（文章来源：第一财经） 华泰证券研报称，2026年，预期全球电解铜供给仍有限，同比增量66万吨，增速2.4%；全球电解铜需 求由美国囤库及电网建设驱动，同比增量93万吨，增速3.3%；因此供需或从过剩转为短缺，叠加海外 通胀、流动性边际宽松等因素，铜价中枢或同比显著抬升。中长期来看，全球技术进步叠加海外制造业 复苏，多周期共振下2026—2028年电解铜需求或保持高增；而供给约束性较强（铜矿扰动频繁、资源稀 缺、对价格反应滞后），预测全球供需保持短缺，该期间铜价有望冲击$15000/t以上。 ...

（原标题：十大券商策略：回归业绩！主题轮动加快 聚焦这些板块） 中信证券：告别喧嚣，回归业绩 融资保证金的调整并不影响市场震荡上行的大方向，但会影响结构。主题板块博弈加剧，纯靠叙事和资金接力驱动的单边趋势行情结束。步入年 报预告期，业绩线索的权重重新开始上升。ETF的巨额赎回属于逆周期调节的一部分，也给配置型资金提供了从容"上车"的窗口。配置上，好的 组合应该是体验好、阻力小且抗焦虑的，这是围绕"资源+传统制造定价权重估"为基础（化工、有色、电力设备和新能源）构建组合的优势。在此 基础上，可逢低增配非银（证券、保险），同时通过部分服务消费品种（如免税、航空等）或高景气品种（半导体设备等）增强收益。 国泰海通：主题轮动加快，聚焦国产半导体与电力 上周证监会提出严肃查处过度炒作乃至操纵市场等违法违规行为，坚决防止市场大起大落。近期涨幅较大且引发投资者热议的商业航天/GEO等主 题炒作回归理性。国内千问/豆包等模型产品迭代加速拉动国产算力需求，台积电资本开支指引超预期，国家电网加码"十五五"投资等成为新催 化，交易监管有助于引导市场行稳致远，主题轮动节奏加快，看好具备强需求支撑且产业催化密集的低位科技方向，如国产算 ...

近年来科技主线引领市场行情，基金经理对人工智能（AI）、机器人等赛道的布局，已从基于中观产 业的广泛布局，转变为极致聚焦于细分技术和应用。近期，2025年基金四季报披露拉开帷幕，一批此前 表现较好的主题基金率先发布季报，其中有不少是在社交媒体上备受关注的"工具基"，如聚焦人形机器 人、算力、AI应用等细分赛道品种的产品，其调仓换股路线，体现了科技浪潮的澎湃叙事。科技主线 表现强劲的同时，有色金属板块也持续走强，有基金经理表示，该板块在2026年仍有明确投资机会。 （中国证券报） ...

联博基金市场策略负责人李长风表示，对2026年全球经济仍保持乐观态度。在美国采取相对宽松的刺激 性政策，同时中国也在同步推进货币宽松的背景下，2026年有望出现一个相对友好的资本市场环境。 展望2026年资本市场走势，李长风认为，需要留意下述三个趋势能否延续。第一，由于美国就业数据出 现恶化迹象，美联储可能采取预防性降息；中国也有可能继续降息降准，因此预计2026年仍是流动性偏 宽松的年份，有助于资本市场表现。第二，在政策方面，2026年美国预计会继续推出友善资本市场的政 策；中国也在经历结构转型阶段，预计会有支持资本市场的政策持续推出。第三，AI方面，AI的投资 逻辑在2026年与前几年可能会有一些不同，需要更关注AI应用能否真正迎来发酵。"前期大量投资集中 在芯片，但在应用端盈利尚未体现，所以我们今年会比较关注这些应用层面的成长性是否开始兑现。" □本报记者 魏昭宇 上周，联博基金、财通基金、瑞银证券等多家资产管理机构在上海举办了投资策略会。多位投研人士围 绕人工智能、周期等热门板块进行展望。 谈及2026年大势，业内人士表示，A股市场有望步入整体环境更优、结构性特征深化的发展阶段，核心 驱动力源于全球流 ...

Group 1 - A-shares are showing steady growth in 2026, with foreign institutions actively conducting research to seize investment opportunities, particularly in technology sectors like AI, semiconductors, and electronic devices [1] - As of January 15, 2026, foreign institutions have conducted a total of 70 research sessions on A-share listed companies, with Anji Technology receiving the most attention from 27 foreign institutions [1] - UBS Wealth Management indicates that despite strong performance in the Chinese stock market since 2025, valuations remain low compared to global peers, suggesting significant upside potential [1] Group 2 - Morgan Asset Management forecasts a potential slowdown in global economic growth in 2026, with a supportive low-interest-rate environment expected to bolster economic development [2] - The liquidity environment in China is anticipated to remain loose, with a clear supportive policy stance from the government, which is expected to benefit the stock market [2] - Key investment directions identified include AI-driven sectors, lithium battery industry, non-ferrous metals, machinery benefiting from overseas demand, and semiconductor fields focusing on domestic GPU and equipment [2] Group 3 - Fidelity Fund emphasizes the importance of the "super track" of artificial intelligence and three strong sectors: aerospace, low-altitude economy, and innovative consumer [3]

作为长期资金代表，险资动向是市场关注重点。 开年仅10个工作日，保险机构调研上市公司马不停蹄。券商中国记者根据Wind信息统计，截至1月18日，81家 险资机构（包括保险公司和保险资管公司）合计调研A股上市公司超300次，涉及80家上市公司。 从机构来看，华泰资产以22次调研总次数居首，泰康资产、大家资产、太平养老、国寿资产、新华资产、阳光 资产的调研次数均在10次以上。 与去年同期相比，险资机构今年以来调研次数减少明显。据统计，2025年全年，保险公司及保险资管公司调研 上市公司合计超1.8万次，2025年下半年合计调研上市公司近万次。 从去年全年来看，泰康资产调研1087次，大家资产调研728次，华泰资产调研723次，是最为积极的三家。人保 资产，新华资产、平安养老、太平资产、国寿资产、长江养老、华夏久盈资产调研均超过500次。 从个股来看，海天瑞声、利欧股份、盛达资源、新开普、翔宇医疗、熵基科技等个股均获超5家险资机构调 研；云南铜业、超捷股份、壹网壹创、狄耐克、中科信息、京北方、浙矿股份、中集集团、云南锗业、小商品 城等分别获超3家险资机构调研。 AI，大事！马斯克，索赔9300亿元！ 险资机构对创业 ...

中信证券：告别喧嚣，回归业绩 融资保证金的调整并不影响市场震荡上行的大方向，但会影响结构。主题板块博弈加剧，纯靠叙事和资金接力 驱动的单边趋势行情结束。步入年报预告期，业绩线索的权重重新开始上升。ETF的巨额赎回属于逆周期调节 的一部分，也给配置型资金提供了从容"上车"的窗口。配置上，好的组合应该是体验好、阻力小且抗焦虑的， 这是围绕"资源+传统制造定价权重估"为基础（化工、有色、电力设备和新能源）构建组合的优势。在此基础 上，可逢低增配非银（证券、保险），同时通过部分服务消费品种（如免税、航空等）或高景气品种（半导体 设备等）增强收益。 国泰海通：主题轮动加快，聚焦国产半导体与电力 上周证监会提出严肃查处过度炒作乃至操纵市场等违法违规行为，坚决防止市场大起大落。近期涨幅较大且引 发投资者热议的商业航天/GEO等主题炒作回归理性。国内千问/豆包等模型产品迭代加速拉动国产算力需求， 台积电资本开支指引超预期，国家电网加码"十五五"投资等成为新催化，交易监管有助于引导市场行稳致远， 主题轮动节奏加快，看好具备强需求支撑且产业催化密集的低位科技方向，如国产算力、新型电网、机器人、 内需消费。 华泰证券：短期震荡概率 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the A-share market is currently experiencing a phase of regulatory adjustments aimed at controlling excessive market enthusiasm while ensuring sustainable growth [8][9][10] - It emphasizes the importance of the AI technology revolution and the trend of de-globalization, which are expected to persist for the next 5-10 years, creating investment opportunities in related sectors [9][10][22] - The report suggests that the Chinese economy is in a transition phase, benefiting from a unified market policy and a low-interest-rate environment, which may lead to increased foreign capital inflows into RMB assets [10][12] Market Overview - The A-share market saw a significant trading volume of 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14, marking a historical high, but subsequently retreated to around 3 trillion yuan, indicating a cooling of market exuberance [8][9] - The report notes that the recent increase in the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100% by the regulatory authority reflects a counter-cyclical adjustment strategy [8][9] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in commodities such as copper, rare earths, and gold, which are expected to gain value amid geopolitical tensions and the ongoing trend of de-globalization [10][18][20] - It also points out that the rapid development of AI is likely to drive demand for computing power and related infrastructure, benefiting sectors like new energy vehicles and resource materials [22][24] Economic Trends - The report anticipates that the global economy will continue to experience a loose monetary policy environment, with fiscal expansions expected in major economies, which may further enhance liquidity and support resource sectors [20][22] - Historical data indicates that periods of RMB appreciation are often accompanied by significant foreign capital inflows into Chinese assets, suggesting a favorable outlook for the A-share market [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The current market sentiment is driven by liquidity and risk appetite, leading to a concentration of hot sectors and thematic investments, which has resulted in structural overheating in some areas [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The recent "opening red" market rally is characterized by significant liquidity and heightened risk preferences, with a clear focus on thematic investments [1][2] - The adjustment of financing margin ratios aims to prevent systemic risks and guide the market back to rationality, while broad-based ETFs have experienced significant net outflows, indicating a market entering a phase of consolidation [1][2] - Historical comparisons suggest that the current spring market rally is still in its early stages, with potential for new highs following a short-term correction [1][2] Group 2: Sector Focus - Analysts emphasize that the upcoming earnings reporting period will shift focus back to performance indicators, particularly in sectors expected to show high growth or improved conditions, such as electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals [1][2] - The adjustment in financing margins is not expected to impact the overall upward trend of the market but will affect sector dynamics, with increased competition among thematic sectors [2][3] - The focus on sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend and price increases includes chemicals and non-ferrous metals, with a particular emphasis on high-growth areas in the upcoming earnings forecasts [2][3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, with a focus on performance fundamentals as the primary driver of investment decisions, while cautioning against irrational speculative activities [2][3] - The anticipated earnings reports in late January are expected to catalyze significant market movements, particularly in sectors with strong performance indicators [2][3] - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with expectations of continued upward momentum despite short-term fluctuations, driven by fundamental improvements and policy support [2][3]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing high volatility with a potential for a stable transition into the second phase of the spring market, supported by favorable factors that have not changed [1][6] - The upcoming earnings announcements are expected to increase the importance of performance indicators, with high-quality companies showing solid fundamentals likely to yield excess returns [1][6] Investment Strategies - The investment focus remains on "anti-involution + technology," with sectors such as AI applications, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment gaining attention for their investment value [1][10] - Citic Securities suggests constructing investment portfolios based on "resource + traditional manufacturing pricing re-evaluation," including sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [5] - Dongwu Securities emphasizes that the market is likely to stabilize, with a focus on companies with strong fundamentals and exceeding performance expectations [6] Regulatory Developments - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to no less than 30%, allowing local authorities to set lower limits based on local conditions [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is seeking public opinion on the draft regulations for derivative trading, aiming to manage risks and support the real economy while limiting excessive speculation [3] Sector Insights - Open-source Securities highlights three main investment lines: recovery within the technology sector, benefiting from "anti-involution" policies in non-ferrous metals and chemicals, and maintaining gold and high-dividend assets as long-term holdings [7] - Fortune Fund identifies four key investment themes for 2026: embracing technology trends, enhancing the influence of Chinese manufacturing overseas, capturing cyclical rebound opportunities, and benefiting from the appreciation of the RMB in the non-bank financial sector [8] - Huatai Bairui Fund anticipates increased attention on resource and energy sectors due to improving domestic and foreign policy environments, which may lead to enhanced corporate profitability [9]