Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - The cotton market is facing a complex situation. Internationally, the extension of India's tariff exemption time supports US cotton, and the USDA's adjustment of global cotton supply and demand has made the pattern tighter. However, the adjustment of some countries' production may not be in place, and the slow export sales of US cotton limit its upside. Domestically, the rapid de - stocking of cotton, low commercial inventory, and the late and limited issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas support domestic cotton prices in the short term. But the expected increase in production in the new year and potential hedging pressure during the new flower listing period limit the upside [2]. - The sugar market has a situation where the continuous high profit of out - of - quota imports and the large increase in imports in July have led to sufficient short - term supply, putting pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices. However, the low domestic sugar inventory and the sugar mills' willingness to support prices provide some support [5]. - The pulp market has supply pressure due to planned domestic pulp capacity expansion and high port inventories. On the demand side, weak consumption in Europe and the US, low domestic demand during the off - season, and over - capacity in the paper industry lead to limited demand improvement, and the pulp price is expected to oscillate at a low level [7][8]. Summary by Directory Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,045 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.14%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,324 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,412 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton. As of September 1, 2025, the weekly listing volume of Indian cotton was 0.7 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 87%, and the cumulative listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 5.1749 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 5% [1]. Market Analysis - International: India's extension of the tariff exemption time supports US cotton. The USDA's August report tightened the global cotton supply - demand pattern, but the production adjustment of some countries may be incomplete. The slow export sales of US cotton limit its upside, and the ICE US cotton may be in the 65 - 70 cents range in the short term. - Domestic: The rapid de - stocking of domestic cotton, low commercial inventory, and the late and limited issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas have not solved the short - term cotton shortage in Xinjiang. The supply is tight at the end of this season, and the approaching peak season improves demand. However, the expected increase in production in the new year and potential hedging pressure during the new flower listing period limit the upside [2]. Strategy - Neutral to bullish. In the short term, the tight supply, approaching peak season, and potential for抢购 may lead to a bullish oscillation of Zhengzhou cotton before the large - scale listing of new flowers. In the medium term, the expected high yield in the new year and potential weak peak season may lead to a decline in cotton prices [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,599 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. India allows sugar mills to use various raw materials to produce ethanol to ensure domestic sugar supply [3]. Market Analysis - International: Brazil's Conab and other institutions have lowered the sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season in the central - southern region. Pakistan's sugar purchase supports sugar prices, but Brazil's peak crushing season and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere limit the upside. - Domestic: The continuous high profit of out - of - quota imports and the large increase in imports in July have led to sufficient short - term supply, putting pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [4][5]. Strategy - Neutral. The low domestic sugar inventory and the sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the further decline of Zhengzhou sugar prices [5]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,042 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp spot market was generally stable, with only minor fluctuations [5][6]. Market Analysis - Supply: There will be more pulp capacity put into production in the second half of the year in China, and the import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline. However, the slow de - stocking of ports and high inventory levels keep the supply pressure high, and the supply of hardwood pulp is looser than that of softwood pulp. - Demand: Weak pulp consumption in Europe and the US, increasing inventory pressure on global pulp mills, and low domestic demand during the off - season, over - capacity in the paper industry, and limited improvement in terminal demand are expected in the second half of the year [7]. Strategy - Neutral. The lack of improvement in the pulp market fundamentals and the absence of positive drivers suggest that the pulp price will continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The TC price on the supply side continues to decline, and smelter maintenance has increased. On the consumption side, the inventory clearance of dealers is slow, and the procurement willingness is low, with some enterprises accumulating finished - product inventory. Additionally, the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles and the Middle East tariff policy in September brings uncertainty to consumption. Therefore, the lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On September 2, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$42.47/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to -30.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead remained unchanged at 16,750 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead remained at 16,725 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead remained at 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton, waste white shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton, and waste black shells remained at 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On September 2, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,875 yuan/ton and closed at 16,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 42,223 lots, an increase of 2,369 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 51,504 lots, an increase of 487 lots. During the day, the price fluctuated, with a high of 16,950 yuan/ton and a low of 16,830 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,810 yuan/ton and closed at 16,895 yuan/ton, a 0.12% increase from the previous afternoon [1] Inventory - On September 2, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 67,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of September 2, the LME lead inventory was 258,025 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous trading day [2] Trading - The SMM1 lead price remained flat on the previous day. In Henan, suppliers quoted at par with the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 110 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. In Hunan, branded lead smelters quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, and some suppliers quoted at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, suppliers quoted at a premium of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. With the lead price consolidating, downstream buyers made purchases at low prices, and the spot trading in some regions improved [2] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is that the unilateral strategy is to expect a sideways movement, while the cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies are not recommended [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The asphalt market continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, with support at the lower end of the market. The futures market may continue to move within a range, with support at the bottom but insufficient upward momentum [1][2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 1st, the closing price of the main BU2510 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,540 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 109,607 lots, a decrease of 10,112 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 164,623 lots, an increase of 7,881 lots [2] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were as follows: Northeast 3,806 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong 3,450 - 3,820 yuan/ton; South China 3,490 - 3,530 yuan/ton; East China 3,560 - 3,750 yuan/ton. The price in the North China market declined slightly, while prices in the Northwest, Shandong, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions increased, and prices in other regions remained generally stable. The average domestic asphalt price increased due to the price adjustment of major refineries at the end of the month. However, the demand for high - priced products was weak due to poor project funding, and the peak - season characteristics on the demand side were not obvious. On the supply side, the growth was limited, the operating rate of plants decreased again, the inventory remained low, and the destocking trend continued, with limited overall pressure [2] Strategy - The unilateral strategy for asphalt futures is to expect a sideways movement, and there are no recommendations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of rebar 2510 is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the poor supply - demand pattern and the steel price is searching for the bottom weakly [2]. - In the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, industrial contradictions have accumulated, inventory has continued to increase, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. It is expected that rebar will continue the trend of searching for the bottom weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating weakly. The view reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the poor supply - demand pattern and the steel price is searching for the bottom weakly [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. The production of construction steel mills is active, and the rebar output has rebounded to the highest level this year, increasing the supply pressure. The demand for rebar has improved, with high - frequency indicators rising from the low level, but it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the improvement space is limited due to the lack of improvement in downstream industries. In the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, industrial contradictions have accumulated, inventory has continued to increase, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the rising cost and the expectation of the peak season [3].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for the chemical sector is mostly in the red, with soda ash futures showing a downward trend, opening at 1296.00 CNY/ton and experiencing a drop of 3.00% to a low of 1257.00 CNY/ton during the session [1] - East China Futures analysis indicates that the soda ash market is under pressure due to high supply and inventory coupled with weak demand, leading to a short-term oscillation in prices [1] - Ningzheng Futures notes that while float glass production remains stable and inventory has slightly decreased, the overall domestic soda ash market is weak, with some production facilities gradually resuming operations, which is expected to increase overall output this week [1] Group 2 - Zhonghui Futures reports that the current transaction volume in the Shihe market is average, with prices declining and basis strengthening, while high inventory levels are being reduced [2] - The upstream production is expected to maintain high levels, with few maintenance activities scheduled for September, and demand primarily driven by essential needs [2] - The strategy suggests a continued loose supply-demand balance, with resistance at the 5-day moving average, indicating a bearish outlook for any potential price rebounds [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the recent device changes are frequent, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, the spot basis fluctuates within a range, and the short - term spot price is expected to follow the trend of oscillation. However, the current processing margin still needs improvement. Attention should be paid to the maintenance duration of Hengli Huizhou's device and subsequent changes in upstream and downstream devices [5]. - For MEG, the arrival of goods at ports is scarce in late August, and the port inventory will continue to decline in the next two weeks. From early September, the arrival of foreign goods will increase. The short - term trend is mainly oscillating and strengthening under the resonance of low port inventory and the expectation of the polyester peak season. But there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the long - term. Follow - up attention should be paid to polyester load and production and sales changes [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No information provided in the content 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and declined yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis loosened slightly. There were transactions at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 01 contract this week and next week, and individual transactions at 09 + 20. The price negotiation range was around 4800 - 4875. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 18 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4837, the basis of the 01 contract is 13, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.71 days, an increase of 0.05 days compared with the previous period, showing a bearish situation [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish situation [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position is short, and the short position is increasing, showing a bearish situation [6]. - **Expectation**: The short - term PTA spot price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the maintenance duration of Hengli Huizhou's device and subsequent device changes in the upstream and downstream [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol price oscillated and adjusted. The market negotiation was average. In the morning, driven by the unexpected news of the Singapore device, the futures price rose briefly, and the sellers were reluctant to sell, and the basis strengthened. In the afternoon, as the commodity atmosphere weakened, the ethylene glycol futures price oscillated and declined, but the basis continued to be strong. The high - level spot basis was traded at a premium of 65 - 67 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The foreign market negotiation was light, and the offer was scarce. The price in the morning was high, and the buying was limited. In the afternoon, as the commodity atmosphere declined, the foreign price fell, and individual transactions were around 534 US dollars/ton [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4550, the basis of the 01 contract is 69, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 50.05 tons, a decrease of 2.69 tons compared with the previous period, showing a bullish situation [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is short, and the short position is increasing, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Expectation**: The port inventory will continue to decline in the next two weeks. From early September, the arrival of foreign goods will increase. The short - term trend is mainly oscillating and strengthening, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the long - term. Pay attention to polyester load and production and sales changes [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Likely Positive Factors**: In August, some PTA device maintenance plans are expected to improve supply - demand. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has some expectations for demand. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device has stopped for maintenance, and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million - ton device has stopped unexpectedly [10]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere is still cautious [9]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Pay attention to the cost side, and the upward resistance level of the futures price should be noted during the rebound [9]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and ending inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. 3.5. Price - related Charts - Include charts of bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory, PTA and MEG basis, inter - month spreads, spot spreads, and inventory analysis, etc., with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and CCF [13][27][44][63][69]. 3.6. Profit - related Charts - Include charts of PTA processing fees, MEG production margins from different production methods, and production margins of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY), with data sources from Wind, Mysteel [63][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak and volatile trend, with a daily decline of 0.48%. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar in the off - season remain poor, and the steel price is under pressure. However, the cost increase limits the downward space. In the short term, it is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil declined in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.92%. The demand for hot - rolled coil shows good resilience, which supports the price. But the fundamentals have not improved under the high - supply pattern. The cost increase and production - restriction disturbances are relatively positive factors. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.64%. The demand for iron ore shows certain resilience, which supports the price. However, the fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and the valuation is relatively high, with weak upward driving force. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to July, China completed 394.6 billion person - times of cross - regional population movement, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. The traffic fixed - asset investment reached 1.95 trillion yuan. In July, the volume of commercial freight reached 497 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, the volume of commercial freight reached 33 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [6]. - In 2025, the national plan is to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to July, 19,800 old urban residential areas started renovation. Six regions including Hebei, Liaoning, etc. had a start - up rate of over 90% [7]. - From January to July, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet decreased, while the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remained unchanged. The prices of 61.5% PB powder decreased, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained stable. The sea freight, SGX swap, and Platts Index also showed certain changes [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of rebar futures was 3,111 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. - The closing price of hot - rolled coil futures was 3,349 yuan, with a decline of 0.92%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. - The closing price of iron ore futures was 775.5 yuan, with a decline of 0.64%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased [11]. 4. Related Charts - The charts show the inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, the production situation of steel mills, etc., including weekly changes, total inventory, and seasonal trends [13][18][26]. 5. Future Market Judgment - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern remains weak, with continuous inventory accumulation. The weekly output decreased, but the profit per ton is acceptable, and the sustainability of production reduction needs to be tracked. The demand is at a low level, and the steel price is under pressure. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend [33]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply increased, and the demand showed good resilience. However, the high - supply pattern has not improved the fundamentals. The cost increase and production - restriction disturbances are positive factors, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [33]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern changed little. The demand showed certain resilience, but the fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and the valuation is relatively high. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views - Cotton: The USDA in August significantly adjusted global cotton production and ending stocks, shifting the supply - demand pattern from loose to tight. However, the production adjustments for some countries may not be sufficient, and the realization of the production cut expectation is uncertain. In China, the commercial cotton inventory is at a historical low, and the new cotton is expected to increase in production. The quota policy has a limited impact on the market [2]. - Sugar: The estimated sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region has been lowered, which limits the decline of raw sugar prices. But Brazil is in the peak crushing season, and the northern hemisphere has an increasing production expectation. In China, the import volume is expected to increase, putting pressure on sugar prices [5][6]. - Pulp: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased. There will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half of the year. The port inventory is high, and the demand is weak. The overall pulp market lacks positive drivers [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.14%) from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,235 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,334 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton [1]. - Market Information: As of the week ending August 23, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 60.3%, 11.4 percentage points higher than the previous week but 15.8% slower than the same period last year. As of August 25, India's weekly cotton market volume was 0.8 million tons, a 20% year - on - year decline [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA adjusted the global cotton balance sheet, but the production adjustment for some countries may not be in place, and the realization of the production cut expectation is uncertain. The US cotton balance sheet is expected to improve, supporting international cotton prices [2]. - Domestic: The "anti - involution" is over, and the Sino - US tariff truce is extended. The commercial cotton inventory is at a historical low, supporting cotton prices. The sliding - scale quota policy has limited impact on the market. The new cotton is expected to increase in production, and there will be hedging pressure during the new cotton listing period [2]. Strategy - Be neutral. Pay attention to the peak - season demand. If the demand improves, cotton prices may be strong before the new cotton is listed; otherwise, there will be pressure during the listing period [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,632 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton (-0.98%) from the previous day [4]. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,860 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - Market Information: Conab predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 sugarcane production would be 668.8 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease. The harvest area increased by 1%, but the yield per unit decreased by 2.1% [4]. Market Analysis - International: The estimated sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region has been lowered, limiting the decline of raw sugar prices. Brazil is in the peak crushing season, and the northern hemisphere has an increasing production expectation, so raw sugar prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - Domestic: The profit of out - of - quota sugar imports has been high for months, and the import volume in July increased significantly. The import supply in August - September is expected to increase, putting pressure on sugar prices [6]. Strategy - Be neutral. The negative impact of import expectations has been reflected in the market. Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, due to low inventory and late - growing sugarcane, there may be a price increase in the fourth quarter [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,070 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton (-1.29%) from the previous day [7]. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,110 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Information: The import wood pulp spot market had individual price fluctuations. The trading volume of imported softwood pulp did not improve significantly, and the cost was under pressure. Some prices of imported hardwood pulp increased, while the supply and demand of imported natural pulp and chemical mechanical pulp were weak [7]. Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased, and more pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [8]. - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the inventory pressure of global pulp mills is increasing. The domestic demand is weak, the finished paper inventory is high, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [8]. Strategy - Be neutral. The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions on dips and taking profits, and left - side trading for September's Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - induced supply disruptions [2]. - For methanol, the cost has increased due to rising coal prices, domestic supply is increasing, and overseas imports are expected to rise. The demand is currently weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on positive spread opportunities after the improvement of supply - demand [4]. - Urea faces a situation of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The supply pressure remains, and the domestic demand lacks support. The main demand variable is exports. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [6]. - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate strongly. A neutral - long approach is suggested, with short - term long positions on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Partial liquidation of the strategy of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 is recommended [13]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [15]. - For styrene, the long - term BZN spread is expected to recover. When the inventory de - stocking inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - Polyethylene is expected to have an upward - trending price in the long - run, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21]. - PX is expected to maintain low inventories, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [24]. - PTA's supply - demand pattern has changed from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [25]. - Ethylene glycol has an oversupply situation in the medium - term, and there is downward pressure on its valuation [26]. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.43, or 2.21%, to $63.31; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.49, or 2.17%, to $67.25; INE main crude oil futures rose 3.20 yuan, or 0.66%, to 488.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: In the weekly data of Fujairah Port's oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.09 million barrels to 6.97 million barrels, a 13.47% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.82 million barrels to 1.46 million barrels, a 35.88% decline; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 7.18 million barrels, a 6.30% increase; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.48 million barrels to 15.61 million barrels, an 8.65% decline [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 26, the 01 contract fell 29 yuan/ton to 2395 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 120 [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Coal prices are rising, domestic supply is increasing, overseas imports are expected to rise rapidly. The demand from port MTO plants is temporarily stopped and expected to resume at the end of the month, and traditional demand is weak [4]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on positive spread opportunities after the improvement of supply - demand [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 26, the 01 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained stable, with a basis of - 47 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production is at a high level, and the enterprise profit is at a low level. The domestic demand is weak, and the main demand variable is exports [6]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are oscillating and consolidating [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls believe in factors such as weather in Southeast Asia, seasonal trends, and improved demand expectations in China; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal demand slumps, and less - than - expected supply benefits [10]. - **Industry Situation**: As of August 21, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from last week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from last week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year [11]. - **Inventory**: As of August 18, 2024, China's natural rubber social inventory was 121.7 million tons, up 0.4 million tons or 0.34% from the previous period; as of August 17, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) million tons [12]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate strongly. A neutral - long approach is suggested, with short - term long positions on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Partial liquidation of the strategy of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 is recommended [13]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 48 yuan to 4999 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4760 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 239 (+ 38) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 145 (+ 9) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate of PVC decreased, the downstream operating rate decreased slightly, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased. The enterprise profit is at a high level, and the export expectation is weak [15]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [15]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices of styrene fell, and the basis strengthened [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The macro - sentiment is good, the cost support remains, the BZN spread has room to recover, the supply is increasing, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is rising [17][18]. - **Strategy**: When the inventory de - stocking inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound [18]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene fell, and the spot price rose [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in Q3, the cost support remains, the inventory is being depleted, and the demand for agricultural film raw materials is starting to stockpile [20]. - **Strategy**: The long - term price is expected to oscillate upward [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene fell, and the spot price remained stable [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: A new integrated device has been put into production, the demand - side operating rate is oscillating at a low level, and the inventory pressure is high [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 24 yuan to 6994 yuan, and the PX CFR rose $5 to $864 [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is at a high level, the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, the overall load center is low, but due to new PTA device put - ins, PX is expected to maintain low inventories [23][24]. - **Strategy**: There are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [24]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 8 yuan to 4870 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 20 yuan/ton to 4870 yuan [25]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load decreased, the downstream load increased, and the inventory decreased. The supply - demand pattern has changed from inventory accumulation to de - stocking [25]. - **Strategy**: There are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [25]. MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 19 yuan to 4490 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 11 yuan to 4553 yuan [26]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, the downstream load is increasing, the port inventory is decreasing, but there is an oversupply situation in the medium - term [26]. - **Strategy**: There is downward pressure on its valuation in the medium - term [26].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The pure benzene market shows short - term resilience but faces increasing supply - demand contradictions and price decline risks after September [3]. - The styrene market has a short - term strong and medium - term pressured pattern, with limited upward price movement and a long - term supply - surplus situation [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On August 25, the styrene main contract closed down 0.65% at 7,330 yuan/ton with a basis of 25 (+28 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.03% at 6,206 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On August 25, Brent crude closed at 63.7 (+0.1 dollars/barrel), WTI crude at 67.7 dollars/barrel, and East China pure benzene spot was 6,072.5 yuan/ton (-17.5 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 20.3 tons (-0.3 tons), a 1.1% de - stocking; Jiangsu port inventory was 16.2 tons (+1.3 tons), an 8.5% stocking. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.4 tons (-0.2 tons), a 1.1% de - stocking [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene may have reduced supply due to plant maintenance at the end of August. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 37.1 tons (+0.2 tons) with a plant capacity utilization of 78.5% (+0.3%) [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream 3S开工率 varies. EPS capacity utilization is 61.0% (+2.9%), ABS 71.1% (+0%), and PS 57.5% (+1.1%), showing a continuous increase [2]. - **Views** - **Pure Benzene**: In the short - term, it maintains resilience due to plant fluctuations and low inventory, but after September, supply - demand contradictions may intensify, and prices may decline [3]. - **Styrene**: It has a short - term strong and medium - term pressured pattern. Short - term price increase is limited, and the medium - term is in an oversupply situation [4]. II. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: The report provides price data for styrene and pure benzene from August 22 to August 25, including futures, spot, and various price differences [6]. - **Output and Inventory**: From August 15 to August 22, styrene output increased by 0.45% to 37.1 tons, and pure benzene output increased by 1.26% to 45.1 tons. Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 8.53% to 16.2 tons, and pure benzene port inventory decreased by 1.37% to 14.4 tons [7]. - **Capacity Utilization**: From August 15 to August 22, the capacity utilization of styrene increased by 0.35% to 78.5%, and that of some downstream products changed to varying degrees [8]. III. Industry News - On the 22nd, the Russia - Ukraine peace talks faced difficulties, causing international oil prices to rise [9]. - Global diesel shortages support refinery profits, affecting the crude oil and chemical industry chain [9]. - India plans to expand petrochemical production to counter China's dominance in the global petrochemical market [9]. IV. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on pure benzene and styrene prices, production, inventory, and capacity utilization from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]