Group 1: Report Summary - The main contract LC2605.GFE of the lithium carbonate futures market closed at 93,700 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day, showing a downward trend in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The spot price of lithium carbonate was 93,960 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The current basis is 640 points, a positive basis (spot premium), 1,250 points stronger than the previous day, and the basis has been strengthening overall in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate was 10,422 lots, an increase of 770 lots (+7.98%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have been decreasing overall in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The expectation of partial mine end resumption suppresses prices [4]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The main contract closing price of lithium carbonate futures was 93,700 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day and down 2,120 yuan from the previous week; the settlement price was 93,320 yuan/ton, down 1,580 yuan from the previous day and down 3,700 yuan from the previous week [6]. - The price range of Australian CIF6 Chinese spodumene concentrate was 1,150 - 1,190 US dollars/ton, down 40 US dollars from the previous day and down 30 US dollars from the previous week [6]. - The price of Chinese domestic lithium carbonate (99.5% electric) was 93,960 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan from the previous day and up 620 yuan from the previous week [6]. Group 3: Related Charts - The report includes charts on ore and lithium prices, such as lithium mica price changes, lithium carbonate futures main price, and lithium hydroxide price [7][8]. - There are also charts on cathode and ternary materials, including manganese - acid lithium price, phosphoric acid iron - lithium price, and ternary material price [10][11]. - Additionally, there are charts on lithium carbonate main contract trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipt volume [16][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On December 4, the coke主力合约 closed at 1,651.5 yuan/ton, up 1.69% intraday. The position of the主力 contract was 27,065 lots at the close, a decrease of 2,216 lots from the previous trading day. The spot price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke decreased by 2.99% week - on - week, while that of Qingdao Port remained flat. Coke daily output increased, but the daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills decreased, and the steel mill profitability rate dropped to 35.06%. In December, there is still uncertainty in coking coal supply, and the Politburo meeting may bring macro - level benefits, which creates resistance to further decline of coke futures. The main contract rebounded slightly at the lower edge of the trading range [6][37]. - On December 4, the coking coal主力合约 closed at 1,091.5 points, up 1.11% intraday. The position of the main contract was 350,729 lots at the close, a decrease of 41,446 lots from the previous trading day. The spot price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 6.3% week - on - week. In November, coking coal production increased, and imports accelerated, resulting in insufficient supply - side support and a weakening market sentiment. However, considering the December Politburo economic meeting and the end - of - year coal mine production reduction expectation, there is resistance to further decline of coking coal futures. The focus remains on coal mine production [7][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - From January to October this year, global new ship order volume was 1,632 vessels and 94.87 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decline of 44.5%. It is expected that the average annual demand in the global shipbuilding market during the 15th Five - Year Plan period will be about 110 million deadweight tons and 42 million compensated gross tons, a decrease of about 20% compared with the average of the 14th Five - Year Plan period but still about 50% higher than that of the 13th Five - Year Plan period [9]. - On December 4, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur primary coking coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1,500 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [10]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - first - class Coke (Flat - price) | 1,620 yuan/ton | - 2.99% | - 2.99% | - 4.14% | - 9.50% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - first - class Coke (Out - of - warehouse) | 1,450 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 13.17% | | Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 1,200 yuan/ton | - 6.25% | - 6.25% | 1.69% | - 9.77% | | Jingtang Port Australian - produced Coking Coal | 1,570 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.37% | - 1.26% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced Coking Coal | 1,650 yuan/ton | - 3.51% | - 3.51% | 7.84% | - 2.37% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,651.5 | 1.69% | 1,667.5 | 1,615.0 | 196,462 | 2,295 | 27,065 | - 2,216 | | Coking Coal | | 1,091.5 | 1.11% | 1,096.5 | 1,059.5 | 337,231 | - 85,112 | 350,729 | - 41,446 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port coke, 247 steel mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [15][16][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of coking coal at mine mouths, ports, 247 sample steel mills, and full - sample independent coking plants from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][25]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [29][30][32]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The outlook for coke is similar to the core view, with the main contract rebounding slightly due to supply uncertainty and potential macro - level benefits, and attention should be paid to coal mine production [37]. - The outlook for coking coal is also in line with the core view, with resistance to further decline due to the Politburo meeting and end - of - year production reduction expectation, and the key lies in coal mine production [38].

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 期货研究报告 从业资格证号：F3035632 沪铜 昨夜沪铜高开高走，今日铜价维持强势运行，日内屡次站上 9.1 万关口，沪铜持仓量持续上升至 63 万手。宏观层面，降息预期持续 升温，利好有色。12 月降息概率已接近 90%，美元指数持续走弱。产 业层面，国内电解铜社库去化，下游接受度上升，伦铜和沪铜现货 升水均走强。技术层面，铜价增仓突破 9 万关口，短期上行动能较 强。 沪铝 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 4 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色普涨，沪铜站上 9 万关口 核心观点 今日铝价冲高回落，沪铝持仓量有所上升，主力期价 ...

Report Summary - Report Date: December 4, 2025 - Report Type: Steel & Iron Ore Daily Report - Author: Tu Weihua 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuated, recording a daily increase of 0.35%, with increasing volume and open interest. Currently, rebar supply has dropped to a low level, supporting prices, but demand is also weakening. The fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially in the situation of weak supply and demand, and the upward driving force is questionable. The relative advantage is the low valuation. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The main contract price fluctuated, recording a daily increase of 0.33%, with increasing volume and open interest, and the position transfer was completed. At present, the supply pressure of hot - rolled coils has been relieved to a limited extent, while the demand has been continuously weakening, and the fundamentals are weak. The coil price continues to be under pressure. The relative advantage is the optimistic expectation brought by the approaching major meeting. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate and bottom - seek. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price fluctuated weakly, recording a daily decline of 0.63%, with increasing volume and decreasing open interest, and the position transfer was about to be completed. Currently, the previous bullish factors have supported the ore price to return to a high level, but the demand for iron ore is running weakly, while the supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the over - valued ore price continues to be under pressure, with a weak upward driving force. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price will continue to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Urban Old Community Reconstruction**: From January to October 2025, 25,100 urban old communities across China started reconstruction. 16 regions have completed their annual urban old community reconstruction plans, and the national plan for the year is to start reconstructing 25,000 communities [7]. - **Global New Ship Orders**: From January to October this year, affected by factors such as economic slowdown, over - capacity, and international game, the global ship market declined significantly. A total of 1,632 new ship orders were placed, with a deadweight tonnage of 94.87 million, a year - on - year decline of 44.5%. It is expected that the average annual demand in the global shipbuilding market during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period will be about 110 million deadweight tons and 42 million compensated gross tons, about 20% lower than the average during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, but still about 50% higher than the average during the "13th Five - Year Plan" period [8]. - **Canadian Steel Mill Shutdown**: Algoma Steel in Canada plans to close its blast furnaces and coking production facilities in early 2026 and lay off about 1,000 employees due to the impact of US tariff policies. The company will also advance its transformation plan to early 2026, fully switching to the electric arc furnace steel - making process. In the three months ending September 30, the company's direct tariff cost reached 89.7 million Canadian dollars (about 64.1 million US dollars), and the freight volume to the US accounted for about half of the total steel sales [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price was 3,270 yuan, the Tianjin price was 3,210 yuan, and the national average price was 3,327 yuan, with price changes of 0, - 10, and - 2 respectively [10]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The Shanghai price was 3,310 yuan, the Tianjin price was 3,240 yuan, and the national average price was 3,331 yuan, with price changes of 0, 0, and - 1 respectively [10]. - Tangshan Steel Billet: The price was 2,990 yuan, with no price change [10]. - Zhangjiagang Heavy Scrap: The price was 2,080 yuan, with no price change [10]. - Iron Ore: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 790 yuan, with a decrease of 7 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder was 802 yuan, with a decrease of 1 yuan. The Australian and Brazilian freight rates were 12.42 yuan and 25.42 yuan respectively, with increases of 0.18 yuan and 0.12 yuan. The SGX swap price was 107.85 yuan, with an increase of 0.45 yuan, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 108.00 yuan, with an increase of 0.20 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,175 | 0.35 | 3,175 | 3,150 | 873,461 | 122,794 | 1,411,905 | 114,799 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | - | 3,332 | 0.33 | 3,336 | 3,306 | 381,701 | 147,082 | 1,034,595 | 492,093 | | Iron Ore | - | 794.5 | - 0.63 | 799.5 | 790.5 | 186,737 | 17,247 | 293,727 | - 41,114 | [14] 3.4 Related Charts The report provides charts on steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories (steel mill + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventories, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventories. It also shows charts on steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, independent electric furnace operating rate, and the profit and loss situation of independent arc - furnace steel mills [16][21][31]. 3.5后市研判 - **Rebar**: Supply and demand are both weakening. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 167,700 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 109,600 tons. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is questionable. It is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [40]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, with limited inventory reduction. The weekly output decreased by 47,000 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 53,600 tons. The price continues to be under pressure and is expected to continue to fluctuate and bottom - seek, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [40]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak. The terminal consumption of ore is decreasing, and the supply is at a high level. The high - valued ore price continues to be under pressure, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term and intraday views of both coking coal 2601 and coke 2601 are "oscillation", and the reference view is the oscillation idea. For coking coal, it runs at a low level; for coke, there is insufficient cost support, and it is in oscillation consolidation [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. Oscillation stronger/weaker only applies to intraday views, and there is no distinction for short - term and medium - term views [1][4] 2. Main Variety Price Quotation and Calculation Method - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day's daytime trading closing price to calculate the rise - fall range. A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillation weaker, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillation stronger, and a rise of more than 1% is strong [2][3] 3. Price and Driving Logic of Coking Coal - **Price**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port in the spot market is 1200.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 6.3% [5] - **Driving Logic**: The coking coal demand side has no obvious differences, and the supply side is the core factor leading the disk trend. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission has emphasized energy supply guarantee during the heating season, reducing the market's expectation of a new round of anti - involution measures in the coal industry during the peak winter period. Also, the recent coking coal production has not been affected by the central safety production annual assessment and inspection, and the import volume has been accelerating, weakening the previous supply - side logic that supported the coal price increase. However, considering the Political Bureau Economic Meeting in December and the year - end coal mine production reduction expectation, there is some resistance to the further decline of coking coal futures. The subsequent focus is on coal mine production [5] 4. Price and Driving Logic of Coke - **Price**: The latest quotation of the flat - price index of the quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port in the spot market is 1620 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 2.99%; the ex - warehouse price of the quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat [6] - **Driving Logic**: In terms of supply and demand, the latest Steel Union data shows that the average daily coke output is 110.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.19 million tons; the average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 234.68 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6 million tons, and the steel mill profitability rate has dropped to 35.06%, with large - scale losses in steel mills and pressure on the demand side. Overall, there is still uncertainty on the coking coal supply side in December, there is some resistance to the further decline of coke futures, the main contract is consolidating at the lower edge of the oscillation range, and the subsequent focus is on the actual production of coal mines [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The synthetic rubber futures market currently shows a pattern of loose supply and demand. The price of butadiene at the cost - end is weakly oscillating. The supply - side capacity utilization rate has increased, while the demand - side is weak. It is expected that the synthetic rubber futures will maintain an oscillating bottom - building trend in the future, and the rubber price in December lacks the impetus for continuous rise [2][5]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content Supply - side Situation - In the butadiene market, due to the normal operation of some domestic petrochemical plants and new device production, as well as the expected high import volume, the supply is in a continuous loose pattern. In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's butadiene rubber was 68.13%, down 3.27 percentage points from the previous month but up 0.53 percentage points year - on - year. The output was 13.01 tons, down 0.75 tons month - on - month with a decline of 5.44% but up 8.43% year - on - year. The inventory continued to grow. By the end of November, the inventory of sample enterprises reached 3.24 tons, up 5.05% from the end of October, and the warehouse receipts of synthetic rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 1.54 tons, up 79.25% from the end of October [3]. Demand - side Situation - The tire industry, the largest consumer area of synthetic rubber, performed below expectations in November. Affected by seasonal demand decline and trade barriers, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises decreased. As of the week of November 28, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, down 3.36 percentage points week - on - week and 13.64 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, up 0.71 percentage points week - on - week and 2.68 percentage points year - on - year. Since semi - steel tires use more synthetic rubber, the significant decline in their capacity utilization rate highlights the slowdown in synthetic rubber demand [4]. Inventory and Future Outlook - With the weakening of tire enterprises' material demand, the inventory pressure of synthetic rubber is further highlighted. The average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire enterprises increased to 45.86 days, and that of all - steel tires was 40.24 days. High inventory led to low procurement willingness of tire factories. It is expected that this situation will continue in December, dragging down the overall output. Other downstream industries have no growth highlights. In general, the supply of synthetic rubber futures will remain abundant in the future, and the demand is not optimistic. The rubber price in December is expected to oscillate and build a bottom [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures products on December 4, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The basis data for power coal from November 27 to December 3, 2025, shows a decreasing trend, from 16.6 yuan/ton on November 27 to - 3.4 yuan/ton on December 3. The spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month are all 0 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, the basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from November 27 to December 3, 2025, are presented, along with their price ratios and changes [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - In the chemical sector, inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided, as well as inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from November 27 to December 3, 2025 [9]. 3.3 Black Metals - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 1 - month, and 9(10) - month minus 5 - month. Inter - commodity spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from November 27 to December 3, 2025, are also presented. The basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 27 to December 3, 2025, are shown [18][20]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 27 to December 3, 2025, are provided [29]. 3.4.2 London Market - For the London market, LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 3, 2025, are presented [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - The basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 27 to December 3, 2025, are given. Inter - period spreads for multiple agricultural products, including soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton, are provided, as well as inter - commodity spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from November 27 to December 3, 2025 [40][41]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - The basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 27 to December 3, 2025, are presented. Inter - period spreads such as next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are also provided [52].

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - Manufacturing PMI in November 2025 was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year [1] - Non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in November 2025 was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% in the same period last year [1] - Social financing scale increment in October 2025 was 816.1 billion yuan, significantly lower than 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month but higher than 1412.0 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - CPI in October 2025 increased by 0.2% year-on-year, up from -0.3% in the previous month but slightly down from 0.3% in the same period last year [1] - PPI in October 2025 decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, a smaller decline compared to -2.3% in the previous month and -2.9% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - China's logistics industry prosperity index in November was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with the business volume index also rising [2] - China's S&P composite PMI in November was 51.2, down from 51.8 in the previous month; the S&P services PMI was 52.1, down from 52.6 in the previous month. New order and new export order indices showed positive trends [2] - On December 3, 37 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 32 had negative basis.沪镍, 郑棉, and 棉纱 had the largest basis, while 丁二烯橡胶, 沪锡, and 苹果 had the smallest [2] - The US ADP employment data in November showed a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs, the largest decline since March 2023, far below market expectations, leading to a nearly 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut in December [3] - The US SEC approved CME to register a new clearing institution, which is expected to start operating by mid - 2026 to help the market comply with new regulations on Treasury and repo transactions [3] 2.2 Metals - On December 3, LME copper prices hit a record high, and the delivery order had the largest single - day increase since 2013. Shanghai copper futures also reached a new high [4] - On December 3, the price of 99.5% battery - grade domestic lithium carbonate dropped by 170 yuan to 94,300 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 1470 yuan in the past 5 days and 19,900 yuan in the past 30 days. The price of 56.5% battery - grade coarse - particle domestic lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 82,600 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 1270 yuan in the past 5 days and 9370 yuan in the past 30 days [4] - Glencore expects to reach the lower limit of its initial copper production guidance of 850,000 - 910,000 tons by 2025, but the production is uneven. The initial copper production guidance for 2026 is lowered from 93,000 tons to 84,000 tons (mid - point of the range). It aims to produce about 1.6 million tons by 2035 and exceed 1 million tons annually by the end of 2028 [5] - Glencore expects the Alumbrera mine to produce about 75,000 tons of copper in four years and about 317,000 ounces of gold during the same period. The restart capital expenditure of the Alumbrera mine is expected to be 230 million Canadian dollars. The Antamina mine's zinc production is expected to decline in fiscal year 2026 and then stabilize at about 720,000 tons per year from 2026 - 2029. The thermal coal production is expected to remain stable from 2026 - 2029 [5] - JPMorgan expects copper price increases to drive aluminum prices up to $3000 per ton in the first half of 2026. It maintains a long - term bullish view on gold, expecting the price to reach $5000 per ounce by 2026. Supply disruptions and inventory issues may push copper prices to $12,500 per ton in the first half of 2026 [6] - Goldman Sachs raised its average price forecast for LME copper in the first half of 2026 from $10,415 to $10,710 and expects LME aluminum prices to fall to $2350 per ton in Q4 2026 [6] - The ECB asked the Italian government to re - examine its proposal to declare the country's gold reserves as the property of the Italian people, which may lead to the sale of some gold reserves. The Italian central bank holds 2452 tons of gold, the world's third - largest gold reserve [7] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Glencore expects its thermal coal production to remain stable from 2026 - 2029 [8] - Vale updated its production forecast, expecting iron ore production in 2026 to be between 335 million and 345 million tons, lower than the previous range of 340 million - 360 million tons [8] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The EU reached an agreement to phase out Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2027 [9] - The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories increased by 574,000 barrels last week, contrary to the expected decrease of 2 million barrels [10] - UBS predicts that Brent crude oil prices will be around $65 per barrel in mid - 2026 and $67 per barrel at the end of 2026 [10] - JPMorgan expects Brent crude oil prices to further decline, with an average price of $58 per barrel in 2026 [10] - Russia's state oil and gas sales budget revenue in November was 530.9 billion rubles, down from 888.6 billion rubles in October [10] 2.5 Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs launched a winter crop seed supervision and inspection across the country, focusing on key crops and reserve seeds, and cracking down on illegal activities [12] - In November, Yunnan's pig prices hit a 43 - month low at 13.15 yuan/kg [12] - As of November 28, the inventory of imported soybeans at major domestic oil mills was 7 million tons, up 1.53 million tons year - on - year and 2.33 million tons higher than the three - year average. The soybean meal inventory was 1.18 million tons, up 340,000 tons year - on - year and 540,000 tons higher than the three - year average [12] - China has become Brazil's largest fertilizer supplier, with exports from January to October reaching 9.76 million tons, accounting for about 25% of Brazil's total fertilizer imports [13] - At least 6 ships are loading soybeans at the Gulfport port in the Gulf of Mexico, with a total loading capacity of at least 320,000 tons, all destined for China. A ship of soybeans set sail last weekend, the first such shipment since May [13] - Brazil may become the world's third - largest pork exporter in 2025 [13] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On December 3, the central bank conducted 79.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate of 1.40%. With 213.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 134 billion yuan [15] 3.2 Key News - China's S&P composite PMI in November was 51.2, down from 51.8 in the previous month; the S&P services PMI was 52.1, down from 52.6 in the previous month. New order and new export order indices showed positive trends [16] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of new - type urbanization in expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrading, and strengthening the domestic economic cycle. He also mentioned measures such as urban renewal and housing construction [16] - The State Council approved the "Yangtze River Delta Territorial Space Plan (2023 - 2035)", which aims to support Shanghai's leading role and promote the integration of urban agglomerations [16] - From January to November, consumer goods trade - in programs drove related product sales of over 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people. From January to October, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 6.58443 trillion yuan, a 7.5% year - on - year increase, and the service trade deficit decreased by 26.939 billion yuan [17] - In November, the retail sales of passenger cars in China were 2.263 million units, a 7% year - on - year decrease. The retail sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.354 million units, a 7% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 59.8% [17] - China's logistics industry prosperity index in November was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Energy logistics demand slowed, while industrial manufacturing and consumer logistics demand were stable [17] - The Ministry of Finance will issue 7 billion yuan of RMB treasury bonds in Hong Kong on December 10 [17] - The Shanghai branch of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange launched a green foreign debt business pilot, optimizing cross - border financing for non - financial enterprises in green and low - carbon industries [18] - ICBC is selling a 3 - year personal large - denomination certificate of deposit with a minimum deposit of 1 million yuan and an annual interest rate of 1.55%. The 3 - year fixed - deposit product has a maximum annual interest rate of 1.55% with a minimum deposit of 50 yuan [18] - Bank of Communications currently has no large - denomination certificates of deposit for sale on its mobile app, except for transferable ones. It only offers special large - denomination certificates of deposit to customers in some regions, mostly with a term of one year or less [19] - Analysts generally believe that the convertible bond market in 2026 will have solid valuation support, and investors can focus on investment opportunities in technology - growth sectors [19] - The EU reached an agreement to phase out Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2027 [9] - The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories increased by 574,000 barrels last week, contrary to the expected decrease of 2 million barrels [10] - UBS predicts that Brent crude oil prices will be around $65 per barrel in mid - 2026 and $67 per barrel at the end of 2026 [10] - JPMorgan expects Brent crude oil prices to further decline, with an average price of $58 per barrel in 2026 [10] - Russia's state oil and gas sales budget revenue in November was 530.9 billion rubles, down from 888.6 billion rubles in October [10] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market fluctuated narrowly, with most interest - rate bond yields rising, especially the 30 - year bonds. Treasury bond futures mostly rose, except for the 30 - year contract, which fell 0.26%. Bank - to - bank market liquidity was stable and loose [23] - In the exchange bond market, Vanke bonds generally slowed their decline. The Wande real - estate bond 30 index rose 0.41%, and the Wande high - yield urban investment bond index rose 0.01% [24] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed down 0.21% at 478.57 points, with a trading volume of 52.526 billion yuan. The Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.23% to 232.09 points [25] - Most money - market interest rates declined. Shibor short - term rates mostly fell, and bank - to - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds mostly remained stable [25] - The winning bid yields of Agricultural Development Bank's 1.074 - year and 10 - year financial bonds were 1.4539% and 1.9504% respectively. The weighted winning bid yields of the Ministry of Finance's 63 - day and 91 - day treasury bonds were 1.2891% and 1.3280% respectively [26] - Most European bond yields fell, and US bond yields also declined across the board [27] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.0661 against the US dollar, up 51 points from the previous trading day. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0754, up 40 points from the previous trading day [28] - In late New York trading, the US dollar index fell 0.46% to 98.87, and most non - US currencies rose [28] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that there is basically no liquidity gap in December, and the risk of the bond market from the capital side is limited. The bond - market interest rate tends to decline at the end of the year, but the space for the year - end market may be limited [29] - Yangtze River Fixed - Income notes that the CSI Convertible Bond Index usually shows a "weak before, strong after" pattern around the New Year. Last week, convertible bonds were generally weak [29] - Western Fixed - Income predicts that the bond market in 2026 will maintain a low - volatility, narrow - range oscillation pattern, with the after - tax interest - rate center of 10 - year treasury bonds between 1.7% - 1.9% [30] 4. Stock Market Key News - The A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51% to 3878 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.78%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.12%. The trading volume was 1.68 trillion yuan. AI application and lithium - battery sectors led the decline, while the coal and super - hard material sectors rose [32] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 1.28% at 25,760.73 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.58%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.68%. Southbound funds net - bought nearly HK$2.3 billion, and Alibaba was continuously added for 15 days, with a cumulative net - purchase of over HK$28.6 billion [32] - FTSE Russell announced a quarterly adjustment to the FTSE China Index series, effective after the close on December 19. The FTSE China A50 Index will include Luoyang Molybdenum and Sungrow Power, and remove Jiangsu Bank and SF Holding [33] - Most newly established active equity funds since the fourth quarter have shown signs of building positions. Although some funds have a return rate of over 10%, most build positions cautiously due to market fluctuations and year - end style switching. The industry consensus is that the AI application industry is expected to make substantial breakthroughs in 2026 [33]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is bullish, the medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is bullish with a recommendation to wait and see. The core logic is the rising expectation of interest rate cuts and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation. Also, the market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut is close to 90%, and the upward space is limited. Gold's weakness is due to the recovery of market risk appetite, and there is significant pressure above the 960 mark for short - term Shanghai gold [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all bullish, with a long - term bullish outlook. The core logic is that against the backdrop of good fundamentals, the expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, with a nearly 90% probability of a December rate cut. Since late November, there have been positive news on the supply side, such as a high long - term contract premium from Codelco and China's measures to manage copper smelting capacity. Short - term Shanghai copper has strong upward momentum after breaking through the 90,000 mark [1][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Gold prices fluctuated yesterday. Since late November, the upward momentum has come from the continuous rise in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the decline of the US dollar index [3]. - **Market Expectation**: The market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut is close to 90%, and the upward space is limited [3]. - **Weakness Reason**: Gold's weakness is mainly due to the recovery of market risk appetite [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: There is significant pressure above the 960 mark for short - term Shanghai gold [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: After the Asian session yesterday, copper prices continued to rise. Shanghai copper opened higher above the 90,000 mark during the domestic night session and continued to rise with increasing positions [4]. - **Market Expectation**: The probability of a December interest rate cut is close to 90% [4]. - **Supply - side News**: Codelco proposed a long - term contract premium of over $300 to global buyers, highlighting the tight global copper mine supply and increasing the cost of global copper trade. China is taking measures to manage copper smelting capacity and has stopped about 2 million tons of illegal capacity [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term Shanghai copper has strong upward momentum after breaking through the 90,000 mark [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view on crude oil 2601 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall reference view of bullish operation [1] - Due to the expected cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium has weakened, but the demand for crude oil is expected to improve with the arrival of the winter consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere, and the domestic crude oil futures may continue to operate in a bullish pattern on Thursday [5] Group 3: Summary by Category Time - cycle Views - For crude oil 2601, short - term (within a week) is oscillatory, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is oscillatory, and intraday is bullish [1] Price Movement Calculation Rules - For varieties with night trading, calculate the price change from the night - trading closing price to the day - trading closing price; for those without night trading, calculate from the previous day's closing price to the day - trading closing price [2] Strength Classification Rules - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered bearish, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered bullish, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong [3] Scope of Strength Classification - The bullish/bearish classification only applies to intraday views, not short - term and medium - term views [4] Price Movement Logic - The expected cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict weakens the geopolitical premium and the rebound power of international oil prices. The arrival of the winter consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere improves the demand expectation, and the domestic crude oil futures showed an oscillatory and stable trend on Wednesday night, with a slight increase in price, and may continue to be bullish on Thursday [5]