Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how the Federal Reserve's monetary policy impacts emerging market stock markets, categorizing the external macro environment into four scenarios that influence market performance [2][4]. Group 1: Scenarios of Emerging Market Stock Performance - Scenario 1: During global monetary policy switching periods (e.g., initial or final stages of rate hikes/cuts), market expectations regarding the Fed's stance (hawkish/dovish) are crucial, with emerging market economic strength being less significant [5][24]. - Scenario 2: In periods of stable rate hikes/cuts, the sensitivity of the market to monetary policy decreases, and the economic expectations of emerging markets compared to the U.S. become key factors [9][25]. - Scenario 3: During global economic recessions or when recession expectations exist, emerging markets generally perform poorly [13][54]. - Scenario 4: In times of excessive liquidity, emerging market stocks typically perform well [15][62]. Group 2: Historical Review of Emerging Market Stock Performance - The article reviews emerging market stock performance from 2008 to 2025, highlighting key periods and their corresponding MSCI Emerging Markets Index movements [23][26]. - For instance, from January 2008 to February 2009, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell by 59.9% due to the global financial crisis, while from February 2009 to April 2010, it rebounded by 92.6% during a period of excessive liquidity [26]. - The performance during the stable rate hike period from February 2016 to January 2018 saw a 69.0% increase in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, driven by improving global economic conditions [46][48]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Emerging Markets Post-September Rate Cut - Following the September rate cut, three potential macro scenarios for emerging markets are outlined: 1. Continued mild economic cooling with no inflation rise, allowing for a sustained rate cut cycle [73]. 2. A rapid economic recovery post-rate cut, leading to a potential shift back to a hawkish stance by the Fed, which could pressure emerging markets [73][76]. 3. Risks of stagflation due to fluctuating tariffs impacting inflation, which could lead to downturns in both emerging markets and U.S. stocks [73][76]. - The article suggests that the likelihood of scenario 2 is higher, indicating that the best time for emerging market stock performance may have passed, while U.S. stocks could remain strong [76].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a strategic bullish outlook on gold, driven by a restructured global financial and political order, rather than traditional macroeconomic factors [4][9]. Research Context - The company initiated a strategic bullish view on gold at the beginning of 2023, with a report titled "Gold: A Century, A Decade, Next Year" released in December 2022 [5]. - Subsequent reports in May 2024, March 2025, and May 2025 further explored gold pricing logic and the dynamics driving gold price increases [5]. Latest Research Findings - The latest research focuses on what gold is pricing, introducing the "Implied Order Reconstruction Index" to address the limitations of traditional factors like real interest rates, inflation expectations, and the US dollar index in explaining gold's price surge [6]. - The "unconventional momentum" identified in the index reflects investor expectations regarding the restructuring of the global financial and political order, which has been the primary driver of gold prices since 2023 [7]. Future Outlook - The "Implied Order Reconstruction Index" remains the core driver of recent gold price increases, challenging the notion that traditional factors like central bank gold purchases or Federal Reserve rate cuts are responsible for the price rise [9]. - Recent geopolitical and economic instability, such as unrest in Indonesia and political turmoil in Nepal and Argentina, has contributed to fluctuations in the index, reinforcing the view that the core force driving gold prices is the expectation of order reconstruction [9]. - The index has approached and surpassed historical highs last seen in 1980, indicating potential for further price increases if it stabilizes above this level [9]. Asset Allocation Perspective - Gold's allocation value is significant, as even a 5% allocation can optimize the risk-return profile of a diversified asset portfolio [10]. - Gold is uniquely positioned to have low correlation with both US-dominated financial assets and commodities driven by Chinese demand, enhancing its appeal as a strategic asset [10]. - The company maintains a bullish stance on gold, asserting that the recent price breakthrough of $4,000 per ounce does not signify the end of the upward trend [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights three significant changes in the economic landscape for September, focusing on manufacturing investment growth, price indicators, and the current state of demand, suggesting a need for policy adjustments to stimulate demand [2]. GDP - The GDP growth rate for the third quarter is expected to be around 4.8%, with a cumulative growth rate of approximately 5.1% for the first three quarters [4][11]. - Key downward factors include a decline in industrial production, construction, real estate, and wholesale retail sectors, with retail sales growth expected to drop to around 3.2% in September [4][12]. Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to show a month-on-month increase of about 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of around -0.2% in September [5][13]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decrease by approximately -0.2% month-on-month but improve from -2.9% to -2.5% year-on-year [5][14]. Production - Industrial production growth is anticipated to be around 6.0% in September, with strong performance in the manufacturing sector driven by increased production and external demand [15]. Foreign Trade - Exports are expected to grow by about 6% year-on-year in September, supported by low base effects and resilient non-U.S. demand [16]. - Imports are projected to increase by around 1%, influenced by rising commodity prices and stable export performance [17]. Fixed Asset Investment - Cumulative fixed asset investment growth is expected to decline to around -0.2% for the first nine months, with manufacturing investment growth dropping to 4.0% and real estate investment falling to -13.2% [18]. Real Estate Sales - Real estate sales are projected to have a growth rate of approximately 0% in September, with recent policy adjustments in major cities potentially leading to a slight recovery in sales [7][19]. Retail Sales - Retail sales growth is expected to be around 3.2% in September, influenced by high base effects and changes in consumer behavior [21][22]. Financial Indicators - New social financing is estimated at 3 trillion yuan in September, with a year-on-year decrease of 610 billion yuan, while M2 growth is projected at around 8.4% [8][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant global events during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, highlighting the performance of major asset prices, including a notable rise in gold prices and the implications of the U.S. government shutdown [2][4]. Group 1: Overseas Asset Performance - During the holiday period, global stock indices saw comprehensive gains, with the Nikkei 225, KOSPI, and European stocks leading the increases, rising by 6.7%, 3.6%, and 2.2% respectively [15][16]. - Global 10-year government bond yields increased, with yields for French, British, American, Japanese, and Italian bonds rising by 3.2bps, 2.1bps, 2.0bps, 1.5bps, and 0.6bps respectively [16]. - Precious metals experienced significant price increases, while oil prices declined, with spot silver and gold rising by 5.2% and 3.2% respectively, and Brent and WTI crude oil prices falling by 2.3% and 1.1% [16]. - The Japanese yen depreciated significantly, dropping by 1.6% against major currencies during the same period [16]. Group 2: Key Events - The U.S. federal government experienced a shutdown for the first time in seven years due to a failure to pass a temporary funding bill, affecting numerous federal employees and halting economic data releases [6][27]. - High-profile political changes occurred in Japan, with former Minister of Economic Security, Sanae Takaichi, winning the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election, potentially becoming Japan's first female Prime Minister [7][31]. - Gold prices surged, with COMEX gold futures reaching $4000 per ounce for the first time, driven by factors such as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties [4][34]. - OPEC+ announced a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November, reflecting a compromise between Saudi Arabia and Russia amid a backdrop of global economic stability [9][41]. - French Prime Minister Le Cornu resigned after less than a month in office, highlighting political instability in France, which has led to increased borrowing costs and concerns over fiscal reforms [10][43]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve faces challenges in determining interest rate paths due to the government shutdown, which has delayed key economic data releases [12][46].

Group 1: National Day Consumption - Travel remains resilient, but growth rate slows compared to the May Day holiday, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in cross-regional personnel flow during the first five days of the holiday, down from 7.9% during the May Day holiday [2][4] - The growth rate for long-distance travel by rail and civil aviation is low, both below 4%, while waterway and outbound travel show higher growth rates, with waterway passenger transport up 8.7% and international flights up 11.7% [4][17] - Retail sales growth is low at 3.3% year-on-year, indicating potential pressure on October's retail sales, with significant growth in home appliances and green food consumption [5][20][22] - Food prices remain stable, while service prices show mixed trends, with airfares rising by 9.2% and hotel prices varying significantly between first-tier and third/fourth-tier cities [6][24][25] - The film box office is down 19.2% year-on-year, potentially due to scheduling issues, despite some popular films performing well in previous months [7][27] Group 2: Weekly Economic Observation - The Huachuang macroeconomic WEI index has declined to 6.65%, down 2.12 percentage points from the previous week, but remains at a high level [29] - Durable goods consumption shows a decline in passenger car retail, with a year-on-year decrease of 2% reported [10][34] - Subway passenger transport growth has turned negative, with a 9.5% year-on-year decline reported in early October [11][34] - Oil prices have dropped significantly, with WTI crude oil at $61.69 per barrel, down 6.1% [12][52] - The new policy financial tool of 500 billion yuan is being actively promoted to support project capital [54][55]

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy Tracking - The Federal Reserve has restarted its rate cut cycle, lowering rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25% in September 2025, aligning with market expectations. The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its rates, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has signaled a more hawkish stance by opposing the current rate policy and announcing a reduction in ETF and REIT holdings [2][9][11] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates three times by the end of 2025, with a projected benchmark rate of approximately 3.75% by then. The ECB's rate cut expectations have diminished, with a current forecast suggesting no further cuts this year. The BOJ is anticipated to raise rates once by the end of the year [3][15][16] - In China, nominal interest rates have risen from 1.7% at the end of July to 1.88% by late September 2025, with real interest rates also increasing from 3.1% to 3.3% during the same period, placing China among the higher real interest rates globally [19][21] Group 2: Global Liquidity Tracking - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction has led to significant liquidity tightening, with a reduction of $357.7 billion in reserves since the start of the tapering process. The overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) balance has dropped sharply to $29.2 billion, indicating a near exhaustion of this liquidity tool [4][23] - The SOFR-EFFR spread has turned positive, reflecting a tightening liquidity environment for non-bank institutions. The spread reached a high of 0.18%, indicating that borrowing costs for these institutions have increased significantly [5][31] - U.S. Treasury liquidity has deteriorated, with the bid-ask spread for 10-year Treasuries fluctuating between 0.19 and 0.58 basis points, while credit spreads remain low, suggesting a mixed liquidity environment across different asset classes [6][37][40]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for September shows a slight recovery, indicating improved production activity, with the production index rising to 51.9% from 50.8% in the previous month [2][4][11]. Group 1: Production Strengthening - The overall PMI index for September is 49.8%, up from 49.4% in August, primarily driven by a rebound in production [4][9]. - The recovery in production is attributed to stronger performance in the midstream and downstream sectors, with the midstream equipment manufacturing PMI reaching 51.9% and the consumer goods PMI at 50.6% [4][9]. - Factors contributing to this recovery include inventory replenishment and strong external demand, as indicated by a global manufacturing PMI increase to 50.9% in August and a 7.3% year-on-year growth in port container throughput in September [4][9]. Group 2: Data Insights - The September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, with specific indices showing: production index at 51.9%, new orders index at 49.7%, new export orders index at 47.8%, employment index at 48.5%, and raw material inventory index at 48.5% [2][11]. - The price index shows a decline, with the PMI output price index at 48.2%, continuing below the neutral line for 16 consecutive months [3][12]. - The construction sector's PMI is at 49.3%, indicating a slight increase from the previous month but still below last year's level, while the service sector remains in the expansion zone with a PMI of 50.1% [3][14]. Group 3: Expectations and Comprehensive Output - The manufacturing activity expectation index rose to 54.1% in September, reflecting increased confidence among businesses, particularly in sectors like food processing and automotive [3][14]. - The comprehensive PMI output index for September is 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in production activities across sectors [3][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the announcement made by Trump regarding the imposition of new tariffs on various goods starting October 1, with rates ranging from 25% to 100% [2][4]. Group 1: New Industry Tariffs and Import Scale - Trump announced tariffs on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks, and related goods at 50%, upholstered furniture at 30%, patented and branded drugs at 100% (with exemptions for certain pharmaceutical companies), and heavy trucks at 25% [5][15]. - The estimated total import value for these four categories in 2024 is $125.06 billion, accounting for 3.8% of total U.S. imports, with $10.16 billion coming from China, representing 8.1% of the total [5][16]. - The effective tariff rate on U.S. imports is projected to rise from 2.3% at the end of 2024 to 9.6% by July 2025, marking the highest level since 1947 [4][11]. Group 2: Economic Data Review and Tracking - Upcoming important economic data includes the ADP employment numbers, S&P manufacturing PMI final value, and ISM manufacturing PMI on October 1, followed by the non-farm payroll report on October 3 [6][17]. - Recent economic indicators show a decline in the WEI index, while mortgage loan rates have decreased, leading to a significant increase in mortgage applications [7][25]. - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. have decreased, indicating a potential improvement in the labor market [29]. Group 3: Financial Conditions and Market Trends - Financial conditions in the U.S. have marginally improved over the past two weeks, while those in the Eurozone have tightened [35]. - The offshore dollar liquidity has shown signs of tightening, particularly in the euro to dollar exchange [37]. - The credit spreads for U.S. investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds have widened, reflecting changing market conditions [40].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent implementation of growth stabilization plans across various industries in China, highlighting the focus on capacity management and encouraging development in safety, new technologies, and international expansion [2][10]. Group 1: Capacity Management - The photovoltaic industry is guided to orderly layout and manage capacity, emphasizing the integration of investment, finance, and safety policies [2]. - The steel industry is implementing precise control over capacity and production, revising capacity replacement measures, and continuing production reduction policies to support advanced enterprises while phasing out inefficient capacities [2]. - In the building materials sector, strict controls on cement and glass production capacity are enforced, prohibiting new capacity and requiring replacement plans for existing projects by the end of 2025 [2][20]. - The petrochemical industry is focusing on scientific control of major project construction, limiting new refining capacity, and managing the scale and timing of new ethylene and paraxylene capacities to prevent overcapacity risks [2][21]. - The non-ferrous metals sector is advised to layout projects like alumina and copper smelting scientifically to avoid redundant low-level construction [3]. - The coal power sector is advancing the renovation of coal power plants and systematically phasing out outdated capacities [4]. Group 2: Encouraged Development Directions - In the safety sector, there is a focus on the exploration and technological breakthroughs in key non-ferrous mineral resources, including a new round of mining exploration strategies [5]. - The automotive industry is accelerating the application of the Beidou system and promoting the approval of L3 level vehicle production [6]. - The electronic information manufacturing sector is pushing for breakthroughs in 5G/6G key components and supporting innovation in integrated circuits and advanced computing [6]. - The high-end petrochemical sector is supporting the development of electronic chemicals and high-performance materials [6]. Group 3: Encouragement for International Expansion - The electronic information manufacturing sector is guided to orderly expand overseas, optimizing international capacity layout [7]. - The automotive industry is encouraged to develop overseas layouts and improve export credit insurance services [8]. - The power equipment sector is actively exploring international markets [9]. - The petrochemical sector is advancing overseas resource development and expanding export channels for petrochemical products [10]. - The light industry is supporting leading enterprises in accelerating global brand development [10].

Core Viewpoints - The central bank has removed the phrase "increase the implementation of incremental policies" and emphasized "ensuring the execution of various monetary policy measures to fully release policy effects," indicating that the phase of the most accommodative monetary policy has passed [3][6] - There is no strong necessity for interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions to stimulate credit, as previous credit flows have primarily gone to the production side, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances in a context of insufficient demand [3][6] - The behavior of small and medium-sized banks is noteworthy, with their bond investment accounting for approximately 52% of total fund utilization over the past year, compared to an average of about 25% from 2017 to 2022 [3][6] Summary of Changes and Continuities in Monetary Policy - In economic assessment, the phrase "China's economic risks and challenges" has been removed, reflecting a more optimistic view [5][12] - The policy tone has shifted to emphasize "maintaining continuity and stability in policies while enhancing flexibility and predictability," contrasting with previous statements that focused on utilizing existing policies and implementing new ones [5][12] - Specific policy details have been adjusted to focus on the execution of monetary policy measures and the release of policy effects, moving away from previous language about flexibility in policy implementation [5][12] - Structural tools have been reinforced to support small and micro enterprises and stabilize foreign trade, indicating a targeted approach to monetary policy [5][12] Understanding Current Monetary Policy - The assessment that the phase of the most accommodative monetary policy has passed is supported by three reasons: a focus on releasing prior policy effects, a lack of necessity for stimulating credit through rate cuts in the context of insufficient demand, and potential regulatory constraints on leveraging in the equity market [6][14] - Attention is drawn to the process of small and medium-sized banks focusing on their core responsibilities, with a significant increase in bond investments that may pose risks if not managed properly [6][15] - Structural tools for financial support should concentrate on technological innovation, boosting consumption, stabilizing foreign trade, and supporting small and micro enterprises, indicating a shift towards more targeted financial interventions [6][15]