1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Copper - Short - term: Supply - side issues like low port copper ore inventory and low TC, and demand - side improvement in terminal orders after price retracement. Global visible inventory is accumulating. In the context of narrowing CL premium, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing with increased price volatility. - Medium - to - long - term: The logic remains unchanged. Supply - side capital expenditure is constrained, and AI - driven grid upgrade demand is expected. The bottom center of copper prices is expected to gradually rise. Pay attention to the support level between 101500 - 103000 [1]. 2.2 Zinc - Spot trading improvement is limited. Fundamentally, the tightness of the zinc mine supports prices, but the high zinc price suppresses demand. The smelting profit is under pressure, and the finished product inventory is accumulating. The global visible zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. The price has support below but is pressured by demand feedback above. Pay attention to the support level around 24000 [5]. 2.3 Nickel - Macro sentiment and ore - end expectations affect price fluctuations. Currently, the macro situation is stable, and there is support for prices before the ore - end disturbances are clarified. Refined nickel production is stimulated by high prices, but demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to have a wide - range shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 130000 - 140000 [8]. 2.4 Aluminum - Alumina: Affected by events like strikes and production cuts, the market is bullish, but high - inventory pressure in the spot market suppresses prices. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [10]. - Aluminum: The price is affected by macro, geopolitical, and financial factors. However, it has deviated from fundamental support. It is recommended to make long - term layouts after price stabilization and volatility reduction. Pay attention to the support level between 23000 - 23500 [10]. 2.5 Stainless Steel - The cost support exists, and there is an expectation of supply reduction due to steel mill production cuts. However, the demand boost in the off - season is insufficient, and inventory digestion is slow. It is expected to have a short - term shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 13500 - 14500 [12]. 2.6 Lithium Carbonate - The futures price rebounds slightly. The supply is expected to decline due to pre - holiday maintenance, and the demand has certain resilience. The inventory shows a certain de - stocking trend in the off - season. The price is expected to have a shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 145000 - 155000 yuan/ton [15]. 2.7 Tin - Short - term: Affected by the stock market sell - off, there is a risk of price correction. - Medium - to - long - term: Considering supply - side low elasticity and long - term AI demand, a low - buying strategy can be adopted [17]. 2.8 Industrial Silicon - The price stabilizes. In February, the supply and demand are expected to be weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production reduction and demand changes [19]. 2.9 Polysilicon - In February, the supply and demand are weak. The production is expected to decrease, and the demand reduction is limited. The price may stabilize and fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see during the cooling - down period and pay attention to production reduction and demand recovery [20]. 2.10 Aluminum Alloy - The price is highly volatile. The cost is the main driving factor. The supply and demand are seasonally weak. The ADC12 price is expected to fluctuate in the high - level range of 21500 - 23500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap aluminum circulation, import window, and downstream inventory - building [22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 3.04% to 104405 yuan/ton, and the price of related products also changed to varying degrees. The CL premium affects price trends [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price fell 0.60% to 24900 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 1.83% to 141600 yuan/ton, and the cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose 2.02% to 23760 yuan/ton, and the prices of alumina and related products remained stable [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil in Wuxi and Foshan changed slightly, and the price of raw materials remained stable [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price fell 0.33% to 153000 yuan/ton, and the prices of related products also decreased [15]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price rose 3.44% to 395050 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [19]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose 0.63 - 0.85% in different regions, and the refined - scrap price difference and monthly spread changed [22]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In January, electrolytic copper production increased slightly by 0.10% to 117.93 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 4.02% to 26.02 million tons. The inventory of copper - related products changed to varying degrees [1]. - **Zinc**: In January, refined zinc production increased by 1.54% to 56.06 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 51.94% to 0.88 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 36.32% to 2.73 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [5]. - **Nickel**: In January, China's refined nickel production increased by 20.06% to 37700 tons, and the import volume increased by 84.63% to 23394 tons. The inventory of related products changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production decreased by 1.78% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 0.47% to 379.86 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: In January, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 26.72% to 65.737 million tons, and the production in Indonesia increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In January, lithium carbonate production decreased by 1.31% to 97900 tons, and the demand decreased by 4.18% to 130118 tons. The inventory increased [15]. - **Tin**: In December, tin ore import remained unchanged at 17637 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% to 15950 tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 5.44% to 37.55 million tons, and the operating rates of related regions and industries decreased. The inventory changed slightly [19]. - **Polysilicon**: In January, polysilicon production decreased by 12.73% to 10.08 million tons, and the import and export volumes and inventory changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.69% to 61.00 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly by 0.26% to 30.33 million tons. The operating rates and inventory changed [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the documents. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Fundamental factors such as decreasing production, increasing exports, and expected inventory decline to around 2.9 million tons will support the crude palm oil futures to effectively stand above 4,200 ringgit. The Dalian palm oil futures market will maintain a volatile rebound trend, mainly fluctuating around 9,200 yuan in the short term. After effective consolidation and standing above 9,100 yuan, there is a chance for the futures to follow and gradually launch an upward market [1]. - Soybean oil: The new guidance on the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit may increase the industrial use of US soybean oil, but this positive factor has been digested by the market. With the continuous listing of Brazilian soybeans, CBOT soybeans may decline. In the domestic market, Brazilian soybeans are being harvested and listed, and the market's price - holding mentality is weak. The spot soybean oil will continue to fluctuate with the market, and the basis quote will remain stable [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the external market and the inflow of long - position funds, the rapeseed oil futures price once reached 9,300 yuan. However, as the Spring Festival stocking ends, the terminal demand weakens, and the willingness of funds to chase the rise is insufficient. The spot market transactions are mainly for rigid demand, and the far - month basis quote has significantly declined [1]. Apples - In the production areas, the stocking atmosphere of late - maturing Fuji apples in Gansu and Liaoning is good, and the de - stocking progress of the national apple inventory has accelerated. In the sales areas, the arrival volume of apples in Guangdong wholesale markets has increased significantly, but there is pressure on the daily digestion of the arrival volume. The market sentiment has warmed up, and the futures price has increased with positions. Attention should be paid to the inventory de - stocking situation [4][8]. Red Dates - The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern in the 25/26 production season of red dates still exists. Traders are cautious in stocking, and downstream buyers purchase on demand. With the approaching suspension of logistics, the arrival volume in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market has decreased recently. The futures are still in the low - valuation range, and the registration volume of new - season red date futures warehouse receipts and effective forecasts is relatively small. The social inventory utilization rate is high, and the short - term de - stocking pressure is difficult to relieve. It is expected that the red date price will maintain a volatile bottom - building trend [10]. Pigs - The spot price continues to weaken, and the market's willingness to sell has also increased. The average daily slaughter volume in February will remain high. The slaughter profit is limited, and it is the traditional stocking peak before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the pre - festival stocking intensity. The current fundamental positive factors are limited, and the game will increase. The spot price may have support later. The positive sentiment in the futures market yesterday was mainly due to the policy of strengthening the comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity in the No. 1 Central Document, but the current loose pattern still exists. It is expected that the market will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [11]. Meal - The US soybeans maintain a range - oscillating pattern with limited phased drivers. The shipping from Brazil has accelerated, and the weather speculation in Argentina has decreased. The 3 - 5 spread has narrowed. The pre - festival stocking sentiment in the market is expected to gradually weaken, and the futures lack further drivers. Attention should be paid to the left - hand side changes [13]. Corn - In the Northeast, the grain sales have increased compared with the previous period, but the enterprises' replenishment is approaching the end, and the procurement demand is average, with prices running steadily and weakly. In North China, the number of arriving vehicles continues to increase slightly but is unevenly distributed in different regions, with prices rising and falling. On the demand side, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased significantly but is still at a relatively low level, with a slight willingness to replenish inventory; feed enterprises have basically completed pre - festival stocking and mainly purchase on demand. In the short term, corn stocking is approaching the end, and the trading will gradually weaken, which will put pressure on prices. However, the relatively fast grain sales, the farmers' price - holding attitude, and the low inventory of the middle and lower reaches support the prices, and the overall price will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the subsequent grain sales rhythm and policy release intensity [15]. Sugar - The ICE raw sugar futures have declined, and the market is concerned about supply - related news. Traders are closely watching the news from the annual Dubai Sugar Conference. It is expected that due to the decline in production, the global sugar supply may be more balanced in the 2026/27 season. Internationally, Brazil is approaching the end of the crushing season, which is in line with the previous estimates of institutions, and has less impact on the market. India's sugarcane crushing progress in the 2025/26 season has accelerated significantly, with the cumulative sugar production increasing by more than 20% year - on - year as of mid - January. Thailand's cumulative sugar production has decreased by about 12% year - on - year due to the white leaf disease and the delayed start of crushing, and the sugar production may have a slight downward adjustment space. It is expected that the raw sugar will maintain a low - level oscillation between 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, the Spring Festival stocking is approaching the end, and the market news is dull. The current price is at the bottom - grinding stage. Although there is no positive driver in the market, the negative factors have been gradually realized. In the absence of new negative factors, the price decline is blocked. It is expected that the futures will more follow the overall macro - sentiment fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around the previous high of 5,300 [19][20]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures have slightly declined. The registration of warehouse receipts for delivery has put pressure on the near - month contracts, and traders are waiting for the weekly export sales report from the US Department of Agriculture. The US cotton listing inspection is approaching the end, and the inspection progress has slightly accelerated but is still slower than the same period last year. The weekly deliverable ratio has continued to decline slightly. The USDA export sales have significantly declined, but the shipping has entered the peak period. In the industry, the cotton price is still under pressure but also has support. The market buying power is strong, and the cotton consumption is not weak, so the support below the cotton price is still strong. On the demand side, the pre - festival inventory replenishment of textile enterprises has basically ended, the operating rate has slightly declined, and the rigid - demand procurement is cautious, with only a small amount of sporadic replenishment. The stocking rhythm of traders has slowed down, and the trading atmosphere has cooled down. However, the high commercial inventory has not loosened the spot. In the short term, the cotton price may oscillate in a wide range, and attention should be paid to the support strength around 14,500 [21]. Eggs - In February, the number of newly - laid hens is expected to continue to decrease due to the low - level replenishment in the previous period. The number of old - hen slaughters will also slightly decrease. The inventory of laying hens in production will continue to decline. However, due to the suspension of trading during the Spring Festival, a large amount of inventory may accumulate in the market, and the market will face great pressure to sell goods after the festival. On the demand side, the Spring Festival stocking has basically ended, and the demand has rapidly weakened, especially in the southern market. The oversupply and the enhanced market risk - control awareness have led to an increase in the inventory in the production and circulation links. It is expected that the main contract will maintain a weak - oscillating trend in the range [22][23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8,510 yuan, up 0.59% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2605 is 8,086 yuan, down 0.67%. The basis is - 4, down 1.07%. The 05 - 09 spread is 56, up from 10 [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,100 yuan, down 0.44%. The futures price of P2605 is 9,094 yuan, down 0.48%. The basis is 2, down 66.67%. The 05 - 09 spread is - 2, down 3.70% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil is 10,044 yuan, up 0.20%. The futures price of OI605 is 9,243 yuan, up 0.30%. The basis is 801, down 0.99%. The 05 - 09 spread is - 15, down 18.75% [1]. Apples - The futures price of the main contract Apple 2605 is 9,594 yuan, up 1.15%. The price of Apple 2610 is 8,310 yuan, up 0.65%. The basis is - 1394, down 8.48%. The 5 - 10 spread is 1284, up 4.48%. The arrival volume in several wholesale markets has increased, and the national cold - storage inventory is 6.5405 million tons, down 4.21% [4]. Red Dates - The futures price of the main contract Red Dates 2605 is 8,905 yuan, down 0.17%. The price of Red Dates 2607 is 8,940 yuan, down 0.22%. The price of Red Dates 2609 is 9,095 yuan, down 0.22%. The 5 - 7 spread is - 35, up 12.50%. The 5 - 9 spread is - 190, up 2.56%. The warehouse receipts and effective forecasts total 3,829, down 0.18% [10]. Pigs - The futures price of the main contract Pig 2605 is 11,735 yuan, up 1.16%. The price of Pig 2603 is 11,150 yuan, down 0.09%. The 3 - 5 spread is - 585, down 32.95%. The main - contract position is 145,975 hands, up 58.25%. The warehouse receipts are 647, up 547.00%. The spot prices in different regions have different degrees of decline [11]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 3,100 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2605 is 2,723 yuan, down 0.15%. The basis is 377, up 1.07%. The warehouse receipts are 36,228, up 8.4% [13]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,520 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of RM2605 is 2,247 yuan, down 0.09%. The basis is 273, up 0.74%. The warehouse receipts are 0 [13]. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of Corn 2603 is 2,263 yuan, down 0.18%. The basis is 62, up 6.90%. The 3 - 7 spread is - 20, down 33.33%. The import profit is 223 yuan, down 1.84%. The position is 1,825,020 hands, down 2.85%. The warehouse receipts are 53,570, down 2.39% [15]. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2603 is 2,510 yuan, up 0.04%. The basis is 242, up 0.83%. The 3 - 7 spread is - 71, down 4.41%. The starch - corn 03 spread is 247, up 2.07%. The position is 299,151 hands, up 0.37%. The warehouse receipts are 11,161, unchanged [15]. Sugar - The futures price of Sugar 2605 is 5,210 yuan, up 0.83%. The price of Sugar 2609 is 5,214 yuan, up 0.71%. The ICE raw sugar price is 14.63 cents per pound, up 2.59%. The 5 - 9 spread is - 4, up 60.00%. The main - contract position is 451,761 hands, up 0.06%. The warehouse receipts are 14,216, unchanged. The effective forecasts are 503, up 2.86% [19]. Cotton - The futures price of Cotton 2605 is 14,680 yuan, up 0.20%. The price of Cotton 2609 is 14,805 yuan, up 0.17%. The ICE cotton price is 62.30 cents per pound, down 0.80%. The 5 - 9 spread is - 125, up 3.85%. The main - contract position is 716,331 hands, down 0.22%. The warehouse receipts are 10,438, up 0.37%. The effective forecasts are 1,369, down 0.22% [21]. Eggs - The futures price of Egg 03 is 2,945 yuan per 500 kg, down 0.27%. The price of Egg 04 is 3,183 yuan per 500 kg, down 0.47%. The egg - producing area price is 3.57 yuan per catty, down 2.49%. The basis is - 83, down 11.71%. The 3 - 4 spread is - 238, up 2.86% [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information is provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Natural Rubber**: Current raw material prices have downside support, and the inventory accumulation rate is starting to converge or is about to reach an inflection point. It is recommended to continue holding long positions [2]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inventory in the inland area has decreased slightly, and the port inventory has also decreased slightly. However, the MTO demand is weak, which suppresses the price rebound. The two key variables in the current market are the reduction rhythm of imported methanol due to low Iranian production and geopolitical uncertainties. The price may be volatile in the short - term [6]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has strong supply and weak demand, and there is a possibility of further inventory accumulation in the future. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a reference range of 1150 - 1250 yuan/ton. The glass market has high inventory, which restricts the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of glass at 1000 yuan/ton and consider short - selling with a light position [8]. - **Polyolefins**: The spot price of polyolefins changes little, and the market is mainly for hedging purchases. The basis weakens. The static fundamentals show a decrease in both supply and demand and a slight accumulation of inventory. The upstream inventory is low and has a strong willingness to hold prices. In the short - term, the price increase space and sustainability are expected to be restricted [10]. - **Urea**: The urea supply is sufficient, and the daily output has further increased to 210,000 tons. The inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The industrial demand is decreasing, and the agricultural fertilizer preparation is in progress. The overall trading atmosphere is weak. The short - term price increase is mainly a hedging reaction, and the upward space may be limited. The main contract of urea should focus on the 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton range [11]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market has an imbalance between supply and demand, with high inventory and weak demand. The cost provides some support, and the market may be in a volatile adjustment in the short - term. The PVC market has a weak fundamental situation. The inventory is increasing, and the cost support varies. The short - term price is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the main contract should focus on the 4900 - 5300 yuan/ton range [13]. - **Crude Oil**: The uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation is still large. In the short - term, the oil price is boosted by geopolitical fluctuations, but the weak supply - demand expectation of crude oil still suppresses the increase. The short - term Brent crude oil may operate in the range of 63 - 70 US dollars/barrel [14]. - **LPG**: The LPG price has increased slightly. The inventory of LPG refineries has increased slightly, while the port inventory has decreased. The upstream refinery operating rate has increased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased. The short - term market trend needs to be further observed [17]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene is gradually improving, but due to the import pressure and high port inventory, its own driving force is limited, and the price may follow the oil price and downstream styrene. The styrene industry profit is good, but the supply - demand is expected to be loose in February. The rebound space is limited under the high - valuation and weak supply - demand expectation [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Price and Basis**: On February 4, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.26%. The basis of whole - latex decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 285 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 1.79% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and India increased, while that in China decreased. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly. The domestic tire production and export volume increased in December, and the import volume of natural rubber also increased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory in Qingdao increased by 7,185 tons to 591,689 tons, with a growth rate of 1.23%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 174 tons to 53,625 tons, with a decline rate of 3.10% [2]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the closing price of MA2605 increased by 32 yuan/ton to 2,279 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.42%. The MA59 spread decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 36 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 12.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 55,800 tons to 368,900 tons, with a decline rate of 13.14%. The methanol port inventory decreased by 61,000 tons to 1.411 million tons, with a decline rate of 4.14% [6]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.15 percentage points to 77.56%, and the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 8.67 percentage points to 52.2% [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: On February 2, the price of glass and soda ash in different regions remained stable. The glass 2605 contract increased by 37 yuan/ton to 1,109 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 3.45%. The soda ash 2605 contract increased by 28 yuan/ton to 1,229 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.33% [8]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate decreased by 2.58 percentage points to 84.19%, and the weekly production increased by 11,000 tons to 783,100 tons, with a growth rate of 1.48%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased slightly, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 250 tons to 86,960 tons, with a decline rate of 0.29% [8]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 652,000 weight boxes to 52.564 million weight boxes, with a decline rate of 1.22%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 23,000 tons to 1.5442 million tons, with a growth rate of 1.51% [8]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the closing price of L2605 increased by 53 yuan/ton to 6,918 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.77%. The L59 spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 11.76% [10]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 56,700 tons to 379,700 tons, with a growth rate of 17.55%. The PP enterprise inventory decreased by 32,000 tons to 432,900 tons, with a decline rate of 7.39% [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 3.08 percentage points to 81.59%, and the PP device operating rate increased by 0.40 percentage points to 76.02% [10]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the urea futures fluctuated and rose. The 01 - 05 contract spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 42 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 5.00% [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily production increased by 8,700 tons to 211,100 tons, with a growth rate of 4.28%. The inventory in the factory decreased by 26,400 tons to 918,500 tons, with a decline rate of 2.79% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the price of PVC in East China increased. The V2605 contract increased by 84 yuan/ton to 5,155 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.7%. The V2605 - V2609 spread increased by 13 yuan/ton to - 99 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 11.6% [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 91.4%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 77.1% [13]. - **Inventory**: The PVC upstream factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 290,000 tons, with a decline rate of 5.8%. The PVC total social inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 585,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.4% [13]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, Brent crude oil increased by 2.13 US dollars/barrel to 69.46 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 3.16%. The Brent - WTI spread increased by 0.20 US dollars/barrel to 4.32 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 4.85% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation and the US cold wave, the US crude oil production decreased significantly, and the inventory of crude oil and oil products decreased more than expected, but the gasoline inventory increased [14]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the main PG2603 contract increased by 57 yuan/ton to 4,251 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.36%. The PG03 - 04 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to - 265 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 4.74% [17]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 24.6%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 121,000 tons to 1.88 million tons, with a decline rate of 6.05% [17]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate increased by 1.24 percentage points to 80.02%, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points to 60.7% [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the Brent crude oil price increased by 2.13 US dollars/barrel to 69.46 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 3.2%. The EB - BZ spot spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 1,780 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.3% [19]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 9,000 tons to 296,000 tons, with a decline rate of 3.0%. The styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 8,000 tons to 108,600 tons, with a growth rate of 8.0% [19]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 77.6%, and the styrene operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 69.3% [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are stabilizing. The night trading prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils closed at 3,105 yuan and 3,271 yuan respectively. Supply and demand are both weak, with seasonal inventory accumulation. The off-season characteristics are obvious. Near the Spring Festival, the industry's supply and demand are weak, and the black market valuation is not high, close to the lower edge of the oscillation range, with limited further downward space. The price of coking coal strengthened due to the expected reduction in Indonesian coal production, and it is expected that the supply side of coking coal will affect the black market fluctuations in the near future. Steel prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and the upward elasticity depends on the supply-side policies of coking coal and market sentiment. Consider holding a long position in the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar. Short-term long positions in hot-rolled coils can be attempted at the 3,250 level [1]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract was weak, and the night trading continued to show weakness. The raw material side showed continuous differentiation. Affected by the Indonesian coal export restrictions, the price of coking coal soared, and the coking coal ratio strengthened. The supply side of iron ore had a slight increase in global shipments this period, and the shipment center decreased marginally but was still at a relatively high level compared to the historical average. On the demand side, SMM predicted that the impact of blast furnace maintenance would decline this week, and the molten iron output might increase slightly. After the festival, the resumption of production is expected to accelerate. Currently, the supply and demand of finished products are still healthy, and the inventories of plates and cold-rolled products continue to decline. The terminal demand for steel exports has decreased, but it still has some resilience. Pay attention to the demand recovery after the festival. In terms of inventory, port inventories continued to accumulate, and the high absolute inventory had a strong suppression on iron ore prices; while steel mill inventories increased significantly, and the port clearance volume increased month-on-month, and the replenishment was gradually realized. In the future, the demand for iron ore before the festival is weak, and the high inventory and high off-season supply continue to put pressure on prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly in the short term. Short positions can be attempted, but beware of macro and market sentiment disturbances [3]. Coke - The coke futures oscillated upward. On the spot side, on January 28, steel mills officially accepted the coke price increase and started implementing it on the 30th. The port price remained stable, and the coke market rebounded slightly. On the supply side, the coke price adjustment lags behind that of coking coal, and the coking profit is under pressure, with a slight decline in production. On the demand side, steel mills resumed production slightly after New Year's Day, the molten iron output was low, and the steel price rebounded from a low level. In terms of inventory, both coking plants and steel mills accumulated inventory, and the port inventory decreased. The overall inventory increased slightly at a medium level. The short-term supply and demand of coke are in a slightly tight balance. In terms of strategy, the implementation of the price increase drives the market to rebound, but the implementation time of the price increase by mainstream coking enterprises lags, which suppresses the expectation of future price increases. There is still an expectation of loosening after the festival. The rebound of the coking coal futures price provides cost support. The single-sided view is oscillating, with a reference range of 1,600 - 1,800. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures oscillated upward. On the spot side, the auction price of Shanxi spot showed a downward trend, with the price of low-sulfur main coking coal in some coal mines decreasing. The Mongolian coal quotation fluctuated with the futures. Recently, the auction failure rate has decreased, and the winter storage replenishment is approaching the end. The thermal coal market has started to stabilize recently. On the supply side, after the New Year, the daily output of coal mines continued to recover, entering the resumption of production stage, with good shipments and accelerated inventory reduction. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory is at a historical high, and the Mongolian coal quotation has rebounded and then declined. After New Year's Day, the customs clearance has quickly recovered to a relatively high level. On the demand side, the molten iron output of steel mills remained low, the coking profit declined, and the production declined. The downstream replenishment demand before the Spring Festival has limited growth. In terms of inventory, with the progress of downstream replenishment, coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports have all accumulated inventory, while coal mines, coal washing plants, and ports have reduced inventory. The overall inventory has increased slightly at a medium level. In terms of strategy, the short-term implementation of the coke price increase drives the market to rebound. India classifies coking coal as a strategic resource, and the Indonesian government's reduction of the annual coal production plan has led to coal mine production cuts, and overseas market disturbances have driven the rebound of coking coal. However, the domestic supply and demand are generally balanced. The single-sided view is oscillating, with a reference range of 1,050 - 1,250. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Silicon Iron - The main silicon iron contract oscillated, and the contract was shifted to 05. The Indonesian coal export restrictions led to an expected increase in the cost of silicon iron. On the spot side, the price in the Ningxia production area weakened slightly yesterday, and the rest remained stable. Near the holiday, the transaction was cold. On the supply side, the silicon iron output increased slightly month-on-month, basically the same as the previous period, with limited changes, and the absolute value was still at a historically low level in the same period. The output in most production areas was basically the same as last week, and the output in Ningxia increased slightly. It is expected that the silicon iron output will remain stable before the festival. In terms of steelmaking demand, the molten iron output is expected to remain stable before the festival, and the contradiction on the finished product side is relatively limited. The slow resumption of molten iron production can effectively suppress the increase in the inventory contradiction of finished products. The subsequent resumption of molten iron production is limited by the off-season demand, but negative feedback is difficult to see. In terms of magnesium metal demand, the daily output is still at a relatively high level, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened compared with the previous period, and the price has declined; the silicon iron export is also affected by many factors, and the overall steel demand has weakened marginally. In terms of cost, the price of semi-coke remained stable, and the settlement electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai increased slightly. Pay attention to the changes in the settlement electricity prices in other production areas. The cost side still has support. In the future, the short-term supply and demand contradiction of silicon iron is limited, the fundamentals are relatively healthy, and the cost side has support. Pay attention to macro sentiment disturbances. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5,500 - 5,800 [7]. Manganese Silicon - The main manganese silicon contract oscillated, and the position was reduced before the festival. On the spot side, the downstream steel mills have basically completed the replenishment, and at the same time, the transportation has gradually stagnated, and the spot transaction is cold. Fundamentally, the manganese silicon supply has declined slightly, and the recent output has basically remained stable, with the manufacturer's operating rate increasing. The absolute output is at a historically low level. Affected by the new production capacity in Inner Mongolia, the output has steadily increased; the output in Ningxia has continued to decline; the southern region is affected by the power grid policy adjustment, and there is an expected significant increase in electricity prices in the future. Most manufacturers maintain production suspension, and the output in Guangxi continues to shrink. It is expected that the share of the southern manganese silicon production area will continue to shrink, and the manganese silicon output will remain stable before the festival. In terms of steelmaking demand, the molten iron output is expected to remain stable before the festival, and the contradiction on the finished product side is relatively limited. The slow resumption of molten iron production can effectively suppress the increase in the inventory contradiction of finished products. The subsequent resumption of molten iron production is limited by the off-season demand, but negative feedback is difficult to see. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory remains high, and the pressure is concentrated in Ningxia, but the order level is relatively low, and the total inventory is moderately high. In terms of cost, the alloy manufacturers' manganese ore procurement is basically over, and the inventory replenishment is weak. The first-round quotation of the outer disk continues to rise, and the maintenance of some mines in Africa has a short-term impact on the supply. The cost support of manganese ore still exists. Affected by the Indonesian coal production restrictions, the price of coking coal soared, driving up the price of coke. Recently, this factor may have an impact on the manganese silicon price, but the sustainability is expected to be limited. Overall, manganese silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand. There is still an expectation of resumption of production after the festival, and the fundamentals lack driving force. In the short term, pay attention to macro sentiment disturbances. It is expected that the manganese silicon price will oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5,600 - 6,000 [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3,230 yuan/ton, 3,160 yuan/ton, and 3,270 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of rebar increased by 12 yuan, 15 yuan, and 11 yuan respectively. - Hot-rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3,260 yuan/ton, 3,160 yuan/ton, and 3,270 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of hot-rolled coils increased by 13 yuan, 20 yuan, and 23 yuan respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price increased by 10 yuan to 2,930 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged at 3,730 yuan/ton. - The cost of electric furnace rebar in Jiangsu decreased by 12 yuan to 3,236 yuan/ton, and the cost of converter rebar decreased by 16 yuan to 3,170 yuan/ton. - The profit of rebar in East China decreased by 6 yuan to -30 yuan/ton, the profit of rebar in North China decreased by 16 yuan to -100 yuan/ton, and the profit of rebar in South China decreased by 6 yuan to 160 yuan/ton. - The profit of hot-rolled coils in East China decreased by 6 yuan to 0 yuan/ton, the profit of hot-rolled coils in North China decreased by 6 yuan to -100 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot-rolled coils in South China increased by 4 yuan to 10 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased by 0.1 to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.0%. - The output of the five major steel products increased by 3.6 tons to 823.2 tons, an increase of 0.4%. - The rebar output increased by 0.3 tons to 199.8 tons, an increase of 0.1%. Among them, the electric furnace output decreased by 1.1 tons to 32.2 tons, a decrease of 3.2%, and the converter output increased by 1.4 tons to 167.6 tons, an increase of 0.8%. - The hot-rolled coil output increased by 3.8 tons to 309.2 tons, an increase of 1.2% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 21.4 tons to 1,278.5 tons, an increase of 1.7%. - The rebar inventory increased by 23.4 tons to 475.5 tons, an increase of 5.2%. - The hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.2 tons to 355.6 tons, a decrease of 0.6% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.5 to 3.6 tons, a decrease of 12.6%. - The demand for the five major steel products decreased by 7.8 tons to 801.7 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. - The demand for rebar decreased by 9.1 tons to 176.4 tons, a decrease of 4.9%. - The demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 1.5 tons to 311.4 tons, an increase of 0.5% [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines increased by 4.4 yuan, 4.4 yuan, 4.3 yuan, and 4.3 yuan respectively, with an increase of 0.5%. - The 05 contract basis of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines increased by 0.4 yuan, 0.4 yuan, 0.3 yuan, and 0.3 yuan respectively, with an increase of 0.5%, 0.7%, 0.6%, and 0.4%. - The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 17.0, a decrease of 2.9%, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged at 11.0 [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 45.3 tons to 2,484.7 tons, a decrease of 1.8%. - The global shipment volume increased by 116.3 tons to 3,094.6 tons, an increase of 3.9%. - The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons to 11,964.7 tons, an increase of 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. - The 45 - port daily average clearance volume increased by 21.6 tons to 332.3 tons, an increase of 6.9%. - The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 162.1 tons to 6,072.2 tons, a decrease of 2.6%. - The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 169.4 tons to 6,817.7 tons, a decrease of 2.4% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 255.7 tons to 17,022.26 tons, an increase of 1.5%. - The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 579.8 tons to 9,968.6 tons, an increase of 6.2%. - The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 4.0 days to 27.0 days, an increase of 17.4% [3]. Coke Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1,671 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) increased by 11 yuan to 1,745 yuan/ton. - The 05 contract of coke increased by 55 yuan to 1,770 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract increased by 48 yuan to 1,832 yuan/ton. - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1,260 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) increased by 29 yuan to 1,209 yuan/ton. - The 05 contract of coking coal increased by 42 yuan to 1,209 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract increased by 36 yuan to 1,282 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5 tons to 62.8 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. - The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 47.0 tons, an increase of 0.2% [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 21.5 tons to 960.6 tons, an increase of 2.3%. - The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.9 tons to 84.4 tons, an increase of 3.6%. - The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 16.6 tons to 678.2 tons, an increase of 2.5%. - The port inventory increased by 2.0 tons to 198.1 tons, an increase of 1.0% [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by macro - economic factors, policies, and geopolitical events. For example, metals are influenced by supply changes and geopolitical risks, and agricultural products are affected by weather, production forecasts, and policies [2][3][4] - In the short term, most sectors are expected to be in a state of shock adjustment. Some sectors may have short - term upward or downward trends due to specific events, but overall, there is no clear long - term trend [20][25][29] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Selections - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals have not improved. The futures price rebounded slightly on the 4th, and the spot price was weakly stable. High inventory and weak demand continue, and the cost side provides some support. The short - term market may be adjusted by shock [2] - **Coking Coal**: The coal price in Shanxi has loosened, and the price of Mongolian coal has fallen from a high level. The futures price fluctuated and rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is limited, and the inventory is slightly increasing. It is recommended to view it with a shock and consider arbitrage strategies [3] - **Live Pigs**: The slaughter volume has increased significantly, and the pre - festival supply - demand game has intensified. The spot price has continued to weaken, and the current supply is loose. Although there is policy support, the short - term rise may be followed by a decline [4] Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, the main indexes fluctuated upward throughout the day, with shrinking trading volume. The energy sector performed well, while the TMT sector showed a significant correction. The four major stock index futures contracts rose with the indexes, and the basis of the main contracts rebounded [5][6] - **News**: Domestically, there was a phone call between the leaders of China and the United States, emphasizing issues such as the Taiwan issue. Overseas, the Fed announced some policies regarding the pressure test of large - scale banks, and the US service industry PMI index showed certain changes [6][7] - **Funding**: On February 4, the trading volume of the A - share market was stable, with a total turnover of 2.50 trillion yuan. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2965 billion yuan [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: After the risk is concentratedly released, the commodity and equity assets have recovered. It is recommended to control portfolio risks and use bullish spread or buy call options on days of deep correction to layout the index [8] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market showed different trends [9] - **Funding**: The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3025 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds returned to a stable and loose situation [9] - **Operation Suggestion**: As the equity market rebounds, the trend of treasury bond futures is weakening. It is recommended to pay attention to the financial data in January. In the short term, the 10 - year treasury bond may fluctuate in the range of 1.8% - 1.85%, and the T2603 contract may fluctuate in the range of 108 - 108.3. It is recommended to maintain interval operations and arrange position transfers in advance before the Spring Festival [10] Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US economic data was mixed, and the situation in the Middle East changed repeatedly. Precious metals rose after a high - level fall. Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all showed certain increases [11][14] - **Outlook**: The Fed's interest - rate cut pace has slowed down. Geopolitical risks and investment demand support the price of precious metals. Gold may establish a bottom in the rebound stage, and silver may fluctuate in a wide range. Platinum and palladium may enter a consolidation stage [14][15] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The inventory in three places has increased, and the CL premium has fluctuated. The supply side has some constraints, and the demand side has improved slightly. In the long - term, the price bottom is expected to rise gradually. It is recommended to take a long - term long position at low prices [16][19][20] - **Alumina**: The warehouse receipts have continued to increase, and the price has fluctuated widely. The supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the high inventory pressure suppresses the price. It is expected to fluctuate around the industry cost line [20][22][23] - **Aluminum**: The price has fluctuated greatly in the short term. The macro - narrative and geopolitical risks have pushed up the price, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then make a long - position layout [23][25] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price has a premium over the futures price. The cost is the main driving factor, and the supply and demand are both weak seasonally. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [26][29] - **Zinc**: The price has fallen from a high level, and the spot trading is average. The supply of zinc ore is tight, and the demand is suppressed. The price has limited downward space [30][33] - **Tin**: Affected by the US stock market sell - off, the price fell at night. The supply has increased, and the demand of some enterprises has declined. In the long - term, it is recommended to take a long - position at low prices [35][38] - **Nickel**: The price has fluctuated and adjusted. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in a wide range [39][41] - **Stainless Steel**: The price has rebounded slightly. The cost provides support, and the supply is expected to shrink. It is expected to adjust by shock in the short term [42][44] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price has fluctuated and rebounded slightly. The supply is expected to decline, and the demand has certain resilience. It is expected to adjust by shock in the short term [46][48] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price rose in the afternoon under the influence of the space photovoltaic concept. The supply is expected to decline in February, and the demand is weak. It is expected to stabilize and fluctuate [49][50] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price has stabilized, and the futures price has fluctuated above the average line. The supply and demand are both weak in February, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton [50][52] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The valuation is not high, and it is recommended to try short - term long positions. The cost has fallen, the supply is at a low level, the demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory has entered the seasonal accumulation stage [53][54] - **Iron Ore**: The price is under pressure. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak before the Spring Festival, and the high inventory suppresses the price. It is recommended to try short - term short positions [55][56] - **Coking Coal**: The price has fluctuated and risen. The supply is increasing, the demand is limited, and the inventory is slightly increasing. It is recommended to view it with a shock and consider arbitrage strategies [58][60] - **Coke**: The price has fluctuated and risen. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is at a low level, and the inventory is slightly increasing. It is recommended to view it with a shock and consider arbitrage strategies [61][62] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply and demand have no major contradictions. The price is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - emotional disturbances [63][64] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is running weakly. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is at a low level, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - emotional disturbances [65][67] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The supply is loose in February. The US soybean price fluctuates in a range, and the domestic spot supply is loose. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - changes [68][70] - **Live Pigs**: The slaughter volume has increased, and the pre - festival supply - demand game has intensified. The spot price has continued to weaken, and the market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [71][72] - **Corn**: The unilateral driving force is not strong, and the price fluctuates. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [73][75] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price fluctuates, and the domestic spot price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [76] - **Cotton**: The spot price provides support, and the price adjustment space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in a wide range [78] - **Eggs**: The market risk control has increased, and the price continues to be weak. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range [81][82] - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil price is supported by fundamentals, and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices are affected by policies and market conditions. It is recommended to wait and see [83][86] - **Jujubes**: The driving force is insufficient, and the price fluctuates in a narrow range. The supply and demand are loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and bottom out [87][89] - **Apples**: The consumption progress has accelerated, and the price fluctuates strongly. The inventory is decreasing, but the high price may suppress consumption. It is recommended to pay attention to the post - festival inventory [90][91] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The supply and demand are weak in the near term and strong in the long term. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to operate with a rolling low - long strategy [92][93] - **PTA**: There is a seasonal accumulation expectation in the first quarter. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to operate with a rolling low - long strategy and a low - position positive spread [94][95] - **Short - fiber**: The supply and demand are expected to be weak, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to operate in the same way as PTA and reduce the processing margin when it is high [96] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply is expected to increase in February, and the demand will be seasonally weak. The processing margin is expected to be suppressed. It is recommended to operate in the same way as PTA and pay attention to reducing the processing margin [98][99] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply and demand are weak in the near term and strong in the long term. The price is under pressure. It is recommended to operate in the range of 3700 - 4100 and pay attention to the positive spread [100] - **Pure Benzene**: The supply and demand have improved, but the high inventory limits the driving force. The price follows the raw materials and downstream styrene. It is recommended to wait and see and reduce the EB - BZ spread when it is high [101][102] - **Styrene**: Affected by new export news and strong oil prices, it is strong in the short term. The supply is expected to increase in February, and the demand is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see and reduce the EB - BZ spread when it is high [103][104] - **LLDPE**: The basis has weakened, and the hedging merchants are the main buyers. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to stop the previous long positions and wait and see [105] - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price fluctuates. It is recommended to wait and see [106] - **Methanol**: The trading is average, and the basis has strengthened slightly. The supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [107] - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals have not improved, and it is adjusted weakly and stably. It is recommended to pay attention to the procurement volume of the main downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [108][110] - **PVC**: Affected by emotions, the price is strong. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak before the festival, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [111][112] - **Urea**: The pre - festival trading atmosphere has weakened, and new orders are slow to follow up. The supply is sufficient, and the price may rise due to emotional factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the factory's pre - festival order - receiving strategy and agricultural fertilizer - preparation demand [113][115] - **Soda Ash**: The atmosphere has heated up, and it has followed the rise. The supply is expected to decline in the short term, the demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and the inventory is slightly increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [116][120] - **Glass**: Affected by coal prices and the expectation of cold repair of production lines, it has opened high and gone high. The supply is at a low level, the demand is weak before the festival, and the inventory is still at a high level. It is recommended to try short positions lightly [116][120] - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material price has risen, and the rubber price has continued to rise. The supply is shrinking, the demand is affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to hold long positions [120][123] - **Synthetic Rubber**: In the short term, BR follows the commodity fluctuations. The cost is supported, the demand is expected to improve in the first quarter, and the supply inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 12500 for BR2604 [123][126]

欢迎关注微信公众号 【每日精选观点】 品种 合约 观点 铜 CU2603 農荡偏强 烧碱 短期偏弱 SH2603 热卷 价格中枢在区间下沿向上修复 HC2605 豆糖 農荡偏弱 M2605 【全品种日评】 品种 主力合约 操作建议 点评 IF2603 风险集中释放后,商品及权益资产均有所回暖,但 IH2603 市场情绪回暖,股指集体反弹 股指 持仓未见回升,处于修复性反弹阶段。建议做好组 IC2603 合风险控制,等待企稳,可持有双边买权仓位。 IM2603 昨日权益市场反弹略压制长债情绪,不过央行公告 一是1月买债1000亿元,二是3个月买断式逆回购 净投放1000亿元,资金面宽松预期支撑短端相对 T2603 走强,关注周四周五政府债供给压力。仍预期 TF2603 国债 权益市场反弹,长债情绪略回落 TS2603 T2603合约波动区间或在108-108.3。单边策略 上仍维持区间操作。曲线策略上建议关注做平。移 TL 2603 仓策略上,下月面临春节,建议投资者在节前提前 安排移仓,以防节后流动性不足。 AU2604 AG2604 白银ETF持仓大幅回升 市场情绪改善贵金属止跌反弹 黄金止跌反弹阶段底部有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The domestic market maintains high production, and inventory has slightly decreased. Traditional demand will seasonally weaken during the Spring Festival. The decline in the de - stocking rate of the 05 contract suppresses price rebound. Key variables include the reduction rhythm of imported methanol and geopolitical uncertainties [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - For pure benzene, although supply and demand are gradually improving, due to import pressure and high port inventory, its price may follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. Short - term oil prices are strong, so pure benzene may be boosted. - For styrene, although there are new export news and oil price support, its over - valuation and weak supply - demand expectations limit the rebound space [4]. Natural Rubber - Overseas supply is shrinking, and cost support is strengthening. Demand is weakening due to the Spring Festival. Inventory in Qingdao has started to accumulate again, but the rate is converging. Rubber prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and it is advisable to consider a light - position long - entry [5]. LPG No specific views on the future trend of LPG are provided in the report, only data on prices, inventories, and operating rates are presented [6]. Polyolefins - Polyolefins are driven by capital rotation and geopolitical tensions, with prices being strong. The static fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand and inventory reduction. PP's supply pressure is relieved due to many maintenance plans, while PE's standard - product pressure increases. The downstream operating rate is weakening [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with a high inventory in factories and a good reduction in social inventory. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to production line changes and glass operating conditions after the Spring Festival. - Glass has a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory suppressing prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to production line ignition, inventory changes, and macro - policies [10]. Crude Oil - International oil prices rose on Tuesday. Factors include the stabilization of the precious metal and non - ferrous metal markets, the intensification of the US - Iran situation, and the unexpected decline in API crude oil inventory. However, the weak supply - demand expectation of crude oil still suppresses the increase. Short - term Brent crude oil may operate in the range of $63 - 70 per barrel [11]. Urea - Urea supply is sufficient, and the daily output has increased. As the Spring Festival approaches, industrial demand decreases, and agricultural demand is selective. The market trading is inactive, and prices may further decline slightly. It is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda supply and demand are unbalanced, with high inventory and weak demand. It is expected to adjust weakly, and attention should be paid to the procurement volume of downstream industries and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine. - PVC's supply is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival, and demand decreases due to the festival. The cost has strong support, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: In the first quarter, the supply - demand situation is weaker than expected, but there is support at low prices in the second quarter. - PTA: Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand is weak, and it is expected to accumulate inventory significantly. There is support at low prices in the second quarter. - Ethylene Glycol: It shows a pattern of weak near - term and strong long - term supply - demand. It will accumulate inventory in February, but the supply is expected to shrink in the second quarter. - Short - fiber: The supply - demand is weak before the Spring Festival, and the price follows raw material fluctuations. - Bottle - grade polyester chips: Supply increases and demand decreases in February, and the processing fee is under pressure [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2605 closed at 2247, down 0.22%; MA2609 closed at 2279, up 0.04%. The MA59 spread was - 32, down 23.08%. The port - inland spread decreased. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory decreased by 3.12%, port inventory increased by 1.00%, and social inventory increased by 0.05%. - **Operating Rates**: Domestic upstream operating rate increased by 0.19%, overseas upstream operating rate decreased by 14.26%. The downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 0.35% [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude oil rose 1.6%, WTI crude oil rose 1.7%. The pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 8.8%. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene spot and futures prices rose. The EB - BZ spread increased. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports changed. - **Operating Rates**: Asian and domestic pure benzene operating rates increased, and some downstream operating rates decreased [4]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex remained unchanged, and the basis decreased. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased. - **Fundamental Data**: Thailand, Indonesia, and India's rubber production increased in December, while China's decreased. Tire production and export increased. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory increased, and futures inventory in the warehouse decreased [5]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The main contract PG2603 rose 0.94%. The inter - contract spreads changed. The spot price remained unchanged, and the basis decreased. - **Inventory**: Refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 5.23%, port inventory decreased by 1.53%, and port storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.36%. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate increased by 1.99%, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased by 14.81% [6]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2605 closed at 6865, down 0.19%; PP2605 closed at 6730, up 0.24%. The L59 and PP59 spreads decreased. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 3.58%, and PP enterprise inventory increased by 0.44%. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 3.77%, and PP device operating rate increased by 0.53% [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract FG605 rose 1.52%. The spot price remained unchanged. The inventory decreased slightly. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract SA605 fell 0.17%. The spot price remained unchanged. The supply may decline in the short term, and the inventory in factories increased slightly [10]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude oil rose 1.55%, WTI crude oil rose 1.72%. The spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices rose. The spreads between different contracts changed. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spreads**: The cracking spreads of some refined oils changed [11]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures price fluctuated downwards, and the spot price was generally stable with minor changes. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The market trading was inactive [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: The price of caustic soda decreased slightly, and the price of PVC increased slightly. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate of caustic soda was high, and the demand was weak. The supply of PVC was expected to increase slightly, and the demand decreased due to the festival [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose, and the price of CFR Japan naphtha increased. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX price increased, and the spreads changed. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA spot price decreased, and the basis strengthened. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG spot price decreased, and the inventory increased. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of different links in the polyester industry chain changed [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - After the concentrated release of risks, both commodity and equity assets have recovered, but the market sentiment is still in the process of recovery. [2] - The central bank's bond - buying and reverse - repurchase operations have supported the short - end of the bond market, while the long - end is affected by the rebound of the equity market. [2] - Precious metals have stopped falling and rebounded, but the confidence of gold bulls needs to be restored, and silver prices will fluctuate widely. [2] - Steel prices maintain a volatile trend, and the prices of iron ore and coking coal are under pressure. [2] - The prices of most chemical products are in a volatile state, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different products. [2] - Agricultural product prices are also in a state of volatility, with different trends for different varieties. [2] 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - After the concentrated release of risks, the equity market has rebounded, but the positions have not increased. It is in a stage of restorative rebound. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, wait for stabilization, and hold bilateral call option positions. [2] Bonds - The rebound of the equity market has slightly suppressed the sentiment of long - term bonds. The central bank's operations have supported the short - end. It is expected that the T2603 contract will fluctuate between 108 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies should be range - bound operations, and curve strategies should focus on flattening. It is recommended to arrange position transfers before the Spring Festival. [2] Precious Metals - Gold has stopped falling and is in the stage of bottom establishment, and can be allocated at low prices; silver prices will fluctuate widely between 75 - 95 dollars. Platinum and palladium will follow the rebound of gold and enter a consolidation stage, and short - term waiting for the direction to clear is recommended. [2] Shipping - The EC of container shipping has risen on the disk, and cautious waiting and seeing is recommended. [2] Steel and Related Products - Steel prices maintain a volatile trend. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coil is 3150 - 3350. Iron ore prices are under pressure after the completion of steel mill replenishment. The prices of coking coal and coke are in a volatile decline. [2] Chemical Products - Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX and PTA have support at low levels, while short - fiber and bottle - chip are affected by supply - demand expectations. Some products like LLDPE and PP are in a state of supply - demand imbalance and price volatility. [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are in a state of loose supply, while cotton prices are relatively stable and long positions can be held. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It provides insights into the supply - demand situation, price trends, and investment strategies for each market [2][3][4] - Overall, the market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic policies, geopolitical events, and seasonal demand changes. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities [21][27][30] Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: Overseas and domestic copper storage expectations are strengthening, and copper prices have stopped falling and stabilized. Short - term CL premium changes will affect copper prices, and the long - term view remains positive [2][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals have not improved, and the market is expected to adjust weakly and stably. Attention should be paid to the procurement volume of major downstream industries and the fluctuations in liquid chlorine prices [3][114] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: It maintains de - stocking, and the price has fallen. There are short - term long opportunities at low prices. The steel price is expected to fluctuate, and the long position of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar can be held [4][57] - **Meal Products**: The supply is loose throughout February. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes [5][76] Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The market sentiment has improved, and stock indexes have rebounded collectively. The four major stock index futures contracts have also risen, and the basis has recovered. It is recommended to control portfolio risks and hold bilateral call option positions [6][7][8] Treasury Bond Futures - The rally in the equity market has slightly dampened the sentiment of long - term bonds. The central bank's operations support the short - end. It is recommended to operate within the range, pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between ultra - long - term and other varieties, and arrange position transfers in advance [9][10][11] Precious Metals - The持仓 of silver ETF has increased significantly, and the market sentiment has improved. Precious metals have stopped falling and rebounded. Gold is expected to gradually establish a bottom, and silver may fluctuate widely. Platinum and palladium are expected to follow the upward trend of gold in the long - term but may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term [12][14][15] Shipping Index (European Line) - The futures price has risen. In the long - term, the price is in a downward range, but the 04 contract price is currently at a low level, and it is expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term. It is recommended to observe cautiously [16][17] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Overseas and domestic storage expectations are strengthening, and copper prices have rebounded. The short - term price may be determined by fundamentals, and a long position can be considered at low prices [17][21] - **Alumina**: Due to maintenance and supply contraction expectations, the futures price is strong, but high inventory suppresses the price. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the cost line [22][24] - **Aluminum**: The price has high volatility. It is recommended to establish long positions after the price stabilizes, paying attention to the support level [25][27] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price follows the fluctuation of aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. An arbitrage strategy of long AD03 and short AL03 can be considered [28][30] - **Zinc**: The price has retreated from a high level. The supply is tight at the mine end, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate, and a long position can be considered at low prices [31][34] - **Tin**: The price has rebounded. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is differentiated. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and consider a long position at low prices in the long - term [35][39] - **Nickel**: The price has rebounded slightly and then fluctuated. The macro - economic situation and mine - end expectations affect the price, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [40][42] - **Stainless Steel**: The price has oscillated and recovered. The cost provides support, but the demand is weak. It is expected to adjust weakly in the short - term [43][46] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price has rebounded at a low level. The supply may decline, and the demand is resilient. It is expected to adjust widely [47][50] - **Polysilicon**: The production enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices, and the price has risen. It is expected to be weak in February, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery [51][52] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price has risen and then oscillated. The supply and demand are expected to decline in February, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [53][55] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The price is expected to fluctuate. The hot - rolled coil maintains de - stocking, and a long position can be considered at low prices. The long position of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar can be held [56][57] - **Iron Ore**: The price is under pressure. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak before the Spring Festival. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [58][60] - **Coking Coal**: The price has oscillated and declined. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate within a range, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke can be considered [61][64] - **Coke**: The price has oscillated and declined. The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate within a range, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke can be considered [65][66] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply and demand have no major contradictions. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to macro - economic sentiment [67][69] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is weak. The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to macro - economic sentiment [70][72] Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The supply is loose, and the market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to macro - economic changes [73][76] - **Hogs**: The supply is increasing, and the supply - demand game is intensifying. The spot price may be supported, but the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [77][78] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate narrowly. Attention should be paid to the grain sales rhythm and policy release [79][81] - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is expected to have a reduced surplus. The domestic market is expected to follow the macro - economic sentiment, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term [82][84] - **Cotton**: The price is expected to oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to the support level at 14,500 [84][86] - **Eggs**: The supply - demand situation has become looser, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [87][88] - **Oils and Fats**: It may enter a phase of stopping the decline and adjusting. Different oils have different trends, and attention should be paid to support levels [89][91] - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [92][93] - **Apples**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory [94][96] Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The cost - side risks have been released, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve. The price has support at a low level, and a long position can be considered at low prices [97][98] - **PTA**: The cost - side risks have been released, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve in the medium - term. The price has support at a low level, and a long position can be considered at low prices [99][100] - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to operate in the same way as PTA and reduce the processing margin at high levels [101] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply is expected to increase in February, and the demand will weaken seasonally. The processing margin is expected to be suppressed, and it is recommended to operate in the same way as PTA and pay attention to reducing the processing margin at high levels [102][103] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand situation is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. The price is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate within a range, and a positive spread strategy can be considered [104][105] - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation has improved slightly, but high inventory restricts its self - driving force. The price follows the raw materials and downstream styrene. It is recommended to hold short positions and reduce the spread between styrene and pure benzene at high levels [106] - **Styrene**: New export news and strong oil prices boost the price in the short - term, but the high valuation and weak supply - demand expectations limit the rebound space. It is recommended to hold short positions and reduce the spread between styrene and pure benzene at high levels [107][109] - **LLDPE**: Hedging continues to build positions, and the trading volume is neutral. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to stop the profit of previous long positions and observe [110][111] - **PP**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price oscillates. Attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans. It is recommended to observe [111][112] - **Methanol**: The trading volume is average, and the basis has strengthened slightly. The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is recommended to observe and stop the profit of previous long positions [112][113] - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals have not improved, and the market is expected to adjust weakly and stably. Attention should be paid to the procurement volume of major downstream industries and the fluctuations in liquid chlorine prices [113][114] - **PVC**: The price is strong. The supply - demand situation improves slightly before the Spring Festival, and the cost provides support. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [115][116] - **Urea**: The trading atmosphere before the Spring Festival is weak, and new orders are slow to follow. The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the factory's pre - holiday order - receiving strategy and agricultural fertilizer demand [118][119] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to post - holiday production line changes and downstream glass production [120][124] - **Glass**: The supply - demand situation is in a weak balance. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to production line changes, inventory, and macro - policies [120][125] - **Natural Rubber**: The commodity atmosphere has improved, and the rubber price has rebounded. The supply is decreasing, and the cost provides support. It is recommended to try a long position with a light position [125][128] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR has rebounded with the commodities. The cost provides support, and the demand is expected to improve. The supply inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level at 12,500 [128][129]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, as market sentiment stabilizes, gold has stopped falling and rebounded. The bottom of the stage is expected to be gradually established, but bullish confidence still needs to be restored. Investors can choose to allocate at low prices [1] - Affected by factors such as regulatory restrictions and macro - news sentiment, silver prices may fluctuate widely in the range of $75 - 95. Before the holiday, the exchange raised margin requirements again. Institutions may hold empty positions and wait and see, resulting in a decline in liquidity and volatility. Single - side operations need to be cautious [1] - Palladium rebounds following gold in the short - term, and its price will enter a consolidation phase. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily until the direction is clear [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - The AU2604 contract rose 85.18 yuan/gram on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 8.45% compared to February 2 [1] - The AG2604 contract fell 3386 yuan/kg on February 3, 2026, with a daily decrease of 13.64% compared to February 2 [1] - The PT2606 contract rose 20.80 yuan, with a daily increase of 3.77% [1] - The PD2606 contract rose 36.85 yuan/gram on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 8.91% compared to February 2 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - The COMEX gold main contract rose $289.60 on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 6.19% compared to February 2 [1] - The COMEX silver main contract rose $5.65, with a daily increase of 7.13% [1] - The NYMEX platinum main contract rose $93.80 on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 4.43% compared to February 2 [1] - The NYMEX palladium main contract rose $21.00, with a daily increase of 1.22% [1] Spot Prices - London gold rose $286.88 on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 6.16% compared to the previous day [1] - London silver rose $6.22, with a daily increase of 7.85% [1] - Spot platinum rose $102.00 on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 4.76% compared to the previous day [1] - Spot palladium rose $2.84, with a daily increase of 0.16% [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D rose 69.22 yuan/gram on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 6.74% compared to the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D fell 1820 yuan/kg on February 3, 2026, with a daily decrease of 7.77% compared to the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 rose 50 yuan/gram on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 9.76% compared to the previous day [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was 2.56 yuan, down 15.96 yuan from the previous day, and the historical one - year quantile was 46.10% [1] - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was 154 yuan, up 1566 yuan from the previous day, and the historical one - year quantile was 60.60% [1] - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 24.33 yuan, down 2.72 yuan from the previous day, and the historical one - year quantile was 33.50% [1] - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.50 yuan, up 0.56 yuan from the previous day, and the historical one - year quantile was 95.90% [1] Price Ratios - The COMEX gold/silver ratio was 58.54, down 0.52 from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.88% [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio was 51.00, up 10.38 from the previous day, with a daily increase of 25.57% [1] - The NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.27, up 0.04 from the previous day, with a daily increase of 3.17% [1] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.27, down 0.06 from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 4.72% [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.28%, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.2% [1] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.57%, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.92%, down 0.02 percentage points from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 1.0% [1] - The US dollar index was 97.39, down 0.23 from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.23% [1] - The on - shore RMB exchange rate was 6.9350, down 0.0064 from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.09% [1] Inventory and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 103,032 kg on February 3, 2026, up 3 kg from the previous day, with an increase of 0.00% [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 449,653 kg on February 3, 2026, down 12,970 kg from the previous day, with a decrease of 2.80% [1] - The COMEX gold inventory was 35,755,533 ounces on February 3, 2026, up 130,179 ounces from the previous day, with an increase of 0.37% [1] - The COMEX silver inventory was 403,857,528 ounces on February 3, 2026, down 1,840,067 ounces from the previous day, with a decrease of 0.45% [1] - The COMEX platinum registered warehouse receipts were 18,962,352 ounces on February 3, 2026, down 32,689 ounces from the previous day, with a decrease of 0.17% [1] - The COMEX palladium registered warehouse receipts were 103,070,933 ounces on February 3, 2026, down 946,605 ounces from the previous day, with a decrease of 0.91% [1] - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1,083 tons on February 3, 2026, down 3.72 tons from the previous day, with a decrease of 0.34% [1] - The SLV silver ETF position was 16,438 tons on February 3, 2026, down 108.90 tons from the previous day, with a decrease of 0.66% [1]