1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: This week, the caustic soda futures market continued to weaken. After the previous downstream concentrated stockpiling led to a surge in the futures market, the market faced downward pressure after the bullish trading. Next week, there are maintenance plans in the Northwest and Northeast regions, which are expected to cause a decline in the operating rate. The demand from the main alumina enterprises is good, but the alumina market remains in an oversupply situation, and its price has been showing a downward trend recently. In the short - term, it may continue to operate weakly. Most alumina plants have sufficient raw material inventory days. The non - alumina end has entered the peak season with improved demand, but it has limited support for the caustic soda price. Overall, there is a significant inventory build - up in the Shandong region, but the main buyers have a good willingness to purchase, so the spot price may stabilize. Therefore, the decline space of the futures price may be limited. Attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of alumina plants and device fluctuations [2]. - **PVC**: This week, the PVC futures market showed signs of stabilizing and stopping the decline, with the main 01 contract fluctuating within a narrow range. Next week, there are many maintenance enterprises, and the output is expected to decline. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream products has increased slightly, and some enterprises are preparing inventory for the National Day. Therefore, the overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend. On the cost side, the tight supply of raw material calcium carbide has gradually eased, and the price has a narrow downward trend. The ethylene price is weakly stable, and the cost side maintains bottom - support. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize in September. Attention should be paid to the performance of downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda Period and Spot**: The caustic soda futures price has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - environment changes, supply - demand expectations, and cost fluctuations. For example, the market worried about the weakening of the marginal supply after the return of supply, and the downstream demand was stable. The far - month supply - demand expectations were poor, and the futures price was looking for a bottom due to factors such as cost reduction, new caustic soda production capacity release, and insufficient medium - term alumina support [5]. - **Caustic Soda Profit**: The profit of the caustic soda industry is affected by factors such as raw material prices (including well - mine salt, liquid chlorine, etc.) and electricity prices. The sharp decline in the Shandong liquid chlorine price has impacted the enterprise profit, and the industry operating rate has further declined while the demand remains stable [5]. - **Caustic Soda Supply**: As of this Thursday, the weekly weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 86.73%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points from last week. The Shandong operating rate was 87.35%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points. In terms of inventory, compared with September 3rd, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in the expanded sample enterprises in East China increased by 1.09%, and the inventory in Shandong increased by 16.96% [24]. - **Caustic Soda Device Dynamics**: There are many caustic soda device maintenance situations in different regions. For example, Inner Mongolia Zhonggu Mining in the Northwest has been shut down since July 22, 2023, and is expected to resume on October 15; Inner Mongolia Yili in the Northwest has been shut down since May 5, 2024, and the restart time is undetermined [25]. - **Alumina Impact on Caustic Soda**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement), and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is around 10%. It is estimated that the annual alumina output in 2025 will be more than 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina projects are expected to increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [29]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: In July, the caustic soda export volume reached a high level, but the estimated export profit has weakened compared with the previous period [54]. 3.2 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **PVC Period and Spot**: The PVC futures price has fluctuated due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, macro - environment, and cost. For example, the lack of positive drivers in supply - demand, combined with a poor commodity atmosphere, has led to a continuous decline in the futures price [61]. - **PVC Profit**: The profit of the PVC industry has weakened month - on - month. The profit of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in East China has been affected by factors such as raw material prices and market supply - demand [67]. - **PVC Supply**: This week, the operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry has increased, and the maintenance loss this week has decreased month - on - month. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week was 79.39%, a 3.21 - percentage - point increase month - on - month; among them, the operating load rate of calcium carbide - based PVC powder was 80.29%, a 2.64 - percentage - point increase month - on - month; the operating load rate of ethylene - based PVC powder was 77.2%, a 4.61 - percentage - point increase month - on - month [83]. - **PVC Device Dynamics**: There are many PVC device maintenance and shutdown situations in different regions. For example, Julong Chemical in North China has shut down for maintenance since September 20, 2024, and the restart time is undetermined; Ningbo Zhenyang in East China is planned to start operation around September 20 after a temporary shutdown on August 15 [85]. - **PVC Downstream Demand**: The two main downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, are facing great pressure. In addition to demand issues, they also face industry competition, so the industry's contribution is difficult to improve. The real - estate industry still has a negative impact on PVC demand. According to Xuande sample data, the downstream orders are significantly lower than the same period in the past five years, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels, so the PVC downstream is expected to have no positive drivers [93]. - **PVC Inventory**: The PVC inventory continues to rise, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years compared with the same period [101]. - **PVC Outer Market and Export**: In July 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,500 tons, with an average import price of 712 US dollars per ton. The import volume increased by 2.10% month - on - month and 46.98% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume from January to July increased by 6.03% year - on - year. In July 2025, the PVC export volume was 330,600 tons, with an average export price of 606 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 26.17% month - on - month and 112.82% year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume from January to July increased by 56.91% year - on - year. The domestic trade price has adjusted, and the export windows to Southeast Asia and India have opened, with relatively good weekly export transactions [119].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental drive is needed to choose a direction. The bond market shows a differentiated trend with the long - end being weak and the short - end being strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation. Silver is in the $40 - 42 range for short - term trading [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as falling apparent demand and coking coal resumption. Iron ore prices are strong, while coking coal and coke prices are weak [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The prices of base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by different factors [2]. - The oil market is worried about marginal supply increments, dragging oil prices down. The chemical products market has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends for different varieties [2]. - Special commodities like soda ash, glass, and rubber have different market performances and trading suggestions [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has a rising price due to increasing production cut expectations, and lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: After a large increase, A - shares may enter a high - level shock. Sell near - month put options at support levels to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is at a critical point. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, buy cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money options. For silver, conduct short - term band trading in the $40 - 42 range and sell out - of - the - money options at high volatility [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are suppressed. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and consider an iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Sell coking coal 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170, and the iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy is favorable [2]. - **Coke**: Sell coke 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650, and the iron ore - coke long - short strategy is favorable [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. The main contract reference range is 79500 - 81500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Alloys**: Aluminum prices are affected by macro - factors and cost support, with different reference ranges for different contracts [2]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, boosting zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the tin price is in a high - level shock. The operating range is 285000 - 265000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about marginal supply increments drag oil prices down. Adopt a short - side strategy and pay attention to support levels [2]. - **Urea**: High short - term supply pressure drags down the price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand expectations in September are different, and the prices are in a shock range. For PTA, consider a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spread strategy [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester, ethylene glycol, etc. [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different grains and oils are affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply prospects, and cotton has low old - crop inventories, with different trading suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The livestock and poultry products market is affected by factors such as supply - demand contradictions and sales rhythms, with different price trends [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range shock. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by production lines and spot market sentiment. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment fades, and rubber prices are in a shock - down trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Due to increasing production cut expectations, the price is rising. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market maintains a tight balance. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and the main contract reference range is 70000 - 72000 yuan [2].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The fundamentals of natural rubber (NR) have changed little. There is still cost support from the upstream, while downstream players are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak season in the main producing areas and whether the La Nina phenomenon affects the supply. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider shorting at high prices; if the supply is restricted, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 11, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton (-1.00%) from the previous day. The basis of the Panorama Star was - 1005, down 75 (-8.06%). The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 15,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 82, down 5 (-0.51%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 35, up 10 (22.22%); the 5 - 9 spread was 1020, down 5 (-0.49%) [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, Thailand's rubber production was 421.60 (up 1.61% from the previous month), Indonesia's was 197.50 (up 12.09%), India's was 45.00 (down 2.17%), and China's was 101.30 (down 1.30). The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires was 73.46% (up 5.99 percentage points), and that of all - steel tires was 65.59% (up 5.81 percentage points). Domestic tire production in July was 94.364 million pieces (down 8.16%), and tire exports were 66.65 million pieces (up 10.51%). The total import of natural rubber in July was 474,800 tons (up 2.47%) [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory was 602,295 tons, down 3908 tons (-0.64%); the factory - warehouse futures inventory of NR on the SHFE was 46,569 tons, up 907 tons (1.99%) [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Currently, logs are in a volatile pattern. The spot market continues to weaken, and traders' enthusiasm for imports has declined. The arrival volume remains low, and supply in September is expected to remain at a low level. Inventory is low and has been decreasing for several consecutive weeks. Demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters but has not improved significantly. The current futures valuation is relatively low, and it is in a stage of bottom - seeking. In the context of the seasonal peak season expectation, the strategy is to go long at low prices [3]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 11, the 2511 log contract closed at 804.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 2 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The spot prices of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The new round of FOB prices has weakened to the range of 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [3]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The import theoretical cost was 797.91 yuan, down 13.83 yuan (-2%) from the previous day. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.118 [3]. - **Supply**: The port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 166.6 million cubic meters, down 6.7 million cubic meters (-3.87%) from the previous month. The number of ships arriving at the port was 44, down 3 (-6.38%). As of August 29, the total inventory of softwood logs in China was 294 million cubic meters, down 3 million cubic meters (-1.01%) [3]. - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume in China was 61,200 cubic meters, down 800 cubic meters (-1.29%) from August 29 [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, leading to an upward shift in the cost center of industrial silicon. Although the current production of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. In terms of supply and demand, both supply and demand increased in August, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will be reduced. The strategy is to go long at low prices, but attention should be paid to the increase in inventory and warehouse receipts [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract**: On September 11, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon was 9200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton (1.10%) from the previous day; the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 9500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton (1.06%); the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton (1.18%) [4]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 2509 - 2510 spread was - 8725, down 8555 (-5032.35%); the 2510 - 2511 spread was 0, up 25 (40.00%); the 2511 - 2512 spread remained unchanged at - 360 [4]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production was 385,700 tons, up 47,400 tons (14.01%) from the previous month; Xinjiang's production was 169,700 tons, up 19,400 tons (12.91%); Yunnan's production was 58,100 tons, up 17,000 tons (41.19%); Sichuan's production was 53,700 tons, up 5200 tons (10.72%). The national operating rate was 55.87%, up 3.26 percentage points (6.20%) [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly inventory in Xinjiang was 121,700 tons, up 2300 tons (1.93%); in Yunnan, it was 29,400 tons, up 800 tons (2.62%); in Sichuan, it remained unchanged at 22,800 tons. The weekly social inventory was 539,000 tons, up 2000 tons (0.37%) [4]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View In September, although there is some production reduction on the supply side, factory restarts will make up for the supply, resulting in an insignificant overall supply decrease. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule has increased slightly month - on - month, and there may be a slight inventory build - up in September. The spot price transmission mechanism is smooth. In the future, the futures market will focus more on policy expectations, and short - term price fluctuations may be significant, so caution is required [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 51,550 yuan/ton; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 48,500 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis (average price) was - 2160 yuan/ton, down 825 yuan/ton (-61.80%) [5]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract price was 53,710 yuan/ton, up 825 yuan/ton (1.56%) from the previous day. The current - month - to - first - continuous spread was 1735 yuan/ton, down 765 yuan/ton (-30.60%) [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: The silicon wafer production was 13.88 GW, up 0.10 GW (0.73%); the polysilicon production was 31,200 tons, up 1000 tons (3.31%) [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The polysilicon production was 131,700 tons, up 24,900 tons (23.31%); the polysilicon import volume was 1100 tons, up 300 tons (40.30%); the polysilicon export volume was 2200 tons, up 100 tons (5.96%); the net polysilicon export volume was 1100 tons, down 200 tons (-14.92%) [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory was 219,000 tons, up 8000 tons (3.79%); the silicon wafer inventory was 165,500 tons, down 3000 tons (-1.78%) [5]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The futures market lacks a trading logic and is in a narrow - range volatile pattern. The fundamental oversupply problem still exists. Although the inventory did not increase this week, it has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The previously reduced production capacity has resumed, and the weekly production has returned to the high level of 750,000 tons. In the medium - term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. After the traditional summer maintenance season in the soda ash industry, with high supply, the inventory will face further pressure without actual capacity exit or production reduction. Track policy implementation and soda ash plant production adjustment. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and short - selling can be considered on price rebounds [6]. - **Glass**: The spot market had good transactions this week, and the inventory decreased. At the beginning of the week, news about the conversion of coal - gas production lines to clean energy in the Shahe area triggered a rise in the futures market. The specific conversion time is undetermined, and the expected shutdown time is limited. There are still some restart and ignition plans in the future. Currently, the inventory of manufacturers in the Shahe area is gradually increasing, while the middle - stream inventory has not significantly decreased. In terms of industry supply and demand, although the deep - processing orders have improved seasonally, they are still weak, and the operating rate of low - emissivity (Low - E) glass remains low, showing no obvious peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. Eventually, capacity clearance is needed to solve the oversupply problem. Track the implementation of policies in various regions and the inventory - building performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. In the short - term, stay on the sidelines; in the medium - term, pay attention to the actual peak - season demand [6]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On September 12, the North China glass price was 1150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.86%); the East China price was 1220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.83%); the Central China price remained unchanged at 1110 yuan/ton; the South China price remained unchanged at 1240 yuan/ton [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The North China soda ash price remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton; the East China and Central China prices remained unchanged at 1250 yuan/ton; the Northwest price remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The soda ash operating rate was 86.22%, up 1.24 percentage points; the weekly soda ash production was 761,100 tons, up 9000 tons (1.25%); the daily melting volume of float glass was 160,200 tons, up 600 tons (0.38%); the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory was 61.583 million weight boxes, down 1.467 million weight boxes (-2.33%); the soda ash factory inventory was 1.7975 million tons, down 25,000 tons (-1.35%); the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory was 555,500 tons, up 15,000 tons (2.70%) [6]. - **Real - estate Data (Year - on - Year)**: The new construction area was - 0.09%, up 0.09 percentage points; the construction area was 0.05%, down 2.43 percentage points; the completion area was - 0.22%, down 0.03 percentage points; the sales area was - 6.55%, down 6.50 percentage points [6].

Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report [1] Core View The steel price is in a weak downward trend due to the decline in apparent demand and the increase in raw material supply pressure. Although there is an expectation of apparent demand recovery in the peak season, the steel price performance is suppressed before the demand picks up. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1] Summary of Key Points - **Price and Spread**: The prices of most steel products, including rebar and hot-rolled coils, showed a downward trend, with the exception of some regions where the prices remained unchanged. The spread between different contracts and regions also varied [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and slabs remained stable, while the cost of rebar from electric furnaces in Jiangsu increased slightly, and the cost of rebar from converters decreased. The profit of hot-rolled coils in different regions showed different trends, with the profit of rebar in South China increasing [1] - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 5.1%, while the output of the five major steel products decreased by 0.4%. The output of rebar decreased by 3.1%, mainly due to the decrease in electric furnace output, while the output of hot-rolled coils increased by 3.5% [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 0.9%, the inventory of rebar increased by 2.2%, and the inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased by 0.3% [1] - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.2%, the apparent demand of the five major steel products increased by 1.9%, the apparent demand of rebar decreased by 2.0%, and the apparent demand of hot-rolled coils increased by 6.8% [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report [3] Core View The iron ore market is currently in a balanced and tight pattern. The global shipment volume of iron ore has decreased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has also declined. The demand from steel mills has increased, and the port inventory is at a relatively low level year-on-year. It is recommended to buy the Iron Ore 2601 contract on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3] Summary of Key Points - **Price and Spread**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties decreased, and the basis of the 01 contract increased significantly. The spreads between different contracts also showed different trends [3] - **Supply**: The global shipment volume of iron ore decreased by 22.5% week-on-week, the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 3.1%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 1.2% [3] - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1%, the daily average port clearance volume decreased by 0.3%, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 1.5%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 4.2% [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 0.2%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.7%, and the available days of inventory for 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8% [3] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report [5] Core View The coke and coking coal markets are currently in a state of adjustment. The coke price has been lowered in the first round, and there is still room for further reduction. The coking coal price is expected to continue to decline in September. It is recommended to short the Coke 2601 contract and the Coking Coal 2601 contract on rallies and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke/coking coal [5] Summary of Key Points - **Price and Spread**: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts showed an upward trend, while the basis decreased. The spreads between different contracts also showed different trends [5] - **Supply**: The daily average output of all sample coking plants increased by 3.8%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.74%. The output of raw coal and clean coal from Fenwei sample coal mines increased [5] - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1%, and the daily average output of all sample coking plants increased, indicating an increase in demand for coke [5] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke increased slightly, with coking plants and steel mills accumulating inventory and ports reducing inventory. The inventory of coking coal decreased slightly, with coal mines, coking plants, and steel mills reducing inventory and washing plants, ports, and border crossings accumulating inventory [5] - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The supply - demand gap of coke changed from a deficit to a surplus, with an increase of 8.8 tons [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. After A - shares have accumulated significant gains, they may enter a high - level shock pattern, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental driver is needed to choose a direction. The long - end of Treasury bonds is weak while the short - end is strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as declining apparent demand and coking coal复产 [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again [2]. - There is a high supply pressure in the short - term for some energy and chemical products, and the market needs to pay attention to industrial demand rhythm [2]. - For agricultural products, there are different supply - demand situations, such as the abundant supply expectation for sugar and the low inventory of old - crop cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has a volume - increasing rise with the resonance of technology and finance. It is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: Uncertain about the direction, investors are advised to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money gold options. Silver should be traded in the range of 40 - 42 dollars and sell out - of - the money options at high volatility [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage as the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see due to factors suppressing steel prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170 [2]. - **Coke**: Short the coke 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Adopt a short - side thinking, with support levels for WTI at [61, 62], Brent at [64, 65], and SC at [465, 475] [2]. - **Urea**: Wait and see as the short - term high - supply pressure drags down the market [2]. - **PX**: Treat the short - term oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short - term and conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Follow the raw materials, with the processing fee oscillating in the range of 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand may both decline in September, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Look for EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: Hold short positions [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: Follow styrene and oil prices in the short - term [2]. - **Styrene**: Do low - buying operations on EB10 and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread at a low level [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates in the range of 11400 - 12500 [2]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **PP**: Stop profit on short positions at 6950 - 7000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Conduct range operations in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural - **Soybean Meal**: Operate in the range of 3050 - 3150 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Hog**: The market has limited supply - demand contradictions, and pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm [2]. - **Corn**: Short at high prices [2]. - **Oil**: The short - term P main contract may test the 9000 support [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the support at around 5500 [2]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see on a single - side basis [2]. - **Egg**: Control the position of previous short positions as the market rebounds [2]. - **Apple**: The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - **Jujube**: The main contract fluctuates around 11000 [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: Wait and see and pay attention to the spot market sentiment during the peak season [2]. - **Rubber**: Wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price may fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the silicon industry conference [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation rises and the price increases [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait and see mainly, with the main contract running around 7 - 7.2 million [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Macroscopically, a September interest rate cut is likely, but its impact on copper prices depends on the reason and background. The "stagflation-like" environment in the US restricts the scope of rate cuts. In the short term, rate cuts boost copper's financial attributes, raising the bottom price, but the upside is limited. - Fundamentally, it presents a state of "weak reality + stable expectations." The demand may weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but the supply - demand deterioration is limited. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to improve marginally, and the terminal demand is resilient. Copper prices are expected to at least remain volatile, and a new upward cycle requires the resonance of commodity and financial attributes. The reference range for the main contract is 79,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand." The short - term import of bauxite is tight, but new production capacity is continuously being put into operation. The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term. - For aluminum, macro factors support the price, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. However, the price increase is restricted by the 20,900 - 21,000 yuan/ton pressure range. It is expected to fluctuate around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the expectation of Fed rate cuts boosts the sentiment of commodities. The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is affected by tax policy adjustments, and the demand has slightly recovered but needs verification. The price of ADC12 is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The improvement of rate - cut expectations boosts zinc prices. The supply side is expected to be loose, and the demand side is about to enter the peak season. The low global inventory supports the price. In the short term, the price may be driven by macro factors, but the upside is limited, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The spot market transactions are differentiated. The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; otherwise, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the reference range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of the rate - cut rhythm remains unchanged. Industrially, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The profit of stainless steel is in deficit, and the demand is weak. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market shows a weak trend. The raw material prices are firm, and the supply pressure exists. The demand improvement is not obvious, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is optimistic as it enters the peak season. The overall inventory has decreased. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the main contract reference range of 70,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [15][16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose by 0.54% to 80,175 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 25 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread and other indicators also changed to varying degrees. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, the import volume was 296,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The inventory of various types also changed [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.53% to 20,860 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of alumina in different regions also changed. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 7.7382 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 373,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The inventory also showed corresponding changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose by 0.48% to 20,960 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference of various types increased. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy increased [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose by 0.41% to 22,180 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. In July, the import volume was 17,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35%. The inventory also changed [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose by 0.37% to 271,100 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The inventory of various types also changed [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased slightly. The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also changed. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production of Chinese refined nickel products increased by 1.26% month - on - month, and the import volume decreased by 8.46%. The inventory of various types also changed [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained unchanged. The raw material prices remained stable. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 3.83% month - on - month, and the net export volume increased by 22.37%. The inventory decreased [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The prices of lithium - related raw materials also decreased. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production increased by 4.55% month - on - month, and the demand increased by 8.25%. The inventory decreased [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Rubber Industry - The fundamentals of natural rubber (NR) have changed little. There is still cost support from the upstream, while downstream players are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and whether the La Nina phenomenon affects the supply. If raw material supply is smooth, consider shorting at high levels; if not, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. Log Industry - Currently, the log market shows a volatile pattern. The spot market continues to weaken, and traders' import enthusiasm has declined. The arrival volume remains low, and it is expected that the supply in September will continue to be low. The inventory is low and has been decreasing for several weeks. Demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters but has not improved significantly. As it gradually enters the seasonal peak season, observe whether the shipment volume improves. The current valuation of the futures market is relatively low, and it is in a stage of exploring the bottom. In the context of the peak - season expectation game, the strategy suggests buying on dips [3]. Industrial Silicon Industry - From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, so the cost center of industrial silicon will rise in the future. Although the current output of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. In terms of supply and demand, both supply and demand increased in August, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long term, the supply pressure will be reduced. Therefore, the strategy suggests buying on dips, but also note that while the output increases, the inventory and warehouse receipts are also increasing, and supply pressure is beginning to show. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon Industry - In September, although there is production reduction on the supply side, there are also factories resuming production to make up for the supply, so the overall reduction in supply is not obvious. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule has increased slightly month - on - month, and there may be a slight inventory accumulation pattern in September. The downstream has replenished inventory significantly since late August, and the spot price transmission mechanism is smooth. In the future, the futures market trades more on policy expectations rather than fundamentals, and short - term price fluctuations are likely to occur, so caution is needed [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Soda Ash - The futures market lacks a main trading logic and shows a narrow - range volatile pattern. The fundamental oversupply problem still exists. Although the inventory did not accumulate this week, it has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The previously reduced - production devices have resumed, and the weekly output has returned to a high level of 750,000 tons. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. After the traditional summer maintenance season in the soda ash industry ends, with high supply, if there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. The overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [6]. Glass - The spot market had good transactions this week, and the inventory decreased. At the beginning of the week, news about the conversion of coal - fired gas production lines to clean energy in the Shahe area triggered a rise in the futures market, but the specific conversion time is undetermined, and the expected shutdown time is limited. There are still some restart and ignition plans in the future. Currently, the factory inventory in the Shahe area is gradually increasing, and the middle - stream inventory has not been significantly reduced. In terms of industry supply and demand, although the deep - processing orders have improved seasonally, they are still weak, and the low - emissivity (Low - E) glass production start - up rate remains low, showing no obvious peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, at the bottom of the real - estate cycle, the completion volume is shrinking, and the industry ultimately needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. Short - term, it is advisable to wait and see; in the medium - term, pay attention to the actual peak - season demand [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 1.00% to 14,900 yuan/ton on September 11 compared to September 10. The basis of some varieties changed, such as the basis of a certain variety decreasing by 8.06% [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 0.51%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 22.22%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.49% [1]. Fundamentals - In July, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India changed by 1.61%, 12.09%, and - 2.17% respectively, while China's production decreased by 1.30. The weekly start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in July decreased by 8.16%, while the tire export volume increased by 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber in July increased by 2.47% [1]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 1.99%. The出库 rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse and general - trade warehouse increased [1]. Log Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The 2511 log contract closed at 804.5 yuan/cubic meter on September 11, down 2 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The prices of major benchmark delivery - grade spot logs remained unchanged. The new round of FOB quotes has loosened to the range of 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [3]. Supply - The port shipping volume decreased by 3.87%, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased. The inventory in major ports decreased, with the national coniferous log inventory at 2.94 million cubic meters as of September 5 [3]. Demand - The daily average shipment volume decreased slightly last week but remained above 60,000 cubic meters, with the daily average shipment volume at 61,200 cubic meters as of September 5 [3]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract - The prices of various types of industrial silicon, such as East China oxygen - passing S15530, East China SI4210, and Xinjiang 99 silicon, increased, and the basis of some varieties also increased [4]. Monthly Spreads - The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the 2509 - 2510 spread decreasing by 5032.35% [4]. Fundamental Data - The national production of industrial silicon increased by 14.01%, and the production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan also increased. The start - up rates in different regions increased. The production of organic silicon DMC increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The export volume of industrial silicon increased by 8.32%. The inventory in different regions and the social inventory increased slightly [4]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon materials and silicon wafers remained mostly unchanged, but the N - type material basis decreased by 61.80% [5]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract price increased by 1.56%, and the spreads between different contracts changed, such as the current - month - to - first - continuous spread decreasing by 30.60% [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers also changed, with the net export volume of polysilicon decreasing and that of silicon wafers increasing [5]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.79%, while the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 1.78%. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 4.34% [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of glass in different regions and different contracts changed, with the 05 basis of glass decreasing by 10.92% [6]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of soda ash in different regions and different contracts increased slightly, while the 05 basis of soda ash decreased by 11.32% [6]. Supply - The soda ash start - up rate increased by 1.24%, the weekly production of soda ash increased by 1.25%, the float - glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [6]. Inventory - The glass inventory decreased by 2.33%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 1.35%, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 2.70% [6]. Real - Estate Data - The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate were 0.09%, - 2.43%, - 0.03%, and - 6.50% respectively [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the reports. The reports mainly provide daily data on various futures, including price differences, ratios, and related economic indicators. Summary by Category 1. Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Spot - Futures Spreads**: The report shows the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of spot - futures spreads for different stock index futures such as IC, IF, IH, and IM. For example, the IC spot - futures spread is 70.60 with a 93.80% historical 1 - year quantile [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: It also provides inter - delivery spreads (e.g., next month - current month, far month - next month) and their changes and quantiles. For instance, the inter - delivery spread of next month - current month for some contracts shows specific values and percentage changes [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Cross - variety ratios like IC/IF, IF/IH, etc., are presented with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles. For example, IC/IF is 1.5617 with a 98.30% historical 1 - year quantile [1]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis**: The basis for different treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL) is reported, including the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and historical quantiles since listing. For example, the TS basis is 1.5771 with a 24.30% historical quantile [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Inter - delivery spreads for different treasury bond futures are provided, along with their changes and historical quantiles. For instance, the inter - delivery spread of next quarter - current quarter for T futures has a specific value and change [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF, TF - T) are given with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. 3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures Closing Prices**: The report presents the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures (AU2510, COMEX gold, etc.) on September 11 and 10, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the AU2510 contract closed at 830.78 yuan/g on September 11, down 0.32% from the previous day [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of precious metals (London gold, London silver, etc.) are reported, including their price changes and percentage changes. For instance, London gold was at 3633.54 on September 11, down 0.17% from the previous day [3]. - **Basis**: The basis between different precious metals' spot and futures prices is provided, along with their historical 1 - year quantiles. For example, the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold futures is - 4.69 with a 7.20% historical 1 - year quantile [3]. - **Price Ratios**: Price ratios such as COMEX gold/silver and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver are given, along with their changes and percentage changes [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Interest rates (10 - year US Treasury yield, 2 - year US Treasury yield, etc.) and exchange rates (US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate) are reported, including their changes and percentage changes [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventory and position data for precious metals (Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory, COMEX gold inventory, etc.) are presented, along with their changes and percentage changes [3]. 4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes for shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different shipping companies (MAERSK, CMA, etc.) are provided, including their price changes and percentage changes. For example, MAERSK's price is 1705 dollars/FEU on September 12, down 4.54% from the previous day [4]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Shipping indexes such as SCFIS (European route), SCFI composite index, etc., are reported, including their changes and percentage changes. For instance, the SCFIS (European route) decreased by 11.68% from September 1 to September 8 [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of container shipping contracts (EC2602, EC2510 (main contract), etc.) and the basis of the main contract are presented, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the price of the EC2510 main contract decreased by 5.02% from September 10 to September 11 [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Fundamental data such as global container shipping capacity supply, port punctuality rate, and overseas economic indicators (eurozone composite PMI, etc.) are reported, including their changes and percentage changes [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Macroscopically, a September interest rate cut is likely, but its impact on copper prices depends on the reason and background. The "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the rate - cut space. In the short - term, the rate - cut expectation boosts the financial attribute of copper, but the upside is limited. - Fundamentally, it shows a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". The copper demand may weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but the supply elasticity is insufficient. With the arrival of the peak season, the demand will improve marginally. Without a clear US recession expectation, copper prices will at least remain volatile, and a new upward cycle requires the resonance of commodity and financial attributes. The main contract is expected to range from 79,500 to 81,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". Although the short - term import of bauxite is tight, the new production capacity is continuously put into operation, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The price is under pressure, but the downside is limited as it approaches the cost zone. It is expected to oscillate between 2,900 and 3,200 yuan/ton. - For aluminum, the macro - environment provides support, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. However, the price increase is restricted by the 20,900 - 21,000 yuan/ton range. It is expected to oscillate around the actual peak - season demand, with the main contract ranging from 20,600 to 21,200 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the Fed's rate - cut expectation boosts the sentiment of bulk commodities. The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is affected by uncertain tax policies, and the demand is slightly warming but needs verification. The inventory is still accumulating, and the import resources are limited. The ADC12 price is expected to remain high and volatile, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 to 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The US inflation data improves the rate - cut expectation and boosts zinc prices. The supply side is in an upward cycle of production resumption, and the smelting profit is repaired. The demand side is about to enter the peak season, and the global inventory is low. In the short - term, zinc prices may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upside is limited. It is expected to oscillate, with the main contract ranging from 21,500 to 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees are low. The actual ore output from Myanmar is expected to be postponed to the fourth quarter. The demand is weak, and the traditional consumption decline cannot be offset by the growth in emerging fields. The spot market is divided. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with the operating range from 265,000 to 285,000 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - The macro - environment is generally stable, and the cost provides some support. There is no obvious short - term supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking pace slows down. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside. The price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract ranging from 118,000 to 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment is positive, with the Fed's rate - cut expectation rising and domestic policies being supportive. The raw material prices are firm, but the stainless - steel profit is in deficit, which will suppress nickel - iron. The supply is under pressure as the September production schedule is expected to increase. The demand improvement has not been significantly reflected, and the inventory reduction is slow. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract ranging from 12,600 to 13,400 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market oscillates and strengthens in the afternoon with the improvement of the macro - sentiment. The fundamentals are in a tight balance. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. The whole - chain de - stocking is accelerating. The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with the main contract ranging from 70,000 to 72,000 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 80,175 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.54%. The spot premium and other price - related indicators also changed. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.80% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The import volume in July decreased by 1.20%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 3.14% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 20,860 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.53%. The alumina prices in different regions showed slight declines [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The electrolytic aluminum production increased by 0.30%. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.16% week - on - week [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 20,960 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.48%. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions increased [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 1.60%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 1.88%. The regenerative aluminum alloy inventory increased by 33.83% week - on - week [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,180 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.41%. The import loss increased [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The import volume in July decreased by 50.35%. The galvanizing start - up rate increased by 5.98% week - on - week [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 271,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.37%. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 55.74% [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 680 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import decreased by 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production increased by 15.42%. The SHEF inventory increased by 2.74% week - on - week [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,450 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.08%. The production cost of different nickel - related products changed [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The Chinese refined nickel product output increased by 1.26% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.87% week - on - week [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The 304/2B stainless - steel price remained stable. The futures - spot price difference increased by 11.11% [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production decreased by 3.83% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 2.10% week - on - week [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased to 72,850 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.82%. The lithium - related raw material prices also declined [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 440 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The demand increased by 8.25%. The total inventory decreased by 3.75% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - The current core contradiction in the polyolefin market is not prominent. In the PE market, the current maintenance remains high, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively limited. In the PP market, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases. However, after the new device is put into production in early September, the pressure in East China increases, driving the basis to weaken rapidly, and market transactions are dull [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to be more relaxed than expected due to the maintenance of a reforming device in East China, and the weakening demand support will limit the price drive. For styrene, the overall start - up of downstream 3S has rebounded this week, and the port inventory has fallen from a high level. There is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future, but the rebound space is limited due to high port inventory [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda market has stabilized slightly in the past two days, and the supply is expected to decline next week. The demand is expected to weaken in the future, but the inventory pressure of caustic soda enterprises is not large, and the spot price may remain firm in the short term. The PVC market has stopped falling and stabilized recently, but the overall pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in demand [30]. Polyester Industry - PX supply is gradually increasing to a relatively high level, and the supply - demand expectation in September is relatively loose, but the medium - term supply - demand is still expected to be tight. PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol supply is strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - fiber supply - demand is still weak in the short term. Bottle - chip supply - demand may be balanced in September, and inventory may increase slightly [33]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fell due to concerns about supply surplus overwhelming the premium brought by geopolitical risks. In the short term, oil prices are likely to run weakly, and it is recommended to take a short - side approach [38]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly due to the dual pressure of increased supply and weak demand. The domestic urea daily output has rebounded, while agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is limited [42]. Methanol Industry - The methanol supply is expected to increase in September as domestic maintenance devices return and foreign start - up reaches a seasonal high. The demand from traditional downstream industries remains weak, and the port inventory has increased significantly, with weak basis performance and prominent pressure [44]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all decreased, with decreases of 0.24%, 0.43%, 0.13%, and 0.71% respectively. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased by 28.00% and 42.55% respectively [23]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: PE and PP inventories showed different trends last week, with PE de - stocking and PP stocking. The current maintenance of PE remains high, and short - term supply pressure is limited. For PP, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases, but new devices will increase pressure after being put into production in September [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR China pure benzene, and styrene in East China all changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 1.7%, and the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.3% [26]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.4%, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 10.2%. The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to decrease, and the demand support is weakening. For styrene, there is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% remained unchanged, the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 0.2%, and the price of East China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged [31]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 7.8%, and the total social inventory of PVC increased by 2.1%. The supply of caustic soda is expected to decline next week, and the demand for PVC remains weak [31]. Polyester Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and various polyester products changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 0.5%, and the price of FDY150/96 decreased by 0.5% [34]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The supply of PX is gradually increasing, and the supply - demand in September is expected to be relatively loose. The supply - demand of PTA in September is expected to be tight, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a short - term supply - demand balance but may face oversupply in the fourth quarter [34]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Change**: On September 12th compared with September 11th, the prices of Brent, WTI, and various refined oil products decreased. For example, the price of Brent decreased by 1.66%, and the price of NYM RBOB decreased by 0.51% [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of crude oil is expected to be in a record - high surplus next year, and the increase in Saudi Arabia's export quota to China confirms the supply pressure. The increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has raised concerns about economic and demand slowdown [38]. Urea Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing price of the methanol main contract decreased by 0.83%, and the prices of various urea futures contracts and spreads also changed [42]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily output has rebounded to 18.44 tons, and the start - up rate has increased month - on - month. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial rigid - demand procurement is limited. Although export containerization provides some support, the decline in Indian consumption weakens the positive effect [42]. Methanol Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased by 0.83% and 2.30% respectively, and the MA91 spread decreased by 22.54% [44]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, and the port inventory increased by 8.59%. The domestic maintenance devices are expected to return in early September, and the foreign start - up has reached a seasonal high, while the traditional downstream demand remains weak [44].