Group 1 - The recent volatility of the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) has been significant, with a rapid transition from the strong-side convertibility guarantee to the weak-side guarantee occurring in just 1.3 months, which is unusually fast compared to historical instances [1][6][99] - The HKD's depreciation occurred despite a weakening US dollar, which is atypical as previous transitions to the weak-side guarantee usually happened during a strong dollar period [2][6][99] - The 12-month forward exchange rate for HKD briefly fell below 7.75, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities if the weak-side guarantee is triggered [1][6][99] Group 2 - The initial trigger for the strong-side guarantee in early May was due to a liquidity shortage caused by significant foreign capital inflows, large dividends from Hong Kong stocks, and a surge in fundraising activities [2][35][99] - Since the beginning of the year, cumulative inflows through the Stock Connect have reached 638.6 billion HKD, and foreign capital tracked by EPFR has increased by 5.1 million USD [2][35][99] - The recent approach to the weak-side guarantee is primarily driven by market carry trades following a substantial liquidity release, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) injecting 129.4 billion HKD into the market [2][47][99] Group 3 - If the weak-side guarantee is triggered again, the HKMA is expected to maintain a relatively restrained approach to tightening HKD liquidity, potentially through the issuance of Exchange Fund Bills and Notes (EFBN) [3][68][100] - The current low interest rate environment may benefit the Hong Kong economy, as lower rates could stimulate investment and support the housing market [3][68][90] - Historical data suggests that a weaker HKD and lower interest rates could positively impact the Hong Kong stock market, as seen in previous periods of similar conditions [3][68][90]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭 联系人| 贾东旭 摘要 事件：6月13日，央行公布2025年5月中国金融数据，信贷余额同比下行0.1个百分点至7.1%，社融存量同比持平于至8.7%，M2同比下行0.1个百 分点至7.9% 。 增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 常规跟踪：M1同比回暖。 5月新增信贷6200亿，同比少增3300亿，拖累仍主要源于企业中长贷。 居民部门贷款新增540亿，同比少增217亿，其中短贷减少208亿，同比多 减451亿，中长贷新增746亿，同比多增232亿。企业部门方面，票据融资新增746亿，同比少增2826亿，短期贷款新增1100亿，同比增加2300 亿。非银贷款新增589亿，同比多增226亿。 5月新增社融22871亿，同比多增2248亿，主要源于政府债券。 人民币贷款新增5960亿，同比少增2237亿。政府债券新增14633亿，同比多增 2367亿。企业债券新增1496亿，同比多增1211亿。委托贷款减少167亿，同比多减158亿，信托贷款新增173亿，同比少增51亿，未贴现汇票减少 1162亿，同比少减169亿。 5月M2同比下行0.1个百分点至7. ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the transition into a "new phase" of transformation and a "reform period" for policies, highlighting external shocks as either obstacles or opportunities [5] - It emphasizes the end of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, questioning which aspects are mere storytelling versus actual trends [8] - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is identified as a major contradiction for the second half of the year, with a focus on inflation trends [9] Deep Dive Topics - The mid-year outlook indicates a significant shift in policy dynamics, with a focus on how "anti-involution" and the service industry can find solutions [5] - The macro monthly report anticipates changes in policies related to tariffs, tax cuts, and monetary policy, particularly in June [11] - The article on inbound tourism highlights the rapid increase in countries eligible for visa-free entry, reflecting a broader trend of opening up [15] Economic Data Insights - The actual GDP year-on-year growth rates are projected to be 5.2% for 2023 and 5.0% for 2024, with nominal GDP growth rates of 4.7% and 4.2% respectively [6] - Fixed asset investment is expected to show a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.0% in 2023, with a slight increase to 3.2% in 2024 [6] - The article notes a significant decline in real estate investment, projected at -10.6% for 2024 [6] Trade and Employment Insights - The article discusses the shift in export strategies, moving from emerging markets to a focus on the U.S. market [17] - It highlights the strong performance of U.S. non-farm employment, which exceeded expectations [22] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations are noted, with significant trade deficits reported for various countries, including a $295.4 billion deficit with China [23] Policy and Market Trends - The article suggests that new policy tools for stabilizing growth are anticipated, with a focus on the potential emergence of innovative financial instruments [14] - The domestic shipping rates on the U.S.-West Coast are reported to be increasing, indicating a recovery in shipping prices [24] - The communication between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump emphasizes the importance of maintaining a cooperative relationship amid ongoing trade discussions [27][28]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight decrease in blast furnace operating rates, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 2.1% [2][5] - The chemical chain shows resilience, with soda ash operating rates up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, while PTA and polyester filament remain stable [2][15] - The automotive sector experiences a significant decline in operating rates, down 4.4 percentage points year-on-year to 6.7% [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows weak performance, with nationwide grinding operating rates slightly down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 1.9% [2][25] - Cement shipment rates have increased by 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while asphalt operating rates have seen a small rise of 0.8 percentage points to 4.3% [2][25] Group 3: Downstream Demand - New housing transactions have significantly decreased, with average daily transaction area down 28.2% year-on-year [2][47] - Railway freight volume related to domestic demand has weakened, down 2.4% year-on-year, while port cargo throughput and container throughput have also declined [2][58] - The CCFI composite index has rebounded significantly, up 3.3% month-on-month, with a notable increase in freight rates on the US West Coast, up 9.6% [2][77] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices show divergence, with pork and egg prices down 0.3% and 0.9% respectively, while vegetable and fruit prices are up 1.1% each [3][89] - The South China industrial product price index has decreased by 0.2%, with energy and chemical prices down 0.4% and metal prices down 0.1% [3][100] Group 5: Market Insights - The recovery of inbound tourism is strong, with significant increases in international flight numbers and travel orders, particularly from Southeast Asia [115] - The easing of visa policies and cultural exports are effectively stimulating inbound demand, with a notable increase in visitors from Southeast Asia [116][117] - The potential for growth in inbound tourism is substantial, as China's service industry remains relatively closed compared to international standards [118]

Group 1 - The tourism market is experiencing a strong recovery, with inbound tourism showing particularly robust growth, as evidenced by flight execution and travel orders. In 2024, domestic travel has rebounded to 56.1% of historical trends, while inbound tourism has reached 81.9% of historical trends, with travel exports recovering to 138% of 2019 levels [2][10][83] - From the perspective of visitor demographics, tourists from Southeast Asia are showing significant recovery in inbound tourism, while recovery from regions like North America is slower. In 2024, the proportion of tourists from Southeast Asia in Shanghai increased to 22.5%, up 6.8 percentage points from 2023, while the proportion from North America decreased by 2 percentage points [2][17][83] - The recovery pace of China's inbound tourism market is accelerating after 2024, indicating that the tourism market's recovery is not solely dependent on scale expansion. By April 2025, inbound tourist numbers in Shanghai reached 115.3% of the 2019 average, surpassing countries like Thailand and Singapore [3][23][83] Group 2 - The increase in inbound tourism is attributed to the facilitation of visa policies and cultural exports, which effectively stimulate inbound demand. In 2024, the number of foreign visitors entering China through visa exemptions reached 20.12 million, a year-on-year increase of 112.3% [4][26][84] - Historical examples show that optimizing visa policies can significantly release inbound tourism demand. For instance, Japan's gradual relaxation of visa policies from 2013 led to a substantial increase in inbound visitors, from 8.358 million in 2012 to 31.882 million in 2019 [4][34][84] Group 3 - The current low export share of travel and entertainment services in China's GDP indicates significant potential for growth, as the service sector has been relatively closed off. In 2024, travel exports accounted for only 0.1% of GDP, compared to a global average of 1.6% [6][50][61] - The Chinese government is increasing its focus on opening up the service sector, which is expected to release substantial demand for inbound tourism. Recent policies emphasize the importance of service sector openness, which could lead to sustained growth in inbound tourism over the next decade [6][61][66]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in global macroeconomic narratives from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism," driven by factors such as tariff impacts, inflation expectations, and the implementation of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" [2][8]. Group 1: Narrative Shift - The global macroeconomic narrative has transitioned from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism" in the first half of 2025, influenced by tariff disruptions and economic uncertainties [3][4]. - In early 2025, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained above the neutral level of 50 for three consecutive months, indicating resilience in industrial production, but fell below 50 in April [2][8]. - The IMF revised its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January, with the U.S. forecast lowered from 2.7% to 1.8% [2][23]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs and Legislation - The average tariff rate in the U.S. rose significantly from 2.4% at the end of 2024 to around 16% by May 2025, marking the highest level since World War II [4][54]. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" primarily extends existing tax cuts, which may have limited economic stimulation effects, while increasing long-term debt supply pressure due to higher deficits [4][84]. - The judicial challenges to tariffs may disrupt trade negotiations, with significant uncertainty surrounding the outcomes and potential tariff adjustments [61][62]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Inflation - The article highlights a potential paradigm shift where U.S. dollar-denominated assets may no longer be viewed as "safe assets," with inflationary pressures expected to rise alongside economic slowdown risks [5][6]. - Inflation is anticipated to rebound, with Bloomberg consensus predicting PCE inflation to peak at 3.1% and core PCE at 3.3% by the end of 2025 [5][71]. - The article notes that the inflation effects of tariffs have begun to manifest, with retail prices showing significant increases following tariff implementations [70][71].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated launch of new policy financial tools aimed at stabilizing economic growth, highlighting the potential funding directions and the lessons learned from previous rounds of such tools [2][45]. Group 1: Short-term Growth Stabilization Tools - The Politburo meeting in April outlined new macroeconomic policies, with monetary policy measures implemented in early May and continued active government bond issuance [3][46]. - New policy financial tools are expected to be introduced by the end of June, supported by the National Development and Reform Commission's guidance and a stable economic foundation [3][9]. - Local governments have begun preparing projects and holding policy briefings to align with the new financial tools, focusing on sectors like digital economy, artificial intelligence, and water conservancy projects [3][18]. Group 2: Characteristics and Usage of Policy Financial Tools - The first round of policy financial tools (2015-2017) involved "special construction bonds," which raised approximately 2 trillion yuan to support major projects, with a focus on agriculture, urban infrastructure, and manufacturing [4][48]. - The second round in 2022 included policy development financial tools that complemented major project capital needs, with an initial allocation of 300 billion yuan, later increased to 740 billion yuan [4][21]. - These tools exhibit a strong "leverage" effect, enabling the mobilization of additional credit or social capital, while also providing lower interest rates through fiscal subsidies to alleviate local government debt burdens [4][27]. Group 3: Innovations in New Policy Financial Tools - The new policy financial tools will emphasize support for technological innovation, particularly in the digital economy and artificial intelligence, marking a significant shift from previous rounds [5][31]. - Expanding consumer spending is also a potential focus area, aligning with the central bank's new initiatives to enhance service consumption and elderly care financing [6][33]. - Traditional investment areas, such as large-scale infrastructure projects, will remain a priority, particularly in sectors with high social benefits like water conservancy and transportation [6][39].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of policy initiatives in enhancing economic growth and environmental protection, particularly through data sharing and ecological compensation mechanisms [2][3][5]. Group 2 - On June 5, President Xi Jinping and President Trump discussed the importance of maintaining a strong economic relationship between China and the U.S., emphasizing mutual respect and cooperation [2]. - The introduction of the "Regulations on Government Data Sharing" aims to improve the efficiency of government services and digital governance by promoting orderly data sharing and breaking down data silos [3][4]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced a unified horizontal ecological compensation mechanism focusing on the Yangtze and Yellow River basins, which will allocate compensation funds based on water quality assessments [5][6]. - The "Opinions on Further Improving the Horizontal Ecological Protection Compensation Mechanism" outlines seven key tasks to attract more social capital into ecological civilization construction, including establishing compensation mechanisms and expanding compensation areas [7][8]. - The Ministry of Finance announced support for 20 cities to implement urban renewal projects, with a total expected subsidy exceeding 20 billion yuan, aimed at improving urban infrastructure and living conditions [9]. - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security initiated a pilot program to integrate human resources services with the manufacturing industry, focusing on establishing service standards and combating illegal practices [10][11].

Core Viewpoints - The improvement in consumer demand stabilizes the core CPI, but supply-side factors significantly suppress inflation readings [3][68] Group 1: Key Features of Core CPI Stabilization - Feature 1: The core commodity PPI shows a significant rebound, primarily due to improved demand and a lack of further tariff impacts. In May, the core commodity PPI increased by 0.3 percentage points to -1.4% [3][68] - Feature 2: Consumption promotion policies combined with rising gold prices lead to an increase in core commodity CPI. In May, the core commodity CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2% [4][19] - Feature 3: The increase in holiday days in May allows for a more substantial release of service demand, pushing the core service CPI higher. The service CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 0.5% in May [4][22] Group 2: Outlook and Regular Tracking - The combination of policy reinforcement and recovery in domestic demand is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, but supply-side changes must be monitored for their impact on price readings [5][33] - The overall CPI in May was -0.1%, slightly better than market expectations, with food supply showing a mixed performance [5][27] - The non-food CPI saw improvements in transportation and communication, while fuel prices for transportation significantly declined [51][71]

Core Viewpoint - The main contradiction in the US economy for the second half of the year revolves around tariff data, with a short-term focus on the direction of inflation [2]. Tariff Status and Economic Effects - After the May 12 US-China agreement, global trade uncertainty has decreased but remains at historically high levels, with the average US import tariff rate around 16% and China's rate at 27%. The suspension periods for US tariffs on China will end on July 9 and August 12 [2]. - The sectors with the highest US import tariffs as of the end of May include clothing and metals, with slow progress in tariff negotiations with other economies [2]. - The economic effects of tariffs on inflation and growth are expected to manifest over time. A surge in US container bookings indicates a new round of "import grabbing," but this may be hindered by inventory accumulation and weakening domestic demand as tariff suspensions approach [2]. - Tariffs have already begun to exert upward pressure on US inflation, although the effect is not yet significant. A potential inflationary period may occur in Q3 and Q4 [2]. - Indicators such as manufacturing PMI, capital expenditure willingness, and real estate sales suggest weaker private investment, while consumer purchasing intentions have declined despite a temporary boost in household income [2]. - Employment data, including unemployment claims, show signs of deterioration, raising concerns about rising unemployment rates [2]. Dynamic Economic Impact - The impact of tariffs on the economy may shift from "stagflation" to "slowdown," depending on how tariff conflicts evolve. In the next 1-2 quarters, the market may grapple with issues of stagnation versus inflation and whether to expect a slowdown or recession [3]. - By Q4 of this year, if the rate of price increases slows while economic downturns persist, the main contradictions in economic fundamentals, asset classes, and policies may transition from "stagflation" to "slowdown," with the possibility of "recession panic" [3]. Global Trade Predictions - The United Nations has revised its predictions for global trade growth rates, with a forecast of 1.5% growth in trade volume for Q2 2025, driven primarily by industrial production data [4][5]. Sector-Specific Tariff Data - As of May 2025, the highest effective import tariff rates in the US are in the textile and clothing manufacturing sectors, reaching 52.8% and 52.6%, respectively. In contrast, sectors like oil, coal, and chemicals have significantly lower tariff rates [6]. Retail Price Trends - Since March, US retail prices have increased significantly, reflecting retailers' proactive price hikes following tariff impositions. However, prices for goods from Mexico have been declining since April, indicating expectations surrounding tariff negotiations [11][12]. - A survey by the Richmond Fed indicated that 72% of surveyed companies have taken action in response to tariffs, with a majority planning to raise prices [14][15]. Investment Implications - The impact of tariffs on US investment is expected to be more pronounced than on consumer spending, as the proportion of private investment reliant on imports is significantly higher (38%) compared to consumer spending (9%) [16].