Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock index futures and government bond futures are both "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Views - For stock indices, the joint statement between China and the US, along with domestic policy measures such as the establishment of new financial asset investment companies, support for Huijin to increase holdings of stock index funds, and the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, are expected to help companies repair their balance sheets, promote the stable development of the real economy, and steadily increase stock market valuations. The internal policy drive is the main theme for the stock market in 2025. The revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit has increased by about 4% year-on-year, but the ROE is still in the stage of bottoming out and stabilizing [1] - For government bonds, the bond market has been supported by expectations of monetary policy easing and the weakening of the pricing fundamentals caused by tariffs. However, with the implementation of a series of incremental measures on May 7 and the joint statement between China and the US on May 12 to significantly reduce mutual tariffs, the two major positive factors have disappeared, and the bond market is expected to run in a bearish direction. The yield curve is expected to steepen again [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The joint statement between China and the US provides a good start for further trade negotiations. Domestic policies are the main driving force for the stock market in 2025. The revenue and profit of A-share listed companies are showing signs of improvement, and the market is expected to oscillate [1] - **Government Bond Futures**: The bond market is expected to be bearish due to the implementation of monetary policy measures and the reduction of tariffs. The yield curve is expected to steepen [1][2] 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 13, 2025, compared with May 12, IH rose 0.06%, IF fell 0.05%, IC fell 0.59%, and IM fell 0.67%. Among the stock indices, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.20%, the CSI 300 rose 0.15%, the CSI 500 fell 0.21%, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.27% [3] - **Government Bond Futures**: On May 13, 2025, the 30-year main contract rose 0.13%, the 10-year main contract rose 0.03%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.01%, and the 2-year main contract rose 0.03% [1] 3. Market News - On May 13, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson responded to questions about Sino-US economic and trade talks and the issue of special tariffs on fentanyl, stating that the responsibility for the fentanyl issue lies with the US, and the US's imposition of tariffs has damaged Sino-US cooperation and Chinese interests [5] 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trend charts of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trend charts of various stock index futures [6][7][8] - **Government Bond Futures**: The report shows the trend charts of government bond futures main contracts, the yield charts of government bond cash bonds, the basis charts, the inter - period spread charts, the inter - variety spread charts, and the capital interest rate charts [13][14][16] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes the charts of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, the forward exchange rates of the US dollar and the euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, and the exchange rates of the euro, pound, and yen against the US dollar [20][21][22]

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 1 3 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 761.0 | 761.0 | 0.0 | I05-I09 | 42.5 | 65.0 | -22.5 | | I09 | 718.5 | 696.0 | 22.5 | I09-I01 | 31.5 | 26.0 | 5.5 | | I01 | 687.0 | 670.0 | 17.0 | I01-I05 | -74.0 | -91.0 | 17.0 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 03 03 ...

1. Index Movements - On May 12, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.82% to close at 3369.24 points, with a trading volume of 522.081 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.72% to close at 10301.16 points, with a trading volume of 786.329 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.4%, with a trading volume of 264.308 billion yuan, opening at 6122.67, closing at 6167.46, with a daily high of 6167.46 and a low of 6110.02 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.26%, with a trading volume of 199.427 billion yuan, opening at 5751.44, closing at 5793.67, with a daily high of 5794.52 and a low of 5737.46 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 1.16%, with a trading volume of 296.123 billion yuan, opening at 3866.53, closing at 3890.61, with a daily high of 3890.73 and a low of 3859.03 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.69%, with a trading volume of 78.88 billion yuan, opening at 2688.75, closing at 2702.62, with a daily high of 2710.61 and a low of 2681.96 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 85.38 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and machinery significantly pulling the index up [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 71.95 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as national defense and military industry, electronics, and computer significantly pulling the index up [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 44.45 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as non - bank finance, power equipment, and electronics significantly pulling the index up [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 18.61 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as non - bank finance, food and beverage, and banks significantly pulling the index up, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector pulled the index down [3]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs Converted from Basis - IM00 average daily basis was - 21.01, IM01 was - 134.41, IM02 was - 324.53, and IM03 was - 465.93 [12]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 12.18, IC01 was - 112.94, IC02 was - 271.41, and IC03 was - 377.95 [12]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 4.8, IF01 was - 37.52, IF02 was - 102.79, and IF03 was - 139.79 [12]. - IH00 average daily basis was 0.39, IH01 was - 16.22, IH02 was - 49.71, and IH03 was - 53.42 [12]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Their Annualized Costs - Data on IM roll - over point differences and their annualized costs were presented, including values at different time points such as 09:45, 10:00, etc. [22]. - Similar data for IC, IF, and IH roll - over point differences and their annualized costs were also provided with values at multiple time points [23][25]

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 二、日度数据监测 | | | 锂电产业链产品价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 2025-05-12 | 2025-05-09 | 涨 跌 | | | 期 货 | 主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 64040 | 63020 | 1020 | | | | 连续合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 64160 | 63040 | 1120 | | | | 锂辉石精矿(6%,CIF中国) | 美元/吨 | 719 | 725 | - 6 | | | | 锂云母（Li2O:1.5%-2.0%） | 元/吨 | 770 | 770 | 0 | | | 锂 矿 | 锂云母（Li2O:2.0%-2.5%） | 元/吨 | 1375 | 1385 | -10 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:6%-7%） | 元/吨 | 6375 | 6400 | -25 | | | ...

一、研究观点 点评 12 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2506 收于 38450 元/吨，日内涨幅 2.49%，持 仓增仓 248 手至 67504 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 40500 元/吨，最低 交割品 N 型硅料价格 40500 元/吨，现货对主力升水收至 2050 元/吨。工 业硅震荡偏强，主力 2506 收于 8320 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.24%，持仓减仓 1216 手至 16.9 手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9552 元/吨，较上一交易日下 调 13 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 8300 元/吨，现货升水收至 20 元/ 吨。西南出现少量季节性增产，西北减产进度偏慢，行业库存仍在积累。 当前盘面位置低，企业套保难度高，工业硅仍延续易跌难涨状态。近期行 业将再度召开有关多晶硅自律限产和挺价相关会议，计划新增产能释放节 奏或面临延后。临近交割期，多晶硅仓单虚实比过高，给予多头博弈空 间，跟踪会议结果和仓单动向，警惕交割月前异动风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） | | | ...

农产品日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，玉米期价震荡下行，日线以小阴线收盘。现货主体卖粮意愿增加，市场情 绪有所改变。目前，国内玉米均价 2359 元/吨，价格上涨 7 元/吨。虽然今日期 | | | | 货市场表现一般，但东北玉米价格仍延续偏强运行的态势，贸易商根据库存情况 | | | | 操作思路不一，深加工玉米收购价格处于高位，对行情有一定的支撑。周末企业 | | | 玉米 | 经过下跌后，今日华北地区玉米价格整体维持稳定，目前贸易商的心态依然是下 | 震荡 | | | 跌不出货，因此价格对市场供应的调整比较有效。销区市场玉米价格继续上涨， | | | | 港口贸易商报价上调 10-20 元/吨。产区贸易商挺价心态浓厚，中储粮玉米拍卖 | | | | 多溢价成交，但今日期货表现偏弱，市场整体交易一般。技术上，玉米期价高位 | | | | 震荡，现货市场情绪有所分化，警惕期价展开调整。 | | | | 周一，CBOT 大豆收高，创下三个月新高，因贸易紧张局势缓解以及美国农业部 报告利多帮助大豆价格回 ...

| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.05%，报收 66.64 美分/磅，CF509 上涨 2.44%，报收 13240 保留对这些商品加征 10%的关税，另外还有 2 月和 3 月对美国部分商品加征的关 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 8708 手至 58.28 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14085 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 174 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14187 元/吨，较 | | | | 前一日上涨 65 元/吨。昨日中美公布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，美国将 4 月 2 日以 | | | | 来对中国加征的关税取消 91%，24%的关税在初始的 90 天内暂停实施，仅保留 10%。 | | | | 仅考虑 2 月以来情况，目前美国对中国仍有 2 月和 3 月各加征 10%的关税税率。 | 震荡上 | | | 中国对美国加征的关税也取消 91%，24%的关税在初始的 90 天内暂停实施，同时 | | | | | 行 | | | 税保留。综上，中美关税谈判已经取得突破性进展，成果超 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Bullish [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea futures prices were stable on Monday, with the main 09 contract closing at 1,897 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. Spot prices rose locally. Daily output increased to 202,600 tons. Demand was decent. Short - term market focus is on urea export details on Wednesday. If exports are confirmed to be liberalized, the market will be supported; otherwise, it will face pressure [1]. - Soda ash futures prices opened low and strengthened on Monday, with the main 09 contract closing at 1,318 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. Spot prices were mostly stable. Industry maintenance increased, and the operating rate dropped to 77.57%. Supply is expected to decline further. Demand was weak. The market has priced in the expected supply decline. Global macro - sentiment recovery may bring fluctuations, and prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [1]. - Glass futures prices strengthened on Monday, with the main 09 contract closing at 1,045 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. Spot prices were weak. Supply may increase. Demand was cautious. The glass industry's sentiment was still cautious. Without new positive factors, prices are expected to remain range - bound [1]. Group 3: Market Information Urea - On May 12, the futures warehouse receipt volume was 4,900, down 70 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 480 [4]. - On May 12, the daily output was 202,600 tons, up 90 tons from the previous day and 27,500 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 87.84%, up 6.99 percentage points from last year [4]. - On May 12, small - particle urea spot prices in Shandong were 1,970 yuan/ton (+50), in Henan 1,930 yuan/ton (+20), in Hebei 1,960 yuan/ton (+10), in Anhui 1,940 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Jiangsu 1,940 yuan/ton (+10), and in Shanxi 1,890 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On May 12, soda ash futures warehouse receipt quantity was 3,106, down 237 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 2,298. Glass futures warehouse receipt quantity was 2,380, up 115 from the previous day [6]. - On May 12, soda ash spot prices in North China were 1,400 yuan/ton (light) and 1,500 yuan/ton (heavy), in Central China 1,270 yuan/ton (light) and 1,400 yuan/ton (heavy), in East China 1,350 yuan/ton (light) and 1,450 yuan/ton (heavy), in South China 1,500 yuan/ton (light) and 1,550 yuan/ton (heavy), in Southwest China 1,400 yuan/ton (light) and 1,450 yuan/ton (heavy), and in Northwest China 1,100 yuan/ton (both light and heavy), all unchanged from the previous day [6]. - On May 12, the soda ash industry operating rate was 77.57%, down from 84.20% the previous day [7]. - On May 12, the average price of the float glass market was 1,270 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the daily output was 155,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the price trends of urea and soda ash spot, and the price spreads between related futures contracts [9][11][13]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报 | | 场预期，带动商品价格走强。锰矿方面，康密劳公布 2025 年 6 月对华加蓬块报报价 4.4 美元/吨度，环比 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 下跌 0.4 美元/吨度；联合矿业(CML)公布 2025 年 6 月对华报价出台，Mn>46% Fe<6% Si02<18%澳块报 4.7 | | | | 美元/吨度，环比上月下跌 0.4 美元/吨度，锰矿成本支撑有限。综合来看，短期宏观情绪叠加市场消息刺 | | | | 激带动下，预计短期锰硅期价上方仍有一定空间，但幅度不看太高，后续持续关注宏观及减产情况。 | | | | 硅铁：周一，硅铁期价震荡走强，主力合约报收 5636 元/吨，环比上涨 1.55%，主力合约持仓环比增加 21649 | | | | 手。72 号硅铁汇总价格约 5350-5550 元/吨，宁夏地区较前一日上涨 50 元/吨。昨日大宗商品多数走强， | | | | 黑色板块整体偏强，硅铁期价重心随之上移。宏观情绪刺激叠加主产区减产消息，带动硅铁价格上涨。昨 | | | 硅铁 | 日中美公布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，谈判效果超出市场预期， ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 隔夜 LME 铜冲高回落。宏观方面，据美国财政部的最新数据，美国 4 月预算盈余 2584 | | | | | | | | 亿美元，上年同期为盈余 2095 亿美元；4 月份美国海关关税收入达到 163 亿美元，创 | | | | | | | | 历史新高，同比增长 92 亿美元，增幅达 130%，该数据在一定程度上缓解了赤字压力， | | | | | | | | | | | 预算赤字没有进一步扩大。另外，中美谈判取得超预期进展，中美各取消了共计 91%的 | | | | | | | | | 加征关税，暂停实施 24%的反制关税。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 1025 吨至 190750 | | | | 吨。国内需求方面，当前订单相对平稳，但旺季转淡季预期下，终端需求订单可能逐步 | | | | | | | | | 放缓。中美贸易谈判取得超预期进展，预计将推动风险偏好继续回升，对铜而言有望短 ...