Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton and sugar are both "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.21% to 67.59 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.32% to 14,155 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions increased by 15,397 lots to 471,300 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,060 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index Grade 3128B was 15,214 yuan per ton, up 26 yuan. The USDA August report was bullish, but the market had no sustained reaction. The focus is on the macro - level, with a high probability of a September interest rate cut. Domestically, the market will shift focus to new cotton. Although a harvest increase is certain, the current low cotton price has factored this in. The import and initial inventory are expected to be low in the new year, and the inventory - to - sales ratio will decline significantly. Before new cotton is listed, the center of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices may oscillate upward [1] - For sugar, India will allow 4 - 5 million tons of sugar to be converted to ethanol production in the 2025/26 season. The spot prices in Guangxi and Yunnan increased by 10 - 20 yuan per ton, and the processing sugar mill prices adjusted by 10 - 20 yuan per ton. Raw sugar failed to continue its rebound, facing pressure above 17 cents. Domestically, the spot trading recovered, but the futures price was in a dilemma at night. It is expected to oscillate narrowly, waiting for import data and raw sugar guidance [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Cotton: Current price trends, trading volume changes, and market reactions to USDA reports are presented. The macro - situation and domestic new cotton supply - demand are analyzed, and the price trend before new cotton listing is predicted [1] - Sugar: Information on India's sugar - to - ethanol policy, domestic spot price adjustments, raw sugar trends, and domestic futures price trends are provided, and the future price trend is judged [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 contract spread was - 280, up 20; the main - contract basis was 1059, up 1; the Xinjiang spot price was 15,060 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan, and the national spot price was 15,214 yuan per ton, up 26 yuan [2] - Sugar: The 9 - 1 contract spread was 59, down 15; the main - contract basis was 341, up 8; the Nanning spot price was 5980 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6000 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan [2] 3. Market Information - On August 14, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 84 to 7922, with 273 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported. The yarn comprehensive load rose to 49.4, the yarn comprehensive inventory decreased to 29.3, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load remained at 48.4, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory decreased to 33.1 [3] - On August 14, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou increased by 10 yuan per ton. The sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 245 to 17,284, with no valid forecasts [3][4] 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are presented, including those for cotton and sugar futures prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices, which visually show the historical trends of these data [6][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper showed a weakening trend. The US July PPI data dampened market expectations of significant Fed rate - cuts. Domestically, the M2 - M1 gap narrowed. There are still differences in the market's view of US copper prospects. With US copper over - stocking, there is a risk of inventory relocation, which may impact global copper prices. However, the approaching "Golden September" season and anti - cut - throat competition policy expectations provide some support, and the price is likely to maintain a balance between bulls and bears for now [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina was weakening, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy were strengthening. In August, the profit in the aluminum industry shifted from upstream to downstream. There is an expectation of over - supply due to the resumption of alumina production, but short - term cost support limits the decline. The signing of an aluminum cooperation agreement between India and Russia may lead to higher US tariffs on them, increasing trade cost concerns. As "Golden September" approaches, the supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum is showing signs of change, and the aluminum price is in a stage of trading time for space with an expectation of recovery. Aluminum alloy is in a tug - of - war between cost and demand, waiting for the peak season [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. Inventory increased slightly. The raw material prices of stainless steel were differentiated, and the market sentiment improved with continuous inventory digestion. Overall, the fundamentals changed little and showed a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: US July PPI rose to 3.3% year - on - year, the highest since February 2025, and 0.9% month - on - month, the largest since June 2022. Domestically, the M2 - M1 gap shrank. Market views on US copper vary due to over - stocking. The approaching "Golden September" and anti - cut - throat competition policies support the price, and it maintains a balance between bulls and bears [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina (AO2509) closed at 3230 yuan/ton, down 0.55%, with an increase in positions. Shanghai aluminum (AL2509) closed at 20760 yuan/ton, up 0.67%, with a decrease in positions. Aluminum alloy (AD2511) closed at 20175 yuan/ton, up 0.22%, with a decrease in positions. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3248 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot changed from discount to premium. Aluminum rod and bar processing fees showed different trends. In August, the profit shifted from upstream to downstream. The resumption of alumina production increased over - supply expectations, but cost support limited the decline. The India - Russia aluminum cooperation agreement may lead to higher US tariffs, and the approaching "Golden September" led to early stocking in some sectors, with the supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum showing signs of change [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 1.25% to 15050 dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 1.19% to 120620 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 42 tons to 211140 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 142 tons to 20720 tons. The LME0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium was stable at 400 yuan/ton. The price of nickel ore in Indonesia decreased slightly. The raw material prices of stainless steel were differentiated, with the nickel - iron transaction price rising. The social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 2.48% week - on - week, and the market sentiment improved. The domestic nickel inventory increased slightly in August, and the overall fundamentals showed little change and were volatile [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 79385 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread increased by 227 yuan/ton. The inventory in LME and COMEX increased, and the total social inventory remained unchanged. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton, and the import loss of the active contract increased by 220 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16750 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingot in East China decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The prices of lead concentrates and processing fees in some regions decreased slightly. The LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories decreased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased, and the spot changed from discount to a 10 - yuan/ton premium. The prices of raw materials such as aluminum ore and alumina remained stable. The processing fees of some downstream products changed. The LME inventory increased by 1050 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 3913 tons. The import loss of the active contract increased by 19 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 400 yuan/ton. The prices of some nickel - related products remained stable or changed slightly. The LME inventory increased by 42 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory increased by 444 tons. The import loss of the active contract increased by 680 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.6% to 22540 yuan/ton. The LmeS3 price remained stable. The domestic and import zinc premiums remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 1025 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 793 tons. The social inventory increased by 1.11 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.6% to 268590 yuan/ton, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The prices of tin concentrates increased. The LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories increased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts 1 - 6 show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][10]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts 7 - 12 show the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][16][18]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts 13 - 18 show the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts 19 - 24 show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts 25 - 30 show the social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts 31 - 36 show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless steel smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. With more than a decade of commodity research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has been interviewed by many media. His team has won awards such as the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Awards of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the 2016 Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team title of the Shanghai Futures Exchange [47]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry, tracks the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations, and has written many in - depth reports [47]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. Focused on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, she tracks the new energy industry chain and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations, and has written many in - depth reports [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 14, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.28% to 85,300 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 950 yuan/ton to 79,750 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 1,050 yuan/ton to 73,040 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 260 tons to 21,939 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons. It is expected that the supply in August will increase by 3% to 84,200 tons. In terms of demand, the lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% to 86,000 tons of LCE. In terms of inventory, the total social inventory decreased by 162 tons to 142,256 tons, with upstream destocking and restocking in other and downstream sectors [3]. - Against the background of anti - involution and sustained demand, short - term production suspension has boosted market sentiment. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid rise, and the market may fluctuate in the short term. The production suspension of mines can adjust the supply - demand balance of lithium resources, but the suspension period needs attention. As prices rise, some enterprises may resume production, and overseas imports are expected to increase. Future focus should be on actual lithium salt supply, overseas import increments, terminal customer supply, and potential issues with other mining licenses [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 85,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 73,480 yuan/ton, down 9,140 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 937 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,300 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,075 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [5]. - Lithium salts and other products: Various lithium salts, lithium hydroxides, and other product prices showed different degrees of increase or remained stable, and there were also corresponding changes in price differences [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and lithium phosphate - aluminum ore (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. 3.3 Price Differences - Charts display the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][21]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials, as well as the price trends of lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][29]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][33]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from December 2024 to August 2025 [35][37]. 3.7 Production Costs - Charts display the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [39][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The steel market is expected to undergo weak consolidation. The rebar futures price decreased, with the 2510 contract closing at 3189 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton or 1.02% from the previous trading day. Spot prices also fell, and trading volume declined. Supply - demand data was weak, with a slight drop in rebar production, a significant increase in inventory, and a decline in apparent demand. Weak RMB loans in July affected market sentiment [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate. The main contract i2601 price dropped to 775 yuan/ton, down 2.94% from the previous settlement price. Global iron ore shipments decreased, iron - making production declined, and port and steel mill inventories increased [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The 2601 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton or 2.49%. The resumption of coal mine production was slow, downstream procurement slowed, and demand from coke - steel enterprises was average [1]. - Coke: The coke market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The 2601 contract closed at 1707 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 1.73%. The sixth round of price increases was fully implemented, coke enterprises' production was normal, and steel mills' demand for replenishment was relatively active [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon market may experience a slight correction. The main contract price was 6050 yuan/ton, down 1.08%. Supply was increasing, and demand was waiting for the main steel mill's tender price. The fundamental driving force was limited [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon market may experience a correction. The 09 contract price was 5744 yuan/ton, down 2.15%. Supply was increasing, and demand was affected by downstream production control. The fundamental driving force was limited [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: Yesterday, the rebar futures price continued to fall. The 2510 contract closed at 3189 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton or 1.02%, with a decrease of 16,000 lots in positions. Spot prices dropped, and trading volume declined. National rebar production decreased by 0.73 tons week - on - week to 220.45 million tons, social inventory increased by 26.45 million tons to 414.93 million tons, and factory inventory increased by 4.06 million tons to 172.26 million tons. Apparent demand decreased by 20.85 million tons to 189.94 million tons. In July, RMB loans were weak, affecting market sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2601 price fell to 775 yuan/ton, down 2.94%. Port spot prices also dropped. Australian shipments decreased, Brazilian shipments increased, and global shipments decreased. Iron - making production decreased by 0.34 million tons to 240.66 million tons, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16%. Port and steel mill inventories increased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2601 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton or 2.49%, with a decrease of 24,908 lots in positions. The price of some coking coal in the spot market was adjusted. Coal mine resumption was slow, downstream procurement slowed, and demand from coke - steel enterprises was average [1]. - **Coke**: The 2601 contract closed at 1707 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 1.73%, with a decrease of 1034 lots in positions. The sixth round of price increases was fully implemented. Coke enterprises' production was normal, and steel mills' demand for replenishment was relatively active [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract price was 6050 yuan/ton, down 1.08%, with a decrease of 21,026 lots in positions. The market price in each region was 5800 - 6050 yuan/ton. Supply was increasing, and demand was waiting for the main steel mill's tender price. The fundamental driving force was limited [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The 09 contract price was 5744 yuan/ton, down 2.15%, with a decrease of 16,432 lots in positions. The market price in each region was about 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton. Supply was increasing, and demand was affected by downstream production control. The fundamental driving force was limited [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes. For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 78.0, down 4.0; the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore was 22.0, up 1.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For example, the 09 - contract basis of iron ore was 27.1, up 0.2; the 01 - contract basis of coke was - 85.0, up 8.3 [4]. - **Spot Price**: Spot prices of different varieties decreased. For example, the Shanghai rebar price was 3320.0, down 40.0; the PB powder price was 771.0, down 13.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profit and spread of different varieties showed different trends. For example, the rebar futures profit was 13.8, up 15.0; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 243.0, up 14.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts showed the closing prices of main contracts of various varieties from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [5][7][9]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts showed the basis of main contracts of various varieties over different time periods, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [18][19][20]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts showed the spreads of inter - period contracts of various varieties over different time periods, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [26][28][30]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts showed the spreads of inter - variety contracts of various varieties from 2020 to 2025, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc [41][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts showed the profit of rebar main contracts from 2020 to 2025, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [45][47][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry. He has multiple honors and relevant qualification numbers [53]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with multiple honors and relevant qualification numbers [53]. - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data, with relevant qualification numbers [53]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and trade, and passed the CFA Level 2 exam, with relevant qualification numbers [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Neutral [1] - Soybean Meal: Bullish [1] - Oils: Bullish [1] - Eggs: Neutral [1] - Pigs: Neutral [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The corn futures market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, with the 9 - month contract approaching the delivery month. The spot market has different price performances in various regions, and the futures price is affected by policies and fundamentals. Short - term attention should be paid to the possible resistance and decline of the 9 - month contract price [1]. - The CBOT soybean closed lower due to export demand concerns. The domestic soybean meal mainly fluctuates, and the strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and hold the 1 - 5 positive spread [1]. - The BMD palm oil closed lower due to profit - taking, and the ICE rapeseed futures also declined. The domestic vegetable oils followed the external market down. The oils market is in a bullish trend, and the strategy is to hold long positions and sell put options [1]. - The egg futures have completed the position transfer. The spot price is mostly stable with individual declines. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but there is a possibility of seasonal price rebound in the future, with the high point likely to be lower than last year [1][2]. - The pig futures main contract fluctuated weakly. The spot price showed a mixed pattern of rise, stability, and decline. The short - term spot price is supported by the strong price - holding intention of breeders, and there is a possibility of a low - level rebound in the future [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: The 9 - month contract of corn futures has reduced positions and risen this week, with the main funds shifting to forward contracts. The spot price in the Northeast is slightly weak, in the North China it is stable with limited adjustments, and in the sales area it is generally stable with individual port rebounds. Technically, the futures price is in a stalemate after a short - term decline and then stabilizes and rises. There is a need to pay attention to the game between policies and fundamentals [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean closed lower. The new US soybean net sales were higher than expected, while the old - crop net sales were negative due to contract cancellations. The Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase. Domestically, the soybean meal fluctuates, and the strategy is short - term long participation and holding the 1 - 5 positive spread [1]. - **Oils**: The BMD palm oil closed lower due to profit - taking, and an Indonesian organization is lobbying to postpone the B50 biodiesel policy. The ICE rapeseed futures declined. The US soybean oil followed the US soybean down. The domestic vegetable oils followed the external market. The oils market is in a bullish trend with rich market themes and high uncertainty [1]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures have completed position transfer. The 2509 contract declined, and the 2510 contract rose slightly. The spot price is mostly stable with individual declines. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but there is a possibility of seasonal price rebound in the future [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The pig futures main contract 2511 declined. The spot price showed a mixed pattern. The short - term spot price is supported by breeders' price - holding intention, and there is a possibility of a low - level rebound in the future [2]. Market Information - India's palm oil and sunflower oil imports in July decreased compared to June, while the total vegetable oil imports increased [3]. - The US 2024/2025 annual soybean and corn export sales as of August 7 were far lower than market expectations [3]. - Brazil's 2024/25 annual soybean production is expected to reach 1.69657 billion tons, and the corn production is expected to be 13.7005 million tons [3]. - The corn planting area in the central crop area of Argentina in the 2025/26 year is expected to increase by 15% - 20% [3]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts [5][7][8][11]. - **Contract Basis**: The report presents the basis of corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts [13][17][23][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On August 14, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,675 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.14%. The open interest decreased by 5,465 lots to 279,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,540 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rebounded to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 315 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 50,430 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 3.08%. The open interest decreased by 4,706 lots to 128,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 47,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 5,270 yuan/ton [2]. - The north and south of China's industrial silicon production areas continued to resume production, and the downstream crystalline silicon production increased significantly. The supply and demand showed a pattern of double - growth, and in the short term, it continued to fluctuate following the sentiment of coal and coke [2]. - Recently, industrial silicon industry associations in multiple provinces put forward a joint initiative against "involution." In the short term, relevant news may become an important driver for the industrial silicon futures market [2]. - After the polysilicon futures market showed a premium again, it attracted an increase in warehouse receipts. The market was trading on a series of news such as capacity storage. In the short term, the range pattern of polysilicon with a clear upper and lower limit was relatively obvious [2]. - Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of industrial silicon production, the impact of the association's initiative, and the policy promotion of polysilicon [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement price: The main contract decreased from 8,775 yuan/ton on August 13 to 8,695 yuan/ton on August 14, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton. The near - month contract increased from 8,575 yuan/ton to 8,635 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices of various grades remained stable, with no change in the prices of non - oxygenated 553 silicon, oxygenated 553 silicon, and 421 silicon in different regions [4]. - The current lowest deliverable price remained at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 375 yuan/ton to 315 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement price: The main contract decreased from 51,290 yuan/ton on August 13 to 50,430 yuan/ton on August 14, a decrease of 860 yuan/ton. The near - month contract decreased from 51,290 yuan/ton to 49,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,520 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The price of N - type polysilicon dense material increased from 44,000 yuan/ton to 46,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. The price of N - type recycled polysilicon material increased from 45,500 yuan/ton to 47,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton. The price of N - type granular silicon material increased from 34,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. The prices of P - type polysilicon dense material and P - type recycled polysilicon material remained unchanged [4]. - The current lowest deliverable price remained at 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed from 6,790 yuan/ton to 5,270 yuan/ton [4]. Organic Silicon - Spot prices: The DMC price in the East China market decreased from 12,000 yuan/ton to 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber, 107 glue decreased by 500 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,800 yuan/ton [4]. Inventory - Industrial silicon: The daily industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained at 50,701. The weekly inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 880 tons to 251,700 tons. The weekly inventory at Huangpu Port remained at 55,000 tons, and the weekly inventory at Tianjin Port and Kunming Port remained unchanged. The industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 4,100 tons to 272,500 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 4,100 tons to 444,000 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The daily polysilicon warehouse receipts remained at 5,150. The weekly inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 13,000 tons to 108,600 tons. The weekly polysilicon factory inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,400 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,000 tons [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices Charts show prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. Downstream Product Prices Charts present prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and solar modules [13][14][16]. Inventory Charts display industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][20][22]. Cost - profit Charts show average cost levels, average profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]. 3.3 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a medium - level investment analyst in gold, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won awards such as the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Awards of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [34]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [34]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [35].

Research Views - Yesterday, the A-share market showed a volatile correction with increased trading volume. The Wind All A index dropped 0.86% with a trading volume of 2.3 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index fell 1.24%, the CSI 500 index declined 1.2%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.59%, and the SSE 300 index decreased 0.08%. The personal consumer loan discount policy has been implemented, and policies are further tilted towards promoting household consumption. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to directly increase the income level of residents. It is predicted that the central bank will purchase national debt to raise funds for the central government, and more inclusive fiscal support programs will be launched to stabilize and boost China's inflation environment [1]. - The recent rise in the stock market is mainly driven by three logics: long - term, the market anticipates more fiscal policies to promote consumption and an increase in domestic inflation after the easing of Sino - US relations, with foreign capital flowing in and usually buying large - cap growth stocks; medium - term, the anti - involution trend and infrastructure investment on the demand side benefit upstream cyclical sectors, and new funds have a long - lasting impact but may have limited influence on the upper limit of stock prices; short - term, the capital market has relatively abundant liquidity due to the appreciation of the RMB under the weak US dollar and the improvement of corporate deposit and loan data, which makes entity liquidity more likely to flow into the stock market. In terms of operation, the market is gradually tilting towards the long side, and a strategy of selling put options can be considered [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.36%, 0.12%, 0.08%, and 0.02% respectively. The central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. There were 160.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the open market, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3.2 billion yuan. The bond market showed a flat reaction after the release of weak July financial data as the market had already anticipated it. This week, the capital market is loose, but the strong stock market suppresses the bond market, which is running bearishly. In the short term, the bond market is under pressure due to the rise in risk appetite, but there are no significant changes in the capital and fundamental aspects, so it will mainly show a volatile trend [2]. Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures, IH rose 0.38%, IF fell 0.17%, IC dropped 1.11%, and IM declined 1.04%. For stock indices, the SSE 50 rose 0.59%, the SSE 300 fell 0.08%, the CSI 500 decreased 1.20%, and the CSI 1000 dropped 1.24%. For treasury bond futures, TS fell 0.02%, TF declined 0.08%, T dropped 0.10%, and TL decreased 0.33%. For treasury bond yields, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased [3]. Market News - After the release of stronger - than - expected US PPI data, traders lowered their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut. The probability of a Fed rate cut at the September meeting is 90%, while the market fully anticipated this scenario a day ago [4]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The section includes charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the current - month basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][7][9][10]. Treasury Bond Futures - The section contains charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, the inter - period spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][17][18]. Exchange Rates - The section presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward US dollar to RMB (1M and 3M), forward euro to RMB (1M and 3M), the US dollar index, euro to US dollar, pound to US dollar, and US dollar to Japanese yen [21][22][23][25][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the "Trump - Putin Summit", and the market is in a state of waiting for further guidance with an increase in risk - aversion sentiment. The oil price has rebounded from a low level, but the final outcome of the talks needs to be monitored [1]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient supply and falling spot premiums. The high - sulfur fuel oil's summer power - generation demand is waning, and the upward space for both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is not optimistic [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand in August. In the short term, the price will likely fluctuate within a range due to the lack of a clear one - sided driver [2][4]. - The polyester market is affected by the decline in crude oil prices. With the recovery of supply and demand, the polyester chain follows the decline in the cost - end crude oil price [4]. - The methanol market has a situation where the Iranian device load has recovered to a high point, the port inventory has increased rapidly, suppressing the near - month price. However, the main contract will switch to January, and the subsequent winter port destocking will limit the downward space, maintaining a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range price fluctuations [5]. - The polyolefin market is approaching the peak demand season of "Golden September and Silver October". The supply will remain at a high level after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is expected to increase. The overall upward space is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - The PVC market has high - level supply fluctuations and gradually recovering demand. The supply - demand gap is narrowing, and the inventory is expected to decline slowly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rose. The WTI September contract closed up $1.31 to $63.96 per barrel, a 2.09% increase; the Brent October contract closed up $1.21 to $66.84 per barrel, a 1.84% increase; SC2509 closed at 488.2 yuan per barrel, up 4.6 yuan per barrel, a 0.95% increase. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations may boost market demand. The "Trump - Putin Summit" is about to take place, and the market is waiting for the outcome. The oil price has rebounded from a low level, and the overall view is "volatile" [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed down 1.03% at 2700 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 closed down 0.23% at 3449 yuan per ton. Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased, and the spot premium of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore fell to a four - month low. The overall view is "volatile" [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.4% at 3510 yuan per ton. This week, the sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 sample modified asphalt enterprises increased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to recover, with the price expected to fluctuate within a range. The view is "volatile" [2][4]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.55% at 4666 yuan per ton; EG2509 closed down 0.89% at 4367 yuan per ton. Some MEG devices are shut down, and some polyester devices are restarted. The overall view is "volatile" [4]. - **Methanol**: The Iranian device load has recovered to a high point, the port inventory has increased rapidly, suppressing the near - month price. The main contract will switch to January, and the price is expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range fluctuations. The view is "volatile" [5]. - **Polyolefin**: The maintenance season is coming to an end, and the supply will remain high. With the approaching of the peak demand season, the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The view is "volatile" [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The supply remains at a high - level fluctuation, the demand is gradually recovering, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The view is "volatile" [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the base - price data of multiple energy - chemical varieties on August 15, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [7]. 3.3 Market News - The Russian government is considering extending the full ban on gasoline exports until September [9]. - South Korea did not import Iranian crude oil in July this year and last year, and its crude oil imports in July this year were 11.3 million tons, slightly higher than the same period last year [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing - price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [11][13][15][17][19][21][24] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. from 2021 to 2025 [25][27][31][32][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [39][41][44][47][50][51][54] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts of different varieties such as crude oil's internal - external market, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, etc. [56][60][58] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production - profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [64][66] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with their own professional fields and rich experience and honors [69][70][71][72] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton: The 01 contract of cotton may face the pressure of expected high - yield new cotton and low opening price, but the domestic cotton supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 season has no major contradictions. With the current cotton price at a relatively low level and limited downward drivers, in the medium - to - long - term, after the market digests the pressure of new cotton listing and along with the macro - economic improvement, the price will oscillate upwards [1]. - Sugar: The short - term sugar futures price may be boosted by the strengthening of raw sugar, but the fundamental driving force is not strong, and the sustainability of the price rebound depends on the external market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Cotton: On Tuesday, ICE US cotton rose 2.52% to 68.44 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.79% to 13,980 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 31,124 lots to 413,000 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,052 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan per ton from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,177 yuan per ton, up 16 yuan per ton. In the international market, the US CPI annual rate was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the main contract switched to the 01 contract, and the position gradually increased. Besides the macro - factors, weather and demand should also be focused on [1]. - Sugar: In August 2024, Brazil's sugar export volume was 3.9208 million tons, with a daily average export volume of 178,200 tons. In the first week of August 2025, Brazil exported 1.094 million tons of sugar and molasses, with a daily average export volume of 182,300 tons. The spot price of sugar in different regions had some adjustments. Raw sugar rebounded for three consecutive days, boosting the market sentiment [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 contract spread was - 245 yuan, down 45 yuan; the main contract basis was 1,197 yuan, down 84 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 15,052 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan, and the national spot price was 15,177 yuan per ton, up 16 yuan [2]. - Sugar: The 9 - 1 contract spread was 101 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis was 362 yuan, down 35 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 5,960 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 5,970 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. Market Information - Cotton: On August 12, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,087, down 85 from the previous day, with 282 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions were reported. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.3, unchanged; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.5, down 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.3, up 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.4, down 0.3 [3]. - Sugar: On August 12, the spot price of sugar in Nanning and Liuzhou remained unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 17,853, down 387 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts were presented, including those related to cotton (such as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China Cotton Price Index) and sugar (such as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts) [6][9][11][14][17]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry and has won many awards [19]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass and has also won many honors [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton and has won relevant titles [21].

黑色商品日报 | | 于去年同期水平。库存端，样本钢厂锰硅需求量当周值持续下降，位于近年来同期中位水平。综合来看， | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 当前基本面上行驱动有限，关注市场情绪变化，预计短期维持震荡略偏强走势。 | | | | 硅铁：周二，硅铁期价震荡走强，主力合约报收 5820 元/吨，环比上涨 0.21%，主力合约持仓环比下降 10459 | | | | 手至 10.76 万手。各地区硅铁汇总价格约 5400-5500 元/吨，较前一日基本持平。昨日黑色板块整体走势 | | | | 偏强，焦煤领涨，合金涨幅靠后，硅铁期价重心小幅上移。近期硅铁基本面无较大变化，钢招持续进行中， | | | | 近期定价多在 6020-6070 元/吨，关注主流钢招定价情况。供应端，内蒙、宁夏具有一定生产利润情况下， | | | 硅铁 | 硅铁月产量及周产量均环比增加，短期难有减量。库存端，硅铁样本企业库存连续两周环比增加，处于近 | 震荡偏强 | | | 年来同期高位水平。成本端，依据铁合金在线，截止上周末，宁夏地区硅铁生产成本约 5326 元/吨，周环 | | | | 比增加 1623 元 ...