长安汽车 000625.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | 启源新车上市，深蓝、阿维塔表现较好 | | --- | 核心观点 ⚫ 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 预测 2025-2027 年归母净利润 80.30、94.71、113.13 亿元，维持可比公司 25 年平 均 PE 估值 21 倍，目标价 17.01 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 151,298 | 159,733 | 180,654 | 200,457 | 219,509 | | 同比增长 (%) | 24.8% | 5.6% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 9.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 10,447 | 6,624 | 8,395 | 9,919 | 11,868 | | 同比增长 (%) | 36.9% | -36.6% | 26.7% | 18.2% | 19.6% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 11,327 | 7,321 | 8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 17.01 CNY, based on a comparable company average PE valuation of 21 times for 2025 [4][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit attributable to the parent company, projected at 8.03 billion CNY in 2025, 9.47 billion CNY in 2026, and 11.31 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 9.7%, 17.9%, and 19.4% respectively [4][6]. - The company is actively launching new models, with the recent introduction of the Changan Q07 and strong performance from its new energy brands, Deep Blue and Avita, which are expected to drive sales growth [10]. Financial Information Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 151.30 billion CNY in 2023 to 219.51 billion CNY in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.8%, 5.6%, 13.1%, 11.0%, and 9.5% respectively [6][11]. - Operating profit is expected to recover from a decline in 2024, with forecasts of 6.62 billion CNY in 2024, 8.40 billion CNY in 2025, and reaching 11.87 billion CNY by 2027 [6][11]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 17.3% in 2023 to 18.2% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to increase from 7.5% to 5.2% over the same period [6][11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 1.14 CNY in 2023 to 1.14 CNY in 2027, indicating a recovery after a dip in 2024 [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 23.75 CNY, based on a projected average PE of 25 times for comparable companies in 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown a positive trend in sales, particularly in its self-owned brands and new energy vehicles, with significant growth in sales figures [1][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is projected to be 0.95, 1.03, and 1.15 CNY respectively, indicating a recovery in profitability after a challenging period [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: The company's revenue is expected to decline from 726,199 million CNY in 2023 to 614,074 million CNY in 2024, before gradually increasing to 742,172 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.9% from 2025 to 2027 [4][9]. - **Operating Profit**: Operating profit is forecasted to recover significantly from 10,376 million CNY in 2024 to 21,995 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 74.4% in 2025 [4][9]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rebound from 1,666 million CNY in 2024 to 13,325 million CNY in 2027, with a remarkable growth of 560.3% in 2025 [4][9]. - **Profitability Ratios**: The gross margin is projected to improve from 9.4% in 2024 to 11.1% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 1.7% during the forecast period [4][9]. Sales Performance Summary - The company achieved a wholesale sales volume of 376,500 units in April 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and a cumulative sales volume of 1,321,400 units from January to April 2025, reflecting a 10.7% increase year-on-year [8]. - The sales of self-owned brands and new energy vehicles have been particularly strong, with a 71.7% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales in April 2025 [8].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Dividend Impact Prediction Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to predict the impact of dividends on stock index futures pricing by estimating the dividend points for different contracts and calculating their influence on futures prices[7][10][19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Estimate Component Stocks' Net Profit**: Use available financial data in the following priority: annual reports > quick reports > earnings warnings > trailing twelve-month (TTM) net profit from Q3 reports > analysts' earnings forecasts[21][22] 2. **Calculate Pre-Tax Dividend Total**: Based on the estimated net profit, calculate the total dividend amount using historical dividend payout ratios or directly use announced dividend plans[23][26] 3. **Assess Dividend Impact on Index**: - Dividend Yield = Post-Tax Dividend Total / Latest Market Value - Dividend Points Impact = Stock Weight × Dividend Yield - Adjust stock weights using the formula: $$\mathrm{w_{it}={\frac{w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\scriptsize{\boldmath~(~1+R~)}~}}{\sum_{1}^{n}w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\scriptsize{\boldmath~(~1+R~)}~}}}}$$ where \( w_{i0} \) is the initial weight, and \( R \) is the stock's return over the period[24] 4. **Predict Contract-Specific Impact**: Aggregate dividend impacts for all component stocks within the contract's maturity period, considering historical ex-dividend dates and adjustments for shareholder meeting schedules[25][27][28] 5. **Theoretical Pricing Formula**: - For discrete dividends: $$\mathbf{D}=\sum_{\mathrm{i=1}}^{\mathrm{m}}\mathbf{D}_{\mathrm{i}}\,/(1+\phi)$$ $$F_t = (S_t - D)(1 + r)$$ - For continuous dividends: $$F_t = S_t e^{(r-d)(T-t)}$$ where \( F_t \) is the futures price, \( S_t \) is the spot price, \( D \) is the dividend value, \( r \) is the risk-free rate, and \( d \) is the annualized dividend yield[30][31] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic and logical framework for estimating dividend impacts, leveraging historical data and reasonable assumptions to enhance prediction accuracy[19][22][26] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Dividend Impact Prediction Model - **Dividend Points for June Contracts**: - SSE 50: 18.48 - CSI 300: 23.58 - CSI 500: 44.47 - CSI 1000: 36.22[10][13] - **Annualized Hedging Costs (Excluding Dividends)**: - SSE 50: 1.14% - CSI 300: 5.23% - CSI 500: 12.69% - CSI 1000: 16.86%[7][10][13] - **Remaining Impact on June Contracts**: - SSE 50: 0.68% - CSI 300: 0.61% - CSI 500: 0.78% - CSI 1000: 0.60%[13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 52.5 CNY based on a 30x PE valuation for 2025 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 89.8 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.95 billion CNY, up 19.8% year-on-year [9]. - The medical consumables business showed resilience, with a 20.4% year-on-year growth when excluding the impact of infection protection products, which saw a 61% decline [9]. - The consumer goods segment demonstrated strong performance, with a revenue increase of 17% in 2024, driven by significant sales growth in key products [9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company expects revenues to grow from 81.85 billion CNY in 2023 to 146.45 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.6% [4][10]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is projected to increase from 5.8 billion CNY in 2023 to 14.27 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.00 CNY in 2023 to 2.45 CNY in 2027 [4][10]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margin is expected to slightly decline from 49.0% in 2023 to 46.2% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to improve from 7.1% to 9.7% over the same period [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 52.5 CNY based on a 30x PE valuation for 2025 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 89.8 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.95 billion CNY, up 19.8% year-on-year [9]. - The medical consumables business showed resilience, with a 20.4% year-on-year growth when excluding the impact of infection protection products, which saw a 61% decline [9]. - The consumer goods segment demonstrated strong performance, with a revenue increase of 17% in 2024, driven by significant sales growth in key products [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 11,165 million CNY, 12,891 million CNY, and 14,645 million CNY, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 24.4%, 15.5%, and 13.6% [4][10]. - The company's net profit is expected to reach 1,019 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 46.5% [4][10]. - The gross margin is projected to decline slightly from 49.0% in 2023 to 46.2% by 2027, while the net margin is expected to improve from 7.1% to 9.7% over the same period [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience in revenue despite overall pressure on discretionary consumption, with a projected revenue growth of 13.2% in 2024 [6]. - The company is increasing brand investments to drive long-term growth, including a youth-oriented strategy and the revitalization of the KENT & CURWEN brand [6]. - The company’s inventory turnover days have improved, indicating better inventory management [6]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.33, 1.51, and 1.72 yuan respectively, with a target price of 22.61 yuan based on a 17x PE ratio for 2025 [3][7]. - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 3,536 million, 4,004 million, 4,427 million, 4,965 million, and 5,556 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 22.6%, 13.2%, 10.5%, 12.2%, and 11.9% respectively [3][9]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to decline slightly from 78.6% in 2023A to 75.3% in 2027E, while net profit margin is projected to decrease from 25.8% to 17.7% over the same period [3][9]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company’s revenue from online, direct, and franchise channels is expected to grow by 35%, 7%, and 24% respectively [6]. - The company plans to open new stores for the KENT & CURWEN brand in key locations, aiming to establish it as a second growth driver [6]. Management Changes - The company has appointed a new general manager, who is expected to contribute to the implementation of the youth-oriented strategy [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 22.61 CNY based on a 17x PE valuation for 2025 [3][7]. Core Views - The company demonstrated revenue resilience with a projected revenue growth of 13.2% in 2024, despite a decline in net profit by 14.3% [6]. - The company is focusing on brand investment and youth-oriented strategies, including the appointment of a new brand ambassador and the revitalization of the KENT & CURWEN brand [6]. - Inventory turnover days improved, indicating better inventory management, with a decrease of 22 days year-on-year [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 3,536 million CNY in 2023 to 5,556 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 11.9% [3][9]. - Operating profit is expected to decline slightly from 1,063 million CNY in 2023 to 1,186 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a more challenging operating environment [3][9]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease from 911 million CNY in 2023 to 981 million CNY in 2027, with a notable drop in 2024 [3][9]. - The company's gross margin is expected to decline from 78.6% in 2023 to 75.3% in 2027, while net margin is projected to decrease from 25.8% to 17.7% over the same period [3][9]. Channel Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from online, direct, and franchise channels is expected to grow by 35%, 7%, and 24% respectively [6]. - The company opened 37 new direct stores and 2 franchise stores, indicating a commitment to expanding its physical presence [6]. Management Changes - The company appointed a new general manager, who is expected to drive the youth-oriented strategy and enhance brand positioning [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 17.29 CNY, based on a 19 times P/E ratio for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's earnings are gradually improving, with a projected revenue of 66.615 billion CNY for 2025, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.7% year-on-year, followed by growth in subsequent years [4][9]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with plans to increase PTA capacity to over 10 million tons by the end of 2025 and to add 65,000 tons of long fiber capacity [9]. - The long fiber market is expected to see continued recovery, driven by a slowdown in supply growth and an increase in demand, particularly from the textile sector [9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 61.469 billion CNY - 2024: 67.091 billion CNY - 2025: 66.615 billion CNY - 2026: 75.409 billion CNY - 2027: 82.129 billion CNY - **Net Profit**: - 2023: 1.086 billion CNY - 2024: 1.100 billion CNY - 2025: 1.380 billion CNY - 2026: 1.745 billion CNY - 2027: 2.285 billion CNY - **Earnings Per Share**: - 2023: 0.71 CNY - 2024: 0.72 CNY - 2025: 0.91 CNY - 2026: 1.14 CNY - 2027: 1.50 CNY [4][9][11]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of May 14, 2025, was 11.49 CNY, with a 52-week high of 16.1 CNY and a low of 9.53 CNY [5]. - The stock has shown a relative performance of 1.93% over the past month, indicating a positive trend compared to the market [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 17.29 CNY, based on a 19x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company's profitability is gradually improving, with a forecasted revenue of 66.615 billion CNY for 2025, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.7% year-on-year, followed by growth in subsequent years [4][9]. - The long filament market is expected to continue recovering, with a projected increase in industry capacity to around 2 million tons in 2025, aligning supply growth with demand [9]. - The company is expanding its integrated production capacity, with PTA capacity expected to exceed 10 million tons by the end of 2025, and plans to launch additional polyester production lines [9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 61.469 billion CNY - 2024: 67.091 billion CNY - 2025: 66.615 billion CNY - 2026: 75.409 billion CNY - 2027: 82.129 billion CNY - **Net Profit**: - 2023: 1.086 billion CNY - 2024: 1.100 billion CNY - 2025: 1.380 billion CNY - 2026: 1.745 billion CNY - 2027: 2.285 billion CNY - **Earnings Per Share**: - 2023: 0.71 CNY - 2024: 0.72 CNY - 2025: 0.91 CNY - 2026: 1.14 CNY - 2027: 1.50 CNY - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 5.8% in 2023, expected to rise to 7.0% by 2027 - Net Margin: 1.8% in 2023, expected to reach 2.8% by 2027 - Return on Equity: 6.7% in 2023, projected to increase to 10.9% by 2027 [4][9][11].