Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report Core Views - The pure benzene market has limited self - driving factors due to high port inventory and poor price transmission to downstream sectors, and its short - term trend fluctuates with the overall market sentiment. The styrene market also has a weak supply - demand outlook and increasing port inventory, with limited rebound space under the influence of market sentiment [24]. - The PX market is supported by domestic macro - sentiment and terminal restocking, but considering cost and inventory factors, short - term short - selling strategies can be considered. The PTA market may see short - term improvement but has a weak medium - term outlook. The ethylene glycol market is expected to be near balance in August [28][29]. - The methanol market has a strong inventory build - up expectation in August, and with low MTO profits and weak downstream demand, but the short - term influence of the macro - environment is significant, and MTO09 profit can be expanded at low levels [32]. - The caustic soda market may see stable prices in the short - term, and the PVC market has a supply - exceeding - demand situation, but both are strongly influenced by macro - sentiment [42]. - The polyolefin market is currently strengthened by policies and cost factors, but the real supply - demand situation is weak. In August, there is an increased inventory build - up pressure, and the PP can be considered for short - selling [46]. - The crude oil market is in a range - bound state due to the balance between supply - expansion expectations and macro - sentiment. Short - term trading can follow a band - trading strategy [49]. - The urea market is in a supply - exceeding - demand situation, with the futures market under pressure. It will remain in a range - bound state until there is a substantial improvement in demand [54]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Brent crude (September) was at $68.44/barrel, down $0.74 (-1.1%) from July 24; WTI crude (September) was at $65.16/barrel, down $0.87 (-1.3%); CFR Japan naphtha rose $5 (0.9%) to $581/ton; CFR China pure benzene increased $14 (1.9%) to $765/ton [21]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, styrene East - China spot was at 7580 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan (1.7%) from July 24; EB futures 2508 was at 7403 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan (1.0%); EB cash - flow (non - integrated) increased 34 yuan (19.0%) to 215 yuan/ton [22]. - **Downstream Cash - flows**: On July 25, phenol cash - flow was - 709 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan (8.4%) from July 24; aniline cash - flow decreased 104 yuan (-517.1%) to 84 yuan/ton [23]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 21, pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 17.10 million tons, up 0.70 million tons (4.3%) from July 14; the domestic pure benzene utilization rate was 76.6%, down 1.5% (-1.9%) from July 17 [24]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Brent crude (September) was at $68.44/barrel, down $0.74 (-1.1%) from July 24; CFR Japan naphtha rose $5 (0.9%) to $581/ton; CFR China PX increased $18 (2.1%) to $874/ton [28]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, PTA East - China spot price was 4895 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (1.7%) from July 24; TA futures 2509 was at 4936 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan (1.8%); PTA spot processing fee decreased 19 yuan (-9.5%) to 183 yuan/ton [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, MEG East - China spot price was 4582 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan (1.1%) from July 24; EG futures 2509 was at 4545 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan (1.3%); MEG import profit increased 7 yuan (-9.6%) to - 60 yuan/ton [28]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, MA2601 closed at 2587 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan (2.01%) from July 22; the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 438 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (2.94%) [32]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, methanol enterprise inventory was 33.983%, down 1.3% (-3.55%) from the previous value; the upstream domestic enterprise utilization rate was 70.37%, down 2.3% (-3.16%) from the previous value [32]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's converted - to - 100% price was 2593.8 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 24; East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 5160 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan (1.4%) [36]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of July 18, the caustic soda industry utilization rate was 86.3%, up 1.1% (1.3%) from July 11; the PVC total utilization rate was 75.0%, down 0.1% (-0.1%) [39]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, liquid caustic soda's East - China factory inventory was 21.3, up 2.6 (13.8%) from July 10; PVC's total social inventory was 41.1 million tons, up 1.8 million tons (4.7%) [42]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, L2601 closed at 7504 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan (0.91%) from July 24; the price of East - China LDPE was 9475 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.26%) [46]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, PE enterprise inventory was 49.3, up 5.47 (12.48%) from the previous value; the PE device utilization rate was 77.8%, down 1.67% (-2.10%) from the previous value [46]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 28, Brent was at $68.25/barrel, up $0.02 (0.16%) from July 25; WTI was at $65.25/barrel, up $0.09 (0.14%); the Brent - WTI spread was $3.30, up $0.02 (0.61%) [49]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: On July 28, NYM RBOB was 209.73 cents/gallon, up 0.03 cents (0.01%) from July 25; ICE Gasoil was $705.00/ton, down $10.25 (-1.43%) [49]. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spreads**: On July 28, the US gasoline cracking spread was $22.84/barrel, down $1.01 (-4.23%) from July 25; the European diesel cracking spread was $29.73/barrel, down $3.17 (-9.64%) [49]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, the 01 contract of urea futures closed at 1807, up 11 (0.61%) from July 24; the spread between the 01 contract and the 05 contract was - 15, down 7 (-87.50%) [53]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, the domestic urea daily output was 19.27, up 0.24 (1.26%) from July 24; the domestic urea plant - level inventory was 85.88, down 3.67 (-4.10%) from the previous week's value [53][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $750 billion worth of US energy products. This will lead to a short - term decline in the US dollar index [15]. - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, but risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [3]. - The 10 - department joint issuance of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption aims to boost agricultural product consumption through various measures. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in June has narrowed, and the new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth [17][18]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to increase. Steel prices have risen significantly due to the continuous increase in coking coal and coke prices and the relatively strong fundamentals of finished products, but there is a risk of overvaluation [5]. - Polysilicon is expected to correct in the short term, and it is advisable to consider short - selling lightly through options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. The EU hopes to continue discussions on steel and aluminum tariffs with the US. The applicable tariff will be the higher of the "most - favored - nation tariff" or 15%. The short - term market risk preference will moderately recover, and the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will decline in the short term [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - 10 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption" to promote agricultural product consumption through various measures. In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the decline has narrowed. The new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which may set an example for upcoming China - US tariffs. A Politburo meeting will be held this week, and attention should be paid to its statements on the economic work in the second half of the year [17][18][19]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate stock indexes evenly [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but there are still differences in key industry tariffs. The US durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, better than the expected - 10.7%. The core data excluding Boeing orders performed well. The US - EU tariff negotiation has accelerated, and the risk of further deterioration of the tariff level has decreased, supporting market risk preference [21][22]. - Investment advice: The trade negotiation is moving in a positive direction, and it will still fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 601.8 billion yuan. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, and the funds are expected to become looser after the end of the month. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [23]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to cautiously bet on the opportunity of oversold rebound next week. Do not be bearish in the long term, but the market will be volatile in Q3, and it may be too early for allocation buyers to go long at present [24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market is running strongly. The recent futures price increase is mainly due to macro - policies. The National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal mine production in key coal - producing provinces, but the actual impact of checking over - production may be limited. The price may return to the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal has recovered partially this week, and the coke price has increased for the third time, with some steel mills accepting the increase [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market sentiment for coking coal is still strong, but the risk is high as the price rises significantly. Pay attention to position management [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 30th week was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%. It is expected to reach 2.3726 million tons and 66.69% in the 31st week. From July 1 - 25, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.23% month - on - month. The production of Malaysian palm oil in July is expected to increase, and the inventory will increase significantly. China may export 100,000 - 120,000 tons of soybean oil to India [28][29]. - Investment advice: The data from Malaysia is bearish for palm oil. It is not recommended to short unilaterally. Consider buying put options or waiting for opportunities to go long at low prices. For international soybean oil, focus on US weather and bio - fuel policies. For domestic soybean oil, if exports to India increase, it will support prices [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The international sugar price has fluctuated greatly. The expected increase in production in Brazil and India and the rumor of India's export in the 2025/26 season have put pressure on the price. India's sugar export may be unfeasible at current international prices. The sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have cleared their warehouses, and the spot price in Guangxi has remained stable with a narrow - range shock. The sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil has decreased in June [31][33][34]. - Investment advice: The international sugar market is under pressure from supply. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate mainly. Pay attention to the resistance level of 5900 yuan [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first half of 2025, China's cotton product exports increased under pressure. As of mid - July, the pre - sale progress of Brazilian cotton in 2025 was 65%. As of July 17, the weekly net signing of US cotton in the 25/26 season was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%. The ICE cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern in the short term [36][37][39]. - Investment advice: The lack of news about increased import quotas in China, tight old - cotton inventory, and high operating rates in Xinjiang spinning mills will support cotton prices in the short term. However, the demand from inland spinning mills is weakening, and the increase in warehouse receipts and the expectation of increased production in the 25/26 season may limit the upward trend of cotton prices [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina has lowered the export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has remained high. China has stopped purchasing US soybeans since the end of May, and the pre - sale of US new - crop soybeans is significantly lower than the normal level in previous years [41][42]. - Investment advice: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Focus on the development of the China - US trade war. Soybean meal inventory will continue to accumulate, and the spot basis will remain weak [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Most coal mines in Ordos maintained normal production on July 23, and the coal price was stable with a slight increase. The implementation of the over - production policy and high summer temperatures are expected to keep the coal price strong. The power plant's inventory has decreased slightly, and the coal price is expected to return to around the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan [43][44]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain strong, and it is expected to return to around 670 yuan, the long - term agreement price [44]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore production and sales of Mount Gibson in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. Affected by coking coal and coke, the iron ore price has fluctuated strongly, but it has encountered resistance after breaking through $105. The long - term increase in the price center of coking coal and coke will suppress the upside potential of iron ore [45]. - Investment advice: Observe the follow - up of the spot market after the price pull - back. The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to reduce the position [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The fifth blast furnace of Vietnam's Hoa Phat Group's Dung Quat Steel Complex has been put into operation, increasing the annual production capacity by 5.6 million tons. The total new - signed contract value of the top seven construction central enterprises in the first six months exceeded 5.9 trillion yuan. South Korea will impose temporary anti - dumping duties on hot - rolled steel plates imported from China and Japan. Steel prices have risen significantly, but there is a risk of overvaluation [47][49][50]. - Investment advice: Steel prices will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously [51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn starch sugar is average, and the operating rate has decreased. The consumption of corn and corn starch has decreased this week [52]. - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. This is not favorable for the rice - flour price difference [53][54]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 2.5 percentage points year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy in the breeding industry may reduce the corn demand in the new year [55]. - Investment advice: The stalemate in the spot market may continue until the new corn is on the market. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. Hold the short positions of new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures. The price of lithium carbonate has increased, and there are rumors about production cuts in some areas. The limit - trading measure is expected to stabilize the market [56][57]. - Investment advice: Before the production cuts are confirmed, there is no upward momentum for the price. Pay attention to the downstream procurement. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory and reverse arbitrage [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The EU has started monitoring the trade of scrap copper and aluminum. Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine. Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary has started its new smelter [59][60][61]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, be cautious about the repeated macro - expectations. The copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit, daily limit, margin, and handling fees for industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, but the actual transaction has not changed much. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in July and August, with a monthly surplus of 100,000 - 200,000 tons [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: The delivery price of polysilicon sets a lower limit for the futures price. However, due to the difficulty of the spot price to keep up with the futures price increase, the short - term price is expected to correct. Consider short - selling lightly through options and look for opportunities to go long after the correction [66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production and operating rate of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, the Northwest, Yunnan, and Sichuan have shown different trends. The social inventory has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased. The supply is expected to increase with the resumption of production, and the supply - demand gap will narrow in August [67][68][69]. - Investment advice: After the price increase, the basis of industrial silicon has weakened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options [69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Danantara is considering acquiring the GNI smelter in Indonesia. The nickel price has been strong recently but fell on Friday night. There are different statements about Indonesia's nickel export policy. The price of Philippine nickel ore has decreased, and the price of nickel iron has increased, but the steel mills' purchasing intention is not strong [70][71]. - Investment advice: The nickel price is closely related to macro - sentiment. It is recommended to use options for hedging in unilateral trading. Holders can sell for hedging at high prices [72]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - From January to June 2025, the number of electric bicycles recycled and replaced was 8.465 million each. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1. The overseas macro - situation has limited fluctuations. The supply of primary lead is tight, and the production of secondary lead has increased slightly. The demand from end - users has not improved significantly, but the lead social inventory may turn around [73][74][75]. - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices and manage the position well. For arbitrage, it is recommended to observe temporarily [76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The port inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased by 860,000 tons compared with last week. The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc has turned negative, but the注销仓单 is still high. The zinc smelting profit may improve in August, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand from primary processing industries is differentiated, and the social inventory has increased significantly [77][78]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the risk is high, and it is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of medium - term calendar spread positive arbitrage. It is recommended to observe in terms of domestic - foreign trading [79]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 25, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 71.34 euros/ton, a 0.65% increase from the previous day and a 2.07% increase from last week. The investment funds reduced their net long positions by 100,000 tons last week. The carbon price is expected to be volatile in the short term [80]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will be volatile in the short term [81]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle - East oil price has strengthened relative to Brent. The increase in the Middle - East oil export volume is limited. The strong diesel crack spread and EU sanctions on Russia support the Middle - East oil price [82][83]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain volatile. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and market risk preference [84]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was slightly adjusted. The supply has increased, and the demand is average. The caustic soda futures price has increased due to the overall positive sentiment in the commodity market, but the increase is limited [85][86]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda valuation is not low, and the speculative demand is difficult to stimulate, resulting in a small increase [86]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is generally stable, with individual prices increasing slightly. The futures price has continued to rise, but the downstream paper mills' follow - up is not strong, and high - price transactions are difficult [87]. - Investment advice: Due to the "anti - involution" policy, low - valued pulp may be targeted by funds. Investors should pay attention to the risks [88]. 3.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of anti - involution narratives and expectations of incremental policies, the overall stock and commodity markets remain strong, while long - term bonds are under pressure. The market is affected by factors such as trade negotiations, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small amount of short positions in put options on MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, and reduce positions, maintaining a moderately bullish stance. On the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term and pay attention to the capital situation and incremental policies [2]. Treasury Bonds - The risk assets suppress long - term bonds. With the tightening of the capital market, the short - selling sentiment in the bond futures market has increased, and the redemption pressure on bond funds may start to rise, which still suppresses the bond market. In terms of the curve strategy, it is possible to continue to bet on the steepening [2]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by the weakening of the US dollar's credit and its commodity attributes, and it oscillates above the 60 - day moving average. Silver has further upside potential due to the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflows, and long positions can be held. Gold continues to correct as the European Central Bank pauses rate cuts for the first time in a year and the risk - aversion sentiment eases [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract rebounds slightly. With the increasing expectation of anti - involution, the price continues to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - The iron ore has insufficient upward momentum as the molten iron output slightly decreases and the port inventory slightly increases. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The steel price continues to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be held [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - The expectation of production - restriction documents is rising, the resumption of coal mines is lagging, the spot market is strong, and the transaction is picking up. The third round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has started, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to take profits on long positions step by step at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term sentiment fades, and high copper prices suppress demand. - Aluminum: The market sentiment is bullish, and the aluminum price oscillates at a high level, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. - Other non - ferrous metals also have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on factors such as macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply - demand [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The macro - sentiment eases, and the demand expectation recovers, pushing up the oil price. - Other energy and chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions according to factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The document on air pollution prevention boosts market sentiment, and the spot transaction is strong. - Rubber: The macro - sentiment is positive, and supply disruptions due to rainy weather in overseas production areas and conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia drive up the rubber price. - Other special commodities also have corresponding market trends and trading suggestions [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures oscillate and rise to a new high, but attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback due to the increase in warehouse receipts. - Recycled lithium: The market sentiment is boosted, but the fundamental change is not significant. It is recommended to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, with Brent in the range of 68 - 70 USD/barrel. Medium - term outlook is bearish due to expected oversupply after the 4th quarter [2]. - Asphalt: The unilateral price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the cracking spread is expected to be strong. The BU main contract is expected to trade between 3500 - 3650 [5]. - LPG: The PG price is expected to be weak due to sufficient supply and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [9]. - Natural gas: US natural gas prices are expected to rise, while European natural gas prices are expected to oscillate [9][10]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has some demand support, but the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - PX: Expected to follow the cost side and oscillate in the short term [13]. - PTA: Expected to oscillate and consolidate, with attention to device changes [14]. - Ethylene glycol: Supply is gradually returning, putting pressure on prices, and expected to oscillate and consolidate [17]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, and it is expected to oscillate and consolidate [19]. - PET bottle chips: Expected to follow the raw material side and oscillate and consolidate [23]. - Styrene: Expected to oscillate in the short term due to supply and demand changes [27]. - PVC: In the second half of the year, it is in a pattern of oversupply, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [30]. - Caustic soda: Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [30]. - Plastic and PP: Fundamental is weak, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [32]. - Glass: Short - term focus on production and sales, medium - term focus on cost reduction and plant cold - repair [35]. - Soda ash: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with attention to policy trends [38]. - Methanol: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with attention to the evolution of the Middle East situation [39]. - Urea: Expected to be weak in the short term, with attention to export policies [43]. - Corrugated paper: Overall in a weak pattern, with some price increases expected [44]. - Offset paper: In a situation of weak supply and demand, prices are expected to be stable [45]. - Logs: It is recommended to wait and see for the near - month contract, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [48]. - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: Wait and see for the RU and NR main contracts; hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread [52]. - Butadiene rubber: Try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically [55]. - Pulp: Try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract [57]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2508 closed at 66.38 USD/barrel, down 0.14 USD/barrel (- 0.21%); Brent2509 closed at 68.52 USD/barrel, down 0.19 USD/barrel (- 0.28%); SC main contract 2509 closed at 507 CNY/barrel [1]. - Related News: Trump's attitude towards Powell affected the market; the Fed's economic report indicated cost pressure; EIA data showed changes in US oil inventories and production [1]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - narrow - range oscillation; arbitrage - gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; options - wait and see [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 closed at 3612 points (- 0.14%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3433 points (- 0.17%) at night [3]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, affected by factors such as demand and supply [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; arbitrage - asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; options - wait and see [6]. LPG - Market Review: PG2508 closed at 4072 (- 0.88%) at night; PG2509 closed at 3988 (- 0.77%) at night [6]. - Related News: Prices in different regions had different trends [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - weak operation [9]. Natural Gas - Market Review: TTF closed at 34.809 (+ 1.06%), HH closed at 3.551 (+ 0.79%), JKM closed at 12.475 (+ 1.42%) [9]. - Related News: US natural gas inventory increased, supply and demand changed [9]. - Trading Strategy: HH unilateral - buy on dips; TTF unilateral - oscillate [10]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 closed at 2855 (- 0.56%) at night; LU09 closed at 3568 (- 2.22%) at night [10]. - Related News: Changes in fuel oil inventories and trading volume [11]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see; arbitrage - wait and see [12]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6716 (+ 28/+ 0.42%), and 6684 (- 32/- 0.48%) at night [12]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [13]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [13]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4706 (+ 10/+ 0.21%), and 4696 (- 10/- 0.21%) at night [13]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [14]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [16]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4351 (+ 29+0.67%), and 4349 (- 2/- 0.05%) at night [16]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales, equipment shutdown [16]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [18]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2508 main contract closed at 6356 (- 12/- 0.19%) during the day, and 6338 (- 18/- 0.28%) at night [19]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [19]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [21]. PET Bottle Chips - Market Review: PR2509 main contract closed at 5886 (+ 16/+ 0.27%), and 5876 (- 10/- 0.17%) at night [20]. - Related News: Stable factory quotes, average market transactions [23]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [24]. Styrene - Market Review: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6166 (+ 22/+ 0.36%) during the day, and 6151 (- 15/- 0.24%) at night; EB2508 main contract closed at 7343 (+ 3/+ 0.04%) during the day, and 7304 (- 39/- 0.53%) at night [24]. - Related News: Changes in port inventories, equipment shutdown [24]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC prices declined, and caustic soda prices were stable [27][30]. - Related News: Changes in PVC and caustic soda inventories, new device production expectations [30]. - Trading Strategy: PVC - bearish in the medium and short term; caustic soda - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [31]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: LLDPE prices declined in some regions, and PP prices had slight changes [32]. - Related News: Changes in maintenance ratios [32]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - bearish in the medium and short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [33]. Glass - Market Review: Glass futures 09 contract closed at 1070 CNY/ton (- 1/- 0.09%), and 1078 CNY/ton (+ 8/+ 0.75%) at night [34]. - Related News: Market conditions in different regions, changes in deep - processing orders [34]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - pay attention to logical conversion; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [36]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1208 CNY/ton (- 6/- 0.5%), and 1215 CNY/ton (+ 7/+ 0.6%) at night [37]. - Related News: Equipment operation, price trends [38]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - prices are expected to be strong, pay attention to policy trends; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [38]. Methanol - Market Review: Methanol futures closed at 2362 (- 14/- 0.59%) at night [39]. - Related News: Changes in production enterprise signing volume [39]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [40]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures oscillated and closed at 1733 (+ 2/+ 0.12%) [40]. - Related News: Changes in production and inventory, new Indian tender prices [43]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - sell call options on rebounds [44]. Corrugated Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable with some increases, cost and demand situations [44]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Offset Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable, supply and demand situations [45]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Logs - Related News: Price changes, project funds, and market conditions [47]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for the near - month contract; arbitrage - pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; options - wait and see [49]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Market Review: RU main 09 contract closed at 14525 (+ 25/+ 0.17%); NR main 09 contract closed at 12485 (- 5/- 0.04%) [49]. - Related News: Changes in export and consumption data [51]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for RU and NR main contracts; arbitrage - hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread; options - wait and see [52]. Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: BR main 09 contract closed at 11405 (- 45/- 0.39%) [53]. - Related News: Changes in production and shipping index [55]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [55]. Pulp - Market Review: SP main 09 contract closed at 5242, unchanged from the previous day [55]. - Related News: New product launch by Starbucks [56]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [57].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].

Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center continues to rise. However, cautions are needed when testing key positions. The bullish spread strategy can be adopted for stock index futures. For bonds, wait for adjustment and stabilization before increasing positions. Gold and silver have different trends, and different trading strategies are recommended. For various industrial products and agricultural products, different trading suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions [2] Summary by Categories Financial - Stock index: The large - financial sector strongly pushes up the stock index, which hits a new high again. Consider buying low - strike put options and then selling high - strike put options to implement the bullish spread strategy [2] - Bond: The bond market lacks drivers, and the strong performance of the equity market suppresses the bond market. However, the fundamentals and capital still support the bond market. In the short - term, there may be opportunities to increase positions after adjustment and stabilization. The curve strategy recommends focusing on steepening in the medium - term [2] Metals - Precious metals: Gold price fluctuates around $3300 (765 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver price is approaching the annual high, and there is still room for further increase if it stabilizes at $37 (9000 yuan) in the short - term [2] - Industrial metals: For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the sentiment has improved. For coking coal, coke, copper, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum, zinc, etc., different trading suggestions are given according to their market conditions such as price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels [2][3] Energy and Chemicals - Energy: Crude oil prices have回调 due to tariff contradictions impacting demand. It is not recommended to chase high in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - Chemicals: For urea, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc., trading suggestions are given based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [2] Agricultural Products - For soybeans, corn, soy oil, white sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, dates, peanuts, and other agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market news [2] Special Commodities - Glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere and macro - sentiment respectively, and corresponding trading suggestions are given. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see [2] New Energy - For polysilicon and lithium carbonate, their price trends are described, and the trading suggestion is to wait and see [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term oil price is expected to remain firm and maintain a volatile pattern, but it is bearish in the medium term. The asphalt price may remain relatively low, the liquefied gas price is expected to be weak, the natural gas price in the US is expected to rise while that in Europe is under pressure. For various chemical products, most are expected to show a pattern of shock, with some being bearish or bullish in the short - term [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. - For forest products and paper products, the market is generally in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices showing different trends of stability, decline or shock [38][39][40][41][42]. - For rubber products, the market is affected by multiple factors, and different types of rubber have different investment suggestions, mainly focusing on waiting and seeing [44][45][46][47][48]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $68.33, up $0.40/barrel, a 0.59% increase; Brent2509 contract settled at $70.15, up $0.57/barrel, an 0.82% increase. SC2508 contract rose 8.6 to 509.9 yuan/barrel, and 6.4 to 516.3 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Trump expanded the global trade war, announcing a 50% tariff on imported copper and threatening semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs. Japan and South Korea will negotiate with the US to ease the impact of tariff hikes. EIA raised the global oil production growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The near - term spread of crude oil is strong, Saudi Arabia raised the official price, and the refining profit has recovered. The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - term [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term range - bound thinking, medium - term bearish; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; wait and see for options [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3629 points (+1.11%) at night, BU2512 closed at 3439 points (+1.48%) at night. The spot price in Shandong was 3580 - 4070 yuan/ton, 3670 - 3850 yuan/ton in East China, and 3610 - 3730 yuan/ton in South China [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable. Rainy season affected demand, and the supply was sufficient [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost side is volatile. The supply - demand is weak in the near - term, and the inventory is low year - on - year. The supply elasticity of asphalt from local refineries has increased. The asphalt price is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, and the cracking spread is expected to remain high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level shock; the asphalt - crude oil spread is stable; wait and see for options [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4170 (-0.33%) at night, PG2509 closed at 4073 (-0.12%) at night. The spot price in South China, East China, and Shandong showed different trends [5]. - **Related News**: The price in South China declined, that in Shandong was stable with partial small drops, and that in East China generally declined [5][6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply decreased, the demand was weak in both the combustion and chemical fields, and the inventory decreased. The fundamentals of liquefied gas are loose, and the price is expected to be weak [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak operation [7]. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas production decreased, demand was strong, and LNG exports increased, so the price is expected to rise. European natural gas prices fell due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH on dips; shock for TTF [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 2992 (+0.84%) at night, LU09 closed at 3709 (+1.28%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market showed different spreads [8]. - **Related News**: India HPCL offered HSFO, there were attacks in the Red Sea, a US refinery had problems, and there were transactions in the Singapore spot window [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur spot discounts fell, supply may increase but is affected by geopolitical factors, and demand has seasonal support. Low - sulfur supply increased and demand had no specific driver [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see; pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot in the near - term and consider going long on FU91 positive spreads on dips [10]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6696 (+0.18%) during the day and 6718 (+0.33%) at night. The spot price rose, and PXN decreased [11]. - **Related News**: A refinery's crude distillation unit caught fire, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The social inventory of PX is low, supply is tight, and Asian PX operating rates declined. Downstream demand will increase, and PX is expected to follow the cost side in the short - term [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [11]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4710 (0%) during the day and 4720 (+0.21%) at night. The spot price and basis were reported [11][12]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and a PTA device in South China returned to normal operation [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The basis of PTA declined, some devices were under maintenance or had load changes, downstream demand was weak, and inventory accumulation was expected [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [13]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4267 (-0.28%) during the day and 4270 (+0.07%) at night. The spot price and basis were reported [13]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and some ethylene glycol devices restarted [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of some domestic and foreign devices increased, inventory accumulation is expected in August - September, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 closed at 6518 (0%) during the day and 6528 (+0.15%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable [15][16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some short - fiber devices reduced production or were under maintenance, the processing margin expanded, and the processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [16][17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not clearly mentioned in the text, but similar to other products, wait - and - see for arbitrage and options can be inferred [17]. PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2509 closed at 5866 (-0.10%) during the day and 5876 (+0.17%) at night. The spot market trading was average [17]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle chips was partially lowered [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee of bottle chips strengthened, some devices reduced production or stopped, and the price is expected to follow the raw material side in a shock [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 5931 during the day and 5989 (+0.98%) at night. EB2508 closed at 7276 (-0.83%) during the day and 7297 (+0.29%) at night. The spot price of pure benzene decreased, and that of styrene had different ranges [20]. - **Related News**: The inventory of styrene and pure benzene in ports increased, a new styrene device was planned to be tested, and a refinery's device had problems [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of pure benzene is abundant, and demand is expected to increase. The supply of styrene will increase, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The price of styrene is under pressure [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; long pure benzene and short styrene for arbitrage; wait and see for options [22]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The price of LLDPE in most regions declined, and the price of PP in different regions also showed a downward trend [23]. - **Related News**: The maintenance ratio of PE remained unchanged, and that of PP increased slightly [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is large capacity - putting pressure in the third quarter, the terminal demand is weak, and the strategy is to short on rallies [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bearish in the short - and medium - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was in a narrow - range adjustment, and the caustic soda spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu increased [24][25]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was stable, and the price of caustic soda in Jinling had different changes [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC has new capacity - putting pressure, demand is weak, and exports face risks, so the price is under pressure. Caustic soda has a short - term bullish expectation but faces capacity - putting pressure in July - August [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Caustic soda: short - term shock bullish; PVC: short on rallies; wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures price of soda ash decreased, and the spot price was in a weak shock [29]. - **Related News**: The inventory of soda ash increased, the photovoltaic industry had an impact, and the market was generally weak [29][30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of soda ash reached the extreme and then declined, demand was weak, inventory accumulated, and the price is expected to be weak but not likely to fall sharply [30][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak fundamentals, price is weak but not likely to fall sharply; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [31]. Glass - **Market Review**: The futures price of glass decreased in a shock, and the spot price in different regions showed different trends [31][32]. - **Related News**: The inventory of soda ash increased, and the sales in different regions of glass were different [31][32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass market is in a shock decline, the cost of soda ash decreases, demand has no improvement, and the price is expected to be weak but not likely to fall sharply [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - logic continues, glass is in a weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures price of methanol declined, and the spot price in different regions showed different levels [33][34]. - **Related News**: The signing volume of methanol in Northwest China decreased [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international supply of methanol increases, domestic supply is loose, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: The futures price of urea increased, and the spot price in different regions increased slightly [36]. - **Related News**: An Indian urea tender had results [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of urea decreased slightly, demand is weak in the domestic market, and the inventory is still high. The Indian tender price is high, which may boost the market in the short - term, but be cautious about chasing high [36][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term bullish; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [38]. Log - **Related News**: The price of some logs in Jiangsu decreased, the shipping volume from New Zealand to China changed, and the freight rate had an upward and downward trend [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand is still weak, and the price support and trading volume need to be considered. The difference in ruler size supports the price, and future交割 details need to be concerned [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the near - month contract; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; wait and see for options [40]. Double - Coated Paper - **Related News**: The trading atmosphere of double - coated paper was average, the price was stable, and the supply and demand were both weak [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is stable, demand is limited, and the cost of wood pulp decreases, which eases the cost pressure on paper mills [40]. Corrugated Paper - **Related News**: The price of corrugated and box - board paper was generally stable with some weakness, the price of waste yellow - board paper increased, and the supply and demand of raw materials had different situations [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and the profit is expected to be slightly repaired [41]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The futures price of pulp was in a weak shock, and the spot price of different types of pulp had different trends [42]. - **Related News**: A large - scale investment project in the pulp and paper industry was planned [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The economic indicators in different regions are favorable, but the US dollar index is unfavorable to the pulp price [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the SP09 contract; hold the 2*SP2509 - NR2509 spread and raise the stop - loss [44]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Numbered Rubber - **Market Review**: The price of RU, NR, and BR increased, and the spot price of different types of rubber showed different levels [44][45][47]. - **Related News**: The US tire import volume increased in the first five months of 2025 [45][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The export of Chinese tires and the US auto order data are favorable to the RU price [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the RU09 and NR09 contracts; hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread and raise the stop - loss; wait and see for options [46]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The price of BR increased, and the spot price in different regions had different levels [47]. - **Related News**: The US tire import volume increased in the first five months of 2025 [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in crude oil prices is unfavorable to the BR - RU spread, and the US rubber and plastic product import data is slightly favorable to the BR price [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the BR09 contract; consider the BR2509 - NR2509 spread and set a stop - loss; wait and see for the BR2509 call option [48][49].

1. Operation Suggestions - Entering a new round of US trade policy negotiation window, the index has broken through the upper limit of the short - term oscillation range and the central value continues to rise. Consider buying low - strike put options and selling high - strike put options to implement a bullish spread strategy. The short - term fluctuation range of T2509 may be between 108.8 - 109.2. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. For the curve strategy, continue to recommend steepening [2]. 2. Financial Sector 2.1 Treasury Bonds - With the bottoming out of capital interest rates and the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures may show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. The curve strategy still recommends steepening [3]. 2.2 Precious Metals - The market has digested part of the impact of US tariffs. As the US dollar strengthens, gold prices have declined. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate around $3300 (765 yuan). Sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver prices are affected by gold and non - ferrous industrial products and fluctuate repeatedly, oscillating in the range of $36 - 37 in the short term [3]. 2.3 Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC contract has moved up on the disk. Be cautiously bullish on the EC08 main contract [3]. 3. Black Sector 3.1 Steel - The demand and inventory of industrial steel products have deteriorated. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being. For arbitrage, consider the strategy of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - The sentiment in the black sector has improved, and anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. Go long on dips, with the fluctuation range referring to 700 - 750 [3]. 3.3 Coking Coal - The auction non - transaction rate in the market has decreased, the expectation of coal mine resumption has strengthened, the spot market is running strongly, trading has warmed up, and coal mine shipments have improved. Go long on dips [3]. 3.4 Coke - The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, and the coking profit has declined, with the price approaching the阶段性 bottom. Go long on dips [3]. 4. Non - Ferrous Sector 4.1 Copper - The logic of LME soft squeeze has weakened. Pay attention to the rhythm of US tariff policies. The main contract reference range is 78500 - 80000 [3]. 4.2 Alumina - The spot market has tightened temporarily, and the disk has strongly broken through the 3100 pressure level. The main contract reference range is 2850 - 3150 [3]. 4.3 Aluminum - The spot discount has widened, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The main contract reference range is 19800 - 20800 [3]. 4.4 Aluminum Alloy - The disk fluctuates with aluminum prices, and the fundamentals remain weak in the off - season. The main contract reference range is 19200 - 20000 [3]. 4.5 Zinc - Concerns about tariffs have resurfaced, and the demand outlook remains weak. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [3]. 4.6 Tin - There are significant short - term macro disturbances. Pay attention to changes in US tariff policies. Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 4.7 Stainless Steel - There are still macro risks, and the disk has slightly declined. The industrial overcapacity still restricts the market. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [3]. 4.8 Nickel - The disk has been slightly boosted, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. 5. Energy and Chemical Sector 5.1 Crude Oil - The tariff issue has eased, and positive factors have driven the disk up. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view. The resistance levels for WTI are [68, 69], for Brent are [70, 71], and for SC are [510, 520] [3]. 5.2 Urea - There is still some order support on the demand side. Pay attention to the progress of export - related news in the future. Enter the market cautiously on dips in the short term. If the actual demand fails to meet expectations, exit the market. The support level for the main contract is adjusted to 1690 - 1700 [3]. 5.3 PX - Oil prices are strong, but the supply - demand margin has weakened. The short - term driving force for PX is limited. PX09 will operate in the range of 6500 - 6900 in the short term. Pay attention to the support at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.4 PTA - The supply - demand outlook has weakened, but the cost side is strong. PTA will maintain an oscillation. In the short term, it will oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900. Short at the upper end of the range. Implement a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA9 - 1 [3]. 5.5 Short - Fiber - With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing margin has improved. The unilateral strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA. Expand the processing margin at the low level of the PF disk. Pay attention to the pressure around 1100 for the disk processing margin and the implementation of future production cuts [3]. 5.6 Bottle Chip - It is the peak demand season, production cuts of bottle chips have increased, the processing margin has recovered, and PR fluctuates with costs. The processing margin of the PR main disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Look for opportunities to expand at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.7 Ethanol - The supply - demand situation is gradually turning to be loose, and the short - term demand is weak. It is expected that MEG will face pressure above. Pay attention to the pressure around 4400 for EG09 in the short term. Sell call options at high levels. Implement a reverse spread strategy for EG9 - 1 at high levels [3]. 5.8 Caustic Soda - There has been a macro - stimulated rebound. Pay attention to whether the alumina purchase price will follow. With the strong short - term macro sentiment, it is expected to rebound at low levels, but the momentum depends on the follow - up of the spot market [3]. 5.9 PVC - Driven by the expectation of "supply - side optimization", still pay attention to the anti - dumping duty ruling in July. Be cautiously optimistic about the rebound space of near - month contracts [3]. 5.10 Pure Benzene - The supply - demand margin has improved, but the driving force for near - month contracts is limited due to high inventory. Be cautiously bearish on far - month contracts. Since the first - line contract BZ2603 of pure benzene is far away in time, the driving force is limited under the supply - demand game. Be cautiously bearish or wait and see for unilateral operations. Implement a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [3]. 5.11 Styrene - The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the cost support is limited. Styrene may gradually face pressure. It is recommended to sell call options with a strike price above 7500 for EB08 [3]. 5.12 Synthetic Rubber - Due to an unexpected device incident, butadiene has rebounded, boosting the rise of BR. Pay attention to the pressure around 11500 for BR2508 in the short term [3]. 5.13 LLDPE - Trading has weakened, and prices have slightly declined. It will oscillate in the short term [3]. 5.14 PP - Both supply and demand are weak, and the cost - side support has weakened. Be cautiously bearish. Enter short positions at 7250 - 7300 [3]. 5.15 Methanol - The basis has rapidly weakened. Pay attention to Iranian shipments. Conduct range - bound operations between 2200 - 2500 [3]. 6. Agricultural Sector 6.1 Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Trade with a short - bias on rebounds [3]. 6.2 Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. Hold short positions on rallies in the short term [3]. 6.3 Eggs - The spot market remains weak. Be bearish in the long - term [3]. 6.4 Apples - Trading is light, and prices have weakened. The main contract will operate around 7700 [3]. 6.5 Jujubes - Market prices have fluctuated slightly. The main contract will operate around 10500 [3]. 6.6 Peanuts - Market prices have oscillated steadily. The main contract will operate around 8100 [3]. 6.7 Soda Ash - Inventory accumulation continues, and the oversupply pattern is prominent. Adopt a short - on - rebound strategy [3]. 7. Special Commodity Sector 7.1 Glass - The macro atmosphere has warmed up, and the disk has generally performed strongly. Wait and see in the short term [3]. 7.2 Rubber - There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Hold short positions above 14000 [3]. 7.3 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price has rebounded with polysilicon. Wait and see [3]. 8. New Energy Sector 8.1 Polysilicon - The spot quotation of polysilicon has been raised, and multiple futures contracts have reached the daily limit. Wait and see [3]. 8.2 Lithium Carbonate - The disk is running strongly, but there are increasing macro risks and fundamental pressure. The main contract reference range is 60,000 - 65,000 [3]. 9. Stock Index - The market trading sentiment is becoming more optimistic, and the broader market is approaching a new high [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different products showing trends such as rising, falling, and fluctuating [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: Continued to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Traded sideways, with a trend strength of 0 [2][14]. - **Lead**: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Driven by the macro - environment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][22]. - **Nickel**: Upside potential was limited, and prices were under pressure at low levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories were slightly digested, and prices recovered but with limited elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices were under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][30][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to policy changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations were volatile, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][37]. - **Rebar**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][39][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][40][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was brewing, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Coking Coal**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized with fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. - **Log**: The main contract switched, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][56][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Cost support was weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][65]. - **PTA**: Close the long - PX short - PTA position, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][66]. - **MEG**: Traded in a single - sided oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59][66]. - **Rubber**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [2][67]. Others - **Fuel Oil**: Adjusted narrowly at night, with low - level fluctuations in the market [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Strong in the short - term, with the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market oscillating at a high level [4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract oscillated and sorted; hold a light short position in the 10 contract [4]. - **Short - Fiber**: Traded weakly with oscillations, and demand pressure gradually emerged [4]. - **Bottle Chip**: Traded weakly with oscillations, long PR short PF [4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Fundamental contradictions were not obvious, and prices were greatly affected by international oil prices [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: There was insufficient speculation on U.S. soybean weather, lacking driving forces [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market was closed overnight, lacking guidance, and the Dalian soybean meal might oscillate [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Spot prices were stable, and the market oscillated [4]. - **Corn**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Sugar**: Traded in a narrow range [4]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to U.S. tariff policies and their impacts [4]. - **Egg**: It was difficult to increase the culling rate, and attention should be paid to the pre - emptive expectations [4]. - **Live Pig**: The gaming sentiment increased [4]. - **Peanut**: There was support at the bottom [4].

Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]