1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Cotton**: The ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.41% to 67.53 cents per pound on Tuesday, and CF601 decreased 0.11% to 14,100 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions increased by 2,482 lots to 488,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang dropped by 2 yuan to 1,500 yuan per ton, while the China Cotton Price Index (Grade 3128B) rose by 9 yuan to 15,243 yuan per ton. Internationally, the macro - level is the focus, and both the U.S. dollar index and U.S. cotton prices are oscillating. Fundamentally, the supply - demand pattern of U.S. cotton in the new year has a marginal narrowing, with a year - on - year decrease in the inventory - to - sales ratio, but the driving force is limited. Domestically, the market sentiment is warm, but the correlation between the Shanghai Composite Index and commodity or Zhengzhou cotton indices is not strong, so it provides support rather than an upward drive. New cotton is likely to have a good harvest, and the overall domestic supply - demand pattern has little contradiction, with a slightly lower expected inventory - to - sales ratio. In July, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a slight monthly increase but still at a low level, and the import volume in the new year is expected to be low. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton has support at the bottom, but needs more upward drive with the approaching of new cotton harvest and listing, and is expected to be in a firm oscillation in the short term [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil exported 1.8832 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of August, with a daily average of 171,200 tons. In August 2024, Brazil's sugar export volume was 3.9208 million tons, with a daily average of 178,200 tons. The spot quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups remained stable, and most processing sugar mills' quotes were also stable, with only a few down 20 yuan. The raw sugar futures price fluctuated narrowly. Brazil is in the peak production period, with poor - quality sugar and a high sugar - making ratio maintaining production. Domestically, the quotes are flat without new drivers, and the July import data has been digested. Future import situations in the following months need attention, and the futures price is expected to continue narrow - range oscillation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - **Cotton**: The daily performance of ICE U.S. cotton, CF601, and the main - contract positions are presented. The prices of cotton in Xinjiang and the China Cotton Price Index are given. The international market is affected by macro factors, and the domestic market has a warm sentiment but weak correlation with the stock index. New cotton is likely to have a good harvest, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively stable. The short - term view is firm oscillation [1]. - **Sugar**: The export data of Brazil in August and the spot quotes of domestic sugar - making groups and processing sugar mills are provided. The raw sugar futures price has narrow - range fluctuations, and the domestic market lacks new drivers, with the futures price expected to oscillate narrowly [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is - 280, up 15; the main - contract basis is 1,143, up 34. The spot prices in Xinjiang, the whole country, and Nanning are given [2]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 60, down 11; the main - contract basis is 339, up 11 [2]. Market Information - **Cotton**: On August 19, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 166 to 7,596, with 249 valid forecasts. The arrival prices in different regions of China are provided. The yarn and short - fiber cloth comprehensive loads remained unchanged, while the inventories decreased slightly [4]. - **Sugar**: On August 19, the spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou remained unchanged. The sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 445 to 16,486, with 1 valid forecast [4][5]. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: Multiple charts are presented, including the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index of cotton [8][11][13]. - **Sugar**: Charts such as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar are shown [16][19]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry, and has won many analyst awards [21]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures, and has won many honors [22]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research on cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy, and won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile senior analyst title in 2024 [23].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 19, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 1.79% to 87,540 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 1,100 yuan/ton to 85,700 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also increased 1,100 yuan/ton to 83,400 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) went up 1,000 yuan/ton to 77,740 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased 60 tons to 23,615 tons [3]. - Jiangte Motor's subsidiary, Yichun Yinli, will resume production after equipment maintenance. The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons. It is expected that the supply in August will increase by 3% to 84,200 tons. The lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% to 86,000 tons LCE. The total social inventory decreased by 162 tons to 142,256 tons, with upstream destocking and restocking in other and downstream sectors [3]. - The suspension of mining operations has slightly adjusted the oversupply of resources, but there are still uncertainties in other mines. The lithium ore price has exceeded $1,000/ton, providing some support for lithium prices. The price reached over 90,000 yuan/ton this week. With the news of resumption of production and increased imports, there may be a short - term correction, but further attention should be paid to supply disruptions in the resource end [3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Ore Prices The report presents charts of prices for various lithium ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lithium mica (with different Li₂O contents), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (with different Li₂O contents) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8][10]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices Charts show the prices of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [12][14][16]. 3.3 Price Spreads The report includes charts analyzing price spreads such as the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and price differences between domestic and CIF prices for lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate, as well as the basis from 2024 to 2025 [18][20][21]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials Charts display the prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide from 2024 to 2025 [22][25][28]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices The report provides charts of prices for 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][33][34]. 3.6 Inventory Charts show the downstream, smelter, and other环节 inventories of lithium carbonate from December 26, 2024, to August 14, 2025 [35][37][38]. 3.7 Production Costs A chart presents the production costs and profits of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][40][41]. 4. Research Team - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and has won multiple industry awards [43]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon [44]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel [44]. 5. Contact Information - Company address: 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper prices fluctuated weakly, and the domestic spot import window opened. The market is cautious ahead of the Jackson Hole "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting" and Powell's speech. Domestically, measures are proposed to stabilize the real - estate market. LME copper inventory decreased by 450 tons, Comex inventory increased by 792 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts remained stable, and BC copper decreased by 5571 tons. With the end of the seasonal off - season approaching, downstream orders are expected to pick up. Copper prices are in a narrow - range fluctuation, with a balance between bulls and bears waiting for external factors to break the current shock [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Alumina's fundamental support weakened, but short - term deep decline is restricted. As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, the pressure from short - sellers may ease. Aluminum ingot casting volume increased, and some terminal sectors are stocking up in advance, resulting in an irregular inventory build - up. Electrolytic aluminum is in a "time - for - space" rhythm, and inventory trends and early peak - season start signals need to be tracked [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.73% and Shanghai nickel fell 0.23%. LME inventory decreased by 1086 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 210 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the imported nickel premium was stable. Nickel ore premiums in Indonesia slightly declined. Stainless - steel raw material prices were divided, and the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 2.48% week - on - week. The overall fundamentals of nickel remained stable, showing a fluctuating trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 175 yuan/ton, and the flat - water copper premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 450 tons, COMEX inventory increased by 4 tons, and the total domestic + bonded area social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased by 50 yuan/ton. The price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi remained unchanged, and the spot premium was stable. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons, and the total inventory increased by 7039 tons. The alumina social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel over Wuxi increased by 250 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1086 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 210 tons, and the total nickel inventory increased by 768 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.6%, and the LME S3 price remained unchanged. The SHFE - LME ratio decreased. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The domestic and imported zinc spot premiums remained unchanged. LME zinc inventory decreased by 3650 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.49 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.1%, and the LME S3 price decreased by 2.1%. The SHFE - LME ratio increased. The SMM spot price decreased by 600 yuan/ton. The 60% and 40% tin concentrate prices decreased by 3500 yuan/ton. LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons, and SHFE tin inventory decreased by 13 tons [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **3.2.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **3.2.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - **3.2.3 LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **3.2.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - **3.2.5 Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **3.2.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.3 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won multiple industry awards [50]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [50]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [51].

Research View - On August 19th, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,625 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 1.26%, and the position decreased by 11,014 lots to 287,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,615 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rose back to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 340 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 52,260 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.53%, and the position increased by 2,459 lots to 138,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 47,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 7,670 yuan/ton [2]. - Industrial silicon production in the southwest continued to increase, while the organic silicon industry reduced production and procurement. The growth of polysilicon output was expected to be limited, and the inventory depletion of industrial silicon slowed down. There was obvious upward pressure, and it would still follow the fluctuation rhythm of coal and coke within the range [2]. - There was a strong separation between quantity and price in polysilicon. There was a contradiction between cost - based pricing and rising production. Warehouse receipt registration was difficult to relieve the pressure on factory warehouses. Market news about price adjustments and production cuts was complex with many differences, and the positive feedback from downstream was limited. It was difficult to continue to rise sharply, and short - selling at the upper edge of the range could be continued. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of production cuts and whether the inventory pressure could be reduced [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased from 8,735 yuan/ton on August 18th to 8,640 yuan/ton on August 19th, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton; the near - month contract decreased from 8,720 yuan/ton to 8,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: Most of the prices of different grades and regions remained stable, with only a few varieties showing price changes. For example, the price of 421 silicon (for organic silicon use, East China) decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon (for organic silicon use, Kunming) also decreased by 100 yuan/ton [4]. - Current lowest deliverable price: It remained at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased from 230 yuan/ton to 340 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipt remained at 50,710 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased from 251,700 tons to 252,995 tons, an increase of 1,295 tons. The factory warehouse inventory increased from 267,300 tons to 268,400 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons. The total social inventory increased by 100 tons to 439,900 tons [4]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased from 52,280 yuan/ton on August 18th to 52,260 yuan/ton on August 19th, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the near - month contract decreased from 52,280 yuan/ton to 52,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The price of N - type polysilicon dense material increased from 44,000 yuan/ton to 46,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan/ton; the price of N - type recycled polysilicon material increased from 45,500 yuan/ton to 47,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton; the price of N - type granular silicon material increased from 34,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. The price of P - type polysilicon dense material and P - type recycled polysilicon material remained unchanged [4]. - Current lowest deliverable price: It remained at 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed from 7,780 yuan/ton to 7,670 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: The polysilicon warehouse receipt remained at 5,820 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased from 108,600 tons to 168,000 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons. The factory warehouse inventory decreased from 273,400 tons to 267,900 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 268,000 tons [4]. Organic Silicon - Spot prices: The DMC East China market price decreased from 11,500 yuan/ton to 11,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton; the price of raw rubber decreased from 12,500 yuan/ton to 12,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of 107 glue decreased from 12,000 yuan/ton to 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 12,000 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,300 yuan/ton [4]. Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - End Prices - The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. Downstream Product Prices - The charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. Inventory - The charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][22]. Cost and Profit - The charts show the average cost levels, average profit levels, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a medium - level investment analyst of gold, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [34]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [34]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [35].

Report Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various black commodities on August 20, 2025. It provides short - term outlooks for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, with most expected to show weak or volatile trends due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, production changes, and market sentiment [1][3] Summary by Section Research View - **Steel**: The rebar futures price fell, with the 2510 contract closing at 3126 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. Spot prices also declined, and trading volume decreased. Rebar has been accumulating inventory above the seasonal norm, and weak credit and investment data in July have weakened the supply - demand fundamentals. Some Tangshan steel mills received short - term production restriction notices, but production decline was limited. Meanwhile, some enterprises in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region received work - stoppage notices, further reducing demand. The short - term outlook is for a weak and volatile trend [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2601 price dropped to 768 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. Australian shipments were stable with a slight increase, and Brazilian shipments increased significantly. The global iron ore shipment volume rose. Iron ore demand, measured by hot metal production, fluctuated slightly at 240.66 tons. Both port and steel mill inventories increased. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price rose, with the 2601 contract closing at 1194.5 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. Some domestic mines resumed production, and downstream procurement slowed. However, hot metal production remained high, and coking enterprises' profits improved, leading to high production enthusiasm. The short - term outlook is for a volatile trend [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures price increased, with the 2601 contract closing at 1708.5 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. Coking enterprises' production profits continued to improve, and they were highly motivated to produce. Steel mills' demand for coke remained stable, but low steel prices squeezed steel mill profits, making some downstream parties cautious about coke price increases. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5842 yuan/ton, down 2.92%. The overall black sector was weak, and alloy prices led the decline. Production increased due to improved profits, while demand remained low, and cost support was weak. The short - term outlook is for wide - range volatility [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price also weakened, with the main contract closing at 5678 yuan/ton, down 3.53%. The black sector was weak, and alloy prices led the decline. Downstream production restriction expectations limited demand, while supply increased significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range volatile [3] Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: The report provides the latest contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, along with their daily changes [4] - **Profit and Price Ratios**: It also presents data on rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, and various price ratios such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar ratio, rebar to iron ore ratio, etc., along with their daily changes [4] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report includes historical price charts of the main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows historical basis charts for these commodities, which help analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][19] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides historical inter - period contract spread charts for different commodities, which are useful for analyzing price differences between different contract periods [26][28] - **Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: It includes charts of inter - commodity contract spreads such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar ratio, rebar to iron ore ratio, etc., to analyze the relative price relationships between different commodities [41][42] - **Rebar Profits**: The report presents historical profit charts for rebar, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit, to analyze rebar's profitability [45][47] Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the varieties in the report are rated as "Oscillating", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][3][5][7][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices continued to decline due to geopolitical factors and inventory data. The current demand lacks highlights, and the supply is expected to increase, so the oil price will continue to operate weakly [1][3] - The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient supply and weak demand, while the high - sulfur market may be supported by reduced supply starting from September [3] - The asphalt market is expected to see a pattern of both supply and demand increasing in August, and the price will fluctuate within a range [3] - The polyester market has a stable supply - demand situation, and the prices of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol are expected to fluctuate with the oil price [5] - The rubber market is affected by factors such as rainfall, raw material prices, and tire demand, and the short - term price will oscillate [5] - The methanol market will maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure, and the price will oscillate narrowly [7] - The polyolefin market will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, and the price will oscillate narrowly [7][8] - The polyvinyl chloride market has high - level supply and improving demand, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the price of WTI September contract dropped by $1.07 to $62.35 per barrel, a decline of 1.69%. The Brent October contract fell by $0.81 to $65.79 per barrel, a decline of 1.22%. SC2510 closed at 480.9 yuan per barrel, down 4.2 yuan or 0.87%. Geopolitical factors and inventory data affected the price. The current demand is weak, and the supply is expected to rise, so the price will oscillate [1][3] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2509) fell 0.26% to 2,698 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2510) fell 0.12% to 3,454 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur market is under pressure from supply, while the high - sulfur market may be supported in September. The price will oscillate [3] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2509) rose 0.14% to 3,455 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of August, and the demand is expected to recover. The price will oscillate [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,734 yuan per ton, down 0.25%. EG2509 closed at 4,424 yuan per ton, up 1.79%. PX supply and demand continued to recover, and the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol are expected to oscillate [5] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) rose 55 yuan to 15,875 yuan per ton. The production and demand situation affected the price, and the short - term price will oscillate [5] - **Methanol**: The supply is currently at a low level but will gradually recover. The port inventory will increase in the short term, and the price will oscillate [7] - **Polyolefin**: The subsequent production will remain high, and the demand is expected to pick up in the peak season. The price will oscillate narrowly [7][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply is high, and the demand is gradually improving. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical varieties on August 19, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - The American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that in the week of August 15, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.417 million barrels, more than the analyst's expectation [12] - The Whiting refinery of BP in the United States was affected by floods caused by a thunderstorm, but the specific impact on production was not specified [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [14][16][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [32][34][38] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [47][49][52] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal and external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread [63][66][68] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some varieties, such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol and PP [71] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional titles in the energy - chemical research field [78][79][80][81]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Stock Index Futures: Neutral (Oscillation) [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: Bearish in the short term, neutral (oscillation) in the long term [2] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The recent rise in the stock market is mainly due to three logics. Long - term: The market anticipates fiscal policy to shift more towards promoting consumption and an increase in the domestic inflation level after the easing of Sino - US relations. Medium - term: The anti - involution trend and infrastructure investment on the demand side benefit upstream cyclical sectors. Short - term: The capital market has relatively abundant liquidity, with funds flowing in due to RMB appreciation and improved enterprise deposit and loan data [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: In the short term, the bond market is under pressure due to the recovery of risk appetite. However, there are no significant changes in the capital and fundamental aspects, and the bond market lacks directional drivers. It should be treated with an oscillation mindset in the long term [2] 3. Summary by Section **Research Views** - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 19, the A - share market fluctuated with increased trading volume. The Wind All - A index fell by 0.05% with a trading volume of 2.64 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose by 0.07%, while the CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices fell by 0.19%, 0.93%, and 0.38% respectively. Personal consumption loan subsidy policies and the implementation of the parenting subsidy system are expected to boost the economy. The central bank may purchase national debt to support more inclusive fiscal policies [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 19, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts rose by 0.26%, 0.06%, 0.06%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 increased [2] **Daily Price Changes** - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 19, compared with August 18, IH fell by 1.16%, IF by 0.51%, IC by 0.12%, and IM by 0.10%. Among the stock indices, the SSE 50 fell by 0.93%, the CSI 300 by 0.38%, the CSI 500 by 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 rose by 0.07% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 19, compared with August 18, TS rose by 0.03%, TF by 0.08%, T by 0.04%, and TL by 0.39% [3] **Market News** - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 1.35839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Among them, tax revenue was 1.10933 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and non - tax revenue was 249.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2% [4] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 30 billion yuan of 91 - day book - entry discount treasury bonds on August 20 [4] **Chart Analysis** - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the historical trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC contracts [6][7][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the historical trends, basis trends, and cross - period spread trends of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts, as well as the yields of treasury bonds [12][15][16] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes the historical trends of the US dollar - RMB, euro - RMB exchange rates, forward exchange rates, and other exchange rate - related data [20][21][22]

Report Summary 1. Index Performance - On August 14th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.46% to close at 3666.44 points, with a trading volume of 949.464 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.87% to 11451.43 points, with a trading volume of 1329.745 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index declined 1.24%, with a trading volume of 513.604 billion yuan, opening at 7072.9, closing at 6976.49, hitting a high of 7077.81 and a low of 6957.4 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index decreased 1.2%, with a trading volume of 367.96 billion yuan, opening at 6509.21, closing at 6429.85, reaching a high of 6519.79 and a low of 6411.92 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.59%, with a trading volume of 131.056 billion yuan, opening at 2815.49, closing at 2829.47, hitting a high of 2858.01 and a low of 2815.49 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 87.84 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Medicine and Biology, Power Equipment, and Electronics significantly dragging the index down [3]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 78.25 points from the previous close, with sectors like National Defense and Military Industry, Medicine and Biology, and Electronics having a notable negative impact [3]. - The SSE 300 Index declined 3.27 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Non - Banking Finance, Electronics, and Power Equipment pulling the index up, while Automobiles, Medicine and Biology, and Communications dragging it down [3]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 16.49 points from the previous close, with sectors like Electronics, Non - Banking Finance, and Banks contributing to the increase [3]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average basis of - 0.48, IM01 - 66.22, IM02 - 241.2, and IM03 - 412.97 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average basis of - 3.47, IC01 - 56.93, IC02 - 196.32, and IC03 - 320.4 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average basis of - 0.63, IF01 - 9.92, IF02 - 36.25, and IF03 - 64.28 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average basis of 0.34, IH01 0.99, IH02 1.91, and IH03 2.42 [12]. 4. Futures Rollover Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on IM, IC, IF, and IH rollover point differences and their corresponding annualized costs are presented in the report, including specific values at different time points [20][23][24][26]

Report Overview - The report is the "Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" released by Everbright Futures on August 15, 2025, focusing on iron ore futures contract spreads, basis, and variety spreads [1] Contract Spreads - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts decreased by 21.0, 14.5, and 20.0 respectively compared to the previous day [3] - **Spread Changes**: The spreads of I05 - I09, I09 - I01, and I01 - I05 were -38.0, 16.0, and 22.0 respectively, with changes of -6.5, 5.5, and 1.0 compared to the previous day [3] Basis Data - **Price Changes**: Most iron ore varieties' prices decreased, such as a 10.0 decrease for Carajás fines and a 15.0 decrease for BRBF [6] - **Basis Changes**: The basis of most varieties increased, like Carajás fines' basis increasing by 9 and BRBF's by 4 [6] Charts - The report provides multiple basis charts for different types of iron ore, including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, etc [8][9][10] Variety Spreads Data - **Spread Changes**: Some spreads increased, like PB lump - PB fines increasing by 3.0, while others decreased, like BRBF - PB fines decreasing by 2.0 [13] Charts - The report presents various charts for variety spreads, such as block - powder spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, etc [14][15][16][18][19][20] Rule Adjustments - **New Deliverable Varieties**: Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate) were added with brand premiums of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [11] - **Premium Adjustments**: Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest are 0 yuan/ton [11] - **Quality Premium Adjustments**: The allowable range of iron grade was adjusted, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for iron element premium was introduced [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Oscillating [1] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [1] - Glass: Oscillating [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea futures prices declined weakly on Thursday, with the 09 contract closing at 1,715 yuan/ton, a 0.75% drop, and the 01 contract at 1,726 yuan/ton, a 1.76% decline. The spot market was weak, and some mainstream regions saw slight price cuts. Supply was stable, while demand was weak, and there may be price cuts for sales in the future. The futures market will continue to oscillate slightly, and short - term sentiment is weak [1]. - Soda ash futures prices were firm and oscillating on Thursday, with the 01 contract closing at 1,400 yuan/ton, a 0.36% decline, and the 09 contract at 1,294 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase. The spot market was mostly stable, but prices in some regions dropped. Supply pressure increased, and demand was weak. The futures market is driven by certain expectations, and the price difference between months has widened, but the supply - demand situation is still weak [1]. - Glass futures prices were weakly oscillating on Thursday, with the 01 contract closing at 1,220 yuan/ton, a 1.37% decline, and the 09 contract at 1,053 yuan/ton, a 2.23% decline. The spot market was weak, and demand was insufficient, but the trading atmosphere was slowly improving. The futures market is affected by external factors and will continue to oscillate slightly in the short term [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Urea - On August 14, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 3,823, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 50 valid forecasts [4]. - On August 14, the daily output of the urea industry was 194,400 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous working day and 24,100 tons from the same period last year. The daily start - up rate was 83.97%, a 6.73% increase from 77.24% in the same period last year [4]. - On August 14, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1,720 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decline; Henan 1,740 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei 1,740 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decline; Anhui 1,740 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jiangsu 1,730 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shanxi 1,620 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - On August 13, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, a weekly increase of 69,800 tons, or 7.86% [4]. Market Information - Soda Ash & Glass - On August 14, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 10,192, an increase of 917 from the previous trading day, with 1,001 valid forecasts. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 3,243, a decrease of 300 from the previous trading day [6]. - On August 14, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions were as follows. Some regions saw price cuts for heavy soda ash [6]. - As of August 14, the weekly output of soda ash was 761,300 tons, an increase of 16,600 tons, or 2.24%. The capacity utilization rate was 87.32%, a weekly increase of 1.91 percentage points [6]. - As of August 14, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1,893,800 tons, an increase of 17,600 tons from Monday, or 0.94%, and an increase of 28,700 tons from last Thursday, or 1.54% [6]. - On August 14, the average price of the float glass market was 1,164 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2 yuan/ton. The daily output of the industry was 159,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day [6]. - As of August 14, the total inventory of domestic float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million weight boxes, a weekly increase of 1.579 million weight boxes, or 2.55%, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from last week [7]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts, including those showing urea and soda ash basis, trading volume and open interest of main contracts, price differences between different contracts, spot price trends, and price differences between different varieties [9][11][15]. Research Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for different research areas related to futures products and have rich experience and many honors [22].