Core Conclusions - The trend in 2026 is entering an acceleration phase due to the "three invariants" during the Kondratiev depression period [2] - The direction of RMB appreciation remains unchanged, with adjustments mainly in the pace of appreciation [13][14] - Global secondary inflation is inevitable, driven by factors beyond consumer support [24][29] - The logic of the commodity supercycle is accelerating due to geopolitical tensions and strategic stockpiling [32][33] Group 1: RMB Appreciation - The offshore RMB exchange rate has reached new highs, indicating accelerated cross-border capital inflows [13] - The central bank's adjustments focus on the slope rather than the direction of the exchange rate [14] - Historical data suggests that similar regulatory policies have limited impact on long-term exchange rate trends [14][18] Group 2: Global Secondary Inflation - The market's expectation of a "soft landing" is merely a short-term illusion, with secondary inflation being unavoidable [24] - The January PPI data in the US exceeded expectations, indicating inflation driven by core goods and trade rather than consumer spending [24][25] - The correlation between PPI and effective exchange rates has strengthened since 2022, suggesting a more robust inflationary trend [29][30] Group 3: Commodity Supercycle - Geopolitical risks are driving demand for strategic stockpiling, marking the acceleration of the commodity supercycle [32] - Historical patterns indicate that during wartime, credit currencies depreciate rapidly, leading to significant increases in commodity prices [33] - The current geopolitical landscape is reminiscent of past commodity cycles, emphasizing the importance of physical asset allocation [33][34] Group 4: Dollar Tides in the Kondratiev Depression - The "three invariants" suggest that the trend in 2026 is not a turning point but an acceleration [38] - The dollar's influence has shifted through various phases, with the current phase favoring US assets due to AI-driven capital inflows [38][39] - The commodity supercycle is expected to expand, with A-shares potentially outperforming US stocks as liquidity issues arise in the latter [39] Group 5: Embracing the Commodity Supercycle - The year 2026 is anticipated to witness a wave of prosperity for "catch-up" countries, driven by moderate inflation and improving profits [43] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors benefiting from the commodity supercycle, including refining, precious metals, and coal [43]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of February 27, 2026, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 22.8x and PB at 1.9x, positioned at the historical 83rd and 53rd percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 PE is at 11.5x and PB at 1.3x, at the historical 58th and 37th percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 PE is at 14.1x and PB at 1.5x, at the historical 64th and 38th percentiles [2] - The CSI 500 PE is at 38.8x and PB at 2.7x, at the historical 71st and 63rd percentiles [2] - The CSI 1000 PE is at 52.3x and PB at 2.8x, at the historical 75th and 63rd percentiles [2] - The National Index 2000 PE is at 64.8x and PB at 3.0x, at the historical 79th and 72nd percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index PE is at 43.3x and PB at 5.7x, at the historical 43rd and 66th percentiles [2] - The Sci-Tech 50 PE is at 165.6x and PB at 6.5x, at the historical 95th and 72nd percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index/CSI 300 PE ratio is 3.1 and PB ratio is 3.8, at the historical 29th and 62nd percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Automation Equipment, Retail, Electronics (Semiconductors), and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Industrial Metals, Minor Metals, Defense, Electronics (Semiconductors), and Communications [2] - The White Goods industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2] Sector Insights New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream polysilicon futures prices fell by 4.8% and spot prices by 3.7%, with weak demand affecting sentiment [2] - In the battery materials sector, cobalt and nickel prices increased by 3.2% and 2.2% respectively, while lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices rose by 19.7% and 16.8% [2] Technology TMT - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index decreased by 2.0%, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Index increased by 4.8% [3] - The DRAM output value index rose by 3.6%, with NAND prices increasing by 5.6% [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar fell by 1.1%, while futures prices increased by 0.4% [3] - The national cement price index decreased by 0.4%, while glass prices rose by 1.0% [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs fell by 7.7%, and wholesale pork prices decreased by 3.6% [3] - The wholesale price index for liquor saw a slight increase of 0.03% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Heavy truck sales increased by 46.0% year-on-year in January 2026, driven by tax incentives and subsidies [3] Cyclical Industries - The price of Brent crude oil futures rose by 1.2% to $72.52 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions [3] - The price of thermal coal increased by 4.0% to 751 RMB/ton, while coking coal prices fell by 2.0% to 1501 RMB/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, the overall volatility of the commodity options market decreased. The trading volume of agricultural product options increased due to contract roll - over. Some varieties in the black and non - ferrous sectors experienced increased volatility and higher open interest. The geopolitical risks over the weekend led to increased expected volatility in the precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and chemical sectors. Considering the high implied volatility of call options, a bull call spread strategy can be considered for long positions, and the strike price of the long call option can be gradually raised to reduce the maximum risk of the position [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The overall volatility of the commodity options market decreased after the holiday. The trading volume of agricultural product options increased during the contract roll - over. Some varieties in the black and non - ferrous sectors saw increased volatility and higher open interest. Due to weekend geopolitical risks, the expected volatility of precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and the chemical sector increased. A bull call spread strategy can be used for long positions, and the strike price of the long call option can be gradually raised to reduce the maximum risk of the position [5]. - Market data shows that the trading volume of the entire market decreased by 0.67% to 5,512,888.0, while the open interest increased by 0.09% to 7,701,848. Among different sectors, the trading volume of agricultural products increased by 0.06% to 1,422,480.75, and the open interest decreased by 0.14% to 2,507,785; the trading volume of energy and chemicals decreased by 0.43% to 2,419,537.25, and the open interest increased by 0.23% to 3,144,995; the trading volume of the black sector increased by 3.82% to 488,594.0, and the open interest increased by 0.13% to 766,022; the trading volume of precious metals decreased by 2.71% to 307,045.75, and the open interest increased by 0.2% to 309,152; the trading volume of non - ferrous and new energy decreased by 1.33% to 875,230.25, and the open interest increased by 0.46% to 973,894 [6]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The report provides the implied volatility, 60 - day percentile of implied volatility, skew, and 60 - day percentile of skew for various commodity options, including corn, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, etc. For example, the implied volatility of corn is 9.97%, and the skew is 7.54% [12]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.61 Option Data for Each Commodity - For each commodity option (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), the report details the closing price, price change, remaining trading days, trading volume (including call and put trading volume, and total trading volume), trading volume PCR, open interest (including call and put open interest, and total open interest), open interest PCR, implied volatility, historical volatility (HV - 10 days and HV - 20 days), and skew of the main and secondary contracts, as well as the overall contract data [13 - 74].

陈 骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001 研究助理 靳旭媛 一般从业资格编号 ：S1060124070018 2026 年 3 月 1 日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 证券研究报告 A股策略周报： 布局"两会"窗口 证券分析师 1 ※ 核心观点|布局"两会"窗口 2 • 上周亚太股市、贵金属表现较好。上周美国PPI超预期攀升、关税扰动、地缘冲突持续压降风险偏好，金银等贵金属继续领涨，美股三大 股指下跌0%-2%，日韩股市在AI产业带动下表现靠前，A股节后资金交投活跃度上行，多数股指收涨，小盘红利风格表现占优，结构上， 钢铁、有色金属、基础化工等周期板块领涨，培育钻石、稀有金属精选、锗镓锑墨、稀土等概念表现靠前。另外，节后人民币汇率持续走 强，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率均升破6.87，创近三年新高，在此之下央行下调远期售汇风险准备金率，释放外汇政策回归中性信号。 • 海外方面，美国PPI攀升强化高利率预期，关税扰动、地缘冲突继续压降风险偏好。一是美国PPI升幅超预期。美国1月PPI同比升2.9%， 环比升0.5%，核心PPI同比升3.6%，环比升0.8%，均高于预期值，强化美联储维持高利率预期。二是 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to a resurgence of risk aversion, pushing gold prices above $5200 per ounce. The geopolitical situation, particularly the military actions between Israel and Iran, has disrupted market stability and triggered a "flight to safety" in precious metals [2][5] - The report emphasizes the resilience of the precious metals sector, driven by three key factors: escalating geopolitical risks, ongoing trade conflicts, and potential interest rate cuts. It suggests that March will be a critical period for negotiations between the U.S. and its major trading partners, which could significantly impact gold and silver prices [5] - The report also notes that industrial metals like copper and aluminum are experiencing price increases due to domestic stimulus policies and international risks, particularly from Iran. It indicates that the short-term outlook for these metals is positive, with expectations of price increases driven by geopolitical tensions and economic recovery [6] - The report identifies lithium and strategic metals as areas of significant investment potential, particularly due to supply disruptions and increasing demand. It highlights the importance of strategic metals like rare earths and tungsten, which are expected to see a revaluation in light of geopolitical tensions and supply chain concerns [7] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report indicates a shift in the short-term logic for precious metals from "policy games" to "war premiums," emphasizing the need to focus on the elasticity of gold stocks. The report maintains a positive outlook for gold and silver, driven by factors such as inflation, interest rate cuts, and geopolitical risks [5] - Specific stock recommendations include companies like Zhaojin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Shandong Gold Mining, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [5] Industrial Metals - The report notes that industrial metals are benefiting from domestic stimulus measures and rising geopolitical risks, with copper prices increasing by 2.6% and aluminum by 1.3% on the LME. It highlights the seasonal accumulation of copper and aluminum inventories, with significant year-on-year increases [6] - The report suggests that the long-term outlook for copper and aluminum remains positive, driven by global economic recovery and supply chain adjustments due to geopolitical factors [6] Energy and Strategic Metals - The report emphasizes the importance of lithium and other strategic metals, noting supply disruptions from Zimbabwe and the potential for price increases due to strong demand and geopolitical uncertainties. It highlights the strategic value of rare earths and tungsten, which are expected to see significant price appreciation [7] - Specific stock recommendations for lithium include Tianhua New Energy and Ganfeng Lithium, while for rare earths, companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth are highlighted as potential beneficiaries [7]

- The report introduces a style rotation solution, which includes a value-growth style rotation strategy and a large-small cap style rotation strategy. The value-growth style rotation strategy scores 6 for March 2026, indicating a higher score for the growth style[2][6] - The large-small cap style rotation strategy scores 2 for March 2026, indicating a higher score for the small cap style[2][8] - The industry rotation solution is constructed using four dimensions: macroeconomic indicators, mid-level fundamental indicators, micro-level technical indicators, and trading congestion indicators. The comprehensive score for the industry rotation strategy since 2017 shows an annualized return of 18.4%, with a benchmark annualized return of 4.9%, resulting in an excess annualized return of 13.5% and a monthly IC average of 12.1%[2][11][12] - The macroeconomic indicators divide the primary industries into five sectors: upstream cycle, midstream manufacturing, downstream consumption, TMT, and big finance. For March 2026, the macroeconomic growth dimension is in the "deepening recession/expansion slowdown" stage, and the liquidity dimension is in the "easing intensification/tightening slowdown" stage[15] - The fundamental indicators include historical prosperity, prosperity changes, and prosperity expectations. For March 2026, the top five industries ranked by fundamental indicators are non-ferrous metals, automobiles, electronics, non-bank finance, and machinery, while the bottom five are home appliances, real estate, construction, coal, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery[17] - The technical indicators include index momentum, leading stock momentum, and K-line patterns. For March 2026, the top five industries ranked by technical indicators are communication, national defense and military industry, basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and computers, while the bottom five are real estate, food and beverage, transportation, electricity and public utilities, and retail[20] - The congestion indicators include financing inflows, turnover rate, and transaction ratio. For March 2026, the top five industries with high congestion are media, petrochemicals, building materials, national defense and military industry, and non-ferrous metals, while the bottom five industries with low congestion are automobiles, textiles and apparel, non-bank finance, banking, and home appliances[21] - The comprehensive industry rotation solution combines the positive scores of the macro, fundamental, and technical dimensions, while negatively configuring the congestion factor. For March 2026, the top five recommended industries are communication, non-ferrous metals, electronics, automobiles, and national defense and military industry, while the bottom seven are real estate, construction, home appliances, coal, food and beverage, retail, and electricity and public utilities[25] Model Backtest Results - Value-growth style rotation strategy, comprehensive score: 6 for March 2026[6] - Large-small cap style rotation strategy, comprehensive score: 2 for March 2026[8] - Industry rotation strategy, annualized return: 18.4%, benchmark annualized return: 4.9%, excess annualized return: 13.5%, monthly IC average: 12.1%[12][13]

Market Trends - After the Spring Festival, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown a trend of oscillating upward, characterized by a "weak tech narrative and strong inflation narrative" similar to the "HALO trade" discussed overseas[2] - The market direction remains optimistic, but short-term fluctuations are expected as the Two Sessions approach, with historical data indicating a 90% win rate for the index in the two weeks prior to the sessions[3] - The U.S. tariff policy remains uncertain, but the continuous appreciation of the RMB may not pose a core contradiction in the short term[3] Economic Expectations - Economic and profit expectations are likely to evolve, with macroeconomic data showing significant divergence at the beginning of the year[2] - The high-frequency economic data in March is expected to exhibit upward volatility, influenced by the implementation of growth-stabilizing policies and the resumption of production[3] - Historical patterns suggest that economic data in March-April often experiences larger fluctuations compared to expectations, which could lead to market increases[3] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, may continue to strengthen the inflation narrative based on energy security, creating structural opportunities in sectors like gold, oil and gas, and military industries[2] - The market is expected to favor sectors with high entry barriers and reset costs, such as infrastructure and strategic resources, amidst rapid technological advancements in AI[5] Investment Strategies - Historical investment experiences indicate that bull markets in growth stocks (2009-2010, 2013, 2019-2021) are typically accompanied by stronger ROE, with previous bull markets that did not rely on profit realization being short-lived[2] - The report suggests a focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, military industry, and basic chemicals, which are expected to benefit from favorable policies and strong performance metrics[27]

Global Market Overview - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Nikkei 225 and A-shares leading gains; major commodity futures like gold, crude oil, copper, and aluminum saw slight increases[2] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.1%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.52% against the dollar[2] Commodity Insights - Brent crude oil prices rose above $72 per barrel, nearing the highest level since July of the previous year, driven by geopolitical tensions[8] - The overall commodity price rebound this year has been particularly strong for precious metals, indicating a shift in demand from traditional infrastructure to computing power and new energy sectors[8] Domestic Equity Market - As of February 27, 2026, the average daily trading volume in the domestic equity market was 24,244 billion RMB, up from 20,946 billion RMB previously[19] - Among the 31 sectors tracked, 25 sectors saw gains, with steel (+12.27%), non-ferrous metals (+9.77%), and basic chemicals (+7.15%) leading the way; media (-5.10%) and retail (-1.64%) sectors experienced the largest declines[19] Interest Rates and Currency Trends - The 1-year Chinese government bond yield rose by 0.23 basis points to 1.3168%, while the 10-year yield fell by 1.46 basis points to 1.7753%[12] - The US 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 10 basis points to 3.38%, and the 10-year yield fell by 11 basis points to 3.97%[12] Risk Factors - Key risks include geopolitical tensions escalating, potential deviations in weekly fund positions, uncertainties in tariff policies, and the impact of domestic price declines[2]

Group 1: AI Disruption Concerns - Nvidia's Q4 2025 earnings exceeded market expectations by 5.5%, yet its stock price fell over 8% in three trading days, marking the largest decline in three years[3] - Since November 2022, Nvidia's stock price has diverged from its EPS, indicating ongoing market concerns about AI disruption[3] - The capital expenditure of major tech companies remains high, with a projected total of $670 billion for 2026, reflecting a growth rate of over 60%[3] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Resilience - A-share companies have a higher proportion of tangible assets compared to their US counterparts, indicating stronger resilience against potential AI disruptions[4] - The manufacturing and materials sectors in China contribute a higher value-added percentage compared to other developed economies, enhancing their attractiveness to global investors[4] - In the US, heavy asset sectors like utilities, energy, and materials have significantly outperformed light asset sectors in Q4 2025, with revenue and profit exceeding expectations by over 5% and 15% respectively[3] Group 3: Resource Commodities and Geopolitical Factors - The US government is increasing its focus on strategic resources, as evidenced by the "Treasury Plan" and Zimbabwe's suspension of lithium exports, indicating a rising demand for key minerals[5] - Current US copper inventory is approximately 30% of annual consumption, suggesting room for growth compared to historical levels[5] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could lead to oil prices rising to $90 per barrel, which may reverse the downward trend in US inflation[6]

Core Views - The market is expected to experience limited index space and focus on structural trends in March, influenced by geopolitical factors and policy expectations surrounding the upcoming Two Sessions and the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][12][23] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the US-Iran conflict, is identified as a significant variable affecting A-shares, with potential implications for commodity prices and global macroeconomic logic [4][12][14] - The market style is anticipated to become more balanced, with small and mid-cap stocks likely to continue outperforming, driven by liquidity from financing and quantitative private equity [4][12][15] Industry and Sector Recommendations - Key sectors to focus on include non-ferrous metals (industrial metals, energy metals, and minor metals), basic chemicals, machinery (automation and engineering), power equipment (batteries, grid equipment, wind power), electronics (semiconductors), and public utilities (electricity) [4][5][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of cyclical price increases and the expansion of AI hardware as core investment themes for March [4][12][18] - The anticipated policy support for traditional infrastructure and consumer services is expected to catalyze investment opportunities in these sectors [4][12][18] Market Liquidity and Capital Supply - March is projected to see continued net inflows of incremental capital, with a focus on the dynamics between financing funds and ETF redemptions [4][12][15] - The macro liquidity environment is expected to remain stable and abundant, supported by the central bank's monetary policy stance and the upcoming Two Sessions [4][12][15] Economic and Profitability Outlook - Profit expectations have been adjusted upward, particularly in resource products, information technology, and midstream manufacturing sectors [5][12] - The report notes that the profitability growth rate for the entire A-share market and non-financial sectors for 2026 has been slightly revised upward, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [5][12]