农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，玉米减仓下行，玉米近月 2601 合约减仓调整，资金向 3 月和 5 月合约转 | 震荡下行 | | | 移。周一，在玉米 1 月合约下跌拖累下，远期合约跟随下跌，期价呈现高位调整 | | | | 表现。现货市场方面，周末华北地区深加工企业门前到货量一般，玉米价格稳中 | | | | 偏强运行。东北地区玉米价格持续上涨，市场短期看涨情绪较高，但华北地区整 | | | | 体有其固有的节奏，目前农户售粮节奏依然保持相对缓慢，市场供应变现为阶段 | | | 玉米 | 性的宽松和收紧，深加工企业玉米价格维持窄幅调整，变动幅度有限。周末销区 | | | | 市场玉米价格基本维持稳定。上周经过连续涨价后，销区下游企业采购力继续减 | | | | 弱，高价玉米成交一般，市场多维持观望心态。周末整体市场无较大波动，上涨 | | | | 情绪减弱。技术上，玉米 3、5 月合约处于 5 月中旬形成价格压力带，期价上行 | | | | 遇阻，动力不足。短期来看，玉米呈现技术调整要求， ...

农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，玉米减仓下行，玉米近月 2601 合约减仓调整，资金向 3 月和 5 月合约转 | 震荡下行 | | | 移。周一，在玉米 1 月合约下跌拖累下，远期合约跟随下跌，期价呈现高位调整 | | | | 表现。现货市场方面，周末华北地区深加工企业门前到货量一般，玉米价格稳中 | | | | 偏强运行。东北地区玉米价格持续上涨，市场短期看涨情绪较高，但华北地区整 | | | | 体有其固有的节奏，目前农户售粮节奏依然保持相对缓慢，市场供应变现为阶段 | | | 玉米 | 性的宽松和收紧，深加工企业玉米价格维持窄幅调整，变动幅度有限。周末销区 | | | | 市场玉米价格基本维持稳定。上周经过连续涨价后，销区下游企业采购力继续减 | | | | 弱，高价玉米成交一般，市场多维持观望心态。周末整体市场无较大波动，上涨 | | | | 情绪减弱。技术上，玉米 3、5 月合约处于 5 月中旬形成价格压力带，期价上行 | | | | 遇阻，动力不足。短期来看，玉米呈现技术调整要求， ...

工业硅日报 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 点评 8 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 8675 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.98%，持仓 减仓 9856 手至 18.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9648 元/吨，较上一交易 日下调 35 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8900 元/吨，现货升水扩至 225 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 54545 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.65%，持仓减仓 18624 手至 7.94 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水收 至 2245 元/吨。工业硅厂进一步减产但不及下游采购跌量，当前成交集中 在套保单或未交付前期订单，工业硅短期难见趋势。光伏产业链自下而上 延续高库存、降排产逻辑，降价情绪未向上蔓延。随着交易所提保限仓且 针对交割品进行扩容，市场多头资金部分撤离，晶硅跳空回调。由于近月 仓单增长较慢，盘面虚实偏高给予当前近月支撑，不建议投资者过度追 空。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUT ...

软商品日报 一、研究观点 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） | 品种 | 点评 周一，ICE 美棉下跌 0.3%，报收 63.74 美分/磅，CF601 环比持平，报收 13750 元/ | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 8727 手至 48.91 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14580 元/吨，较前一日持平。国内市场方面，目前美联储 12 月降息 25BP 概率几成定局， 市场关注官员讲话对后续降息路径的指引。昨夜美元指数走势偏强，美棉期价重 心下移。基本面来看，2025/26 年度美棉整体供需格局相对宽松，美棉出口数据偏 | | | | 弱，拖累美棉上行空间，关注即将公布 USDA12 月报。国内市场方面，近期郑棉 | | | 棉花 | 期价维持震荡走势。消息面，中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 | 震荡 | | | 年经济工作，市场情绪提振，股指上行。基本面来看，近期多空因素均有。供应 | | | | 端的总量是压力之一；当前是传统淡季周期，需求能否持续存疑是压力之二；服 | | | | 装出 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 2 月 9 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 760.5 | 769.0 | -8.5 | I05-I09 | 23.5 | 25.0 | -1.5 | | I09 | 737.0 | 744.0 | -7.0 | I09-I01 | -41.5 | -41.5 | 0.0 | | I01 | 778.5 | 785.5 | -7.0 | I01-I05 | 18.0 | 16.5 | 1.5 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 图表3：基差标的：巴西粉矿（单位：元/吨） 图表4：基差标的：澳洲中品粉矿（单位：元/吨） 0 20 40 60 80 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated weakly. Before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the market remained cautious. Although a December rate cut has reached a consensus, the future rate - cut path and how the Fed replenishes market liquidity are the focus. With the LME inventory problem hard to solve, the market sentiment may keep copper prices high and even make them continue to strengthen, so a prudent and optimistic outlook is held [1]. - Overnight, alumina and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly, while aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. After the end of environmental inspections in the north, domestic mines resumed production, and ore supply increased. Alumina supply remained high, and inventory pressure continued to build. Affected by macro - sentiment and copper prices, aluminum followed the upward trend and hit a new high. The end - of - year demand did not decline significantly, and the seasonal pressure on aluminum ingot shipments in Xinjiang helped extend the destocking cycle. Currently, the upward strength of aluminum prices is weakening, and attention should be paid to downstream high - price stocking sentiment [1][2]. - Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.57% to $14,885 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.19% to 117,800 yuan per ton. The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The nickel - iron price center moved up, and the raw - material support strengthened marginally, but the price upside was limited. In the new - energy industry chain, the raw - material supply was tight, but the output of ternary precursors decreased in December, and the finished - product side was under pressure. In the short term, nickel may still fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro and overseas industrial - policy changes [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Macro factors include the Fed's rate - policy stance and China's economic - policy orientation. LME copper inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 164,550 tons, COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 2,410 tons to 398,720 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 980 tons to 29,956 tons. The market is cautious before the Fed's meeting, but LME inventory issues may support high copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, AO2601 closed at 2,574 yuan per ton, down 0.27%, and AL2601 closed at 22,120 yuan per ton, down 0.11%. AD2601 closed at 21,060 yuan per ton, up 0.07%. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,809 yuan per ton, and the aluminum - ingot spot discount widened. After the end of environmental inspections, ore supply increased, and alumina supply remained high. Aluminum prices followed the upward trend but may face downward pressure [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.57% to $14,885 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.19% to 117,800 yuan per ton. The LME nickel inventory increased by 228 tons to 253,344 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 264 tons to 34,500 tons. The nickel - iron price center moved up, and the new - energy industry chain faced some pressure. In the short term, nickel may fluctuate [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 710 yuan per ton, and the flat - water copper premium decreased by 45 yuan per ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 1,500 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2,000 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 980 tons, and the total domestic + bonded - area social inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged at 17,310 yuan per ton, and the 1 lead - ingot premium in East China increased by 5 yuan per ton. The price of lead concentrates at some locations increased by 100 yuan per ton. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 547 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference decreased by 10 yuan per ton. The aluminum - alloy ADC12 price in South China increased by 200 yuan per ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,500 tons, and the total SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 8,439 tons. The alumina social inventory increased by 1 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate increased by 425 yuan per ton. The LME nickel inventory increased by 126 tons, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 2,501 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the nickel social inventory increased by 3,090 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.4% to 22,840 yuan per ton. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, and the social inventory decreased by 0.36 million tons. The active - contract import loss decreased [7]. - **Tin**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 2.9% to 318,380 yuan per ton. The LME tin price decreased by 2.1% to $27,540 per ton. The SHFE tin inventory increased by 130 tons, and the active - contract import loss decreased [7]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][12] - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][17][18] - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24] - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30] - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36] - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts present the copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43] 4. Non - Ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, and has multiple professional titles. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published many professional articles. His team has won multiple awards [46]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [46]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [47].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面震荡下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3123 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 下跌 34 元/吨，跌幅为 1.08%，持仓增加 0.3 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普 | | | | 方坯价格下跌 20 元/吨至 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 20 元/吨至 3210 元/吨，全国建材成交 | | | | 量 9.39 万吨。据海关统计，2025 年 11 月中国出口钢材 998.0 万吨，较上月增加 19.8 万吨，环比增长 2.0%； | | | | 1-11 月累计出口钢材 10771.7 万吨，同比增长 6.7%。钢材出口维持在较高水平，在一定程度上缓解了市 | | | | 场供应压力。中央政治局会议指出明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政 | | | | 策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和 ...

Group 1: Index Trends - On December 8th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.54% to close at 3924.08 points with a trading volume of 839.439 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.39% to close at 13329.99 points with a trading volume of 1197.207 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 1.1% with a trading volume of 418.475 billion yuan, opening at 7359.49, closing at 7423.05, with a daily high of 7446.19 and a low of 7359.49 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose by 1.05% with a trading volume of 347.245 billion yuan, opening at 7119.05, closing at 7172.37, with a daily high of 7193.72 and a low of 7114.32 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.58% with a trading volume of 125.239 billion yuan, opening at 3006.63, closing at 3019.36, with a daily high of 3030.57 and a low of 3005.38 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose by 0.81% with a trading volume of 496.716 billion yuan, opening at 4593.14, closing at 4621.75, with a daily high of 4640.63 and a low of 4592.74 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 80.56 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, communication, and computer significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 74.53 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and machinery significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 37.21 points from the previous close, with sectors such as communication, electronics, and non - bank finance significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 17.35 points from the previous close, with non - bank finance, electronics, and pharmaceutical biology pulling the index up, while food and beverage pulled it down [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 32.04, IM01 of - 107.61, IM02 of - 265.18, and IM03 of - 506.23 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 19.05, IC01 of - 74.87, IC02 of - 192.01, and IC03 of - 401.1 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 4.8, IF01 of - 20.14, IF02 of - 42.8, and IF03 of - 90.5 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 1.21, IH01 of - 8.49, IH02 of - 11.56, and IH03 of - 26.2 [13]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on IM roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, showing the changes in point differences and costs over time [28]. - Similar data for IC, IF, and IH contracts are also presented, including point differences and their annualized costs at various time intervals [23][26][29].

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 合约涨 1.76%至 94840 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价跌 500 元/ 吨至 92750 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价跌 450 元/吨至 90350 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）跌 200 元/吨至 81930 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 2198 吨至 13120 吨。 2. 消息面，据尼日利亚媒体 punchng 报道，尼日利亚北部各州州长与传统领袖 12 月 1 日召开联席会 议，决定推动在该地区全面暂停采矿活动六个月。 3. 供应端，周度产量环比增加 74 吨至 21939 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 120 吨至 13484 吨，锂云母 产量环比增加 55 吨至 3076 吨，盐湖提锂环比减少 145 吨至 3090 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 44 吨至 2289 吨；12 月碳酸锂产量预计环比增加 3%至 98210 吨，其中锂云母提锂、锂辉石提锂环比增加， 盐湖提锂、回收提锂环比下滑。需求端，周度三元材料产量环比减少 564 吨至 18697 吨，库存环比 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心回落，其中 WTI 1 月合约收盘下跌 1.20 美元至 58.88 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 2.00%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘下跌 1.26 美元至 62.49 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.98%。SC2601 以 448.0 元/桶收盘，下跌 8.4 元/ | | | | 桶，跌幅为1.84%。伊拉克恢复了在卢克石油Lukoil的West Qurna 2 | | | | 油田生产，这是全球最大的油田之一，此前一出口管道泄漏导致 | | | | 其产量大幅下降。上个月，卢克石油公司宣布在 West Qurna 2 油 | | | | 田发生不可抗力，因该公司与俄罗斯石油公司 Rosneft 一起受到 | | | 原油 | 美国制裁。该油田的产量约为每日 46 万桶，占到全球石油供应的 | 震荡 | | | 0.5%左右，并且占到伊拉克总产量的 9%。随着油井重新上线，该 | | | | 油田预计将在未来几小时 ...