Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for different black commodities: steel (narrow - range consolidation), iron ore (fluctuation), coking coal (fluctuation with a weakening trend), coke (fluctuation with a weakening trend), manganese silicon (fluctuation), and ferrosilicon (fluctuation) [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For steel, the production of rebar decreased slightly, inventory accumulated significantly, and apparent demand declined. With prices hitting the cost - line, cost support strengthened, and short - term rebar futures are expected to move in a narrow range [1] - For iron ore, supply increased while demand decreased due to more blast furnace overhauls and a decline in molten iron production. With a mixed situation of long and short factors, short - term ore prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - For coking coal, production increased as some mines resumed operations, while demand was weak as downstream buyers were cautious. Short - term coking coal futures are expected to fluctuate with a weakening trend [1] - For coke, although the coking association resisted price cuts, the weakening of coking coal prices led to a marginal increase in supply. With high steel billet inventory and weak steel prices, short - term coke futures are expected to fluctuate with a weakening trend [1] - For manganese silicon, production continued to increase, steel procurement prices decreased, and costs decreased slightly. With no strong driving force in the fundamentals, short - term manganese silicon futures are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - For ferrosilicon, production enterprises are in a loss - making state, steel procurement prices decreased, and there is no strong driving force in the short - term fundamentals. Short - term ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to steel procurement and electricity prices [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3117 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.35%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices were stable with some increases, and trading volume recovered. This week, rebar production decreased by 1.88 tons week - on - week to 218.68 tons, social inventory increased by 14.89 tons to 468.66 tons, factory inventory increased by 1.72 tons to 171.34 tons, and apparent demand decreased by 2.14 tons to 202.07 tons [1] - **Iron Ore**: The futures contract i2601 closed at 791.5 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan/ton (1.9%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in trading volume and positions. Port spot prices were strong. Global iron ore shipments increased, while molten iron production decreased by 11.29 tons to 228.84 tons. The profitability of steel mills declined, and port inventory increased while steel mill inventory decreased [1] - **Coking Coal**: The futures contract 2601 closed at 1094.5 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan/ton (1.04%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Production increased as some mines resumed operations, and downstream demand was weak [1] - **Coke**: The futures contract 2601 closed at 1581.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton (0.78%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Port spot prices decreased. Although the coking association resisted price cuts, supply increased marginally due to the weakening of coking coal prices, and demand was cautious [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: On Thursday, the futures price fluctuated weakly, closing at 5730 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. Market prices in most regions decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Production continued to increase, steel procurement prices decreased significantly, and costs decreased slightly [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: On Thursday, the futures price fluctuated weakly, closing at 5496 yuan/ton, down 0.72% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. Market prices in some regions decreased. Production enterprises are in a loss - making state, and steel procurement prices decreased [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads of different contracts for various commodities changed. For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 82.0, down 10.0; the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coil was 16.0, up 5.0 [4] - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts for various commodities also changed. For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 195.0, down 1.0; the basis of the 10 - contract of hot - rolled coil was 21.0, down 9.0 [4] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of different commodities in different regions changed. For example, the price of rebar in Shanghai was 3230.0, unchanged; the price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3350.0, up 10.0 [4] - **Profits and Spreads**: The profits and spreads of different commodities also changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was - 22.7, down 6.7; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 196.0, up 3.0 [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][10][15] - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various black commodities from 2022 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23] - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different inter - period contracts of various black commodities from 2019 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][30][32][33][34][37][38] - **3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different inter - commodity contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [43][45][47] - **3.5 Rebar Profits**: There are charts showing the profits of rebar main contracts from 2020 to 2025, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][52] Group 4: Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, with multiple industry honors [54] - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, with rich experience and many industry honors [54] - Liu Xi is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54] - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [55] Group 5: Company Information - The company is located at 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 4, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 1.05% to 73,420 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 75,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 72,700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 75,850 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 830 tons to 34,948 tons [3]. - Regarding the policy inspection of the compliance of mining rights for salt - lake lithium extraction in Qinghai, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792) stated that the company's mining business is fully compliant and its production and operation are stable [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 389 tons to 19,419 tons. In September, the lithium carbonate output is expected to increase by 1.7% to 86,730 tons, mainly from lithium - spodumene extraction and a small amount from lithium recycling. In terms of demand, the output of ternary materials in September decreased by 1.5% to 72,330 tons, while that of lithium iron phosphate increased by 6% to 335,250 tons. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline significantly, with the weekly inventory decreasing by 1,044 tons to 140,092 tons [3]. - Affected by market news, the futures price rose rapidly yesterday with an intraday amplitude of 4.57%. There is still great uncertainty in the Jiangxi mining end, and there are many market rumors. The market may still fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 73,420 yuan/ton, up 1,540 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 73,000 yuan/ton, up 920 yuan. The price of lithium - spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 874 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,157.5 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,865 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 75,000 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 72,700 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 75,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 80,820 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [5]. - Other products: The price of hexafluorophosphate lithium remained unchanged at 56,000 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,300 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium - spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and lithium salt prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [11][14]. - **Price differences**: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Precursors and cathode materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][26][28]. - **Lithium battery prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium - iron - phosphate battery cells, cobalt - acid battery cells, and square lithium - iron - phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from January 16, 2025, to September 4, 2025 [37][39]. - **Production costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper prices fluctuated weakly. The US service industry data showed mixed signals, with strong orders but a contracting employment index and high prices. Weak employment data strengthened market expectations of a Fed rate cut. LME copper inventory decreased, Comex copper inventory increased, and domestic social copper inventory rose. Despite the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the consumption peak was not well - reflected in inventory performance. Although there are expectations of fundamental improvement, the upward price movement may be limited by the US recession expectations and high copper prices [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Alumina's复产 rhythm increased, and warehouse receipts began to accumulate, intensifying the oversupply expectation. However, due to factors such as the rainy season in Guinea and China's parade period, there were strong disturbances in the ore end. Downstream sectors started stocking up quickly before the "Golden September" peak season, and electrolytic aluminum demand may exceed expectations during the peak season. Aluminum industry profits are shifting from upstream to downstream. Under the dual - drive of the Fed rate cut in September and the domestic peak season, electrolytic aluminum has strong upward momentum, and there is room for the far - month spread of aluminum alloy to continue to repair [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices fell. LME nickel inventory increased, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless steel inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, but supply increased, and cost support strengthened. In the new energy sector, ternary demand is strengthening, and the price of nickel sulfate may continue to rise. With the marginal improvement of nickel - iron and new energy, opportunities for buying at low prices can be considered [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macroeconomic data from the US influenced market expectations. Inventory changes were mixed, and the domestic consumption season may boost refined copper consumption, but there are constraints on price increases [1]. - **Aluminum**: Price trends were weak, with changes in inventory and supply - demand relationships. Ore - end disturbances and downstream stocking behavior affected the market, and there were expectations of price increases for electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Price declines and inventory changes were observed. Different sectors related to nickel, such as stainless steel and new energy, showed different trends, and there were potential investment opportunities [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Prices of various copper products decreased, and inventory changes were diverse. For example, LME copper inventory decreased by 200 tons, while COMEX copper inventory increased by 3016 tons [3]. - **Lead**: Some lead product prices decreased slightly, and inventory changes included a decrease in LME lead inventory by 3350 tons and an increase in上期所 lead inventory by 982 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices decreased, and inventory changes were noted, such as an increase in social alumina inventory by 2.1 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel - related product prices mostly decreased, and inventory changes included an increase in LME nickel inventory by 1080 tons and a decrease in domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts by 121 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices decreased, and inventory changes included an increase in上期所 zinc inventory by 793 tons and a decrease in LME zinc inventory by 475 tons [6]. - **Tin**: Tin prices decreased slightly, and inventory changes included an increase in上期所 tin inventory by 75 tons and an increase in LME tin inventory by 30 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][13][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team at Everbright Futures is led by Zhan Dapeng, a science master, who serves as the director of non - ferrous research, a senior precious metals researcher, and has multiple professional titles. The team also includes Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, focusing on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, focusing on lithium and nickel research [51][52].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.02% to 66.22 cents per pound, CF601 decreased 0.11% to 14,010 yuan per ton, and the main - contract position decreased by 5,814 lots to 518,700 lots. The cotton market price in Xinjiang was about 15,350 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day, and the national average price was 15,443 yuan per ton, up 56 yuan. Internationally, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the U.S. cotton futures price fluctuates at a low level. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuates narrowly around 14,000 yuan per ton. The new cotton in Shandong's Heze area has an earlier picking time this year. Considering the acquisition cost, the current 01 contract lacks a clear directional drive and is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - For sugar, as of August 31, 2025, Yunnan Province's cumulative sugar sales reached 2.0823 million tons, with a sales rate of 86.09%. In August, 130,900 tons were sold. The industrial inventory was 336,400 tons. The spot prices of sugar groups in various regions were lowered. Affected by the expected high yield in the Northern Hemisphere, the raw sugar futures price continued to decline. Domestically, the spot price continued to fall, and the futures price continued the downward trend. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and future import data and new sugar pre - sales should be monitored [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread was 60, up 20; the main - contract basis was 1,433, up 36. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,350, up 50, and the national spot price was 15,443, up 56 [3]. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread was 22, down 8; the main - contract basis was 412, up 19. The Nanning spot price was 5,880, down 20, and the Liuzhou spot price was 5,945, down 10 [3]. 2. Market Information - On September 4, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 5,829, down 167 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts. The cotton market prices in different domestic regions were: 15,350 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,450 in Henan, 15,500 in Shandong, and 15,600 in Zhejiang [4]. - On September 4, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.8, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27, down 0.1. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 49.3, unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 31.2, unchanged [4]. - On September 4, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 5,880 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [4]. - On September 4, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 12,752, down 30 from the previous trading day, with 6 valid forecasts [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [7][9][10][11][12][13][15][16][18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall view of various agricultural products is mainly "oscillating." For corn, the 11 - month contract is expected to oscillate, with short - term operations focusing on whether the 2200 - yuan mark can be effectively broken through. For soybeans and related products, they are also in an oscillating state, and short - term participation is recommended. For palm oil and other oils, prices are oscillating due to factors such as high inventory and low consumption. For eggs, the short - term recommendation is to wait and see, and in the long - term, pay attention to the change in production capacity. For pigs, the price is expected to be weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: In the futures market, the 11 - month contract adjusted with position reduction this week, and the 9 - month contract rebounded due to the delayed listing of Liaoxi corn. In the spot market, before the new grain is listed, the supply is expected to increase, and the corn price shows a weak performance. Technically, the 11 - month contract encountered resistance at the 2200 - yuan mark and ended six consecutive positive days. Short - term operations should focus on whether the 2200 - yuan mark can be effectively broken through [2] - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rebounded from a three - week low on Thursday. In the domestic market, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to oscillate, with funds leaving the market and low trading volume. Oil mills have high inventories, and downstream feed enterprises have sufficient positions until the end of the month, with low purchasing willingness [2] - **Oils**: BMD palm oil oscillated narrowly on Thursday and rose on a weekly basis. An investigation shows that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August increased for the sixth consecutive month. In the domestic market, oil prices are oscillating and adjusting due to factors such as low consumption, high inventory, and large supply pressure [2] - **Eggs**: The egg futures price showed insufficient rebound strength after a low - level rebound at the beginning of the week. In the spot market, the terminal digestion improved near the weekend, and most egg prices in the sales areas rose. In the long - term, pay attention to the change in the number of old hens being culled and later replenishment [2][3] - **Pigs**: The main 2511 contract of live pig futures fell on Thursday. In the spot market, the average daily price of live pigs in China decreased. Affected by supply - side pressure, the pig price is weak, and the futures price may continue to be weak in the short - term [3] Market Information - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has deployed a fall inspection of the crop seed market nationwide, focusing on key crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and vegetables, and will send 5 working groups to key seed - using areas for supervision [4] - The bid - winning rate of CGC's rapeseed oil and sunflower oil procurement on September 4 was 100% [4] - According to MPOA data, the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from August 1 - 31 increased by 2.07%, with an estimated total output of 1.85 million tons [5] Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for multiple varieties including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [7][8][12][16] - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis for multiple varieties including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [15][18][19][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea futures prices showed a weak oscillation on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,714 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.32%. The spot market was weak, with prices in mainstream regions dropping by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Supply was at a phased low, and demand was insufficient. Exports continued, and the market would fluctuate with Indian tender news. Futures prices were expected to continue wide - range oscillations [1]. - Soda ash futures prices were firm and oscillating on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,277 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Spot market quotes were mostly stable. This week, production increased by 4.55%, enterprise inventory decreased by 2.55%, but social inventory rose. Demand was weak and stable. Futures prices were expected to oscillate widely in the short term [1]. - Glass futures prices oscillated weakly on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,139 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.09%. The spot market was stable. Supply was stable, and demand showed no obvious change. Inventory increased slightly by 0.77%. The market was expected to continue bottom - consolidation [1]. Market Information Urea - On September 4, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 7,928, an increase of 723 from the previous trading day, with 778 valid forecasts [4]. - On September 4, the daily urea production was 182,000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous day and 1,000 tons from the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 77.79%, a decrease of 5.18 percentage points from 82.97% last year [4]. - On September 4, small - particle urea spot prices in various regions in China: Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Henan was 1,710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Hebei was 1,700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Anhui was 1,710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Jiangsu was 1,710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Shanxi was 1,610 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - On September 3, urea enterprise inventory was 1.095 million tons, an increase of 9,200 tons or 0.85% from the previous week [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On September 4, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 4,934, a decrease of 298 from the previous trading day, with 1,268 valid forecasts. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,132, an increase of 106 from the previous trading day [7]. - On September 4, soda ash spot prices in different regions varied. For example, in North China, light soda ash was 1,220 yuan/ton and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton [7]. - As of September 4, the weekly soda ash production was 751,700 tons, an increase of 32,700 tons or 4.55%. The capacity utilization rate was 86.22%, an increase of 3.75 percentage points [7]. - As of September 4, domestic soda ash manufacturers' inventory was 1.8221 million tons, a decrease of 45,400 tons or 2.43% week - on - week [7]. - On September 4, the average price of the float glass market was 1,156 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The daily production was 159,600 tons, also unchanged [7]. - As of September 4, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.05 million weight cases, an increase of 484,000 weight cases or 0.77% week - on - week, and a decrease of 11.77% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.9 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous week [7]. Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts such as urea and soda ash base differences, trading volume and open interest of main contracts, price trends of main contracts, spreads between different contracts, and spot price trends [9][11][15]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Light Period Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [1] Group 2: Contract Spreads - I05 closed at 767.5 yuan/ton, up 13.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 831.0 yuan/ton, up 18.0 yuan; I01 closed at 791.5 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan [3] - The spread of I05 - I09 was -63.5 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan; I09 - I01 was 39.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan; I01 - I05 was 24.0 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan [3] Group 3: Basis 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of various iron ore varieties changed. For example, the basis of Carajás fines was 62 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; BRBF was 45 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; Newman fines was 27 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [6] 3.2 Basis Chart - There are charts showing the basis of different iron ore types such as Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, and domestic ores [8][9][10] Group 4: Exchange Rule Changes - Since December 2, the main iron ore contract has been I2205. Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Iron Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian Iron Concentrate) were added with brand premiums of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [11] - Brand premiums of existing varieties were adjusted. Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and others are 0 [11] - Quality difference and premium rules for substitutes were modified, including adjusting the allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators and introducing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for iron element premium [11] - Four more deliverable brands (Taigang Iron Concentrate, Magang Iron Concentrate, Minmetals Standard Fines, SP10 Fines) were added with brand premiums of 0, applicable to I2312 and subsequent contracts [11] Group 5: Variety Spreads 5.1 Variety Spread Data - The spread of PB lump - PB fines was 142.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan; PB fines - mixed fines was 60.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan; etc. [13] 5.2 Variety Spread Charts - There are multiple charts showing different variety spreads such as lump - powder spreads, high - medium grade powder spreads, medium - low grade powder spreads, etc. [14][16][18][21][22] Group 6: Research Team - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with rich industry experience and professional qualifications [25]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - On September 4th, industrial silicon showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,515 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.12%. The position decreased by 2,437 lots to 277,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,369 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 product回调 to 8,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 40 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 52,195 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.55%. The position decreased by 3,260 lots to 146,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 49,000 yuan/ton. The spot discount widened to 3,410 yuan/ton. The resumption of production in the north and south of industrial silicon and the increase in crystalline silicon production have become marginal drivers, and the overall operating center is expected to rise slightly. After the previous anti-involution news was fully priced in, the trading center of polysilicon has gradually shifted to fundamental logic. Due to the limitation of the terminal power station's rate of return, the acceptance of price increases in the component sector has reached its peak, and the silicon material market has cooled down following the downstream market sentiment. Before the introduction of specific policy measures, the market is still in a game between policy support and fundamental drag. Polysilicon has entered a range mode with obvious top and bottom levels, and policy dynamics have a phased disturbance effect on the market. Attention should be paid to the results of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's energy-saving special inspection on September 30th and the inventory clearance situation in the industrial chain. [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Research View - On September 4th, industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend. The main factors affecting the market include the resumption of production in the north and south of industrial silicon, the increase in crystalline silicon production, the limitation of the terminal power station's rate of return, and the cooling of the downstream market sentiment. The market is currently in a game between policy support and fundamental drag, and policy dynamics have a phased disturbance effect on the market. [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract remained unchanged at 8,505 yuan/ton. The price of the near-month contract increased by 75 yuan/ton to 8,560 yuan/ton. The spot prices of most grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged, except for the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Tianjin Port, which decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 276 to 50,072, and the total social inventory increased by 7,000 tons to 442,900 tons. [3] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 35 yuan/ton to 52,195 yuan/ton, and the price of the near-month contract increased by 80 yuan/ton to 52,410 yuan/ton. The spot prices of most grades of polysilicon remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price was 49,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount increased by 80 yuan/ton to 3,410 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 6,870, and the total social inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 245,000 tons. [3] - **Organic Silicon**: The spot prices of most organic silicon products remained unchanged, except for the price of dimethyl silicone oil, which increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton. [3] 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, the price differences between grades, the regional price differences, the electricity prices, the silicon stone prices, and the refined coal prices. [4][6][10] - **Downstream Product Prices**: The charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. [13][16][18] - **Inventory**: The charts show the inventory of industrial silicon futures, industrial silicon warehouses, industrial silicon weekly industry inventory, industrial silicon weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory. [22][23][25] - **Cost and Profit**: The charts show the average cost levels and average profit levels of the main production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of polysilicon. [28][30][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4][5][6] Core Viewpoints - The oil price is oscillating due to factors such as inventory changes, OPEC+ production decisions, and market expectations [1] - The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC are also expected to oscillate, with their trends depending on various factors including cost, supply, demand, and market sentiment [2][4][5][6] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices fell. The EIA inventory report showed an increase in US commercial crude and SPR inventories, a decrease in gasoline inventory, and an increase in distillate inventory. US domestic crude production and refinery processing volume decreased. OPEC+ meeting agenda is yet to be set, and some members may increase production. The oil price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the fuel oil futures prices fell. The Chinese refinery operating rate increased. The inflow of low-sulfur fuel oil from the West is expected to decrease, and the high-sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may also decline. However, the overall demand for high and low sulfur fuel oil remains weak. The prices of FU and LU have some upward momentum but depend on the oil price [2] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the asphalt futures price fell. The domestic asphalt shipments increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt decreased. In September, the demand in the north may increase, but the supply in North and Northeast China may limit the price increase. The overall supply pressure is limited, and the price may rise further [2] - **Polyester**: On Thursday, the TA futures price fell, and the EG futures price rose. PX supply is high, and downstream TA maintenance volume increases. The terminal demand is weak, and the demand in the peak season is under test. The EG spot liquidity is tight, but the inventory may increase in the future [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the RU and NR futures prices rose, and the BR futures price fell. The weather in the producing areas may be affected by La Nina. The raw material prices fluctuate slightly, and the demand is stable domestically and weak externally. The heavy truck sales are good, and the inventory is slightly reduced. The rubber price is expected to oscillate [4][5] - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the methanol spot price is stable. The MTO device may resume production due to improved profits, and the demand in September is expected to pick up. The supply increment is limited, and the price is expected to enter a bottom area [5] - **Polyolefin**: On Thursday, the polyolefin prices are stable. In September, the supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is gradually transferred to the downstream. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly [5] - **PVC**: On Thursday, the PVC market prices are adjusted. The real estate construction is weak, and the demand for PVC downstream products is limited. The export is expected to decline due to the anti-dumping tax. The PVC price in September is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on September 4th and 5th, 2025 [7] Market News - The EIA inventory report shows the changes in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, as well as domestic production and refinery processing volume [9] - OPEC's oil production in August may increase, mainly due to the output growth of the UAE and Saudi Arabia. OPEC+ is accelerating the relaxation of production cuts, while some members are required to make additional cuts [9] Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [11][13][15][17][19][21] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [23][25][29][31][33][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread trends of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [37][39][42][45][48][49][52] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio trends between different varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [54][59] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the cash flow and production profit trends of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [62][64] Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [67][68][69][70]

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-09-05 一、指数走势 09 月 04 日，上证综指涨跌幅-1.25%，收于 3765.88 点，成交额 11078.92 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-2.83%，收于 12118.7 点，成交额 14363.65 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-2.3%，成交额 4885.95 亿元，其中开盘价 7214.72，收盘价 7041.15，当日最高价 7255.0，最低价 6939.66； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-2.48%，成交额 4719.91 亿元，其中开盘价 6884.36，收盘价 6698.45，当日最高价 6906.69，最低价 6607.98； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅-2.12%，成交额 7731.25 亿元，其中开盘价 4461.25，收盘价 4365.21，当日最高价 4465.5，最低价 4327.51； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅-1.71%，成交额 2080.35 亿元，其中开盘价 2949.97，收盘价 2910.47，当日最高价 2949.97，最低价 2879.41。 图表 1：中证 1000、中证 500、沪深 300、上证 50 日内走势（%） ...