Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significance of the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks and the critical economic data releases that could influence market trends in the near future [1][4]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Talks - U.S. and China held constructive discussions on economic relations and macroeconomic policies, reaffirming previous agreements [2][3]. - The talks resulted in a consensus to extend the suspension of certain tariffs for 90 days, which is seen as a positive development [3]. Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data - A series of important U.S. economic data releases, including Q2 GDP and non-farm payrolls, are expected to set the market tone for the remainder of the year [4][8]. - The Atlanta Fed predicts a Q2 GDP annualized growth rate of approximately 2.9%, primarily due to a decline in imports [8]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain the interest rate range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with market focus on potential divergences among policymakers regarding interest rate decisions [9]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - The upcoming "super week" is viewed as a significant test for Wall Street, especially after a substantial rebound in the stock market since April [5][6]. - The earnings reports from major tech companies like Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, which collectively have a market cap exceeding $11 trillion, are crucial for assessing market valuations [12][14]. - The S&P 500 index has risen by 8.3% this year, with a forward P/E ratio of 22, raising concerns about the sustainability of current valuations [14]. Group 4: Trade Policy Uncertainty - The deadline for implementing "reciprocal" tariffs by the Trump administration is approaching, with market sentiment having improved due to recent trade agreements [15]. - Despite the positive sentiment, uncertainties regarding tariffs and trade policies remain, as highlighted by market strategists [16]. Group 5: Focus on China’s Economic Policies - The upcoming Chinese Politburo meeting is expected to address economic conditions and potential policy measures to stabilize the real estate market and boost consumption [7][16]. - Analysts anticipate discussions on the real estate sector's recovery, anti-competitive practices, and fiscal and monetary policy directions [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions of various financial derivatives and commodity futures on July 30, 2025. It presents the market performance, influencing factors, and operation suggestions for each category, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping futures, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - policies, international trade negotiations, and seasonal demand changes. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, A - shares showed an intraday upward trend, with all major indices closing in the green. The technology sector led the rally, while high - dividend sectors declined. All four major stock index futures contracts rose with the indices. With the market approaching the mid - report disclosure period, it is necessary to verify the substantial improvement of corporate earnings. It is recommended to gradually take profits on IM futures long positions and switch to a small amount of MO put option short positions with an exercise price of 6000 on the 08 contract [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock market was strong, and there were expectations of incremental policies from the Politburo meeting, causing treasury bond futures to decline significantly. Long - term bonds were more strongly suppressed by policy expectations, while the loosening of funds supported short - term bonds. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the incremental policies of the Politburo meeting and the progress of Sino - US negotiations. The 2509 - 2512 contract inter - period spread may tend to rise in the short term [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: As the Fed's interest rate decision approaches, precious metals are in a state of shock consolidation. The market will gradually return to the influence logic of the US economic fundamentals. It is recommended to buy gold at low levels during the correction and buy silver at low levels above $38. The inflow of institutional funds into ETFs provides short - term support for prices [7][9][10]. Container Shipping Futures - **EC**: The main contract is in a weak shock state. The current mainstream shipping companies have announced their August prices, and the uncertainty has decreased. It is expected to show a weak shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [11][12]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market is in a narrow - range shock, waiting for macro driving factors. The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the demand shows resilience in the short - term. The inventories of COMEX, LME, and domestic social inventories are all increasing. It is expected to be in a shock state, and the main contract is expected to trade between 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [13][15][16]. - **Alumina**: The warehouse receipts have decreased again, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to be tight, and the inventory of warehouse receipts is low, supporting the price in the short - term. However, the market is expected to be slightly oversupplied in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term, with the main contract expected to trade between 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has slightly declined, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The supply is stable, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton [19][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The terminal consumption in the off - season is weak, and the social inventory in the main consumption areas is close to full. The supply is expected to decline slightly in July, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the main contract is expected to trade between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [21][22][23]. - **Zinc**: The Sino - US trade negotiations have started, and the market is waiting for macro guidance. The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the production growth rate is lower than expected. The demand is affected by the off - season and the rise in price. It is expected to be in a shock state, and the main contract is expected to trade between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [23][24][27]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the tin price has fallen from a high level. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and the market is expected to be in a wide - range shock [27][28][29]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment has gradually been digested, and the nickel price is in a weak shock state. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is stable in the electroplating and alloy sectors but weak in the stainless steel and nickel sulfate sectors. It is expected to be in a range adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 120,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [29][30][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market is in a narrow - range shock, and the demand is still dragged down. The supply is slightly reduced, but the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a range operation, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton [32][33][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has not improved significantly, and the trading core has shifted to the mining end. The supply is relatively high in the short - term, and the demand is stable. The whole - link inventory is increasing, but the growth rate has slowed down. It is recommended to wait and see carefully, and the market is expected to be in a wide - range shock [35][36][38]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The expectation of production restrictions has affected the steel price to strengthen. The cost has increased, and the profit of steel mills has improved. The supply is expected to be affected by production restrictions, and the demand is seasonally stable. It is recommended to try long positions as the steel price has broken through the previous high [40][41]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price. The global shipment volume has increased, and the port inventory has slightly increased. The demand for iron ore is supported by the high - level iron water production. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [42][45]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price has fluctuated greatly, and the spot price has increased steadily. The supply is tight, and the demand is strong. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore, avoiding the risk of exchange intervention [46][50][51]. - **Coke**: The fourth price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price increases. The supply is difficult to increase due to corporate losses, and the demand is supported by the recovery of iron water production. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on coke and short on iron ore, avoiding the risk of exchange intervention [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The bottom of US soybeans is well - supported, but the supply - demand situation suppresses the meal price. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the supply is high in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57][58]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a weak state, and the previous policy benefits have been digested. The supply and demand are both weak, and the short - term price is not optimistic. It is recommended to be cautious when shorting the far - month contracts and pay attention to the impact of hedging funds [59][60]. - **Corn**: The market is in a state of long - short balance, and the price is in a shock state. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is weak. The substitution effect is slowing down. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent policy auctions [61][62]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic sugar price is also in a bottom - shock state. The international market has no new driving factors, and the domestic supply - demand situation is gradually becoming looser. It is recommended to maintain a short - biased view after a rebound [63]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a range - shock in the short - term and under pressure after the new cotton is listed. The supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the demand is weak [64].

Industry Overview Upstream - Non-metallic: Glass prices continue to rebound [3] - Non-ferrous metals: Prices fluctuate [3] Midstream - Chemical industry: The operating rate of PX has declined [3] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in third-tier cities have seasonally declined [4] - Services: The number of domestic flights during the summer vacation has increased [4] Meso-level Event Overview Production Industry - Sino-US talks have postponed trade conflicts. From July 28th to 29th, the Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Stockholm, Sweden. According to the consensus, the suspension of the 24% US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures will be extended for 90 days [1] - NVIDIA co-founder and CEO Huang Renxun believes that the wealth creation ability of artificial intelligence (AI) will exceed that of the Internet in the next 5 years [1] Service Industry - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for the global economic growth rate for this year and next year to 3.0% and 3.1% respectively. It has also significantly raised China's economic growth rate for this year to 4.8% [2] Industry Credit Spread Tracking | Industry | Last Year | Quarterly | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting | 85.59 | 77.83 | 57.09 | 47.35 | 49.07 | 0.70 | | Mining | 33.06 | 46.36 | 37.35 | 27.48 | 31.05 | 2.00 | | Chemicals | 68.16 | 62.06 | 49.18 | 42.09 | 44.87 | 1.00 | | Steel | 37.13 | 55.10 | 47.48 | 37.99 | 41.94 | 6.50 | | Non-ferrous Metals | 39.26 | 56.54 | 49.42 | 40.23 | 42.58 | 5.30 | | Electronics | 52.58 | 70.94 | 54.62 | 43.31 | 42.35 | 0.00 | | Automobiles | 57.44 | 50.32 | 39.92 | 29.66 | 34.14 | 1.20 | | Household Appliances | 36.95 | 47.58 | 47.10 | 39.12 | 43.09 | 8.10 | | Food and Beverage | 36.18 | 45.25 | 37.12 | 28.44 | 30.25 | 0.50 | | Textile and Apparel | 44.99 | 53.41 | 52.65 | 39.28 | 42.30 | 1.20 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 47.59 | 167.09 | 146.32 | 132.29 | 133.75 | 7.70 | | Medicine and Biology | 52.07 | 71.30 | 53.47 | 43.92 | 46.74 | 0.90 | | Public Utilities | 25.15 | 33.57 | 27.41 | 20.28 | 23.82 | 2.80 | | Transportation | 26.46 | 36.88 | 30.25 | 23.79 | 26.92 | 4.50 | | Real Estate | 207.49 | 126.20 | 100.80 | 86.02 | 88.85 | 0.70 | | Commercial Trade | 39.88 | 50.24 | 42.17 | 32.90 | 36.79 | 1.50 | | Leisure Services | 73.88 | 119.48 | 118.95 | 105.46 | 105.42 | 85.50 | | Banks | 23.36 | 19.80 | 18.64 | 13.86 | 16.79 | 4.10 | | Non-bank Finance | 25.43 | 34.18 | 30.08 | 23.84 | 26.46 | 5.10 | | Comprehensive | 69.95 | 49.74 | 41.37 | 32.62 | 36.37 | 1.70 | | Building Materials | 33.33 | 46.19 | 37.31 | 24.78 | 28.14 | 0.70 | | Building Decoration | 37.97 | 54.48 | 51.32 | 42.89 | 46.49 | 9.90 | | Electrical Equipment | 53.97 | 79.25 | 72.51 | 66.34 | 69.49 | 29.00 | | Machinery and Equipment | 28.21 | 44.64 | 44.40 | 36.28 | 40.18 | 15.10 | | Computers | 66.65 | 61.96 | 46.60 | 33.72 | 36.84 | 1.00 | | Media | 240.02 | 45.79 | 37.92 | 29.70 | 34.29 | 1.30 | | Communications | 27.80 | 29.18 | 29.10 | 24.15 | 27.79 | 6.60 | [48] Key Industry Price Index Tracking | Industry Name | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | 5-Day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Corn Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 2332.9 | -0.24% | - | | | Egg Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/kg | 7/29 | 6.8 | 3.03% | - | | | Palm Oil Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 9032.0 | 0.42% | - | | | Cotton Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 15557.5 | 0.05% | - | | | Average Wholesale Price of Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 7/29 | 20.5 | -1.16% | - | | Non-ferrous Metals | Copper Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 79043.3 | -0.91% | - | | | Zinc Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 22562.0 | -0.91% | - | | | Aluminum Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 20676.7 | -1.30% | - | | | Nickel Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 122683.3 | -1.39% | - | | | Lead Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 16850.0 | 0.26% | - | | | Rebar Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 3371.0 | 2.24% | - | | Ferrous Metals | Iron Ore Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 789.7 | -1.15% | - | | | Wire Rod Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 3555.0 | 1.64% | - | | | Glass Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 7/29 | 16.1 | 8.81% | - | | Non-metals | Natural Rubber Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 15066.7 | -0.28% | - | | | China Plastic City Price Index | Daily | - | 7/29 | 812.3 | -0.29% | - | | | WTI Crude Oil Spot Price | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 7/29 | 66.7 | 1.15% | - | | Energy | Brent Crude Oil Spot Price | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 7/29 | 70.0 | 1.20% | - | | | Liquefied Natural Gas Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 4152.0 | -1.14% | - | | | Coal Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 768.0 | 1.59% | - | | | PTA Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 4863.3 | 0.96% | - | | Chemicals | Polyethylene Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 7453.3 | 0.88% | - | | | Urea Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 1817.5 | -0.95% | - | | | Soda Ash Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 1315.0 | 5.20% | - | | | National Cement Price Index | Daily | - | 7/29 | 130.1 | -0.53% | - | | Real Estate | Building Materials Comprehensive Index | Daily | Points | 7/29 | 117.6 | 0.72% | - | | | National Concrete Price Index | Daily | Points | 7/29 | 94.1 | -0.82% | - | [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Domestically, the long - awaited parenting subsidy policy has been officially implemented, which will increase residents' income and boost consumption, especially in low - income areas. It also breaks the household registration limit. Although more supporting policies are needed to enhance fertility willingness, this policy is a step in the right direction. Meanwhile, the Sino - US trade negotiation has achieved phased results, and the Politburo meeting and the Fed's interest rate decision should be focused on [2]. - Overseas, the market generally expects the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. The key points of the decision are the expected guidance on future interest rate cuts and the Fed's statements on subsequent price trends and economic data [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the US dollar index continues to rebound. Without major event shocks, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7.15 - 7.20 [3]. - For the stock index, the Sino - US negotiation results are out, and it is expected to maintain an upward trend. The small and medium - cap stock indexes are stronger, and the new Sino - US negotiation results may further drive the stock index up [4][5]. - For treasury bonds, wait for the uncertainties to land. Temporarily, trading positions should be on the sidelines [5][6]. - For container shipping, the opening quotes of Maersk continue to decline. The EC is expected to be slightly volatile and decline, but beware of the impact of event factors and capital [6][7]. - For precious metals, focus on the Fed's FOMC. The medium - and long - term trend may be bullish, but the short - term London gold may fluctuate greatly. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [8][10]. - For zinc, the short - term trading logic remains unchanged, and it is appropriate to sell on rallies [13]. - For nickel and stainless steel, the short - term may continue to fluctuate, and the long - term trend is bearish [13]. - For lithium carbonate, there are still disturbances, and pay attention to position risks [14][16]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the market is likely to remain volatile and slightly strong in the short term. For polysilicon, pay attention to the emotional fluctuations caused by the downstream component price transmission [16][17]. - For lead, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Wait for the arrival of the peak season and observe the macro and downstream buying sentiment [18]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, the market has upward momentum, and focus on the actual demand for steel and the implementation details of the "anti - involution" policy [19]. - For iron ore, it is expected to be strong in the short term [20]. - For coking coal and coke, the upward trend remains unchanged in the short term. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and Sino - US trade negotiation progress, and beware of the callback risk caused by insufficient macro - policies [21][22]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, beware of the risks of chasing high in the short term. Pay attention to the implementation of policy expectations and control risks [22]. - For crude oil, the geopolitical risk event has a short - term impact on the oil price and cannot reverse the overall trend. Focus on the OPEC+ meeting on August 3 [24][25]. - For LPG, the supply - demand structure remains loose, and the marginal improvement in chemical demand is difficult to reverse the overall pressure [25][26]. - For PX - PTA, the current fundamental driving force is limited. The short - term may see PTA production cuts to support prices, and do long the processing margin on dips [27][28]. - For MEG - bottle chips, maintain a wait - and - see attitude before the "anti - involution" policy is implemented. For bottle chips, operate the processing margin within the range [30][31]. - For methanol, wait for the macro - policy to land. Temporarily, take a wait - and - see attitude [31][32]. - For PP, the supply - demand pressure is not fundamentally alleviated, and the upward space is limited. Continue to pay attention to the downstream demand and macro - policy changes [33][34]. - For PE, the short - term pressure is large, but the downward space in the future is limited. Pay attention to the downstream demand and macro - policy [36][37]. - For PVC, the trading is difficult at present. Temporarily, take a wait - and - see attitude [38][39]. - For pure benzene, wait for the important meetings to end. Temporarily, take a wait - and - see attitude [40]. - For styrene, the short - term is affected by macro - emotions. After the important meetings, evaluate the impact of policies on the industry and then make decisions [42]. - For fuel oil, the short - term driving force is downward [43]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, take a wait - and - see attitude [44]. - For asphalt, the short - term is in an oscillating trend. The peak season is still worth looking forward to in the medium - and long - term [45][46]. - For urea, the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [47]. - For soda ash and glass, pay attention to the policy implementation. The supply of soda ash is strong and the demand is weak, while the glass is in a weak balance [47][49]. - For logs, the market is flat. Consider selling the lg2509 - p - 800 contract at an appropriate time [50]. - For pulp, the fundamental is weak. Technically, buy lightly on the support [51]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to the delivery logic and the policy implementation. The short - term focuses on the downstream demand improvement [52]. - For live pigs, sell on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [53]. - For oilseeds, allocate long positions in the far - month contracts [54][55]. - For corn and starch, they are expected to fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to the growth of new - crop corn [55][56]. - For cotton, the upside space is limited, but the tight domestic inventory before the new - cotton listing will support the price. Pay attention to the import quota policy and Sino - US trade agreement adjustment [57]. - For sugar, the recent pattern is strong domestically and weak overseas [59]. - For eggs, the medium - and long - term capacity is loose. Appropriate reverse spreads can be arranged [60]. - For apples, the price has a significant reverse effect [60]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations have made new progress. The suspended 24% of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures will be extended for 90 days. The US "reciprocal tariffs" face the risk of cancellation. The US JOLTS job openings in June were 7.437 million, less than expected [1][3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to maintain an upward trend. The small and medium - cap stock indexes are stronger, and the new Sino - US negotiation results may further drive the stock index up [4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Wait for the uncertainties to land. Temporarily, trading positions should be on the sidelines [5][6]. - **Container Shipping**: The opening quotes of Maersk continue to decline. The EC is expected to be slightly volatile and decline, but beware of the impact of event factors and capital [6][7]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Stop falling and oscillate. Focus on the Fed's FOMC. The medium - and long - term trend may be bullish, but the short - term London gold may fluctuate greatly. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [8][10]. - **Zinc**: The short - term trading logic remains unchanged, and it is appropriate to sell on rallies [13]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The short - term may continue to fluctuate, and the long - term trend is bearish [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are still disturbances, and pay attention to position risks [14][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The market is likely to remain volatile and slightly strong in the short term. For polysilicon, pay attention to the emotional fluctuations caused by the downstream component price transmission [16][17]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Wait for the arrival of the peak season and observe the macro and downstream buying sentiment [18]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market has upward momentum, and focus on the actual demand for steel and the implementation details of the "anti - involution" policy [19]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to be strong in the short term [20]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The upward trend remains unchanged in the short term. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and Sino - US trade negotiation progress, and beware of the callback risk caused by insufficient macro - policies [21][22]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: Beware of the risks of chasing high in the short term. Pay attention to the implementation of policy expectations and control risks [22]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical risk event has a short - term impact on the oil price and cannot reverse the overall trend. Focus on the OPEC+ meeting on August 3 [24][25]. - **LPG**: The supply - demand structure remains loose, and the marginal improvement in chemical demand is difficult to reverse the overall pressure [25][26]. - **PX - PTA**: The current fundamental driving force is limited. The short - term may see PTA production cuts to support prices, and do long the processing margin on dips [27][28]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude before the "anti - involution" policy is implemented. For bottle chips, operate the processing margin within the range [30][31]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the macro - policy to land. Temporarily, take a wait - and - see attitude [31][32]. - **PP**: The supply - demand pressure is not fundamentally alleviated, and the upward space is limited. Continue to pay attention to the downstream demand and macro - policy changes [33][34]. - **PE**: The short - term pressure is large, but the downward space in the future is limited. Pay attention to the downstream demand and macro - policy [36][37]. - **PVC**: The trading is difficult at present. Temporarily, take a wait - and - see attitude [38][39]. - **Pure Benzene**: Wait for the important meetings to end. Temporarily, take a wait - and - see attitude [40]. - **Styrene**: The short - term is affected by macro - emotions. After the important meetings, evaluate the impact of policies on the industry and then make decisions [42]. - **Fuel Oil**: The short - term driving force is downward [43]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Take a wait - and - see attitude [44]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term is in an oscillating trend. The peak season is still worth looking forward to in the medium - and long - term [45][46]. - **Urea**: The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [47]. - **Soda Ash & Glass**: Pay attention to the policy implementation. The supply of soda ash is strong and the demand is weak, while the glass is in a weak balance [47][49]. Others - **Logs**: The market is flat. Consider selling the lg2509 - p - 800 contract at an appropriate time [50]. - **Pulp**: The fundamental is weak. Technically, buy lightly on the support [51]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to the delivery logic and the policy implementation. The short - term focuses on the downstream demand improvement [52]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Sell on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [53]. - **Oilseeds**: Allocate long positions in the far - month contracts [54][55]. - **Corn & Starch**: They are expected to fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to the growth of new - crop corn [55][56]. - **Cotton**: The upside space is limited, but the tight domestic inventory before the new - cotton listing will support the price. Pay attention to the import quota policy and Sino - US trade agreement adjustment [57]. - **Sugar**: The recent pattern is strong domestically and weak overseas [59]. - **Eggs**: The medium - and long - term capacity is loose. Appropriate reverse spreads can be arranged [60]. - **Apples**: The price has a significant reverse effect [60].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term due to high - cost support from coking coal, despite the general downstream demand affected by weather and the suppression of speculative demand by the correction of coking coal and coke futures [1]. - Gold is still in a fluctuating and bearish trend but may rebound in the short term as the US tariff issue remains uncertain and the market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate meeting and non - farm data, while the US dollar index has limited upward momentum [1]. - The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is currently healthy. In the short term, the price is expected to follow the sector, but the upward space in the long term should be viewed with caution as the downstream demand is resilient but production may increase [3]. - The coke market is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term due to tight supply, cost support, and stable downstream demand [4]. - The bond market's logical main line is unclear. With the global economic recovery and the smooth progress of China - US talks, attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [4]. - The national pig price continues to decline. It is recommended to short opportunistically and for farmers to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm due to oversupply [5]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to the substitution effect of soybean meal, the weakening of US soybean prices, and the expected increase in new supply. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. - Polypropylene's PP 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips as the supply is abundant and the inventory is high [7]. - Silver is expected to remain in high - level fluctuations. The positive outlook for the global economy is fundamentally beneficial to silver, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate meeting and US employment data [7]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term. International factors support the price, but the domestic market has a loose supply and weak demand [8]. - Soda ash's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see as the production is increasing, the inventory is high, and the downstream demand is low - price - based [9]. - Crude oil should be treated as bullish at low levels as the US increases pressure on Russia and the market believes the trade war is weakening, and the inventory is not high [10][11]. - PTA should be short - term long at low levels as it follows crude oil, with a relatively balanced supply - demand situation and weakening cost support [11]. - Rubber should be treated as bullish at low levels as the weather is normal, there is a slight inventory reduction in China, and the downstream demand is improving [12]. - Methanol's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips as the domestic production is expected to increase, the downstream demand is stable, and the port may accumulate inventory [13]. Summary by Variety Metals - **Steel (Rebar)**: On July 29, domestic steel prices turned from falling to rising. The average price of rebar in major cities was 3441 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Short - term steel prices will fluctuate and strengthen [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The national 136 - enterprise sample start - up rate was 33.33%, up 0.88% week - on - week, and the daily output was 14,615 tons, up 2.31% week - on - week. The weekly demand of five major steel types was 20,065.7 tons, up 0.26% week - on - week. The inventory of 60 independent enterprises decreased by 2.22% [3]. - **Coke**: On July 29, mainstream steel mills raised the bid price for wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton. The coke market is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Affected by the US tariff issue and the Fed's interest - rate meeting, gold is in a fluctuating and bearish trend but may rebound in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: With the positive outlook for the global economy, silver is expected to remain in high - level fluctuations. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate meeting and US employment data [7]. Agricultural Products - **Pork**: On July 29, the national average pork price was 20.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The national pig price is falling, and it is recommended to short opportunistically [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In June 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed oil production, and rapeseed meal production increased month - on - month, while soybean - related data decreased. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia is expected to export more than 500 tons of palm oil to India in 2025. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [8]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene**: The mainstream price of East - China's drawn - grade polypropylene was 7117 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton. The PP 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash was 1366 yuan/ton, with a recent price rebound. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: PXCFR was reported at 852 US dollars/ton. The PTA supply is expected to be abundant, and it should be short - term long at low levels [11]. - **Methanol**: The price in the Jiangsu Taicang market was 2405 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: As of July 25, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.539 million barrels. Crude oil should be treated as bullish at low levels [10]. Others - **Rubber**: The raw material prices in Thailand and China are relatively stable. The European replacement tire market sales decreased year - on - year. Rubber should be treated as bullish at low levels [12].

国内市场综述 量价齐升 震荡上扬 周二（7 月 29 日）大盘量价齐升，震荡上扬。截至收 盘， 上证综指收于 3609.71 点，上涨 0.33%；深成指 收于 11289.41 点，上涨 0.64%；科创 50 上涨 1.45%； 创业板指上涨 1.86%，万得全 A 成交额共 18293 亿元， 较前一日有所上升。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 15 个行业上涨，其 中通信、钢铁及医药涨幅居前，而农林牧渔、银行及 家电则跌幅较大。概念方面，CRO、光模块 CPO 及西藏 振兴等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌 0.46% 周二美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌 0.46%，标普 500 指数跌 0.3%，纳指跌 0.38%。联合健康跌超 7%，波音 跌超 4%，领跌道指。万得美国科技七巨头指数跌 0.59%， 脸书跌超 2%，特斯拉、苹果跌超 1%。中概股多数下跌， 小马智行跌逾 8%，理想汽车跌逾 6%。 新闻精要 风险提示 1.稳增长力度不及预期； 2.地缘冲突升级。 分析师：彭竑/钟哲元 登记编码：S1490520090001/ S1490523030001 邮箱：pengh ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-07-30 限产预期再度扭转局势，⿊⾊集体飘红 继周⼀⼤跌后，昨⽇京津冀地区限产消息拉动钢材期价上⾏，随后夜 盘双焦增仓⼤涨，势头强劲。⽬前重要会议结果尚未有定论，资⾦进 出加剧盘⾯波动。产业⽅⾯，基本⾯变化不⼤延续健康态势，尽管终 端板块未看到明显转势的，但中游⼼态较好，出货意愿不强，现货价 格较为坚挺。近期⿊⾊波动加剧，后续宏观或仍有扰动，建议观望为 主，⻓期⻆度看随着交易重⼼回到基本⾯有⾼位回落⻛险。 ⿊⾊：限产预期再度扭转局势，⿊⾊集体飘红 继周一大跌后，昨日京津冀地区限产消息拉动钢材期价上行，随后夜 盘双焦增仓大涨，势头强劲。目前重要会议结果尚未有定论，资金进 出加剧盘面波动。产业方面，基本面变化不大延续健康态势，尽管终 端板块未看到明显转势的，但中游心态较好，出货意愿不强，现货价 格较为坚挺。近期黑色波动加剧，后续宏观或仍有扰动，建议观望为 主，长期角度看随着交易重心回到基本面有高位回落风险。 1、铁元素方面，从基本面来看，海外矿山发运环比回升，45港口到 港量下降，符合预期；需求端钢企盈利率增加明显，钢企铁 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views Copper - The copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectation and weakening demand" in non - US regions after the 232 investigation. The short - term copper price is affected by macro factors and fundamentals. The price is supported by domestic macro - policies and low inventory, but the demand is weak due to price rebound and the traditional off - season. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 78000 - 80000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price may rebound due to supply tightness in the ore end and low inventory of futures warrants, but the market will remain slightly oversupplied in the long run. It is recommended to be cautious about the squeeze - out risk and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium term. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation, weakening demand, and macro - disturbances, the short - term price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price in the range of 20200 - 21000 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is in a situation where the demand is suppressed by the off - season, and the price is restricted by weak demand but has limited downward space due to high scrap aluminum costs. The main contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 19600 - 20400 [4]. Zinc - The zinc market has a loose supply expectation in the long run, but the short - term price rebounds due to positive macro - policies. However, the off - season demand and supply pressure limit the upward space. The main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22000 - 23000 [8]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush. The price has fallen from a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes after Myanmar's resumption of production [12]. Nickel - The nickel market shows a weak and volatile trend. The macro - environment has no obvious improvement. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the supply of refined nickel is increasing. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract in the range of 120000 - 128000 [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market has a slow - moving spot demand. The price is mainly driven by policies and macro - emotions, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13200 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has increased supply - side uncertainties, and the trading focus has shifted to the ore end. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 79025 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 316 yuan/ton, up 25.16 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20620 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is 87.4 yuan/ton, up 1662 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remains unchanged at 20100 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22570 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1637 yuan/ton, up 73.72 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Tin**: The price of SMM 1 tin is 266100 yuan/ton, down 1.00% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 17714.03 yuan/ton, up 1360.71 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 122450 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1316 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remains unchanged at 12900 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73150 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous day. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) is 2690 yuan/ton, up 490 yuan/ton from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% from the previous month; the import volume was 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, down 0.19% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, down 3.22% [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, up 1.49% from the previous month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, up 6.50% from the previous month; the import volume was 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% [8]. - **Tin**: In June, the domestic tin ore import was 11911 tons, SMM refined tin production was 13810 tons, and the average smelting plant operating rate was 57.30% [12]. - **Nickel**: The Chinese refined nickel production in June was 31800 tons, down 10.04% from the previous month; the import volume was 19157 tons, up 116.90% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in June was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% from the previous month [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, up 8.34% from the previous month; the demand was 93836 tons, down 0.15% [19].

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on July 30, 2025. It is expected that stock index futures will show a relatively strong oscillation, while some commodity futures such as polycrystalline silicon, industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, coking coal, glass, soda ash, alumina, and crude oil futures will oscillate with an upward tendency. Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures are likely to oscillate weakly [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - Stock index futures (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) are expected to oscillate strongly on July 30, 2025, with specific resistance and support levels provided [2][19]. - Ten - year treasury bond futures T2509 and thirty - year treasury bond futures TL2509 are likely to oscillate weakly on July 30, 2025, and will test support levels [2][39]. - Gold (AU2510), silver (AG2510), copper (CU2509), and other commodity futures are expected to oscillate strongly on July 30, 2025, and will attack resistance levels [2][3]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - During the Sino - US economic and trade talks from July 28 - 29, the two sides agreed to extend the suspension of the US's 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days [7]. - The IMF significantly raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 4.8% and for 2026 to 4.2%. The global economic growth forecast for 2025 was raised to 3% [10]. - US economic data: In June, the US commodity trade deficit narrowed by 10.8% month - on - month; in May, the S&P/CS20 major city house price index and FHFA house price index had different changes; in June, JOLTS job openings were 743.7 million, less than expected [11]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - Most domestic commodity futures rose in night trading. Black series such as coking coal and coke, and non - metallic building materials such as glass and PVC increased [11]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the intraday flat - today trading fees for glass and soda ash futures contracts from the night trading session on July 30 [12]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock index futures**: On July 29, 2025, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 had different trends, with some continuing to rebound slightly and some facing slight downward pressure [14][15][16]. - **Treasury bond futures**: On July 29, 2025, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2344 billion yuan [37]. - **Other commodity futures**: Each commodity futures contract had different trends on July 29, 2025, and the report provided expected trends and resistance/support levels for July 30, 2025 [43][51][54] etc.