Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and energy chemicals. It presents the current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of different products, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses. For example, in the metals sector, it points out that copper's long - term fundamentals are good but short - term prices are affected by inventory structure and geopolitical risks; in the agricultural products sector, it mentions that factors such as supply and demand, policies, and seasonal patterns influence the prices of various products. Summary by Catalog Daily Selections - Alumina: The market maintains a wide - range shock. The core contradiction lies in the tug - of - war between policy expectations and the weak fundamentals. The short - term price is expected to oscillate around the industry's cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton [2]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand weakness persists, and the spot price is under pressure. It is expected to operate stably with a downward trend [3]. - Coking Coal: The coal trading in Shanxi has warmed up, and the Mongolian coal price fluctuates with the futures. Before the Spring Festival, driven by the replenishment demand, it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [4]. - Eggs: The egg price has stabilized and increased, and the supply - demand pressure is not significant. The futures price is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly stronger state in the short term [5]. Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Conditions: On Thursday, the A - share market showed a mixed trend. The main stock index futures contracts had different trends, with IH2603 falling and the other three rising. The basis of the main contracts also showed different states [6][7]. - News: Domestically, the central bank adjusted interest rates and increased the quota of some re - loans. Overseas, the US imposed tariffs on some semiconductors [7][8]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market decreased slightly, and the central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations with a net investment [8]. - Operation Suggestions: It is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate IH on dips. For small - and medium - cap indexes, use bull spreads and control risks [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: The treasury bond futures closed with mixed results, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declined [11]. - Policy: The central bank cut interest rates on re - loans and rediscounts, and mentioned that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [12]. - Operation Suggestions: Unilateral strategies suggest continued waiting, and curve strategies tend to steepen the curve in the medium - term perspective [13]. Precious Metals - Market Review: US economic data, such as the decline in the number of initial jobless claims and the increase in overseas holdings of US Treasury bonds, affected market expectations. The US government's decision on tariffs and geopolitical tensions also influenced precious metal prices [14][17]. - Future Outlook: Gold is expected to maintain a strong - side shock in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average. Silver is expected to operate strongly, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to - long term [17][18]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Index: As of January 12, the SCFIS European line index and the US West route index showed different trends [19]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different performances [19]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot price entering the downward cycle pressured the futures [19]. - Operation Suggestions: It is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is at a high level, and the inventory has increased. The long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term price is affected by factors such as inventory structure and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and cautiously [20][24]. - Alumina: The spot inventory continues to accumulate, and the price oscillates widely. It is recommended to short on rallies [25][27]. - Aluminum: The price is at a high level and oscillates. The market is driven by macro and policy expectations, but the fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait for dips to go long [27][30]. - Aluminum Alloy: The inventory is decreasing, and the price oscillates at a high level. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31][33]. - Zinc: The LME's suspension of zinc delivery from South Korea Zinc boosted the price. The fundamentals show that the supply is tight at the mine end, and the demand is suppressed. It is recommended to go long on dips in the long - term [34][37]. - Tin: The market sentiment has declined, and the price is at a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [37][42]. - Nickel: The price is strong, affected by Indonesia's policy on nickel ore. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand varies in different sectors. It is recommended to operate within a range [42][44]. - Stainless Steel: The price oscillates strongly, mainly driven by the raw material nickel. The supply pressure eases slightly, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate strongly [45][48]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price oscillates and adjusts. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand has certain resilience. It is recommended to wait and see on the long side and consider positive spreads between months [49][53]. - Polysilicon: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to production cuts and demand recovery [53][55]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is at a low - level shock. It is expected to maintain a supply - demand dual - weak pattern in January, and it is necessary to pay attention to polysilicon production changes [56][58]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: The market is in a weak supply - demand state during the off - season, and the price oscillates. It is expected that the steel price will move within a range [58][59]. - Iron Ore: The supply is facing the off - season, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [60][62]. - Coking Coal: The price in Shanxi has risen more than it has fallen, and the trading has warmed up. It is recommended to go long on dips before the Spring Festival and pay attention to arbitrage [63][67]. - Coke: After the fourth round of price cuts, the market is stable. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to arbitrage [68][69]. - Ferrosilicon: The cost provides support, and the supply - demand situation improves marginally. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [70][72]. - Manganese Silicon: The price of manganese ore has risen, and the supply - demand situation has improved. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [73][76]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The market lacks drivers, and the soybean meal oscillates. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the price is expected to oscillate [77][78]. - Live Pigs: The price returns to the oscillating pattern. The supply is relatively abundant in January, and it is recommended to short on rallies after stabilization [79][80]. - Corn: The supply is tight, and the price oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to farmers' selling sentiment and policy releases [81][83]. - Sugar: The international raw sugar price falls, and the domestic market focuses on stocking. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [84][85]. - Cotton: The US cotton price is stable, and the domestic price stops falling and stabilizes. The short - term price may be adjusted [88]. - Eggs: The price is stable and rising, and the supply - demand pressure is not large. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [92]. - Oils: Palm oil leads the decline in the vegetable oil market. Different oils have different price trends and influencing factors [93][95]. - Red Dates: The market trading is weak, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to take a short - side view [96]. - Apples: The market sentiment cools down, and the futures price oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to use put options to protect long positions [97]. Energy Chemicals - PX: The high valuation and downstream production cuts put short - term pressure on PX. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at around 7000 yuan and consider low - long positions in the medium - term [98][99]. - PTA: Similar to PX, it is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to try to go long when the price is below 5000 yuan and consider positive spreads [100][101]. - Short - fiber: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows the raw materials to oscillate. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA and reduce the processing margin when it is high [102][103]. - Bottle - grade Chips: The supply and demand both decrease in January, and the price follows the cost. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA and pay attention to the processing margin range [104][105]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price is under pressure due to seasonal inventory accumulation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at around 4000 yuan for EG2605 and consider reverse spreads [106][107]. - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand situation improves slightly, but the high inventory suppresses the price. It is recommended to short BR2603 on rallies and pay attention to the narrowing spread between EB and BZ [108]. - Styrene: The price is short - term strong, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to short EB03 on rallies and reduce the processing margin [109][110]. - LLDPE: The basis remains stable, and the short - covering sentiment weakens. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions [111][112]. - PP: The number of maintenance increases, and the price is strong. It is recommended to hold the position when the PDH profit expands [113]. - Methanol: The price oscillates due to geopolitical disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see [113]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand weakness persists, and the price is expected to operate stably with a downward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [114][115]. - PVC: The price fluctuates due to export policies. It is recommended to wait and see on short positions [116][117]. - Urea: The price center moves up due to agricultural demand and inventory reduction. It is expected to be strong in the short term [118][119]. - Soda Ash: The production capacity recovers, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to take a short - side view [120][123]. - Glass: The sentiment declines, and the sales rate continues to fall. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term [120][124]. - Natural Rubber: The short - term driving force is limited, and it oscillates within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [124][126]. - Synthetic Rubber: The cost is strong, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the support range and consider long - short arbitrage [127][130].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Facing pressure from high inventory, slow - down in export growth, and policy changes, it may weaken further after potentially breaking through the 4000 - ringgit support. Domestic palm oil may also fall below 8500 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil may oscillate narrowly. In the domestic market, although it is in the Spring Festival stocking season, the supply of soybeans and soybean oil is sufficient, and the spot basis quotation will have limited short - term fluctuations [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by macro - sentiment and international oil price drops, as well as news from Canada, the rapeseed oil futures market is under pressure [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are affected by the strong US dollar and demand concerns but supported by a strong export sales report. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. Zhengzhou cotton may face short - term adjustments, but the overall bullish trend remains [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures continue to decline due to increased sugar production in India and sufficient supply. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [3]. Red Dates - With sufficient supply and weak demand in the 2025/26 production season, the futures price of red dates is running weakly [4]. Apples - In the short - term, the price in the production area is weakly stable, and the market activity in the sales area has declined. In the long - term, high prices may suppress consumption, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak [7][12]. Corn and Corn Starch - The corn price in the Northeast is strong, and in North China, it oscillates narrowly. The demand side has different inventory situations. In the short - term, the corn price is supported by supply tightness and pre - holiday stocking, but the increase is limited by policy auctions [16][17]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is back in an oscillatory pattern. The overall supply in January is expected to be sufficient. The basis is strong, but there is no obvious fundamental positive. It is recommended to short at high levels after the price stabilizes [18]. Meal - USDA's report has a short - term negative impact on the market, but the decline space of CBOT is limited. The domestic meal market is in a loose situation, but the low - level arrival expectation in the first quarter limits the downward space. The market will oscillate in the short - term [21]. Eggs - The egg market is in a situation of overall supply exceeding demand. The pre - holiday stocking drives up demand, but the price may experience short - term digestion pressure and a slight correction. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [25]. Summaries by Catalog Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On January 15, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all declined. The decline rates of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures were - 0.78%, - 1.94%, and - 1.35% respectively [1]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory and warehouse receipts of palm oil decreased, and the inventory of soybean oil and rapeseed oil also showed certain changes [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of cotton 2605 and 2609 decreased, and the ICE cotton price increased slightly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased significantly [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of cotton in Xinjiang and the CC Index increased slightly [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory of Xinjiang cotton is rising, and the export sales of US cotton are strong [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 decreased, and the ICE raw sugar price also declined [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning remained unchanged, and the price in Kunming decreased slightly [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The sugar production in India increased, and the domestic sugar production, sales, and inventory showed different trends [3]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of red dates 2605, 2607, and 2609 all decreased [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of red dates in Cangzhou remained unchanged [4]. Apples - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of apple 2605 and 2610 decreased, and the 5 - 10 spread decreased [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in the main production areas were weakly stable [12]. - **Market Activity**: The arrival volume in the wholesale market increased slightly, and the inventory in the cold storage decreased [7]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn in the Northeast is strong, and in North China, it oscillates narrowly. The demand side has different inventory situations [16]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch increased slightly, and the basis decreased [16]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of pig 2605 and 2603 decreased, and the 3 - 5 spread decreased [18]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [18]. - **Industry Situation**: The slaughter volume decreased slightly, and the prices of piglets and sows increased slightly [18]. Meal - **Price Changes**: On January 16, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures decreased slightly [21]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased, and those of rapeseed meal remained unchanged [21]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads and ratios such as the oil - meal ratio and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread changed slightly [21]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of egg 03 and 04 increased, and the 3 - 4 spread increased [25]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of egg - related products such as egg - laying chicken seedlings and culled chickens increased [25]. - **Industry Situation**: The egg market is in a situation of supply exceeding demand, but the pre - holiday stocking drives up demand [25].

Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No clear core view presented. 3. Summary by Relevant Content - **Futures - Spot Price Spread**: IF futures - spot price spread was -4.83, H was 2.42, IC was -16.47, and IM was -45.38 [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: For example, IF's next - near delivery spread was -0.40, and H's next - near delivery spread was 0.60 [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratio**: For instance, IC/IF was 1.7290, and IC/IH was 0.0080 [1]. Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No clear core view presented. 3. Summary by Relevant Content - **Basis**: TS basis was 1.3432, TF was 1.8720, T was 1.9553, and TL was 0.5772 on January 15, 2026 [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: For example, TS's current - next delivery spread was -0.0040 on January 15, 2026 [2]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: TS - TF was -3.3840, TS - T was -5.6590 on January 15, 2026 [2]. Report 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The short - term news impact weakens, and the market maintains a strong and volatile trend with reduced fluctuations. Gold long positions above the 20 - day moving average can continue to be held, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold to earn time value [3]. - For silver, the cancellation of photovoltaic export tax rebates after April 1 may lead to a "rush to export" situation. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position and lock in profits when the price is high [3]. - Platinum and palladium are expected to continue to rise in the medium - to - long - term. In the short - term, they follow the strong trend of gold [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content - **Domestic Futures Closing Price**: On January 15, AU2602 contract closed at 1035.20 yuan/g, down 0.52% from the previous day; AG2604 contract closed at 22665 yuan/kg, down 0.43% [3]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Price**: COMEX gold closed at 4620.50 dollars/ounce, down 0.29%; COMEX silver closed at 92.21 dollars/ounce, down 1.05% [3]. - **Spot Price**: London gold was at 4615.52 dollars/ounce, down 0.23%; Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1033.92 yuan/g, down 0.36% [3]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was -1.28, and the historical 1 - year quantile was 46.10% [3]. - **Ratio**: COMEX gold/silver ratio was 50.11, up 0.77% [3]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.17%, up 0.5%; 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.56%, up 1.4% [3]. - **Inventory and Position**: Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory remained unchanged at 100152 kg, and silver inventory increased by 1.54% to 638399 kg [3]. Report 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No clear core view presented. 3. Summary by Relevant Content - **Container Shipping Index**: SCFIS (European route) was 1956.39, up 8.94% from January 5; SCFIS (US West route) was 1323.98, up 5.91% [5]. - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Rate**: SCFI comprehensive index was 1647.39, down 0.54% from December 26; SCFI (European) was 1719 dollars/TEU, up 1.72% [5]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: EC2602 contract closed at 1719.0 points, up 0.06% on January 15; the basis of the main contract was 431.5, up 1.82% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply was 3369.42 million TEU on January 15, almost unchanged from the previous day; Shanghai port's on - time rate was 41.81, up 4.53% in December [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Report Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Market short - covering sentiment cooled, spot trading worsened. For PE, HD - LLDPE spread narrowed, with increased marginal supply of LLDPE and weakening downstream demand in the off - season. For PP, supply and demand were both weak, with more maintenance, expected destocking in January, and improved balance. Pay attention to the implementation of future maintenance [2]. Methanol Industry - Methanol futures opened lower and then fluctuated narrowly, with light spot trading. Inland prices are expected to fluctuate, while port prices are under pressure due to factors such as low MTO profits and potential device maintenance [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene has a weak short - term supply - demand pattern but is supported by the strong performance of downstream styrene. Styrene has short - term supply shortages but may accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival [8]. Natural Rubber Industry - Supply: Domestic production is ending, and raw material prices are rising. Demand: Some semi - steel tire export orders are increasing, and inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [9][10]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. Glass futures are also expected to decline, with weakening supply and demand in the off - season [11]. Urea Industry - Urea supply is high, but short - term regional agricultural demand boosts market confidence. Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream agricultural demand and plant restart schedules [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak, with increased supply and lack of demand improvement. PVC fundamentals are under pressure, with high supply, low demand, and inventory accumulation [13]. LPG Industry - No specific view provided in the content Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices fell on Thursday. Geopolitical risks have eased, and the supply - demand outlook is weak. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [17]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the Spring Festival and may be tight in the second quarter. PTA and MEG are expected to have weak supply - demand in January and February. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by raw materials [19]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: L2605 and L2609 closed down, PP2605 slightly up, PP2609 down. Some spreads and basis had significant changes [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased, while PE device and downstream weighted开工率 decreased, and PP device开工率 slightly increased [2]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: MA2605 and MA2609 closed down, with significant changes in some spreads and basis [5]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased slightly, while port and social inventories decreased. Upstream and downstream开工率 had different changes [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: Many prices such as crude oil, pure benzene, and styrene decreased, with some spreads and basis changing [8]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 increased, while some decreased. Pure benzene port inventory reached a record high, and styrene port inventory decreased [8]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Price Changes**: Spot prices of natural rubber decreased, and some spreads changed significantly [9]. - **Production,开工率, and Inventory**: Production in some regions changed, tire开工率 increased, and inventory in China continued to accumulate [9]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Price Changes**: Glass and soda ash prices were mostly stable, with some futures prices down [11]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Soda ash production increased, demand was weak, and inventory was high. Glass supply and demand were weak, and inventory was still relatively high year - on - year [11]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: Futures prices fluctuated down, and spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply was high, industrial demand was stable, and agricultural demand in some regions increased [12]. - **Inventory**: Factory and port inventories decreased [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Price Changes**: Caustic soda and PVC prices decreased slightly, with some spreads and basis changing [13]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Caustic soda supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory increased in some regions. PVC supply was stable, demand was low, and inventory accumulated [13]. LPG Industry - **Price Changes**: Some futures prices changed slightly, and spot prices were stable [15]. - **Inventory and开工率**: LPG refinery and port inventories decreased slightly, and some开工率 increased while some decreased [15]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent and WTI prices decreased, while SC increased slightly. Many refined oil product prices decreased [17]. - **Spread Changes**: Some spreads such as Brent - WTI changed [17]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: Upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry chain mostly decreased, with changes in some spreads and basis [19]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 increased slightly while some decreased. MEG port inventory increased, and the arrival forecast decreased [19].

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2026年1月16日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品中 | 现值 | FUTCT | 张跃 | 其方 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3290 | 3300 | -10 | 125 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3210 | -10 | 35 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3280 | 3280 | 0 | 115 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3160 | 3158 | 2 | 130 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3206 | 3202 | 4 | 84 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3165 | 3134 | 31 | 125 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3280 | 3270 | 10 | -49 | 元/旺 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3190 | 3190 | 0 | -139 | | | 热卷现货(华 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term prices fluctuate greatly due to market sentiment, and cautious participation is recommended. Supply: Myanmar's tin ore imports increased significantly in November, and Indonesia's approved export quota for 2026 is about 60,000 tons. Demand: Tin solder enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more restricted [1]. Industrial Silicon - The industry is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand. The decline in production is gradually being implemented. Pay attention to the change in polysilicon production and the lower support. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range likely to be between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [3]. Polysilicon - The spot price is stable, and the futures are weakly volatile. There is support at the 48,000 yuan/ton level. The market has a certain bottom - support as silicon wafer and polysilicon supply and demand are basically matched. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to production cuts and downstream demand recovery [4]. Copper - The medium - and long - term fundamentals are good, and the bottom center is gradually rising. In the short term, the price remains high due to the global inventory imbalance and supply concerns. Pay attention to the change in CL premium, LME inventory, and the 99,000 - 100,000 support [7]. Zinc - The LME's suspension of zinc ingot delivery from Korea Zinc led to a supply - tightening expectation. The price is supported by the tight ore supply, but there is also pressure from imported ore supply and weak demand. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, and the 24,000 support [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The market showed a high - level correction. The cost is the main driving factor, but the fundamentals are in a weak supply - demand pattern. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, with the reference range of 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum - The price is driven by macro and policy expectations, but the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock, with the reference range of 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to inventory accumulation, downstream consumption, and overseas events [12]. Nickel - The market is affected by Indonesia's nickel ore policy adjustment and geopolitical factors. The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, with the main center reference range of 140,000 - 152,000 yuan [13]. Stainless Steel - The market is driven by raw material nickel. The supply pressure eases slightly, and the cost support is strengthened, but the demand is weak. It is expected to be strongly volatile, with the reference range of 13,800 - 14,500 yuan [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures are in shock adjustment. The production is slightly increasing, and the demand has certain resilience. The short - term is expected to be in a wide - range shock, with the reference range of 155,000 - 165,000 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and pay attention to positive spread opportunities [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin rose 5.06% to 426,000 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased 12.50% to 700 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable, and the basis of some varieties changed [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type materials was stable, and the basis of N - type materials increased 4.74% [4]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased 1.29% to 102,575 yuan/ton, and the premium increased [7]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 3.42% to 25,410 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 decreased 0.83% to 24,000 yuan/ton, and the scrap - to - refined spread of some varieties changed [11]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased 1.95% to 24,190 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [12]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 2.46% to 150,050 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The prices of 304/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan rose, and the basis increased [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased 2.45% to 159,000 yuan/ton, and the basis changed [17]. Inter - month Spread - **Tin**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed, with some spreads decreasing and some increasing [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spreads of the main contract and other contracts changed, with some spreads increasing and some decreasing [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The spreads of contracts such as the main contract, near - month - to - first - continuous, etc. changed significantly [4]. - **Copper**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [7]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [11]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads of AL 2602 - 2603, AL 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [12]. - **Nickel**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [17]. Fundamental Data - **Tin**: In November, tin ore imports increased 29.81%, and in December, SMM refined tin production decreased 0.06%. The开工率 of some sectors changed [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In December, the national industrial silicon production decreased 1.15%, and the开工 rates of different regions changed. The production of related downstream products and export volume also changed [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The weekly and monthly production, import, and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the inventory also changed [4]. - **Copper**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased 6.80%, and in November, the import volume decreased 3.90%. The开工 rate of copper rod production and inventory changed [7]. - **Zinc**: In December, refined zinc production decreased 7.24%, and in November, the import volume decreased 3.22%. The开工 rates of related sectors and inventory changed [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots changed, and the开工 rates of different - sized enterprises and inventory changed [11]. - **Aluminum**: In December, the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased, and the import and export volumes of electrolytic aluminum changed. The开工 rates of related sectors and inventory changed [12]. - **Nickel**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased 9.38%, and the import volume increased 30.08%. The inventory changed [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia changed, and the import, export, and inventory changed [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In December, the production and demand of lithium carbonate changed, and the import, export, and inventory changed [17]. Inventory Change - **Tin**: SHEF inventory decreased 12.61%, social inventory decreased 12.23%, and SHEF warehouse receipts increased 34.04% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Social inventory increased 0.54%, and warehouse receipt inventory was basically stable [3]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon inventory increased 6.29%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased 5.53% [4]. - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory increased 17.20%, and SHFE inventory increased 24.22% [7]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased 0.08%, and LME inventory was basically stable [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy decreased 1.41%, and the daily inventory of some regions changed [11]. - **Aluminum**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased, and LME inventory decreased 0.41% [12]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory increased 2.43%, social inventory increased 3.61%, and LME inventory increased 0.22% [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased 1.47%, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased 0.89% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased 12.23%, and the upstream and downstream inventories changed [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Not mentioned in the provided content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals and Minerals - **Ferroalloys**: The price of 72-silicon ferroalloy qualified blocks in Inner Mongolia - Tianjin warehouse receipts increased by 2.56% to 5728, and its historical quantile is 54.50%. The price of 6517-silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia - Hubei warehouse receipts is 6517 [1]. - **Steel Products**: The price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai increased by 4.11% to 3160, and the price of Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai decreased by 0.151% to 3307. The price of rebar (RB2605) is 3290, and the price of hot - rolled coil (HC2605) is 3290 [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore (I2605) increased by 7.49% to 874, and the historical quantile is 47.70%. The converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port is 1745, with a historical quantile of 65.45% [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The price of coke (J2605) and the converted price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port are provided, and the price of coking coal (JM2605) is 1156, and the converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi is 1188 [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The price of copper (CU2603) is 102575, the price of aluminum (AL2603) decreased by 0.76% to 24375, and the price of zinc (ZN2603) is 25090. The price of tin (SN2602) decreased by 7000, and the price of nickel is 146500. The price of stainless steel (SS2603) is 14570, the price of lithium carbonate (LC2605) decreased by 2.59% to 163220, and the price of industrial silicon (SISEOF) increased by 5.96% to 8730 [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The price of gold (AU2602) is 1035.2, and the price of silver (AG2604) is 22684.0 [1]. Agricultural Products - The price of soybean meal (M2605) is 3090, the price of soybean oil (Y2605) is 7938.0, the price of palm oil (P2605) is 8540, the price of rapeseed meal (RM605) is 2460, the price of rapeseed oil (Oleos) is 9670, the price of corn (C2603) is 2355, the price of corn starch (CS2603) is 2565.0, the price of live pigs (H2603) is 11950.0, the price of eggs (JD2603) is 3066.0, the price of cotton (CF605) is 15700, the price of sugar (SR605) is 5390, the price of apples (AP605) is 9807.0, and the price of red dates (CJ605) is - 840.0 [1]. Energy and Chemicals - The price of p - xylene (PX603) is 7130.0, the price of PTA (TA605) is 5048.0, the price of ethylene glycol (EG2605) is 3675.0, the price of polyester staple fiber (PF603) is 6394.0, the price of styrene (EB2602) is 7235.0, the price of methanol (MA605) is 2273.0, the price of urea (UR605) is 1801.0, the price of LLDPE (L2605) is 6785.0, the price of PP (PP2605) is 6592.0, the price of PVC (V2605) is 4868.0, the price of caustic soda (SH603) is 2056.0, the price of LPG (PG2603) is 4233.0, the price of asphalt (BU2603) is 3167.0, the price of butadiene rubber (BR2603) is 12100.0, the price of float glass (FG605) is 936.0, the price of soda ash (SA605) is 1193.0, and the price of natural rubber (RU2605) is 15995.0 [1]. Financial Futures - The price of IF2603.CFE is 4751.4, the price of IH2603.CFE is 3105.6, the price of IC2603.CFE is 8206.8, the price of IM2603.CFE is 8195.4, the price of 2 - year bond (TS2603) is 100.07, the price of 5 - year bond (TF2603) is 105.76, the price of 10 - year bond (T2603) is 108.05, and the price of 30 - year bond (TL2603) is 111.26 [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market may be more affected by the impact of US economic data on the Fed's policy expectations and geopolitical situation disturbances. In the short - term, the influence of news is weakening, the market maintains a relatively strong shock but the volatility declines. For gold, those holding long positions above the 20 - day moving average can continue to hold, and selling out - of - the - money put options can earn time value [1]. - For silver, the cancellation of photovoltaic export tax rebates by the country after April 1 may bring the "rush to export" effect again, advancing the demand for silver powder and intensifying the supply - structural shortage. Short - term fluctuations are still volatile, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips with light positions, while long positions should lock in profits in time when the price is high [1]. - For platinum and palladium, due to their strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals and the fact that their prices are still undervalued compared to gold, capital promotes value reshaping. It is expected to continue to rise in the medium - and long - term. In the short - term, market speculative sentiment weakens, the volatility narrows, but it still follows the relatively strong shock of gold. It is recommended to buy platinum on dips with light positions around the 20 - day moving average [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1035.20 yuan/gram on January 15, down 0.52% from the previous day [1]. - AG2604 contract closed at 22665 yuan/kilogram on January 15, down 0.43% from the previous day [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 609.05 yuan/gram on January 15, down 2.21% from the previous day [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 478.60 yuan/gram on January 15, down 5.25% from the previous day [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4620.50 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.29% from the previous day [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 92.21 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 1.05% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2415.80 dollars/ounce on January 15, up 0.55% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1865.50 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.90% from the previous day [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 4615.52 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.23% from the previous day [1]. - London silver was at 92.40 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.65% from the previous day [1]. - Spot platinum was at 2408.00 dollars/ounce on January 15, up 0.46% from the previous day [1]. - Spot palladium was at 1812.00 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 1.79% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D was at 1033.92 yuan/gram on January 15, down 0.36% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D was at 22684 yuan/kilogram on January 15, down 0.36% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 597 yuan/gram on January 15, down 0.34% from the previous day [1]. Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 1.28, up 1.73 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1]. - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was 19, up 17 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1]. - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 4.98, up 2.82 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 87.80% [1]. - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.19, up 0.37 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 90.00% [1]. Price Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 50.11 on January 15, up 0.77% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver was 45.67 on January 15, down 0.09% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.29 on January 15, up 1.46% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium was 1.27 on January 15, up 3.21% from the previous day [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.17% on January 15, up 0.5% from the previous day [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.56% on January 15, up 1.4% from the previous day [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.88% on January 15, up 1.1% from the previous day [1]. - The US dollar index was 99.34 on January 15, up 0.27% from the previous day [1]. - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9631 on January 15, down 0.12% from the previous day [1]. Inventory and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 100152 kilograms on January 15, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 638399 kilograms on January 15, up 1.54% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 36132901 ounces on January 15, down 0.23% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 433382110 ounces on January 15, down 0.23% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 18838070 ounces on January 15, down 2.31% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 122741960 ounces on January 15, down 0.20% from the previous day [1]. - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1075 tons on January 15, up 0.05% from the previous day [1]. - The SLV silver ETF position was 16062 tons on January 15, down 1.11% from the previous day [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The current log market has weak supply and demand, with spot prices at a low level. In the Jiangsu region, due to low inventory, there is a shortage of some specifications of spot goods, leading to price increases. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and the expectation of a decrease in later shipments. However, the weak demand situation is difficult to change, and the upside potential is limited. Overall, there is insufficient contradiction and limited upward and downward drivers. It is expected that the futures market will mainly fluctuate in the range of 760 - 800. If the price rebounds to the high end of the range, short - selling can be considered [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: The prices of log contracts such as log2601, log2603, log2605, and log2607 showed small increases or remained unchanged on January 15 compared to January 14, with the largest increase of 0.19% for log2607. The main contract basis decreased by 1.0 [1] - Spot prices: The prices of many types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained stable, except for the 4A small and medium - sized radiata pine in Taicang Port, which increased by 1.47% and 1.35% respectively. The ex - port quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 meters remained unchanged [1] 3.2 Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased slightly from 6.967 on January 15 to 6.963 on January 16, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 0.49 yuan to 754.32 yuan [1] 3.3 Supply: Monthly - Port inventory increased by 14.8 million cubic meters to 204.0 million cubic meters in December compared to November, a growth rate of 7.82%. The number of ships in the port increased by 6 to 55, a growth rate of 12.24% [1] 3.4 Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 9, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 269 million cubic meters, an increase of 2 million cubic meters compared to January 2, with a growth rate of 0.75%. The inventory in Shandong was 196 million cubic meters, an increase of 1 million cubic meters compared to January 2, with a growth rate of 0.51% [1] 3.5 Demand - As of January 9, the daily average log出库 volume in China was 5.75 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.1 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The daily average log出库 volume in Shandong decreased by 0.1 million cubic meters to 2.79 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3%, while that in Jiangsu increased by 0.18 million cubic meters to 2.35 million cubic meters, an increase of 8% [2] 3.6 Forecast of Arrival of New Logs - From January 12 - January 18, 2026, 15 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 67%. The total arrival volume is about 48.6 million cubic meters, an increase of 18.1 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 59% [2]

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2603 | 总持仓大幅下降 | 中信多空头各减仓超 3000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2603 | 总持仓明显下降 | 国君多空头各减仓超千手 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2603 | 总持仓明显下降 | 中信空头减仓近 3000 手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2603 | 总持仓大幅下降 | 中信国君多空头均大幅减仓 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -8,845.0 -2,067.0 -4,815.0 -9,064.0 -13,642.0 -5,892.0 -9,679.0 -19,793.0 -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持仓变动 ...