原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月9日 曹剑兰 Z0019556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2月8日 | 5月7日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 780.0 | 792.5 | -12.5 | -1.58% | | | 原木2509 | 794.5 | 803.0 | -8.5 | -1.06% | | | 原木2511 | 800.5 | 808.0 | -7.5 | -0.93% | | | 7-9价差 | -14.5 | -10.5 | -4.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -6.0 | -5.0 | -1.0 | | | | 7-11价差 | -20.5 | -15.5 | -5.0 | | | | 07合约基差 | -20.0 | -32.5 | 12.5 | | | | 09合约基差 | -34.5 | -43.0 | 8.5 | | 元/立方米 | | 11合约基差 | -40.5 | -48.0 | 7.5 | | | | 日 ...

| 锌产业期现日报 | | --- | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月9日 星期五 FE Z0015979 | 价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 0#锌锭 | 22850 | 22770 | +80.00 | 0.35% | 元/吨 | | 升贴水 | 500 | 85 | +415.00 | / | 元/吨 | | SMM 0#锌锭 (广东) | 22850 | 22770 | +80.00 | 0.35% | 元/吨 | | 升贴水(广东) | 500 | ਦਾ ਦ | -15.00 | / | 元/吨 | | 比价和盈亏 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | 629 | 713 | -84.78 | | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.68 | 8.67 | +0.01 | | / | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | | ...

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil from Rizhao Cargill is 8080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - International soybean situation: It is currently the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season, with Brazilian soybean harvesting almost completed. South American new - crop harvest is likely to be abundant [2] - Domestic industry situation: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [2] - Reference view: The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3100 yuan/ton (+10), Tianjin 3300 yuan/ton (unchanged), Rizhao 3100 yuan/ton (+10), Dongguan 3270 yuan/ton (+50) [3] - Market analysis: Macro - level, Sino - U.S. economic and trade talks will be held in Switzerland. The market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak. In the domestic market, pay attention to the clearance of Brazilian soybeans after the holiday. Currently, the spot is tight, but it will ease as more soybeans arrive and oil mills resume operation. Downstream replenishment after the holiday may boost short - term trading volume [3] - Reference view: Soybean meal may fluctuate in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn are 2184 yuan/ton in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia, 2404 yuan/ton in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2260 - 2270 yuan/ton and 2250 - 2270 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Market analysis: The Sino - U.S. tariff dispute has limited impact on the corn market due to China's decreasing import dependence and import from Brazil. Domestically, the supply is tight during the new - old grain transition period, and the downstream demand is weak [4] - Reference view: The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain gap period, and the corn price is likely to rise. It is advisable to take a short - term long position [4] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78290 - 78580 yuan, down 145 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 42.61, down 0.09 [5] - Market analysis: The Fed maintains the interest rate, and there are uncertainties. Domestic policies support the market. The raw material supply problem persists, and the copper inventory in China is declining rapidly [6] - Reference view: The monthly K - line of copper price is balanced. In the short term, it is advisable to participate based on the moving average system [6] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 65700 yuan/ton (- 500) and 64000 yuan/ton (- 500) respectively, with a price difference of 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7] - Market analysis: The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is increasing, and the demand is improving but not strong enough [7] - Inventory situation: The weekly inventory is increasing. As of April 24, the weekly inventory is 131864 tons (+259). The monthly inventory in March increased by 47% year - on - year and 17% month - on - month [8] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short at high prices [8] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3160 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [9] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are improving, with a neutral - low valuation. The cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [9] - Reference view: After the macro - level negative factors are digested, it is advisable to take a long position at low prices for far - month contracts after May [9] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of coking coal (Meng 5) is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton. The port inventories of imported coking coal and coke are 337.38 million tons and 246.10 million tons respectively [10] - Market analysis: The supply is loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [10] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke may rebound weakly at a low level, but the upward space is limited [10] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 99.95, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 760 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 762 yuan [11] - Market analysis: The supply and demand factors are mixed. The global shipping volume has decreased slightly, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has increased, but the overseas demand is differentiated. The U.S. tariff policy has an impact on the market [11] - Reference view: The iron ore 2505 contract may fluctuate in the short term. Traders should be cautious [11] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: The Fed's interest - rate decision and geopolitical conflicts have an impact on the market. OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The demand may be affected by the trade war in the second quarter [12] - Reference view: The WTI main contract may fluctuate between 55 - 60 US dollars per barrel [12] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The impact of the U.S. "equal - tariff" policy on rubber prices has been mostly priced in. The supply is increasing as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees start to be tapped. The global supply and demand are both loose, and the trade - war narrative may affect the demand [13] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. The main contract has support around 14,000 yuan/ton [13] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4660 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [14] - Market analysis: The production enterprise operating rate has increased slightly. The demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and the inventory has decreased [14] - Reference view: The futures price may fluctuate at a low level due to weak demand [14] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1415 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream prices in different regions are also unchanged [15] - Market analysis: The operating rate has decreased slightly, the production has decreased, the inventory has increased slightly, and the demand is average. The downstream is more willing to buy low - priced goods [15] - Reference view: The futures market may fluctuate widely in the short term [15]

美银全球研究全球大宗商品研究团队在其报告中，就黄金价格走势给出了更为细致的研判。基于其专业 的供需模型分析，该团队认为，从理论层面而言，黄金价格具备轻松突破 3000 美元 / 盎司关口的潜 力。模型数据显示，在当前全球经济环境下，黄金的供需关系正逐渐向供不应求倾斜，这为金价上涨提 供了基本面支撑。一方面，随着全球央行纷纷采取宽松货币政策，货币供应量增加，纸币贬值预期增 强，使得黄金作为硬通货的吸引力进一步提升;另一方面，黄金矿产资源的开采难度不断加大，新增供 给有限，而工业需求与投资需求却在稳步增长，供需缺口的扩大为金价上行提供了动力。 但该团队同时指出，即便金价具备上行潜力，在当前市场环境下，短期内也难以突破 3500 美元 / 盎司 的高位，尤其是在贸易争端出现实质性缓解的情况下。贸易局势缓和会促使全球经济增长预期改善，投 资者风险偏好回升，资金将从避险资产流向风险资产，黄金价格的上涨动能会因此减弱。此外，黄金价 美联储的警告并非空穴来风。关税政策的实施与变动，严重干扰了全球供应链的稳定运行，增加了企业 生产成本与经营风险，进而对宏观经济增长前景蒙上阴影。在这种充满不确定性的环境下，投资者纷纷 将目光转 ...

Group 1 - PTA futures main contract experienced a fluctuation upward, reaching a peak of 4548.00 yuan, closing at 4546.00 yuan with a rise of 1.97% [1] - Supply side remains under pressure due to maintenance of facilities post-holiday, while demand from polyester maintains a high operating rate, although terminal weaving operating rates are weak [2] - Overall, the supply-demand situation for PTA is acceptable, with a continued inventory reduction pattern [2] Group 2 - Ningzheng Futures suggests a transitional observation for PTA, noting a significant decline in downstream weaving and texturing operating rates by 54% and 72% respectively [3] - Expectations for polyester operating rates to decline after May, indicating a potential weakening in PTA supply-demand dynamics [3] - Guoxin Futures indicates that PTA will primarily follow cost fluctuations, with seasonal declines in terminal weaving loads but high polyester operating rates still present [4] Group 3 - The market is experiencing significant supply reduction due to multiple facility maintenance, leading to accelerated inventory depletion [4] - Trade war news is becoming less tense, with attention on future negotiation progress [4] - Recommendations include short-term low buying strategies based on cost fluctuations, particularly focusing on oil price trends [4]

Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 5月7日 | 5月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乱胶(SCRWF):上海 | 14700 | 14700 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -110 | -115 | 5 | 4.35% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14400 | 14450 | -50 | -0.35% | | | 非标价差 | -410 | -365 | -45 | -12.33% | | | 杯胶：国际市场:FOB中间价 | રૂડે રેટ | 53.05 | 0.50 | 0.94% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 59.50 | 59.25 | 0.25 | 0.42% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 13000 | 13000 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 | 13700 | 13700 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 ...

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 注册信心 | 产业链期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合同业务资格:证监存可 2011 1292号 問敏波 Z0015979 | 2025年5月8日 | | | | | | 价格及价差 | | | | | | | 现值 | | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM A00铝 | 19610 | 19850 | -240.0 | -1.21% | 元/吨 | | SMM A00铝升贴水 | -20 | -20 | 0.0 | / | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 | 19610 | 19840 | -230.0 | -1.16% | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 升贴水 | -20 | -30 | 10.0 | / | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(山东)-平均价 | 2850 | 2850 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(河南)-平均价 | 2900 | 2900 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(山西)-平均价 | 2900 | ...

【今日聚烯烃和苯乙烯市场动态】今日，聚烯烃冲高回落，小幅收涨。LLDPE09 合约收 7046 元/吨， 涨 0.51%，持仓变化-12547 手；PP09 合约收 7029 元/吨，涨 0.34%，持仓变化-14290 手。 聚乙烯现货价偏弱调整，石化企业下调部分出厂价，下游心态谨慎，备货积极性不高，国内 LLDPE 市 场主流价格在 7270-7900 元/吨。PP市场价格窄幅整理，部分上游厂商下调出厂价，下游因订单跟进不 足，接盘意愿不高。华北拉丝主流价格在 7050-7290 元/吨，华东拉丝主流价格在 7100-7250 元/吨，华 南拉丝主流价格在 7180-7380 元/吨。 PE供应压力攀升，PP 装置检修集中，供应压力稍有释缓。截至 4 月 30 日当周，PE 开工率为 81.02%， 周环比-0.14%，PP 开工率 76.30%，周环比-0.15%。 下游需求季节性走弱。截止 4 月 30 日当周，农膜开工率 28%，包装 51%（-1%），单丝 45% （+1%），薄膜 44%（-1%），中空 44%（持平），管材 38%（-2%）；塑编开工率 45%（-2%），注 塑开工率 47%（ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 77,100 - 78,700 in the short - term and 66,000 - 90,000 in the medium - term, with a recommended shock operation strategy. The supply is tightening, and demand pre - placement supports prices, but there are risks of short - squeeze and weakening demand in the off - season [1][2]. - For protein meal, considering the easing of the trade war, soybean meal is regarded as bearish in the short - term, with a far - strong and near - weak pattern in the medium - term. Recommended strategies include buying at - the - money straddle options of soybean meal 2509 and considering exiting the short 2507 - long 2601 position [3][5]. - Petroleum asphalt is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term and under pressure in the long - term. The recommended strategy is to hold the long asphalt - short high - sulfur fuel oil position [6][8]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Intraday and Medium - term Views**: Intraday view is a 77,100 - 78,700 range fluctuation; medium - term view is a 66,000 - 90,000 range fluctuation. Recommended strategy is shock operation [1]. - **Core Logic**: - **Macro**: The Fed will announce the interest rate decision on May 8 at 2:00 am [1]. - **Supply**: Chile's copper and copper ore exports to China in April dropped to over - one - year lows. Aurubis will start an $800 million US scrap copper smelter in 2025. Altonorte smelter may extend maintenance, affecting South American electrolytic copper production [1]. - **Demand**: In April 2025, the operating rate of copper wire enterprises was 81.31%, up 7.71 percentage points month - on - month and 7.89 percentage points year - on - year. After the increase in copper prices, trading activity in some regions declined [2]. - **Inventory**: On May 7, LME copper inventory decreased by 1,650 tons to 193,975 tons, and SHFE copper warrants decreased by 3,381 tons to 21,541 tons [2]. - **Outlook**: Demand pre - placement supports copper prices, but there are risks of short - squeeze and weakening demand in the off - season [2]. Protein Meal - **Intraday and Medium - term Views**: Intraday view is bearish on soybean meal due to trade war easing; medium - term view is far - strong and near - weak for soybean meal. Recommended strategies are buying at - the - money straddle options of soybean meal 2509 and considering exiting the short 2507 - long 2601 position [3][5]. - **Core Logic**: - **Trade War**: There are signs of trade war easing, with the US Treasury Secretary suggesting partial cancellation of tariffs on China. Sino - US high - level economic and trade talks are rumored to be held in Switzerland from May 9 - 12 [3]. - **International Soybeans**: As of April 30, 88% of soybeans in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul have been harvested. StoneX slightly raised Brazil's soybean production to 168 million tons. As of May 4, the US soybean planting rate was 30%, higher than the five - year average of 23%. China's second - quarter Brazilian soybean arrivals are expected to be between 20 and 30 million tons [4]. - **Rapeseed**: After the holiday, the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference was flat compared to before the holiday. Canada's 2025 rapeseed planting area is expected to be 21.64 million acres, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease. Canada's 25/26 ending inventory forecast was raised from 1 million tons to 2 million tons [4]. - **Outlook**: In the second quarter, there is a large supply of new Brazilian soybeans and short - term trade war easing. It is recommended to trade short - term volatility [5]. Petroleum Asphalt - **Intraday and Medium - term Views**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly; medium - term view is under pressure. Recommended strategy is to hold the long asphalt - short high - sulfur fuel oil position [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: - **Supply**: Local refineries' asphalt production losses decreased this week, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate rose slightly to 28.8% as of May 6. The weekly asphalt production was 488,000 tons as of May 6, an increase of 7,000 tons. Production is expected to continue to increase [7]. - **Demand**: Rain in the south affects road construction, but demand in other regions is expected to improve. Overall, the May demand outlook is positive. Both factory and social inventories have declined [7]. - **Cost**: Kazakhstan's planned production cuts and limited growth in the US Permian Basin support oil prices, but Trump's low - oil - price policy limits the upside. The discount of diluted asphalt has risen to $5.3 per barrel [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, improved demand and cost support lead to an oscillating - strong trend. In the long - term, increased supply and uncertain demand may put pressure on prices if oil prices decline [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Tin - Market sentiment has improved, driving up tin prices. However, considering the gradual recovery of the supply side and pessimistic demand expectations, a bearish view on the rebound of tin prices is maintained. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of raw materials on the supply side [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the futures price is under pressure in the short - term due to the expected decline in ore prices, while the spot price provides some support. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. For electrolytic aluminum, inventory depletion, easing tariff attitudes, and domestic stimulus policy expectations support aluminum prices. But as domestic demand transitions to the off - season, aluminum prices may face downward pressure in the future. The short - term focus is on post - holiday consumption and the pressure around 20,000 yuan/ton [2]. Zinc - In the pessimistic scenario, if tariff policies lead to insufficient terminal consumption, the zinc price center may shift downward. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - selling approach is recommended, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [4]. Copper - Macroscopically, the issue of reciprocal tariffs is the core variable for asset pricing. The pressure of tariffs has slightly eased, and attention should be paid to the introduction of domestic monetary and fiscal policies. Fundamentally, the supply of raw materials is still tight, and the demand is resilient. In the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile, with the main focus on the pressure level of 77,500 - 78,500 yuan/ton [6]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the situation is stable. With the implementation of Indonesian policies and relatively firm raw material nickel ore, there is still cost support for nickel prices. However, the medium - term supply is abundant, restricting the upward space. In the short - term, the macro situation is still uncertain, and the fundamentals change little. The disk is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, with the main reference range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [8]. Stainless Steel - The ore end provides some support for prices, while the nickel - iron price is weak. In the short - term, the supply is relatively abundant, domestic demand has some resilience but recovers slowly, and export demand is blocked. The inventory pressure has slightly eased. Considering the cost - demand game and the uncertain macro - environment, the disk is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals lack positive factors. The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is generally stable but fails to meet expectations. The inventory is still high. In the short - term, the disk is expected to remain weakly operating, with the main reference range of 65,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the performance of funds around 65,000 yuan/ton [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.38%, SMM 1 tin premium increased by 12.50%. Import profit and loss increased by 32.10%. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 90.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In March, tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75%, refined tin imports increased by 12.41%, and exports decreased by 29.50%. Indonesian refined tin exports increased by 46.15%. The SMM refined tin average operating rate in March increased by 8.75% [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory decreased by 3.68%, social inventory decreased by 5.57%, SHEF daily inventory decreased by 0.98%, and LME inventory increased by 1.69% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.05%, and the import profit and loss increased. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 75 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17%, electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91%. In March, electrolytic aluminum imports increased by 2.2 million tons, and exports increased by 0.5 million tons. The aluminum profile operating rate decreased by 0.84%, and the aluminum cable operating rate increased by 0.94% [2]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 1.09%, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.22%, and the import profit and loss changed. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 185 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, in March, imports increased by 9.47%, and exports decreased by 77.37%. The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 12.83%, the die - casting zinc alloy operating rate decreased by 9.97%, and the zinc oxide operating rate decreased by 1.20% [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 2.10%, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.50% [4]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.31%, the refined - scrap price difference increased by 25.70%, and the import profit and loss increased. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 80 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, in March, imports increased by 15.24%. The electrolytic copper rod operating rate increased, and various inventories decreased, such as the SHFE inventory decreasing by 23.51% [6]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.32%, and the futures import profit and loss increased by 19.50%. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2506 - 2507 spread decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel increased by 1.85%, and the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte production of electrowon nickel increased by 2.47% [8]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 2.62%, imports increased by 8.18%. SHFE inventory decreased by 3.08%, social inventory decreased by 1.25%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.92% [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained stable, and the futures - spot price difference decreased by 11.82%. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2506 - 2507 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [10]. - **Raw Material Price**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.98%, and the price of 304 waste stainless steel increased by 1.05% [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 11.37%, Indonesian production decreased by 6.67%. Stainless steel imports decreased by 19.45%, exports increased by 70.98%, and net exports increased by 196.56%. The 300 - series social inventory increased by 0.94% [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.25%, and some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65%, battery - grade lithium carbonate production decreased by 9.55%, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate production increased by 0.27%. In March, lithium carbonate demand increased by 15.07%, imports increased by 47.03%, and exports decreased by 47.25% [13]. - **Inventory**: In March, the total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 16.79%, downstream inventory increased by 27.94%, and smelter inventory increased by 9.40% [13].