Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Indonesia's export surge and B50 blending signal boosted the market, but market focus may shift back to Malaysia. The overall view is near - weak and far - strong, with potential for the futures to rise again [1]. - Soybean oil: US biodiesel policy can't sustain the uptrend. Trade negotiations affect CBOT soybeans. Domestic demand may increase later, providing some support for basis quotes [1]. Sugar - Internationally, the bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but with an overall bearish view considering the production increase. Domestically, the market is in a marginal supply - demand relaxation, with a bearish view after a rebound and short - term high - level narrow - range oscillation expected [4]. Cotton - Short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and new cotton may face pressure after listing due to increased supply pressure and weak demand [6]. Corn - Short - term market trading is light, with the futures oscillating. In the medium - to - long - term, the third - quarter supply is tight, while the fourth - quarter may be more balanced [7]. Pork - Spot prices are weak. Short - term pig prices are not optimistic, with spot prices at the bottom and limited upside for the near - month 09 contract. The far - month is affected by policies [10]. Meal and Grains - US soybeans are at the bottom, with potential support. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and it's recommended to wait and see [13]. Eggs - This week's egg demand may first decrease and then increase. Next week, some areas' egg prices may decline slightly, but there is still upside potential for spot prices, while futures have limited upside [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On July 25, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8380 yuan/ton, with a 0.24% increase; the futures price of Y2509 was 8144 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The basis was 236, up 21.65%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 200 to 21495 [1]. - **Palm oil**: In Guangdong, the 24 - degree spot price on July 25 was 9000 yuan/ton, down 0.55%; the futures price of P2509 was 8936 yuan/ton, down 1.85%. The basis was - 168, up 218.52%. The import cost was 9289.1 yuan/ton, and the import profit was - 282 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu on July 25 was 9570 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of O1509 was 9457 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. The basis was 113, up 44.87% [1]. Sugar - **Futures market**: On July 25, the price of sugar 2601 was 5706 yuan/ton, up 0.67%; the price of sugar 2509 was 5876 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.57 cents/pound, up 1.84% [3]. - **Spot market**: The price in Nanning was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Kunming was 5920 yuan/ton, up 0.68%. The import price of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) was 4512 yuan/ton, up 1.53% [3]. - **Industrial situation**: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, and the cumulative sales increased by 23.07% year - on - year [3]. Cotton - **Futures market**: On July 25, the price of cotton 2509 was 14170 yuan/ton, up 0.07%; the price of cotton 2601 was 14115 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The ICE US cotton main contract was 68.23 cents/pound, down 0.74% [6]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15419 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; the CC Index of 3128B was 15549 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [6]. - **Industrial situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 10.2% month - on - month, and industrial inventory decreased by 2.3% month - on - month [6]. Corn - **Corn**: On July 25, the price of corn 2509 was 2311 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the basis was 40, up 16.67%. The import profit was 430 yuan/ton, down 2.39% [7]. - **Corn starch**: The price of corn starch 2509 was 2665 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the basis was 15, up 36.36% [7]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of the main contract was - 225, down 36.36%; the price of pork 2511 was 14385 yuan/ton, up 1.23%; the price of pork 2509 was 14385 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [10]. - **Spot**: The price in Henan was 14160 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price in Shandong was 14440 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The slaughter volume increased by 0.73%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 31.61% [10]. Meal and Grains - **Soybean meal**: The price in Jiangsu was 2860 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of M2509 was 3021 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. The basis was - 161, up 2.42% [13]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The price in Jiangsu was 2580 yuan/ton, up 0.39%; the price of RM2509 was 2675 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. The basis was - 95, up 15.18% [13]. - **Soybeans**: The price in Harbin was 3960 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of the soybean No. 1 main contract was 4224 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 264, unchanged [13]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the egg 09 contract was 3628 yuan/500KG, down 0.22%; the price of the egg 08 contract was 3522 yuan/500KG, down 1.12% [15]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 3.34 yuan/jin, unchanged. The breeding profit was - 32.98 yuan/feather, up 20.53% [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report Core Views - The pure benzene market has limited self - driving factors due to high port inventory and poor price transmission to downstream sectors, and its short - term trend fluctuates with the overall market sentiment. The styrene market also has a weak supply - demand outlook and increasing port inventory, with limited rebound space under the influence of market sentiment [24]. - The PX market is supported by domestic macro - sentiment and terminal restocking, but considering cost and inventory factors, short - term short - selling strategies can be considered. The PTA market may see short - term improvement but has a weak medium - term outlook. The ethylene glycol market is expected to be near balance in August [28][29]. - The methanol market has a strong inventory build - up expectation in August, and with low MTO profits and weak downstream demand, but the short - term influence of the macro - environment is significant, and MTO09 profit can be expanded at low levels [32]. - The caustic soda market may see stable prices in the short - term, and the PVC market has a supply - exceeding - demand situation, but both are strongly influenced by macro - sentiment [42]. - The polyolefin market is currently strengthened by policies and cost factors, but the real supply - demand situation is weak. In August, there is an increased inventory build - up pressure, and the PP can be considered for short - selling [46]. - The crude oil market is in a range - bound state due to the balance between supply - expansion expectations and macro - sentiment. Short - term trading can follow a band - trading strategy [49]. - The urea market is in a supply - exceeding - demand situation, with the futures market under pressure. It will remain in a range - bound state until there is a substantial improvement in demand [54]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Brent crude (September) was at $68.44/barrel, down $0.74 (-1.1%) from July 24; WTI crude (September) was at $65.16/barrel, down $0.87 (-1.3%); CFR Japan naphtha rose $5 (0.9%) to $581/ton; CFR China pure benzene increased $14 (1.9%) to $765/ton [21]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, styrene East - China spot was at 7580 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan (1.7%) from July 24; EB futures 2508 was at 7403 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan (1.0%); EB cash - flow (non - integrated) increased 34 yuan (19.0%) to 215 yuan/ton [22]. - **Downstream Cash - flows**: On July 25, phenol cash - flow was - 709 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan (8.4%) from July 24; aniline cash - flow decreased 104 yuan (-517.1%) to 84 yuan/ton [23]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 21, pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 17.10 million tons, up 0.70 million tons (4.3%) from July 14; the domestic pure benzene utilization rate was 76.6%, down 1.5% (-1.9%) from July 17 [24]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Brent crude (September) was at $68.44/barrel, down $0.74 (-1.1%) from July 24; CFR Japan naphtha rose $5 (0.9%) to $581/ton; CFR China PX increased $18 (2.1%) to $874/ton [28]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, PTA East - China spot price was 4895 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (1.7%) from July 24; TA futures 2509 was at 4936 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan (1.8%); PTA spot processing fee decreased 19 yuan (-9.5%) to 183 yuan/ton [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, MEG East - China spot price was 4582 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan (1.1%) from July 24; EG futures 2509 was at 4545 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan (1.3%); MEG import profit increased 7 yuan (-9.6%) to - 60 yuan/ton [28]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, MA2601 closed at 2587 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan (2.01%) from July 22; the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 438 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (2.94%) [32]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, methanol enterprise inventory was 33.983%, down 1.3% (-3.55%) from the previous value; the upstream domestic enterprise utilization rate was 70.37%, down 2.3% (-3.16%) from the previous value [32]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's converted - to - 100% price was 2593.8 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 24; East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 5160 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan (1.4%) [36]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of July 18, the caustic soda industry utilization rate was 86.3%, up 1.1% (1.3%) from July 11; the PVC total utilization rate was 75.0%, down 0.1% (-0.1%) [39]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, liquid caustic soda's East - China factory inventory was 21.3, up 2.6 (13.8%) from July 10; PVC's total social inventory was 41.1 million tons, up 1.8 million tons (4.7%) [42]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, L2601 closed at 7504 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan (0.91%) from July 24; the price of East - China LDPE was 9475 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.26%) [46]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, PE enterprise inventory was 49.3, up 5.47 (12.48%) from the previous value; the PE device utilization rate was 77.8%, down 1.67% (-2.10%) from the previous value [46]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 28, Brent was at $68.25/barrel, up $0.02 (0.16%) from July 25; WTI was at $65.25/barrel, up $0.09 (0.14%); the Brent - WTI spread was $3.30, up $0.02 (0.61%) [49]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: On July 28, NYM RBOB was 209.73 cents/gallon, up 0.03 cents (0.01%) from July 25; ICE Gasoil was $705.00/ton, down $10.25 (-1.43%) [49]. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spreads**: On July 28, the US gasoline cracking spread was $22.84/barrel, down $1.01 (-4.23%) from July 25; the European diesel cracking spread was $29.73/barrel, down $3.17 (-9.64%) [49]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, the 01 contract of urea futures closed at 1807, up 11 (0.61%) from July 24; the spread between the 01 contract and the 05 contract was - 15, down 7 (-87.50%) [53]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rates**: As of July 25, the domestic urea daily output was 19.27, up 0.24 (1.26%) from July 24; the domestic urea plant - level inventory was 85.88, down 3.67 (-4.10%) from the previous week's value [53][55].

Group 1: Metals Ferrous Metals - For silicon iron (SF509), the basis is -288, the basis rate is -4.67%, the spot price is 5878, the futures price is 6166, and the historical quantile is 46.00% [1] - For silicon manganese (SM509), the basis is -444, the basis rate is -6.92%, the spot price is 5970, the futures price is 6414, and the historical quantile is 1.80% [1] - For rebar (RB2510), the basis is 74, the basis rate is 2.21%, the spot price is 3430, the futures price is 3356, and the historical quantile is 42.80% [1] - For hot - rolled coil (HC2510), the basis is -7, the basis rate is -0.20%, the spot price is 3500, the futures price is 3507, and the historical quantile is 15.00% [1] - For iron ore (I2509), the basis is 22, the basis rate is 2.73%, the spot price is 824, the futures price is 803, and the historical quantile is 20.70% [1] - For coke (J2509), the basis is -214, the basis rate is -12.14%, the spot price is 1549, the futures price is 1763, and the historical quantile is 2.52% [1] - For coking coal (JM2509), the basis is -84, the basis rate is -6.67%, the spot price is 1175, the futures price is 1259, and the historical quantile is 2.30% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2509), the basis is 125, the basis rate is 0.25%, the spot price is 79450, the futures price is 79250, and the historical quantile is 64.37% [1] - For aluminum (AL2509), the basis is 20, the basis rate is 0.10%, the spot price is 20780, the futures price is 20760, and the historical quantile is 56.87% [1] - For alumina (AO2509), the basis is -182, the basis rate is -5.30%, the spot price is 3428, the futures price is 3246, and the historical quantile is 7.04% [1] - For zinc (ZN2509), the basis is -185, the basis rate is -0.81%, the spot price is 22885, the futures price is 22700, and the historical quantile is 12.08% [1] - For tin (SN2509), the basis is -530, the basis rate is -0.20%, the spot price is 271630, the futures price is 271100, and the historical quantile is 30.00% [1] - For nickel (NISE09), the basis is -310, the basis rate is -0.25%, the spot price is 124360, the futures price is 124050, and the historical quantile is 40.00% [1] - For stainless steel (SS2509), the basis is 190, the basis rate is 1.49%, the spot price is 12920, the futures price is 12730, and the historical quantile is 44.42% [1] - For lithium carbonate (LC2509), the basis is -7620, the basis rate is -9.46%, the spot price is 80520, the futures price is 72900, and the historical quantile is 3.74% [1] - For industrial silicon (SI2509), the basis is 375, the basis rate is 3.86%, the spot price is 10100, the futures price is 9725, and the historical quantile is 30.65% [1] Precious Metals - For gold (AU2510), the basis is -3.7, the basis rate is -0.48%, the spot price is 777.3, the futures price is 773.6, and the historical quantile is 13.50% [1] - For silver (AG2510), the basis is -20.0, the basis rate is -0.21%, the spot price is 9372.0, the futures price is 9392.0, and the historical quantile is 41.60% [1] Group 2: Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2509), the basis is -161.0, the basis rate is -5.33%, the spot price is 2860, the futures price is 3021.0, and the historical quantile is 10.40% [1] - For soybean oil (Y2509), the basis is 24.0, the basis rate is 0.81%, the spot price is 8210, the futures price is 8144.0, and the historical quantile is 5.30% [1] - For palm oil (P2509), the basis is 19.90%, the basis rate is 0.27%, the spot price is 8960, the futures price is 8936.0, and the historical quantile is 35.80% [1] - For rapeseed meal (RM509), the basis is -105.0, the basis rate is -3.93%, the spot price is 2570, the futures price is 2675.0, and the historical quantile is 20.00% [1] - For rapeseed oil (OI509), the basis is 83.0, the basis rate is 0.88%, the spot price is 9540, the futures price is 9457.0, and the historical quantile is 35.80% [1] - For corn (C2509), the basis is 49.0, the basis rate is 2.12%, the spot price is 2360, the futures price is 2311.0, and the historical quantile is 71.10% [1] - For corn starch (CS2509), the basis is 75.0, the basis rate is 2.81%, the spot price is 2740, the futures price is 2665.0, and the historical quantile is 34.40% [1] - For live pigs (H2509), the basis is -185.0, the basis rate is -1.29%, the spot price is 14200, the futures price is 14385.0, and the historical quantile is 39.50% [1] - For eggs (JD2509), the basis is -408.0, the basis rate is -11.25%, the spot price is 3220, the futures price is 3628.0, and the historical quantile is 9.40% [1] - For cotton (CF509), the basis is 1249.0, the basis rate is 8.81%, the spot price is 15419, the futures price is 14170.0, and the historical quantile is 86.10% [1] - For sugar (SR509), the basis is 244.0, the basis rate is 4.15%, the spot price is 6120, the futures price is 5876.0, and the historical quantile is 50.50% [1] Group 3: Energy and Chemicals - For paraxylene (PX509), the basis is 132.6, the basis rate is 1.88%, the spot price is 7194.6, the futures price is 7062.0, and the historical quantile is 62.70% [1] - For PTA (TA509), the basis is -31.0, the basis rate is -0.63%, the spot price is 4936.0, the futures price is 4905.0, and the historical quantile is 41.20% [1] - For ethylene glycol (EG2509), the basis is 50.0, the basis rate is 1.10%, the spot price is 4595.0, the futures price is 4545.0, and the historical quantile is 79.70% [1] - For polyester staple fiber (PF509), the basis is 49.0, the basis rate is 0.74%, the spot price is 6655.0, the futures price is 6606.0, and the historical quantile is 58.30% [1] - For styrene (EB2509), the basis is -47.0, the basis rate is -0.62%, the spot price is 7540.0, the futures price is 7587.0, and the historical quantile is 18.60% [1] - For methanol (MA509), the basis is -36.5, the basis rate is -1.45%, the spot price is 2519.0, the futures price is 2482.5, and the historical quantile is 13.40% [1] - For urea (UR509), the basis is -13.0, the basis rate is -0.72%, the spot price is 1803.0, the futures price is 1790.0, and the historical quantile is 8.70% [1] - For LLDPE (L2509), the basis is -116.0, the basis rate is -1.56%, the spot price is 7456.0, the futures price is 7340.0, and the historical quantile is 2.20% [1] - For PP (PP2509), the basis is -55.0, the basis rate is -0.76%, the spot price is 7221.0, the futures price is 7166.0, and the historical quantile is 11.40% [1] - For PVC (V2509), the basis is -283.0, the basis rate is -5.27%, the spot price is 5373.0, the futures price is 5090.0, and the historical quantile is 9.60% [1] - For caustic soda (SH209), the basis is -43.3, the basis rate is -1.64%, the spot price is 2637.0, the futures price is 2593.8, and the historical quantile is 42.30% [1] - For LPG (PG2509), the basis is 401.0, the basis rate is 9.91%, the spot price is 4448.0, the futures price is 4047.0, and the historical quantile is 57.30% [1] - For asphalt (BU2509), the basis is 170.0, the basis rate is 4.70%, the spot price is 3785.0, the futures price is 3615.0, and the historical quantile is 79.30% [1] - For butadiene rubber (BR2509), the basis is -215.0, the basis rate is -1.73%, the spot price is 12415.0, the futures price is 12200.0, and the historical quantile is 11.00% [1] - For glass (FG509), the basis is -150.0, the basis rate is -12.38%, the spot price is 1362.0, the futures price is 1212.0, and the historical quantile is 12.60% [1] - For soda ash (SA509), the basis is -10.0, the basis rate is -0.70%, the spot price is 1440.0, the futures price is 1430.0, and the historical quantile is 26.68% [1] - For natural rubber (RU2509), the basis is -235.0, the basis rate is -1.53%, the spot price is 15585.0, the futures price is 15350.0, and the historical quantile is 82.29% [1] Group 4: Financial Futures - For stock index futures: - For IF2509.CFE, the basis is -11.2, the basis rate is -0.27%, the spot price is 4127.2, the futures price is 4116.0, and the historical quantile is 34.10% [1] - For IH2509.CFE, the basis is 1.3, the basis rate is 0.05%, the spot price is 2796.8, the futures price is 2795.5, and the historical quantile is 65.30% [1] - For IC2509.CFE, the basis is -83.6, the basis rate is -1.34%, the spot price is 6299.6, the futures price is 6216.0, and the historical quantile is 4.90% [1] - For IM2509.CFE, the basis is -100.8, the basis rate is -1.53%, the spot price is 6706.6, the futures price is 6605.8, and the historical quantile is 12.40% [1] - For bond futures: - For 2 - year bond (TS2509), the basis is 0.02, the basis rate is 0.02%, the spot price is 102.33, the futures price is 100.25, and the historical quantile is 30.80% [1] - For 5 - year bond (TF2509), the basis is 0.07, the basis rate is 0.06%, the spot price is 105.59, the futures price is 100.61, and the historical quantile is 36.60% [1] - For 10 - year bond (T2509), the basis is 0.13, the basis rate is 0.12%, the spot price is 108.20, the futures price is 100.68, and the historical quantile is 31.10% [1] - For 30 - year bond (TL2509), the basis is 0.50, the basis rate is 0.42%, the spot price is 133.73, the futures price is 118.12, and the historical quantile is 74.40% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, showing that on July 25, 2025, the total positions of IF and IM decreased significantly, while those of IH and IC decreased slightly [1][5][11][17][22] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 25, the total position of the IF variety decreased by 11,192 hands, and the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 7,721 hands [5] - **Top Twenty Long Position Seats**: Among the top twenty long position seats of the IF variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 43,899 hands. Everbright Futures had the most long - position increase, with an intraday increase of 373 hands, while CITIC Futures had the most long - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 2,766 hands [6] - **Top Twenty Short Position Seats**: Among the top twenty short position seats of the IF variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 48,478 hands. Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the most short - position increase, with an intraday increase of 99 hands, and CITIC Futures had the most short - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 2,118 hands [8] IH - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 25, the total position of the IH variety decreased by 3,451 hands, and the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 2,625 hands [11] - **Top Twenty Long Position Seats**: Among the top twenty long position seats of the IH variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 11,273 hands. Everbright Futures had the most long - position increase, with an intraday increase of 340 hands, and CITIC Futures had the most long - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,001 hands [12] - **Top Twenty Short Position Seats**: Among the top twenty short position seats of the IH variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 19,640 hands. Everbright Futures had the most short - position increase, with an intraday increase of 940 hands, and CITIC Futures had the most short - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,231 hands [13] IC - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 25, the total position of the IC variety decreased by 4,233 hands, and the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 2,797 hands [17] - **Top Twenty Long Position Seats**: Among the top twenty long position seats of the IC variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 33,265 hands. Guotou Futures had the most long - position increase, with an intraday increase of 392 hands, and CITIC Futures had the most long - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,211 hands [17] - **Top Twenty Short Position Seats**: Among the top twenty short position seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 41,584 hands. Haitong Futures had the most short - position increase, with an intraday increase of 456 hands, and Dongzheng Futures had the most short - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,416 hands [18] IM - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 25, the total position of the IM variety decreased by 11,290 hands, and the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 8,546 hands [22] - **Top Twenty Long Position Seats**: Among the top twenty long position seats of the IM variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 42,332 hands. Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the most long - position increase, with an intraday increase of 1,056 hands, and Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 4,057 hands [22] - **Top Twenty Short Position Seats**: Among the top twenty short position seats of the IM variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 64,643 hands. J.P. Morgan had the most short - position increase, with an intraday increase of 536 hands, and Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 4,459 hands [24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given documents. Core Views of the Reports Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may strengthen slowly after oscillating in the 4300 - 4350 ringgit range, but may weaken after the end of the rebound. Domestic palm oil futures maintain a near - strong and far - weak pattern, and attention should be paid to whether it can stand above 9000 yuan. The US soybean oil industry's increased consumption and the expected stocking for the Indian Festival boost the palm oil and vegetable oil prices. In the short term, CBOT soybean oil may rise again. In the domestic market, the oil mills' urging for delivery may affect the spot basis quotes, but the traders' procurement cost supports the basis [1]. Sugar - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June was lower than expected. If the sugar - to - ethanol ratio is adjusted downward, Brazil's output may not meet expectations. The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but the overall trend is bearish. The domestic sugar market is expected to be marginally loose in supply and demand, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound [4]. Corn - The import auction has limited impact. The supply of corn is tight, and traders are reluctant to sell. The transportation is affected by heavy rainfall, and the demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. Wheat has a substitution advantage, but the corn price decline is limited. In the medium term, the tight supply and low imports support the corn price. In the short term, the market is quiet, and the price fluctuates narrowly [7]. Meal - The US soybeans are at the bottom, and the Brazilian soybeans are firm. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is low. The supply will remain high in the short term, but the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain. The market sentiment is suppressed, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Cotton - The downstream demand of the cotton industry is still weak, but the downstream prices are following the rise of cotton prices. The shipment of old cotton after the price increase brings some pressure, but the tight inventory problem cannot be solved before the new cotton is on the market. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate at a high level, and it will be under pressure after the new cotton is on the market [12]. Pork - The current supply and demand of the pig market are weak. The short - term pig price is not optimistic, and the spot price will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The upside of the near - month contract is limited. The far - month contract is affected by policies, and short - selling is not recommended, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [15]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the high - temperature weather affects the egg production. The demand in the peak season is starting, and the prices are expected to rise slightly and then stabilize [19]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Futures Market Conditions Palm Oil - The spot price of Jiangsu first - grade palm oil was 8360 yuan on July 24, up 0.60% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2509 was 8166 yuan, up 1.14%. The basis was 194 yuan, down 42 yuan [1]. Soybean Oil - The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree soybean oil was 9050 yuan on July 24, up 0.56%. The futures price of P2509 was 8994 yuan, up 1.22%. The basis was - 54 yuan, down 60 yuan [1]. Rapeseed Oil - The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9570 yuan on July 24, up 0.21%. The futures price of OI509 was 9492 yuan, up 0.38%. The basis was 78 yuan, down 16 yuan [1]. Sugar - The futures price of SR2601 was 2668 yuan/ton on July 24, up 0.21%. The futures price of SR2509 was 5866 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.57 cents/pound, up 1.84% [3]. Corn - The futures price of C2509 was 2318 yuan on July 24, down 0.13%. The basis was 42 yuan, up 3 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread was 80 yuan, up 6 yuan [7]. Corn Starch - The futures price of CS2509 was 2669 yuan on July 24, down 0.22%. The basis was 11 yuan, up 6 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread was 57 yuan, up 8 yuan [7]. Cotton - The futures price of CF2509 was 14160 yuan/ton on July 24, down 0.14%. The futures price of CF2601 was 14065 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ICE US cotton main contract was 68.74 cents/pound, up 0.66% [12]. Eggs - The futures price of JD09 was 3636 yuan/500KG on July 24, down 0.03%. The futures price of JD08 was 3562 yuan/500KG, down 1.41%. The basis was - 299 yuan/500KG, up 1.97% [18]. Spot Market Conditions Sugar - The spot price in Nanning was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Kunming was 5910 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) and Nanning's price was - 1590 yuan, down 1.40% [3]. Corn - The FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2360 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB price at Shekou was 2430 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. Cotton - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15431 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The CC Index of 3128B was 15563 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [12]. Eggs - The egg price in the producing area was 3.34 yuan/jin, up 0.15% [18]. Industry Conditions Sugar - The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 23.07%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.50 million tons, up 4.59% [3]. Cotton - The commercial inventory was 254.24 million tons, down 10.2%. The industrial inventory was 88.21 million tons, down 2.3%. The import volume was 3.00 million tons, down 25.0% [12]. Eggs - The price of egg - laying chicken chicks was 3.88 yuan/feather, down 0.51%. The price of culled chickens was 4.80 yuan/jin, up 4.35%. The egg - to - feed ratio was 2.25, up 6.64% [18].

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2509 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 前二十席位持仓保持稳定 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2509 | 总持仓保持稳定 | 国泰君安减仓 1000 手以上 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2509 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 中信多头减仓近 2000 手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2509 | 总持仓基本稳定 | 前二十席位增减仓不一 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 1,443.0 95.0 284.0 -598.0 2,311.0 135.0 1,553.0 35.0 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持仓变动 2025 年 7 月 25 日星期五 证监许可 ...

Group 1: Metals Ferrous Metals - The spot price of 72-silicon ferroalloy qualified block in Inner Mongolia - Tianjin warehouse receipt is 5,878, with a basis of 124 and a historical quantile of 0.03%. The futures price is 5,754 [1]. - The spot price of 65-silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia - Hubei warehouse receipt is 2,950, with a basis of 25.60%. The futures price is 5,948, and the converted price is 6,517 [1]. - The spot price of HRB400 20mm rebar in Shanghai is 3,380, with a basis of 86 and a historical quantile of 45.20%. The futures price is 3,294 [1]. - The spot price of Q235B 4.75mm hot-rolled coil in Shanghai is 3,470, with a basis of 14 and a historical quantile of 23.40%. The futures price is 3,456 [1]. - The spot price of 62.5% Brazilian blended powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port is 839, with a basis of 25.50%. The futures price is 811, and the converted price is based on the corresponding standard [1]. - The spot price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke A13, S0.7, CSR60, MT7 at Rizhao Port is 1,735, with a basis of - 11.28%. The futures price is 1,539 [1]. - The spot price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Mongolian 5) at Shaheyi is 1,199, with a basis of - 5.88%. The futures price is 1,134 [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 79,795, with a basis of - 95 and a historical quantile of 32.91%. The futures price is 79,890 [1]. - The spot price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20,720, with a basis of - 40 and a historical quantile of 39.37%. The futures price is 20,760 [1]. - The spot price of SMM alumina index is 3,427, with a basis of - 184 and a historical quantile of 6.82%. The futures price is 3,243 [1]. - The spot price of SMM 1 zinc ingot is 22,810, with a basis of - 15 and a historical quantile of 10.41%. The futures price is 23,015 [1]. - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 272,400, with a basis of 1,550 and a historical quantile of 13.75%. The futures price is 273,950 [1]. - The spot price of SMM 1 imported nickel is 124,360, with a basis of - 260 and a historical quantile of 42.29%. The futures price is 124,100 [1]. - The spot price of 304/2B:2*1240*C stainless steel from Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) is 13,070, with a basis of 135 and a historical quantile of 33.04%. The futures price is 12,935 [1]. - The spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 76,680, with a basis of - 6,130 and a historical quantile of 4.40%. The futures price is 70,550 [1]. - The spot price of SMM industrial silicon is 10,000, with a basis of 475 and a historical quantile of 35.29%. The futures price is not clearly presented in a comparable way [1]. Precious Metals - The spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold AU (T + D) is 778.7, with a basis of - 3.6 and a historical quantile of 14.30%. The futures price is 775.1 [1]. - The spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver AG (T + D) is 9,386.0, with a basis of - 35.0 and a historical quantile of 17.80%. The futures price is 9,351.0 [1]. Group 2: Agricultural Products - The spot price of common soybean meal in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang is 2,860, with a basis of - 165.0 and a historical quantile of 9.20%. The futures price is 3,025.0 [1]. - The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang is 8,200, with a basis of 34.0 and a historical quantile of 2.10%. The futures price is 8,166.0 [1]. - The spot price of palm oil at Huangpu Port is 9,104.0, with a basis of - 44.0 and a historical quantile of 8.60%. The futures price is 9,060 [1]. - The spot price of common rapeseed meal in Guangdong Zhanjiang is 2,682.0, with a basis of - 122.0 and a historical quantile of 15.20%. The futures price is 2,560 [1]. - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu Nantong is 9,540, with a basis of 48.0 and a historical quantile of 24.00%. The futures price is 9,492.0 [1]. - The spot price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2,360, with a basis of 42.0 and a historical quantile of 67.80%. The futures price is 2,318.0 [1]. - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin Changchun is 2,740, with a basis of 71.0 and a historical quantile of 32.50%. The futures price is 2,669.0 [1]. - The spot price of live pigs (outer ternary) in Henan is 14,200, with a basis of - 165.0 and a historical quantile of 39.60%. The futures price is 14,365.0 [1]. - The spot price of eggs in Hebei Shijiazhuang is 3,636.0, with a basis of - 416.0 and a historical quantile of 8.90%. The futures price is 3,220 [1]. - The spot price of cotton (3128B) in Xinjiang is 15,431, with a basis of - 1,271.0 and a historical quantile of 8.98%. The futures price is 14,160.0 [1]. - The spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station is 6,120, with a basis of 254.0 and a historical quantile of 51.90%. The futures price is 5,866.0 [1]. - The theoretical delivery price of apples is 8,600, with a basis of 631.0 and a historical quantile of 50.40%. The futures price is 7,969.0 [1]. - The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 10,515.0, with a basis of - 2,215.0 and a historical quantile of 8.60%. The futures price is 8,300 [1]. Group 3: Energy and Chemicals - The spot price of paraxylene at the Chinese main port (CFR) converted to RMB is 7,043.0, with a basis of 87.0 and a historical quantile of 52.90%. The futures price is 6,956.0 [1]. - The spot price of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in the East China region is 4,850.0, with a basis of - 30.0 and a historical quantile of 41.30%. The futures price is 4,820.0 [1]. - The spot price of ethylene glycol in the East China region is 4,540.0, with a basis of 55.0 and a historical quantile of 81.10%. The futures price is 4,485.0 [1]. - The spot price of polyester fiber in the East China market is 6,605.0, with a basis of 85.0 and a historical quantile of 66.60%. The futures price is 6,520.0 [1]. - The spot price of styrene in East China is 7,450.0, with a basis of 10.0 and a historical quantile of 28.60%. The futures price is 7,440.0 [1]. - The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,480.0, with a basis of - 17.5 and a historical quantile of 23.10%. The futures price is 2,462.5 [1]. - The spot price of urea in Shandong is 1,810.0, with a basis of 25.0 and a historical quantile of 18.70%. The futures price is 1,785.0 [1]. - The spot price of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) in Shandong is 7,385.0, with a basis of - 105.0 and a historical quantile of 2.90%. The futures price is 7,280.0 [1]. - The spot price of polypropylene (PP) in Zhejiang is 7,181.0, with a basis of - 41.0 and a historical quantile of 14.50%. The futures price is 7,140.0 [1]. - The spot price of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market is 5,238.0, with a basis of - 148.0 and a historical quantile of 38.50%. The futures price is 5,090.0 [1]. - The spot price of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in Shandong is 2,675.0, with a basis of - 81.3 and a historical quantile of 37.00%. The futures price is 2,593.8 [1]. - The spot price of liquefied petroleum gas in Guangzhou is 4,548.0, with a basis of 525.0 and a historical quantile of 69.80%. The futures price is 4,023.0 [1]. - The spot price of asphalt in Shandong is 3,785.0, with a basis of 183.0 and a historical quantile of 80.60%. The futures price is 3,602.0 [1]. - The spot price of butadiene rubber in China is 12,285.0, with a basis of - 85.0 and a historical quantile of - 0.69%. The futures price is 12,200.0 [1]. - The spot price of glass in Shahe is 1,307.0, with a basis of - 131.0 and a historical quantile of 17.85%. The futures price is 1,176.0 [1]. - The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1,408.0, with a basis of - 10.0 and a historical quantile of 26.68%. The futures price is 1,398.0 [1]. - The spot price of natural rubber in Shanghai is 15,245.0, with a basis of - 245.0 and a historical quantile of 81.66%. The futures price is 15,000.0 [1]. Group 4: Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - For IF2509.CFE, the spot price is 4,149.0, with a basis of - 7.8 and a historical quantile of 40.60%. The futures price is 4,141.2 [1]. - For IH2509.CFE, the spot price is 2,816.6, with a basis of 4.2 and a historical quantile of 80.90%. The futures price is 2,812.4 [1]. - For IC2509.CFE, the spot price is 6,293.6, with a basis of - 67.6 and a historical quantile of 9.70%. The futures price is 6,226.0 [1]. - For IM2509.CFE, the spot price is 6,701.1, with a basis of - 82.5 and a historical quantile of 15.10%. The futures price is 6,618.6 [1]. Bond Futures - For 2 - year bond (TS2509), the spot price is 102.31, with a basis of 0.00 and a historical quantile of 27.00%. The futures price is 100.23, and the conversion factor is 0.9796 [1]. - For 5 - year bond (TF2509), the spot price is 105.61, with a basis of 0.02 and a historical quantile of 30.70%. The futures price is 100.59, and the conversion factor is 0.9522 [1]. - For 10 - year bond (T2509), the spot price is 108.26, with a basis of 0.01 and a historical quantile of 17.10%. The futures price is 100.63, and the conversion factor is 0.9294 [1]. - For 30 - year bond (TL2509), the spot price is 133.85, with a basis of 0.17 and a historical quantile of 23.80%. The futures price is 118.52, and the conversion factor is 1.1279 [1].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The rise of steel is mainly policy - driven. After the confirmation of the anti - involution expectation in the coal industry on the 22nd, it is expected that ferrous metals will continue to be strong. Considering the short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant and the market sentiment has not fully fermented, it is recommended to avoid short positions and hold long positions [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some steel products have changed. For example, the price of hot - rolled coil spot in East China increased by 20 yuan/ton, while the price of hot - rolled coil spot in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The prices of different contracts of steel also showed fluctuations [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs of steel production processes such as steel billet, electric furnace, and converter have changed. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, while the profits of threaded steel in some regions increased [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.1%, the output of five major steel products decreased by 0.1%, and the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.1%. The inventory of some steel products such as threaded steel decreased, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 22.6%, the apparent demand for threaded steel increased by 5.0%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 2.6% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The 09 contract of iron ore showed a volatile downward trend. In the short - term, iron ore will oscillate. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions at high levels and adopt the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [4]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of different types of iron ore and their spreads showed small fluctuations. For example, the price of PB powder increased by 0.3%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.0% [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased, the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, and the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to decline slightly. The demand side shows high - level pig iron production, and the terminal demand is strong in the off - season [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills decreased, and the available days of inventory in 64 steel mills increased [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The coke futures rose strongly, and the spot market improved with multiple rounds of price increase expectations. The coking coal futures also rose strongly, and the spot market continued to rise. It is recommended to gradually reduce long positions of coke at high levels, adopt the strategy of going long on coke and short on iron ore for coke, and hold long positions of coking coal and gradually reduce them at high levels, and adopt the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore for coking coal [6]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of coke and coking coal and their spreads changed. For example, the price of Shanxi first - class wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) increased by 4.5% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of coke was affected by factors such as slow coal mine复产 and corporate losses, and the demand increased due to the resumption of blast furnaces. The supply of coking coal was in short supply, and the demand increased due to the high - level pig iron production [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coke decreased in some links and increased in others, showing an overall medium - level state. The inventory of coking coal decreased significantly in mines, ports, and other places, and the inventory of downstream increased [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may strengthen slowly after oscillating in the range of 4300 - 4350 ringgit, but are likely to weaken after the end - of - month market re - assesses concerns about inventory growth. Domestic palm oil futures maintain a near - strong and far - weak pattern, and attention should be paid to whether it can stand firmly above 9000 yuan after oscillating in the 9000 - 9200 range. - The USDA's increase in the industrial use of US soybean oil to more than half of consumption and the hope for Indian Diwali stocking boost the palm oil and vegetable oil markets. CBOT soybean oil may rise again in the short term. In the domestic market, the oil mills'催提 before contract execution expiration in August has a negative impact on the spot basis, but the trade - cost support and increasing demand after July will support the basis [1]. Sugar - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June decreased more than expected. If the sugar - to - ethanol ratio is adjusted downward, Brazil's output may not meet expectations. The price of raw sugar may find a short - term bottom, but the overall trend is still bearish due to the expected increase in production. In the domestic market, low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi, but the entry of refined sugar into the market and expected increase in imports will lead to a marginal loosening of supply - demand, so a bearish view is maintained after a rebound [4]. Corn - The policy auction of imported corn has limited impact. Supply - side factors such as tight remaining grain, traders' reluctance to sell, and transportation disruptions from heavy rainfall keep the number of corn - arriving vehicles low. However, low profit margins limit the willingness of deep - processing enterprises to raise prices. Demand - side factors show low deep - processing startup rates and sufficient feed - enterprise inventories. Wheat has a substitution advantage but is supported by the price - support policy, limiting the decline of corn prices. In the medium term, tight supply, low imports, and increasing aquaculture consumption will support corn prices. In the short term, the market is quiet, and the market may fluctuate narrowly [7]. Meal - US soybeans are at the bottom and may be supported by expected drought in the main production areas in August and improved trade expectations. Brazilian soybeans are firm due to high premiums, but Chinese purchase rumors of US soybeans suppress the rise of Brazilian premiums. In the domestic market, soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. Short - term supply is high, but the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, so the basis has limited downside. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [10]. Cotton - The downstream demand of the cotton industry is still weak, but the rising cotton price has led to some follow - up price increases. The inventory pressure from the sale of old cotton after the rise in Zhengzhou cotton prices is not concentrated, and the tight inventory situation is difficult to resolve before the new cotton harvest. In the short term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate at a high level, and will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [12]. Pork - The recent rise in the pork futures market is driven by capital sentiment. The current supply - demand situation is weak. Although there may be a short - term boost at the end of the month, the subsequent resumption of group - farm sales and the need to sell large pigs from small - scale farmers suggest that short - term pig prices are not optimistic. Spot prices are expected to bottom - oscillate, and the upside of the near - month 09 contract is limited. The far - month contracts are affected by policies, and caution should be exercised in trading [15]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to the high inventory of laying hens, but high - temperature weather has reduced egg weight and production rates, resulting in a tight supply of large - sized eggs. The peak - season demand for eggs has started, with increased participation from traders and food enterprises. The price of eggs is expected to rise this week, but the increase may be limited by sufficient supply and high - temperature weather [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Data Palm Oil - On July 24, the spot price of Jiangsu Grade 1 palm oil was 8360 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 8166 yuan/ton, up 1.14%. The basis was 194 yuan/ton, down 17.80%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 21,695 [1]. Soybean Oil - On July 24, the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree soybean oil was 9050 yuan/ton, up 0.56%; the futures price of P2509 was 8994 yuan/ton, up 1.22%. The basis was - 54 yuan/ton, down 1000.00%. The import cost and profit of palm oil in Guangzhou Port showed corresponding changes [1]. Rapeseed Oil - On July 24, the spot price of Jiangsu Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 9570 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the futures price of OI509 was 9492 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The basis was 78 yuan/ton, down 17.02% [1]. Sugar - On July 24, the futures price of sugar 2601 was 2668 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the futures price of 2509 was 5866 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. The basis, warehouse receipts, and other indicators also changed accordingly. In the spot market, the prices in Nanning and Kunming showed different trends, and the import prices of Brazilian sugar decreased [3]. Corn - On July 25, the futures price of corn 2509 was 2318 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. The basis, 9 - 1 spread, and other indicators changed accordingly. For corn starch, the futures price of 2509 was 2669 yuan/ton, down 0.22%, and the basis increased [7]. Meal - On July 25, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2860 yuan/ton, down 2.05%; the futures price of M2509 was 3025 yuan/ton, down 2.26%. The basis, import - crushing profit, and other indicators of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans all changed [10]. Cotton - On July 25, the futures price of cotton 2509 was 14160 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; the futures price of 2601 was 14065 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis, 9 - 1 spread, and other indicators showed corresponding changes. In the spot market, the prices of Xinjiang - delivered cotton and other indicators increased slightly [12]. Pork - On July 25, the futures price of pork 2511 was 14210 yuan/ton, down 0.63%; the futures price of 2509 was 14365 yuan/ton, down 1.54%. The basis, 9 - 11 spread, and other indicators changed accordingly. Spot prices in different regions decreased to varying degrees [15]. Eggs - On July 25, the futures price of the egg 09 contract was 3636 yuan/500KG, down 0.03%; the futures price of the 08 contract was 3562 yuan/500KG, down 1.41%. The basis, 9 - 8 spread, and other indicators changed accordingly. The prices of egg - producing areas, egg - chicken seedlings, and other related indicators also showed different trends [18]. Industry Situation Sugar - The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03% year - on - year; the cumulative national sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 23.07%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.50 million tons, up 4.59%, and the monthly sales in Guangxi decreased by 3.26%. The national and Guangxi sugar sales rates increased, and the national industrial inventory decreased by 9.56% [3]. Cotton - The commercial inventory decreased by 10.2% month - on - month, the industrial inventory decreased by 2.3%, the import volume decreased by 25.0%, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 2.7%. The yarn and fabric inventory days increased, the cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, and the processing profit of spinning enterprises decreased by 0.9%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles increased by 4.1%, and the export situation of textiles and clothing showed different trends [12]. Pork - The daily slaughter volume increased by 0.73%, the weekly white - strip pork price decreased by 1.01%, the weekly piglet and sow prices remained unchanged, the weekly average slaughter weight decreased by 0.27%, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 32.11%, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 159.05%, and the monthly inventory of breeding sows increased by 0.10% [15].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Short - term rubber prices continue to rebound due to macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the raw material supply situation after the weather in the main producing areas improves [1] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 24, the price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 2.05%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market was 50.00 Thai baht/kg, up 0.05 Thai baht/kg from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.10% [1] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 795 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 6.00%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 120 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 4.35% [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's production was 272,200 tons, up 166,500 tons from the previous month, with a monthly increase of 157.52%. In June, the domestic tire production was 102.749 million pieces, up 756,000 pieces from the previous month, with a monthly increase of 0.74% [1] - **Inventory Change**: As of July 24, the bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) was 636,383 tons, up 4,006 tons from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.63%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 36,691 tons, down 303 tons from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.82% [1] Group 2: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Recently, the sentiment of commodities has improved under the tone of anti - involution and stable growth, and commodity prices have risen significantly. In terms of fundamentals, the arrival volume at ports is expected to gradually recover this week. Currently, the log demand is in the off - season, and weak demand drags down the spot price. Under the current strong expectations, investors need to pay attention to market sentiment changes and log supply and inventory. They can consider buying on dips [6] Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 24, the 2509 log contract closed at 827.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 4.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The price of the main standard delivery item increased by 10 yuan. The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter [6] - **Supply**: In June, the port shipment volume was 1.76 million cubic meters, up 37,000 cubic meters from the previous month, with a monthly increase of 2.12%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 53, down 5 from the previous month, with a monthly decrease of 8.62% [6] - **Inventory**: As of July 18, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 3.29 million cubic meters, up 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 2.17% [6] - **Demand**: As of July 18, the daily average log delivery volume was 62,400 cubic meters, up 3,600 cubic meters from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 0.36% [6] Group 3: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View After the sharp rise in futures prices, the arbitrage window opens, and upstream enterprises have the motivation to hedge. The increase in warehouse receipts requires attention to the risk of price decline. Currently, the option volatility is high. If the volatility falls, investors can consider buying put options. They need to pay attention to risk management [7] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 24, the average price of N - type polysilicon feedstock was 46,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 44,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7] - **Futures Price and Inter - monthly Spread**: The futures main contract price opened low and moved high, rising 3,685 yuan/ton to close at 53,765 yuan/ton. The spread between PS2506 and PS2507 was - 25 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 121.74% [7] - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: The silicon wafer production was 11.20 GM, up 0.10 GM from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 0.90%. The polysilicon production was 25,500 tons, up 2,500 tons from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 10.87% [7] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The polysilicon production was 101,000 tons, up 4,900 tons from the previous month, with a monthly increase of 5.10%. The polysilicon import volume was 110 tons, up 20 tons from the previous month, with a monthly increase of 16.59% [7] - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory was 243,000 tons, down 6,000 tons from the previous month, with a monthly decrease of 2.41%. The silicon wafer inventory was 17.87 CM, up 1.85 CM from the previous month, with a monthly increase of 11.55% [7] Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Industrial silicon futures followed coking coal futures and fluctuated upward but dived in the late session. The fundamentals are weak. Although the industry profit has been repaired and the arbitrage window has opened, demand has weakened, and attention should be paid to inventory pressure. In the short term, it may still fluctuate strongly following coking coal, but the risk increases. If the prices of polysilicon and coking coal futures fall, the price will decline from the high level. Investors can try to buy put options. They need to pay attention to position control and risk management [8] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On July 24, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon was 10,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.00%. The price of Hua Le SI4210 industrial silicon was 10,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.98% [8] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The spread between 2508 and 2509 was - 60 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 200.00%. The spread between 2509 and 2510 was 55 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 31.25% [8] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon production was 300,800 tons, down 41,400 tons from the previous month, with a monthly decrease of 12.10%. The Xinjiang industrial silicon production was 167,500 tons, down 43,300 tons from the previous month, with a monthly decrease of 20.55% [8] - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory was 126,100 tons, up 2,500 tons from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 2.02%. The Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory was 29,000 tons, up 1,700 tons from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 6.23% [8] Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The market's macro - bullish sentiment continues. The market information about coal production cuts this week continues to boost the market's bullish sentiment. The supply - demand pattern of soda ash is still in obvious surplus, and the demand for soda ash has no obvious growth in the future. The glass market is currently in the off - season, and the rigid demand has certain pressure. The current market is mainly driven by sentiment, and investors should pay attention to risk avoidance [10] Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, the 2505 glass contract was 1,437 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 4.74%. The 2509 glass contract was 1,307 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 7.93% [10] - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The 2505 soda ash contract was 1,518 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 4.55%. The 2509 soda ash contract was 1,408 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 4.82% [10] - **Supply**: The soda ash operating rate was 83.02%, down 1.08 percentage points from July 18. The weekly soda ash production was 723,800 tons, down 9,000 tons from July 18 [10] - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory was 61.89 million weight boxes, down 3.049 million weight boxes from July 18, with a decrease of 4.70%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory was 1.8646 million tons, down 41,000 tons from July 18, with a decrease of 2.15% [10] - **Real Estate Data Year - on - Year**: The new construction area decreased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [10]