Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that policy changes are expected to drive medium to long-term recovery in the industry, with a continued positive outlook on resource sector performance exceeding expectations [2][9] - The petrochemical sector is anticipated to stabilize growth, with the retirement of outdated facilities likely to enhance industry recovery [9][17] - The report emphasizes the sustained optimism regarding the agricultural resource chain, particularly in the phosphate and potassium sectors, which are expected to maintain a relatively balanced supply-demand situation despite concerns over new capacity releases [9][17] Summary by Sections Price and Price Spread Changes - The report monitors 188 chemical products, noting that the top three price increases were for liquid chlorine (up 21.8%), TDI 80/20 (up 18.8%), and natural gas (up 6.3%), while the largest declines were for D4 (down 9.6%), butane (down 6.7%), and acrylic acid (down 5.0%) [14][18] - The top three price spreads that increased were PTA (up 1103.7%), TDI spread (up 30.1%), and acrylic acid butyl ester spread (up 25.6%), with the largest declines in styrene (down 36.5%), oil head propylene spread (down 36.1%), and polyethylene spread (down 20.8%) [19][18] Industry Recovery Expectations - There is a continuous expectation for industry bottom recovery, driven by policy changes and market dynamics [12] - The report indicates that the petrochemical sector has been in a prolonged low phase, and recent policy adjustments are likely to enhance market expectations for recovery [9][17] Agricultural Resource Sector Outlook - The agricultural resource sector, particularly phosphate and potassium, is expected to remain in a relatively tight supply-demand balance, with traditional agricultural needs and emerging demands contributing to this stability [9][17]

雅下水电梯度大与输电远，激活投资机遇 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 电力设备及新能源行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 建议关注雅下水电投资启动，梯度大与输电远激活投资机遇： 风险提示 水电项目建设节奏不及预期、输配电环节投资强度不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 电力设备及新能源行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 22 日 看好（维持） 严东 yandong@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523050001 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ ⚫ 建设容量大，投资体量大。雅鲁藏布江下游水电站（下文简称"雅下水电"）工程 建设容量约 6000-7000 万千瓦，相当于 3 个三峡水电工程体量。工程主要采取截弯 取直、隧洞引水的开发方式，由于其重要的战略地位以及较高的项目技术难度，项 目总投资约 1.2 万亿元，约为 6 个三峡水电工程体量。雅下水电建设容量大，投资 体量大，带动水电产业链景气度提升。 ⚫ 水势梯度大、设备施工投资强度提升。雅鲁藏布江水能资源丰富，其下游大拐 ...

Group 1 - The report argues that an increase in the equity market does not necessarily lead to a rise in interest rates, indicating a potential for a simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds [5][8][15] - Historical patterns show that both scenarios of rising equity markets with either rising or falling interest rates have occurred, suggesting that the underlying reasons for stock market increases are crucial [9][11] - The current stock market rise is attributed to improved governance expectations and economic transformation, rather than a significant increase in household deposits moving into equities [11][13] Group 2 - The report highlights that the fixed income market is experiencing a high issuance of interest rate bonds, with an expected issuance of 940.8 billion yuan this week, indicating a robust supply environment [16][18] - Recent data shows a significant increase in reverse repos and a net injection of liquidity by the central bank, which has implications for bond market dynamics [23][24] - The report notes that the leverage ratio in the bond market has risen above seasonal averages, reflecting increased trading activity and potential adjustments in investor strategies [13][14]

Group 1 - The report suggests that for most investors, it is time to gradually take profits on ultra-long credit bonds due to declining odds of capital gains, limited arbitrage opportunities, and weak coupon protection [6][14][18] - The performance of ultra-long credit bonds has been primarily driven by the compression of liquidity premiums in June, but this trend is expected to be difficult to sustain moving forward [7][14] - The report indicates that the current coupon advantage of ultra-long credit bonds is not significant, and their ability to protect against interest rate fluctuations is lacking, leading to a low probability of success for short-term holdings [12][18] Group 2 - The weekly review of credit bonds shows that the issuance volume remained stable, with a slight increase in maturity amounts, resulting in a net inflow of 452 billion yuan, which is a decrease compared to previous weeks [20][22] - The average coupon rates for newly issued AAA and AA+ rated bonds were 1.99% and 2.24%, respectively, indicating a mixed trend in issuance costs [20][21] - The liquidity of credit bonds continues to weaken, with a decrease in turnover rate to 1.76%, reflecting a return to a relatively low level [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 38.18 CNY, based on a 46X valuation multiple for 2025 [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to see improved profitability driven by supply optimization and demand growth, leading to price elasticity in the rare earth market [9]. - The second quarter performance is projected to show a significant increase in net profit, estimated between 4.7 to 5.3 billion CNY, which is higher than the first quarter's 4.3 billion CNY, attributed to tight supply and strong demand [9]. - The company is enhancing operational efficiency through innovation and optimizing product structure to meet market demands for high-value customized rare earth products [9]. - Ongoing mergers and acquisitions are expected to strengthen the company's position in the rare earth industry, enhancing its market influence and pricing power [9]. - Emerging applications in sectors like low-altitude economy and electric vehicles are anticipated to drive demand for rare earth materials, with the company poised to benefit from these trends [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a decline in 2023 and 2024, followed by a recovery with expected growth rates of 11.0%, 10.1%, and 10.0% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][11]. - The company's net profit is forecasted to rebound significantly in 2025, with a projected increase of 198.0% compared to 2024, followed by continued growth in subsequent years [4][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.28 CNY in 2024 to 1.18 CNY by 2027, reflecting the company's recovery and growth trajectory [4][11].

Core Insights - The report indicates a shift in the banking sector's focus from fundamental expectations and growth thinking to strategy and trading thinking, highlighting the evolving landscape of investment approaches in the industry [2][29]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - Three significant regulatory actions have guided the banking industry from "wild growth" to orderly expansion: 1. In 2011, the tightening of city commercial banks' cross-regional expansion and the central bank's credit scale control ended the disorderly expansion of the banking sector [16][20]. 2. The introduction of the MPA assessment in 2016 served as a core regulatory framework, preventing small and medium-sized banks from circumventing regulations and promoting stability [21][23]. 3. The implementation of asset management regulations in 2018 significantly constrained the expansion of non-standard assets in banks, addressing risks associated with shadow banking [24][28]. Group 2: Valuation Framework - A new understanding of the valuation framework for banks is presented, emphasizing the "PB-ROE" model, where banks with higher ROE typically correspond to higher PB ratios. The introduction of dividend yield and payout ratio into this framework suggests that banks with an ROE above 11.7% could justify a PB valuation above 1 [32][33]. - The report notes a shift in the driving logic behind bank stock price increases from growth logic to dividend strategies, indicating a transition in market focus from numerator-driven factors (like ROE) to denominator-driven factors (like dividend yield) [32][33]. Group 3: Historical Performance Review - A comprehensive review of bank stocks from 2008 to 2022 reveals that the banking sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index, achieving nine rounds of excess returns lasting over three months. The core driving factors shifted from growth to dividends over this period [8][29]. - Specific periods of excess returns are highlighted, such as: 1. From November 2008 to July 2009, the sector achieved an absolute return of 139.8% and an excess return of 15.3% [19]. 2. In 2011, despite negative absolute returns, the sector still managed an excess return of 17.6% [19]. 3. The period from October 2014 to December 2014 saw an absolute return of 60% and an excess return of 14.9% [19]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests two main investment themes: 1. Anticipating a reduction in insurance preset interest rates in Q3 2025, it recommends focusing on high-dividend banks such as China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [3]. 2. The strong performance of small and medium-sized banks since the beginning of the year is expected to continue, with recommendations for banks like Industrial Bank, CITIC Bank, and Nanjing Bank based on valuation, dividends, and fundamentals [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a pioneer in the domestic substitution of optical OCA glue, with revenue expected to continue growing significantly. In 2024, the company's electronic-grade adhesive materials are projected to generate 1.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66%, primarily driven by OCA optical glue [9] - The company is accelerating vertical integration to build a comprehensive supply chain, achieving over 70% self-sufficiency in key materials for OCA optical glue. This integrated approach is expected to enhance profitability as the scale effect materializes [9] - Profitability is currently under pressure due to prior investments, but profits are anticipated to grow rapidly after the peak of depreciation costs passes [9] Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The company is forecasted to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 141 million yuan, 275 million yuan, and 439 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. This is an adjustment from previous forecasts due to a downward revision in gross margin and an upward revision in revenue [3][10] - The target price is set at 19.52 yuan based on a comparable company PE of 32 times for 2026 [3][10] - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 1,969 million yuan in 2023, 2,691 million yuan in 2024, 3,535 million yuan in 2025, 4,431 million yuan in 2026, and 5,345 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 20.6% from 2025 to 2027 [5][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 36.45 CNY based on a 27x PE valuation for 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand in automotive electronics and AI, which opens up significant growth opportunities. The report highlights the company's technological advantages in miniaturization and precision, positioning it well to capitalize on trends in these sectors [1][8]. - The company's revenue from automotive electronics and energy storage is projected to reach 1.1 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 62.1%. The report emphasizes the increasing value per vehicle for the company's products, which is expected to rise as new products are introduced [8]. - The company is also enhancing its product offerings in the AI sector, with innovations aimed at meeting the demands for higher power density and lower power consumption in AI applications. The report notes successful implementations of the company's products in high-profile AI platforms [8]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.35 CNY, 1.73 CNY, and 2.18 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. This reflects adjustments in revenue and expense forecasts [2][9]. - Projected revenue figures for the company are as follows: 5,040 million CNY in 2023, growing to 10,134 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.2% [4][11]. - The report indicates a significant increase in operating profit, expected to rise from 844 million CNY in 2023 to 2,228 million CNY by 2027, showcasing a robust growth trajectory [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and military industry [5] Core Insights - The military trade market is expected to accelerate and improve efficiency, with a continued positive outlook on the military trade sector [10][12] - Geopolitical instability is likely to lead to sustained global demand for military trade, presenting significant development opportunities for China's military trade [14][15] - The current market position suggests a continued positive outlook on the military industry, with military trade expected to become a second growth driver [16] Summary by Sections Military Trade Sector - A high-level meeting between AVIC and Shaanxi Aircraft Industry Group highlighted the importance of military trade, focusing on high-quality development and addressing international market needs [9][12][13] - The European defense sector is undergoing upgrades, with countries increasing defense budgets, which may create supply gaps and opportunities for China's military exports [14][15] Performance and Market Trends - The defense and military industry index increased by 2.26%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [18][19] - The report notes that most military companies have shown rapid growth in their half-year performance for 2025, with significant increases in net profits for several companies [30][32] Investment Recommendations - Suggested investment targets include: - Military Electronics: Zhenhua Technology (000733, Buy), Aerospace Electronics (002025, Buy) [17] - Key Materials and Parts: Western Superconductor (688122, Buy), Chujian New Materials (002171, Buy) [17] - Engine Supply Chain: Aero Engine Corporation of China (600893, Not Rated), Western Superconductor (688122, Buy) [17] - Military Trade: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (600760, Not Rated), Guorui Technology (600562, Not Rated) [17]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the index continues to rise, with a focus on financial and technology sectors, as the market sentiment remains optimistic, leading to a 3.17% increase in the ChiNext index and a 0.69% increase in the Shanghai Composite index [3][15]. - It is recommended to maintain a high position in the market, as the upward momentum may accelerate after the consolidation phase, with financial and technology sectors being the main focus for the second half of the year [4][16]. Group 2 - The report highlights a positive outlook for the artificial intelligence sector, with significant developments expected in the next 1-2 months, including the potential release of OpenAI's GPT-5 and the success of KimiK2 as a leading open-source model [5][17]. - Robotics, as a key application area of artificial intelligence, is also expected to rise alongside AI, with additional opportunities in other technology segments such as innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, stablecoins, nuclear fusion, and deep-sea economy [6][18]. Group 3 - The report notes that while the anti-involution theme may see short-term fluctuations due to policy expectations, its overall sustainability is limited, suggesting a focus on steel and non-ferrous metals for mid-term investment potential [7][19]. - The financial sector is identified as a crucial component for index growth, with recommendations for low-cost entry during the current consolidation phase, alongside a cautious approach to the real estate sector as risk assessments may begin to decline [8][20].