Report Information - Report Title: Glass and Soda Ash Weekly Report - Report Date: November 30, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Chi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Glass Industry Core View - The glass market is currently in a sideways trend. It may rebound in the short - term due to the intersection of short - term production cut expectations and policy expectations, but long - term pressure remains due to factors such as forward premium and high inventory [2][3] Supply - As of November 27, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 220 in operation and 76 cold - repaired. The开工率 was 74.32% and the capacity utilization rate was 78.58%. As of November 20, the daily output was 157,200 tons, a decrease of 0.57% [2][3] - Hubei Yijun Yaoneng New Materials Co., Ltd.'s Yijun Second Line with a designed capacity of 900 tons stopped feeding during the week, and there were no ignition lines [2][3] - The total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines in 2025 was 15,580 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of ignited lines was 13,910 tons/day. The potential new ignition lines have a total daily melting volume of 14,790 tons/day, and the potential old - line复产 has a total daily melting volume of 10,030 tons. The potential cold - repair lines have a total daily melting volume of 10,700 tons/day [6][7][8] Demand - As of November 17, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.9 days, a decrease of 8.9% month - on - month and 24.2% year - on - year. In November, the average orders of deep - processing samples in each region decreased compared to the beginning of the month. The weak order situation led to some processing plants having phased holidays [2][3] Inventory - As of November 27, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.362 million heavy cases, a decrease of 941,000 heavy cases month - on - month (1.49% decrease) and an increase of 27.23% year - on - year. The inventory days were 27.5 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous period [2][3] Price and Profit - Some manufacturers slightly increased prices, with most remaining unchanged. The price in Shahe was around 1,080 - 1,100 yuan/ton (some increased by 20 yuan/ton), in central China's Hubei region it was around 1,060 - 1,100 yuan/ton (some manufacturers increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton), and in the eastern Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the price of some large manufacturers was around 1,180 - 1,220 yuan/ton (mostly stable) [15][19] - The profit of petroleum coke was around - 31 yuan/ton, and the profits of natural gas and coal - fueled were around - 227 and 4 yuan/ton respectively [23][27] Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways and weak, with upper pressure at 1,080 - 1,100 and lower support at 950 - 960 - Inter - period: Temporarily buy 01 and sell 05 - Inter - variety: Short - term buy glass and sell soda ash [2][3] Photovoltaic Glass Industry Price and Profit - Recent market transactions have weakened, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is around 12.5 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 1.96% month - on - month; the mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels is around 19.5 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 1.27% month - on - month [42][44] Capacity and Inventory - There are 402 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation, with a total daily melting volume of 87,940 tons/day, a decrease of 0.73% month - on - month and 7.32% year - on - year. The sample inventory days are about 29.33 days, an increase of 4.25% month - on - month [50][54] Soda Ash Industry Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash plants had phased maintenance and production cuts. The capacity utilization rate was 80%, down from 82.7% last week. The current weekly output of heavy soda ash is around 383,000 tons/week [59][61][62] Inventory - The domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.5874 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons (3.47% decrease) from last Thursday. Among them, light soda ash was 740,600 tons, a decrease of 16,500 tons month - on - month; heavy soda ash was 846,800 tons, a decrease of 40,500 tons month - on - month [65][67][68] Price and Profit - The nominal price in Shahe and Hubei was around 1,150 - 1,300 yuan/ton. The low - end price in Shahe was 1,150 yuan/ton, and the manufacturer's ex - factory price remained unchanged [75][79] - The joint - alkali profit in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 140 yuan/ton, and the ammonia - alkali profit in North China was - 38 yuan/ton [84] Strategy - Due to the recent continuation of production cuts and inventory decline, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the inter - period spread [80]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - This week's main concerns include a slight rebound in the week-on-week new home sales in 20 cities, a widening year-on-year decline, and only Hangzhou's new home sales were higher than the same period last year. Overall, the real estate sales remained weak. Commodity prices mostly rose, the production remained stable with a differentiated performance in the operating rates. The box office was significantly higher than the seasonal level due to the release of popular movies, which concentratedly reflected the viewing demand [2]. - The year-on-year decline in new home sales widened this week. The week-on-week growth rate of the new home transaction area in 20 cities tracked by Wind was 3.08%, and the year-on-year decline was 33.38%. Specifically, the new home transactions decreased week-on-week, and the year-on-year decline widened. The new home transaction area in second-tier cities was slightly weaker than the previous period, while those in first-tier and third - fourth - tier cities were stronger than the previous period. The year-on-year decline widened significantly, and the new home transaction areas in all tiers of cities were much weaker than the same period last year [2]. - In terms of investment and production, most commodity prices rose. The price of rebar increased slightly, with robust demand, steel mills reducing production, and merchants reluctant to sell, which supported the price increase. The cement price increased slightly as the weather improved, construction accelerated, and manufacturers pushed up the price, but the demand support was limited. The glass futures price rose, with an enhanced expectation of supply contraction, solid cost support, and short - term improvement in production and sales. The asphalt price decreased slightly due to the seasonal shrinkage of demand, sufficient supply, and weakened cost - end support [2]. - In industrial production, the operating rates showed a differentiated performance. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and automobile tires increased, the operating rate of coking enterprises increased slightly, while the operating rates of steel blast furnaces and PTA decreased, and the operating rate of polyester filament decreased slightly [2]. - In terms of consumption, the travel momentum was strong. The subway ridership, domestic flights, automobile consumption, and box office were higher than the seasonal levels [2]. - In terms of inflation, the pork price decreased, the vegetable price and oil price increased. This week, the vegetable price increased due to cold weather and rainfall leading to vegetable production reduction and poor supply connection. The crude oil price increased, driven by the expected production cut by OPEC+, the decline in US production, and geopolitical risks [2]. - In terms of exports, the SCFI and BDI increased this week. The transportation demand on the East Coast of the United States route rebounded, shipping companies promoted freight rate increases, and the operating cost provided support [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Remained Weak Year-on-Year - From November 21st to November 27th, the new home transactions decreased week-on-week, and the year-on-year decline widened. The week-on-week growth rate of the new home transaction area in 20 cities tracked by Wind was 3.08%, and the year-on-year decline was 33.38%. Among them, the new home transaction area in second-tier cities was slightly weaker than the previous period, while those in first-tier and third - fourth - tier cities were stronger than the previous period. The year-on-year decline widened significantly, and the new home transaction areas in all tiers of cities were much weaker than the same period last year [2][7]. - In terms of key cities, from a week-on-week perspective, except for Beijing (-32.88%), Shenzhen (-28.09%), and Hangzhou (-1.38%), the new home transactions in other key cities were significantly stronger than the previous period. From a year-on-year perspective, except for Hangzhou (18.73%), the new home transaction areas in other key cities were much weaker than the same period last year [7]. - From November 21st to November 27th, the second - hand home transactions showed a differentiated week-on-week performance, and the year-on-year decline widened. In key cities, from a week-on-week perspective, except for Hangzhou (-1.46%) and Shenzhen (-7.75%), the second - hand home transaction areas in other key cities were stronger than the previous period. From a year-on-year perspective, the second - hand home transaction areas in all key cities decreased significantly compared with the same period last year [7]. 2. Investment: Commodity Prices Mostly Rose - In terms of investment, most commodity prices rose this week. The prices of rebar and cement increased slightly, the glass futures price rose, and the asphalt price decreased slightly [31]. 3. Production: Operating Rates Showed a Differentiated Performance - In production, the operating rates showed a differentiated performance this week. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and automobile tires increased, the operating rate of coking enterprises increased slightly, while the operating rates of steel blast furnaces and PTA decreased, and the operating rate of polyester filament decreased slightly [39]. 4. Consumption: Travel Momentum was Strong - In terms of consumption, the subway ridership, domestic flights, automobile sales, and box office were higher than the seasonal levels [49]. 5. Exports: SCFI Increased, BDI Increased - In terms of exports, the SCFI index increased slightly, the BDI index increased, the port cargo throughput decreased, and the CRB spot index decreased slightly this week [55]. 6. Prices: Pork Price Decreased, Vegetable Price Increased, Oil Price Increased - In terms of prices, the pork price decreased slightly, the vegetable price increased, the oil price increased, and the rebar price increased slightly [60].

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs at the bottom, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The operating range of rebar may be between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coil may be between 3,100 - 3,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption. The risk lies in the possible negative feedback caused by the decline in the profit rate of steel enterprises [3] - Recently, iron ore prices have been running strongly, and the short - term trend is dominated by coking coal. The weakening of coking coal prices due to domestic supply - guarantee and price - stabilization policies and the resumption of Mongolian coal shipments provides support for iron ore prices by repairing steel mill profits. The short - term fundamentals of iron ore are balanced, with high - level fluctuations in shipments and stable hot metal production. The structural shortage of medium - grade ore resources leads to tight deliverable resources, strong spot prices, and a widening basis. Macroeconomically, the expectation of a US interest rate cut has been revised, increasing the expectation of a December rate cut, leading to a stock market rebound and a recovery in market risk appetite [22] - The main coking coal contract has been continuously hitting new lows recently, and the support at the lower edge of the shock range is being tested. If it is broken, the wide - range shock pattern that has lasted for a quarter may end. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are weakening. The domestic mine production is stable. The import of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and seaborne coal also has a price advantage, resulting in a marginal relaxation of the overall coking coal supply. On the demand side, due to the high spot price and the increasing expectation of coke price cuts, downstream procurement is cautious, leading to a marginal accumulation of upstream mine inventory. In the short term, the spot price will still be under pressure. In the medium - term, the bottom support for coking coal is relatively clear. On the one hand, there is still a rigid demand for winter storage, and price corrections will stimulate restocking demand. On the other hand, the macro - policy expectations in the first year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the "anti - deflation" policy will build a bottom support for far - month contracts [31] - Ferroalloys are facing the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand. With the impact of supply - guarantee policies on coking coal prices, the cost center may shift downwards. However, the supply side maintains a trend of production cuts, so the downward space for ferroalloys is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [47] - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Although the cost - side expectation is solid, the valuation lacks upward elasticity without a trend - like production cut. The medium - and long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. Photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, with relatively stable daily melting. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. In October, soda ash exports exceeded 210,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price of soda ash [60] - Unexpected cold repairs of glass production lines have begun to increase, and the expectation of cold repairs in December has resurfaced, but the implementation is to be determined, which will definitely affect the pricing and expectation of far - month contracts. However, the near - month 01 contract will still follow the reality (delivery logic), and the key is whether there is still an expectation of price cuts in Hubei. In reality, the glass spot market is weak, with continuous price cuts in Hubei and Shahe, and the inventory of futures, cash, and traders in Shahe and Hubei remains high. With the arrival of the off - season, the spot market is under great pressure and is prone to negative feedback. Currently, the position of the glass 01 contract is at a high level, and the game may continue until near the delivery [84] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 10 contract was 3,154 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3,302 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the 05 contract was 3,288 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 10 contract was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The rebar 01 - 05 spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 spread was 14 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on November 28, 2025, was 3,291 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day. The 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 140 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 12 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4 on November 28, 2025, unchanged from the previous day; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2, also unchanged [19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 794 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 768 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 09 contract was 743.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan. The 01 basis was - 0.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan [23] - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average hot metal production on November 28, 2025, was 234.68 thousand tons, down 1.6 thousand tons from the previous week. The 45 - port desilting volume was 3.3058 million tons, up 0.66 million tons from the previous week. The global shipment volume was 3.2784 billion tons, down 238 million tons from the previous week [26] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On November 28, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 154 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan from the previous day; the coke 09 - 01 spread was 223 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The盘面 coking profit was - 50 yuan/ton, down 20.422 yuan from the previous day [35] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal on November 28, 2025, was 1,580 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan from the previous week. The spot price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1,480 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The immediate coking profit was 38 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day [36] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On November 27, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 60 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan from the previous day. The silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was 36 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [48] - **Silicon Manganese**: On November 27, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 224 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [49] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1,235 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1,303 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the 01 contract was 1,177 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [61] - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The heavy soda ash market price in North China on November 28, 2025, was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The difference between heavy and light soda ash in North China was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [61] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1,223 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 01 contract was 1,053 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was - 53 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [85] - **Daily Sales Data**: On November 27, 2025, the sales rate in Shahe was 229, in Hubei was 174, in East China was 110, and in South China was 103 [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season. The price of steel products is likely to continue the weak shock in the short term, but with the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro - environment, the steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. - The iron ore price is expected to run within the shock range. If the molten iron output continues to decline, the ore price may decline periodically within the range [5]. - The ferroalloy price has declined significantly, but there is still hope for the positive impact of macro - events in December on the market sentiment. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment [9]. - For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for positions to do rebounds rather than continue to short [10]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to run in shock in the short term, paying attention to periodic emotional disturbances [14]. - The polysilicon price fluctuates widely within the range, and the focus is on the progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain [16]. - The glass price is expected to continue the shock trend at the bottom, and the space for further decline is limited [19]. - The soda ash is expected to maintain a weak operation before the glass demand improves substantially [21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3093 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.19%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 37919 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.069617 million lots, a decrease of 131083 lots month - on - month. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3293 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113732 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The position of the main contract was 0.876319 million lots, a decrease of 58870 lots month - on - month. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month [1]. Strategy Viewpoint - The supply and demand of rebar have both declined, and the inventory has been continuously depleted, showing a neutral overall performance. The output of hot - rolled coils has increased, the apparent demand has slightly declined, and the inventory has only been slightly depleted. South Korea's new anti - dumping tax policy will have a certain impact on steel exports. Overall, the steel demand has entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils still exists. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual progress of the production reduction rhythm [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 799.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.31% (+ 2.50). The position changed by - 5496 lots to 414300 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 934200 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 49.48 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.83% [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipping volume has decreased month - on - month. In the shipping end, the shipping volumes of Australia and Brazil have both decreased. The shipping volumes of the four major mines have all decreased month - on - month. The shipping volume of non - mainstream countries has increased to the highest level of the year, and the near - end arrival volume has increased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the daily average molten iron output was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16000 tons month - on - month. Due to the weakening of demand and the decline of profits, the number of blast furnaces under maintenance has increased significantly, and the number of blast furnaces that can be restarted in a short time is low. The profitability rate of steel mills has fallen to the lowest level in the same period of the past three years, and the proportion of profitable steel mills is 35%. In the inventory end, the port inventory has increased month - on - month, and the steel mill inventory has been slightly consumed. Overall, the iron ore inventory is still high, but there are still structural contradictions, and the spot has certain support. The iron ore price is expected to run within the shock range, and if the molten iron output continues to decline, the ore price may decline periodically [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On November 27, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.07% at 5626 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5630 yuan/ton, converted to the disk price of 5820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton month - on - month, with a premium of 192 yuan/ton over the disk. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.48% at 5390 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5400 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the disk [7][8]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the past week, the market risk appetite has weakened comprehensively. The ferroalloy price has declined significantly, but with the change of market expectations and the possible end of the decline of coking coal prices, although the pressure of price decline still exists, there is hope for the positive impact of macro - events in December on the market sentiment. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point, and pay attention to overseas emotional fluctuations. For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for positions to do rebounds. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, and attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9115 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.05% (+ 95). The weighted contract position changed by - 23518 lots to 409946 lots. In the spot market, the market price of non - oxygen - passing 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month, and the basis of the main contract was 235 yuan/ton; the market price of 421 was 9800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis of the main contract was - 115 yuan/ton after converting to the disk price [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The industrial silicon price rebounded slightly in the short term, and the support below was acceptable. The weekly output of industrial silicon continued the downward trend, and the supply continued to shrink. The weekly output of polysilicon declined, and the maintenance of some enterprise bases was carried out smoothly. The organic silicon raised the spot price after the industry joint price - support meeting, but the output did not reach the expected reduction amplitude. The net export in October decreased significantly. The cost - end factors provided support for the industrial silicon disk. Overall, the current situation of industrial silicon has not changed significantly, and the price is expected to run in shock in the short term, paying attention to periodic emotional disturbances [13][14]. Polysilicon - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 55235 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.18% (- 660). The weighted contract position changed by + 866 lots to 255238 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, with no change month - on - month; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, with no change month - on - month; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg month - on - month, and the basis of the main contract was - 2935 yuan/ton [15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Polysilicon is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The production schedule in November has decreased, and the weekly output data has gradually declined, and the production reduction expectation has been fulfilled. The downstream silicon wafer output is expected to decline month - on - month compared with October. In the future, the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally under the large - scale reduction of supply, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells have loosened, and the price pressure still exists under the weak demand. The upstream silicon material quotation is relatively firm, facing the price feedback pressure from the downstream. Under the weak reality background, the expectation of storage and the establishment of the platform company continue to tug at the disk, and the disk price is easy to fall or rise rapidly under the news disturbance. The focus in the future is still on the progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain. In addition, the spread between near - and far - month contracts has intensified, and attention should be paid to the unstable risk caused by the rapid conversion of capital sentiment [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Information: On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1041 yuan/ton, up 0.39% (+ 4) on the day. The quotation of large plates in North China was 1070 yuan, with no change from the previous day; the quotation in Central China was 1080 yuan, with no change from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 62.362 million boxes, a decrease of 0.941 million boxes (- 1.49%) month - on - month. The top 20 holders of long orders reduced their long positions by 70889 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders reduced their short positions by 59259 lots today [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The expectation of cold repair of glass production lines in December has increased, and the supply is expected to shrink to a certain extent. The downstream processing orders are insufficient, and enterprises mostly purchase on demand, resulting in a lack of strong support for prices. With the decline of soda ash prices, the market's expectation of glass prices has further weakened. Overall, the current glass valuation is at a relatively low level, and the glass price is expected to continue the shock trend at the bottom, and the space for further decline is limited [19]. Soda Ash - Market Information: On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1176 yuan/ton, up 0.09% (+ 1) on the day. The quotation of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1146 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5874 million tons, a decrease of 57000 tons (- 1.49%) month - on - month. Among them, the inventory of heavy soda ash was 0.8468 million tons, a decrease of 40500 tons month - on - month, and the inventory of light soda ash was 0.7406 million tons, a decrease of 16500 tons month - on - month. The top 20 holders of long orders reduced their long positions by 8830 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders reduced their short positions by 9343 lots today [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Last week, some devices were under maintenance, driving the industry's operating rate to decline slightly, but it failed to reverse the market's oversupply situation. The demand shows differentiation. The demand for light soda ash is stable, and the tight local supply has pushed up the quotation. The demand for heavy soda ash is still weak, and the orders of glass factories in Shahe area are insufficient, and the price has been under pressure to decline several times this week. Although the rising coal price at the cost end provides certain support for soda ash, the high inventory and weak demand always constitute the main negative driving force. Before the glass demand improves substantially, the soda ash is expected to maintain a weak operation [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [7] Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black industry have limited bright spots, and prices are under pressure. Glass and soda ash prices rebounded from low levels due to supply - side disturbances. As the Central Economic Work Conference approaches, there may be positive news from the macro and policy fronts. Attention should be paid to the potential for short - term upward movements driven by improved macro sentiment [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with reduced shipments from Australia and Brazil and increased shipments from non - mainstream mines. Port stocks increased, steel mills' imported ore inventories decreased, and the demand for restocking has not been significantly released. Iron water production decreased month - on - month, and steel mills' profitability declined. The short - term iron ore price is expected to oscillate [3]. - The supply of scrap steel increased while demand remained stable. After the price decline, its cost - effectiveness improved, and the downside space is limited. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [3] Carbon Element - After profit recovery and relaxation of environmental protection measures, coke supply stabilized. In the short term, the rigid demand from steel mills remained strong, and the total inventory remained low. However, the cost support for spot goods continued to weaken, and the market expected price cuts. The coke futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [3]. - Domestic coking coal supply remained low, and its fundamentals have not significantly weakened. After the spot price correction, there is still an expectation of restocking for winter storage. The near - term futures contracts are affected by delivery, and the price is expected to oscillate. The far - term contracts are undervalued, and the fundamentals strongly support the price [3] Alloys - The cost of ferromanganese silicon provides support, but the market supply and demand remain loose, and the upward pressure on prices is significant. The futures price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [6]. - The firm cost supports the bottom of the ferrosilicon price, but the market supply and demand are still loose, suppressing the upward price space. The futures price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [6] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions for glass, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will suppress prices; otherwise, prices may rise. The soda ash price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus will intensify, and the price center will decline [6]. Specific Products - **Steel**: In the off - season, demand is weakening, and the steel inventory is higher than the same period last year. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron water production decreased month - on - month, and the profitability continued to decline. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply increased while demand remained stable. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Coke**: Supply increased as profits improved, and cost support weakened. The futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [12]. - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals marginally weakened, and the futures and spot prices are under pressure. The near - term contracts are expected to oscillate, and the far - term contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [13]. - **Glass**: Affected by the expected price increase from manufacturers, the sales improved. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, prices will be under pressure; otherwise, they may rise [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus will intensify, and the price center will decline [16]. - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The cost provides support, but the supply and demand are loose, and the futures price is expected to operate at a low level [17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The cost supports the bottom, but the supply and demand are loose, and the futures price is expected to operate at a low level [18]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and a slight reduction in inventory. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with ample imported goods and weakening demand except for agricultural films. Overall, the 01 contract still faces significant pressure [2]. Crude Oil - During the US Thanksgiving, trading was light, and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks were uncertain, leading to a slight increase in overnight oil prices. However, due to OPEC+ continuous production increase and record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern remains weak. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with short - term focus on the $60/barrel support for Brent crude and the results of the Russia - Ukraine talks [4]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, domestic production areas are gradually entering the production - reducing and cutting - off season, and floods in southern Thailand and Vietnam need time to recede, providing strong cost support. However, the arrival of overseas shipments is increasing seasonally, and inventory accumulation suppresses spot prices. On the demand side, overall demand is weak, and the market mainly digests channel inventory. Natural rubber is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation, with the price likely to weaken if raw material supply is smooth, and to run in the 15000 - 15500 range if supply is restricted [6]. Methanol - In the inland market, Jiutai's maintenance is over, and subsequent domestic production will continue to increase. Currently, marginal inland plants are in the red. In Iran, some plants have started gas - restricted shutdowns, improving market sentiment and strengthening the futures price and basis. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [8][9]. LPG No specific overall view provided in the given content. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: New production capacity and plant restarts are expected, and although some plants are reducing production, supply remains loose. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some loss - making varieties are reducing production. Port inventory is rising, and short - term prices may be dragged down by oil prices. The strategy is to short on rebounds for BZ2603 in the short term. - Styrene: With profit recovery, some plants are increasing production, but planned and unplanned shutdowns and maintenance are also increasing, limiting supply. Downstream demand support is limited, and overseas blending demand is cooling, but there are still export expectations. The short - term supply - demand outlook is improving, but the rebound space is limited. EB01 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. Ester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term supply is relatively high, and demand is weak due to PTA plant maintenance and weakening terminal demand. The short - term driver is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is tight, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. - PTA: Supply reduction exceeds expectations, and demand from polyester is supported. Exports are expected to increase. The supply - demand outlook is improving, and the basis is recovering. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and the strategy is to go long on the TA month - spread at low levels. - Ethylene Glycol (EG): Polyester demand provides some support, but supply from coal - based plants is increasing, and imports are expected to be high. The port inventory has limited downward space. The strategy is to short the EG1 - 5 spread at high levels. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak. The absolute price has limited drivers, and processing fees are expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline. The strategy is to short the processing fee [14]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda Ash: Recent production has declined, and inventory has decreased, supporting the futures price. However, the medium - term oversupply problem persists, and demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid level. The supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds. - Glass: News of production line shutdowns in Hubei has boosted the market sentiment, and the futures price has rebounded, driving better spot sales. There is still some short - term rigid demand, but long - term demand is a concern, especially with the approaching winter in the north. The market still needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. The 01 contract may face pressure near the delivery month [15]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The industry still faces supply - demand pressure. Regional supply in East China will decrease next week, but with the monthly contract signing, the spot price in East China is expected to decline if the futures price remains weakening. The demand from the main downstream, alumina, is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the long term. - PVC: The spot market remains weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is sluggish, especially during the traditional off - season from November to January. Although the cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial, the expected anti - dumping tax implementation limits external demand. The supply - demand pattern is in surplus, and the price is expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [16]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 and L2605 prices decreased slightly, while PP2601 and PP2605 prices increased. L15, LP01 spreads decreased, and PP15 spread increased. Spot prices of some products changed slightly [2]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP inventories decreased, with PE enterprise inventory down 9.80% and PP enterprise inventory down 8.00% [2]. - **开工率**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.17%, and PP powder operating rate increased by 6.93%, while PP device operating rate decreased slightly [2]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI prices increased slightly, while SC price decreased. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI decreased [4]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB price increased, while NYM ULSD and ICE Gasoil prices decreased [4]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber prices increased slightly, and some spreads changed [6]. - **Fundamentals**: September production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. changed, and October tire production, exports, and natural rubber imports decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased, while some出库 and入库 rates changed [6]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices increased, and some spreads and basis changed [8]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.19%, while port and social inventories decreased [8]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed, with downstream - formaldehyde operating rate increasing by 2.73% [9]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: PG2512, PG2601, etc. prices decreased slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [11]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory decreased [11]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Prices of some upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene changed slightly, and some spreads decreased [13]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [13]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [13]. - **开工率**: Some industry operating rates such as domestic pure benzene and styrene changed [13]. Ester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of some upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX changed slightly [14]. - **Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of some polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed slightly, and cash flows and processing fees of some products changed [14]. - **开工率**: Some industry operating rates such as PTA, MEG, and polyester changed [14]. Glass - Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot and futures prices changed slightly, and some basis changed [15]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: Glass and soda ash inventories decreased [15]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area, construction area, etc. changed, with some showing a decline [15]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: Prices of caustic soda and PVC changed slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [16]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC decreased, and export profits changed [16]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased slightly [16]. - **Demand**: Operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed [16]. - **Inventory**: Some inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed [16].

Core Insights - The report from Guotai Junan indicates an increase in consumer sentiment and continued growth in the technology manufacturing sector, with notable trends in various industries [1] Consumer Sector - Domestic demand indicators are improving, with tourism and long-distance travel showing continuous recovery, suggesting a shift towards service-oriented and mass consumer goods consumption despite a contraction in real estate and durable goods [1] - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities saw a year-on-year decline of 25.8%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of 49.8%, 12.6%, and 22.3% respectively; the sales volume in major cities continues to struggle [1] - Durable goods consumption remains under pressure, with average daily retail sales of passenger cars declining year-on-year; in October, domestic sales and exports of air conditioners fell by 21.3% and 19.0% respectively [1][2] Technology & Manufacturing - The technology hardware sector is experiencing marginal growth slowdown, influenced by AI infrastructure investments; however, the overall sentiment remains strong, with October's PCB exports increasing by 23.4% year-on-year, despite a decline in growth rate [3] - Construction demand is still weak, with slight recovery in steel prices due to reduced operating rates of blast furnaces; prices for glass and cement continue to be under pressure [3] - The new energy lithium battery sector remains robust, with a year-on-year increase in power battery sales of 49.9% from January to October, while prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate continue to rise [3] Logistics & Transportation - Long-distance travel demand has improved significantly, with the Baidu migration index showing a month-on-month increase of 3.8% and a year-on-year increase of 18.0%; airline passenger load factors are high, indicating a recovery in business and tourism travel [4] - Freight logistics have seen a month-on-month decline, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volumes decreasing by 2.2% and 0.3% respectively; postal and express delivery volumes also fell significantly post "Double Eleven" [4] - Maritime transport prices for dry bulk and oil have risen sharply, driven by increased demand from iron ore and crude oil production [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the building materials industry [12]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights an increase in expectations regarding real estate policies, suggesting a focus on high-quality consumer building materials leaders. The industry is experiencing intensified downward pressure, but the anticipated policy tools aim to reduce housing burdens, which could support residential demand [6][9]. - The report recommends focusing on quality leaders in consumer building materials, such as SanKeTree, TuBaoBao, and WeiXing New Materials, as they possess bottom value and are expected to benefit from policy changes and operational turning points [6][9]. - The report notes a slight decline in cement prices and a shift in glass inventory from decrease to increase, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [7][8]. Summary by Sections Basic Situation - Cement prices have slightly decreased, with a national average of 355.65 yuan/ton, down 1.45 yuan/ton week-on-week and down 76.77 yuan/ton year-on-year. The cement output rate is approximately 45.5%, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point decrease [24][32]. - The glass market is operating weakly, with a national average price of 61.55 yuan per weight box, down 1.84 yuan per weight box week-on-week and down 15.22 yuan year-on-year. The inventory of glass has increased, indicating pressure on the market [38][40]. Recommendations - The report continues to recommend investments in the African supply chain and existing supply chain leaders, highlighting companies like Huaxin Cement and Keda Manufacturing as key players benefiting from demand recovery and structural optimization [9]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on quality leaders in the consumer building materials sector, particularly those with strong business models and growth potential, such as SanKeTree and TuBaoBao [9]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the downward slope of the industry is increasing, with a focus on the expected rise in real estate policies. The core reasons for the pressure on housing prices in major cities are linked to income and inflation expectations, as well as the rental-to-sale ratio being inverted with mortgage rates [6][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall economic outlook is mixed, with most Fed districts reporting flat economic activity, some facing a risk of slowdown, and others showing slight growth or decline [8]. - The steel and ore market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to long - term [11][13]. - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations [11]. - In the agricultural sector, different products have different trends, such as cotton in low - level oscillations, sugar under supply pressure, and eggs with high inventory and limited upside potential [26][28][29]. - In the energy and chemical industry, oil prices are in a long - term downward trend, and various products' prices follow different factors such as geopolitical events and supply - demand relationships [37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - information - China and the EU discussed semiconductor and other economic and trade issues, aiming to restore the semiconductor supply chain [6]. - Vanke faced a "double - kill" in stocks and bonds, and a bond展期 meeting will be held [6]. - Six departments issued a plan to boost consumer goods consumption, targeting specific consumption areas by 2027 [6]. - The Chinese non - ferrous metals association opposed zero or negative processing fees in copper smelting and managed copper smelting capacity [7]. - Treasury companies that hoarded cryptocurrencies suffered a "double - kill" in stock and coin prices [7]. - NVIDIA denied accounting fraud accusations [7]. - The Fed's economic activity was mostly flat, with some areas showing decline or growth, and the risk of slowdown increased [8]. - US economic data showed mixed results, including changes in jobless claims, durable goods orders [8][9]. - Japan's central bank may raise interest rates [8]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market had mixed performance, with military stocks falling and some concepts rising. Vanke's situation affected the market [10]. Treasury Futures - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations. Although there were sharp fluctuations, the short - term nature was high, considering factors like capital and fundamentals [11]. Steel and Ore - Short - term: expected to be volatile; Medium - to long - term: bearish. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for some plate products is okay. Supply may decline, and inventory is relatively high. Valuation shows that steel prices are likely to be weak [11][12][13]. Agriculture Cotton - Under the influence of large supply pressure and weak demand, it is in low - level oscillations, with high costs providing some support [26]. Sugar - Facing supply pressure, the price is under downward pressure, but cost provides a limit. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Eggs - The near - month futures contracts are under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds with caution. High inventory and weak consumption are the main factors, but there are positive expectations for the long - term [29][30]. Apples - Expected to be slightly bullish. The acquisition season has ended, and the market is now in the outbound stage. Prices are stable, and inventory and consumption need attention [31]. Corn - Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The current rise is due to "supply - demand mismatch," and there may be a correction in the spot price [33]. Red Dates - Temporarily wait and see. The prices in production and sales areas are stable, and the futures price is weak [34]. Pigs - In the short - term, supply pressure increases, and the price is weak. In the long - term, the decline in the number of sows is positive for prices [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - In a long - term downward trend, it is advisable to short on rallies. Geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations affect the price [37]. Fuel Oil - The price fluctuates with the oil price. Supply is loose, and demand is flat. Geopolitical and macro factors are the main drivers [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile due to large supply and weak demand, but production losses may provide some support [40]. Rubber - The price difference between ru and nr may widen. Pay attention to Southeast Asian weather and raw material supply [41]. Synthetic Rubber - The short - term price is weak. It is advisable to hold short - call strategies or short on rallies [42]. Methanol - Near - month contracts: temporarily weak and volatile; Far - month contracts: turn to a volatile trend. Pay attention to inventory and import arrivals [43][44]. Caustic Soda - Keep a volatile mindset. The spot price is weakening, and the futures price is controlled by bears [45]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase. Pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - The price is adjusting strongly due to improved sentiment and supply - demand structure. Different products in the chain have different supply - demand situations [47]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The short - term bullish factors are fully realized, and the price may turn weak. It is affected by supply, demand, and oil price trends [48]. Paper Pulp - Enter a range - bound stage. It is advisable to wait and see. The fundamentals are stable, and supply and demand are in a weak balance [49][50]. Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish. The spot price is under pressure, and the market is expected to be in a weak supply - demand balance [51]. Urea - The spot price may be bullish, and the futures market may have short - term emotional trading. Keep a wide - range volatile mindset [52]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Hold short positions at high levels. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by macro and inventory factors [18]. Lead - Hold short positions cautiously. The price is falling, and the inventory is decreasing. Import and export data show certain trends [19][20][21]. Lithium Carbonate - In wide - range fluctuations. The short - term is affected by the game between weak fundamentals and long - term optimistic expectations [22]. Industrial Silicon - Continue to oscillate. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the adjustment space is limited [23]. Polysilicon - Continue to oscillate. Buy on dips. The supply - demand contradiction is weaker than the policy expectation contradiction [24].