（来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 项目承担：北京棉花展望信息咨询有限责任公司 监测对象：18个主要棉花生产、消费省的100家棉纺织厂 11月国内外棉市在供需变化、宏观政策等多重因素影响下，价格延续10月以来震荡走势，整体呈先跌后涨、内强外弱的特点。新棉集中上市供应增加、纺织 市场进入淡季后需求转弱，给棉价带来一定压力，而促消费政策出台、美联储降息预期回升等宏观因素又推动市场情绪回暖，棉价受到支撑，国内期现货价 格均以当月最高点报收，国际棉价则弱于国内，内外棉价差有所扩大。 一、宏观环境向好推动国内棉价上涨 11月上中旬国内新棉加工进入高峰期，上市资源持续增加，市场供应总体宽松，而纺织厂季节性需求下降，国内现货价格震荡走弱，中国棉花价格指数由月 初的14859元/吨下跌至最低14779元/吨。月下旬，相关部门联合印发《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》，加上中美元首通话显示两 国关系总体稳定向好，带动市场信心回升，国内棉价持续反弹，中国棉花价格指数月底收于最高点14896元/吨，月均价14831元/吨，环比上涨67元，同比下 跌497元。 三、长绒棉需求稳定 价格保持平稳 11月下游高支纱 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors are the biggest short - term influence on crude oil, with the focus on the geopolitical developments in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela [1][2]. - After the US announced a blockade on Venezuelan oil exports, the trading logic of asphalt has shifted from cost - driven to supply - contraction - expected, and the view on the asphalt variety has turned bullish [2]. - In the short term, pay attention to whether the "anti - involution" expectation similar to that in July will drive an intraday upward movement. For intraday unilateral long - position varieties in the energy and chemical sector, priority should be given to PX, synthetic rubber, PVC, and asphalt [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: With the US - Russia - Ukraine talks and the advancement of the cease - fire expectation, oil prices weakened. However, the announcement of sanctions on Venezuela led to a sharp rebound in oil prices. Geopolitical factors are the greatest uncertainty for oil price increases under the background of oversupply. Pay attention to the possible intensification of sanctions against Russia and the actual action against Venezuela [2][3][4]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term decline. The price increased on reduced positions today, and the short - term upper pressure is around 432. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [4]. (2) Asphalt - Logic: Previously, asphalt traded based on the crude oil cost logic. The US blockade on Venezuelan oil exports will directly affect domestic asphalt supply, and the trading logic has shifted to supply contraction, with a short - term bullish view [7]. - Technical analysis: The short - term hourly - level decline has ended. Today's price is expected to correct on reduced positions. The strategy is to look for low - buying opportunities after the correction ends on the hourly level [7]. (3) Styrene - Logic: Port inventory has continued to decline, but the year - on - year pressure is still relatively large. With a medium - term bearish view, the short - term rebound is driven by the news of the NDRC's emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects [10]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term oscillation, and today's intraday trend is oscillatory. The hourly - level structure has weakened, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 6325 - 6690. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [10]. (4) Rubber - Logic: There are no major short - term contradictions in the rubber market. The Thailand - Cambodia conflict has limited impact on rubber supply. The supply - demand side lacks major contradictions, and the market should be treated with an oscillatory view [15]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term oscillation. Today's intraday trend is oscillatory, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [15]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The core logic of synthetic rubber is guided by its raw material, butadiene. The inventory of butadiene has decreased significantly, and its supply - demand situation has improved in the short term. The short - term strengthening of butadiene may drive synthetic rubber to have an hourly - level upward trend [20]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term increase. Today's price corrected on reduced positions, and the short - term lower support is around 10760. The hourly - level strategy is to hold long positions, with the take - profit reference at around 10750 [20]. (6) PX - Logic: There are no new production capacity plans for PX in the next six months, and there are multiple device maintenance plans in the second quarter of next year. The medium - term supply pressure is not large. The short - term demand is expected to weaken, but the overall supply - demand is still balanced. Pay attention to the geopolitical impact on the cost - end crude oil and the possible short - term upward movement driven by the NDRC's policy [23]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term increase. Today's price increased on increased positions, continuing the short - term upward trend. The hourly - level standard support is around 6700. The hourly - level strategy is to hold long positions, with the stop - loss reference at around 6700 [23]. (7) PTA - Logic: PTA is under pressure due to seasonal decline in polyester demand and short - term inventory accumulation. However, the high profit of upstream PX means that the supply of PTA is not expected to decline significantly, and it mainly follows the cost of PX in the short term [27]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term increase. Today's price increased on increased positions, continuing the short - term upward trend. The hourly - level support is around 4655. The hourly - level strategy is to hold long positions, with the stop - loss reference at around 4655 [27]. (8) PP - Logic: The fundamental situation of PP - plastics remains loose, but the oversold market and the news of the NDRC's policy have driven a short - term rebound [28]. - Technical analysis: The short - term hourly - level decline may have ended. Today's intraday trend is oscillatory. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and 15 - minute long positions can be held, with the stop - loss reference at around 6230 [28]. (9) Methanol - Logic: The port inventory has flowed to the inland, showing continuous inventory decline, but the downstream MTO maintenance has led to a weak expectation. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the methanol market may rebound in the short term [31]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline and a short - term increase. Today's price increased on reduced positions, and the short - term lower support is around 2120. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and first look for low - buying opportunities after the correction around 2150 on the 15 - minute cycle [31]. (10) PVC - Logic: The supply - demand situation of PVC is characterized by high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, but its current valuation is low. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the market may rebound in the short term [35]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term increase. Today's price continued to rise, and the short - term lower support is around 4680. The hourly - level strategy is to hold long positions, with the take - profit reference at around 4630 [35]. (11) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The losses of ethylene glycol plants have expanded, and the maintenance plans have increased, which is expected to reduce the domestic supply pressure. However, the port inventory is still accumulating, putting pressure on the market. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the market may rebound in the short term [39]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term decline. Today's intraday trend is oscillatory, and the short - term upper pressure is still around 3815 (05 contract). The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [39]. (12) Plastic - Logic: The fundamental situation of PP - plastics remains loose, but the oversold market and the news of the NDRC's policy have driven a short - term rebound [41]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level trend shows a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level trend is a short - term decline. Today's intraday trend is oscillatory, and the short - term upper pressure is still around 6550. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [41]. (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory situation of soda ash continues, and the inventory decline rate has slowed down recently. The short - term inventory pressure has improved, but the medium - term fundamentals have not reversed. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the market may rebound in the short term, and the remaining short positions established in August can be closed for profit [43]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term increase. Today's price increased on reduced positions, and the short - term lower support is around 1155. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [43]. (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory situation of caustic soda remains, and the demand is weak in the traditional off - season. There is no sign of a reversal in the supply - demand situation, but there is no more space for short selling in the market. Affected by the NDRC's policy, the market may rebound in the short term [47]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level trend shows a short - term increase. Today's price increased on reduced positions and broke through the upper short - term pressure of 2180, with the short - term lower support at around 2135. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [47].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 新能源及有色组 昨日碳酸锂盘面大涨，主力合约最高触及109860元/吨，接近涨停，最终收于108620元/吨，涨幅 7.61%，成交量115.86万手，较前日明显放量，持仓量66.86万手，日增2562手。今日涨幅创近期新高， 价格突破2024年5月以来高点。 近期碳酸锂方面供应端干扰频发，先有玻利维亚新任总统推动终止与部分中国锂矿开采合同、转而与美 国达成合作协议的消息传出，今日江西宜春地区继宁德时代枧下窝矿被关停后，当地拟注销27项采矿许 可证。供应端政策收紧引发的短缺预期，成为本周碳酸锂价格大幅上涨的主要因素。此外需求端储能方 面依然保持火热态势，社会库存延续下降趋势，供应紧张局面未改。基本面支撑碳酸锂价格维持高位并 继续上探，预计短期内仍将维持强势。 但需注意2026年碳酸锂供需整体仍然呈现过剩态势，当前价格已处于两年内高位，且储能需求的延续性 以及供应干扰的可持续性存疑。需警惕价格急涨带来的风险，未来可关注供应端释放节奏以及库存拐点 的到来。 风险提示：关注锂矿复产进展以及消费与库存拐点。 投资咨询业务资格： ...

客户端 原油： 周三油价重心大幅反弹，其中WTI 1月合约收盘上涨0.67美元至55.94美元/桶，涨幅1.21%。布伦特2月合 约收盘上涨0.76美元至59.68美元/桶，涨幅1.29%。随后在电子盘时间，油价再度拉涨。SC2601夜盘以 424.9元/桶收盘，上涨1.6元/桶，涨幅为0.38%。特朗普下令全面封锁所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮， 受此影响，油价低位反弹。特朗普在社交媒体上发文说，认定委内瑞拉现政府是"外国恐怖组织"。近 来，特朗普多次公开宣称，美国将开始对加勒比海地区的"毒贩"实施陆地打击，并提及委内瑞拉和哥伦 比亚。一个星期前，美国在委内瑞拉海岸扣押了一艘受制裁的油轮。EIA公布的库存报告显示，上周美 国原油库存减少，汽油和馏分油库存增加。数据显示，截至12月12日当周，美国原油库存减少127.4万 桶至4.24417亿桶。美国汽油库存增加480.8万桶至2.25627亿桶。包括柴油和取暖油在内的馏分油库存增 加171.2万桶至1.185亿桶。当周，俄克拉荷马州库欣交割中心的原油库存减少74.2万桶至2086万桶。其 中原油库存下降，成品油库存上升。从供应维度来看，巴西的增长将主要受到新的 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中央财办对中央经济⼯作会议的解读中，对扩⼤内需、"反内卷"、 稳定房地产市场等热点进⾏了深⼊分析，政策基调仍显积极。淡季深 ⼊需求转弱，钢材基本⾯难⾔亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本⽀撑， 盘⾯低位反弹。同时冬储补库预期⽀撑下铁矿盘⾯表现较强，煤焦估 值修复反弹。玻纯盘⾯价格企稳反弹，但供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上 ⽅空间。 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-18 政策及冬储预期仍有⽀撑，盘⾯表现偏 强 中央财办对中央经济工作会议的解读中，对扩大内需、"反内卷"、 稳定房地产市场等热点进行了深入分析，政策基调仍显积极。淡季深 入需求转弱，钢材基本面难言亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本支撑， 盘面低位反弹。同时冬储补库预期支撑下铁矿盘面表现较强，煤焦估 值修复反弹。玻纯盘面价格企稳反弹，但供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上 方空间。 1. 铁元素方面：年底钢厂检修增多，铁矿刚需支撑逐渐弱化，港口 库存累积，钢厂补库需求仍未明显释放，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废 钢供需偏稳，库存累积，但电炉利润尚可，长、短流程钢企废钢需求 仍有支撑，预计现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-17 供需两旺，碳酸锂维持高位震荡 碳酸锂整体维持偏强震荡态势，虽盘中受短期压力回调，但长期上涨趋势的支撑因素仍在。目前，供应端的不确 定性是支撑价格偏强的关键因素之一，国内外供应干扰消息层出不穷。整体来看，短期大概率维持高位震荡，需 聚焦产能释放节奏与资金动向，警惕供需边际变化带来的波动加剧。 单边：短期观望为主 跨期：无 风险 市场分析 2025-12-16，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于101500元/吨，收于100600元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化1.27%。当日 成交量为597317手，持仓量为666027手，前一交易日持仓量662185手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-5170元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单15286手，较上个交易日变化26手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价94000-97700元/吨，较前一交易日变化700元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价92700-94000元/吨，较前一交易日变化700元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1260美元/吨，较前一日变化40美元/吨。据SMM 方面消息，下游材料厂持谨慎观望态度，采购意愿不强。 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - Cotton: In the short term, both international and domestic cotton markets face supply pressure and weak demand, but the downside space is limited. In the medium - long term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range. For domestic cotton, new - year supply - demand is not expected to be too loose, and cotton prices can be optimistically viewed after seasonal pressure [1][2] - Sugar: The global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 25/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - medium - term rebound space of international sugar prices is limited. Zhengzhou sugar has low valuation, and the short - term downside space is also limited [4] - Pulp: Although the supply - demand situation has not been substantially improved, the previous negative factors have been digested, and the marginal incremental demand for pulp raw materials in the future may support the pulp price to stabilize gradually [7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 13,945 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,968 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,130 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. As of December 13, the planting progress of 2025/26 Brazilian cotton was 10.1%, up 4.8 percentage points month - on - month and 2.1 percentage points slower year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - International: In the 25/26 season, global cotton production and demand both decreased, and the ending inventory slightly increased. US cotton production continued to increase slightly, with obvious inventory - building pressure. In the short term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and in the medium - long term, the downside space is limited [1] - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton continued to increase in production. Short - term supply is abundant, but the hedging resistance on the futures market has weakened. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the downside space of cotton prices is limited [1] Strategy - Be neutral to bullish, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract at low prices. Focus on the change of the cotton target price policy next year [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,133 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton (-1.42%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,260 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 1.6008 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of December, a year - on - year increase of 37.65% [3] Market Analysis - International: The short - term rebound of raw sugar futures is supported, but the global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 25/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - medium - term rebound space is limited. - Domestic: The supply of Zhengzhou sugar is abundant in the short term, and the fundamental driving force is downward, but the low valuation limits the short - term downside space [4] Strategy - Be neutral. Pay attention to the impact of capital on the futures market, and treat it with a low - level consolidation mindset [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,468 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan/ton (-1.87%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,075 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. Most pulp prices were stable, and a few decreased slightly [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance plans. The Crofton paper mill in Canada will be permanently closed, and the Rauma pulp mill of Stora Enso will be temporarily shut down. - Demand: European port pulp inventory decreased in October. In China, although there is a large amount of finished paper production capacity, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is still at a high level, but it has decreased recently. The expansion of downstream paper production capacity in the future will increase the demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Be neutral. The previous negative factors have been digested, but the supply - demand situation has not been substantially improved, which limits the upward space of pulp prices. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the futures market [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Short on rebounds [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish rebound [6] 2. Report's Core Views - The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine is easing, and the oil market is in an oversupply pattern, leading to a bearish outlook on oil prices. Cost - related factors are dragging down the prices of LPG, L, PP, etc. Some products have short - term supply - demand imbalances and inventory issues [1][9]. - For some chemical products like PTA, EG, and methanol, supply - demand changes, cost support, and inventory trends are the main factors affecting their prices. Urea has a complex supply - demand situation with both domestic and international factors at play [3]. - Natural gas prices are under pressure due to sufficient supply and weakened demand support. Asphalt prices are affected by cost and seasonal demand factors. Glass and soda ash markets are facing supply - demand imbalances with high inventories [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly, with WTI down 2.94%, Brent down 2.71%, and SC down 1.14% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical support for oil prices is decreasing as the Russia - Ukraine situation eases. In the off - season, there is an oversupply of crude oil, and global and US inventories are increasing [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Russia's oil production in November increased slightly. The IEA predicts an increase in global crude oil demand in 2025 and 2026. US crude oil and product inventories showed mixed changes in the week ending December 5 [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and oil prices are in a low - price range. Technically, the trend is weak. It is recommended to partially close short positions, with SC focusing on the range of 415 - 430 [11]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 16, the PG main contract closed at 4210 yuan/ton, up 1.40% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed slight changes [12][13]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil, which is in a downward trend. Supply has increased, and downstream chemical demand has some resilience, but MTBE blending demand has decreased. Inventory has increased [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and LPG prices still have room to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions, with PG focusing on the range of 4150 - 4250 [15]. 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: The L05 closing price decreased slightly, and the main contract's basis and some spreading prices changed [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Falling oil prices, weakening basis, and high production rates limit the rebound space. Supply is sufficient, the peak season for shed films is ending, and enterprise inventory is increasing slightly [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, it is in a high - production cycle. Wait for a rebound to go short. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread, with L focusing on the range of 6450 - 6600 [19]. 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 closing price increased, and the main contract's basis and some spreading prices changed significantly [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Weak demand support, weakening basis, and high inventory limit the rebound space. In December, demand enters the off - season, and the industry chain still faces high inventory - reduction pressure [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for a rebound to go short. Consider going long on PP processing fees or short on MTO05, with PP focusing on the range of 6200 - 6300 [23]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 closing price increased, and the main contract's basis and some spreading prices changed [25]. - **Basic Logic**: North American plant shutdowns led to a rebound in the market, but the basis weakened. Supply - demand surplus persists until there are concentrated mid - and upstream maintenance. Some northwest self - supplied calcium carbide plants are losing cash flow [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Treat it as a short - term rebound. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for continuous inventory reduction before going long, with V focusing on the range of 4300 - 4450 [27]. 3.6 PTA - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of PTA changed slightly, and basis and spreading prices also had some fluctuations [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side processing fees are low, and many domestic and overseas plants are under maintenance. Downstream demand is currently good but expected to weaken. Cost support is weakening, and there is an expected inventory build - up in January [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the low valuation and processing fees, consider going long on the 05 contract on dips, with TA05 focusing on the range of 4610 - 4670 [30]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of EG changed, and basis and spreading prices also had fluctuations [31]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas plant loads have decreased. Downstream demand is currently good but expected to weaken. There is an expected inventory build - up in December, and it lacks upward drivers [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds, with EG05 focusing on the range of 3730 - 3800 [33]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Performance**: No specific market performance data is emphasized, but it is mentioned that the Taicang spot price is weakening [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The port inventory is decreasing, but the supply - side pressure still exists. Domestic plants are increasing production, while overseas plants are reducing production. Demand is slightly weakening, and cost support is weakening [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The methanol 05 contract is expected to be weak, with the downward space being limited [38]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of urea changed, and basis and spreading prices also had fluctuations [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong is strengthening. Supply pressure is expected to ease in mid - to - late December. Demand is currently good but not sustainable. Inventory is decreasing but still at a high level [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously avoid shorting. Consider going long on the 05 contract, with UR01 focusing on the range of 1615 - 1640 [42]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On December 15, the NG main contract closed at 4.012 US dollars per million British thermal units, down 2.46% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions changed [43][44]. - **Basic Logic**: Although it is the consumption peak season, the relatively mild weather in the US has weakened demand support. Gas prices have reached a high level in recent years, and supply is relatively sufficient [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of 3.860 - 4.239 US dollars per million British thermal units. The demand has some support, but gas prices are under pressure [45]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 16, the BU main contract closed at 2891 yuan/ton, down 2.07% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions changed slightly [46][47]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost - side factors are negative, and it is the consumption off - season. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is relatively high [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions due to the increasing uncertainty in South American geopolitics. Pay attention to the range of 2800 - 2900 yuan/ton [49]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 closing price decreased slightly, and basis and spreading prices changed [51]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply reduction is insufficient under weak demand. Production capacity remains stable, and demand is weak. Inventory is high although it has decreased for three consecutive weeks [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for a rebound to go short, with FG focusing on the range of 1110 - 1150 [53]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 closing price increased, and basis and spreading prices changed [55]. - **Basic Logic**: The market rebounded with reduced positions. Supply is expected to be loose with a planned new plant coming into operation. Demand support is insufficient [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for a rebound to go short, with SA focusing on the range of 1150 - 1200 [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Market is in a short - term stalemate between bulls and bears. The price of rubber is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range of 15000 - 15500 [1]. Pure Benzene - Short - term supply and demand of pure benzene is weak, and the cost - end crude oil support is weak. But with the confirmation of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan, the downside space of pure benzene is limited. BZ2603 may fluctuate within the range of 5300 - 5600 [3]. Styrene - The supply - demand side of styrene remains tight. The port inventory continues to decline. However, the downstream resistance to high prices is strong, and the follow - up of procurement is weak. The mid - term supply - demand expectation is weak, and the cost - end support is limited. EB02 may fluctuate within the range of 6400 - 6700 in the short term [3]. Urea - The futures market fluctuates and closes higher, and the spot market remains weakly stable. The release of India's tender may ease the bearish pressure. Supply is at a high level, and demand is suppressed in the short term. The urea price may fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the 1600 - 1630 range [4]. Crude Oil - International crude oil prices have fallen sharply. The supply - demand relationship is in a loose pattern. Brent oil should pay attention to the support at the annual low of 58.11 US dollars per barrel [5]. Methanol - The futures market fluctuates narrowly. The port is expected to be weak in the near term, while the inland supply and demand are both increasing. The 05 contract can be considered to go long at low prices after the reduction of shipments [7][9]. Polyolefins - The upstream of polyethylene continues to reduce prices for sales, and the demand has weakened after reaching the peak. PP shows an increase in both supply and demand. The overall valuation is low, and the expectation of improvement in the 05 balance is strengthened. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of the industry chain after the macro - economic improvement [14]. LPG - No clear overall view is summarized in the text, but price, inventory, and开工率 data are provided [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash has an excess supply situation, and the price is in a downward trend. After a technical rebound, short - selling opportunities can be considered. Glass has short - term rigid demand support, but the medium - and long - term market is under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda demand is weakly supported, and the price is expected to run weakly. PVC supply pressure remains, demand is sluggish, but export orders are good. The price is not optimistic, and short - selling can be considered after a rebound [20]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX short - term upward drive is insufficient, and it may fluctuate within the range of 6600 - 7000. PTA short - term absolute price drive is limited, and it may fluctuate within the range of 4500 - 4800. Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Short - fiber absolute price drive is limited, following raw material fluctuations. Polyester bottle - chip processing fees are strong in the short term [21]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of SCRWF in Shanghai decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14900 yuan/ton, and the full - cream basis decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 270 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 spreads remained unchanged [1]. - **Production and Consumption Data**: In October, Thailand's production decreased by 1.40 to 478.60, Indonesia's production decreased by 2.90 to 186.10, India's production increased by 4.40 to 89.40, and China's production decreased by 7.70 to 113.50 [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 10129 to 498888, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in SHFE increased by 2218 to 59573 [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 1.64 to 58.92 US dollars per barrel, and CFR China pure benzene decreased by 1 to 536 US dollars per ton [3]. - **Benzene and Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene in East China spot price remained unchanged at 6620 yuan/ton, and EB03 - BZ03 increased by 22 to 1121 [3]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: Caprolactam cash flow (single product) increased by 15 to - 335 [3]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports remained unchanged at 26000 tons, and styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 12100 tons to 134700 tons [3]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The 01 contract of urea decreased by 8 to 1630 yuan/10 tons, and the 01 - 05 contract spread increased by 9 to - 43 [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.11 to 19.90 million tons, and factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 5.63 to 123.42 million tons [4]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 1.64 to 58.92 US dollars per barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread decreased by 0.09 to 3.65 [5]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB decreased by 5.14 to 168.09 US cents per gallon [5]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: US gasoline crack spread decreased by 0.61 to 15.33 US dollars per barrel [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 increased by 5 to 2079 yuan/ton, and the太仓 - 内蒙北线 regional spread increased by 13 to 145 [7]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.85 to 35.283 million tons, and port inventory decreased by 11.51 to 123.4 million tons [8]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.45 to 76.64%, and downstream MTO05 operating rate decreased by 13 to - 131 [9]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 decreased by 6 to 6516 yuan/ton, and the L15 spread increased by 8 to - 27 [14]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 1.80 to 47.1 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.81 to 53.7 million tons [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 0.06 to 84.1%, and PP device operating rate increased by 0.71 to 78.3% [14]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The main contract PG2601 increased by 39 to 4220 yuan/ton, and the PG01 - 02 spread increased by 24 to 154 [17]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 0.3 to 23.7%, and port inventory increased by 8.9 to 283 million tons [17]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream main - refinery operating rate increased by 0.5 to 75.11%, and downstream PDH operating rate increased by 2.7 to 72.9% [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass 2601 decreased by 4 to 1020 yuan/ton, and soda ash 2601 increased by 10 to 1133 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash production increased by 3.2 to 73.54 million tons, and glass float - line daily melting volume remained unchanged at 155000 tons [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 31.3 to 2218.8 yuan/ton, and V2605 increased by 86 to 4669 yuan/ton [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry operating rate remained unchanged at 688, and PVC overall operating rate decreased by 0.6 to 78.4% [20]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 1.64 to 58.92 US dollars per barrel, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 10 to 536 US dollars per ton [21]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price decreased by 32 to 6300 yuan/ton, and polyester chip price decreased by 20 to 5475 yuan/ton [21]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX decreased by 6 to 827 US dollars per ton, and PX - naphtha spread increased by 6 to 397 [21]. - **PTA and MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East China spot price decreased by 30 to 4590 yuan/ton, and MEG East China spot price decreased by 12 to 3634 yuan/ton [21]. - **Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate decreased by 0.7 to 78.6%, and PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 73.7% [21].

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 俄乌缓和叠加过剩格局未变，油价偏空。地缘：俄乌冲突继续缓和，南美 地缘不确定性上升，美国扣押委内瑞拉油轮；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩， | | 原油 | 消费淡季叠加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量： | | | | 美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端拖累，液化气走势偏弱。成本端原油，震荡调整，大趋势仍向下； | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左 | | ★ | | 右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利空，港口与厂内库存环比上升。 | | | | 两油石化库存增至同期高位，现货跟涨不足，基差大幅走弱。国内开工季 | | L | 节性回升，LL | 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯 | | | 空头盘整 | 裂解超预期检修难度相对较高，供 ...