugar is limited [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.55%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In the first half of June, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central-southern region of Brazil decreased by 21.49% year-on-year, and the sugar production decreased by 22.12% year-on-year [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply pressure has been largely reflected, and the downside space of raw sugar is limited. The upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is restricted, and attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar and the substitute import policy [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy, focusing on the Brazilian sugar production estimate and the domestic import rhythm [6] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [9] Core View - The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,026 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-0.75%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian needles was 5,085 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The 09 contract is mainly priced by Russian needles and Uzbek needles, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-01 宏观情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 钢材：宏观情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于2997元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3123元/吨，期货盘面成交量放大，现货市场成交情况一般 偏弱，部分地区钢厂挺价，昨日全国建材成交10.4万吨。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，钢材即将进入传统消费淡季，目前产量小幅上升，库存小幅去库，整体略好于季节性预 期。螺纹方面，现货市场成交一般，但库存持续小幅去库，对价格形成一定支撑。板材维持供需两旺格局，国内 制造业发展相对乐观，需求较稳支撑板材价格。国内低价优势下，出口钢材韧性较强，近期中美会谈取得一定成 果，宏观情绪出现好转，目前钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需 求变化情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪趋稳，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格基本持稳。贸易商报价积极性一 般，报价多随行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按 ...

涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> 市场空头氛围弥漫，商品大面积下挫；黑色系及广期所品种领跌，工业硅大跌4%，玻璃、焦煤跌近 4%，纯碱大跌3%，多晶硅、焦炭、硅铁、碳酸锂、PVC大跌2%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅(结)↑ | | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅2509 | 7765 | -4.31% | | 玻璃2509 | 979 | -3.83% | | 焦煤2509 | 809.5 | -3.92% | | 纯碱2509 | 1163 | -3.00% | | 多昌硅2508 | 32570 | -2.78% | | 佳炭2509 | 1385.0 | -2.70% | | PVC2509 | 4817 | -2.17% | | 氧化铝2509 | 2927 | -2.01% | | 硅铁2509 | 5272 | -2.01% | | 碳酸锂2509 | 61460 | -1.95% | | 对二甲苯2509 | 6734 | -1.35% | | 铁矿石2509 | 708.5 | -1.32% | | 沪锌2508 | 22145 | - ...

Manufacturing PMI Overview - June manufacturing PMI in China is 49.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction zone below 50%[3] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points; medium enterprises at 48.6%, up 1.1 percentage points; small enterprises at 47.3%, down 2 percentage points, indicating significant divergence in performance across different enterprise sizes[4] Production and Demand Indicators - The production index for June is 51%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May, indicating continued expansion[4] - New orders index stands at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, while new export orders are at 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points, suggesting stronger domestic demand compared to external demand[4][12] - The index representing supply-demand balance (new orders minus finished goods inventory) is at 2.1%, down 1.2 percentage points, indicating weakened effective demand[4][13] Inventory and Price Trends - Finished goods inventory index is at 48.1%, up 1.6 percentage points; raw materials inventory index is at 48%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a slight recovery in inventory levels[5][20] - The factory price index is at 46.2%, up 1.5 percentage points, while major raw material purchase price index is at 48.4%, also up 1.5 percentage points, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector[5][20] Employment and Supplier Dynamics - Employment index for June is at 47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points, indicating a contraction in employment conditions, particularly among small enterprises[22] - Supplier delivery time index is at 50.2%, up 0.2 percentage points, suggesting slight delays in supplier deliveries[22] Overall Economic Outlook - The overall expectation for production activities in June is at 52.0%, down 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a pessimistic outlook among manufacturing enterprises[14][16] - The non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, with the construction sector showing a notable increase to 52.8%, while the service sector slightly declined to 50.1%[5][12]

Supply and Demand - Domestic PX operating rates decreased slightly to 83.8% (-1.8%) while Asian PX operating rates fell to 73% (-1.3%) [2] - Yisheng New Materials reduced its operating capacity to 3.6 million tons, leading to PTA operating rates dropping to 77.7% (-1.4%) [2] Market Outlook - Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the likelihood of escalation remains low, with limited support for oil prices from OPEC+ expected to increase production in August [3] - Domestic PX facilities are anticipated to undergo maintenance in July, while downstream PTA and polyester operating rates are relatively high, alongside new PTA production expected in Q3, indicating a tight supply-demand balance for PX [3] - PXN is recovering to around $300/ton, which may lead to delays in maintenance plans for some facilities, but weak terminal demand and limited oil price support may restrict PX rebound potential [3] - Short-term PX price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 6600-6900, with caution advised near the upper boundary [3] Pricing and Cost - On June 30, Asian PX prices increased by $6/ton to $874/ton, equivalent to 7211 RMB/ton, while PXN was around $301/ton [1] - PX prices remained under pressure from raw material trends, with the market showing a relatively strong trading atmosphere despite some fluctuations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may still rise due to tight raw material supply and low inventory, but the upward momentum is expected to weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory but constrained by consumption feedback, and are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. - Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is expected to be limited under weak domestic consumption [4]. - Zinc prices are boosted by the strike at a Peruvian smelter and the change in the LME market structure, but the large - scale release of zinc ingots is expected [5]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range due to short - term supply shortages and weak terminal demand [6]. - Nickel prices may decline due to the oversupply of refined nickel and the expected loosening of nickel ore supply [7]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be under pressure due to high production and low demand [9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to short at high prices [11]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile due to high production and weak demand [13]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the change in the premium over the spot [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price**: LME copper fell 0.01% to $9,878/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79,780 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 650 to 90,625 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 26,000 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: China's refined copper production in June decreased by 0.3% month - on - month and increased by 12.9% year - on - year, and is expected to increase by 1.4% in July [1]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices may still rise but the upward momentum will weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum rose 0.1% to $2,597/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,590 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic major consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.5 to 468,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.1 to 346,000 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic aluminum inventory is at a multi - year low, but consumption feedback increases as prices rise [3]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index rose 0.46% to 17,204 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 16.5 to $2,048/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 52,300 tons, and LME lead inventory was 273,400 tons [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Primary supply remains high, secondary supply is tight, and downstream procurement improves [4]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.39% to 22,464 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 10 to $2,780/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 80,600 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 119,200 tons [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc ore supply is high, but some smelters convert production, and a Peruvian smelter has a strike [5]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are boosted by the strike and market structure change [5]. Tin - **Price**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton in China and 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton in LME [6]. - **Inventory**: National major market tin ingot social inventory increased by 361 to 9,266 tons [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Tin ore supply is short - term tight, but terminal demand is weak [6]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices are expected to be in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel and 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton for LME nickel [7]. - **Inventory**: Not emphasized in significant changes. - **Supply and Demand**: Refined nickel is in oversupply, and nickel ore supply is expected to loosen [7]. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices may decline [7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: MMLC late - market reported 61,177 yuan, and LC2509 closed at 62,260 yuan, down 1.64% [9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic lithium carbonate inventory continues to increase at a high level [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production hits a record high, and demand is in the off - season [9]. - **Outlook**: Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure [9]. Alumina - **Price**: Alumina index rose 0.25% to 2,975 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inventory**: Not emphasized in significant changes. - **Supply and Demand**: Capacity is in excess, and ore price is the core contradiction [11]. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and short at high prices [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: Stainless steel main contract closed at 12,610 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [13]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased to 1.1544 million tons, and 300 - series inventory decreased by 1.03% [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: July production is still high, and terminal demand has not improved [13]. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile [13]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: AD2511 contract closed at 19,780 yuan/ton, up 0.08% [16]. - **Inventory**: Three - place regenerated aluminum alloy ingot social inventory increased by 0.02 to 20,000 tons [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak in the off - season, and prices follow aluminum prices [16]. - **Outlook**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [16].

油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 7 月 1 日 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯 ...