Core Viewpoint - The role of "export grabbing" is shifting from emerging markets to the U.S. [3][51] - In May, exports fell year-on-year due to a decline in "export grabbing" and a high base effect from the previous year, with a decrease of 3.3 percentage points to 4.8% [3][51] - Exports to ASEAN and India showed significant declines, indicating a retreat from previous "export grabbing" trends in emerging economies [3][51] Export Analysis - The old clues of "export grabbing" through emerging countries are declining, with midstream manufacturing exports showing a marginal decrease and energy resource exports declining significantly [3][15] - In May, exports of midstream manufacturing and energy resources fell from 7.4% and 1.3% in April to 6.3% and -3.5%, respectively [3][15] - There are emerging signs of "export grabbing" towards the U.S., with specific products like toys and clothing showing recovery in export growth [4][19] Future Outlook - In June, the focus is expected to shift from "export grabbing" in emerging economies to the U.S., with overall export growth likely to receive some support [4][27] - Three indicators suggest continued "export grabbing": positive year-on-year growth in processing trade imports, a surge in container bookings from the U.S., and rising prices for small commodities from Yiwu [4][27] Import Analysis - In May, import growth fell by 3.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in bulk commodity imports [6][54] - Specific imports such as copper, crude oil, and iron ore showed significant declines, reflecting a notable drop in domestic investment demand, particularly in traditional infrastructure [6][54] - Mechanical and electrical product imports saw a slight recovery, increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 5.5% [6][54] Regional Export Trends - Exports to major economies showed a general decline, with exports to the U.S. dropping significantly [5][38] - Exports to non-U.S. developed countries, such as the UK and the EU, saw some recovery, while exports to emerging economies also declined [5][38] - Notably, exports to Africa increased, contrasting with declines in exports to Latin America and ASEAN [5][38]

Core Viewpoints - The improvement in consumer demand stabilizes the core CPI, but supply-side factors significantly suppress inflation readings [2][68] Group 1: Characteristics of Core CPI Stabilization - Characteristic 1: Core commodity PPI shows a notable rebound, primarily due to improved demand and a lack of further tariff impacts. In May, the core commodity PPI increased by 0.3 percentage points to -1.4%. This is attributed to the sustained effects of consumption-boosting policies and a moderation in tariff impacts on prices [2][68] - Characteristic 2: Consumption promotion policies combined with rising gold prices lead to an increase in core commodity CPI. In May, the core commodity CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, supported by increased consumer demand and a 40.1% rise in gold jewelry prices [3][18] - Characteristic 3: The increase in holiday days in May allowed for more substantial service demand release, positively impacting core service CPI, which rose by 0.2 percentage points to 0.5% [3][21] Group 2: Future Outlook - The combination of policy reinforcement and recovery in domestic demand is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, although supply-side changes may still impose constraints on price readings [4][32] - The focus on boosting service consumption is likely to improve core service CPI further, while the ongoing "old-for-new" policy may provide significant support to core commodity CPI and PPI [4][70] Group 3: Regular Tracking - The overall CPI in May was -0.1%, slightly better than market expectations, with food supply showing a mixed performance. Fresh fruit and fish prices increased due to supply reductions, while seasonal vegetables saw a price drop [5][26] - Non-food CPI showed improvement in transportation and communication, while fuel prices for transportation saw a significant decline [50][71] - Service CPI in May reflected a recovery in demand, with core service CPI performing better than in previous years, indicating a positive trend in the service sector [58][71]

沉星月启：产业" 蜕变"vs政策 "革新"。 转型进入"新阶段"，面临的"新问题"。 2022年以来，转型进入"新阶段"，以地产为代表的传统链条对经济的贡献 出现趋势性下行，经济指标表现分化的同时，产业"冰火两重天"的情况常见。转型"新阶段"，压力更集中在终端 需求，导致PPI承压的同时CPI表现更弱，产能过剩领域转至中下游；更多供给转向海外的过程中，外贸板块内卷 更甚。 文 | 赵伟、屠强、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 屠强 摘要 转型新阶段，传统政策框架有效性下降，政策"革新"全面启动。 居、企业和地方政府在经历报表冲击的同时，不 同主体间互相影响、修复过程慢于过往周期。传统宏观调控手段的传导机制异化，政策"革新"必要性上升。2024 年9月底以来，政策框架全面优化启动；总量政策空间打开、结构性政策的针对性增强，新阶段的"供给侧改革"呼 之欲出。 产业"蜕变"已成"星火燎原"之势，居民信心筑底现象已现。 历经十余年，新动能占比已"初具规模"，高技术产业 在工业中占比达16.3%，渐成星火燎原之势；近两年悦己消费、体验消费等新消费形式不断涌出。2025年以来，节 假日居民出行意愿等指标，则显示居民短周期信心的 ...

大类资产&海外事件&数据：中美第二轮贸易谈判将启，美国非农就业强于预期 海外市场多数上涨，美债利率大幅上行。 当周，海外多数上涨，纳指上涨2.2%，仅日经225下跌0.6%。 10Y美债收益率上行10bp至4.51%；美元指数下跌0.2%至99.2，离岸人民币小幅升值。WTI原油大涨6.2% 至64.6美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨0.6%至3308.2美元/盎司。 中美将启动第二轮贸易谈判。 特朗普6月6日宣布，将于6月9日在伦敦与中方开启第二轮贸易谈判，或重 点讨论协议到期后的关税走廊及调整机制、关键矿产出口恢复等问题。美国谈判代表将包括财政部长贝 森特、商务部长卢特尼克、贸易代表格里尔。 5月美国非农就业强于预期，欧央行6月降息25BP。 美国5月非农新增就业13.9万人，市场预期12.6万人。 失业率维持于4.2%，但数据背后就业市场仍存在走弱迹象；5月美国ISM制造业PMI回落至48.5；欧央行6 月会议降息25BP，拉加德表示降息周期即将结束。 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事 ...

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 美国财政可持续性问题的发酵、日债收益率快速上行等，对市场也造成了阶段性扰动。 1）4月以来，市 场对美债可持续性问题高度关注，减支不及预期、拍卖需求走弱等，均导致美国"股债汇三杀"。2）受寿 险需求走弱等影响，日债利率大幅上行，也对美债等产生了外溢效应。 （二）5月国内市场的焦点？经济步入新旧结构"转换期"，政策组合拳也开始发力 国内方面，经济正步入"旧力量"退坡、"新力量"蓄势的"转换期"。 经济开局良好，但开始出现修复放缓 迹象。结构上"旧力量"在退坡，消费以旧换新放缓、设备更新周期接近结束、房地产修复速度也放缓。 但"新力量"在蓄势，服务业投资回补，地产供给压力也边际好转。 同时，"一揽子金融政策"新闻发布会提振信心，财政也展现出对经济的有力支撑。 一方面，5月7日，央 行、金监局、证监会联合发布会上超预期降准等政策，或在响应政治局会议部署，政策组合拳开始发 力。另一方面，4月广义财政支出增速升至12.9%，对经济形成有力支撑。 （三）6月宏观聚焦的关键？ 海外关注关税等政策变化的不确定性，国内静待宽财政"续力" 6月，海外市场关注关税政策、减税法 ...

Key Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of "disappearing" inventory in the U.S. economy, highlighting that despite significant imports, inventory accumulation has not been substantial [5][17] - It also addresses the challenges faced by the unemployment insurance system in better supporting unemployed individuals [6] Group 1: Hot Topics - The U.S. economy is experiencing a significant increase in imports, yet the expected inventory buildup is not occurring, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [5][17] - The article explores how unemployment insurance can be improved to better protect unemployed groups, drawing on both domestic and international experiences [6] Group 2: High-Frequency Tracking - The May PMI data indicates a deepening divergence between domestic and international demand, with improvements noted in consumer goods and equipment manufacturing sectors [8] - The legal challenges surrounding the legitimacy of Trump's tariffs are highlighted, indicating potential implications for trade policies [12] - The article emphasizes the importance of high-quality cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative, focusing on infrastructure and market integration [14]

Group 1: High-Quality Belt and Road Initiative - The Chinese government aims to discuss a high-quality action plan for the Belt and Road Initiative with ASEAN and GCC countries, focusing on infrastructure, market rules, and payment systems [2][4]. Group 2: Anti-Monopoly and Fair Competition - The State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Committee emphasizes the need to enhance fair competition governance and address new challenges in the market [4][5]. Group 3: Modern Enterprise System - The Central Committee and State Council released opinions on improving the modern enterprise system, focusing on income distribution, management compensation, and corporate governance [8][9]. Group 4: Marketization of Resource and Environmental Factors - The government issued opinions to enhance the marketization of carbon emissions and water rights, aiming for a more active trading market by 2027 [11][12]. Group 5: Employment Public Service Model - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security proposed a precise employment public service model to improve job matching and support for unemployed individuals [14][15]. Group 6: Smart Supply Chain Development - Eight government departments released a plan to accelerate the development of smart supply chains across key sectors, aiming to reduce logistics costs and enhance supply chain integration [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's unemployment insurance system and how it can be improved to effectively support the unemployed through a closed-loop system of "ensuring livelihood, promoting training, and assisting employment" [1] Group 1: Current State of Unemployment Insurance System - The unemployment insurance fund primarily consists of insurance premiums and plays a significant role in counter-cyclical adjustment, with expenditures increasing by 22.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024 [2][9] - The fund's income is mainly derived from unemployment insurance premiums, with 89.5% of income from 2018 to 2023 coming from employer and employee contributions [2][18] - Expenditures focus on basic living security for the unemployed, with unemployment insurance benefits and medical insurance fee payments accounting for 32% and 8% of total expenditures from 2018 to 2023, respectively [2][24] Group 2: Challenges Facing the Unemployment Insurance System - The coverage rate of unemployment insurance exceeded 50% in 2023, but the coverage for key groups such as migrant workers remains significantly low, with only 19% of new flexible employment positions covered by social insurance [4][33] - The beneficiary rate of unemployment insurance has been below 5% overall, with only 3% in 2023, indicating that less than 15% of the unemployed population benefits from the insurance [4][39] - Some regions face significant pressure on the balance of unemployment insurance funds, with 9 regions having a sustainability period of less than 24 months in 2023 [5][48] Group 3: International Experience in Unemployment Insurance - International unemployment insurance systems can be categorized into four types: mandatory unemployment insurance, non-mandatory unemployment insurance, unemployment relief, and dual unemployment insurance systems [6][54] - Germany's dual unemployment insurance mechanism combines unemployment insurance and unemployment relief, covering over 90% of the workforce, while Japan also has a robust dual system with significant fiscal support for unemployment policies [7][58] - The U.S. system features a federal-state dual structure with flexible experience-rated tax adjustments, incentivizing employers to maintain stable employment [7][71] Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - To enhance the effectiveness of the unemployment insurance system, it is recommended to expand coverage, especially for new employment forms, and to improve the beneficiary rate by optimizing application conditions [7][75] - Implementing an "experience-rated" model could provide local governments with the flexibility to adjust policies based on regional conditions [7][75] - Gradually establishing a dual system of "basic insurance + unemployment relief" could alleviate funding pressures and ensure basic living standards for long-term unemployed individuals [7][75]

Core Viewpoint - Since early 2025, the U.S. has significantly increased imports, but the accumulation of inventory has lagged behind, raising questions about the sustainability of this import surge and whether "safe" inventory levels will rise [2][57]. Group 1: Import Surge and Inventory Accumulation - The U.S. has experienced a notable surge in imports since early 2025, particularly following the election of Trump, which heightened expectations of increased tariffs. This surge is reflected in data from Chinese exports, U.S. imports, and port activity [2][57]. - In the first quarter of 2025, U.S. imports increased dramatically, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.4% in March. However, the inventory accumulation during this period was significantly lower, contributing only 2.6 percentage points to GDP growth compared to the 5 percentage points dragged down by imports [6][13][57]. - Monthly data indicates that the growth rate of U.S. imports has consistently outpaced that of inventory accumulation, suggesting a mismatch between import levels and inventory growth [19][57]. Group 2: Understanding the Discrepancy Between Inventory and Imports - The discrepancy between inventory accumulation and imports can be attributed to robust domestic demand and statistical lag in inventory reporting. In the first quarter, while inventory growth increased across most sectors, stable domestic demand, particularly in investment, kept the inventory-to-sales ratio relatively stable at 1.34 in March [3][23][57]. - Inventory growth typically lags behind import growth by about three months due to the time required for goods to be transported and recorded in inventory data. This suggests that the inventory levels are still on an upward trajectory [30][57]. - Since late 2024, excess imports of consumer goods have been sufficient to support approximately 1.3 months of consumption, raising concerns about potential impacts on retail pricing [31][57]. Group 3: Future of Import Demand - The momentum for U.S. imports is likely to diminish after the 90-day tariff suspension period ends, with key tariff deadlines approaching in July and August 2025. This could lead to a reduction in the urgency to import [4][35][57]. - Data suggests that inventory accumulation and weakening domestic demand may suppress future import needs. The second quarter may see a lagged increase in inventory growth, coupled with a marginal decline in domestic demand, potentially reducing import momentum in the latter half of the year [4][45][57]. - The level of "safe" inventory remains a source of uncertainty, influenced by trade policy fluctuations and inflation levels. If trade uncertainties persist, companies may opt to maintain higher inventory levels [48][59][57].

摘要 大类资产&海外事件&数据：特朗普关税合法性遭遇司法挑战 海外市场集体上涨，美债利率快速回落。 当周，纳指上涨2.0%，日经225上涨2.2%；10Y美债收 益率下行10bp至4.41%；美元指数上涨0.3%至99.44，离岸人民币升至7.2065；WTI原油下跌 1.2%至60.8美元/桶，COMEX黄金下跌1.8%至3289.4美元/盎司。 特朗普关税合法性遭遇司法挑战。 5月28日，美国国际贸易法院判决特朗普IEEPA关税违法，特朗 普当日向联邦上诉法院提起上诉，上诉法院5 月 29 日发出行政中止命令，暂时冻结国际贸法院的关 税违法判决，当前关税在行政中止令有效期间继续征收。 鲍威尔会见特朗普，美国4月PCE通胀符合市场预期。 鲍威尔在白宫会见特朗普，讨论包括增长、 就业、通胀等问题，美联储声明强调鲍威尔没有与特朗普讨论降息问题，以及美联储降息决策不受总 统影响。4月美国PCE通胀同比2.1%，环比0.1%，基本符合市场预期。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 二、海外大类资产&基本面&重要事件：特朗普关税合法性遭遇司法挑战 （一）大类资产：海外市场集 ...