Index Trends - On January 26, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09% to close at 4132.61 points, with a trading volume of 1.45186 trillion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.85% to close at 14316.64 points, with a trading volume of 1.796343 trillion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 1.24% with a trading volume of 703.182 billion yuan, opening at 8513.22, closing at 8365.43, with a high of 8530.42 and a low of 8302.1 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 0.97% with a trading volume of 692.105 billion yuan, opening at 8624.89, closing at 8506.69, with a high of 8671.35 and a low of 8453.48 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.1% with a trading volume of 796.833 billion yuan, opening at 4715.38, closing at 4706.96, with a high of 4754.18 and a low of 4693.16 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.57% with a trading volume of 239.456 billion yuan, opening at 3042.37, closing at 3049.59, with a high of 3088.57 and a low of 3039.64 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 fell 105.31 points from the previous close. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals had a significant upward pull on the index, while sectors like computer, machinery, and electronics had a significant downward pull [3]. - The CSI 500 fell 83.48 points from the previous close. Non - ferrous metals had an upward pull, while sectors like automotive, defense, and electronics had a downward pull [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 4.46 points from the previous close. Non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and petroleum and petrochemicals had an upward pull, while defense, power equipment, and electronics had a downward pull [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 17.4 points from the previous close. Non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and petroleum and petrochemicals had an upward pull, while electronics had a downward pull [3]. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 16.41, IM01 of - 48.09, IM02 of - 186.11, and IM03 of - 336.24 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 0.12, IC01 of - 8.26, IC02 of - 73.8, and IC03 of - 168.27 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of 8.25, IF01 of 14.27, IF02 of - 1.59, and IF03 of - 46.65 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 4.7, IH01 of 8.46, IH02 of 9.64, and IH03 of - 21.22 [13].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡偏强，国内精炼铜现货进口持续亏损状态。宏观方面，美国 Q3 实际 | | | | | | | | | GDP 季环比终值小幅上修至 4.4%，创两年来最快增速，核心 PCE 通胀保持在 2.9%;美 | | | | | | | | | 11 月 PCE 物价指数同比 2.8%，环比涨 0.2%，均符合预期,通胀预期稳定，消费支出稳 | | | | | | | | | | 健。国内方面，央行行长表示灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，今年降准降 | | | | | | | | 息还有一定的空间。库存方面，LME 库存增加 8850 吨至 168250 吨；Comex | | 库存增加 | | | | | | | 4031 吨至 507437 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 2408 吨至 143173 吨，BC 铜下降 75 吨至 | | | | 10685 | | ...

农产品日报（2026 年 1 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 国家粮油信息中心：1 月 16 日，我国进口 2、3 月船期美国大豆 CNF 报价均为 473 美元/吨，较巴西大豆 高 25~29 美元/吨；折合华南地区到港完税成本 4183 元/吨（13%关税），较巴西大豆高 558~589 元/吨。 国家统计局：2025 年 12 月粗钢产量 6818 万吨，同比减少 10.3%，环比减少 2.4%；1-12 月产量为 96081 万 吨，同比减少 4.4%。2025 年 12 月钢材产量 11531 万吨，同比减少 3.8%，环比减少 0.5%；1-12 月产量为 144612 万吨，同比增长 3.1%。 国家统计局数据显示，全年全国粮食总产量 71488 万吨，比上年增加 838 万吨，增长 1.2%。分品种看，小 麦产量 14007 万吨，基本持平；玉米产量 30124 万吨，增长 2.1%；大豆产量 2091 万吨，增长 1.3%。 国家统计局：初步核算，2025 年全年国内生产总值 1401879 亿元，比上年增长 5.0%。分产业看，第一产业 增加值 93347 亿元，比上年增长 3.9%；第二产 ...

2026 年 1 月 2 3 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 786.5 | 784.0 | 2.5 | I05-I09 | 17.0 | 17.5 | -0.5 | | I09 | 769.5 | 766.5 | 3.0 | I09-I01 | 12.5 | 14.0 | -1.5 | | I01 | 757.0 | 752.5 | 4.5 | I01-I05 | -29.5 | -31.5 | 2.0 | 光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡偏强，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3124 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 上涨 7 元/吨，涨幅为 0.22%，持仓减少 1.78 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普 | 窄幅震荡 | | | 方坯价格持平于 2930 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3200 元/吨，全国建材成交量 7.15 万吨。据我 | | | | 的钢铁数据，本周螺纹产量增加 9.25 万吨至 199.55 万吨，社库增加 7.71 万吨至 303.12 万吨，厂库增加 | | | | 6.32 万吨至 148.98 万吨，螺纹表需回落 4.82 万吨至 185.52 万吨。螺纹产量明显回升，库存有所累积，表 | | | | 需回落，供需数据有所趋弱。目前螺纹整体处于供需双弱局面，库存压力不大，但驱动也不强。预计短期 | | | | 螺纹盘面价格仍以窄幅震荡运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | | 震荡 | | | 昨日 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 1 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 1、郑商所数据：1 月 22 日纯碱期货仓单数量 70 张，较上一交易日-152 张，有效预报 2747 张；玻璃期货仓单数量 250 张，较上一交易日-283 张。 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四尿素期货价格坚挺震荡，主力05合约收盘价1776元/吨，涨幅0.23%。现货市场 价格多数稳定，山东、河南地区市场价格分别维持在1750元/吨、1740元/吨。基本 | | | | 面来看，近期尿素日产水平位于20万吨以上波动，昨日维持在20.51万吨。需求跟 | | | | 进放量，昨日主流地区产销率多数攀升至160%~224%区间，少部分地区成交偏弱， | | | | 产销率在50%~80%附近。后续虽仍有淡储肥及部分春耕前置储备需求预期，但近 | | | 尿素 | 日中下游补库后需求承接力需继续观 ，后续采购需求力度依旧取决于市场对价格 | 宽幅 震荡 | | | 的接受程度。本周尿素企业库存继续下降4.07%，支撑厂家订单及提价心态。但鉴 | | | | 于 ...

Research View - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 rose 2.55% to CNY 168,780 per ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by CNY 6,000 per ton to CNY 164,500 per ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose by CNY 6,000 per ton to CNY 161,000 per ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by CNY 5,000 per ton to CNY 156,500 per ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 230 tons to 28,886 tons [3]. - According to the preliminary calculation of the Passenger Car Association, the total retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars this month is expected to be around 1.8 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 20.4% and a year - on - year flat to slightly increase. Among them, new energy retail sales can reach around 800,000 units, with a penetration rate of 44.4% [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 388 tons to 22,217 tons. The output of lithium extracted from spodumene decreased by 210 tons to 13,914 tons, the output of lithium extracted from lepidolite decreased by 54 tons to 2,882 tons, the output of lithium extracted from salt lakes decreased by 30 tons to 3,115 tons, and the output of lithium extracted from recycled materials decreased by 94 tons to 2,306 tons. On the demand side, in January 2026, the production of ternary power batteries is expected to decrease by 6.15% month - on - month to 28.7 GWh, the production of iron - lithium power batteries is expected to decrease by 9.77% month - on - month to 90.01 GWh, and the production of iron - lithium energy storage batteries is expected to increase by 0.99% month - on - month to 63.15 GWh. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 783 tons to 108,898 tons. Among them, the inventory of downstream increased by 1,940 tons to 37,592 tons, the inventory of other links decreased by 2,830 tons to 51,470 tons, and the inventory of upstream increased by 107 tons to 19,834 tons [3]. - Due to the dual disturbances of supply and cost at the resource end, maintenance and export rush may lead to the expectation of inventory reduction in the first quarter. Without negative feedback on demand in the industry, a bullish approach is recommended. The short - term demand can be verified by the weekly replenishment demand of downstream. However, the inventory turnover days are still low. Considering the upcoming Spring Festival, downstream still has the motivation to replenish inventory. In the short term, the price will fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to the amplification of market volatility and the impact of positions [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - The main contract closing price of lithium carbonate futures rose from CNY 166,740 per ton on January 21, 2026, to CNY 168,780 per ton on January 22, 2026, an increase of CNY 2,040. The continuous contract closing price rose from CNY 165,080 per ton to CNY 166,500 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,420. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased from USD 2,035 per ton to USD 2,130 per ton, an increase of USD 95. The price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) increased from CNY 3,060 per ton to CNY 3,200 per ton, an increase of CNY 140. The price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) increased from CNY 4,835 per ton to CNY 4,975 per ton, an increase of CNY 140. The price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) increased from CNY 15,350 per ton to CNY 15,750 per ton, an increase of CNY 400. The price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) increased from CNY 16,950 per ton to CNY 17,350 per ton, an increase of CNY 400 [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) increased from CNY 158,500 per ton to CNY 164,500 per ton, an increase of CNY 6,000. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) increased from CNY 155,000 per ton to CNY 161,000 per ton, an increase of CNY 6,000. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) increased from CNY 151,500 per ton to CNY 156,500 per ton, an increase of CNY 5,000. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) increased from CNY 156,350 per ton to CNY 161,350 per ton, an increase of CNY 5,000. The price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) increased from CNY 143,900 per ton to CNY 148,900 per ton, an increase of CNY 5,000. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) increased from USD 16.8 per kg to USD 18.75 per kg, an increase of USD 1.95 [5]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased from CNY 149,500 per ton to CNY 148,500 per ton, a decrease of CNY 1,000. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at CNY 3,500 per ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased from CNY 7,000 per ton to CNY 8,000 per ton, a decrease of CNY 1,000. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased from CNY - 33,876.48 per ton to CNY - 25,214.38 per ton, an increase of CNY 8,662 [5]. - The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power - type) decreased from CNY 119,150 per ton to CNY 119,100 per ton, a decrease of CNY 50. The price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer - type) decreased from CNY 105,250 per ton to CNY 105,050 per ton, a decrease of CNY 200. The price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) decreased from CNY 98,700 per ton to CNY 98,650 per ton, a decrease of CNY 50. The price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) decreased from CNY 119,200 per ton to CNY 119,100 per ton, a decrease of CNY 100 [5]. - The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) increased from CNY 193,000 per ton to CNY 194,600 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,600. The price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) increased from CNY 182,600 per ton to CNY 183,800 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,200. The price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) increased from CNY 187,900 per ton to CNY 189,200 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,300. The price of ternary material 811 (power - type) increased from CNY 205,700 per ton to CNY 206,400 per ton, an increase of CNY 700 [5]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) increased from CNY 55,595 per ton to CNY 57,050 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,455. The price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage) increased from CNY 54,045 per ton to CNY 55,500 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,455. The price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) increased from CNY 50,470 per ton to CNY 51,870 per ton, an increase of CNY 1,400. The price of lithium manganate (power - type) increased from CNY 57,000 per ton to CNY 57,500 per ton, an increase of CNY 500. The price of lithium manganate (capacity - type) increased from CNY 55,000 per ton to CNY 55,500 per ton, an increase of CNY 500. The price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) remained at CNY 404,500 per ton [5]. - The price of 523 square ternary cells increased from CNY 0.525 per Wh to CNY 0.526 per Wh, an increase of CNY 0.001. The price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained at CNY 0.54 per Wh. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries increased from CNY 4.85 per piece to CNY 4.95 per piece, an increase of CNY 0.1. The price of square lithium iron phosphate cells increased from CNY 0.356 per Wh to CNY 0.357 per Wh, an increase of CNY 0.001. The price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power - type) increased from CNY 0.47 per Wh to CNY 0.48 per Wh, an increase of CNY 0.01. The price of cobalt acid lithium cells increased from CNY 7.75 per Ah to CNY 7.85 per Ah, an increase of CNY 0.1. The price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries remained at CNY 0.306 per Wh [5]. Chart Analysis Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][17]. Price Spreads - Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2026 [19][20][21]. Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][30]. Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [32][36]. Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from June 5, 2025, to January 22, 2026 [38][40]. Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2026 [43][44].

点评 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2026 年 1 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 22 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8825/吨，日内涨幅 1.03%，持仓 增仓 4801 手至 22.8 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9628 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货升水收至 25 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 50515 元/吨，日内涨幅 2.4%，持 仓减仓 602 手至 43318 手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格跌至 54000 元/ 吨，最低交割品硅料价格 54000 元/吨，现货升水收至 3485 元/吨。西南 除自备电厂和一体化供应以外全面停炉，新疆检修结束出现复产，中和 供给端减量。下游减产导致工业硅整体上行受挫。多晶硅供需失衡压力 叠加反垄断监管施压，市场交易逻辑由消息炒作转会基本面视角，硅料 强势挺价底气难以延续。近期出口退税取消引发海外订单激增、大幅缓 解组件排产压力，因硅片环节原料积压，增量未能传导至硅料环节，晶 硅端减产规模将进一步扩大。预计短期盘面大涨无力、平稳运行，现货 报价或逐步失去支撑。 请务必阅读正文之后的 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 1 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.61%，报收 63.91 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 1.06%， | 震荡 | | | 报收 14730 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 12765 手至 80 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价 | | | | 格指数 15520 元/吨，较前一日上涨 75 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期海外宏观扰动 | | | | 不断，美联储年内首次降息预期推迟至 6 月，美元指数偏弱，美棉价格仍缺乏持续 | | | | 性驱动。国内市场方面，昨日郑棉期价增仓上行。近期关于 2026 年新疆地区种植 | | | | 面积调整的预期交易逐渐降温，市场关注重心回归基本面，聚焦主要在于节前下游 | | | | 备货需求及开工情况。目前来看，上周纺企与织厂有补充原料库存动作，从库存结 | | | | 构来看，TTEB 数据显示纺织原料库存可用天数约 32 天，节前 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 1 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周四油价回落，其中 WTI 3 月合约收盘下跌 1.26 美元至 59.36 美 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 元/桶，跌幅 2.08%。布伦特 3 月合约收盘下跌 1.18 美元至 64.06 美元/桶，跌幅 1.81%。SC2603 以 436.6 元/桶收盘，下跌 9.7 元/ | | | | 桶，跌幅为 2.17%。EIA 报告显示，截至 1 月 16 日当周原油库存 | | | | 增加 360 万桶，远超分析师预测的 110 万桶增幅，也高于美国石 | | | | 油协会前日报告的 300 万桶增量。汽油库存触及 2021 年以来最高 | | | 原油 | 水平，出口量下降逾 50 万桶/日。乌克兰安全局的无人机袭击了 | 震荡 | | | 位于俄罗斯克拉斯诺达尔边疆区的塔曼石油天然气码头，该港口 | | | | 是黑海地区最大的港口之一，负责石油、天然气和氨的转运。其 | | | | 石油产品和液化气储罐容量超过 100 万立方米。当前油价表现仍 | | ...