1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The ratings for different agricultural products are as follows: Corn - "Oscillation" [1]; Soybean Meal - "Oscillation" [1]; Vegetable Oils - "Weak" [1]; Eggs - "Oscillation" [1]; Pigs - "Oscillation" [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products on May 14, 2025, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and influencing factors, and provides corresponding investment suggestions [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Corn**: Futures prices are under pressure and adjusting, with long - term moving averages providing support. Spot prices are strong, with the domestic average price at 2365 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. Northeast prices are stable, North China is generally stable, and the selling area prices are rising. The overall view is "oscillation" [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Spot market sentiment is divided, and prices are adjusting. The US soybean shows a de - stocking structure, but the export boost of US soybeans is expected to be limited. Domestic soybean meal prices follow the decline of rapeseed meal. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. The operation suggestion is to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread and have a long - side single - side thinking. The view is "oscillation" [1] - **Vegetable Oils**: BMD palm oil rises but is restricted by inventory growth. Malaysian palm oil exports, production, and inventory in April all increased. Domestic vegetable oil supply is gradually recovering, and the basis is expected to continue to decline. The strategy is to buy soybean oil and sell palm oil. The view is "weak" [1] - **Eggs**: Futures prices rebound in the morning and then fall, while spot prices rebound. However, considering the potential negative impact of the rainy season on demand and the increasing supply pressure, the probability of weak egg prices is high. The view is "oscillation" [1][2] - **Pigs**: The September contract shows an oscillating performance, and pig prices are running strongly. The national average ex - factory price of ternary pigs is 14.71 yuan/kg, basically flat from the previous day. The daily slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises decreased by 2.50%. Pig prices continue to consolidate at a low level. The view is "oscillation" [2] 3.2 Market Information - Trump's senior envoys will go to Istanbul on Thursday for potential talks on ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict [3] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a national on - site promotion meeting for increasing the per - unit yield of grain and oil, emphasizing technology - supported yield improvement, spring sowing, and drought and flood prevention [3] - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariff rate on US - imported goods from 34% to 10% and suspended the 24% additional tariff rate for 90 days [3] - As of May 11, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 season were 247 million tons, down from 303 million tons in the same period last year, while soybean imports were 1218 million tons, up from 1128 million tons last year [3] - On May 13, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 427,885 tons of imported soybeans, with an actual transaction volume of 151,064 tons and a transaction rate of 35.3% [4] - Malaysian palm oil exports, production, and inventory in April all increased compared to the previous month [4] 3.3 Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and basis charts for agricultural products such as corn, soybean, vegetable oils, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads and basis is provided in the given text [5][13]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅震荡，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3079 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 3 元/吨，跌幅为 0.1%，持仓减少 2.93 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | | | 钢材 | 格下跌 20 元/吨至 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3160 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.78 万吨。中 | 低位整理 | | | 美经贸谈判达成重要共识，对市场情绪形成一定提振。不过目前螺纹现货需求逐步有弱，钢厂出口接单难 | | | | 度也加大，市场供需基本面有所承压。预计短期螺纹盘面仍将低位整理运行。 | | | | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格有所下跌，收于 714.5 元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下跌 4 元/吨，跌幅为 0.56%，成交 43 万手，增仓 1 万手。 港口现货价格有所下跌，日照港 PB 粉 765 元/吨下 | | | 铁矿石 | 跌 4 元/吨，卡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 13, 2025, the 2507 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 0.69% to 63,220 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 64,600 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 62,950 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 65,990 yuan/ton, and that of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) also decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 71,135 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 250 tons to 36,444 tons [3]. - On the supply side, weekly production cuts continued, and the total supply in May was lower than expected. On the demand side, the consumption of lithium carbonate by ternary and lithium iron phosphate in May was expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The inventory turnover days of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials decreased continuously, and the ternary materials showed a slight upward trend. The cell end remained prosperous. In terms of inventory, there was a slight destocking during the week, but the overall inventory level remained high, especially the downstream inventory [3]. - In general, against the background of a lack of obvious increase in demand, the decline in lithium ore prices and the relatively small reduction in supply still led to a strong bearish sentiment in the market. Attention should be paid to the capital disturbance under short - term low valuations [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 63,220 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 63,200 yuan/ton, down 960 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 714 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 760 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1360 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li₂O: 6% - 7%) was 6300 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li₂O: 7% - 8%) was 7340 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) remained at 64,600 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) remained at 62,950 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 65,990 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 71,135 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 59,980 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.55 US dollars/kg, down 0.1 US dollars [5]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The price remained at 54,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Spread: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 1650 yuan/ton; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was 1390 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 4437.7 yuan/ton, down 685 yuan [5]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Most prices remained unchanged, with only slight decreases in some products such as ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type), ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type), ternary material 811 (power type), and cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) [5]. - Cells and batteries: The price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries increased by 0.2 yuan, while most other cell and battery prices remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. - Spread: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) - domestic, and basis from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32][33]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from September 12, 2024, to May 1, 2025 [35][36][38]. - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, and 外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [39][40]

点评 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 13 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2506 收于 38270 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.91%，持 仓减仓 17165 手至 52252 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 40500 元/吨，最 低交割品 N 型硅料价格 40500 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 2230 元/吨。 工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2506 收于 8230 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.6%，持仓减仓 9326 手至 16.2 手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9552 元/吨，较上一交易日持 稳。最低交割品#553 价格降至 8300 元/吨，现货升水扩至 35 元/吨。日 内市场传出晶硅六大联合收购产能并减产等消息，后续落实情况仍待证 实。行业将再度召开有关多晶硅自律限产和挺价相关会议，计划新增产能 释放节奏或面临延后。临近交割期，多晶硅仓单虚实比过高，短期给予多 头空间，工业硅基本面暂无改善，盘面未受晶硅带动、延续弱势。跟踪会 议结果和仓单动向，警惕交割月前异动风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡走高。宏观方面，美国劳工部公布，4 | | 月 CPI 同比增长 2.3%，略低于 | | | 预期和前值 2.4%；核心 CPI 同比增长 2.8%，持平于预期和前值 的关税政策普遍预计将推高通胀，但企业可能仍在消化大量库存，尚未开始全面提价， | | 2.8%。虽然特朗普政府 | | | 市场预计未来两三个月将逐步体现。同日，特朗普再次向美联储主席鲍威尔施压，要求 | | | | | 其降息。国内方面，中美达成关税协议后，海外投行纷纷上调中国经济增长预期。库存 | | | | 铜 | 方面，LME 铜库存下降 1100 吨至 189650 吨；comex | | 库存增加 1500 吨至 149788 吨。国 | | | 内需求方面，当前订单相对平稳，但旺季转淡季预期下，终端需求订单可能逐步放缓。 | | | | | 中美贸易谈判取得超预期进展，预计将继续推动风险偏好回升，对铜而言有望短线继续 | | | | | 得到 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea futures prices fluctuated widely on Tuesday, with the trend rising first and then falling. The closing price of the main 09 contract was 1,897 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.32%. The spot market prices in some regions continued to rise. The supply of urea decreased significantly, with the daily output on May 13th at 192,800 tons, a decrease of 9,800 tons from the previous day. The demand side followed up cautiously. The export news may suppress market sentiment, and the futures market sentiment may decline in the short term, but the subsequent uncertainty remains. The phased trend is mainly high-level consolidation [1]. - Soda ash futures prices opened higher and then weakened on Tuesday. The closing price of the main 09 contract was 1,291 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.84%. The spot market prices were mostly stable. The maintenance of soda ash plants continued, and the industry's operating rate dropped to 75.45% on May 13th. There are still maintenance plans in the middle and late May, and the supply of soda ash is expected to decline further. The demand remained weak and stable, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high. The futures market is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to unexpected maintenance or emergencies [1]. - Glass futures prices fluctuated downward on Tuesday. The closing price of the main 09 contract was 1,016 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.93%. The spot market prices continued to fall. The supply of glass has been temporarily stable in recent days, and the daily output of the industry remained at 155,800 tons. Glass factories mainly focused on shipping to avoid high inventory pressure. The demand side followed up cautiously. There are no obvious positive factors in the short - term glass market, and the futures price is expected to maintain a weak downward trend. Attention should be paid to the support level of the lower integer mark [1]. Group 3: Summary of Market Information Urea - On May 13th, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 7,049, an increase of 2,149 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecasts were 560 [4]. - On May 13th, the daily output of the urea industry was 192,800 tons, a decrease of 9,800 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 10,100 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate on that day was 83.59%, a 3.80 - percentage - point increase from 79.79% in the same period last year [4]. - On May 13th, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1,970 yuan/ton (unchanged); Henan 1,930 yuan/ton (unchanged); Hebei 1,950 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton); Anhui 1,940 yuan/ton (unchanged); Jiangsu 1,950 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton); Shanxi 1,890 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On May 13th, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 3,223, an increase of 117 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast volume was 1,808. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,370, a decrease of 10 from the previous trading day [6]. - On May 13th, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions were stable compared to the previous day. For example, in North China, the light soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, and the heavy soda ash was 1,500 yuan/ton [6]. - On May 13th, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 75.45%, down from 77.57% on the previous working day [7]. - On May 13th, the average price of the domestic float glass market was 1,267 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The daily output of the industry remained at 155,800 tons [7]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume, and position of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and the price trends of spot goods [10][11][13]

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 1 4 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 品种 | 今日价格 | 上日价格 | 变化 | 交割成本 | 今日基差 | 上日基差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卡粉 | 853 | 855 | -2.0 | 808 | 94 | 92 | 2 | | BRBF | 776 | 780 | -4.0 | 800 | 85 | 85 | 0 | | 纽曼粉 | 757 | 762 | -5.0 | 792 | 78 | 79 | -1 | | PB 粉 | 765 | 769 | -4.0 | 811 | 97 | 97 | 0 | | 麦克粉 | 745 | 747 | -2.0 | 803 | 89 | 87 | 2 | | 罗伊山粉 | 735 | 739 | -4.0 | 804 | 90 | 90 | 0 | | 金布巴粉61% | ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 0.33%，报收 66.41 美分/磅，CF509 上涨 1.41%，报收 13330 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 12943 手至 56.98 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14332 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 247 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14384 元/吨，较 | | | | 前一日上涨 197 元/吨。国际市场方面，美国 4 月 CPI 数据整体表现平稳，略低于 | | | | 预期，特朗普再催美联储降息，美元指数震荡走弱。另一方面，USDA5 月报公布， | | | | 报告环比调减 2025/26 年度全球棉花产量预期值，调增全球棉花消费量预期值， | | | | 2025/26 年度全球棉花供需宽松格局边际收窄。美棉方面，产量同比或基本持平， | | | | 出口量预计小幅调增，但期末库存预计也会增加，关注后续美棉播种及出口情况。 | | | | 国内 ...

05 月 13 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.17%，收于 3374.87 点，成交额 5066.09 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-0.13%，收于 10288.08 点，成交额 7849.16 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-0.27%，成交额 2634.63 亿元，其中开盘价 6219.45，收盘价 6151.01，当日最高价 6220.44，最低价 6141.68； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-0.21%，成交额 1942.52 亿元，其中开盘价 5838.03，收盘价 5781.67，当日最高价 5838.03，最低价 5772.07； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.15%，成交额 2675.86 亿元，其中开盘价 3915.59，收盘价 3896.26，当日最高价 3915.59，最低价 3890.69； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.2%，成交额 693.58 亿元，其中开盘价 2713.11，收盘价 2708.06，当日最高价 2713.11，最低价 2702.06。 图表 1：中证 1000、中证 500、沪深 300、上证 50 日内走势（%） 图表 2：四大指数个股涨跌幅比例（%）统计 -0.6 -0 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 光大期货能化商品日报 | | 周二，上期所燃料油主力合约 FU2507 收涨 1.52%，报 3006 元/ | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 吨；低硫燃料油主力合约 LU2507 收涨 1.78%，报 3541 元/吨。由 | | | | 于近期套利经济性不佳，预计 5 月欧洲市场运往新加坡的低硫套 | | | | 利货量将继续减少，但来自中东和南美的低硫燃料油调和组分数 | | | | 量增加正在增加新加坡地区库存。高硫方面，随着夏季公用事业 | | | 燃料油 | 发电需求回升，高硫燃料油市场需求支撑预期较强。预计短期在 | 震荡 | | | 油价暂时企稳的背景之下，FU 和 FU 绝对价格或将维持稳定，从 | | | | 相对强弱来看，尽管我们认为高硫基本面支撑更强，但近期低硫 | | | | 表现反而强于高硫，观察 LU-FU 价差走扩的持续性，可考虑后 | | | | 期高位介入价差做缩策略。 | | | 沥青 | 周二，上期所沥青主力合约 BU2506 收涨 0.69%，报 3485 ...