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农产品期货日报-20260115
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 03:09
Report on Various Commodity Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings are mentioned in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report - **Red Dates**: The 2025/26 production season of red dates presents a pattern of "loose supply and stable-to-increasing demand". Festival stockpiling shows periodic characteristics, and consumption may slightly recover under a favorable macro - environment. However, low prices have limited stimulation on demand. The stable spot - end price supports the lower limit of the futures price, but there is significant hedging pressure above, leading to low - level range - bound trading [1]. - **Apples**: In the short term, the futures market is supported by a low good - fruit rate and low inventory, and market activity increases with the approaching Spring Festival stockpiling season. In the long - term, good - quality apples are in short supply with firm prices, while farmer - produced apples with high cost - effectiveness are scarce. High prices may suppress consumption, and the price advantage of other fruits squeezes the apple market, resulting in large inventory pressure for ordinary apples. The futures market fluctuates at a high level, with the near - term prices stronger than the long - term ones [3]. - **Oils**: For palm oil, concerns about Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy and large inventory pressure in Malaysia will suppress the market. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a range - bound pattern. For soybean oil, the US - Iran relationship may affect international crude oil supply and the trend of vegetable oils. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient despite reduced factory inventory, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil will continue to fluctuate around 8000 yuan. For rapeseed oil, it was boosted by potential Iranian oil export restrictions and then fell due to Indonesia's palm oil policy and cooling macro - sentiment, maintaining a wide - range oscillation. The spot market has high - level consolidation [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: In the Northeast, there is obvious reluctance to sell, and downstream enterprises' pre - festival stockpiling supports prices. In North China, there is a strong reluctance to sell high - quality grains, and prices fluctuate narrowly. Demand - side shows low inventory in northern ports and deep - processing enterprises, while feed enterprises have sufficient inventory. Policy - driven corn auctions continue but with limited scale. Overall, the corn market has support from tight supply and downstream demand but is restricted by policy - released corn, resulting in high - level range - bound trading [7]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs has returned to a range - bound pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has significantly declined. Northern pig sales have decreased, while southern demand has dropped notably. Although there is still some second - fattening restocking locally, the overall enthusiasm is limited due to high pig prices. The market anticipates Spring Festival consumption, but with expected large - scale sales in mid - to - late January, the supply in January is relatively loose. The basis is strong, and the futures price has upward - correction momentum, but there is no obvious fundamental positive factor, so it is recommended to short after the price stabilizes [10]. - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar futures are in a weak range - bound trend. Favorable weather in Brazil has accelerated the harvest, and the rainfall in December is beneficial for the next season's cane growth. India's sugar production is strong, while Thailand's sugar - making progress is slow. Domestically, the production and sales data in Guangxi and Yunnan are a mix of positive and negative factors, in line with market expectations. With the approaching Spring Festival, trading is fair due to stockpiling demand, and enterprises mainly sell at current prices. New domestic sugar is on the market in large quantities, and sugar prices are expected to remain low - level range - bound [13][14]. - **Meals**: The USDA slightly increased the US soybean production, decreased exports, and increased the US soybean inventory, causing the market to correct. However, CBOT has strong support around 1050 cents. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are still high, and auctions suppress the market. Although the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low and there is uncertainty in the arrival schedule, there is still room for speculation on customs clearance. The downside of soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policy. The market sentiment is positive in the short term, and the futures price maintains range - bound trading [15]. - **Eggs**: The recent increase in egg prices has improved breeding profits, reducing farmers' willingness to sell laying hens and slightly decreasing the number of culled chickens. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly, but due to weather, the egg weight has increased rapidly, resulting in a significant shortage of small - and medium - sized eggs compared to large - sized eggs. The overall supply is still in an oversupply stage. Spring Festival stockpiling drives demand, but the high - price area is cautious. After the recent price increase, the market faces short - term digestion pressure, and the futures price is expected to remain low - level range - bound [17]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures are generally stable. The January USDA report shows a double - decline in US cotton production and ending stocks. The drought index in US cotton - growing areas is rising, and USDA export sales are continuously declining, with export expectations likely to be lowered. In Xinjiang, the cotton inspection progress is faster than usual, and commercial inventory is rising, showing short - term supply pressure. However, cotton enterprises have strong price - holding intentions as they have a fast de - stocking speed and reduced sales pressure. But Xinjiang textile enterprises' profits and inland textile enterprises' cash flow have been compressed, and the widening of the domestic - foreign cotton price difference may increase the competitiveness of imported cotton. Overall, short - term cotton prices may enter an adjustment phase [18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Red Dates - **Futures Prices**: The main contract (Red Dates 2605) rose from 9060 to 9130, an increase of 70 or 0.77%. Other contracts also had varying degrees of increase [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade spot prices were stable, with the special - grade price rising slightly by 0.11% [1]. - **Basis and Other Indicators**: The basis of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates to the main contract decreased by 64.71%, and the position decreased by 0.61%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly by 0.07%, while the effective forecast increased by 26.00%, and the total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts increased by 3.02% [1]. Apples - **Futures Prices**: The main contract (Apple 2605) rose from 9779 to 9934, an increase of 155 or 1.59%. The Apple 2610 contract fell by 0.67% [3]. - **Spot - Related Indicators**: The basis decreased by 9.82%, and the 5 - 10 spread increased by 17.25%. The arrival volume at several fruit wholesale markets decreased, while the futures position increased by 3.80%. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 1.73%, the factory - warehouse delivery profit decreased by 10.99%, and the on - disk profit decreased by 6.35% [3]. Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.47%, the futures price (Y2605) decreased by 0.10%, and the basis increased by 9.68%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.17% [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 0.68%, the futures price (P2605) increased by 0.62%, and the basis increased by 13.64%. The on - disk import cost decreased by 0.38%, the on - disk import profit increased by 19.74%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 20.72% [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.40%, the futures price (OI605) increased by 0.41%, and the basis increased by 0.33%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 330 [5]. - **Spreads**: There were changes in various spreads such as the inter - period spreads of different oils and the spot and futures spreads between different oils [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The Corn 2603 price decreased by 0.53%, the basis increased by 10.61%, the 3 - 7 spread decreased by 375.00%. The north - south trade profit increased by 45.45%, the import profit decreased by 1.95%, the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased by 1.37%, the position decreased by 1.56%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1.61% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The Corn Starch 2603 price decreased by 0.70%, the basis increased by 11.18%, the 3 - 7 spread decreased by 38.46%, the 03 on - disk spread between starch and corn decreased by 2.17%, the position increased by 0.26%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. Pigs - **Futures Indicators**: The main - contract basis decreased by 17.84%, the Pig 2605 contract increased by 0.74%, the Pig 2603 contract increased by 1.82%, the 3 - 5 spread increased by 33.33%, the main - contract position increased by 4.63%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in various regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan were stable [10]. - **Spot Indicators**: The sample - point slaughter volume increased by 0.13%, the weekly white - strip price increased by 6.45%, the weekly piglet price increased by 0.92%, the weekly sow price increased slightly by 0.03%, the weekly出栏 weight decreased by 0.09%, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 66.64%, the weekly purchased - breeding profit increased by 95.22%, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% [10]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The Sugar 2605 contract increased by 0.88%, the Sugar 2609 contract increased by 0.72%, the ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 0.13%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 61.54%, the main - contract position decreased by 0.23%, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 2.53%, and the effective forecast decreased by 11.60% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning increased by 0.19%, the price in Kunming remained unchanged, the Nanning basis decreased by 33.64%, the Kunming basis decreased by 200.00%, the price of Brazilian imported sugar (within quota) increased by 0.27%, and the price (outside quota) increased by 0.29% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production and sales decreased year - on - year, the national and Guangxi sugar sales rates decreased, the national industrial inventory increased, the Guangxi industrial inventory decreased, and the sugar import volume decreased by 16.98% [13]. Meals - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.64%, the futures price (M2605) decreased by 0.36%, the basis decreased by 2.64%, the on - disk import crushing profit for Brazilian February shipments decreased by 13.1%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 19.7% [15]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.84%, the futures price (RM2605) decreased by 1.08%, the basis increased by 6.58%, the on - disk import crushing profit for Canadian March shipments decreased by 21.51%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [15]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean - one contract decreased by 0.14%, the basis increased by 1.82%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean - two contract decreased by 0.54%, the basis increased by 4.15%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.05% [15]. - **Spreads**: There were changes in various spreads such as inter - period spreads and cross - commodity spreads [15]. Eggs - **Futures Prices**: The Egg 03 contract increased by 0.57%, and the Egg 04 contract remained unchanged [17]. - **Spot - Related Indicators**: The egg - producing area price increased by 0.40%, the basis decreased by 0.72%, the 3 - 4 spread increased by 5.99%. The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings increased by 3.57%, the price of culled chickens increased by 3.29%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 3.42%, and the breeding profit increased by 18.01% [17]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The Cotton 2605 contract increased by 0.34%, the Cotton 2609 contract increased by 0.10%, the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.02%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 22.58%, the main - contract position increased by 0.62%, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 5.07%, and the effective forecast decreased by 5.57% [18]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 1.40%, the CC Index: 3128B increased by 1.18%, the FC Index: M: 1% remained unchanged, and the basis of 3128B to the 05 and 09 contracts increased [18]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory increased by 23.5%, the industrial inventory decreased by 0.2%, the import volume increased by 33.3%, the bonded - area inventory decreased by 15.8%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 4.6%, the spinning enterprise C32s immediate processing profit decreased by 10.0%, the monthly year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textile products decreased by 44.4%, the monthly year - on - year growth rate of textile yarn, fabric, and product exports decreased by 530.5%, and the export volume of clothing and clothing accessories increased by 15.7% [18].
广发期货日评-20260115
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 02:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market has high trading enthusiasm, with high - volume trading followed by a decline, large intraday fluctuations, and a limited callback range. The bond market is in a short - term shock situation. Gold and silver are affected by different factors, and various commodity futures such as metals, energy, and agricultural products have different trends and corresponding operation suggestions [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selected Views - Tin and plastic (SM2603) and coking coal (JM2605) are expected to be oscillating strongly, while live pigs (LH2603) are expected to move within a range [3] 3.2 Full - Variety Daily Reviews 3.2.1 Stock Index - A - shares are oscillating at a high level with increased intraday fluctuations. It's recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate IH with relatively weak previous gains. For small - and medium - cap indexes, use bull - spread strategies and prevent risks from large fluctuations [3] 3.2.2 Treasury Bonds - After previous adjustments, the bond market has eased long - bond selling pressure. With the stock market's rational return, the bond market has returned to a "slow - bull" state. However, due to uncertain economic performance and supply pressure, it's in a short - term shock situation, and the unilateral strategy is to continue waiting and seeing [3] 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold can hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average and sell out - of - the - money put options. Silver is recommended to lock in profits at high prices. Platinum can be bought at a low position near the 20 - day moving average [3] 3.2.4 Shipping and Metals - The container shipping market is oscillating up, while steel prices are oscillating. Iron ore is in wide - range oscillation. Coking coal and coke can be bought at a low position, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke can be adopted. For other metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., there are corresponding operation suggestions based on their price trends and market conditions [3] 3.2.5 New Energy - Industrial silicon futures are oscillating strongly, polysilicon futures are oscillating, lithium carbonate is in wide - range adjustment, and PX and PTA are under pressure to rebound with corresponding trading strategies [3] 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Different energy and chemical products such as LLDPE, PP, MA, etc., have different price trends and operation suggestions, including partial profit - taking, holding positions, and waiting and seeing [3] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products - Agricultural products such as soybeans, live pigs, and grains have different price trends. For example, soybean meal is oscillating, live pigs are moving within a range, and corn is at a high - level operation, with corresponding trading strategies [3]
贵金属期现日报-20260115
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 02:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term impact of news on the precious metals market is weakening. The market will maintain a relatively strong and volatile downward trend. Gold longs above the 20 - day moving average can continue to hold, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold to earn time value [1] - For silver, due to the intensifying global inventory shortage and large - scale spot holding by institutional long - position funds through ETFs and physical delivery, the price is expected to move upward. However, rising raw material costs may suppress industrial demand. In the short - term, with high volatility risks, long - position holders are advised to lock in profits at high prices [1] - Platinum and palladium are relatively undervalued compared to gold. With a strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals, their value is expected to be reshaped by capital in the medium - to - long - term, and they are expected to continue to rise in a volatile manner. In the short - term, market speculative sentiment has weakened, and the price fluctuation has narrowed, but they still follow the relatively strong trend of gold. Platinum is recommended to be lightly bought at dips near the 20 - day moving average [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - The AU2602 contract closed at 1040.62 yuan/gram on January 14, up 1.31% from the previous day [1] - The AG2604 contract closed at 22763 yuan/kilogram on January 14, up 8.37% from the previous day [1] - The PT2606 contract closed at 630.65 yuan/gram on January 14, up 4.23% from the previous day [1] - The PD2606 contract closed at 495.50 yuan/gram on January 14, up 2.53% from the previous day [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4633.90 on January 14, up 0.86% from the previous day [1] - The COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 93.19 on January 14, up 7.28% from the previous day [1] - The NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2402.70 dollars/ounce on January 14, up 2.77% from the previous day [1] - The NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1882.50 on January 14, down 0.24% from the previous day [1] Spot Prices - The London gold price was 4626.10 on January 14, up 0.88% from the previous day [1] - The London silver price was 93.00 on January 14, up 7.00% from the previous day [1] - The spot platinum price was 2397.00 dollars/ounce on January 14, up 0.38% from the previous day [1] - The spot palladium price was 1814.50 on January 14, down 3.64% from the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D closed at 1037.61 yuan/gram on January 14, up 1.18% from the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D closed at 22765 yuan/kilogram on January 14, up 8.16% from the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was priced at 613 yuan/gram on January 14, down 2.21% from the previous day [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 3.01 on January 14, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 46.10% [1] - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was 2 on January 14, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 60.60% [1] - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 7.80 on January 14, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 81.10% [1] - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.18 on January 14, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 52.00% [1] Bid - Ask Ratios - The COMEX gold/silver ratio was 49.73 on January 14, down 5.99% from the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio was 45.72 on January 14, down 6.52% from the previous day [1] - The NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.28 on January 14, up 3.01% from the previous day [1] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.27 on January 14, up 1.65% from the previous day [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.15 on January 14, down 0.7% from the previous day [1] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.51 on January 14, down 0.6% from the previous day [1] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield data was not provided [1] - The US dollar index was 99.08 on January 14, down 0.11% from the previous day [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9712 on January 14, down 0.04% from the previous day [1] Inventory and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 100152 on January 14, up 1.90% from the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 628696 kilograms on January 14, down 0.22% from the previous day [1] - The COMEX gold inventory was 434360443 on January 14, down 0.30% from the previous day [1] - The COMEX silver inventory was 435671453 on January 14, down 0.30% from the previous day [1] - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19282815 on January 14, up 0.17% from the previous day [1] - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 122991367 on January 14, down 0.41% from the previous day [1] - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1074 on January 14, with no change from the previous day [1] - The SLV silver ETF position was 16242 on January 14, down 0.48% from the previous day [1]
全品种价差日报-20260115
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 02:09
| 留注 | 品种/合约 | 期货价格 | 基差率 | 历史分位数 | 现货价格 | 星差 | 现货参考 | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 0.07% | 38 | 硅铁 (SF603) | 5/28 | 59.50% | 5690 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1.69% | 100 | 6020 | 硅罐 (SM603) | 5920 | 45.70% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 4.36% | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 3300 | 138 | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) | 3162 | 59.00% | | | | | | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | -36 | -1.09% | 3270 | 3306 | 热卷(HC2605) | 6.70% | 64 | 7.75% | 铁矿石 (12605) | 49.40% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉 ...
原木期货日报-20260115
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 02:08
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current log market has weak supply and demand, with spot prices at a low level. In the Jiangsu region, due to low inventory, some specifications of spot goods are in short supply and prices have increased. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and the expected decrease in later shipments. However, the demand remains weak, and the upward adjustment space is limited. Overall, there are insufficient contradictions, and the upward and downward driving forces are limited. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate within a range [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices - On January 14, 2026, the prices of log futures contracts showed different trends. The log 2603 contract closed at 779.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 5 yuan/cubic meter or 0.65% compared to the previous day; the log 2605 contract closed at 789.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 3 yuan/cubic meter or 0.38%; the log 2607 contract closed at 800.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 2 yuan/cubic meter or 0.25%. The log 2601 contract remained unchanged at 770.0 yuan/cubic meter. The basis of the main contract was -39.5, down 5 from the previous day [1]. - Among the spot prices, the prices of most types of logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged, except for the 4A small radiata pine in Taicang Port, which increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 680 yuan/cubic meter, with a growth rate of 1.49%. The CFR prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged at 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter and 124 euros/JAS cubic meter respectively [1]. 2. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 15, 2026, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.970, down 0.004 from the previous day, with a change rate of 0%. The import theoretical cost was 755.07 yuan, down 0.48 yuan from the previous day, with a change rate of 0% [1]. 3. Supply: Monthly - As of December 31, the port back - haul volume was 191.4 ten thousand cubic meters, up 2.2 ten thousand cubic meters or 1.16% from November 30. The number of ships in the rock port was 52.0, up 3.0 or 6.12% from the previous period [1]. 4. Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 9, the domestic coniferous log total inventory was 269 ten thousand cubic meters, an increase of 2 ten thousand cubic meters compared to January 2, with a growth rate of 0.75%. In Shandong, the inventory was 196.00 ten thousand cubic meters, an increase of 1.0 ten thousand cubic meters or 0.51% [1]. 5. Demand: Daily Average Out - bound Volume (Weekly) - As of January 9, the daily average out - bound volume of logs in China was 5.75 ten thousand cubic meters, an increase of 0.1 ten thousand cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a growth rate of 2%. In Shandong, it was 2.79 ten thousand cubic meters, a decrease of 0.10 ten thousand cubic meters or 3%. In Jiangsu, it was 2.35 ten thousand cubic meters, an increase of 0.18 ten thousand cubic meters or 8% [2]. 6. Forecast of Arrival Ships - From January 12 - 18, 2026, 15 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 ships compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 67%. The total arrival volume is about 48.6 ten thousand cubic meters, an increase of 18.1 ten thousand cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 59% [2].
股指期货持仓日度跟踪-20260115
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 02:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View The report provides a daily tracking of the holdings of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. It details the changes in total holdings, main - contract holdings, and the positions of the top 20 long and short seats for each type of futures on January 14, 2026 [1][4][10]. 3. Summary by Variety IF (CSI 300) - **Total and Main - Contract Holdings**: On January 14, the total holdings of the IF variety increased by 12,419 lots, and the holdings of the main contract 2603 increased by 11,113 lots [4]. - **Top 20 Long Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total of 52,320 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 1,738 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,847 lots [5]. - **Top 20 Short Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total of 47,468 lots. GF Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 2,190 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 260 lots [7]. IH (SSE 50) - **Total and Main - Contract Holdings**: On January 14, the total holdings of the IH variety increased by 3,997 lots, and the holdings of the main contract 2603 increased by 2,663 lots [10]. - **Top 20 Long Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total of 11,412 lots. GF Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 754 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 956 lots [11]. - **Top 20 Short Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total of 14,899 lots. GF Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 1,285 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,578 lots [12]. IC (CSI 500) - **Total and Main - Contract Holdings**: On January 14, the total holdings of the IC variety increased by 13,386 lots, and the holdings of the main contract 2603 increased by 4,547 lots [16]. - **Top 20 Long Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total of 52,809 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 2,373 lots, while Yong'an Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 674 lots [17]. - **Top 20 Short Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total of 59,520 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 3,016 lots, while J.P. Morgan Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 744 lots [19]. IM (CSI 1000) - **Total and Main - Contract Holdings**: On January 14, the total holdings of the IM variety increased by 13,386 lots, and the holdings of the main contract 2603 increased by 4,547 lots [22]. - **Top 20 Long Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total of 62,629 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, with an intraday increase of 2,706 lots, while Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,438 lots [23]. - **Top 20 Short Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total of 80,289 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, with an intraday increase of 2,579 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,430 lots [24].
《农产品》日报-20260115
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 01:59
Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views Red Dates - The 2025/26 production season of red dates presents a pattern of "loose supply and stable-to-rising demand". Festival stocking shows periodic characteristics, and consumption may slightly recover under favorable macro - environment. However, low prices have limited stimulus on demand, and explosive growth is unlikely. The stable spot price supports the lower end of the futures price, while the hedging pressure above the futures price is relatively large, and the price oscillates in a low - level range [1]. Apples - In the short term, the futures price is supported by the low good - fruit rate and low inventory. With the approaching of the Spring Festival stocking season, market activity has increased. In the long - term, good - quality apples are in short supply with firm prices, while farmer - sourced apples with high cost - performance are scarce. High prices may suppress consumption, and the price advantage of other fruits (such as citrus) squeezes the apple market, resulting in large inventory pressure for ordinary apples. The futures market oscillates at a high level, with the near - term contracts stronger than the far - term ones [3]. Oils - Palm oil: Concerns about Indonesia's temporary non - implementation of the B50 biodiesel policy and large inventory pressure in Malaysia may suppress the market. In China, the Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a volatile consolidation trend. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively stand above 8750 yuan. - Soybean oil: The relationship between the US and Iran may affect international crude oil supply and the trend of vegetable oils as biodiesel raw materials. In China, factory soybean oil inventory has decreased, but the supply of soybeans is not short with the successful auction of 114,000 tons of soybeans by CGC. The long and short factors coexist, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil will continue to oscillate around 8000 yuan in the short term. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the possible obstruction of Iran's crude oil exports and the nearly 3% jump in US crude oil, the rapeseed oil market reached the 900 - yuan mark in the morning. In the afternoon, it fell back to around 8900 yuan due to Indonesia's decision to raise the palm oil export tax and maintain the B40 policy. The overall market maintains a wide - range oscillation pattern. The upcoming Sino - Canadian talks make the rapeseed market cautious, with significant intraday fluctuations [5]. Corn - In the Northeast, the reluctant - to - sell sentiment is obvious, and the supply volume has no significant change. Downstream enterprises have started pre - holiday stocking, supporting the price to run strongly. In North China, the reluctance to sell high - quality grains is strong, and the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants remains low, with prices oscillating in a narrow range. On the demand side, the inventory at northern ports is low without obvious accumulation, deep - processing enterprises (especially in the Northeast) have low inventory and high stocking willingness, while feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and mainly replenish stocks on a rolling basis. On the policy side, the directional auction of imported corn and the competitive sales of corn continue, but the scale is limited and the auctions are highly successful. Overall, the tight supply of corn and the downstream's rigid demand for stocking strongly support the price, but the gradual release of policy - related corn also limits the price increase, and the market maintains a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the change in farmers' selling mentality and policy release [7]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs has returned to an oscillating pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has significantly declined. The supply in the North has decreased, while the demand in the South has declined significantly, with limited purchasing power, suppressing the spot price. Recently, there has been some second - fattening replenishment in some areas, but the overall enthusiasm is limited due to the current high pig prices. The market is betting on the pre - Spring Festival consumption, but it is expected that there will be a large - scale supply in mid - to - late January, with an expected increase in the supply from large - scale farms. Currently, the basis is strong, and the futures price has the impetus to repair upwards, but there is no obvious positive factor in the fundamentals. It is recommended to short at high levels after the market stabilizes [10]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are falling. Favorable weather in Brazil has accelerated the harvesting progress, and the rainfall in the central - southern region since December is beneficial to the growth of sugarcane in the 2026/27 season, with the initial forecast of a 3% increase in the sugarcane yield per unit area. In India, the production is strong, while in Thailand, the sugar - making season progress is slow due to government bans on burning sugarcane and holiday shutdowns, resulting in a year - on - year decrease in sugar production. The raw sugar price is expected to oscillate weakly within a range. In China, the production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan are mixed, generally in line with market expectations. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, trading is good due to stocking demand, and enterprises mainly sell at appropriate prices. With the concentrated listing of new sugar, market participants are generally cautious, and the sugar price is expected to oscillate at a low level [13][14]. Meal Products - The USDA slightly increased the US soybean production and decreased the exports, leading to an increase in US soybean inventory and a correction in the market. In the short term, the CBOT main contract has strong support around 1050 cents, and the downward space is limited. In China, the speed of soybean purchases is fast, and the continuous supply of US soybeans and reserve auctions has maintained a loose spot market. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal remains at a high level, and auctions also suppress the market. The premium of auction transactions is small, and the market is resistant to high prices. However, the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low, and there is still speculation about customs clearance. The downward space of soybean meal is limited, and the upper limit is mainly affected by the policy. In the short term, the market sentiment is positive, and the futures price oscillates [15]. Eggs - The recent increase in egg prices has improved the breeding profitability, reducing the farmers' willingness to sell laying hens. The number of newly - laying hens has slightly increased, but due to the impact of weather, the egg weight has increased rapidly, resulting in a significant shortage of small - and medium - sized eggs compared to large - sized eggs. The market shows a structural differentiation. Considering factors such as increased production capacity and reduced culling, the overall supply is still in an oversupply stage. The demand is strongly supported by Spring Festival stocking, with increased procurement in all sectors, and the internal sales in production areas are strong, but transactions in high - price areas are cautious. According to the latest survey data, on January 14, 2026, the production - link inventory in China decreased by 17.78% to 0.37 days, and the circulation - link inventory decreased by 7.94% to 0.58 days. The Spring Festival stocking will continue to drive market demand. However, after the recent price increase, the market faces short - term digestion pressure, and there is a possibility of a slight price correction. Overall, the futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are generally stable. The January USDA report shows that the 2025/26 US cotton supply - demand table in January has a double - decline in production and ending inventory compared to the December report. The drought index in US cotton - growing areas continues to rise, in line with the winter weak La Nina weather, but it is still early for sowing and remains to be observed. USDA export sales have been continuously declining, and export expectations may be lowered. It is expected that US cotton will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. The public inspection of Xinjiang cotton is progressing faster than previous years, and the commercial inventory is continuously increasing, showing short - term supply pressure. However, cotton enterprises have a strong willingness to hold prices as the inventory reduction speed is fast and the sales pressure is significantly reduced. However, the profits of Xinjiang textile enterprises and the cash flow of inland textile enterprises have been compressed to a low level, the positive factors in the industrial fundamentals have been fully priced in, and the widening of the domestic - foreign cotton price difference will gradually make it possible to import cotton with a 40% tariff. The negative factors for Zhengzhou cotton are gradually increasing, but overall, the short - term cotton price may enter an adjustment phase [18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Red Dates - Futures prices: The main contract (red dates 2605) closed at 9130 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan or 0.77% from the previous day. Other contracts also showed different degrees of increase [1]. - Spot prices: The price of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates was 9500 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.11% [1]. - Basis: The basis of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates against the main contract was - 230 yuan/ton, a significant change [1]. - Inventory: The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 3483, up 102 or 3.02% [1]. Apples - Futures prices: The main contract (apple 2605) closed at 9934 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan or 1.59% from the previous day [3]. - Market arrivals: The arrivals at several fruit wholesale markets decreased, such as the Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market with a 14.29% decrease [3]. - Inventory: The national cold - storage inventory was 720.90 million tons, down 12.66 million tons or 1.73% [3]. Oils - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8530 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 0.47%. The Y2605 futures price was 7986 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or - 0.10%. The basis was 544 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan or 9.68% [5]. - Palm oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8858 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.68%. The P2605 futures price was 8778 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan or 0.62%. The basis was 50 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 13.64% [5]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9940 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 0.40%. The OI605 futures price was 9017 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan or 0.41%. The basis was 923 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.33% [5]. Corn - Futures prices: The corn 2603 contract closed at 2272 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or - 0.53% [7]. - Spot prices: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2345 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.21% [7]. - Inventory: The number of warehouse receipts was 38762, up 614 or 1.61% [7]. Pigs - Futures prices: The main contract (pigs 2605) closed at 12260 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.74% [10]. - Spot prices: The price in Henan was 13000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [10]. - Inventory: The number of warehouse receipts was 855, remaining unchanged [10]. Sugar - Futures prices: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5299 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan or 0.88% [13]. - Spot prices: The price in Nanning was 5370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.19% [13]. - Inventory: The industrial inventory in the country was 211 million tons, up 20.6 million tons or 10.82% [13]. Meal Products - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3120 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 0.64%. The M2605 futures price was 2751 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 0.36% [15]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2370 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 0.84%. The RM2605 futures price was 2289 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or - 1.08% [15]. Eggs - Futures prices: The egg 03 contract closed at 3007 yuan/500KG, up 17 yuan or 0.57% [17]. - Spot prices: The price in the egg - producing areas was 3.46 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan or 0.40% [17]. - Breeding data: The egg - to - feed ratio was 2.34, up 0.08 or 3.42%, and the breeding profit was - 21.81 yuan/feather, up 4.79 yuan or 18.01% [17]. Cotton - Futures prices: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 14810 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.34% [18]. - Spot prices: The arrival price of Xinjiang's 3128B cotton at the factory was 15500 yuan/ton, up 217 yuan or 1.40% [18]. - Inventory: The commercial inventory was 578.47 million tons, up 110.11 million tons or 23.5% [18].
《黑色》日报-20260115
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 01:58
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel exports are expected to remain high due to low valuations and some export - grabbing factors. Before the Spring Festival, the domestic market is weak, and prices have fully priced in weak demand. The overall steel market is expected to fluctuate within a range in January. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan; for hot - rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market will gradually transition to a situation of weak supply and demand. Prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with high inventory suppressing the upside and steel mill restocking expectations and molten iron production recovery providing support. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and the trading strategy is range - bound operation, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the futures market has fallen in advance, and the spot price decline depends on the coking coal price drop. After the fourth round of spot price cuts, some coke enterprises resist price cuts and limit production to protect prices. The recommended strategy is to go long on the dips and consider the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand drives the market. The strategy is also to go long on the dips and consider the same arbitrage [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, and production has reached a historically low level. Demand has some support, and costs also provide support. It is recommended to go long on the dips, with a reference support level of around 5500. For ferromanganese, the supply is at a historically neutral - low level, and demand has support. Manganese ore prices support the ferromanganese price. It is recommended to go long on the dips, with a reference support level of around 5800 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices show different changes. For example, rebar 01 contract increased by 10 yuan, while hot - rolled coil 01 contract decreased by 49 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of steelmaking in Jiangsu increased, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased [1]. Supply - The daily average molten iron output increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase [1]. Demand - The total apparent demand of steel has recovered. The export of steel remains high [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. Rebar inventory increased, while hot - rolled coil inventory decreased [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The basis of some iron ore varieties decreased, and the 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 164.0 to 2920.4, a 5.9% increase, while the global shipment volume decreased by 32.8 to 3213.7, a 1.0% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The 45 - port daily average ore - unloading volume decreased by 1.9 to 323.3, a 0.6% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 304.4 to 16275.26, a 1.9% increase, and the inventory of 247 steel mills' imported ore increased by 43.0 to 8989.6, a 0.5% increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices changed slightly. For example, the coke 05 contract decreased by 7 yuan, and the coking coal 05 contract increased by 6 yuan [6]. Supply - Coke production increased slightly, and coking coal production showed a small - scale recovery [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased, and the demand for coke and coking coal increased [6]. Inventory - The overall inventory of coke and coking coal increased slightly, with different inventory changes in different sectors [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices were relatively stable. The prices of some spot products remained unchanged [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in some regions increased slightly, and the production profit decreased [7]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production was basically flat, and ferromanganese production decreased slightly [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese from the steelmaking industry had some support due to the recovery of molten iron production [7]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon in 60 sample enterprises increased, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased [7].
《金融》日报-20260115
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 01:58
| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月15日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | | 85,60% | F期现价差 | -1.93 | 0.50 | 58.50% | H期配分去 | 1.93 | -2.74 | 77.00% | 67.50% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | -29.90 | -17,82 | 73.70% | 40,90% | IM期现价差 | -101.17 | 2.88 | 70.00% | 16.80% | 97.10% | 次月-当月 | 2.60 | 5.80 | 65.90% | | | 10.00 | 99.50% | 64.30% ...
《能源化工》日报-20260115
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 01:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE: Supply is expected to increase marginally, and demand enters the seasonal off - season with weakening downstream开工率. There is a positive feedback in the spot market, and the sustainability of demand should be monitored [1]. - PP: Both supply and demand are weak. There are many maintenance plans, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in January. The balance has improved significantly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans [1]. Methanol Industry - The methanol futures are oscillating strongly. The inland price is expected to oscillate, and the port price is restricted by factors such as low MTO profits and potential maintenance of MTO devices [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, but it is driven by the strong performance of styrene and oil prices. The short - term trend is strong. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 unilaterally and narrow the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. - Styrene: The short - term supply - demand is tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to look for shorting opportunities for EB03 and narrow the EB processing fee when it is high [5]. Natural Rubber Industry - The rubber price is expected to oscillate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500. The raw material price provides support at the lower end, and the weak demand suppresses the upper end. Attention should be paid to the raw material output in Thailand [6]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the production load adjustment and inventory situation of soda ash plants [9]. - Glass: The price is expected to continue to weaken in the short term and can be treated bearishly [9]. Crude Oil Industry - The oil price is generally strong due to the instability in Iran, but the increase is limited by the weak supply - demand expectation. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the Middle East situation [11]. LPG Industry No specific views provided in the report other than price and inventory data. Polyester Industry - PX: The short - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival, and the mid - term can be treated bullishly at low levels. It is recommended to do a long - short spread for PX5 - 9 at a low level [16]. - PTA: The short - term price is expected to oscillate between 5,000 - 5,300, and the mid - term can be treated bullishly at low levels. It is recommended to do a long - short spread for TA5 - 9 at a low level [16]. - MEG: The price is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at around 4,000 for EG2605, do a short - long spread for EG5 - 9 at a high level, and sell out - of - the - money call options EG2605 - C - 4100 at a high level [16]. - Short fiber: The price is driven by raw materials in the short term. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA unilaterally and narrow the PF processing fee when it is high [16]. - Bottle chips: The price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost side. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA unilaterally [16]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The price is expected to be stable and weak. Attention should be paid to the procurement volume of the main downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [18]. - PVC: The fundamentals are still under pressure, but the short - term price fluctuates emotionally. It is recommended to wait and see for short positions [18]. Urea Industry - The urea price is expected to be strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of downstream agricultural demand and the resumption rhythm of devices [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as L59, PP59, and LP05 [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 11.41%, and PP trader inventory decreased by 5.28% [1]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased by 0.52%, and PP装置开工率 decreased by 1.65% [1]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as MA59 and regional spreads [3]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.73%, and port inventory decreased by 6.63% [3]. - **开工率**: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 increased by 0.54%, and some downstream device开工率 decreased [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as EB - BZ [5]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene port inventory reached a record high, and the styrene port inventory decreased significantly [5]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of some pure benzene and styrene downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot price of natural rubber increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as the 9 - 1 spread [6]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased by 3.62%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 1.74% [6]. - **Production and开工率**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries decreased in November, and the开工率 of automobile tires changed [6]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass and soda ash were generally stable, and there were changes in futures prices and spreads [9]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 5.69%, and the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 4.25% [9]. - **Supply and开工率**: The开工率 and supply of soda ash remained at a high level, and the glass melting volume and产能利用率 decreased slightly [9]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as Brent - WTI [11]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD increased, and there were changes in cracking spreads [11]. LPG Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The LPG futures prices changed slightly, and the spot price increased. There were changes in various spreads such as PG02 - 03 [14]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.94%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.41% [14]. - **开工率**: The upstream main refinery开工率 increased by 2.49%, and the downstream PDH开工率 increased by 0.68% [14]. Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products changed, and there were changes in various spreads such as PX - naphtha [16]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory increased [16]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of PX, PTA, and polyester products changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [16]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda decreased slightly, and there were changes in various spreads such as V2605 - V2601 [18]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda and PVC increased [18]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [18]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The urea futures price increased, and the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. There were changes in various spreads and basis [19]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.53%, and the port inventory remained unchanged [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the agricultural demand in some regions increased [19].