工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 11 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 点评 6 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 9065 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.17%，持仓 增仓 4006 手至 23.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9654 元/吨，较上一交易 日上调 14 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格持稳在 8900 元/吨，现货贴水扩至 200 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 53395 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.09%，持仓减仓 2818 手至 12.2 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格 52000 元 /吨，最低交割品硅料价格在 52500 元/吨，现货升水收至 500 元/吨。工业 硅重心继续跟随成本回升，但盘面针对后期减产已经充分计价，工业硅供 需改善有余但去库不足，存在见顶压力。西南开启减产季，硅片排产受配 额限制，多晶硅由供需双增转向供需减量博弈格局，有望迎来阶段去库节 奏。重点关注仓单注销冲击下，能否形成实际性去库结果。近期行业公开 产能收储平台 17 家企业完成签字，现货限价坚挺支撑底部，后续平台正式 成立和控产的动态频发，将给予盘面持续向上驱动。 请务必阅读正文之后的免 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 6, 2025, the 2601 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 1.95% to 80,500 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 80,400 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 78,200 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped by 250 yuan/ton to 75,680 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 410 tons to 26,420 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 454 tons to 21,534 tons. In November, the supply decreased slightly by 0.2% to 92,080 tons, mainly due to a decline in lithium mica - derived lithium. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials increased by 666 tons to 19,234 tons, and the inventory increased by 663 tons to 19,553 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1400 tons to 88,990 tons, and the inventory increased by 740 tons to 105,719 tons. In November, the output of ternary materials increased slightly by 1% to 85,000 tons, and the output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4% to 410,000 tons. The total consumption of lithium carbonate by the two main materials increased by 4% to 114,600 tons. The social inventory has been decreasing for 12 consecutive weeks, with a weekly reduction of 3406 tons to 123,953 tons, and the total social inventory turnover days dropped to a historical low of 31.5 days [3]. - After the market on November 6, the Natural Resources Department of Jiangxi Province released a public notice on the assessment report of the mining right transfer income of the Zhenkouli - Jianxiawo Mine in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province. With the increased expectation of project resumption, the price may face downward pressure, but current demand still supports the price from the bottom [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract and the continuous contract is marked as N/A, while the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased by 1 dollar/ton to 919 dollars/ton. Among lithium ores, the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) and (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained unchanged, while the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) increased by 55 yuan/ton to 7045 yuan/ton, and (Li2O: 7% - 8%) increased by 65 yuan/ton to 8405 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium and lithium salts: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 80,400 yuan/ton, industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 78,200 yuan/ton, and various types of lithium hydroxide prices decreased by 250 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 1000 yuan/ton to 119,500 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2200 yuan/ton, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to - 4720 yuan/ton [5]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials remained unchanged, while the prices of different types of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly, and the prices of manganese acid lithium and cobalt acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - Batteries: The prices of various types of battery cells and batteries remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][8][9]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][12][13]. - Price differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant price differences from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][18]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][28]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33][34]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from March to October 2025 [37][38][39]. - Production cost: A chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [41][42][43].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 1.15% to 64.48 cents per pound, while CF601 rose 0.52% to 13,605 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 1,553 lots to 579,100 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,490 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day. The market focus is on the macro - level. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December is fluctuating. U.S. cotton prices declined as the U.S. dollar index weakened. Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating around 13,600 yuan per ton. The adjustment of Sino - U.S. tariffs will take effect on November 10, boosting market sentiment. Currently, Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure but also has support. This year's new cotton has a bumper harvest, resulting in significant supply - side pressure. The support comes from consumption, cost, and expectations. There is no strong new driver on both supply and demand sides, and the supply - demand contradiction within the year is not prominent. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate at the current price in the short term, waiting for new drivers [1]. - **Sugar**: The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making group is 5,620 - 5,700 yuan per ton, with some prices up 20 yuan per ton. Yunnan sugar - making group's old sugar is priced at 5,530 - 5,580 yuan per ton, and new sugar at 5,490 - 5,690 yuan per ton. The raw sugar price hit a five - year low last night and then rebounded slightly. With the expected bumper harvests in India, Thailand, and China, the short - term sugar price rebound is weak. Guangxi sugar mills are actively reducing inventory to prepare for the new crushing season. There is no significant new driver in the market, and the price center is slowly moving down. The support at 5,400 yuan per ton needs further verification. Attention should be paid to the import data for October [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 10 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis is 1,215 yuan, up 5 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang is 14,618 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan, and the national spot price is 14,820 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 50 yuan, down 4 yuan; the main contract basis is 242 yuan, down 7 yuan. The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,690 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On November 6, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,769, an increase of 17 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1,512. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions on November 6 were: 14,618 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,852 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,869 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,950 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. On November 6, the comprehensive load of yarn was 51.3, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.6, unchanged; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 51.9, unchanged; and the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 30.4, unchanged [3]. - **Sugar**: On November 6, the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou was 5,690 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 7,422, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1,586 [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of sugar [7][14]. 4. Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, who focuses on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [19][20][21]. 5. Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures prices continued to oscillate strongly on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,644 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.74%. Spot prices were mostly stable. The daily output of the urea industry decreased slightly, and the demand follow - up sentiment improved. Although enterprise inventory increased by 1.53% this week, short - term market logic is shifting to factors such as coal cost support, reduced production of gas - based enterprises, and export rumors. The new export quota news may drive the market up, but caution is advised [1]. - Soda ash futures prices oscillated in a wide range and trended strongly on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,207 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.84%. Spot manufacturers' quotes were mostly stable, while traders' quotes continued to strengthen. This week, the industry's start - up rate and production decreased, and enterprise inventory increased slightly. Demand was stable, but the downstream was more cautious after the rebound. The fundamentals still face pressure, and excessive bullishness is not recommended [1]. - Glass futures prices fluctuated widely and trended weakly on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,101 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.45%. The spot market rebounded slightly. The industry's production capacity decreased, and the demand sentiment was positive, but the sustainability needs verification. After the production line maintenance, the short - term market lacks new drivers and returns to a wide - range oscillation pattern [1]. Summary by Directory Market Information Urea - On November 6, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 3,900, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1,192 [4]. - On November 6, the daily output of the urea industry was 19.59 tons, a decrease of 0.08 tons from the previous working day, and an increase of 1.22 tons compared with the same period last year. The start - up rate was 83.73%, 1.35 percentage points higher than 82.38% in the same period last year [4]. - On November 6, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were mostly unchanged. For example, the price in Shandong was 1,580 yuan/ton, in Henan was 1,570 yuan/ton, etc. [4]. - As of November 5, the urea enterprise inventory was 157.81 tons, an increase of 2.38 tons or 1.53% compared with last week [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On November 6, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 9,318, a decrease of 300 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 756. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 219, a decrease of 34 from the previous trading day [7]. - On November 6, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions varied. For example, in North China, the light soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, and the heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton [7]. - As of the week of November 6, the soda ash industry's start - up rate was 85.67%, a decrease of 1.23 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly production was 74.69 tons, a decrease of 1.07 tons or 1.41% [7]. - As of November 6, the soda ash manufacturer inventory was 171.42 tons, an increase of 2.24 tons or 1.32% compared with Monday, and an increase of 1.22 tons or 0.72% compared with last Thursday [7]. - As of November 6, the average price of the float glass market was 1,157 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The industry's daily output was 15.91 tons, a decrease of 0.014 tons from the previous day [7]. - As of November 6, the inventory of domestic float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.654 million weight boxes or 4.03% from the previous week, and an increase of 29.05% compared with the same period last year. The inventory days were 27.1 days, a decrease of 0.9 days from last week [8]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including the closing prices of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, their basis, trading volume and open interest, the price difference between different contracts, spot price trends, and the price difference between different futures varieties. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [10][22][23]. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, focuses on the sugar industry. She has rich experience and many honors in the industry [25]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, is responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has participated in many projects and won multiple awards [25]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, is mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Bullish [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways [1] - Oils: Sideways [1] - Eggs: Sideways [1] - Hogs: Sideways [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn futures prices are expected to continue rebounding due to the breakthrough of the bottom pattern and the support from the spot market. The downstream feed enterprises are purchasing as needed and remaining cautious in the long - term [1]. - For soybean meal, the domestic protein meal is strong, but the sufficient supply of domestic soybeans and soybean meal limits the upside space. A strategy of long futures + selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [1]. - Oils are experiencing a short - term rebound. The short - term long strategy can be considered, but the high inventory of the three major oils remains a factor [1]. - Egg futures prices are continuing to rebound. The expected decline in future production capacity supports the futures market. Attention should be paid to future capacity changes for trading opportunities [1]. - Hog futures show a pattern of far - month strength and near - month weakness. The short - term price is at a low level, but the long - term long position of the far - month 2609 contract is a market focus [2]. Group 3: Summary of Market Information - From November 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and production increased compared to the same period last month [2]. - Argentina's oilseed workers' union and the industry association reached an agreement on salary increases [3]. - On November 6, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index decreased. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market decreased by 0.7% [3]. - The CNF price and import cost of US soybeans for December shipment are higher than those of Brazilian soybeans [3]. Group 4: Summary of Variety Spreads - The report presents contract spreads and contract basis charts for various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is provided [4][5][6][10][12][13][14][16][20][24] Group 5: Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won many awards and has rich experience [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with over ten years of futures experience and many awards [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and hogs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in economics and rich experience [26].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 11 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 有色商品日报 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价冲高回落，国内精炼铜现货进口窗口持续关闭。宏观方面，美联储票委古 | | | | 尔斯比认为，政府关门导致关键通胀数据缺失，劳动力市场有更多私营部门数据来源， | | | | 但通胀数据严重依赖政府报告，让他对进一步降息持谨慎态度。美联储对降息节奏开 | | | | 始产生较大的分歧，这也让 12 月份降息概率维持在偏低位。另外，美国政府停摆破历 | | | | 史纪录，政府停摆时间越长，对经济影响越大，对股市造成一定拖累，昨晚美股依旧表 | | | | 现出不稳定性，显示市场的诸多不安。库存方面，LME 库存增加 500 吨至 134475 | 吨； | | 铜 | Comex 库存增加 2768 吨至 332413 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 1332 吨至 43893 吨；BC 铜维 | | | | 持 10135 吨。需求方面，旺季成色不足，10 月铜 ...

1. Index Trends - On November 06, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.97% to close at 4007.76 points, with a trading volume of 930.276 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73% to close at 13452.42 points, with a trading volume of 1124.972 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.17% with a trading volume of 405.169 billion yuan, opening at 7482.91, closing at 7551.83, with a daily high of 7551.83 and a low of 7466.75 [1] - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.61% with a trading volume of 352.81 billion yuan, opening at 7243.2, closing at 7345.72, with a daily high of 7352.18 and a low of 7243.2 [1] - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.22% with a trading volume of 143.934 billion yuan, opening at 3015.35, closing at 3044.74, with a daily high of 3049.49 and a low of 3012.44 [1] - The SSE 300 Index rose 1.43% with a trading volume of 553.642 billion yuan, opening at 4642.01, closing at 4693.4, with a daily high of 4698.09 and a low of 4642.01 [1] 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 86.97 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals having a significant upward pull on the index [3] - The CSI 500 rose 116.38 points from the previous close, with electronics and power equipment sectors having a significant upward pull on the index [3] - The SSE 300 rose 66.14 points from the previous close, with electronics, non - ferrous metals, and power equipment sectors having a significant upward pull on the index [3] - The SSE 50 rose 36.77 points from the previous close, with electronics, non - ferrous metals, and non - bank finance sectors having a significant upward pull on the index [3] 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 67.21, IM01 was - 148.22, IM02 was - 363.75, IM03 was - 577.31 [13] - IC00 average daily basis was - 46.7, IC01 was - 106.32, IC02 was - 273.18, IC03 was - 462.04 [13] - IF00 average daily basis was - 9.75, IF01 was - 23.39, IF02 was - 53.99, IF03 was - 95.93 [13] - IH00 average daily basis was - 1.19, IH01 was - 2.55, IH02 was - 4.55, IH03 was - 9.12 [13] 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on IM roll - over point differences and annualized costs at different timeslots from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, including values for IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, etc. [24] - Similar data for IC, IF, and IH roll - over point differences and annualized costs at different timeslots are also presented [26][28][29]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a pattern of rising and oscillating, with cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electronics, and communications leading the gains. The Sino-US summit is conducive to the improvement of China's demand and the valuation of A-share technology stocks. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China boosted market confidence, and the structured market is expected to continue, but be cautious about chasing high prices. The focus of the market may return to fundamentals, and the performance of A-share non-financial sectors in the third quarter showed a certain improvement [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading boosted market sentiment. The economy continued its weak recovery, and the bond market is expected to be strong in November, but lacks the power to continue to strengthen, so short-term treasury bonds should be viewed with an interval oscillation mindset [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Research Views Stock Index Futures - The A-share market rose and oscillated, with the Wind All A up 1.19% and a trading volume of 2.08 trillion yuan. The Sino-US summit is conducive to the Chinese market. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China focused on several main lines, boosting market confidence. The structured market is expected to continue, but the valuation of the science and technology innovation index is at a historical extreme, so be cautious about chasing high prices. The focus of the market may return to fundamentals, and the performance of A-share non-financial sectors in the third quarter showed a certain improvement, with the cumulative revenue of the third quarter report up 0.3% year-on-year and the cumulative net profit up 1.65% year-on-year [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with different performances. The central bank conducted 928 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases on November 6, with a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan. The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading boosted market sentiment. The economy continued its weak recovery, and the bond market is expected to be strong in November, but lacks the power to continue to strengthen, so short-term treasury bonds should be viewed with an interval oscillation mindset [1][2]. 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH rose 1.29%, IF rose 1.61%, IC rose 1.95%, and IM rose 1.29%. The Shanghai Composite 50 rose 1.22%, the CSI 300 rose 1.43%, the CSI 500 rose 1.61%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.17% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.01%, TF fell 0.04%, T fell 0.08%, and TL fell 0.27% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Spot Yields**: The yields of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds all increased [3]. 3. Market News - The Bank of England voted 5:4 to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.00%, interrupting the quarterly interest rate cuts since last August. The forward guidance removed the word "cautious" and adjusted it to "may continue along a gradually downward path." The 2025 GDP growth forecast was raised to 1.5%, and the 2025 CPI forecast was lowered to 2.5%. Traders expect a 15-basis-point interest rate cut in December. In the governor's press conference, it was mentioned that the economy may cool down too much and for too long, and the labor market is slowing down. The inflation rate in September is expected to be the peak, and a clearer downward path of inflation is needed [4]. 4. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - Provided the trend charts of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts and their monthly basis trends [5][6][7][8][9][10]. Treasury Bond Futures - Provided the trend charts of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][13][15][16][17]. Exchange Rates - Provided the trend charts of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and the euro against the US dollar, the British pound against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen [19][20][21][22][24][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. For each specific energy and chemical product, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Volatile [1] - Fuel oil: Volatile [1] - Asphalt: Volatile [3] - Polyester: Volatile [4] - Rubber: Volatile [6] - Methanol: Volatile [6] - Polyolefin: Volatile [8] - Polyvinyl chloride: Volatile and weakening [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude oil**: On Thursday, oil prices fluctuated and declined. Due to increased refinery production, Russia's oil exports from its western ports in November are expected to slightly decrease but remain close to recent historical highs. The official selling price premiums of some Saudi crude oil grades have been adjusted. Currently, oil prices lack a clear driving force and will continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contracts of fuel oil showed mixed trends. The overall supply of fuel oil in Singapore in November is expected to remain sufficient. The market structures of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oils may continue to reverse, and the LU - FU spread still has some room to rebound [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract declined. The northern market demand is shrinking due to temperature, while the southern market has some project rush - work demands but may first consume low - priced social inventory resources. The supply pressure in November has eased, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3]. - **Polyester**: Affected by market news, PX&TA futures prices rebounded significantly, and the processing margin on the disk narrowed. The downstream polyester maintains a high operating rate, and further attention should be paid to the increase in maintenance due to low processing fees. Ethylene glycol has high production, low inventory, and a large number of upcoming production capacities, with limited downstream demand growth and a strong expectation of inventory accumulation [4]. - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber main contracts rose. Due to increased rainfall in the producing areas, raw material prices are unstable. The demand for all - steel tires is better than that of semi - steel tires, and rubber prices will fluctuate [6]. - **Methanol**: Due to the shutdown of major methanol plants in Inner Mongolia and the news of gas restrictions on Iranian plants, the market expects a decrease in subsequent supply, leading to a rebound in methanol prices. However, MTO profit has started to weaken, and traditional downstream support is relatively limited, so methanol prices will tend to fluctuate widely at the bottom [6]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin is gradually moving towards a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high pressure on inventory transfer to downstream. The weak performance of short - term crude oil prices weakens the cost support for polyolefin, but the current spread is at a low level in the past five years, so polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [8]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: The PVC market price has been adjusted downward. Supply remains high, and demand will decline as real - estate construction slows down. The supply - demand pressure is high, and the price is expected to show a weakening and fluctuating trend [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Perspectives - **Crude oil**: WTI December contract closed down $0.17 to $59.43 per barrel, a decline of 0.29%; Brent January contract closed down $0.14 to $63.38 per barrel, a decline of 0.22%; SC2512 closed at 454.4 yuan/barrel, down 6.1 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.32%. Russia's November western port oil exports are expected to be about 2.3 million barrels per day, slightly lower than October's 2.4 million barrels per day. Some Saudi crude oil grade premiums have been reduced by $0.3 per barrel [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contract FU2601 of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.04% to 2,728 yuan/ton; the main contract LU2601 of low - sulfur fuel oil fell 0.24% to 3,269 yuan/ton. As of the week of November 5, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased by 299,000 barrels (1.21%) week - on - week, while Fujairah's fuel oil inventory increased by 2.166 million barrels (33.35%) week - on - week [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract BU2601 fell 2.05% to 3,109 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers increased by 2.9% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 4.7% compared with before the holiday and 2.5% year - on - year [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,688 yuan/ton, up 1.91%; EG2601 closed at 3,924 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. As of November 6, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China was 72.44% (down 3.76% from the previous period), and the PTA load was adjusted to 76.4%. The domestic polyester load was around 91.5% [4]. - **Rubber**: The main contract RU2601 of Shanghai rubber rose 195 yuan/ton to 15,045 yuan/ton, and the main contract NR rose 195 yuan/ton to 12,130 yuan/ton. The weekly operating load of domestic semi - steel tires was 74.45%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 4.37 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.54%, up 0.21 percentage points from last week and 5.35 percentage points from the same period last year [6]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,095 yuan/ton. Due to plant failures and gas restrictions, the market expects a decrease in supply, but MTO profit has weakened, and traditional downstream support is limited [6]. - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,400 - 6,600 yuan/ton. The profit margins of various production methods of polyolefin were negative. The prices of PE films decreased compared with last week [8]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: The prices in East, North, and South China PVC markets were adjusted downward. Supply remains high, and demand will decline as real - estate construction slows down [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the basis price data for multiple energy and chemical products on November 6 and 5, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - Russia's November oil exports from western ports are expected to slightly decrease due to increased refinery production but remain close to historical highs [14]. - ConocoPhillips raised its full - year production forecast after reporting higher - than - expected third - quarter earnings. The third - quarter production reached 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, an increase of 48,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day year - on - year. The company expects fourth - quarter production to be between 2.3 million and 2.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and raised its 2025 production forecast to 2.375 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, while lowering its 2025 operating cost forecast from $10.9 billion to $10.6 billion [14]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and para - xylene [16][17][18][22][24][26][29][30][32]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, para - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [33][38][39][42][43][44]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts for multiple products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [64][67][69][75]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The corn futures price showed a weak and volatile performance. New grain listings increased in the spot market, and the supply pressure in Jilin was transmitted to the ports, causing the prices at northern ports to decline under pressure. Prices in different regions of North China were differentiated, and prices in the sales areas were generally weak. The corn main 2601 contract rebounded under pressure, and there was a long - term bearish expectation [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans hit a 15 - month high on Thursday. After the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, there were expectations of increased demand. Domestic soybean meal followed the upward trend of the external market, but the market trading was sluggish. The strategy was to think in a slightly bullish and volatile way [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil rebounded after four consecutive days of decline. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association expected the 2025 palm oil production to increase by 10% year - on - year to 56 million tons. In August, Indonesia's inventory decreased by 1% to 2.54 million tons. Domestically, palm oil declined more than soybean oil and rapeseed oil. Short - term participation was recommended, waiting for long - position entry opportunities [1]. - Eggs: The egg futures fluctuated and adjusted on Thursday, with the main 2512 contract slightly down 0.25%. The spot prices were mostly stable, with individual fluctuations. The short - term supply pressure and supply improvement were in a game, and the rebound height was expected to be limited [1]. - Pigs: The main 2601 contract of live pigs closed with a long negative line on Thursday, and the futures price returned to the shock mode. The spot prices in production and sales areas were running strongly, but the price increases in Shandong and Hebei slowed down. Although it was expected that the prices of live pigs and pork would stop falling and rebound in the fourth quarter, the supply pressure still loomed over the market, and the futures price was expected to resume a slow decline after the rebound ended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - The European Central Bank kept the interest rate at 2% on Thursday, while the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate by 25 basis points earlier [3]. - In September 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 1,007,389 tons, an increase of 16.07% from the previous month and 7.97% from the same period last year [3]. - The estimated soybean production in the 2025/26 season in Brazil's Paraná state was 21.96 million tons, higher than the September forecast [3]. - China made its first soybean purchase from the US in this harvesting season [3]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: There were charts showing the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [5][6][10][14]. - **Contract Basis**: There were charts showing the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [13][16][17][22]. 3.3 Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0001262 [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of futures trading experience and multiple awards. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0013637 [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in economics. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0013544 [26].