光大期货金融期货日报 | | 国债期货收盘，30 年期主力合约跌 0.21%，10 年期主力合约跌 0.11%，5 年 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 期主力合约跌 0.09%，2 年期主力合约跌 0.03%。中国央行开展 2148 亿元 7 | | | | 天期逆回购操作，利率持稳于 1.4%。公开市场有 3425 亿元逆回购到期，净 | | | 国债 | 回笼 1277 亿元。银行间市场方面，DR001 加权利率上行 bp 至 1.37%，DR007 | 震荡 | | | 加权利率上行 1 bp 至 1.48%。6 月出口增速超预期，金融数据总量超预期同 | | | | 时结构持续改善，二季度 GDP 增速 5.2%，6 月经济数据保持韧性。经济保 | | | | 持韧性短期内降息预期较低，当前股债跷跷板效应明显，短期国债偏空运行。 | | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 07 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心继续下移，其中 WTI 新换 9 月合约收盘下跌 0.06 美 | | | | 元至 65.25 美元/桶，跌幅 0.09%。布伦特 9 月合约收盘下跌 0.08 | | | | 美元至 68.51 美元/桶，跌幅 0.12%。SC2509 以 506 元/桶收盘，上 | | | | 涨 2.1 元/桶，涨幅为 0.42%。美国能源部长表示将考虑制裁俄罗 | | | | 斯石油以结束俄乌冲突。美国总统特朗普在早些时候表示，如果 | | | | 莫斯科不同意与乌克兰达成一项重要的和平协议，华盛顿可能会 | | | | 对俄罗斯石油的买家征收 100%的关税，并实施其他制裁措施。这 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 对俄罗斯无疑是巨大的压力，但目前特朗普政府尚未对俄罗斯实 | | | | 施重大石油制裁。关税方面，最新美国总统特朗普表示，将对世 | 偏弱 | | | 界其他大部分国家征收 15%至 50%的简单关税。EIA 报告，截至 ...

2025 年 7 月 2 3 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 770.5 | 755.0 | 15.5 | I05-I09 | -52.5 | -54.0 | 1.5 | | I09 | 823.0 | 809.0 | 14.0 | I09-I01 | 29.5 | 32.5 | -3.0 | | I01 | 793.5 | 776.5 | 17.0 | I01-I05 | 23.0 | 21.5 | 1.5 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） 光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 0 ...

Research Views Corn - Tuesday saw the corn weighted contract increase in price with reduced positions, and the September contract has reduced positions for two consecutive days with a rebound in futures prices. In the spot market, the impact of imported corn auctions on the market has weakened due to the decline in the auction成交率. The overall atmosphere in the Northeast production area has recovered, and corn prices have rebounded. Corn prices in North China are generally stable, with individual enterprises slightly increasing prices. The arrival volume of corn at Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased, but the prices remain stable. In Henan and Hebei, a few enterprises have slightly increased prices. Corn prices in the sales area have slightly rebounded. Over the weekend, corn prices in the production area rebounded by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The futures have been rising, and traders at ports in the sales area have slightly increased their quotes, but downstream acceptance is average, and trading is dull. Technically, the September contract has rebounded to the previous intensive trading range of 2320 - 2330, and the short - term rebound is restricted by technical resistance, showing a short - term weakening and oscillating trend [1]. Soybean Meal - On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans closed lower with high volatility, rising at one point due to the decline in US crop ratings and trade negotiation news. US soybean meal rose, and US soybean oil fell. Traders were originally worried about the high temperature in the US Midwest damaging yields, but after a brief heatwave in the middle of this week, rainfall is expected to limit crop stress. In the domestic market, the spot prices of domestic rapeseed meal and soybean meal have all increased, and futures prices have also risen. The general rise of commodities has created a mostly bullish atmosphere for the protein meal market. The firm Brazilian premium and the increase in soybean import costs support the price of soybean meal. The oil mill operating rate remains high, but terminal inquiry willingness is low, and it is mainly for short - term rigid demand. The inventory of soybean meal is accumulating rapidly. Oil mills have limited contracts for sale, and some factories have suspended spot quotes or adopted a price - holding strategy. The market is closely watching the progress of Sino - US relations and the fourth - quarter oilseed procurement. The trading strategy is to hold a bullish view on the market, and hold long positions in the 91 and 15 spreads of soybean meal [1]. Fats and Oils - On Tuesday, BMD palm oil slightly increased, following the trend of the surrounding market. However, market volatility has intensified due to the unclear prospects of trade negotiations between major economies. Canadian rapeseed prices fell because of the beneficial rainfall and mild temperatures in the Canadian prairie this week, which support crop yield prospects, but commercial buying limited the decline. In the domestic market, the spot prices of palm oil have all increased, while the spot prices of domestic soybean oil and imported rapeseed oil have all decreased. Recently, oil mills have urged downstream customers to pick up goods, but the fundamentals of soybean oil remain loose, and the inventory has continued to rise, reaching an eight - month high. Commodities have generally risen, led by industrial products, and the fats and oils market lacks hot spots, with capital flowing out. The fats and oils market is mainly oscillating. The trading strategy is to conduct intraday trading on single - side positions and hold long positions in the 91 spreads [1]. Eggs - On Tuesday, the main egg contract 2509 oscillated and adjusted, closing down 0.41% at 3621 yuan/500 kilograms. According to Zhuochuang data, the national egg price yesterday was 3.2 yuan/jin, a 0.03 - yuan/jin increase from the previous day. In the production area, the price of Ningjin pink - shell eggs was 3.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of Heishan brown - shell eggs was 2.9 yuan/jin, a 0.2 - yuan/jin increase. In the sales area, the price of Putuo brown - shell eggs was 3.24 yuan/jin, and the price of Guangzhou brown - shell eggs was 3.63 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. Terminal consumption is stable, and most traders purchase and sell in line with the market. Egg prices in most sales areas are stable, with a few showing slight increases or decreases. Currently, the supply is still relatively abundant. After the previous low - price rebound, egg prices have stabilized. Fundamentally, egg prices are expected to enter a peak season, which is bullish for prices. However, considering the current high inventory and cold - storage eggs, the peak egg price is likely to be lower than last year [1]. Live Pigs - On Tuesday, the main live pig contract 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.1% at 14380 yuan/ton. According to Zhuochuang data, the daily average price of live pigs in China yesterday was 14.34 yuan/kg, a 0.06 - yuan/kg decrease from the previous day. The average price of live pigs in the benchmark delivery area of Henan was 14.46 yuan/kg, a 0.02 - yuan/kg decrease. Prices in Guangdong and Sichuan were flat, while those in Shandong and Liaoning decreased. After the previous rebound in pig prices, farmers have been actively selling, and the supply is sufficient, but downstream demand support is weak. Pig prices are stable in some regions and decreasing in others. Fundamentally, there is no significant change. Considering the supply pressure and policy support, the view on pig prices is that they will oscillate. On the futures chart, the previous high forms obvious resistance. Attention should be paid to changes in spot prices and market sentiment [2]. Market Information - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 are estimated to be 486,404 tons, a 35.99% decrease compared to the same period last month [2]. - Russia's Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said that Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, has cut its 2025 wheat production and 2025/26 market - year wheat export volume forecasts. The current forecast for wheat production is 88 - 90 million tons, down from the previous 90 million tons. The expected export volume for this year is 43 - 44 million tons, lower than the previous forecast of 45 million tons [3]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports in June 2025 remained high at 1.26 million tons, exceeding the figures in June 2022 (1.19 million tons), June 2023 (1.17 million tons), and June 2024 (1.21 million tons). However, the palm oil inventory reached an 18 - month high of 2.03 million tons. In the first half of 2025, Kenya became Malaysia's second - largest palm oil buyer, surpassing the EU 27 (21,000 tons) and China (117,000 tons). Kenya accounts for 30% of Malaysia's total palm oil exports to sub - Saharan Africa, and its annual import volume from Malaysia is expected to reach 1.3 million tons [3]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the next round of Sino - US talks may discuss China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil. At the Chinese Foreign Ministry's regular press conference on July 22, spokesperson Guo Jiakun said that China's stance on tariffs is consistent and clear, hoping that the US will work with China to implement the important consensus reached in the phone calls between the two heads of state, give play to the role of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations through dialogue and communication [3]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report provides charts of the 9 - 1 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [5][7][8][11] Contract Basis - The report provides charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [13][17][23][25] Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute and the leader of the top ten research and investment teams at DCE. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times' Best Futures Analyst selection for many years. In 2019, her team won the title of the top ten research and investment teams at DCE. In 2023, her team won the special prize in the DCE "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition in cooperation with Nankai University. She is a special economic analyst for Xinhua News Agency and a financial commentator on CCTV's economic and news channels [27]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst for soybeans at Everbright Futures. She has more than ten years of futures - trading experience. Her team won the title of the most potential agricultural product futures research and development team at DCE in 2013 and the top ten research and development teams at DCE in 2019. In 2023, she participated in the DCE "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition in cooperation with Nankai University and won the special prize [27]. - Kong Hailan, a master in economics, is currently a researcher for eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She is a guest analyst on First Financial Channel. Her team won the title of the top ten research and development teams at DCE in 2019 and the special prize in the DCE "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition in 2023 [27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton has support at the bottom but is unlikely to have a continuous upward trend, presenting a volatile pattern. It's advisable to sell high - priced out - of - the - money call options and buy low - priced out - of - the - money put options [1]. - For sugar, due to the high import forecast in July and market pressure, the futures price is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: On Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.23% to 68.26 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 0.11% to 14,225 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 5,314 lots to 554,200 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,416 yuan per ton, down 64 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,549 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan. The international market has limited drivers, with more focus on the macro - level. The domestic market sentiment has warmed up, and the cotton price reversed in the afternoon. The short - term situation of low imports and low inventories remains unchanged, providing support at the bottom, but there is insufficient driving force for continuous upward movement [1]. - **Sugar**: The European crop monitoring agency MARS lowered the 2025 EU sugar beet yield forecast to 74.8 tons per hectare. The spot prices of sugar in different regions have some adjustments. The raw sugar is in a volatile trend under the pressure of increased production and is difficult to break through. With high import forecasts in July, the domestic market is under pressure [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 195 with no change, the main basis is 1324, down 80. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,416 yuan per ton, down 64, and the national spot price is 15,549 yuan per ton, down 40 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 170 with no change, the main basis is 252, up 11. The Nanning spot price is 6050 yuan per ton, down 10, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6075 yuan per ton, down 5 [2]. Market Information - **Cotton**: On July 22, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,436, down 65 from the previous trading day, with 293 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions are provided. The yarn comprehensive load decreased by 0.2 to 49.7, the yarn comprehensive inventory remained unchanged at 29.8, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load remained unchanged at 48, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory decreased by 0.1 to 33.6 [3]. - **Sugar**: On July 22, the Nanning sugar spot price was 6050 yuan per ton, down 10, and the Liuzhou price was 6075 yuan per ton, down 5. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 21,359, down 78 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including those related to cotton (such as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.) and sugar (such as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.) [6][8][9][14][15][17] Group 4: Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry [19]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton and cotton yarn [21].

Index Trends - On July 22, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.62% to close at 3581.86 points, with a trading volume of 840.573 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84% to close at 11099.83 points, with a trading volume of 1052.465 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.38%, with a trading volume of 395.915 billion yuan, opening at 6607.83, closing at 6637.1, with a daily high of 6642.24 and a low of 6597.05 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.85%, with a trading volume of 313.662 billion yuan, opening at 6166.62, closing at 6213.41, with a daily high of 6215.41 and a low of 6152.81 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.72%, with a trading volume of 129.395 billion yuan, opening at 2773.4, closing at 2792.18, with a daily high of 2795.49 and a low of 2760.31 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.82%, with a trading volume of 450.874 billion yuan, opening at 4087.34, closing at 4118.96, with a daily high of 4119.2 and a low of 4068.34 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 24.84 points from the previous close. Sectors such as basic chemicals, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals significantly pulled the index up, while sectors like electronics and computers pulled it down [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 52.1 points from the previous close. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals, coal, and power equipment significantly pulled the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 33.35 points from the previous close. Sectors such as power equipment, food and beverage, and coal significantly pulled the index up, while the banking sector pulled it down [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 19.94 points from the previous close. Sectors such as food and beverage, machinery, and coal significantly pulled the index up, while non - bank finance and banking sectors pulled it down [2]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 62.26, IM01 was - 136.19, IM02 was - 321.36, and IM03 was - 483.19 [12]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 43.55, IC01 was - 95.98, IC02 was - 223.44, and IC03 was - 341.34 [12]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 7.04, IF01 was - 17.08, IF02 was - 49.26, and IF03 was - 76.95 [12]. - IH00 average daily basis was 0.75, IH01 was 1.12, IH02 was 3.73, and IH03 was 5.42 [12]. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on roll - over point differences and annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH futures contracts at different time intervals are provided, including various combinations such as 00 - 01, 00 - 02, etc. [22][27][28]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the 22nd, both industrial silicon and polysilicon hit the daily limit. The main contract of industrial silicon 2509 closed at 9,655 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 5.98%, and the position decreased by 2,335 lots to 381,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,507 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rose to 9,150 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 275 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated upwards, with the main contract 2509 closing at 49,105 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 8.99%, and the position increased by 20,122 lots to 192,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 45,550 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 45,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount widening to 3,865 yuan/ton [2]. - The energy bureau issued a notice on coal mine production review, and the cancellation of electricity price subsidies in Xinjiang strengthened the logic of rising industrial silicon costs. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reiterated the signal of resolutely combating involution in multiple industries, giving market bulls sufficient confidence, and the double-silicon futures continued to reach new highs. Supported by macro - policies, the futures are more likely to rise than fall. Attention should be paid to the PS/SI price ratio and the potential upward pull expectation before the implementation of policies [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 9,110 yuan/ton on the 21st to 9,470 yuan/ton on the 22nd, a rise of 360 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon also generally increased, with the price increase ranging from 100 - 350 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose from 8,900 yuan/ton to 9,150 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from -185 yuan/ton to -275 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 45,660 yuan/ton on the 21st to 4,9105 yuan/ton on the 22nd, a rise of 3,445 yuan/ton. Among the spot prices, the price of N-type granular silicon increased by 9,000 yuan/ton, and the price of P-type polysilicon increased by 3,500 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose from 43,500 yuan/ton to 45,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from -2,160 yuan/ton to -3,865 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 88 lots, the industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 1,400 tons, the polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the polysilicon social inventory decreased by 0.5 tons [4]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10] 2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16] 2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, industrial silicon factory warehouses, industrial silicon weekly industry inventory, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][22] 2.4 Cost - Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 2.71% to 7,2880 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,100 yuan/ton to 6,9100 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,100 yuan/ton to 6,7450 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose by 500 yuan/ton to 5,8720 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 120 tons to 10,089 tons [3]. - In July, the output is expected to increase by 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly output increased by 302 tons to 19,115 tons. In June 2025, China's lithium carbonate import volume was 17,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. In July, the production schedule increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. The weekly inventory increased by 1,827 tons to 142,620 tons [3]. - The market sentiment continues to improve, the news is fermenting, the warehouse receipts continue to decrease, and the price of lithium ore continues to rise. In the short term, it may still stimulate price increases. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 7,2880 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 7,2800 yuan/ton, up 1,540 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 742 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,030 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,590 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,400 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 6,325 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,100 yuan/ton, the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,100 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 500 yuan/ton [5]. - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: The price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 50,750 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 1,650 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 10,380 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of various precursors and cathode materials generally increased slightly, with increases ranging from 30 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: Most cell and battery prices remained unchanged, except for the cobalt - acid lithium cell, which increased by 0.01 yuan/Ah [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts 1 - 4 show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts 5 - 10 show the price trends of metal lithium, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate lithium from 2024 to 2025 [12][14][16] - **Price Spreads**: Charts 11 - 15 show the price spreads between different lithium products and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [19][20][21] - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts 16 - 20 show the price trends of precursors and cathode materials from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][29] - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts 21 - 24 show the price trends of lithium battery cells and batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][34] - **Inventory**: Charts 25 - 27 show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from November 2024 to July 2025 [37][39] - **Production Costs**: Chart 28 shows the production cost trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [41] 3.3 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times [45]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [46]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [46]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜上涨 0.31%至 9898 美元/吨；SHFE 铜上涨 0.4%至 元/吨；国内现货 | | | 79970 | | | | | 进口仍处于小幅亏损状态。宏观方面，美国财长贝森特表示，关税收入"数额巨大"， | | | | | | | | 可能占美国 GDP 的 1%，未来十年关税收入有望达到 2.8 | | | 万亿美元，8 | 月 1 | 日是最后期 | | | 限，但不代表不可以再谈。另外，在解雇鲍威尔方面态度出现软化。美国总统特朗普表 | | | | | | | | 示，美国与日本、菲律宾、印尼等国接近达成协议。国内方面，央行表示国内房地产贷 | | | | | | | | 款增速回升，住户消费贷款保持增长。库存方面来看，LME 吨至 | | | 库存增加 | 2775 | 124850 | | 铜 | 吨；Comex 库存增加 379 吨至 221156 万吨；SHF ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most black commodities are expected to run strongly or fluctuate strongly in the short term due to positive policy news, improved market sentiment, and changes in supply - demand fundamentals [1] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price rose, with the 2510 contract closing at 3307 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan/ton or 2.57%. Spot prices also increased significantly, and the trading volume remained high. Policy news boosted market sentiment, and the coal price limit also had a positive impact. The short - term rebar futures is expected to run strongly [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2509 price rose to 823 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 1.7%. Port spot prices were strong. The global iron ore shipment increased, and the iron water output was at a relatively high level, with port inventory decreasing. The ore price is expected to continue the trend of fluctuating strongly [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 1048.5 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan/ton or 4.22%. Spot prices increased. On the supply side, over - capacity mines would be rectified. On the demand side, the steel price rebounded, and the demand for coking coal improved. The short - term coking coal futures is expected to run strongly [1] - **Coke**: The coke 2509 contract closed at 1697.5 yuan/ton, up 59.5 yuan/ton or 5.9%. Spot prices rose. The second round of price increase was implemented, and the cost of coking coal increased. The demand improved due to the rebound of steel prices. The short - term coke futures is expected to run strongly [1] - **Silicomanganese**: The silicomanganese futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 6012 yuan/ton, up 1.76%. Spot prices increased in some regions. The market sentiment was the main driving force, but the supply was increasing and the demand was decreasing. The cost support was enhanced. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5874 yuan/ton, up 3.74%. Spot prices increased in some regions. The market sentiment drove the price up, but the demand was at a low level. The cost was relatively stable. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The report shows the latest values and changes of contract spreads (such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) for various black commodities including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [4] - **Basis**: It also presents the latest values and changes of basis for different contracts of various commodities [4] - **Spot Price**: The latest spot prices and their changes in different regions for each commodity are provided [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Information on profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and cross - commodity spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc.) is given [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9][11][14] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts of various commodities over different time periods [17][18][20][22] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts present the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for different commodities [25][27][29][32][34][35][37] - **Cross - commodity Contract Spread**: Charts show cross - commodity spreads such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc. [40][42][44] - **Rebar Profit**: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [45][49] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and relevant qualifications [51][52]