Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of natural rubber (NR) have not changed significantly. There is still cost support from the upstream, while downstream players are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak season in the main production areas and whether the La Nina phenomenon affects the supply. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling at high levels; if the supply is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 11, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton or 1.00% from the previous day. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 15,000 yuan/ton. The basis of some varieties showed significant changes, such as the basis of Panjingxing, which decreased by 8.06% [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 82 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, up 22.22% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India showed different trends, with Thailand's production increasing by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, and India's decreasing by 2.17%. China's production decreased by 1.30%. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in July decreased by 8.16%, while the tire export volume increased by 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber in July increased by 2.47% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 1.99%. The出库率 of warehouses increased due to downstream holiday stocking, and there is still an expectation of further inventory reduction [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Currently, logs are in a volatile pattern. The spot market continues to weaken, and the enthusiasm of traders for imports has declined. The arrival volume remains low, and it is expected that the supply in September will continue to be at a low level. The inventory is low and has been decreasing for several consecutive weeks. The demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters but has not shown an obvious improvement trend. After entering the seasonal peak season, observe whether the shipment volume improves significantly. Currently, the valuation of the futures market is relatively low, and it is in a stage of volatile bottom - seeking. It is recommended to go long at low levels [3]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 11, the 2511 log contract closed at 804.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 2 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The new round of FOB quotes has loosened to the range of 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [3]. - **Supply**: Last week, the total arrival volume at 12 ports was about 170,000 cubic meters, a record low for the year. This week, 11 ships of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 12 ports in China, an increase of 6 ships from last week, and the total arrival volume is about 402,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 136% [3]. - **Demand**: The shipment volume last week decreased slightly but remained above 60,000 cubic meters. As of September 5, the average daily shipment volume of logs was 61,200 cubic meters [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, which will lift the cost center of industrial silicon. Although the current production of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. From the supply - demand side, both supply and demand increased in August, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will be reduced. It is recommended to go long at low levels, but also pay attention to the inventory and warehouse receipts while production increases. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 11, the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 9,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton or 1.06% from the previous day. The basis of some varieties showed significant changes, such as the basis of SI4210, which increased by 38.46% [4]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5032.35% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The national industrial silicon production in the current period was 385,700 tons, an increase of 14.01% from the previous period. The production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan all increased. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 11.66%, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 1.60%. The industrial silicon export volume increased by 8.32% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory increased by 0.37%, and the order - form inventory increased by 0.10% [4]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint In September, although there is some production reduction on the supply side, there are also factories resuming production to make up for the supply, so the overall supply reduction is not obvious. The silicon wafer production plan has increased slightly month - on - month, and the supply - demand situation in September may show a slight inventory accumulation pattern. Since late August, downstream players have carried out obvious inventory replenishment, and the price increase of polysilicon has been gradually accepted by the downstream, with a smooth spot price transmission mechanism. In the follow - up, the futures market pays less attention to the fundamentals and more to policy expectations. Short - term price fluctuations may be significant, so caution is required [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 11, the average price of N - type re - feedstock remained unchanged at 51,550 yuan/ton. The average price of N - type granular silicon also remained unchanged at 48,500 yuan/ton. The basis of N - type materials decreased by 61.80% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract price was 53,710 yuan/ton, up 1.56% from the previous day. The spreads between different contracts showed different degrees of change [5]. - **Fundamentals (Weekly)**: The silicon wafer production was 13.88 GW, an increase of 0.73% from the previous week; the polysilicon production was 31,200 tons, an increase of 3.31% [5]. - **Fundamentals (Monthly)**: The polysilicon production was 131,700 tons, an increase of 23.31% from the previous month. The polysilicon import volume increased by 40.30%, and the export volume increased by 5.96% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.79%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 1.78% [5]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint - **Soda Ash**: The futures market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range volatile pattern. The fundamental oversupply problem still exists. Although the inventory did not accumulate this week, it has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The previously reduced production capacity has resumed, and the weekly production has returned to a high level of 750,000 tons. In the medium - term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. After the traditional summer maintenance season in the soda ash industry, with high supply, if there is no actual capacity exit or production reduction in the future, the inventory will be further pressured. Follow the implementation of policies and the production adjustment of soda ash plants. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels when the price rebounds [6]. - **Glass**: The spot market had good trading this week, and the inventory decreased. At the beginning of the week, the news of the conversion of coal - gas production lines to clean energy in the Shahe area triggered a rise in the futures market. The specific conversion time is to be determined, and the expected shutdown time is limited. There are still some plans for production resumption and ignition in the future. Currently, the inventory of manufacturers in the Shahe area is gradually increasing, while the inventory in the middle reaches has not significantly decreased. In terms of industry supply - demand, the deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak, and the operating rate of low - emissivity glass has remained low, showing no obvious peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. Eventually, the industry needs to clear excess capacity. Follow the implementation of policies in different regions and the inventory replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches approaching the peak season. Short - term: stay on the sidelines; medium - term: pay attention to the actual peak - season demand [6]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On September 12, the price of glass 2505 was 1282 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous day; the price of glass 2509 was 686 yuan/ton, down 0.60% [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The price of soda ash 2505 was 1359 yuan/ton, up 0.44% from the previous day; the price of soda ash 2509 was 1168 yuan/ton, up 0.44% [6]. - **Supply**: The soda ash operating rate was 86.22%, down 1.24% from the previous day. The weekly soda ash production was 761,100 tons, up 1.25%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 160,200 tons, up 0.38% [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased by 2.33%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 1.35%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 2.70% [6]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 0.09%, up 0.09% from the previous period; the growth rate of construction area was 0.05%, down 2.43% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant investment ratings for the entire industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The overall market shows a complex and diverse situation across different sectors. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures rose with strong performance from the technology and finance sectors, while the bond market was affected by factors such as capital supply and demand, and the performance of different - term bonds was divided. In the commodity market, the performance of various commodities was also different. For example, copper prices were affected by macro - economic factors and supply - demand fundamentals; the shipping index futures continued to decline due to weakening spot prices. In the agricultural product market, factors such as supply expectations and demand changes influenced the prices of various products. In the energy and chemical market, factors like supply and demand forecasts and macro - economic conditions affected the price trends of products such as crude oil and urea. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Thursday, A - share major indexes opened lower and then rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.65%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.36%. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose with the index, and the basis of the September contracts was quickly repaired. The domestic policy promotes the opening of the digital trade field, and overseas, the Bank of Japan plans to reduce its ETF holdings. The A - share market may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and it is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed with a mixed performance, with long - term bonds weak and short - term bonds strong. The central bank's net investment improved the capital supply, but the impact of the increase in bond fund redemption fees and the strong stock market still suppressed long - term bonds. It is recommended that investors wait and see, pay attention to the capital supply and the release of economic data [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged, and the US employment market weakened. Gold showed a sideways consolidation trend, while silver strengthened. The Fed's expected policy path and geopolitical risks affected the price of precious metals. It is recommended to buy gold at low prices cautiously or sell out - of - the - money gold options. For silver, it is recommended to conduct band operations in the 40 - 42 US dollars range and sell out - of - the - money options at high volatility [7][9][10]. Container Shipping Futures (EC) - **Spot and Index**: The spot quotes of major shipping companies continued to decline slowly. As of September 8, the SCFIS European line index decreased by 11.68% month - on - month. - **Fundamentals and Logic**: The global container shipping capacity increased, and the spot price decline put downward pressure on the futures. It is expected that the spot price will continue to decline slowly, and the futures price may also decline. It is recommended to short the October contract unilaterally or conduct a spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US core CPI met expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts increased. The spot price of copper rose slightly, and the consumption recovery was slow. The supply of copper concentrate was tight, and the production of refined copper was expected to decline. The copper price was affected by macro - economic factors and the supply - demand relationship. It is expected to be in a sideways - to - strong trend, with the main contract reference range of 79,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton [14][15][17]. - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased slightly, and the market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The futures price was expected to be in a sideways - to - weak trend, with the main contract reference range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to policy changes in Guinea and cost - profit changes [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price of aluminum rose, and the supply was at a high level while the demand showed marginal improvement. The aluminum price was supported by the macro - environment and the expectation of the peak season, but there was still pressure in the 20,900 - 21,000 yuan/ton range. It is expected to fluctuate around the actual demand in the peak season, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton [21][23]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of aluminum alloy rose slightly. The cost was strongly supported, but the demand recovery was limited, and the inventory was in the process of accumulation. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [24][26][27]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc rose, and the supply was expected to be loose. The demand was approaching the peak season, and the inventory was at a relatively low level. The zinc price was expected to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [27][30]. - **Tin**: The spot price of tin rose, and the supply was tight. The demand was weak, and the market was in a tight - balance pattern of "weak supply and weak demand". It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate at a high level, with the reference range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [31][32][33]. - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel was stable, and the supply was at a high level. The demand was relatively stable, and the inventory was at a high level overseas and increased slightly domestically. It is expected that the nickel price will adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel was stable, and the cost was supported, but the demand was weak. The supply was expected to increase, and the inventory was slowly decreasing. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [37][38][39]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, and the supply increased slightly. The demand was optimistic, and the inventory decreased. The lithium - carbonate price was expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the main contract reference range of 70,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [40][42][43]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The spot price of steel was weak, and the cost of iron ore increased while the cost of coking coal decreased. The supply was at a high level, and the demand decreased seasonally. The inventory increased, and the steel price was expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [44][45][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased slightly, and the futures price was in a downward trend. The global shipment volume decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. The demand from steel mills increased, and the iron - ore price was expected to be in a balanced - to - tight pattern, with the reference range of 780 - 830 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices and conduct a spread arbitrage of long iron ore and short coking coal [48][49]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal was in a weak - sideways trend, and the futures price rebounded. The supply of coking coal increased, and the demand from steel mills and coking plants increased. The inventory decreased, and the coking - coal price was expected to decline in September. It is recommended to short the 2601 contract at high prices and conduct a spread arbitrage of long iron ore and short coking coal [50][52][53]. - **Coke**: The first - round price cut of coke was implemented, and the futures price rebounded. The supply of coke increased, and the demand was supported. The inventory increased, and the coke price was expected to have 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. It is recommended to short the 2601 contract at high prices and conduct a spread arbitrage of long iron ore and short coke [54][55][56]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The domestic spot price of soybean meal fluctuated, and the trading volume decreased. The market expected the US soybean yield to be high, but the domestic cost was supported. The price of meal products was expected to have a limited downward space, and the cost support was strong in the fourth quarter [57][58][59]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated, and the breeding profit decreased. The supply of live pigs was expected to increase, and the demand recovery was uncertain. The price of live pigs was expected to have limited downward space in the short term, but there was still a risk of decline in the future [60][61]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn fluctuated, and the inventory decreased. The new - season corn was about to be listed, and the supply was expected to increase. The demand was weak, and the corn price was expected to be weak in the medium term. It is recommended to be cautious when shorting [62][63]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price was under pressure, and the domestic sugar price was in a sideways trend. The supply of Brazilian sugar was large, and the sugar - alcohol ratio was expected to have limited upward space. The domestic demand was mainly for Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, and the sugar price was expected to be in a sideways trend. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view [65]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton was in a bottom - grinding stage, and the domestic cotton demand had no obvious increase. The new - cotton purchase drive was not clear, and the domestic cotton price was expected to fluctuate in the short term and be under pressure after the new - cotton listing [66]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs rebounded slightly, but the supply pressure was still large. The inventory of laying hens was at a high level, and the demand might weaken in the second half of the week. The egg price was expected to have a limited upward space in early September and maintain a bearish view [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price of palm oil was affected by the decline in production data and the weak export. The price of soybean oil was affected by the increase in the CBOT soybean oil price and the sufficient supply. The price of palm oil was expected to test the support level, and the price of soybean oil was expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [70][71]. - **Jujubes**: The spot price of jujubes was stable, and the market supply was small. The jujube production was expected to decrease, but the double - festival stocking effect was not obvious. The jujube price was expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the weather and festival effects [72][73]. - **Apples**: The early - Fuji apples were on the market, and the market was differentiated. The price of high - quality apples was stable at a high level, while the price of ordinary apples was determined by quality. The red - general apples in Shandong were still coloring, and the large - scale trading was yet to come [74][75]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The international oil price declined due to concerns about long - term supply surplus and weak US demand. The supply of Russian crude oil increased, and the IEA predicted a large supply surplus in 2026. The oil price was expected to be weak in the short term. It is recommended to take a bearish view unilaterally and wait for opportunities to expand options volatility [75][76][78]. - **Urea**: The domestic spot price of urea decreased, and the supply increased while the demand was in the off - season. The inventory increased, and the international price declined. The urea price was expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton [79][80][82]. - **PX**: The spot price of PX was stable, and the supply was expected to increase while the demand was expected to be relatively stable. The PX price was expected to fluctuate in the range of 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton [83][84]. - **PTA**: The spot price of PTA was in a sideways trend, and the supply was expected to be tight in September but weak in the medium term. The demand was expected to increase slightly, and the PTA price was expected to fluctuate in the range of 4600 - 4800 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct a rolling reverse - spread arbitrage between TA1 and TA5 [85][86]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price followed the raw materials, and the supply was at a high level. The demand was expected to increase slightly, but the new orders were insufficient. The short - fiber price was expected to follow the raw materials, and the processing fee was expected to fluctuate in the range of 800 - 1100 yuan/ton [87]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The bottle - chip price followed the cost, and the supply and demand were expected to decrease in September. The inventory was expected to increase, and the processing fee had limited upward space. It is recommended to follow the PTA strategy, and the main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [88][89]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene - glycol price was in a downward trend, and the supply was expected to increase in the fourth quarter. The demand was expected to decrease after the peak season. It is recommended to pay attention to the EG1 - 5 reverse - spread arbitrage opportunity [91]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic - soda market was stable, and the supply was expected to decline next week. The demand from alumina plants was expected to weaken. The caustic - soda price was expected to be stable in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the alumina - plant procurement rhythm and device fluctuations [92][93]. - **PVC**: The PVC price was stable, and the supply was expected to increase. The demand was weak, and the PVC price was expected to continue to be in a weak - sideways trend [94][95]. - **Pure Benzene**: The pure - benzene price had limited upward drive, and the supply was expected to be relatively loose. The demand from downstream products was weak. The pure - benzene price was expected to follow the styrene price and fluctuate at a low level [96]. - **Styrene**: The styrene price was in a low - level sideways trend, and the supply was expected to decrease in the future. The demand from downstream products increased slightly. The styrene price was expected to have a low - level support, and it is recommended to go long at a low level and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 [97][98]. Special Commodities - **Natural Rubber**: The natural - rubber price fluctuated at a high level, and the cost was supported. The demand was expected to increase, but the increase in production capacity might be limited. The natural - rubber price was expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [106][107][108]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon price increased, and the supply was expected to decline slightly in September. The demand was at a low level, and the inventory decreased slightly. The polysilicon price was affected by policy expectations, and it is recommended to wait and see [108][109][110]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial - silicon price increased, and the supply was expected to increase in September. The demand was relatively stable, and the inventory decreased slightly. The industrial - silicon price was expected to have a cost - side support, and it is recommended to try to go long at a low price, with the main price fluctuation range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [110][111][113]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: The soda - ash price was in a narrow - range sideways trend, and the supply was at a high level while the demand was in a rigid - demand pattern. The glass price was affected by production - line news, and the inventory decreased. The soda - ash price is recommended to be shorted on the rebound, and the glass price is recommended to wait and see [114][115][116].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily tracking and analysis of the positions of stock index futures, including the overall position changes and the significant position adjustments of the top 20 seats for IF, IH, IC, and IM [1][4][10] Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On September 11, the total position of the IF variety increased by 6,664 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 1,600 lots [4] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IF variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 46,032 lots. Guoxin Futures had the largest long - position increase, adding 1,639 lots, while Guotou Futures had the largest long - position decrease, reducing 838 lots [5] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IF variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 49,142 lots. Guoxin Futures had the largest short - position increase, adding 1,640 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest short - position decrease, reducing 1,239 lots [7] IH (SSE 50) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On September 11, the total position of the IH variety increased by 8,511 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 2,315 lots [10] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IH variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 12,063 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest long - position increase, adding 2,004 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest long - position decrease, reducing 328 lots [10] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IH variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 16,560 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest short - position increase, adding 2,628 lots, while Zhongtai Futures had the largest short - position decrease, reducing 140 lots [11] IC (CSI 500) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On September 11, the total position of the IC variety increased by 18,948 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 623 lots [15] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 42,132 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest long - position increase, adding 3,223 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest long - position decrease, reducing 573 lots [16] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 46,910 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest short - position increase, adding 6,349 lots, while Huatai Futures had the largest short - position decrease, reducing 385 lots [18] IM (CSI 1000) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On September 11, the total position of the IM variety increased by 4,629 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 6,657 lots [21] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IM variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 53,198 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest long - position increase, adding 2,993 lots, while CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the largest long - position decrease, reducing 945 lots [22] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IM variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 78,531 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest short - position increase, adding 1,180 lots, while Dongzheng Futures had the largest short - position decrease, reducing 529 lots [24]

Group 1: General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils & fats, meals, hogs, corn, cotton, eggs, and sugar, with data as of September 12, 2025 [1][3][6][8][11][13][17] Group 2: Industry-Specific Investment Ratings - There is no information provided on industry investment ratings in the given reports Group 3: Core Views Oils & Fats - For palm oil, closely monitor if the futures price can stabilize above 4,400 ringgit. A break below may open new downside. Domestically, short - term support is at 9,000 yuan. For soybean oil, the CBOT December contract may briefly fall below 50 cents if CBOT soybeans decline further. On the domestic front, downstream demand is increasing, but supply is still ample, and the January contract of Dalian soybean oil may trade in a narrow range before the USDA report [1] Meals - The downside for meal prices is limited. In the fourth quarter, domestic soybean supply is not abundant, and cost support for meals remains strong. The market awaits the USDA September supply - demand report, with expectations of a lower yield but high production [3] Hogs - Spot prices have limited downside as they are at a low level. Demand is slowly rising, but it's uncertain if it can absorb the supply. The market may see a short - term rebound but has potential for further decline due to large supply pressure [6] Corn - The market is divided regionally. In the short term, supply and demand are both weak, and the futures price is under pressure. In the medium term, it is expected to remain weak [8] Cotton - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may trade in a range. In the long term, they may face pressure when new cotton hits the market [11] Eggs - Egg prices may rebound in early September but with limited upside. A decline risk increases after the second and third rounds of restocking end [14] Sugar - Raw sugar supply pressure is high, and it is expected to remain weak. However, the upside for the sugar - ethanol ratio in Brazil is limited. The sugar market sentiment is weak, and prices are expected to fluctuate [17] Group 4: Industry - Specific Data Summaries Oils & Fats - **Soybean Oil**: Spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.35% to 8,540 yuan; futures price (Y2601) increased by 0.07% to 8,568 yuan; basis (Y2601) decreased by 11.69% to 272 yuan [1] - **Palm Oil**: Spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.54% to 9,220 yuan; futures price (P2601) remained unchanged at 9,446 yuan; basis (P2601) decreased by 28.41% to - 226 yuan; import profit increased by 18.57% to - 195 yuan; warehouse receipts increased by 5.72% to 1,570 [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.30% to 9,940 yuan; futures price (OI601) increased by 0.87% to 10,023 yuan; basis (OI601) decreased by 207.41% to - 83 yuan [1] Meals - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,030 yuan; futures price (M2601) increased by 0.72% to 3,088 yuan; basis (M2601) decreased by 61.11% to - 58 yuan; Brazilian October shipment crush margin increased by 47.2% to 53 yuan; warehouse receipts increased by 6.4% to 27,565 [3] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2,630 yuan; futures price (RM2601) increased by 1.34% to 2,567 yuan; basis (RM2601) decreased by 35.05% to 63 yuan; Canadian November shipment crush margin increased by 2.68% to 881 yuan; warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,383 [3] Hogs - **Futures**: The price of Live Hog 2511 increased by 0.04% to 13,320 yuan; Live Hog 2601 decreased by 0.07% to 13,730 yuan; the 11 - 1 spread increased by 3.53% to - 410 yuan; the main contract's open interest increased by 0.31% to 75,953; warehouse receipts remained at 428 [6] - **Spot**: Prices in Henan decreased by 0.37% to 13,500 yuan; in Shandong remained at 13,500 yuan; in Sichuan remained at 13,350 yuan; in Liaoning remained at 13,100 yuan; in Guangdong remained at 14,290 yuan; in Hunan increased by 0.76% to 13,210 yuan; in Hebei decreased by 0.74% to 13,400 yuan [6] Corn - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2511 increased by 0.23% to 2,202 yuan; the basis decreased by 4.42% to 108 yuan; the 11 - 3 spread increased by 45.45% to 16 yuan; the south - north trade profit increased by 11.36% to 49 yuan; import profit increased by 0.20% to 504 yuan; the number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased by 76.37% to 806; open interest increased by 0.84% to 1,581,422; warehouse receipts decreased by 0.16% to 51,874 [8] - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2511 decreased by 0.44% to 2,477 yuan; the basis increased by 15.28% to 83 yuan; the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 42.11% to - 27 yuan; the starch - corn spread decreased by 5.50% to 275 yuan; Shandong's processing profit increased by 48.78% to - 42 yuan; open interest increased by 4.83% to 295,207; warehouse receipts increased by 5.78% to 9,500 [8] Cotton - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2605 decreased by 0.18% to 13,795 yuan; Cotton 2601 decreased by 0.14% to 13,835 yuan; the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 14.29% to - 40 yuan; the main contract's open interest decreased by 0.47% to 502,476; warehouse receipts decreased by 3.06% to 5,159 [11] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.16% to 12,186 yuan; the CC Index 3128B decreased by 0.24% to 15,249 yuan; the FC Index M 1% increased by 0.26% to 13,353 yuan [11] Eggs - The price of the Egg 11 contract increased by 0.79% to 3,044 yuan; the Egg 10 contract increased by 0.79% to 3,043 yuan; the spot price in the production area increased by 0.94% to 3.47 yuan per catty; the basis increased by 1.78% to 426 yuan; the 11 - 10 spread remained unchanged at 1 [13] Sugar - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 increased by 0.38%; Sugar 2605 increased by 0.31% to 5,524 yuan; the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.57% to 15.80 cents per pound; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 14.29% to 32 yuan; the main contract's open interest increased by 0.62% to 391,605; warehouse receipts decreased by 0.28% to 11,739 [17] - **Spot**: The price in Nanning increased by 0.17% to 5,890 yuan; in Kunming increased by 0.26% to 5,850 yuan; the Nanning basis decreased by 1.88% to 366 yuan; the Kunming basis decreased by 0.61% to 326 yuan [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel price is in a weak downward trend, with the decline already factoring in the decrease in apparent demand. Further decline is subject to policy interference on the raw material supply side. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is currently in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. The 2601 contract showed an oscillating downward trend. It is advisable to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low prices and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the market anticipates 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. It is recommended to go short on the Coke 2601 contract at high prices and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke. For coking coal, the price may continue to decline in September. It is recommended to go short on the Coking Coal 2601 contract at high prices and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of most steel products declined slightly. For example, the spot price of threaded steel in the East China region dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price dropped by 11 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace threaded steel increased by 3 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter threaded steel decreased by 8 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils remained unchanged, and the profit of South China threaded steel increased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 11.6 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.4 to 857.2, a decrease of 0.4%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.9 to 1514.6, an increase of 0.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types declined. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder dropped by 9.9 to 838.1, a decrease of 1.2%. The 01 contract basis of various iron ore types increased significantly [3]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 800.6 to 2756.2, a decrease of 22.5%. The 247 - steel - mill daily average pig iron output increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The national crude steel monthly output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8, a decrease of 4.2% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 24.3 to 13849.65, an increase of 0.2%. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased by 67.3 to 6636.8, a decrease of 0.7% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts increased. For example, the Coke 01 contract increased by 27 to 1630, a rise of 1.7%. The Coking Coal 01 contract increased by 25 to 1142, a rise of 2.2% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8%. The 247 - steel - mill daily average pig iron output increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1% [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 11.0 to 906.2, an increase of 1.2%. The total coking coal inventory decreased slightly. For example, the all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory decreased by 36.5 to 883.5, a decrease of 4.0% [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: MPOB report shows inventory growth to 2.2 million tons, and the unexpected decline in the first 10 - day export data brings negative pressure. There is a risk of the futures price falling below 4,400 ringgit and continuing to weaken. Domestically, it will first consider the support at 9,000 yuan. If Malaysian palm oil weakens, Dalian palm oil may follow a downward - fluctuating trend [1]. - Soybean oil: Analysts expect the USDA report to lower the US soybean yield forecast, but the high - level of US soybean's excellent rate still maintains the expectation of a good harvest. The upcoming concentrated supply pressure will weigh on the market. Domestically, although the demand season is coming, the current oversupply of soybeans will keep the basis quotation in a narrow - range adjustment [1]. Meal Products - The high excellent rate of US soybeans suppresses the market's bullish sentiment. The strong supply and weak demand pattern of US soybeans continues. The relatively high Brazilian basis provides support for domestic costs. Recently, the domestic concern about future supply has eased, and the spot is loose. The increase in oil mills' soybean meal inventory and the lack of terminal purchasing enthusiasm suppress the basis. However, the cost support is strong, and the decline space of domestic meal products is limited [3]. Pig Industry - The slaughter of the breeding end is stabilizing, and the reluctance to sell at low prices has increased. The entry of secondary fattening in some areas provides support for the spot. The spot pressure has been gradually realized, and the price has fallen to a low - level range with limited further decline space. The demand is slowly recovering, but whether it can smoothly absorb the supply is uncertain. There may be a wave of concentrated slaughter before the double festivals. The market rebounded today due to the policy boost, but there is still potential for decline later, and the overall supply - demand pressure is large [6]. Corn Industry - In the Northeast, the purchase and sale are still dull, and the new season's corn has not been listed in large quantities, so the price remains firm. In North China, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price continues to run weakly. As corn is transitioning to the new season, the tight inventory of old - season corn and the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, along with the expected increase in production and the decrease in planting costs, put pressure on the price. On the demand side, the purchasing enthusiasm of deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. In the short - term, the supply and demand of corn are both weak, and the futures price is under pressure, maintaining a weak pattern in the medium - term [8]. Sugar Industry - The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of August increased year - on - year, and the sugar - making ratio reached a new high, resulting in a large supply pressure on raw sugar and a price drop below 16 cents per pound. The overall supply pressure of raw sugar remains large, and it is expected to maintain a weak pattern. However, as the sugar price approaches the tax - included ethanol price, the room for the future increase of the sugar - alcohol ratio in Brazil is limited. The new sugar will be on the market in less than a month, and the pre - sale price is lower than the current market price. The futures price is weak, and the market sentiment is weak. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [12]. Cotton Industry - Some cotton ginning factories have started purchasing this week, but the pricing methods of cotton for wadding and spinning are different, and the new cotton purchase driver is still unclear. In the short - term, the upward and downward space of domestic cotton prices may be limited, and the downstream has little confidence in the traditional peak season. In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, and will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [13]. Egg Industry - The increase in traders' purchases in recent days may drive up the egg price. However, the high inventory and the impact of cold - stored eggs on the market will suppress the increase of the egg price. After the second and third batches of replenishment in the second half of the week, the demand may fade, and the risk of the egg price decline increases. The egg price may rebound in early September, but the overall increase is limited, maintaining a bearish view [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.15% to 8,570 yuan/ton, and the futures price of Y2601 decreased by 192 yuan [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 1.59% to 9,270 yuan/ton, and the futures price of P2601 decreased by 34 yuan [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.20% to 9,910 yuan/ton, and the futures price of OI601 decreased by 43 yuan [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: - The basis of soybean oil Y2601 increased by 92 yuan to 308 yuan [1]. - The basis of palm oil P2601 decreased by 116 yuan to - 176 yuan [1]. - The 09 - 01 spread of soybean oil decreased by 40 yuan to 6 yuan, a decrease of 86.96% [1]. - The spot spread between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 50 yuan to - 700 yuan, an increase of 6.67% [1]. - The spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil in 2509 increased by 149 yuan to 1,675 yuan, an increase of 9.76% [1]. Meal Products - **Price Changes**: - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,030 yuan/ton, and the futures price of M2601 decreased by 9 yuan to 3,066 yuan/ton [3]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan to 2,630 yuan/ton, and the futures price of RM2601 decreased by 17 yuan to 2,533 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: - The basis of soybean meal M2601 increased by 9 yuan to - 36 yuan [3]. - The basis of rapeseed meal RM2601 increased by 27 yuan to 97 yuan [3]. - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal decreased by 7 yuan to 268 yuan, a decrease of 2.55% [3]. - The 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 14 yuan to 128 yuan, a decrease of 9.86% [3]. - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 10 yuan to 400 yuan, a decrease of 2.44% [3]. Pig Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - The futures price of the main contract decreased by 85 yuan to - 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.95% [6]. - The spot price in Henan remained unchanged at 13,550 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan to 13,500 yuan/ton [6]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 879 to 147,686, a decrease of 0.59% [6]. - The weekly white - striped pork price increased by 0.1 yuan to 20.10 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.25% [6]. - The self - breeding profit increased by 20.4 yuan to 53 yuan/head, an increase of 63.31% [6]. Corn Industry - **Price Changes**: - The futures price of corn 2511 decreased by 17 yuan to 2,197 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77% [8]. - The FOB price at Jinzhou Port decreased by 10 yuan to 2,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% [8]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The basis increased by 7 yuan to 113 yuan, an increase of 6.60% [8]. - The 11 - 3 spread of corn increased by 1 yuan to 11 yuan, an increase of 10.00% [8]. - The long - distance trade profit remained unchanged at 44 yuan [8]. Sugar Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - The futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 17 yuan to 5,535 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31% [12]. - The spot price in Kunming increased by 15 yuan to 5,835 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.26% [12]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The national cumulative sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons to 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 12.03% [12]. - The national cumulative sugar sales increased by 130 million tons to 955 million tons, an increase of 15.76% [12]. - The national industrial inventory decreased by 11.3 million tons to 96.89 million tons, a decrease of 10.44% [12]. Cotton Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - The futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 30 yuan to 13,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22% [13]. - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 43 yuan to 15,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% [13]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The commercial inventory decreased by 33.85 million tons to 148.17 million tons, a decrease of 18.6% [13]. - The industrial inventory decreased by 3.19 million tons to 89.23 million tons, a decrease of 3.5% [13]. - The cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 9.86 million tons to 53.46 million tons, an increase of 22.6% [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - The futures price of the egg 11 - contract decreased by 63 yuan to 3,020 yuan/500KG, a decrease of 2.04% [15]. - The egg - producing area price increased by 0.03 yuan to 3.44 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.79% [15]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The egg - chicken chick price remained unchanged at 3.00 yuan/feather [15]. - The culled - hen price decreased by 0.21 yuan to 4.62 yuan/jin, a decrease of 4.35% [15]. - The egg - feed ratio increased by 0.07 to 2.50, an increase of 2.88% [15].

Report on the Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Steel prices are maintaining a weak trend, with the demand for steel remaining at a low level during the off - season and showing no signs of recovery. Steel inventories are accumulating at a low price level from August to September. There is an expectation that the demand will pick up during the peak season, and the inventory accumulation will slow down. The steel supply - demand situation has not deteriorated to the negative feedback stage. Future steel prices will mainly follow the supply - side expectations of coking coal. For trading, focus on the support levels of 3100 for the January contract of rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils [1]. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions (East China, North China, South China) and futures contract prices (05, 10, 01) all showed a downward trend, with a decline of 10 yuan/ton for most spot prices and 1 - 14 yuan/ton for futures contract prices [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the slab price remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar remained stable. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils remained unchanged, North China hot - rolled coils increased by 20, and South China hot - rolled coils increased by 10. The profits of rebar in different regions showed different trends, with North China's rebar profit decreasing by 10 [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 11.1 to 229.0, a decline of 4.6%. The output of the five major steel products decreased by 24.0 to 860.7, a decline of 2.7%. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 32.8 to 1500.7, a rise of 2.2%. The rebar inventory increased by 16.6 to 640.0, a rise of 2.7%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.9 to 374.3, a rise of 2.4% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 9.3, a decline of 8.3%. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 29.9 to 827.8, a decline of 3.5%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased [1]. Report on the Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View As of the close of trading yesterday afternoon, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a stable and volatile trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume has significantly declined from its annual high, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. It is expected that the subsequent average arrival volume will first increase and then decrease. The sharp decline in shipments is mainly due to the decline in Brazilian shipments. On the demand side, after the major events ended, the pig iron output will significantly increase this week, and the steel mills' restocking demand will increase. It is expected that both supply and demand will pick up this week. In terms of inventory, the port inventory has slightly increased, the cargo clearance volume has decreased, and the steel mills' equity ore inventory has decreased. In the future, due to the relatively high profitability of steel mills, the pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year provides support for iron ore. Pay attention to the production control situation of steel mills in the fourth quarter. For trading strategies, iron ore is still in a tight - balanced pattern, with a bullish view on the single - side volatility, and the range is between 780 - 830. It is recommended to buy on dips for the iron ore 2601 contract and reduce the long - iron - ore and short - coking - coal arbitrage [3]. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore varieties (Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, Jinbuba fines) all decreased by 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.4%. The basis of the 01 contract for different varieties has increased significantly, with an increase of 41.7 - 41.8 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.6%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.6%, and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port (Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, Jinbuba fines) all decreased by 3 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.3 - 0.4%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap increased by 1.5 to 106.8, a rise of 1.4%, and the Jinshi 62% Fe increased by 2 to 107.7, a rise of 1.8% [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 78.0 to 2448.0, a decline of 3.1%. The global shipment volume decreased by 800.6 to 2756.2, a decline of 22.5%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 to 10462.3, a decline of 1.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8, a decline of 4.7%. The 45 - port daily average cargo clearance volume decreased by 0.9 to 317.8, a decline of 0.3%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 110.8 to 7079.7, a decline of 1.5%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8, a decline of 4.2% [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 24.3 to 13849.65, a rise of 0.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 67.3 to 9007.2, a decline of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1 to 21, a rise of 5.0% [3]. Report on the Coking Coal and Coke Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View As of the close of trading yesterday afternoon, the coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, with sharp price fluctuations recently. The spot auction prices were stable to weak, and the Mongolian coal quotes were weak. The coke futures showed a volatile rebound trend, with sharp price fluctuations recently. After the first - round price cut of coke spot, it remained stable, and the port trade quotes followed the futures. In the future, as the coking profit improves and the production restrictions are lifted, the supply of coke will gradually become more abundant, with an expected 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. The coking coal price may continue to decline in September. For trading strategies, it is recommended to take profits on short positions for both coking coal and coke, with a neutral view on the volatility. The trading range for coke is 1550 - 1650, and for coking coal is 1070 - 1170. Reduce the long - iron - ore and short - coking - coal/coke arbitrage, and pay attention to the risks of large price fluctuations [5]. Summary by Directory Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal contracts (01, 05) decreased, with the 01 contract decreasing by 7 yuan/ton and the 05 contract decreasing by 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract increased by 7 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract increased by 10 yuan/ton. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 8 to 424, a decline of 1.9% [5]. Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke contracts (01, 05) increased, with the 01 contract increasing by 6 yuan/ton and the 05 contract increasing by 7 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract decreased by 6 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract decreased by 7 yuan/ton. The steel - union coking profit decreased by 11 to - 24 [5]. Overseas Coal Prices and Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price increased by 0.1 to 201, a rise of 0.1%. The Jingtang Port Australian prime coking coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 70 to 1560, a decline of 4.5%. The Guangzhou Port Australian steam coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 4.7 to 739, a decline of 0.64% [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3, a decline of 0.34%. The raw coal output decreased by 43.1 to 860.5, a decline of 5.0%, and the clean coal output decreased by 25.4 to 444.5, a decline of 5.74% [5]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.2 to 228.8, a decline of 4.74%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3, a decline of 0.34% [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 7.8 to 895.3, a rise of 0.9%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.2 to 66.5, a rise of 1.8%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 13.6 to 623.7, a rise of 2.2%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 41.2 to 967.3, a decline of 4.34%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 16.1 to 811.9, a decline of 2.04% [5]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 4.9 to - 0.8 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports mainly present the daily data of stock index futures spreads, treasury bond futures spreads, precious metals spot - futures, container shipping industry, and capital flow and key positions changes, including the latest values, changes compared with the previous day, historical quantiles, etc., to help investors understand the market trends and price relationships of different financial products [1][2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Price - Spot Spreads**: IF price - spot spread is - 12.96, down 2.91; IH is - 1.79, up 1.44; IC is - 12.54, down 68.71; IM is - 79.17, down 18.94 [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different contracts' inter - period spreads show various changes, such as IF's far - month to current - month spread is - 54.20, down 7.20 [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF also have specific values and changes, e.g., CSI 500/CSI 300 is 1.5594, down 0.0025 [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: TS IRR is 1.4442, down 0.0180; TF basis is 1.3160; T basis is 1.0310 [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, TS's current - season to next - season spread is 0.0300, down 0.0040 [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: TS - TF is - 3.0750, up 0.1170 [2]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic AU2510 contract is 833.42 yuan/g, down 1.06; AG2510 contract is 9796 yuan/kg, down 50. Foreign COMEX gold is 3680.40 dollars/ounce, up 16.60 [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold is 3639.81 dollars/ounce, up 15.64; Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D is 829.72 yuan/g, down 2.19 [3]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 3.70, down 1.13; silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract is - 12, down 13 [3]. - **Ratios, Rates, and Other Data**: COMEX gold/silver ratio is 88.36, down 0.23; 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.04%, down 0.04% [3]. Container Shipping Industry - **Spot Quotes**: For Shanghai - Europe routes, MAERSK's rate is 1786 dollars/FEU, down 65 [5]. - **Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route) settlement price index is 1566.46, down 207.1; SCFI (European) is 1315 dollars/TEU, down 166.0 [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 contract price is 1527.4, unchanged; the basis of the main contract is 132.0, down 207.1 [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply is 3299.69 FTEU, unchanged; Shanghai port on - time rate is 32.58%, down 1.99% [5]. Capital Flow and Key Positions Changes - No valid data is provided in the given report for this part.

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Oils and Fats - Palm oil: The MPOB report shows an inventory increase to 2.2 million tons, and the unexpected decline in the first 10 - day export data is bearish. There is a risk of the futures price falling below 4,400 ringgit and continuing to weaken. In the domestic market, it will first test the support at 9,000 yuan. If Malaysian palm oil continues to decline, domestic palm oil may follow suit [1]. - Soybean oil: Analysts expect the USDA report to lower the U.S. soybean yield forecast, but the high - quality rate of U.S. soybeans is high, so the expectation of a bumper harvest remains. In the absence of Chinese purchases, the USDA may lower the U.S. soybean export forecast. The approaching harvest and concentrated supply pressure will weigh on the market. In the domestic market, although the demand season is coming, the current supply is excessive, and the basis quotation will fluctuate slightly [1]. Meal - The high - quality rate of U.S. soybeans is still high, suppressing market bullish sentiment. The U.S. soybean supply is strong and demand is weak, while Brazil's premium is strong, supporting domestic costs. Recently, domestic concerns about future supply have eased, and with soybean auctions, the spot market is loose. Oil mills' soybean meal inventory has risen to a high level, and weak terminal purchasing enthusiasm suppresses the basis. However, the cost provides good support, and the decline space of domestic meal is limited. The supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is not expected to be loose [3]. Pork - The slaughter volume of farmers has stabilized, and the reluctance to sell at low prices has increased. Some areas have seen secondary fattening, which supports the spot price. Although the spot pressure has been realized, the price has reached a low level, and the room for further decline is limited. The demand is slowly recovering, but whether it can absorb the supply is uncertain. There may be a wave of concentrated slaughter before the double festivals. The market strengthened today due to the Ministry of Agriculture's meeting on capacity regulation, but there is still potential for decline after the short - term rebound, and the overall supply - demand pressure is large [6]. Corn - In the Northeast, the purchase and sale are dull, and the new season corn has not been massively listed, so the price is firm; in North China, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price is slightly weak. As corn transitions to the new season, the old - season inventory is tight, and the new - season corn has not been massively listed, which slightly supports the price. However, the concentrated listing of corn in mid - to late September, the expected increase in production, and the decline in planting costs will put pressure on the price. On the demand side, the purchasing enthusiasm of deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. In the short term, the corn market has weak supply and demand, and the futures price is under pressure. In the medium term, it will maintain a weak pattern [8]. Sugar - In the first half of August, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 15.96% year - on - year, and the sugar - making ratio reached a new high, resulting in large supply pressure and the price falling below 16 cents per pound. The overall supply pressure of raw sugar remains large, and it is expected to maintain a weak pattern. However, as the sugar price approaches the含税 ethanol price, the future increase in the sugar - alcohol ratio in Brazil is limited. With the new sugar to be listed in less than a month and the pre - sale price lower than the current market price, the sales time for old sugar is limited. The futures price is weak, the market sentiment is bearish, and the sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [12]. Cotton - Some cotton ginning factories have started purchasing this week, but the pricing methods for wadding cotton and spinning cotton are different, and the new - cotton purchase driver is still unclear. In the short term, the price has limited upward and downward space, and the downstream demand improvement is insufficient, and the confidence in the traditional peak season is low. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range, and it will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [13]. Eggs - In recent days, the increase in traders' purchases may drive up the egg price. However, the high inventory and the impact of cold - storage eggs on the market will limit the price increase. After the second and third rounds of replenishment in the second half of the week, the demand may weaken, and the risk of price decline increases. Overall, the egg price may rebound in early September, but the increase is limited, and a bearish view is maintained [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: The prices of various oils such as soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil have changed. For example, the price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil decreased by 1.15%, and the price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 1.59% [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread of different oil varieties have also changed. For example, the soybean - palm oil spread in the spot market increased by 6.67%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread in the 2509 contract increased by 9.76% [1]. - **Inventory and Import Profit**: The inventory of palm oil and soybean oil in China and the import profit of palm oil are also presented in the report [1]. Meal - **Price and Basis**: The prices and basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans have changed. For example, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged, and the basis of the M2601 contract increased by 20% [3]. - **Import Profit and Spread**: The import profit of different origins and the spread between different meal varieties are shown. For example, the import profit of Brazilian soybeans in October decreased by 42.9%, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the 2601 contract increased by 1.52% [3]. Pork - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of futures contracts such as the main contract, the 2511 contract, and the 2601 contract of pork have changed, and the spot prices in different regions are also provided, along with indicators such as slaughter volume, white - strip price, and breeding profit [6]. Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of corn futures contracts such as the 2511 contract and the spot prices in different regions (such as Jinzhou Port and Shekou) have changed. The report also includes information on import profit, processing enterprise vehicle volume, and inventory [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The prices of corn starch futures contracts and spot prices in different regions (such as Changchun and Weifang) have changed, along with information on basis, spread, and processing profit [8]. Sugar - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of sugar futures contracts such as the 2601 and 2605 contracts and the spot prices in different regions (such as Kunming and Nanning) have changed. The report also includes information on import sugar prices, basis, and industry indicators such as production, sales, and inventory [12]. Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of cotton futures contracts such as the 2601 and 2605 contracts and the spot prices in different regions (such as Xinjiang) have changed. The report also includes information on basis, spread, and industry indicators such as inventory, export volume, and processing profit [13]. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of egg futures contracts such as the 10 and 11 contracts and the spot prices in different regions have changed. The report also includes information on basis, spread, and industry indicators such as egg - chicken chick price, culled - chicken price, and breeding profit [15][16].

1. Natural Rubber Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not mentioned - **Core Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little. The upstream cost side still provides support, while downstream users are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and the possible impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply. If raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling; if supply is restricted, rubber prices are expected to remain high [1] - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 10, the price of Yunnan Guofu standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai dropped to 15,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31%. The new basis difference decreased by 34.78%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 15,000 yuan/ton. The price of cup rubber in the international market increased slightly by 0.29%, while the price of glue remained unchanged. The price of natural rubber raw materials in Hainan increased by 1.49% [1] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 0.51%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 22.22%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.49% [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's production increased by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, and India's decreased by 2.17%. China's production decreased by 1.30. The weekly开工 rate of semi - steel and all - steel automobile tires decreased. Domestic tire production decreased by 8.16%, while tire exports increased by 10.51%. The import of natural rubber increased by 2.47%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 5.40%. The production cost of dry rubber in Thailand increased, and the production profit margin decreased [1] - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 1.99%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade warehouses changed to varying degrees [1] 2. Polysilicon Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not mentioned - **Core Viewpoint**: In September, the supply reduction is not obvious, and the demand for silicon wafers has increased slightly. The supply - demand relationship may show a slight de - stocking pattern. The spot price transmission mechanism is smooth, but the futures market is more influenced by policy expectations. Short - term price fluctuations should be watched out for [2] - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 10, the average price of N - type re - feed decreased by 0.10%, and the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The basis of N - type materials increased by 30.47%. The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable, while the price of N - type 210mm components for centralized projects increased by 0.29% [2] - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 1.19%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 104.65%, and the spreads between other contracts changed to varying degrees [2] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly, silicon wafer production increased by 3.53%, and polysilicon production decreased by 2.58%. Monthly, polysilicon production increased by 23.31%, imports by 40.30%, exports by 5.96%, and net exports decreased by 14.92%. Silicon wafer production increased by 6.24%, imports decreased by 15.41%, exports increased by 11.37%, and net exports increased by 15.56%. The demand for silicon wafers increased by 0.14% [2] - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.94%, silicon wafer inventory decreased by 6.65%, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 7.28% [2] 3. Industrial Silicon Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not mentioned - **Core Viewpoint**: The cost of industrial silicon is expected to rise, and although production has increased, there are signs of capacity clearance. The supply - demand relationship was in tight balance in August. If some capacities are cleared in the long - term, supply pressure will ease. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3] - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On September 10, the prices of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged. The basis of each type decreased to varying degrees [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 206.25% [3] - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly, national industrial silicon production increased by 14.01%, with increases in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan. The national开工 rate increased by 6.20%. The production of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. Industrial silicon exports increased by 8.32% [3] - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang's inventory increased slightly by 0.25%, while Yunnan's and Sichuan's factory - warehouse inventories decreased. Social inventory decreased by 0.74%, warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.18%, and non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.53% [3] 4. Log Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not mentioned - **Core Viewpoint**: The log futures are in a volatile pattern. The spot market is weak, and the import enthusiasm of traders is low. Supply is expected to remain low in September. Inventory is low and has been decreasing. Demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters but has not improved significantly. The current futures valuation is relatively low, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [4] - **Summary by Directory** - **Futures and Spot Price**: On September 10, the price of the log 2511 contract increased to 806.5 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of different types of radiation pine and spruce in ports remained unchanged. The new round of foreign quotes decreased to the range of 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [4] - **Spread and Basis**: The 9 - 11 spread and 9 - 1 spread, as well as the basis of each contract, changed to varying degrees [4] - **Supply**: In the previous week, the arrival volume at 12 ports in China reached a new low of about 170,000 cubic meters. This week, 11 ships of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 12 ports in China, with a total arrival volume of about 402,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 136% [4] - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the total inventory of coniferous logs in the country was 2.94 million cubic meters, showing a continuous decreasing trend [4] - **Demand**: As of September 5, the average daily log outbound volume was 61,200 cubic meters, showing a slight decline but still remaining above 60,000 cubic meters [4] 5. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not mentioned - **Core Viewpoint** - **Soda Ash**: The futures market continues to be weak and volatile. The fundamental logic of oversupply persists. Although inventory has not increased significantly this week, it has actually shifted to the middle and lower reaches. Supply has returned to a high level. In the medium - term, demand will remain at a rigid level. The supply is high after the traditional summer maintenance season. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction, inventory will face further pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [5] - **Glass**: The news of the conversion of coal - fired gas production lines to clean energy in the Shahe area caused the futures market to rise. However, the specific conversion time is undetermined, and the shutdown time is expected to be limited. There are still some restart and ignition plans in the future. The inventory of manufacturers in the Shahe area is increasing, and the inventory of the middle - stream has not decreased significantly. Deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs capacity clearance. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the actual demand in the peak season [5] - **Summary by Directory** - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in different regions changed to varying degrees. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased. The 05 basis increased by 7.75% [5] - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained unchanged. The price of the soda ash 2505 contract decreased by 0.37%, and the price of the 2509 contract increased by 0.22%. The 05 basis increased by 8.62% [5] - **Supply**: The soda ash开工 rate increased by 4.55%, and the weekly production increased to 751,700 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged. The price of 3.2mm coated glass increased by 8.11% [5] - **Inventory**: Glass inventory increased by 0.77%, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.43%, soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 8.03%, and the number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories decreased by 12.54% [5] - **Real - Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real - estate all showed different degrees of decline [5]