Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company has a leading cost advantage in the C2 and C3 light hydrocarbon integration layout, with significant cost advantages in ethylene production from ethane cracking. The company has established a global ethane supply chain through strategic investments in U.S. ports and VLEC fleets, positioning itself for a new growth phase with upcoming project launches in ethylene production [1][17]. - The ethylene and propylene industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, with structural contradictions in the high-end polyethylene market creating significant opportunities for domestic production to replace imports. The company is actively expanding its high-end polyethylene product offerings, which are anticipated to drive its next growth phase [3][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has successfully integrated C2 and C3 light hydrocarbons, achieving a cost advantage over peers. The ethylene production process from ethane is notably cost-effective, and the company has built a robust global supply chain for ethane, ensuring a steady supply for its production needs [1][17]. Industry Outlook - The ethylene and propylene industry is projected to experience a recovery, with new capacity expected to come online in 2025-2026. The industry is currently facing a structural imbalance characterized by low-end oversupply and high-end shortages, particularly in high-end polyethylene products, which are heavily reliant on imports [3][19]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 6.3 billion, 7.4 billion, and 9.2 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 3.1%, 18.4%, and 23.6%. The expected EPS for the same years is 1.86, 2.20, and 2.72 RMB per share [5][11]. Competitive Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the ethylene market, with a current capacity of 2.5 million tons and additional capacity expected to come online by 2026-2027. The strategic focus on high-end polyethylene products is anticipated to fill domestic supply gaps and enhance the company's competitive edge [3][19][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cement industry [6][27]. Core Insights - The cement industry is expected to see significant improvement in performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, driven by anti-involution measures and a focus on high-quality development [1][4]. - The historical success of supply-side reforms has led to a reduction in new cement production lines, alleviating supply-demand imbalances, but recent market demand declines have intensified competition [2][3]. - The regulatory framework for anti-involution policies is being strengthened, with measures to address overproduction expected to be a key focus in the second half of 2025 [3][4]. - Companies with integrated operations and global expansion strategies are positioned for long-term growth, with specific recommendations for Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material [1][4][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cement industry has experienced a significant drop in average prices, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% as of July 11, 2025, leading to a renewed call for anti-involution measures [2][3]. Performance Forecasts - Five cement companies have reported impressive performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with some expecting net profit increases of over 100% year-on-year [4][8]. Policy Developments - Recent policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the inclusion of the cement industry in carbon emissions trading are expected to enhance the regulatory framework for managing overproduction [3][4]. Company Recommendations - The report highlights Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material as key investment opportunities due to their competitive advantages in scale, cost, and energy efficiency [1][4][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Viewpoints - The demand for advanced processes remains strong, with TSMC's 2Q25 revenue exceeding expectations, achieving NT$933.8 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.3% and a year-on-year increase of 38.6% [1] - The N3 platform demand is rapidly increasing, with over 70 new tape-out products received in April, indicating structural growth potential [2] - The forecast for computing power demand has been raised, with significant growth expected in the AI custom acceleration chip market, projected to grow from $6.6 billion in 2023 to $55.4 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 53% [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: TSMC's Performance - TSMC's 2Q25 revenue reached NT$933.8 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of NT$929.1 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.3% and a year-on-year increase of 38.6% [1] - The average exchange rate of the New Taiwan Dollar appreciated by 6.7% against the US Dollar, leading to a dollar-denominated revenue increase of 18.8% [1] Section 2: N3 Platform Demand - Concerns about TSMC's revenue growth in April and May being driven by tariff impacts are mitigated by the company's indication that there has been no change in customer order patterns [2] - The N3 platform and its derivatives are experiencing rapid demand growth, with a significant number of new tape-outs expected [2] Section 3: AI Demand and Market Outlook - Major companies are continuously iterating on pre-trained models, with OpenAI and xAI's large-scale computing clusters driving demand for pre-training and inference [3] - Marvell has revised its 2028 data center total addressable market (TAM) forecast from $75 billion to $94 billion, indicating strong growth potential in the AI sector [3] Section 4: Advanced and Mature Process Pricing - TSMC plans to increase prices for advanced processes to mitigate margin dilution from overseas factory expansions, while competition in mature processes remains intense [4] - The upcoming N2 node production is expected to enhance product structure and drive advanced average selling price (ASP) increases [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the commercial aerospace industry, specifically focusing on satellite internet services [6]. Core Insights - The successful commercialization of Starlink is driven by three core factors: supply-side advantages in satellite launch and production capabilities, strong demand across consumer, industry, and government sectors, and comprehensive technological innovations that create a competitive moat [1][2][3]. Supply-Side Summary - Starlink has launched over 9,000 satellites, with more than 7,000 currently in orbit, establishing a global coverage network with a bandwidth capacity of approximately 350 Tbps [2][12]. - The launch capabilities are enhanced by self-developed rockets and reusable technology, allowing for low-cost and rapid network construction [2][18]. - Manufacturing capabilities are globally leading, with plans to produce 5,000 next-generation satellites annually, potentially reaching 10,000 units [28][32]. Demand-Side Summary - Starlink targets remote areas, with a significant user base growth in rural and island regions, and has over 6 million global users [1][3]. - The service is expanding into various sectors, including aviation, maritime, and government applications, with contracts for over 2,000 aircraft and 75,000 ships [3][42]. - The international market share is growing, with 41% of customers located outside North America and Europe, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa [3][58]. Technology Analysis Summary - Starlink's technological edge comes from innovations in satellite manufacturing, communication networks, and terminal integration, achieving low latency of 20-40 ms [4][34]. - The satellite design incorporates high-capacity and lightweight features, while terminal technology has seen significant cost reductions, promoting user adoption [4][30]. Growth Potential Summary - Starlink's business is expected to grow rapidly, with projected revenues reaching $27.5 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 23% [5][58]. - The approval of an additional 22,000 satellites by the FCC and the operational launch of the Starship and Starlink V3.0 are key growth drivers [5][24]. - The competitive landscape is evolving with other low-Earth orbit satellite constellations entering the market, indicating a potential shift in industry dynamics [5][58].

Macro Insights - The recent tariff adjustments by the Trump administration have raised concerns about global trade dynamics, with tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% imposed on multiple countries, including major trading partners like Japan, South Korea, and the EU [2][3] - The U.S. manufacturing sector showed marginal improvement, with global manufacturing sentiment returning above the threshold, but the renewed tariff threats cast uncertainty on future growth [3] - The U.S. CPI and PPI data releases are anticipated to provide further insights into inflation trends, with the market closely monitoring these indicators [3] Industry Analysis - The real estate sector is experiencing weaker transaction volumes despite increased travel demand during the summer, influenced by adverse weather conditions [4] - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from supply-side adjustments due to government policies aimed at reducing overcapacity, with a potential recovery in the second half of 2025 [14] - The heavy truck market is projected to see significant growth, with sales expected to exceed one million units, driven by the "old-for-new" policy [15] Company-Specific Insights - Gu Ming, a leading fresh beverage company, is expected to expand its market presence with a target price of 35.27 HKD, supported by a robust store network and efficient supply chain [16] - Si Yuan Electric, a leader in the power equipment sector, reported a 37.80% year-on-year revenue increase for H1 2025, indicating strong growth potential in both domestic and international markets [17] - China Shenhua's H1 2025 net profit is projected to decline by 13.2% to 20.0% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced business scale amid falling coal prices, yet the company maintains a strong position due to high long-term contract ratios [18] - Ecovacs is expected to see a significant recovery in profitability, with a projected net profit increase of 57.64% to 62.57% for H1 2025, driven by the "old-for-new" subsidy and competitive product offerings [19]

Macro Overview - In early July, global trade shows resilience, with US imports and China's exports maintaining strength, although sustainability is in question [2][4] - Manufacturing recovery continues globally, while inflation expectations in financial markets are rising despite a slight decrease in retail prices in late June [2] - Corporate confidence is weakened due to tariff uncertainties, leading to a decline in capital expenditure expectations [2] Industry Insights - The macroeconomic model indicates a recovery in the overall industry prosperity index in June, with a slowdown in the decline of non-financial industry prosperity [2] - Key sectors to focus on include small metals, PCB, storage, wind power, insurance, thermal power, infrastructure, and certain consumer goods, as well as pharmaceuticals, military, gaming, and communication equipment/software driven by AI [2] - The steel, coal, and some chemical products sectors are expected to benefit from anti-involution policies and signs of a bottoming cycle, with valuations already reflecting downward expectations [2] Real Estate Sector - Real estate financing data shows a continued improvement trend in 1H25, supported by special bonds and a shift from debt extension to debt reduction [7] - The recovery pace in core cities, particularly first-tier cities, is expected to continue, with recommendations for developers with strong credit, good cities, and solid products [7] Aviation Leasing - China Aircraft Leasing Group (BOCA) reported a slight increase in aircraft deliveries in 2Q25, with 13 aircraft delivered compared to 11 in 1Q25, while 14 aircraft were sold, reducing the owned fleet to 441 [9] - The improvement in upstream manufacturing capacity is a positive signal for potential rental income growth, although uncertainties remain regarding the Fed's interest rate decisions [9] E-commerce Sector - JD.com is expected to show steady growth in 2Q25, driven by the trade-in policy, although significant investments in the food delivery business may pressure short-term profits [10] - Alibaba's e-commerce business is projected to perform well, with a 22% expected growth in cloud revenue, but short-term profit impacts are anticipated due to strong investments in flash sales [12] Logistics and Delivery - Jitu Express reported a significant increase in parcel volume, with a 27% year-on-year growth in 1H25, driven by strong performance in Southeast Asia and China [14] - The company is expected to further increase its market share in the logistics sector due to its competitive advantages [14] Chemical Industry - Dongyue Group anticipates a 150% year-on-year increase in net profit for 25H1, benefiting from an upward trend in the refrigerant market [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 150.00 and USD 152.90 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience short-term profit pressure due to increased investment in flash sales, although its e-commerce business is projected to perform steadily in 1QFY26 with a year-on-year growth of 11% in CMR [1][2]. - The cloud business is anticipated to continue its accelerated growth, with a projected revenue increase of 22% year-on-year in 1QFY26, supported by strong external demand [1][2]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of the flash sales business, which launched on May 2, and the significant investments made to attract both merchants and consumers [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue for 1QFY26 is expected to increase by 1% year-on-year to CNY 245.7 billion, with adjusted EBITA projected to decline by 16.5% to CNY 37.6 billion due to increased spending on flash sales [2][11]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for FY26, FY27, and FY28 has been reduced by 20.6%, 22.2%, and 21.3% respectively, reflecting the higher-than-expected investments in flash sales [4][11]. Business Segments and Performance - The report notes that the flash sales business has seen a rapid increase in daily order volume, reaching over 80 million orders per day, with significant user engagement improvements [3][4]. - The company’s various business segments, including the Taobao Group and local life services, are expected to show mixed performance, with some segments continuing to reduce losses while others face challenges [2][11]. Valuation and Estimates - The report adjusts the valuation based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, with new target prices reflecting a decrease due to increased competition and investment pressures [4][14]. - The estimated non-GAAP net profit for FY26 is projected at CNY 134 billion, with a corresponding PE ratio of 13.36 [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The supply of aircraft is slightly improving, with Boeing and Airbus delivering a total of 320 aircraft in 2Q25, up from 266 in 1Q25. The company delivered 13 aircraft in 2Q25, an increase from 11 in 1Q25, but sold 14 aircraft, resulting in a decrease in owned aircraft to 441 [1][2][3] - The company expects a core ROE of 10.6% for 2025, roughly in line with 10.5% in 2024, indicating stable performance despite potential challenges in the debt market due to fluctuating U.S. Treasury rates [1][4] Summary by Sections Supply Chain Improvement - The report highlights that the recovery of aircraft manufacturers' capacity is crucial for the company's performance. The increase in aircraft deliveries is expected to positively impact leasing rates and ROE if the trend continues [2] Fleet Management - In 2Q25, the company executed 75 transactions, including the delivery of 13 aircraft and the sale of 14 aircraft, leading to a net decrease in owned aircraft. The average age of sold aircraft was 10.4 years, which is higher than the overall fleet average of 5 years. The company maintains a strong order book with 351 aircraft on order [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of USD 702.62 million for 2025, with a slight decrease from 2024. The target price is set at HKD 82, based on a 1.06x 2025E PB ratio [5][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the rapid expansion of e-commerce in Southeast Asia, with a projected market share increase from 28.6% in 2024 to 30% in 2025 [5][6]. - The Southeast Asian e-commerce retail market is forecasted to grow from $189.8 billion in 2023 to $373.6 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [5]. - The company is projected to achieve substantial profit growth, with net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 revised upward by 5%, 6%, and 3% respectively, reaching $360.6 million, $690.5 million, and $898.7 million [8]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages, including cost reductions through scale effects and the ability to integrate logistics across various e-commerce platforms [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: $10,259 million in 2024, $12,484 million in 2025, $14,693 million in 2026, and $16,979 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 15.93%, 21.69%, 17.70%, and 15.56% respectively [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from $0.01 in 2024 to $0.10 in 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 3.61% in 2024 to 20.80% in 2027 [4]. Market Position - The company has established itself as the largest express delivery service provider in Southeast Asia, benefiting from significant market share and cost advantages [5][6]. - The report indicates that the company’s total parcel volume in Southeast Asia increased by 65.9% year-on-year in the second quarter, reaching 1.69 billion parcels [10]. Valuation - The target price for the company's stock has been raised by 44% to HKD 10.80, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.0x for the years 2025-2027, reflecting the company's higher-than-industry growth prospects [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is maintained as "Buy" [6][4]. Core Views - JD Group is expected to achieve steady growth in its retail performance for Q2 2025, driven by the "trade-in" policy, with revenue and profit continuing to show double-digit growth. However, increased investment in new businesses like food delivery is anticipated to exert pressure on short-term profits [1][2]. - The total revenue for Q2 2025 is projected to increase by 15.6% year-on-year to RMB 337 billion, with the retail segment expected to grow by 16.5% to RMB 299.5 billion, reflecting robust growth in the electronics and daily necessities categories [2][11]. - The food delivery business is gaining traction, with significant growth in operational metrics such as daily orders and the number of merchants and delivery personnel. The company plans to invest over RMB 10 billion to support brand sales growth [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 is expected to be RMB 4.36 billion, representing a 70% year-on-year decline, primarily due to the high investment in the food delivery segment [1][4]. - The forecast for non-GAAP net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 has been revised down by 45.1%, 16.7%, and 5.1% respectively, to RMB 22.1 billion, RMB 41.5 billion, and RMB 55.1 billion, mainly due to higher-than-expected food delivery investments [4][11]. Valuation - The target price based on SOTP valuation is set at USD 45.79 per ADS and HKD 179.72 per ordinary share, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates due to a reduction in the valuation multiples for the e-commerce business [4][14]. - The target price for the retail business is set at USD 31.75 per ADS, based on a non-GAAP PE of 10.0 times the 2025 forecast, which is below the comparable company average of 14.5 times [14][15]. Operational Metrics - The food delivery segment has shown rapid growth, with daily order volumes exceeding 25 million and over 1.5 million quality restaurants onboarded by June 1, 2025 [3][4]. - The active user engagement on the JD main app has improved significantly, with DAU growth rates of 27.3%, 44.8%, and 33.1% in April, May, and June 2025 respectively [3][4].