| 品种/合约 | 现货价格 | 期货价格 | 基差 | 基差率 | 历史分位数 | 现货参考 | 留注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 (SF603) | 5698 | 5620 | 78 | 1139% | 65.60% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | | | 硅锰(SM603) | 2950 | 5836 | 114 | 1195% | 48.10% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | | | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) | 3230 | 3009 | 131 | 4.23% | 57.40% | HRB40020mm:上海 | | | 热卷(HC2605) | 3260 | 3265 | -5 | -0.15% | 17.10% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | | | 铁矿石 (12605) | 832 | 778 | 54 | 7.01% | 43.70% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | | | 焦炭 (J2605) | 1734 | 1715 | 1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot market is firm with rising prices due to increased pre - holiday construction site stocking demand, more factory orders, and active hedging by futures - cash traders, leading to strong reluctance among traders to sell. The 03 contract's valuation is being repaired due to low inventory and expected reduced future shipments. However, with the approaching Spring Festival, spot market trading activity is expected to decline, and demand remains weak. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach at current prices [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the prices of log futures contracts (LG2603, LG2605, LG2607) increased, with LG2603 at 801.0, up 6.0 (0.75%) from the previous day; LG2605 at 802.0, up 6.0 (0.75%); LG2607 at 806.5, up 2.0 (0.25%). The主力合约基差 was - 51.0, down 6.0 from the previous day. Most spot prices of different types of logs at ports remained unchanged [2] - The latest round of FOB quotes showed that the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine increased by 3 to 113 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, while the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained at 125 euros per JAS cubic meter [2] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On February 4, 2026, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 6.934. The import theoretical cost was 771.23 yuan, up 19.89 (3%) from the previous day [2] Supply: Monthly - In December 2025, the port shipping volume was 109.5 million cubic meters, a decrease of 94.5 million cubic meters (- 46.32%) compared to November. The number of ships at the port from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased from 55.0 to 29.0, a decrease of 26.0 (- 47.27%) [2] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 30, 2026, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 242 million cubic meters, a decrease of 7 million cubic meters (- 2.81%) compared to the previous week. In Shandong, the inventory was 177.10 million cubic meters, a decrease of 11.7 million cubic meters (- 6.20%); in Jiangsu, it was 40.76 million cubic meters, an increase of 7.8 million cubic meters (23.63%) [2] Demand: Daily Average Out - bound Volume - As of January 30, 2026, the daily average out - bound volume of logs was 6.17 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.01 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. In Shandong, it was 3.89 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.28 million cubic meters (8%); in Jiangsu, it was 1.59 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.35 million cubic meters (- 18%) [3] Ship Arrival Forecast - From February 2 - 8, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 5, a decrease of 2 from the previous week (a 29% week - on - week decrease), and the total arrival volume was about 18.5 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.3 million cubic meters (a 15% week - on - week decrease) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Zinc - Overseas monetary policy tightening expectations put pressure on market risk appetite, and spot trading improvement is limited. Zinc prices oscillated and adjusted. The shortage of zinc ore supports prices, but the high zinc prices suppress demand. The overall fundamentals are good, and the downside space of zinc prices may be limited. Pay attention to the changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory [2]. Copper - The expectation of copper storage at home and abroad is strengthened, and copper prices stabilized and rebounded. The short - term supply of copper ore is tight, and the demand has recovered. The medium - and long - term logic remains unchanged, and the bottom center of copper prices is expected to rise gradually. In the short term, with the narrowing of CL premium, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing [5]. Tin - The short - term tin prices are easily affected by market sentiment and may fluctuate sharply. In the medium and long term, although the supply side is gradually recovering, considering the low elasticity of supply and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy for tin prices is recommended [7]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to continue to fluctuate widely around the industry cost line. Aluminum prices have experienced an emotional surge, but they have deviated from fundamental support. It is recommended to gradually make long positions after the price stabilizes and the volatility decreases [9]. Nickel - Recent macro - sentiment and ore - end expectations affect the overall fluctuation rhythm of nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to adjust in a wide range. Pay attention to the range of 130,000 - 140,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel mainly follows the macro - sentiment. The cost support still exists, but the supply contraction due to steel mill production cuts, the weak demand boost in the off - season, and inventory digestion are still insufficient. It is expected to adjust weakly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in production and demand [15]. Polysilicon - Production enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices. Polysilicon prices are expected to stabilize and oscillate. Pay attention to the post - Spring Festival production reduction and downstream demand recovery [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price of aluminum alloy is expected to continue to oscillate in the high - level range. Pay attention to the actual circulation of scrap aluminum, the change of import window, and the final strength and rhythm of downstream inventory preparation before the Spring Festival [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The trading logic of lithium carbonate has switched, and the macro impact is greater. The price center has a certain constraint on the downward adjustment space. It is expected to adjust in a wide range in the short term [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.32% to 25,050 yuan/ton. The import loss was 2,677 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread changed [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the refined zinc output was 560,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%. The开工 rate of zinc - related processing industries decreased, and the social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased by 7.62% week - on - week [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.86% to 101,320 yuan/ton. The import loss was 236 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread changed [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1793 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. The开工 rate of copper - related processing industries and inventory data changed [5]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.76% to 381,900 yuan/ton. The import loss and monthly spread changed [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In December, the import of tin ore remained unchanged, and the production and export of refined tin, as well as the开工 rate of related industries, changed [7]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF and social inventories increased, while SHEF (daily) and LME inventories decreased [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.73% to 23,290 yuan/ton. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum and the monthly spread changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the alumina output decreased by 1.78%, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 0.47%. The开工 rate of aluminum - related processing industries decreased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.82% to 139,050 yuan/ton. The import loss and monthly spread changed [11]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In January, China's refined nickel output increased by 20.06%, and the import volume increased by 84.63%. Inventories in different regions changed [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 14,100 yuan/ton. The raw material price and monthly spread changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 26.72%, and the import and export volumes changed. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,350 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In January, the national industrial silicon output decreased by 5.44%, and the开工 rate decreased. The inventory data changed [15]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 4.29% to 53,500 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [17]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The production of polysilicon and silicon wafers, as well as import and export volumes, changed [17]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.84% to 23,650 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the import and export volumes changed. The开工 rate of aluminum alloy - related industries decreased, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.29% to 153,500 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the production of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.31%, and the demand decreased by 4.18%. The inventory data changed [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The total positions of IF, IH, and IC decreased slightly, while the total positions of IM decreased significantly on February 3, 2026 [1][5][11][17][23] 3. Summary by Variety IF - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On February 3, the total position of the IF variety decreased by 2,837 lots, and the position of the main contract 2603 decreased by 4,359 lots [5] - **Top Twenty Long Position Changes**: Among the top twenty long positions of the IF variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 50,637 lots. Guotou Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 1,982 lots during the day, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 2,486 lots [6] - **Top Twenty Short Position Changes**: Among the top twenty short positions of the IF variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 43,238 lots. Guotou Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,762 lots during the day, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,770 lots [8] IH - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On February 3, the total position of the IH variety decreased by 4,799 lots, and the position of the main contract 2603 decreased by 3,469 lots [11] - **Top Twenty Long Position Changes**: Among the top twenty long positions of the IH variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 14,175 lots. Orient Fortune had the largest increase in long positions, adding 414 lots during the day, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 2,913 lots [12] - **Top Twenty Short Position Changes**: Among the top twenty short positions of the IH variety on that day, GF Futures ranked first with a total position of 17,283 lots. Huawen Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 332 lots during the day, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,498 lots [13] IC - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On February 3, the total position of the IC variety decreased by 4,373 lots, and the position of the main contract 2603 decreased by 2,383 lots [17] - **Top Twenty Long Position Changes**: Among the top twenty long positions of the IC variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 52,709 lots. Huawen Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 295 lots during the day, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 3,233 lots [18] - **Top Twenty Short Position Changes**: Among the top twenty short positions of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 56,409 lots. Haitong Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,719 lots during the day, while Guoxin Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 898 lots [20] IM - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On February 3, the total position of the IM variety decreased by 8,732 lots, and the position of the main contract 2603 decreased by 5,304 lots [23] - **Top Twenty Long Position Changes**: Among the top twenty long positions of the IM variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 57,127 lots. CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 359 lots during the day, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 3,196 lots [24] - **Top Twenty Short Position Changes**: Among the top twenty short positions of the IM variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 82,269 lots. Huatai Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 785 lots during the day, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 2,412 lots [25]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Futures Index Spread**: The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of various futures index spreads, including those of IF, IH, IC, and IM. It also shows cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/SSE 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc. [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures Spread**: It details the basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures, along with their changes and historical quantiles. [2] - **Precious Metals**: In the short term, as market sentiment stabilizes, gold may stop falling and rebound, and the bottom of the stage is expected to be gradually established, but bullish confidence needs to be restored. Silver prices may fluctuate widely in the range of 75 - 95 dollars due to regulatory restrictions and macro - news sentiment. Palladium prices will enter a consolidation stage after a short - term rebound. [3] - **Container Shipping Industry**: The settlement price indices of container shipping, such as SCFIS (European and US - West routes) and SCFI, have declined. Futures prices of some contracts have increased, while the basis of the main contract has decreased. Global container shipping capacity supply has slightly increased, and some foreign trade - related and overseas economic indicators have shown positive changes. [4] 3. Summary by Category Futures Index Spread - **IF**: The current - to - spot spread is - 7.11, with a change of - 2.64 from the previous day. The historical 1 - year quantile is 73.70%, and the full - history quantile is 45.00%. [1] - **IH**: The current - to - spot spread is - 1.58, with a change of - 2.64 from the previous day. The historical 1 - year quantile is 54.00%, and the full - history quantile is 47.10%. [1] - **IC**: The current - to - spot spread is 129.15, with a change of - 4.70 from the previous day. The historical 1 - year quantile is 91.80%, and the full - history quantile is 77.20%. [1] - **IM**: The current - to - spot spread is - 26.10, with a change of - 109.37 from the previous day. The historical 1 - year quantile is 60.00%, and the full - history quantile is 51.10%. [1] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: CSI 500/SSE 300 is 1.7782, with a change of 0.0333 from the previous day; CSI 500/SSE 50 is 2.7308, with a change of 0.0545; SSE 300/SSE 50 is 1.5357, with a change of 0.0019; CSI 1000/SSE 300 is 1.7616, with a change of 0.0300. [1] Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.2825, with a change of 0.0172 from the previous day; TF basis is 1.5293, with a change of - 0.0105; T basis is 1.2073, with a change of 0.0123; TL basis is 1.1032, with a change of 0.2674. [2] - **Cross - period Spreads**: For example, the current - to - next - quarter spread of TS is - 0.0420, with a change of 0.0040 from the previous day. [2] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: TS - TF is - 3.4910, with a change of - 0.0210 from the previous day; TS - T is - 5.8460, with a change of 0.0140; TF - T is - 2.3550, with a change of 0.0350. [2] Precious Metals - **Domestic Futures**: AU2604 contract closed at 1093.78 yuan/g, up 8.45% from the previous day; AG2604 contract closed at 21446 yuan/kg, down 13.64%. [3] - **Foreign Futures**: COMEX gold closed at 4970.50 dollars/ounce, up 6.19%; COMEX silver closed at 84.92 dollars/ounce, up 7.13%. [3] - **Spot Prices**: London gold is 4946.17 dollars/ounce, up 6.16%; London silver is 85.42 dollars/ounce, up 7.85%. [3] - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is 2.56, down 15.96 from the previous day; Silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract is 154, up 1566. [3] - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver is 58.54, down 0.88% from the previous day; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver is 51.00, up 25.57%. [3] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.28%, down 0.2%; US dollar index is 97.39, down 0.23%. [3] - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 103032, unchanged; COMEX gold inventory is 35755533, up 0.37%. [3] Container Shipping Industry - **Shipping Indices**: SCFIS (European route) is 1792.14 points, down 3.61% from January 26th; SCFIS (US - West route) is 1101.40 points, down 14.91%. [4] - **Futures Prices**: EC2602 is 1737.8 points, up 1.03% from the previous day; EC2604 (main contract) is 1237.9 points, up 4.50%. [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract is 554.2, down 8.77% from the previous day. [4] - **Fundamentals**: Global container shipping capacity supply is 3379.78 million TEU, up 0.03% from the previous day; Shanghai port on - time rate is 41.81%, up 4.53% from November. [4]

■亚期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年2月4日 Z0003135 张晓珍 | 甲醇价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2月3日 | 2月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | MA2605 收盘价 | 2247 | 2252 | -5 | -0.22% | | | MA2609 收盘价 | 2279 | 2278 | 1 | 0.04% | | | MA59价差 | -32 | -26 | -6 | 23.08% | | | 太仓基差 | -42 | -50 | 8 | -16.00% | | | MTO05盘面 | -107 | -120 | 13 | -10.83% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 1780 | 1780 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2000 | 2008 | -8 | -0.37% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2200 | 2210 | -10 | -0.45% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 420 | 43 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upward potential depends on coking coal supply - side policies and market sentiment. It is recommended to hold the long position of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar and look for short - term long opportunities for hot - rolled coil at the 3250 level [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Before the Spring Festival, iron ore demand is weak. High inventory and high - level supply during the off - season continue to put pressure on prices. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - selling can be attempted, but be vigilant about macro and market sentiment disturbances [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the price increase has been implemented, which drives the market to rebound. However, the lag in the implementation time of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises dampens the expectation of future price increases. After the Spring Festival, there is still an expectation of supply loosening. It is recommended to view it as a unilateral volatility with a reference range of 1600 - 1800, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. - For coking coal, the market has a re - evaluation of its value, but the domestic supply - demand is generally balanced. It is also recommended to view it as a unilateral volatility with a reference range of 1050 - 1250, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, the fundamentals are relatively healthy, and there is cost support. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the range of 5500 - 5800, taking into account macro - sentiment fluctuations. - For ferromanganese, it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. After the Spring Festival, there is still an expectation of production resumption, and the fundamentals lack strength. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the range of 5600 - 6000, paying attention to macro - sentiment fluctuations [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices: Rebar spot prices in different regions (East China, North China, South China) and futures contract prices (05, 10, 01) have different changes. Hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices also show various trends. For example, rebar spot in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract decreased by 25 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 2920 yuan/ton with no change. Plate billet price is 3730 yuan/ton with no change. Profits of different steel products in different regions vary, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 7 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output is 228.0 tons with a decrease of 0.1 tons (- 0.1%). The output of five major steel products is 823.2 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons (0.4%). The inventory of five major steel products is 1278.5 tons, an increase of 21.4 tons (1.7%). Rebar inventory continued to accumulate, while hot - rolled coil inventory decreased [1]. Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 0.5 tons (- 11.6%). The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 7.8 tons (- 1.0%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders (e.g., lower powder, PB powder) decreased, with a decline of about 0.6% - 0.7%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 (2.9%), and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1.5 (- 12.0%) [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 45.3 tons (- 1.8%), and the global shipping volume increased by 116.3 tons (3.9%). The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons (8.2%) [3]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.1%), and the 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased by 21.6 tons (6.9%) [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 255.7 tons (1.5%), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 579.8 tons (6.2%) [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices fluctuated. Coke 05 contract increased by 35 yuan/ton (2.1%), and coking coal 05 contract increased by 26 yuan/ton (2.3%). The basis and spreads of different contracts also changed [6]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5 tons (- 0.7%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons (0.2%). Coking coal production: The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons (- 0.34%), and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons (- 0.14%) [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.1%) [6]. Inventory - Coke total inventory increased by 21.5 tons (2.3%), and coking coal inventory in different sectors (e.g., coking plants, steel mills, ports) also had different changes [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices changed slightly. Ferrosilicon主力合约 decreased by 4.0 yuan/ton (- 0.1%), and ferromanganese主力合约 increased by 2.0 yuan/ton (0.04%). The spreads between different regions and contracts also changed [7]. Cost and Profit - Ferrosilicon production costs in different regions (e.g., Inner Mongolia, Qinghai) increased slightly, and production profits changed. Ferromanganese production costs in some regions remained stable [7]. Supply - Ferrosilicon weekly output was 9.8 tons, with a slight increase of 0.0 tons (0.1%). Ferromanganese weekly output decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.4%) [7]. Demand - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese demand remained relatively stable. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.1%) [7]. Inventory - Ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons (1.0%), and ferromanganese inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons (0.3%) [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Oils and Fats - Palm oil is expected to face downward pressure in the short - term, seeking support at 4,100 ringgit. In the Chinese market, it needs to hold above 9,000 yuan, with strong support at 8,900 yuan. After consolidation, it will choose a new direction after the Spring Festival. - CBOT soybean oil is supported by US - India trade. In China, downstream demand is average, and spot basis quotes will fluctuate narrowly. - Rapeseed oil has weak rebound momentum due to lack of positive factors. Spot prices mainly follow the market [1]. Red Dates - The 25/26 production season of red dates has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Spot prices are basically stable, and futures are in a low - valuation range. The price of red dates is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [3]. Apples - In the Shandong Qixia production area, the trading atmosphere has improved slightly, but the sales of farmers' goods are slow. In the sales areas, the arrival of apples in Guangdong has increased, but the digestion of general goods is slow. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [6][9]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are expected to fluctuate at a low level between 14 - 15 cents. In the Chinese market, the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, and the price is in the bottom - grinding stage. It is expected to follow the overall macro - sentiment and face pressure around 5,300 yuan [13][14]. Corn - In the northeast, corn prices are stable with a weak trend; in the north - central, prices rise and fall. Demand from deep - processing enterprises has a small replenishment demand, while feed enterprises mainly purchase on - demand. Corn prices will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [16]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are slightly up. The cotton industry has pressure and support. Cotton consumption is not weak. In the short - term, cotton prices may fluctuate widely, with support around 14,500 yuan [20]. Eggs - In February, the inventory of laying hens in production is expected to decline, but the market may accumulate a large amount of inventory. After the Spring Festival, there will be great pressure to sell goods. The demand is weak, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range [21][22]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs may be supported in the short - term, but the 03 contract on the futures market is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern due to the off - season demand after the Spring Festival [23][25]. Meal Products - US soybeans maintain a range - bound pattern. In China, the supply of spot goods is loose, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is still high. The pre - festival stocking sentiment is expected to weaken, and the futures market may continue to decline [27]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On February 3, 2026, the average price of soybeans in Jiangsu decreased by 0.59% compared to the previous day; palm oil in Guangdong increased by 0.89%, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 0.76%. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread of various oils and fats also changed to different degrees. For example, the soybean - palm oil spot price difference decreased by 25.49% [1]. Red Dates - **Price and Position**: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of red dates increased by 1.13%. The price difference between different contracts and the basis of spot and futures also changed. The total number of futures warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was at a historical low. - **Market Situation**: The market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [3]. Apples - **Price and Market**: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of apples increased by 1.12%. The arrival volume of apples in some fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 4.21%. - **Production and Sales Areas**: The trading situation in production and sales areas varies, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [6][9]. Sugar - **Futures and Spot**: On February 4, 2026, the futures prices of sugar decreased, and the spot prices in Nanning and Kunming also decreased slightly. The import price and basis of Brazilian sugar also changed. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative sugar production and sales in China decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory increased. The global sugar market surplus is expected to shrink [13][14]. Corn - **Price and Inventory**: On February 4, 2026, the price of corn futures increased slightly, and the basis decreased. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased, and the feed enterprises' stocking was basically completed. - **Market Outlook**: Corn prices will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling rhythm and policy release [16]. Cotton - **Price and Inventory**: On February 4, 2026, the futures price of cotton increased, and the spot price decreased. The commercial inventory decreased significantly, and the industrial inventory increased slightly. - **Industry and Market**: The cotton industry has both pressure and support. The demand for pre - festival replenishment by textile enterprises has basically ended, and the cotton price may fluctuate widely in the short - term [20]. Eggs - **Price and Inventory**: On February 4, 2026, the price of egg futures decreased, and the spot price of eggs decreased by 2.37%. The inventory in the production and circulation links increased. - **Market Forecast**: The supply - demand relationship of the egg market has returned to a loose state, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range [21][22]. Pigs - **Futures and Spot**: On February 4, 2026, the futures prices of pigs decreased, and the spot prices in most regions also decreased. The slaughter volume increased, and the breeding profit changed. - **Market Analysis**: The spot price may be supported in the short - term, but the futures market is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern [23][25]. Meal Products - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, 2026, the prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans all decreased to different degrees. The basis and spread also changed. - **Market Situation**: US soybeans have limited drivers, and the domestic supply is loose. The pre - festival stocking sentiment is expected to weaken, and the futures market may decline [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the supply and demand of polysilicon are both weak, but after the Spring Festival, attention can be paid to the recovery of orders in March and the progress of production capacity regulation. With weak demand, polysilicon production is expected to decrease in February, and the output will be further reduced to 8.2 - 8.5 tons. Although the market is still oversupplied and inventory is accumulating, the inventory accumulation slope has slowed down. The futures price has fallen below the previous support level of 48,000 yuan/ton, and it is expected to find support at 45,000 yuan/ton. In the cooling cycle, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the later production reduction and the recovery of downstream demand [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The average spot price of polysilicon has decreased slightly, and the futures price has dropped significantly. The price difference between rod - shaped silicon and granular silicon has widened. In the futures market, it fell rapidly at the beginning of the month under the influence of anti - monopoly news, then fluctuated in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan from mid - January, and dropped significantly at the end of the month due to weak demand and inventory pressure. In the equity market, many photovoltaic industry chain companies had significant pre - losses in their 2025 performance in mid - January, but then rose sharply due to the influence of space photovoltaics and then fell back [7]. 3.2 Supply - In January, the production is expected to be about 100,800 tons, and in February, it is expected to decrease by about 20,000 tons to 80,000 - 85,000 tons. The significant decrease in February's production is related to the production reduction of many enterprises and the decrease in production days. It is expected that the weekly production in February will remain at about 20,000 tons, with a limited decline compared to the previous month [7][24][27]. 3.3 Demand - In January, the demand and production scheduling of the direct downstream silicon wafers increased, but the terminal demand and the production scheduling of battery cells and silicon wafers decreased, with overall weak demand. The silicon wafer production in January is expected to increase by 5% to over 44GW, but the demand is weak and the inventory has increased by 4.1GW to 27.29GW. In February, the demand is expected to remain weak and the silicon wafer production scheduling will also decline [7][39]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory continues to accumulate. In January, the polysilicon inventory increased by 27,000 tons to 333,000 tons, and the warehouse receipts increased by 4,060 lots to 8,090 lots, equivalent to 24,270 tons [7][89][91]. 3.5 Valuation - The market is still oversupplied, but the excess volume has narrowed, and the futures price is at a discount to the average spot price [7]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Wait and see for now. Downstream enterprises can consider hedging according to the spot transaction situation [4]. - **Arbitrage**: The window for positive inter - month arbitrage is open. One can buy the near - term contract and sell the far - term contract [4]. - **Options**: Wait and see for now. When the volatility is low, one can buy slightly out - of - the - money call options [4]. 3.7 Cost - Profit Analysis - The increase in polysilicon price is beneficial to the profit repair of photovoltaic products, especially polysilicon. In the third quarter of 2025, the production profit of polysilicon turned positive. However, due to the significant decline in downstream demand and no obvious signs of recovery in the first quarter, there is no expectation of continuous profit growth even if the polysilicon price remains high [62]. 3.8 Import - Export - In December 2025, the polysilicon import volume was 0.18 tons, a significant increase of 77% month - on - month and a decrease of 43% year - on - year. The export volume decreased to 0.16 tons, and the net export turned into net import, but the whole year still maintained a net export. The silicon wafer export volume in December 2025 was 0.97 tons, an increase of 49.4% month - on - month and 122.3% year - on - year. The solar cell export volume in December was 1.37 billion, a decrease of 10.9% month - on - month and an increase of 66.9% year - on - year [65][74][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market sentiment is weak. Risk - asset market sentiment has declined sharply, and the A - share market is under pressure. The bond market shows a differentiated trend, with ultra - long bonds being relatively strong. Precious metals have erased last month's gains, and various commodity markets are facing different degrees of pressure or fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Category Equity Indexes - Affected by the commodity sector, the risk - asset market sentiment has dropped rapidly, and the risk preference has significantly decreased. The A - share market has declined under pressure. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, wait for stabilization, and hold bilateral call options [2]. Treasury Bonds - The decline in the equity and commodity markets has raised concerns about the redemption of fixed - income + product net values, making the bond market cautious. The medium - and short - term bonds are oscillating and slightly retracting, while the ultra - long - term bonds are supported by the decline in risk preference. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield faces significant resistance around 1.8% and may fluctuate in the range of 1.8% - 1.85% in the short term. The T2603 contract may oscillate in the range of 108 - 108.3. It is recommended to maintain range - bound operations for the unilateral strategy, pay attention to flattening for the curve strategy, and arrange position transfers in advance before the Spring Festival [2]. Precious Metals - After the large - scale decline in the "leveraged funds" market, precious metals have erased last month's gains. The silver price may fluctuate greatly in the range of 70 - 110 US dollars. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before allocating and buying at - the - money or slightly out - of - the - money call options for gold. A light - position long position in the gold - silver ratio arbitrage can be considered. Platinum and palladium prices will enter a consolidation phase and should be temporarily observed [2]. Shipping - The EC futures price is oscillating downward, with a cautious and bearish outlook [2]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: After the steel mills' restocking is realized, the ore price is under pressure. It is advisable to short at around 800 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price in Shanxi has loosened, and the Mongolian coal follows the futures price fluctuations. The futures price is oscillating downward. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. - **Coke**: The price increase of mainstream coke enterprises has been implemented, and the port trading price is stable. The futures price is oscillating downward. It is advisable to view it as oscillating and slightly strong, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800, and go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. - **Silicon Ferros**: There is no significant contradiction between supply and demand, and attention should be paid to HeSteel's February pricing. It will oscillate widely in the range of 5500 - 5900 [2]. - **Manganese Silicos**: Affected by macro - sentiment, it is operating weakly, with a wide - range oscillation in the range of 5600 - 6000 [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Due to the expectation of balance - sheet reduction and the pressure on risk preference, the copper price has retreated from its high level. It is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [2]. - **Alumina**: Frequent maintenance of alumina plants at the end of the year has led to a strong and oscillating futures price. The short - term decline in the ore price is limited. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options at the lower price limit and short unilaterally at high prices [2]. - **Aluminum**: After the concentrated profit - taking of long - position funds, the futures price has reached the limit - down. It is advisable to pay attention to the support at 23000 - 23500 and go long on dips [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price has adjusted following the limit - down of the aluminum price. It is advisable to refer to the operation range of 21500 - 23500 and conduct an arbitrage of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [2]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has retreated from its high level, and the spot premium has strengthened. It is advisable to pay attention to the support around 24000, wait and see in the short term, and go long at low prices in the long term [2]. - **Tin**: Due to the decline of US technology stocks and the increasing expectation of Fed tightening, the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors have significantly declined, and the tin price has reached the limit - down. It is recommended to participate cautiously in the short term and try a low - buying strategy after the sentiment stabilizes [2]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment has weakened significantly, and the nickel price has dropped sharply during the day. It is advisable to conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range for the main contract of 128000 - 140000 [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: Under the pressure of the macro and raw material sides, the futures price has dropped sharply during the day. It will adjust weakly, with a reference range for the main contract of 13200 - 14500 [2]. New Energy Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rose in the morning under the influence of production cuts and then declined in the afternoon. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 8200 - 9200 [2]. - **Polysilicon**: After a large - scale decline, the polysilicon futures price has rebounded. It is oscillating at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Under macro - pressure and with the exhaustion of positive factors, the futures price has significantly declined and adjusted. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously, as the risk of going long against the trend is relatively high [2]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Due to the collapse of the cost side, PX is oscillating weakly in the short term, with a short - term oscillation range of 7200 - 7600, and short - term long - position operations are recommended [2]. - **PTA**: Under the expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, the driving force before the festival is limited. PTA is oscillating at a high level in the short term, with a short - term oscillation range of 5200 - 5500. Short - term long - position operations and low - level positive arbitrage of TA5 - 9 are recommended [2]. - **Short - fiber**: With a weak supply - demand expectation, it follows the raw material price fluctuations. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA, and it is advisable to shrink the processing fee on the futures price when it is high [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The operating rate of bottle - grade PET plants has increased in February, and it is expected that the plants will accumulate inventory seasonally, suppressing the increase of the processing fee. The unilateral operation of PR is the same as that of PTA. The main - contract processing fee of PR is expected to fluctuate in the range of 400 - 550 yuan/ton. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of shrinking the processing fee when it is high and sell the put option PR2604 - P - 5900 when the price is high [2]. - **Ethanol (EG)**: In February, MEG faces significant inventory - accumulation pressure, with a near - term weak and long - term strong supply - demand situation. The EG2605 price is under pressure above, oscillating in the range of 3700 - 4100. It is advisable to pay attention to the low - level positive arbitrage opportunity of EG5 - 9 and sell the out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4200 when the price is high [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand situation has improved slightly, but the driving force is limited under the suppression of high inventory. It follows the price fluctuations of raw materials and downstream styrene. It should be treated with caution and bearishness, and the EB - BZ spread should be shrunk when it is high [2]. - **Styrene**: Under the expectation of high valuation and weak supply - demand, the price is under pressure. It should be treated with caution and bearishness, and the EB - BZ spread should be shrunk when it is high [2]. - **LLDPE**: The trading volume is weak, mainly for hedging purchases. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **PP**: With weak supply and demand, the price is oscillating. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Methanol**: After the geopolitical situation eases, the price has dropped significantly, and the basis has slightly strengthened. The previous long - position orders have been stopped for profit [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals have not improved, and it is mainly adjusting weakly and stably. A high - short strategy on rebounds is recommended [2]. - **PVC**: With weak demand support, the futures price has declined. PVC may enter a wide - range oscillation, and a short - term low - buying strategy is recommended, while short - position orders should be temporarily observed [2]. - **Urea**: The market trading atmosphere has weakened, and new orders are slow to follow up. The short - term supply - demand improvement expectation is good, but the upward momentum may be insufficient. Short - position orders should be temporarily observed [2]. - **Soda Ash**: With a strong supply and weak demand, it is oscillating in a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the changes in production lines and inventory [2]. - **Glass**: It is mainly oscillating in a weak supply - demand balance. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Natural Rubber**: The sharp decline in commodities has dragged down the rubber price. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The sharp decline in commodities has dragged down the BR price. Attention should be paid to the support of BR2604 around 12500 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply is abundant throughout the February market. Short - position orders can be held, paying attention to changes in macro - sentiment [2]. - **Hogs**: There is a short - term boost from reduced supply, and the supply - demand game before the festival intensifies. It is oscillating at the bottom [2]. - **Corn**: With an increase in supply, the futures price has declined. It will oscillate in the range of 2250 - 2320 [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by macro - capital sentiment and the weakening of crude oil, the vegetable oil sector has generally declined. It is oscillating weakly in a range [2]. - **Sugar**: Due to the lack of fundamental news, it is affected by the overall macro - sentiment. It is oscillating weakly in a range [2]. - **Cotton**: Supported by the firm spot price, the price adjustment space is limited. Long - position orders can be held [2]. - **Eggs**: The egg price has weakened and turned down, and the stocking is coming to an end. It is oscillating in a range [2]. - **Apples**: As the commodity market sentiment cools down, the futures price is oscillating and falling. Long - position orders should be closed at an appropriate time [2]. - **Concentrated Juice**: The sales progress is slow, and the futures price is oscillating and falling. It will oscillate in the range of 8700 - 9200 [2]. Steel - Affected by the weak market sentiment, the steel price has declined, and it will move in the range of 3150 - 3350. The long position in the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread can continue to be held [3].