Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 05 contract showed an upward trend this week, but it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. The supply is expected to decrease, demand may recover slightly, and cost support will rise [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 05 contract also rose this week, and it is also predicted to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. Supply production is expected to continue to decrease, demand will show some recovery but may be weak later, and cost support will remain stable [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - Price: The 05 contract opened at 8,605 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 8,820 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 2.50% [4]. - Supply: This week's supply was 83,000 tons, a 2.35% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 44,140 tons, a 0.23% increase. The expected monthly operating rate is 61%, a 3.59 - percentage - point decrease from last month [4]. - Demand: This week's demand was 70,000 tons, a 4.10% decrease. Demand remains sluggish, with different situations in polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy sectors [5]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang was 9,794.9 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. Cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 556,000 tons, a 0.18% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 213,100 tons, a 2.70% increase; major port inventory was 137,000 tons, remaining unchanged [5]. Polysilicon - Price: The 05 contract opened at 50,200 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 50,720 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.04% [8]. - Supply: Last week's production was 20,500 tons, a 4.65% decrease. The predicted January production schedule is 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from last month [8]. - Demand: Different trends are seen in silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. Overall, demand shows some recovery but may be weak later [8][9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 15,400 yuan/ton [8]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 330,000 tons, a 2.80% increase, at a historically high level [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: Analyzes the trends of the SI main contract basis and the price difference between different grades of silicon [15][16]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: Presents the inventory trends of industrial silicon in different regions and ports [18][19][20]. - Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends: Shows the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon sample enterprises [22][23][24]. - Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends: Analyzes the cost trends of industrial silicon in different regions [29][30][31]. - Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance: Provides both weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables for industrial silicon [33][34][37]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon: Covers various aspects such as price, production, import - export, and inventory trends [39][40][42]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy: Analyzes price, supply, inventory, and production trends, as well as the demand from the automotive and wheel hub sectors [47][48][52]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon: Includes cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [55][56][59]. 3. Technical Analysis - SI Main Contract: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [79]. - PS Main Contract: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [81].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - As of the close on January 30, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Platinum and palladium dropped nearly 12%, lithium carbonate hit the daily limit down with a 10.99% decline, and tin futures fell over 8%. PVC rose over 3% and logs rose over 2%. In the bond market, the 2 - year Treasury futures (TS) main contract remained flat, the 5 - year (TF) rose 0.01%, the 10 - year (T) rose 0.06%, and the 30 - year (TL) fell 0.23%. In terms of funds, PVC2605, ten - year bond 2603, and pulp 2605 had capital inflows, while Shanghai gold 2604, Shanghai silver 2604, and CSI 2603 had capital outflows [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on January 30, domestic futures main contracts mostly declined. Platinum, palladium, lithium carbonate, tin, silver, gold, and other metals fell, while PVC and logs rose. In the stock index futures, IF, IH, IC, and IM all declined, and in the bond futures, there were different trends. As of 15:20 on January 30, PVC2605, ten - year bond 2603, and pulp 2605 had capital inflows, while Shanghai gold 2604, Shanghai silver 2604, and CSI 2603 had capital outflows [4][5] Market Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened high but closed lower. Supply was affected by a strike at a Chilean copper mine, and the TC/RC fees were weak and trending down. SMM expected a 1.23% month - on - month decrease in domestic electrolytic copper production in January. Demand showed that copper apparent consumption increased in December 2025, but near the Spring Festival and with high copper prices, SMEs' procurement willingness was low. The real estate policy change was positive, and the possible change of the Fed chairman and dollar depreciation affected the market. After a previous rise, profit - taking led to a downward turn [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and hit the daily limit down. The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate declined. Supply was affected by a planned restart of some production lines and the suspension of a lithium mine. The export tax - rebate policy for batteries was adjusted. Inventory was being depleted, and downstream production schedules in the first quarter were expected to be good. However, terminal new - energy vehicle sales declined in January, and after a meeting, the market was affected by negative news [9] Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. Due to winter storms, US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, and production losses reached up to 2 million barrels per day. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast, and cold weather increased diesel demand. However, the global crude oil floating storage was high, and the supply was still in surplus. Geopolitical risks in Iran continued to rise, and the situation in Kazakhstan's oil fields was improving. Crude oil prices were oscillating strongly [10][11] Asphalt - The asphalt开工率 decreased to 25.5% this week, and the February production was expected to decline. Downstream开工率 mostly fell, and the national shipments decreased. The refinery inventory rate remained at a low level. The supply of Venezuelan heavy crude to domestic refineries was restricted, but the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining it increased. In the short term, asphalt was expected to oscillate strongly, and the arbitrage suggestion was reverse arbitrage [12][13] PP - The PP downstream开工率 decreased to 52.08% this week. The enterprise开工率 fell to 78.5%, and the proportion of standard - grade drawing production increased. Petrochemical inventories were at a low level. With rising crude oil prices, PP was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the improvement in the supply - demand pattern was limited, and the sustainability of the rebound was to be treated with caution. The L - PP spread was expected to decline [14] Plastic - The plastic开工率 rose to 90% on January 30. The PE downstream开工率 decreased to 37.76%, and orders and raw - material inventories in the agricultural film and packaging film sectors decreased. Petrochemical inventories were at a low level. With rising crude oil prices, plastic was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the supply - demand improvement was limited, and the L - PP spread was expected to decline [15][16] PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest was stable. The PVC开工率 increased slightly to 78.93%, and the downstream开工率 decreased slightly. PVC exports increased due to the cancellation of export tax - rebates, but the transaction resistance increased. Social inventories continued to rise, and the real estate market was still in adjustment. The PVC market was volatile, and caution was advised [17] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened and closed higher. As the Spring Festival approached, domestic mines started holidays, and the mine inventory started to accumulate. Downstream iron - water production decreased slightly, and the first round of coke price increase was implemented. The market sentiment was volatile, and the coking coal price was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [19] Urea - Urea opened high and closed lower, falling over 1%. The spot price was stable due to good pre - sales. In February, there would be复产 of gas - head devices, and the daily output was close to 210,000 tons. Agricultural dealers' purchases increased, but downstream factory开工率 decreased. Inventory decreased slightly. In the short term, the urea futures market was expected to be resistant to decline and mainly trade in a high - level range [20]

Group 1: Report Summary - The main contract LC2605.GFE closed at 164,820 yuan/ton, down 1,460 yuan/ton from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The spot price of lithium carbonate was 167,880 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The current basis was 1,380 points, a positive basis (spot premium), weakening 240 points from the previous day, and the basis has weakened overall in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate was 30,211 lots, an increase of 245 lots (+0.82%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have increased overall in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The overall industry inventory remained at a relatively low level [4]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The main contract closing price of futures was 164,820 yuan/ton, down 1,460 yuan/ton from the previous day and 3,960 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - The main contract settlement price was 166,500 yuan/ton, down 3,840 yuan/ton from the previous day and 2,660 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - The prices of lithium spodumene concentrates from different regions (Australia, Brazil, Zimbabwe, etc.) showed various changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [6]. - The price of domestic 99.5% electric-grade lithium carbonate was 167,880 yuan/ton, down 4,080 yuan/ton from the previous day but up 3,320 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - The prices of domestic lithium hydroxide products also had different changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [6]. - The prices of downstream products such as ternary precursors, electrolytes, and lithium hexafluorophosphate also showed various trends [6]. Group 3: Related Charts - Multiple charts showed the price changes of ore, lithium, cathode materials, ternary materials, and other related products, as well as the changes in trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures [8][10][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Supply is shrinking as northern Thailand and northern - central Vietnam transition to reduced production and tapping cessation, with overseas raw material prices likely to rise and cost support strengthening. - Demand remains weak. Some semi - steel tire enterprises with a high proportion of European exports are operating at a relatively high level, but domestic sales are slow. - Inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton in the short term [1]. Polyolefins - Affected by capital rotation and geopolitical tensions, prices are relatively strong. - From a static perspective, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. Upstream inventory is low and there is a strong willingness to hold prices, but there are issues such as proxy reselling at a loss. - Dynamically, PP's supply pressure is relieved due to more overhauls, while PE's standard product pressure increases and downstream demand enters the off - season [2]. LPG No clear view on price trends is provided in the report. Only price, inventory, and upstream - downstream开工率 data are presented [3]. Urea - Supply is sufficient as the daily output has reached a high level after the resumption of previous maintenance devices. - Demand is weak. Industrial procurement is sporadic, and agricultural demand has limited pulling effect. - The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1,760 - 1,800 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: The futures market is expected to be weak and volatile due to supply - demand imbalance, high inventory, and weak demand. - **PVC**: The supply - demand situation has not improved, and the price is expected to oscillate and correct, with the main contract focusing on the range of 4,820 - 5,000 yuan/ton [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals are generally weak, and the futures price is expected to be in a weak - oscillation trend. - **Glass**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures price is expected to be in a weak - oscillation trend. Attention should be paid to changes in production lines and inventory [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the port inventory is high. The price is expected to face pressure at high levels. - **Styrene**: The short - term price is relatively strong, but the supply - demand expectation is weakening, and the price is expected to face pressure at high levels [8]. Crude Oil The recent oil price trend is dominated by news such as the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US cold snap. Short - term geopolitical premiums and supply losses support the oil price increase. Attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [10]. Methanol The methanol market has a weak supply - demand situation. The inventory in inland factories is being depleted, but high production suppresses the rebound space. Port inventory is slightly accumulating, and the demand for MTO is weak. The price rebound is limited [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival and is still bullish in the medium term. - **PTA**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate within the range of 5,100 - 5,400 yuan/ton and is bullish in the medium term. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pattern is weak in the short term and strong in the long term. - **Short - fiber**: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows raw material fluctuations. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price and processing fee follow the cost side [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of most varieties decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26, except for the prices of cup rubber and glue, which increased slightly. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of most contracts decreased, with the exception of the 1 - 5 spread, which increased [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November 2025, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India showed different trends. The production of China increased. The tire production, export volume, and natural rubber import volume in December 2025 all increased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, while the general - trade inbound rate increased [1]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of most contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads of some contracts also changed. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The PE device开工率 increased, while the PE downstream加权开工率 decreased. The PP device开工率 increased slightly, while the PP powder开工率 decreased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP decreased [2]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of most LPG contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio increased, while the port inventory and storage - capacity ratio decreased. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The upstream - main refinery开工率 increased, the sample - enterprise weekly sales - production ratio decreased, and the downstream - PDH开工率 decreased significantly [3]. Urea - **Futures Price and Spread**: The prices of most contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials remained stable, with only slight changes in a few. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of most downstream products remained stable. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea increased, the inventory decreased, and the order days of production enterprises decreased [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of most PVC and caustic - soda contracts and spot products decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC changed to different extents. - **Supply**: The caustic - soda industry开工率 increased slightly, while the PVC total开工率 decreased slightly. - **Demand**: The开工率 of caustic - soda downstream industries decreased, while the开工率 of some PVC downstream products increased. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC changed to different extents [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass and soda - ash contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The basis increased. - **Supply**: The soda - ash开工率 and weekly production decreased slightly, while the float - glass daily melting volume increased slightly. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased slightly, while the soda - ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly. - **Real - Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new - construction area, completion area, and sales area improved, while the construction area decreased [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and pure benzene changed on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene contracts and spot decreased slightly. The spreads and cash - flows changed. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash - flow**: The cash - flows of downstream products such as phenol and styrene changed. - **Inventory**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased. - **Industrial Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most industries in the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains changed to different extents [8]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26, while the SC crude - oil price decreased. The spreads also changed. - **Refined - Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of most refined - oil products increased, and the spreads changed. - **Refined - Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of most refined - oil products changed [10]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads and basis changed significantly. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory decreased, while the port and social inventories increased slightly. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The upstream - domestic enterprise开工率 decreased slightly, while the downstream - some device开工率 changed to different extents [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX changed on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash - flow**: The prices and cash - flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of PX contracts and spot changed. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of PTA contracts and spot decreased. - **MEG - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of MEG contracts and spot decreased. - **Inventory and Arrival Expectation**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the arrival expectation decreased. - **Industrial Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most industries in the polyester industrial chain decreased [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current financial market is influenced by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes. Different industries present various trends, with most markets expected to show oscillatory movements, and investors need to closely monitor relevant events and data [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a tug - of - war between geopolitical risk premiums and a supply - surplus fundamental. OPEC+ may maintain stable production in March, but major supply disruptions could prompt an output increase. High inventory pressure in Q1 2026 is a long - term factor suppressing price increases. Brent crude has rebounded to $65/barrel, and WTI to $61/barrel. Attention should be paid to whether the Iran conflict will threaten actual supply [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated violently, with gold and silver breaking through key integer thresholds. It is advisable to wait for volatility to decline before participating. Focus on the Fed meeting, Middle East situation, and the risk of the US government shutdown [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, US copper prices declined at the end of the session. The market may focus on the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff threats. Copper prices are likely to remain in a high - level oscillation and tend to adjust [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. Geopolitical events have increased market volatility, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the high - level oscillation range [5]. - **Other Metals**: Each metal has its own supply - demand characteristics. For example, zinc has strong cost support but weak consumption; lead has a cost - consumption game; nickel has high - level oscillation and market caution; tin has increasing supply pressure; and lithium carbonate has high - level oscillation and high short - term uncertainty [8][9][10]. - **New Energy - Related Materials**: - **Polysilicon**: The spot market is sluggish, with inventory pressure rising. The "rush - to - export" has not effectively boosted procurement. The market is expected to continue oscillating [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It was boosted by production - cut expectations but has seen a retracement in gains. Supply is decreasing, but demand is weak in various sectors, and inventory is slightly increasing. It is expected to enter a de - stocking phase in February, but the de - stocking amplitude is limited [14]. - **Building Materials and Fuels**: - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors support the market in the short term. High - sulfur supply has increased, and low - sulfur supply tightness has eased. The market is expected to follow crude oil and show a strong trend [22]. - **Asphalt**: It has been in an oscillatory range since early January. Cost provides support, but terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [23]. - **Urea**: The futures market is oscillating firmly, and the spot price is diverging. Supply pressure remains, and the market will continue to fluctuate within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: Due to the tense Iran situation, the market rose significantly. Overseas device operation is at a low level, and port inventory has slightly increased. It is expected to operate strongly in the short term and gradually de - stock in the long term [25]. - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand and price trends. For example, pure benzene is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and de - stock in the long term; styrene has cost support but short - term price pressure; and polypropylene, plastic, and propylene have complex supply - demand situations [26][27][28]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The market has digested the South American harvest expectations. Brazilian soybean harvesting is slow, and Chinese soybean procurement is progressing. The market may bottom - oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to Brazilian harvest and Canadian rapeseed imports [36]. - **Vegetable Oils**: Malaysian palm oil supply - demand has improved marginally, and US soybean oil policies are favorable. The market is affected by policies and macro - inflation trading [37]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The import situation of rapeseed is uncertain. The supply - demand difference between rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is conducive to the increase of the oil - meal ratio, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [38]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pigs**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price has declined. The industry will face accelerated slaughter before the Spring Festival, and pig prices may reach a low point in the first half of next year [41]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is strong due to supply reduction and pre - festival demand. The futures near - month contract is strong, and the far - month contract is weak. In the short term, observe whether the spot price can remain strong, and in the long term, consider going long on the first - half - year contracts at low prices [42]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: US cotton is at the bottom, and Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating at a high level. Demand is stable in the off - season, and the market may continue to oscillate [43]. - **Sugar**: International sugar production varies by country. In China, the market focuses on production differences, and short - term prices face pressure [44]. - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating. Spot trading has increased for pre - festival stocking, and attention should be paid to the impact of quality and sentiment on inventory reduction [45]. - **Wood and Pulp**: Wood prices are low, with low inventory providing support. Pulp demand is weak, and the short - term fundamentals are general [46][47]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - shares adjusted yesterday, and the market is affected by geopolitical situations, regulatory attitudes, and the Fed's decisions. The index is expected to change from a rapid rise to an oscillatory - strong trend [48]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On January 26, 2026, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated performance. The 30 - year bond continued to rise, and the curve flattened. Strategies include paying attention to TS - T steepening and T - TL flattening opportunities [49].

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai fluctuated around 103,400 CNY, while London copper traded near 13,200 USD [4][19] - U.S. durable goods orders for November increased by 5.3%, marking the largest growth in six months, which weakened expectations for interest rate cuts and put pressure on copper prices [5][19] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1,479 tons to 145,000 tons, while LME copper inventories fell by 1,175 tons to 170,000 tons [5][19] - Short-term copper prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply expectations, but high inventory levels may limit price increases [5][19] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel and stainless steel market continues to react to Indonesian policy developments, with prices expected to remain high in the short term [6][20] - The Indonesian policy outlook remains tight, with concerns over monopolistic behavior in logistics affecting market sentiment [6][20] - The reference trading range for nickel is set between 140,000 and 160,000 CNY per ton [7][21] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with spot prices stabilizing [8][22] - Supply-side adjustments are being made by high-cost producers, and logistics are tightening ahead of the Spring Festival, limiting further price declines [8][22] - The reference trading range for aluminum is projected between 23,500 and 24,500 CNY per ton [9][24] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed strong fluctuations, supported by low treatment charges (TC) and market sentiment [10][25] - The reference trading range for zinc is set between 24,500 and 26,000 CNY per ton [10][25] Group 5: Lead Market - The lead market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with supply-demand imbalances persisting [11][25] - The reference trading range for lead is projected between 16,800 and 17,800 CNY per ton [11][25] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a significant pullback after reaching new highs, driven by profit-taking and heightened market volatility [12][27] - The reference trading ranges for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are set at 1,120-1,160 CNY per gram, 27,000-29,500 CNY per kilogram, 660-720 CNY per gram, and 480-530 CNY per gram, respectively [12][27]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term due to a tight copper ore supply, seasonally weak refined copper demand, and increasing global visible inventories, with support from policy and sentiment [5]. - Aluminum prices are likely to be strong and range - bound as domestic inventory accumulation is not a major negative in the off - season, and LME inventory is low while US aluminum spot premiums are high, with support from loose policies at home and abroad [8]. - The lead industry is currently weak, but the surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally as winter transportation issues tighten recycled smelting raw materials [10]. - The zinc industry remains weak, but zinc prices are rising to catch up with the sector's macro - attributes as overseas natural gas price hikes raise concerns about European smelting costs, and zinc - copper and zinc - aluminum ratios are at low levels [12]. - Tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to capital games in the futures market, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term due to the expected reduction of RKAB quotas in Indonesia, and it is recommended to wait and see [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices have a potential callback risk due to large supply - side uncertainties and increased profit - taking after a rapid rise, and it is recommended to use light positions or options [19]. - Alumina prices may face difficulties in continuous rebound due to over - capacity, declining cost support, and delivery pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to rise further but with large fluctuations, as the raw material supply is expected to be tight and social inventory continues to decline [25]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong and range - bound due to strong cost support and continuous supply - side disturbances [28] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices hit new highs and then fell, copper prices also rose and then declined. LME copper 3M rose 0.42% to $13,183/ton, SHFE copper main contract closed at 103,460 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,175 tons to 170,525 tons, North American inventory growth slowed, and the cancelled warrant ratio decreased. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly, bonded area inventory decreased, and SHFE daily warrants decreased by 0.1 to 145,000 tons. Shanghai and Guangdong spot copper were at a discount to futures, and the spot import loss of SHFE copper widened to about 850 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 2,810 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term copper price may be range - bound. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract today is 101,000 - 104,500 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - 13,300/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Precious metals rose sharply and then fell, aluminum prices fluctuated and closed higher. LME aluminum closed up 0.69% at $3,195/ton, SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,380 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 0.7 to 732,000 lots, and futures warrants increased by 0.1 to 142,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased, aluminum rod processing fees rebounded with dull trading. The spot discount of East China electrolytic aluminum to futures widened, and LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.2 to 505,000 tons, with the cancelled warrant ratio decreasing [7]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong and range - bound. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract today is 24,100 - 24,600 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,140 - 3,220/ton [8] Lead - **Market Information**: On Monday, the SHFE lead index fell 0.16% to 17,079 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 102,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, LME lead 3S rose $1 to $2,027/ton, with a total position of 171,400 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,950 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,825 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 28,800 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract - first - month contract spread was - 60 yuan/ton. LME lead ingot inventory was 215,200 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 28,100 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 44.556 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 126.7 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.216, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 174.01 yuan/ton. As of January 26, the national main market lead ingot social inventory was 34,900 tons, an increase of 70 tons from January 22 [9]. - **Strategy**: Although the visible lead ore inventory is rising and higher than in previous years, high by - product profits suppress the further decline of lead concentrate TC. The primary smelting start - up rate has declined slightly but remains high, the recycled smelting start - up rate has increased marginally, and the finished product inventory of primary and recycled smelting plants and lead ingot social inventory have both increased. However, the surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Monday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.59% to 24,744 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 236,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, LME zinc 3S rose $53 to $3,292/ton, with a total position of 230,200 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,680 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 35 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 25 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong basis was 25 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai - Guangdong spread of 10 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,900 tons, the domestic Shanghai area basis was 35 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract - first - month contract spread was - 80 yuan/ton. LME zinc ingot inventory was 111,500 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 9,400 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 32.62 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 2 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.085, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 2,342.1 yuan/ton. As of January 26, the national main market zinc ingot social inventory was 109,900 tons, an increase of 130 tons from January 22 [11]. - **Strategy**: The visible zinc ore inventory is accumulating, zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized, zinc smelting profits have slightly recovered, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory destocking has slowed. After the SHFE - LME price ratio recovered, the outflow of zinc improved. Although short - term bullish sentiment has retreated, the rise in overseas natural gas prices has raised concerns about European smelting costs, and zinc prices are rising to catch up with the sector's macro - attributes [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On January 26, tin prices rose and then fell, and the SHFE tin main contract closed at 425,340 yuan/ton, down 0.98% from the previous day. SHFE inventory was reported at 8,624 tons, an increase of 42 tons from the previous day. In terms of supply, the smelter start - up rate in Yunnan remained stable at a high level last week, while Jiangxi's refined tin output was still low due to a shortage of recycled tin raw materials. In terms of demand, although high tin prices significantly suppressed downstream purchasing意愿, downstream inventories were generally low, and the acceptance of tin prices was gradually increasing. After the tin price fell last week, the rigid demand for replenishment was concentrated. As of January 23, 2026, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 11,001 tons, an increase of 365 tons from last Friday [13]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, tin prices are determined by capital games in the futures market. In the context of a strong trend in precious metals and the non - ferrous sector, tin prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for overseas LME tin is $52,000 - 58,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 26, nickel prices rose and then fell, and the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 145,380 yuan/ton, down 1.78% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 6,500 yuan/ton, down 1,750 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at $54.54/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at $23/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices rose significantly. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,050 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 7.5 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [15]. - **Strategy**: Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory. It is expected that SHFE nickel will fluctuate widely in the short term due to the expected reduction of RKAB quotas in Indonesia. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for SHFE nickel prices is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME nickel 3M contract is $16,000 - 19,000/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The WK Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 168,795 yuan in the evening session, down 3.45% from the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 165,500 - 173,000 yuan, with the average price down 6,000 yuan (- 3.42%) from the previous working day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 162,000 - 170,000 yuan, with the average price down 3.63% from the previous day. The LC2605 contract closed at 165,680 yuan, down 8.73% from the previous closing price, and the average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,600 yuan [18]. - **Strategy**: On Monday, lithium carbonate rose and then fell, and the total contract position decreased by 53,900 lots. Although the fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged, the supply - side uncertainty is large. After the previous rapid rise in lithium prices, there are more profit - taking orders, and there is a potential callback risk. It is recommended to use light positions or options. The reference range for the GZEE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 158,800 - 172,600 yuan/ton [19] Alumina - **Market Information**: As of 15:00 on January 26, 2026, the alumina index rose 0.37% to 2,729 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 679,300 lots, a decrease of 37,500 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 177 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price rose $1/ton to $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 84 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warrants on Monday were reported at 149,200 tons, an increase of 10,500 tons from the previous trading day. At the mine end, the Guinea CIF price remained at $62/ton, and the Australian CIF price remained at $60/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: After the rainy season, Guinea's shipments are gradually recovering, and with the resumption of production at the AXIS mine, the ore price is expected to decline. Alumina smelting over - capacity is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The market has increased expectations for the implementation of supply - contraction policies, but there are still difficulties in continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,645 yuan/ton, down 0.54% (- 80) on the day, with a long - short position of 319,200 lots, an increase of 834 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in the Foshan market was reported at 14,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil in the Wuxi market was reported at 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan from the previous day. The Foshan basis was - 395 (+ 180), and the Wuxi basis was - 345 (- 20). The Hongwang 201 in Foshan was reported at 9,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang annealed 430 was reported at 7,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of Shandong high - nickel iron was reported at 1,045 yuan/nickel, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day. The recycling price of Baoding 304 scrap steel industrial materials was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of high - carbon ferrochrome in the northern main production area was reported at 8,450 yuan/50 - base tons, unchanged from the previous day. The futures inventory was reported at 38,938 tons, a decrease of 7,180 tons from the previous day. As of January 23, social inventory decreased to 878,900 tons, a decrease of 0.51% month - on - month, of which 300 - series inventory was 599,500 tons, a decrease of 0.48% month - on - month [24]. - **Strategy**: Last week, the stainless steel market was active, and price fluctuations intensified. Due to the widening nickel - stainless steel price difference, some nickel - iron production capacity shifted to high - grade nickel matte production, resulting in a tight supply of nickel - iron and limited high - quality tradable resources in the market. In addition, futures warrants are at a low level, and the stainless steel market shows a structurally tight supply in the short term, with near - month contracts continuing to strengthen. Although downstream demand weakened before the Spring Festival, traders' enthusiasm for stocking increased, and social inventory continued to decline. If the Indonesian government intervenes in the suspected monopoly of port logistics in the Indonesian Tsingshan Industrial Park, the supply of stainless steel may be affected. Overall, the expectation of tight raw

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ (The meaning is not clearly defined in the context) [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Caustic Soda: The rating symbol is not clearly interpretable [1] - Soda Ash: The rating symbol is not clearly interpretable [1] - Glass: The rating symbol is not clearly interpretable [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ (The meaning is not clearly defined in the context) [1] - Pure Benzene: No clear rating provided in a comparable format 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products. Overall, different products face diverse situations in terms of supply and demand, cost, and inventory. Some products show short - term bullish trends under the influence of factors such as geopolitical situations, macro - sentiment, and production changes, while others are under pressure due to factors like weakening demand and high inventory. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose during the day. Market supply has no obvious pressure, production enterprise quotes are slightly adjusted, and the premium situation in real - order auctions has decreased. Downstream factories are more wait - and - see, mainly purchasing at low prices based on rigid demand [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures rose during the day, but fundamental support is limited. For polyethylene, supply pressure will increase with new device production and restart of maintenance devices, and demand is weakening as the year - end approaches. For polypropylene, the number of parking devices has increased recently, and the overall spot supply pressure is not large, but downstream demand is weak [2]. Polyester - Polyester had a smooth de - stocking before the festival. PTA has no new capacity in the first half of the year, so it is a long - position allocation. However, demand is currently declining, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. In the second quarter, considering PX maintenance and polyester load - increasing expectations, there are opportunities for long positions in PX processing margins and positive spreads [3]. - Ethylene glycol production decreased slightly last week. There are expectations of both supply and demand decline, and inventory is expected to accumulate around the Spring Festival. In the second quarter, there are expectations of concentrated maintenance and demand recovery. In the long - term, it is still under pressure due to capacity growth [3]. - Short - fiber enterprises have high loads and low inventories. Downstream orders are weak, and profits are thin. Affected by raw material price increases, downstream increased备货 last week, and prices rose following raw materials [3]. - Bottle - chip production decreased, and processing margins have been repaired under low - load and relatively low inventory levels. In the long - term, there is still capacity pressure [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The upward trend of pure benzene futures prices slowed down, and the basis of East China spot narrowed. The demand for pure benzene increased due to the recovery of downstream styrene profits and production. In the short - term, the market is expected to be volatile and bullish, and in the long - term, pure benzene is expected to gradually reduce inventory [5]. - Styrene futures fluctuated during the day. The cost support strengthened due to the rise of crude oil and pure benzene. The supply decreased due to device maintenance, and the demand was basically stable, so the price rose strongly. However, the futures price is far from the moving - average system, and there is short - term pressure as the Spring Festival stocking period is approaching the end [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market rose sharply due to the escalation of the geopolitical situation in Iran. Overseas device operation rates remained low, and port inventory increased slightly. In the short - term, the market is expected to be bullish under the boost of the macro - environment, and in the long - term, port inventory is expected to gradually decrease [6]. - Urea futures were stable in a fluctuating manner, and spot prices showed a differentiated trend. Before the Spring Festival, industrial downstream demand is expected to decline, and large - scale spring plowing fertilizer demand has not yet started. The supply pressure remains high, and the market will continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a bullish - biased fluctuating trend. Factory inventory decreased, but social inventory increased, and the overall inventory still has pressure. Exports are good, but domestic demand is average. It is expected that the price center will rise this year [7]. - Caustic soda showed a bullish - biased fluctuating trend. Liquid caustic soda prices have not yet stabilized and continue to decline. The industry inventory is under high pressure. The profit of chlor - alkali integration is acceptable, and the operation rate has rebounded. The follow - up production reduction needs to be continuously tracked [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash showed a bullish - biased fluctuating trend. Weekly inventory increased slightly, and the overall pressure is high. Supply pressure is large, and downstream purchasing sentiment is poor. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate with the macro - environment, and in the long - term, it faces over - supply pressure [8]. - Glass showed a bullish - biased fluctuating trend. Spot prices in some regions were raised today. Inventory fluctuates slightly, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation as downstream enterprises approach the holiday. Currently, the valuation is low, and it may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [8].

Core Insights - The contrasting price trends of gold and diamonds reflect differing market dynamics, with gold prices increasing nearly fourfold over the past decade, while diamond prices have dropped over 45% from their peak [1][4][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices have surged from approximately $1,000 per ounce in 2015 to over $5,100 per ounce by the end of 2022, marking a cumulative increase of nearly 400% [4]. - In contrast, the International Diamond Exchange (IDEX) diamond index has fallen from a peak of 158 in 2022 to around 86.08, representing a decline of over 45% [4]. - Major diamond producer De Beers has significantly reduced prices, with a historical price cut of 10% to 15% for rough diamonds, indicating a severe market downturn [4][5]. Group 2: Company Performance - The stock price of DR Jewelry's parent company, Diya Co., has plummeted over 80% from its peak, reflecting the struggles within the diamond market [6][7]. - Conversely, Zijin Mining, the largest gold company in A-shares, saw its market capitalization exceed 1 trillion yuan, with a stock price increase of 135.77% in 2025 [7]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in diamond demand is attributed to a cooling marriage market globally, with significant drops in marriage registrations in countries like Japan and South Korea [8]. - The supply side has also changed, with the traditional monopoly of De Beers diminishing as new diamond mines are discovered worldwide [9]. - The rise of lab-grown diamonds, which are produced at a fraction of the cost of natural diamonds, is reshaping the industry, with lab-grown diamonds priced at 10% to 20% of natural diamonds [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the divergence in price trends between gold and diamonds is unlikely to reverse in the short term, although new market variables may emerge [10]. - The long-term value of natural diamonds is supported by their scarcity and steady market demand, despite short-term price fluctuations influenced by inventory levels and global interest rates [12].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 26 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 期市综述 截止 1 月 26 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，沪银涨近 13% ...