Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans and soybean meal, the short - term price of soybean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the crushing margin will recover, which will stimulate ship purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is to sell on rallies [4]. - For palm oil, it may reverse the situation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high - yield does not continue, the inventory - reduction time may come earlier. The strategy is to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, and turn to a long - position thinking if there are signals of production decline [10]. - For sugar, due to the strengthening of import control of syrup and premixed powder, the Zhengzhou sugar price has rebounded, but the external market is still weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [12]. - For cotton, the downstream demand is weak, and the domestic production is high this year, with great selling - hedging pressure. The short - term cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate [15]. - For eggs, short - term prices are expected to be relatively strong, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait for short - selling opportunities [20]. - For pigs, in the long - term, the strategy is to sell on rallies. Currently, the first - choice strategy is reverse arbitrage, followed by short - selling after the rebound [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose slightly. The domestic soybean meal spot price was stable on Monday, and the transaction and pick - up were good. The domestic port soybean inventory exceeded 10 million tons last week. The expected soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week is 2.1579 million tons [2]. - **Strategy**: The import cost fluctuates mainly. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are large, but there is some support as it enters the de - stocking season. Short - term, the price of soybean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and in the medium term, sell on rallies [4]. Oils - **Market Information**: From November 1 - 10, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month. The production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month. As of November 7, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils decreased by 5.16% week - on - week and increased by 8.52% year - on - year [6]. - **Strategy**: The high production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. Before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, view it as oscillating weakly. Turn to a long - position thinking if there are signals of production decline [10]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. India will allow the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season. The expected opening time of Guangxi sugar mills is November 15, 7 days later than last year. As of November 9, 3 sugar mills in Yunnan have opened, 1 more than last year [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to the strengthening of import control, the Zhengzhou sugar price has rebounded, but the external market is weak. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [12]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate. As of November 7, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.4%, down 0.2 percentage points week - on - week [14]. - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is weak, and the domestic production is high. The short - term cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was stable or decreased yesterday. The supply is stable, and the market demand is average [17]. - **Strategy**: Short - term prices are expected to be relatively strong. In the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait for short - selling opportunities [20]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price showed a mixed trend yesterday. The demand side has limited acceptance of the current pig price, and the support for the pig price has weakened [22]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, sell on rallies. Currently, the first - choice strategy is reverse arbitrage, followed by short - selling after the rebound [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Macro-level factors like the potential end of the US government shutdown, the continuation of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, and a more relaxed global monetary policy are favorable for copper prices, while on the supply-demand side, the recovery of Indonesian mines and weak short-term spot demand with high inventories may put pressure on the spot market in the future. In the short term, due to news stimulation, the market sentiment is strong and copper prices may fluctuate at a high level, but in the medium term, there is a contradiction between macro expectations and spot demand, with high uncertainty [3][4]. Summary According to Related Content Market Performance - Today, the LME copper rose slightly, trading around $10,785, and the Shanghai copper also rose slightly, closing at 86,480. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper were basically stable, and the market sentiment was neutral [4]. - The Shanghai copper closed at 86,480, and the spot price was 88,610, with the spot at a premium of 130 points over the futures. The spot basis premium was 55 points, and the spot trading improved slightly. The LME spot discount narrowed to -$18 this week, and the external spot demand was average [3]. - This week, the RMB exchange rate rose significantly, and the Yangshan copper premium dropped to a recent low of $33.5, indicating poor domestic spot demand. The ratio of LME copper to Shanghai copper dropped to 8, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper dropped to 496 points, with the external price ratio higher than the internal one [3]. Market Analysis - Macroscopically, the global trade pattern is gradually stabilizing, the Fed's interest rate cut cycle continues, and the global monetary policy tends to be loose, which is beneficial to copper prices; on the supply-demand side, Indonesian mines are gradually resuming production, but the spot demand remains weak in the short term, with high inventories, and there may be pressure on the spot side in the future [4]. - Technically, the technical form of Shanghai copper is neutral. In the short term, market sentiment is strong due to news such as the end of the US government shutdown, and copper prices may fluctuate at a high level. In the medium term, there is a contradiction between macro expectations and spot demand, with high uncertainty [4]. Future Concerns - Future attention should be paid to when the US government shutdown will end, whether the Fed's interest rate cut cycle can continue, and when the current weak spot demand at home and abroad will improve [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The current supply and demand of industrial silicon are both decreasing, with slow inventory depletion. The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the start - up changes of large factories in the northwest [6]. - The current supply and demand of polysilicon are both weak, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. However, it is supported by industrial policies and market expectations. It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the futures main contract bottomed out and rebounded, closing at 9220 yuan/ton on November 7 [6]. - **Supply**: The operating rate in Xinjiang remained stable, with a slight increase in output; the operating rate in the northwest (Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu) changed little; most silicon enterprises in Yunnan stopped production in late October, and some stopped in early November; some silicon enterprises in Sichuan may stop production partially. Overall, the output of industrial silicon decreased month - on - month [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of polysilicon enterprises decreased month - on - month; the operating rate of silicone was basically stable; the operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises changed little, with on - demand procurement. In September, the export of industrial silicon was 70200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 8% [6]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in the country was 552000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from last week [6]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the futures main contract fluctuated and declined, closing at 53215 yuan/ton on November 7 [7]. - **Supply**: The output of polysilicon in October was 137400 tons, a slight increase from September. In November, with the successive shutdowns in the southwest production areas, the production schedule of polysilicon declined significantly [7]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand remained weak, and price transmission in the industrial chain was poor. Silicon wafer and battery prices were loose, and downstream crystal - pulling enterprises only maintained rigid - demand procurement. In September, the import volume of polysilicon was 1291.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28%; the export volume was 2149.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28% [7]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [7]. - **Inventory**: There was little change in inventory recently, and there was still a possibility of inventory accumulation as subsequent orders decreased [7]. Price and Spread - **Industrial Silicon Price and Spread**: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 and 421 oxygen - passed were unchanged from last week; the spread between Yunnan's 553 and 421 oxygen - passed industrial silicon and Xinjiang's 553 and 421 oxygen - passed industrial silicon remained stable compared with last week [10][14]. - **Polysilicon Price and Spread**: As of November 7, 2025, the spot prices of N - type dense material, P - type dense material, and P - type cauliflower material were unchanged from last week; the spread between N - type dense material and P - type dense material, and N - type dense material and P - type cauliflower material remained stable compared with last week [17][21]. Cost - **Silicon Coal and Silica Stone**: As of November 7, 2025, the delivered prices of silicon coal in Ningxia and Xinjiang remained stable; the delivered prices of silica stone in Hubei, Xinjiang, and Yunnan remained stable [25]. - **Petroleum Coke and Electricity Price**: As of November 7, 2025, the price of Saudi petroleum coke at Shandong ports remained stable; the electricity prices in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan remained stable [28]. - **Wood Chips and Graphite Electrodes**: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of wood chips and charcoal in Yunnan, and high - power graphite electrodes in Jiangsu remained stable [32]. Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafers**: As of November 7, 2025, the average prices of N - type silicon wafers decreased slightly compared with last week. Affected by weak terminal demand and cautious downstream procurement, silicon wafer prices decreased slightly, but the decline space may be limited due to cost support [34]. - **Batteries**: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of various types of single - crystal TOPCon batteries decreased compared with last week. The battery market continued to be weak, with component manufacturers pressing prices and battery manufacturers lowering quotes [38]. - **Components**: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of various types of TOPCon components remained stable. The market demand was differentiated, with large - size components having firm quotes due to domestic centralized project demand, while conventional - size components had high inventory and weak demand, with prices hovering at low levels [41]. - **Organic Silicon**: As of November 7, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China increased by 500 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the operating rate was basically stable [45]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of November 7, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton compared with last week, the operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable, and they procured industrial silicon on - demand [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current iron ore supply and demand are weak. With the terminal demand in the off - season, steel mills' procurement is cautious. In the short term, it will maintain a volatile operation. The strategy is range - bound trading [5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Logic - **Supply**: From November 3rd to November 9th, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3069 tons, a decrease of 144.5 tons compared to the previous period. Australian shipments were 1810.8 tons, down 84.3 tons, and Brazilian shipments were 737.8 tons, down 126.3 tons. The arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2741.2 tons, a decrease of 477.2 tons. As of November 7th, the daily output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 46.87 tons, a decrease of 0.77 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 59.98%, down 0.98%. The mine concentrate inventory was 79.6 tons, a decrease of 9.95 tons [5] - **Demand**: In the week of November 7th, the daily average pig iron output was 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons. After the emergency response to heavy pollution weather was lifted in many places in Hebei, the steel mills' willingness to actively overhaul was weak, and the short - term decline in pig iron output was limited [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of imported ore continued to increase, the number of ships at the port decreased by 9 to 109. The pressure at the port was transferred to the port, and the steel mills' inventory rebounded from a low level, with the overall inventory increasing slightly [5] - **Basis**: The basis of the 01 and 05 contracts fluctuated slightly [5] - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills declined, and the price of imported ore oscillated in the range of 100 - 105 US dollars per ton [5] Price - The spot price oscillated and declined [7] Mineral Powder Spread - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder rebounded slightly, and the spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder oscillated at a low level [13][17] Relative Valuation - The ratio of steel to ore oscillated at a low level, and the ratio of ore to coke declined slightly [28] Supply - Global shipments decreased slightly, and the shipments of non - mainstream mines fluctuated slightly. Australian ore shipped to China and Brazilian ore shipments both decreased slightly. Shipments from FMG decreased, while those from BHP increased slightly. Shipmentsments from The Shipments from RT and VALE increased slightly. The shipping freight index increased slightly, the arrival volume decreased slightly, and the output of domestic iron concentrate decreased slightly [34][38][43][47][52][56][59] Demand - The profit of steel mill blast furnaces increased slightly, the profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline, and the pig iron output continued to decrease [65][71] Inventory - The port throughput changed little, and the port inventory continued to rise. The inventory of Australian ore increased slightly, and the inventory of Brazilian ore was at a high level. The inventory of coarse powder oscillated at a high level, and the inventory of lump ore increased slightly. The steel mills' consumption continued to decline, and the inventory of imported ore oscillated at a low level [78][82][90][98]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the steel industry, the steel market shows that mills continue to cut production, hot metal declines, apparent demand drops, and inventory reduction slows. The cost support of iron elements is weak, while that of carbon elements is strong. The steel price is unlikely to fall significantly, and the long - coking coal and short - hot rolled coil arbitrage can be held. The unilateral prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil may test previous lows [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the iron ore futures are in a weak downward trend. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. Due to the weak steel price, the profitability of mills is declining, which will force the iron ore market to be weak. It is recommended to short iron ore futures on rallies and conduct long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage [4][6]. - For the coke industry, the coke futures fluctuated downward last week. The supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 on dips and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. - For the coking coal industry, the coking coal futures also showed a downward trend last week. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3190 yuan/ton, 3200 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, +10, and - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Rebar contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 are 3095 yuan/ton, 3132 yuan/ton, and 3034 yuan/ton respectively, all showing declines [2]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3260 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, all down 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 are 3254 yuan/ton, 3276 yuan/ton, and 3245 yuan/ton respectively, all down 11 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East, North, and South China are all down [2]. Supply - The daily average hot metal output is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.9%); the output of five major steel products is 856.7 tons, down 18.5 tons (-2.1%); the rebar output is 208.5 tons, down 4.1 tons (-1.9%); the hot - rolled coil output is 318.2 tons, down 5.4 tons (-1.7%) [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1503.6 tons, down 10.2 tons (-0.7%); the rebar inventory is 592.5 tons, down 10 tons (-1.7%); the hot - rolled coil inventory is 410.5 tons, up 3.9 tons (0.9%) [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume is 8.7 tons, down 2.3 tons (-21%); the apparent demand of five major steel products is 866.9 tons, down 49.5 tons (-5.4%); the apparent demand of rebar is 218.5 tons, down 13.7 tons (-5.9%); the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil is 314.3 tons, down 17.6 tons (-5.3%) [2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders all show declines, and the basis of the 01 contract has different changes. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also have corresponding changes [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port and price indexes such as the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe all decline [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports is 3218.4 tons, up 1189.3 tons (58.6%); the global weekly shipping volume is 3213.8 tons, down 174.6 tons (-5.2%); the national monthly import volume is 11632.6 tons, up 1111.6 tons (10.6%) [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 mills is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.9%); the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports is 320.9 tons, down 15.5 tons (-4.6%); the national monthly pig iron output is 6604.6 tons, down 374.7 tons (-5.4%); the national monthly crude steel output is 7349.0 tons, down 387.8 tons (-5.0%) [4]. Inventory Changes - The port inventory at 45 ports is 14898.83 tons, up 184.8 tons (1.3%); the imported iron ore inventory of 247 mills is 6600.6 tons, up 160.1 tons (1.8%); the inventory available days of 64 mills is 21 days, unchanged [4]. Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) are unchanged. The coke 01 and 05 contracts decline, and the coking profit is down [7]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.6 tons, down 1.0 ton (-1.5%); the daily average output of 247 mills is 46.1 tons, down 0.1 ton (-0.34%) [7]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 mills is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.94%) [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory is 887.1 tons, down 13 tons (-1.4%); the coke inventories of coking plants, mills, and ports all decline [7]. Supply - demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap is -3.7 tons, down 0.1 ton (-2.2%) [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) are unchanged, while the prices of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) and coking coal 01 and 05 contracts decline. The sample coal mine profit is up [7]. Supply - The raw coal output is 848.4 tons, down 3.4 tons (-0.4%); the clean coal output is 433.0 tons, down 2.0 tons (-0.5%) [7]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coking production, with the daily average output of all - sample coking plants and 247 mills showing declines [7]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines is 80.4 tons, down 0.8 tons (-0.9%); the coking coal inventories of coking plants and ports increase, while those of mills decrease [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bullish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [4] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For most energy and chemical products, the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, oil price trends, and inventory levels. Some products face supply - side pressure and bearish trends, while others show short - term improvements but still have uncertainties [2][4][7] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Core view: Cautiously bearish. The core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the upward pressure on oil prices is significant. OPEC+ is still in the production - expansion cycle, and the supply - surplus pressure is rising [2] - Basic logic: OPEC+ plans to expand production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in early next year. The consumption off - season has begun, and the supply - surplus pressure is increasing. The US crude oil inventory increased by 5.2 million barrels to 421.2 million barrels in the week ending October 31 [10] - Strategy: Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. Pay attention to the range of [455 - 465] for SC [11] LPG - Core view: Cautiously bearish. It follows the weakening of the cost - end oil price [2] - Basic logic: The cost - end is bearish due to factors such as the US sanctions on Russia and Saudi Arabia's reduction of the CP contract price. The supply has decreased slightly, and the downstream chemical operating rate has increased. The port and factory inventories have both declined [16] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4250 - 4350] for PG [17] L - Core view: Bearish continuation. The enterprise inventory pressure increases [2] - Basic logic: The spot and futures are still bottom - seeking. The enterprise inventory has reached a high level in the same period, and the cost support has weakened. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the downstream demand for replenishment is insufficient [21] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [6700 - 6850] for L [21] PP - Core view: Bearish continuation. The inventory pressure in the industrial chain is high [2] - Basic logic: The fundamentals remain weak, following the weakening of oil prices and propylene. The upstream and mid - stream inventories are at a high level in the same period, and the de - stocking pressure is high [25] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [6400 - 6550] for PP [25] PVC - Core view: Bearish continuation. The trading volume reaches a new high [2] - Basic logic: The trading volume reaches a new high, and attention should be paid to capital dynamics. The basis is strengthening, and the warehouse receipts are slowly decreasing from a high level. The upstream and mid - stream inventories are at a high level in the same period, but the low valuation provides support [29] - Strategy: The industry should conduct hedging at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. Pay attention to the range of [4550 - 4700] for PVC [29] PX - Core view: Cautiously bullish. The short - term supply - demand situation is improved, but the oil price is under pressure [31] - Basic logic: The supply - side domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. The demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high this year. The crude oil supply - demand pattern remains loose [30] - Strategy: Close short positions at low valuations. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices. Pay attention to the range of [6705 - 6810] for PX [31] PTA - Core view: Cautiously bullish. The supply - demand situation is slightly improved, but the oil price is under pressure [32] - Basic logic: The processing fee is low. The later device maintenance efforts are expected to increase, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. The downstream demand has improved, but the order stability needs to be observed. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in November - December [33] - Strategy: Focus on expanding the processing fee spread (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices. Pay attention to the range of [4620 - 4695] for TA [34] MEG - Core view: Cautiously bearish. The valuation is low, but the oil price is under pressure [35] - Basic logic: The domestic device maintenance has increased, and the operating load has declined. New device production and the recovery of maintenance devices will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand has improved but is expected to weaken. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in November [36] - Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3880 - 3960] for EG [37] Methanol - Core view: Cautiously bearish. The fundamentals remain weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory de - stocking inflection point [38] - Basic logic: High inventory suppresses the rebound of the spot price. The supply - side domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. The demand performance is average, and the cost support is weak and stable [40] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully. Pay attention to the MA1 - 5 reverse spread [4] Urea - Core view: Cautiously bullish. Exports are short - term positive, but the fundamentals remain weak [43] - Basic logic: The spot price of small - particle urea is rising, and the negative basis is slightly weakening. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly improved. The factory inventory is accumulating and at a high level in the same period. Exports have maintained a high growth rate since July [44] - Strategy: Be vigilant against the risk of the futures price falling after rising. Consider going long lightly at low prices for far - month contracts. Pay attention to the range of [1640 - 1680] for UR [45] Natural Gas - Core view: Cautiously bullish. The gas price is likely to rise due to the consumption peak season [46] - Basic logic: The global temperature is dropping, and the demand for natural gas for combustion and heating is increasing. The supply is sufficient, but the demand support is rising [48] - Strategy: Pay attention to the range of [4.400 - 4.600] for NG [49] Asphalt - Core view: Cautiously bearish. The supply and demand are both weak, and the asphalt price is under downward pressure [50] - Basic logic: The cost - end oil price has回调ed, and the comprehensive profit of asphalt has decreased. The supply is expected to decline in November, and the demand has also decreased. The social inventory has increased [53] - Strategy: Short - allocate lightly. Pay attention to the range of [2950 - 3050] for BU [54] Glass - Core view: Bearish consolidation. The capital game is intense, and caution is required [55] - Basic logic: The daily melting volume has decreased, and the coal - based process still has profits. The factory inventory is slowly decreasing but remains high. The domestic demand is weak, and the demand support is insufficient [56] - Strategy: In the short term, cold - repair provides support. In the long term, the real - estate demand is weak, and the loose pattern is difficult to change. Short on rebounds [56] Soda Ash - Core view: Bearish rebound. Device maintenance has increased, and the price has stopped falling in the short term [7] - Basic logic: The device maintenance has increased, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly. The demand is mostly rigid, and the supply will remain loose in the long term due to the high - production cycle [7] - Strategy: The industry should conduct sell - hedging at high prices [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is expected to be under pressure and move weakly in a fluctuating manner. The price may test the previous low support. For nickel trading, the strategy is to sell on rebounds in the unilateral market and sell out - of - the - money call options at the resistance level in the options market. For stainless steel, it is also expected to move weakly in a fluctuating manner, with the strategy of selling on rebounds in the unilateral market and taking a wait - and - see approach in the arbitrage market [5][6][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level. LME inventory is 250,000 tons, with a small increase of 1,002 tons this week. SHFE inventory is 37,000 tons, and domestic delivery volume has increased. SMM's six - region social inventory is 49,000 tons, with a small increase of 1,029 tons month - on - month [12][13]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: Stainless steel social inventory continues to decline. The destocking speed has slowed down, and the price is under pressure [9][18]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Refined Nickel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: SMM statistics show that the cumulative refined nickel output from January to October increased by 23% year - on - year to 335,500 tons. It is expected that the total domestic refined nickel output in November will remain at a high level of 35,200 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons month - on - month. From January to September 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 51,100 tons, compared with a net export of 19,700 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel from January to September 2025 was 351,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 58.3% [25]. - **Demand**: The consumption of electroplating and alloy with refined nickel is stable. The cumulative pure nickel consumption from January to October increased by 2% year - on - year to 243,000 tons. The nickel consumption for electroplating increased month - on - month in line with the peak - season characteristics, but the off - season will also be obvious. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel in October fell below the 50 boom - bust line, with all sub - items below 50 [26][29]. 2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials and Supply - Demand - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: Due to the rainy season and typhoons in the Philippines, nickel mines have a strong willingness to hold prices. However, the overall high - nickel iron market is weak, and the ability to absorb nickel ore is limited, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The domestic trade premium in Indonesia remained flat, and the first - round domestic trade benchmark price in November decreased slightly month - on - month, with the full price remaining stable [31]. - **NPI**: The supply of NPI has increased, and the price is under pressure. The profit margin of Chinese NPI has shown certain fluctuations [32][33]. - **Chromium Series**: Chromium ore prices have been continuously weakening. The long - term contract purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in November 2025 was 8,495 yuan/50 base tons (cash - inclusive delivered - to - factory price), a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan [39][40]. - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: There is a cost inversion in cold - rolled stainless steel. The estimated cold - rolled cash cost is about 13,250 yuan/ton, and the integrated cost reaches 12,750 yuan/ton [42]. - **Supply**: It is estimated that the output of Chinese and Indian stainless - steel crude steel from January to September was 33.45 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the output of both China and India increased month - on - month, but there may be production cuts due to cost inversion. From January to September 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.138 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%. The total exports were 3.783 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The net export volume was 2.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [52]. - **Demand**: The output of shipbuilding plates from January to September increased by 28% year - on - year, while the growth rates of other terminal fields are not optimistic [54]. 2.3 New Energy - Related Markets - **New Energy Vehicles** - **Domestic Market**: In September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6%, and the penetration rate reached 49.7%. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. From October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of the new energy passenger - vehicle market were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The production of power cells followed the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 44.5% to 985.5 GWh from January to October, and a month - on - month increase of 0.2% in November [60]. - **Global Market**: From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of global new energy vehicles increased by 23.5% year - on - year to 14.479 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe increased by 28.5% year - on - year to 2.746 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in the United States increased by 11.4% year - on - year to 1.232 million. China's cumulative exports of new energy vehicles from January to September 2025 were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [65]. - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: The cumulative output of nickel sulfate in China from January to October decreased by 9.9% year - on - year to 282,000 tons. The cumulative output of ternary precursors from January to October decreased by 15% year - on - year to 595,000 tons. The cumulative output of ternary cathode materials from January to October increased by 15% year - on - year to 654,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but due to the sharp increase in cobalt prices affected by export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the growth of precursor output was less than expected [67]. - **Nickel Sulfate Raw Materials**: The cumulative output of Indonesian MHP from January to October increased by 50% year - on - year to 366,000 tons. The output of Indonesian high - grade nickel matte from January to October decreased by 31% year - on - year to 160,000 tons. The cost of MHP has increased, and the price has remained firm. The good demand for nickel sulfate has boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated the recovery of production [73]. 2.4 Pure Nickel Import and Supply - Demand Balance The large increase in pure nickel imports has led to an obvious domestic surplus [74].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, marking a shift from a decline of 0.3% in the previous month [2][3] - Service prices rose by 0.2%, driven by increased travel demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with hotel accommodation, flight tickets, and tourism prices rising by 8.6%, 4.5%, and 2.5% respectively [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, indicating a steady recovery in domestic consumption, particularly in service consumption [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in October, the first rise of the year, influenced by improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries [4][5] - Year-on-year, PPI decreased by 2.1%, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a trend of price stabilization in key industries [5][6] - Prices in the coal mining and washing industry, photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, and integrated circuit manufacturing have shown upward trends, while international commodity prices have created a mixed impact on domestic prices [4][5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the improvement in price data reflects a comprehensive enhancement in the macroeconomic environment and industry sentiment, with a balanced supply-demand relationship [6][7] - The overall price level is expected to rise moderately in the next 3 to 6 months, supported by continued macroeconomic policies and a recovery in market confidence [7] - The construction of a modern industrial system and the expansion of market demand are anticipated to drive price increases in related industries, despite ongoing pressures from the real estate market on certain commodity prices [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: Different futures varieties have distinct market outlooks. Some lack upward drivers, some are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, and some are affected by international trade policies and weather conditions [1]. - **Specific to each variety**: - **Bean meal**: Lacks continuous upward drivers. The Brazilian rainfall forecast is good, and the US - China trade negotiation results regarding soybean import tariffs are still unresolved. Spot oil mills have a reduced sales pressure and a price - holding mentality. Caution is needed when chasing long positions [1][3]. - **Rapeseed meal**: Follow the trend of bean meal. High port inventory and the off - season of downstream consumption put pressure on the market, but the unresolved Sino - Canadian trade issue supports the far - month contracts. Recent statements from Canada have cooled the market's expectation of tariff improvement. The rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited [1][5]. - **Palm oil**: Enters a phase of weakening supply - demand. Malaysian palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in October and November. Import profit inversion may lead to insufficient imports in December and January, and the price is in low - level consolidation [1][7]. - **Soybean oil**: Short - term supply is sufficient, with domestic inventory higher than the five - year average. The US - China tariff issue has not fully resolved the cost problem of US soybean imports. There is a lack of strong upward drivers, and the recent increase is regarded as a short - term rebound [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The oil mill's operating rate is low, and there is a mentality of hoarding and price - holding in the market. It has entered the consumption peak season, but the spot market has high prices with few transactions. The cooling expectation of Sino - Canadian trade relations has led to a stop - falling rebound, but the short - term weakness has not been completely reversed [1]. - **Cotton**: The supply is pressured by the increase in cotton output from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries. Although Brazil is accelerating exports, India's MSP provides some support for international cotton prices. The domestic new cotton harvest is almost completed, with commercial inventory exceeding the same - period level. Downstream demand is weak, but the sales progress is fast, and short - term low - buying opportunities can be considered [1][11]. - **Red dates**: The market has a large - scale harvest, and the new - season output is becoming more certain. High - inventory old dates and limited downstream acceptance of new products may lead to a weakening and volatile market. Short - selling operations should be carried out carefully according to the purchase price and progress [1][14]. - **Live pigs**: The supply pressure in Q4 remains high. The market should be vigilant about the short - term rebound risk of the 01 contract. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds for near - month contracts. Attention can be paid to the 03 contract in the off - season and the reverse - spread arbitrage opportunities in the far - month contracts [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Bean Meal - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3015 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3097.71 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 114.2989 yuan/ton, down 8.69 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory situation**: As of October 31, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 962.9 million tons, a decrease of 10.20 million tons from the previous week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 710.79 million tons, a decrease of 40.50 million tons (5.39%); the bean meal inventory was 115.3 million tons, an increase of 9.84 million tons (9.33%) [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2497 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2626.84 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 353.023 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.39 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory situation**: As of October 31, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.71 million tons, unchanged from the previous week; the unexecuted contract was 0.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons from the previous week [5]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8660 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day. The national average price was 8640 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The import cost was 8857 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory situation**: As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 59.28 million tons, a decrease of 1.43 million tons (2.36%) from the previous week [7]. Cotton - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13580 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14859 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The national cotton commercial inventory was 284.78 million tons, an increase of 52 million tons [8]. - **International situation**: In the US, 73 million tons of new cotton have been inspected, with a progress of about 25%. In India, the daily new - cotton listing volume is about 14,000 tons. In Pakistan, the new - cotton listing volume as of the end of October was 688,000 tons, a 3% year - on - year increase. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 63.67%, slower than last year [9]. - **Domestic situation**: The new - cotton picking progress is 95.3%, the inspection volume exceeds 2.4 million tons, the delivery progress is 90.4%, and the sales progress is 18.3%. The national commercial inventory has increased, and the downstream demand is weak, but the export is expected to stabilize [10]. Red Dates - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2601) closed at 9590 yuan/ton, down 1.18% from the previous day. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9541 tons, an increase of 193 tons from the previous week [12]. - **Production area situation**: In Xinjiang, the red dates have started to be harvested on a large scale. The acquisition prices in different regions are relatively stable. The market's expectation of a new - season production reduction has been adjusted [14]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract (1h2601) closed at 11865 yuan/ton, down 0.63% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 12010 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The national sample enterprises' monthly live - pig inventory was 3844.62 million tons, an increase of 5.61 million tons (0.15%); the monthly live - pig slaughter volume was 11.9653 million heads, an increase of 1.2677 million heads (11.85%) [15]. - **Supply and demand situation**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in November has decreased, but the overall slaughter pressure may still be high. In the medium term, the live - pig slaughter volume in Q1 2026 is expected to increase linearly. In the long term, the capacity reduction of breeding sows is not obvious. The downstream demand is gradually stabilizing [16][17].

这不是危言耸听，而是基于全球货币政策、供需关系、经济环境等多重因素的理性判断。下面用大白话拆解关键逻辑，帮普通人看清楼市趋势，做出不后悔 的选择。 一、全球 "放水" 降息，资产价格上涨是大趋势 2025 年下半年，楼市似乎迎来了微妙的变化：广州珠江新城的售楼处人气回暖，改善型客户悄悄增多；房贷利率持续走低，购房负担能力达到近两年半最 佳水平。结合全球经济趋势和国内市场信号，越来越多人开始纠结：现在该不该买房？其实答案可能很明确 —— 对有真实需求的人来说，当下或许是值得 把握的窗口期，5 年后再观望，大概率会面临 "更买不起" 的局面。 2025 年 9 月、10 月，美联储已经连续两个月降息 25 个基点，12 月还会继续降息，2026 年大概率保持降息节奏。更关键的是，美联储 12 月 1 日将彻底停止 缩表，这意味着 "放水" 模式重启，全球市场上的钱会越来越多。 为什么美联储非要降息？一方面是美国自身债务压力太大，再不降息，连美债利息都快还不起了；另一方面，新的美联储主席人选是特朗普亲信，而降息正 是特朗普一直呼吁的政策。桥水基金创始人达利欧早就预警：这种 "停止缩表 降息 高财政赤字" 的组合，很 ...