广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 7 月 24 日星期四 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周三，早盘 A 股震荡起伏，午后冲高回落。截至收盘，上证指数涨 0.01%，报 3582.30 点。深成指跌 0.37%，创业板指跌 0.01%，沪深 300 涨 0.02%、上证 50 涨 0.32%，中证 500 跌 0.27%、中证 100 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The market saw double destocking in both inland and ports. Reasons include slower port unloading and improved MTO profits leading to port purchases. Inland prices fluctuated slightly, with high maintenance losses in July and复产 expectations later. Demand was restricted by the traditional off - season, and new capacity launches affected the market. In ports, the basis strengthened, and with the return of Iranian production, imports were expected to be 1.25 million tons in July and decline slightly in August. MTO maintenance was uncertain after profit repair [1]. - **Urea**: The market was in a state of 'strong expectation vs. weak reality'. The potential for large - scale and long - term maintenance in major production areas was a potential positive factor, but demand was in a lull. The market was mainly affected by the contradiction between supply contraction expectations and weak actual demand, and policy sentiment also had an impact. Future price breakthroughs depend on substantial improvement in demand [16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: In July, the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improved slightly, but with high import expectations and port inventory, its own driving force was limited. Short - term trends may be under pressure. For styrene, the supply - demand outlook was weak, port inventory increased, and the basis weakened. Short - term trends may also be under pressure [18]. - **Polyolefins**: In terms of valuation, marginal profits were gradually recovering, but supply and demand for PP and PE both contracted, and inventories accumulated while demand remained weak. In the dynamic dimension, PP maintenance reached its peak, PE maintenance first increased and then decreased, and imports were still scarce. There was a seasonal improvement in demand at the end of July. Strategically, the market sentiment was warm, with PP expected to fluctuate weakly and PE to be bought within a range [22]. - **Crude Oil**: Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly due to the structural contradiction between crude oil destocking and macro - level suppression of long - term demand. Although EIA data showed a large reduction in crude oil inventory, the inventory structure was differentiated. The market was also concerned about tariff frictions, which restricted the upward space of oil prices. Short - term trends were likely to maintain a weak oscillation [25]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, although supply was generally stable, demand support was limited, and short - term trends may be under pressure. PTA supply - demand was expected to be weak, and short - term trends may also face pressure. MEG supply - demand was expected to improve in the short term, with support at the bottom. Short - fiber supply and demand were both weak, and the absolute price fluctuated with raw materials. Bottle - chip supply - demand showed some improvement, but absolute prices still followed raw materials [29]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: For caustic soda, the supply - demand contradiction was limited, but high profits led to high production. Downstream non - aluminum demand was in a relative off - season, but there was phased restocking. Short - term macro - level disturbances increased trading risks, and it was recommended to take profits on previous long positions. For PVC, the market was in a season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with no significant improvement in fundamentals. Short - term trading was mainly affected by macro - level sentiment, and it was recommended to wait and see [47]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices decreased, while the MA91 spread and some regional spreads changed. Spot prices in different regions also showed various fluctuations [1]. - **Inventory**: Middle - sized methanol enterprises' inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all decreased [1]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rates decreased, while some downstream operating rates had different changes [1]. Urea - **Futures**: Futures closing prices of different contracts decreased, and contract spreads changed [9][10]. - **Positions**: Long and short positions of the top 20 decreased, and the long - short ratio slightly increased [11]. - **Raw Materials and Spot**: Some upstream raw material prices were stable, while spot prices in different regions showed small fluctuations [12]. - **Downstream Products**: Prices of some downstream products were stable, and the fertilizer market also had price changes [14][15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, plant operating rates, and inventory levels had different changes [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices, and prices of related products such as CFR Japan naphtha and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene changed. Spreads between products also changed [18]. - **Styrene - Related**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased, and related spreads and cash flows changed [18]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased, and industry operating rates had different trends [18]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot**: Futures closing prices of different contracts decreased, and spot prices in different regions also declined. Spreads and basis also changed [22]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, and inventory levels in different sectors increased [22]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices and related spreads changed [25]. - **Refined Oil**: Refined oil prices, spreads, and cracking spreads had different fluctuations [25]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream raw material prices such as Brent crude oil and PX changed, and downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also showed various trends [29]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: MEG port inventory and arrival expectations, and industry operating rates in different segments had different changes [29]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures**: Spot and futures prices of PVC and caustic soda changed, and spreads and basis also had different trends [47]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side operating rates and profit levels, and demand - side downstream operating rates and inventory levels had different changes [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. The market is optimistic about the potential for supply - side clearance, which has boosted copper prices. However, demand has weakened with the price rebound, and there is a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. Domestic macro - policies and low inventories support copper prices. The main reference price range is 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term prices are expected to be strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but there are risks such as policy changes in Guinea and potential squeezes. Mid - term, it is advisable to short at high prices. For aluminum, short - term prices are under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price reference range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction inflection points and demand changes [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [9]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [11]. Tin - Supply - side restoration is expected as tin mines in Myanmar resume production. However, due to positive market sentiment, short positions should be avoided for now. After the sentiment stabilizes, short at high prices [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy directions and steel - mill production reduction rhythms [17]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is characterized by emotional differentiation, and trading on price volatility can be considered. The main contract price range is 68,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton. Mid - term, a hedging strategy at high prices is recommended. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and upstream actions [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.04% to 79,790 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.34 million tons (-0.30%) to 1.1349 million tons, and imports increased by 47,400 tons (18.74%) to 300,500 tons. The opening rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 7.22 percentage points to 74.22% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.43% to 20,850 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production decreased by 14,000 tons (-0.19%) to 7.2581 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 120,000 tons (-3.22%) to 3.609 million tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,250 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 50 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 9,000 tons (1.49%) to 615,000 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6,000 tons (-2.30%) to 255,000 tons [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.18% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 35,700 tons (6.50%) to 585,100 tons, and imports increased by 9,300 tons (34.97%) to 36,100 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.40% to 124,050 yuan/ton. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, China's refined nickel production decreased by 3,550 tons (-10.04%) to 31,800 tons, and imports increased by 10,325 tons (116.90%) to 19,157 tons [11]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.98% to 268,900 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 1,538 tons (-11.44%) to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 1,030 tons (-6.94%) to 13,810 tons [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 68,300 tons (-3.83%) to 1.7133 million tons, and imports decreased by 16,000 tons (-12.48%) to 109,500 tons [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.95% to 70,450 yuan/ton. The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 6,010 tons (8.34%) to 78,090 tons, and demand decreased by 145 tons (-0.15%) to 93,815 tons [20].

Report 1: Glass and Soda Ash Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the market sentiment declined, and soda ash prices followed suit. Coal production cuts boosted market bullish sentiment, and the market has expectations for the elimination of backward production capacity. The overall macro - market sentiment is warm, and the stock market and commodities are rebounding. However, soda ash still has an obvious oversupply situation, and glass also faces over - capacity issues. Both markets need to track the implementation of relevant policies [1]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - **Glass**:华北报价 rose 0.83% to 1210 yuan/ton,华东报价 rose 0.80% to 1260 yuan/ton,华中报价 rose 2.63% to 1170 yuan/ton, and华南报价 remained unchanged at 1290 yuan/ton. Glass 2505 fell 2.21% to 1372 yuan/ton, and glass 2509 fell 3.04% to 1211 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 20.20% [1]. - **Soda Ash**:华东报价 rose 4.07% to 1280 yuan/ton,华中报价 rose 4.17% to 1250 yuan/ton. Soda ash 2505 fell 1.63% to 1452 yuan/ton, and soda ash 2509 fell 2.51% to 1338 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 19.05% [1]. Supply - Soda ash production rate increased by 3.42% to 84.10%, and weekly output increased by 3.41% to 73.32 million tons. Float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.38% to 15.78 million tons, and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 2.70% to 91840 tons [1]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 3.22% to 6493.90 million cubic meters. Soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.26% to 190.56 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 3.61% to 24.66 million tons. Glass factory soda ash inventory days increased by 11.34% to 23.4 days [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 2.99% to - 18.73%, construction area decreased by 7.56% to - 33.33%, completion area increased by 15.67% to - 11.68%, and sales area increased by 12.13% to - 1.55% [1]. Report 2: Log Futures Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the sentiment of commodities has improved under the tone of anti - involution and stable growth, and log futures rose significantly last week. Currently, log demand is in the off - season, and weak demand drags down spot prices. In the context of strong expectations, attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, log supply, and inventory. Buying on dips can be considered [2]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - Log 2507 fell 1.79% to 818 yuan/cubic meter, log 2509 fell 1.90% to 823 yuan/cubic meter, log 2511 fell 2.05% to 826 yuan/cubic meter, and log 2601 fell to 835.5 yuan/cubic meter. The 9 - 11 spread increased by 2.5 to - 3 yuan/cubic meter, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.5 to - 12.5 yuan/cubic meter [2]. Supply and Demand - Last week, inventory started to accumulate, increasing by 7 million cubic meters. As of July 18, the total national coniferous log inventory was 329 million cubic meters. Demand increased by 0.36 million cubic meters last week. As of July 18, the average daily log delivery volume was 6.24 million cubic meters [2]. Report 3: Polysilicon Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The current futures price has reached the previous expectation, and the arbitrage window is open. The upstream enterprises have hedging needs. With the approaching of the delivery month, investors need to pay attention to position control and risk management. Whether the price will rise further in the long - term depends on the smoothness of the price transmission mechanism and the implementation of capacity integration and production regulation [3]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - N - type granular silicon average price rose 2.33% to 44000 yuan/ton, N - type material basis decreased by 31.40% to - 4080 yuan/ton. PS2506 rose 1.99% to 50080 yuan/ton, and some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [3]. Fundamental Data - Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 3.48% to 11.10 GM, and weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.88% to 2.30 million tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 million tons, and silicon wafer production increased by 1.34% to 58.84 GW [3]. Inventory - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 9.78% to 24.90 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 11.64% to 16.02 GM [3]. Report 4: Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Driven by the coking coal futures, industrial silicon futures opened higher but then followed the decline of polysilicon and coking coal futures. The industry profit has been repaired, and the arbitrage window is open. However, the fundamental demand is weakening, and attention should be paid to the inventory pressure. If the prices of polysilicon and coking coal futures fall, the price of industrial silicon will also decline, and buying put options can be considered [4]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon rose 3.09% to 10000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 955.56% to 475 yuan/ton. Some month - to - month spreads changed, with 2508 - 2509 rising 20.00% to - 20 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 30.08 million tons, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37% to 51.23%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 13.75% to 20.93 million tons, and polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 million tons [4]. Inventory - Social inventory decreased by 0.73% to 54.70 million tons, and warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.11% to 25.05 million tons [4]. Report 5: Natural Rubber Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia and typhoons in Hainan, the supply is disrupted, and rubber prices are rebounding. The overall demand is stable, and the terminal demand increment is limited. Short - term observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation after the weather improves in the main producing areas [6]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber remained unchanged at 14950 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis increased by 50.00% to - 55 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5.66% to - 750 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In May, Thailand's production increased by 157.52% to 272.20 thousand tons, and China's production increased by 67.02% to 97.00 thousand tons. The start - up rate of semi - steel tires increased by 3.07% to 75.99%, and the start - up rate of all - steel tires increased by 0.54% to 65.10% [6]. Inventory - Bonded area inventory increased by 0.63% to 636383 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange factory warehouse futures inventory decreased by 0.82% to 36691 tons [6].

Report Summary Core Information - The report is a daily spread report for all varieties dated July 24, 2025, with data from Wind, Mysteel, and GF Futures Research Institute [2][3][4] Commodity Analysis Ferrous Metals - Silicon iron (SF509) has a futures price of 5878, a basis rate of 1.38%, and a historical quantile of 63.70% [1] - Silicon manganese (SM509) has a futures price of 6020, a basis rate of 82, and a historical quantile of 40.50% [1] - HRB400 20mm rebar (RB2510) futures price is 3380, with a basis rate of 0.35% and a historical quantile of 22.40% [1] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510) futures price is 3438 [1] - Iron ore (I2509) futures price is 843, with a basis rate of - 12.15% and a historical quantile of 27.50% [1] - Coke (J2509) futures price is 1500, with a basis rate of 3.47% [1] - Coking coal (JM2509) futures price is 1053, with a basis rate of - 83 and a historical quantile of 2.40% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2509) has a futures price of 79790, a basis rate of 0.25%, and a historical quantile of 64.16% [1] - Aluminum (AL2509) futures price is 20850, with a basis rate of 0.29% and a historical quantile of 65.83% [1] - Alumina (AO2509) futures price is 3239, with a basis rate of - 3.45% and a historical quantile of 14.75% [1] - Zinc (ZN2509) futures price is 22750, with a basis rate of - 0.98% and a historical quantile of 8.75% [1] - Tin (SN2508) futures price is 268900, with a basis rate of 0.13% and a historical quantile of 58.12% [1] - Nickel (NI5509) futures price is 123450, with a basis rate of 0.06% and a historical quantile of 59.16% [1] - Stainless steel (SS2509) futures price is 13070, with a basis rate of 1.32% and a historical quantile of 37.98% [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2510) has a futures price of 792.9, a basis rate of - 0.59%, and a historical quantile of 6.20% [1] - Silver (AG2510) futures price is 9475.0, with a basis rate of - 0.18% and a historical quantile of 49.60% [1] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal (M2509) has a futures price of 2920, a basis rate of - 5.65%, and a historical quantile of 5.20% [1] - Soybean oil (Y2509) futures price is 8150, with a basis rate of 0.94% and a historical quantile of 6.80% [1] - Palm oil (P2509) futures price is 9040, with a basis rate of 0.51% and a historical quantile of 21.90% [1] - Rapeseed meal (RM509) futures price is 2758.0, with a basis rate of - 4.64% and a historical quantile of 13.10% [1] - Rapeseed oil (O1509) futures price is 9580, with a basis rate of 1.31% and a historical quantile of 48.00% [1] - Corn (C2509) futures price is 2360, with a basis rate of 1.68% and a historical quantile of 66.20% [1] - Corn starch (CS2509) futures price is 2675.0, with a basis rate of 2.43% and a historical quantile of 28.70% [1] - Live pigs (LH2509) futures price is 14590.0, with a basis rate of - 1.90% and a historical quantile of 36.40% [1] - Eggs (JD2509) futures price is 3220, with a basis rate of - 11.47% and a historical quantile of 8.60% [1] - Cotton (CF509) futures price is 15411, with a basis rate of 8.68% and a historical quantile of 84.80% [1] - Sugar (SR509) futures price is 6120, with a basis rate of 4.90% and a historical quantile of 55.00% [1] - Apples (AP510) futures price is 7956.0, with a basis rate of 51.30% [1] - Red dates (C1601) futures price is 8300, with a basis rate of - 2166% and a historical quantile of 7.90% [1] Energy and Chemicals - Para - xylene (PX509) has a futures price of 6860.0, a basis rate of 1.03%, and a historical quantile of 48.90% [1] - PTA (TA509) futures price is 4784.0, with a basis rate of - 0.08% and a historical quantile of 49.60% [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG2509) futures price is 4436.0, with a basis rate of 1.44% and a historical quantile of 83.10% [1] - Polyester fiber (PF509) futures price is 6432.0, with a basis rate of 2.61% and a historical quantile of 79.60% [1] - Styrene (EB2509) futures price is 7397.0, with a basis rate of 0.72% and a historical quantile of 37.70% [1] - Methanol (MA509) futures price is 2411.0, with a basis rate of 0.17% and a historical quantile of 42.00% [1] - Urea (UR509) futures price is 1773.0, with a basis rate of 3.21% and a historical quantile of 29.80% [1] - LLDPE (L2509) futures price is 7288.0, with a basis rate of - 0.11% and a historical quantile of 17.90% [1] - PP (PP2509) futures price is 7096.0, with a basis rate of 0.55% and a historical quantile of 32.50% [1] - PVC (V2509) futures price is 5070.0, with a basis rate of - 1.5% and a historical quantile of 59.80% [1] - Caustic soda (SH209) futures price is 2593.8, with a basis rate of - 1.90% and a historical quantile of 41.80% [1] - LPG (PG2509) futures price is 4548.0, with a basis rate of 14.65% and a historical quantile of 74.40% [1] - Asphalt (BU2509) futures price is 3845.0, with a basis rate of 6.98% and a historical quantile of 86.30% [1] - Butadiene rubber (BR2509) futures price is 11875.0, with a basis rate of 1.05% and a historical quantile of 41.50% [1] - Glass (FG509) futures price is 1168.0, with a basis rate of - 3.68% and a historical quantile of 51.05% [1] - Soda ash (SA509) futures price is 1338.0, with a basis rate of - 0.75% and a historical quantile of 26.68% [1] - Natural rubber (RU2509) futures price is 14950.0, with a basis rate of - 0.37% and a historical quantile of 91.66% [1] Financial Futures - IF2509.CFE has a futures price of 4119.8, a basis rate of - 0.26%, and a historical quantile of 35.20% [1] - IH2509.CFE futures price is 2802.8, with a basis rate of 0.06% and a historical quantile of 67.10% [1] - IC2509.CFE futures price is 6196.8, with a basis rate of - 1.25% and a historical quantile of 6.20% [1] - IM2509.CFE futures price is 6607.2, with a basis rate of - 1.6% and a historical quantile of 11.80% [1] - 2 - year bond (TS2509) futures price is 102.38, with a basis rate of - 0.01% and a historical quantile of 23.40% [1] - 5 - year bond (TF2509) futures price is 100.75, with a basis rate of 0.00% and a historical quantile of 27.30% [1] - 10 - year bond (T2509) futures price is 100.89, with a basis rate of 0.02% and a historical quantile of 17.80% [1] - 30 - year bond (TL2509) futures price is 119.35, with a basis rate of 0.22% and a historical quantile of 34.60% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily tracking and analysis of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, presenting the changes in total positions, main contract positions, and the significant changes in the top 20 seats [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 23, the total position of the IF variety increased by 1,510 lots, while the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 1,146 lots [5]. - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Among the top twenty long - position seats on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 46,618 lots. Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the most long - position increases, adding 724 lots, and CITIC Futures had the most long - position decreases, reducing 1,806 lots [6]. - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: Among the top twenty short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 50,721 lots. GF Futures had the most short - position increases, adding 856 lots, and CITIC Futures had the most short - position decreases, reducing 862 lots [8]. IH - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 23, the total position of the IH variety decreased by 1,022 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 1,357 lots [11]. - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Among the top twenty long - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 12,196 lots. GF Futures had the most long - position increases, adding 235 lots, and Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decreases, reducing 1,125 lots [12]. - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: Among the top twenty short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 21,225 lots. China Merchants Futures had the most short - position increases, adding 358 lots, and Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decreases, reducing 941 lots [13]. IC - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 23, the total position of the IC variety increased by 2,910 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 399 lots [17]. - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Among the top twenty long - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 34,605 lots. CITIC Futures had the most long - position increases, adding 970 lots, and Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decreases, reducing 996 lots [18]. - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: Among the top twenty short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 41,595 lots. CITIC Futures had the most short - position increases, adding 858 lots, and China Merchants Futures had the most short - position decreases, reducing 696 lots [19]. IM - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 23, the total position of the IM variety increased by 9,947 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 3,423 lots [23]. - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Among the top twenty long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 45,127 lots. CITIC Futures had the most long - position increases, adding 2,705 lots, and Guoxin Futures had the most long - position decreases, reducing 502 lots [23]. - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: Among the top twenty short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 68,013 lots. CITIC Futures had the most short - position increases, adding 4,125 lots, and China Merchants Futures had the most short - position decreases, reducing 279 lots [25].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific trading suggestions for various futures varieties: - **Long Positions**: Steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, alumina, urea, PX, PTA, bottle chips, ethanol, LLDPE, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, rubber, industrial silicon, polysilicon [2] - **Short Positions**: IM futures long positions (to be gradually liquidated), 08 contract or 10 - contract of container shipping index (EC2510) for short - selling, sugar, palm oil (observation for short - selling opportunities), cotton (medium - term short - selling), eggs (long - term short - selling) [2] - **Hold and Observe**: Treasury bonds (short - term), gold and silver (long positions held), stainless steel, crude oil, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber (not recommended to chase up), PP, methanol, corn, apples, dates, peanuts, glass, soda ash, lithium carbonate [2] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: The main line of pro - cyclical continues to ferment, A - shares rise with heavy volume, and there is an obvious phenomenon of high - low rotation between sectors [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The decline in funding rates supports short - term bonds. Long - term bonds are significantly suppressed by the recovery of risk appetite in the short term. The overall futures bond trading range moves down. Pay attention to whether incremental policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2] - **Precious Metals**: Under the weakening of the US dollar and multiple news disturbances, the prices of gold and silver remain strong. Gold is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend and hit a previous high, and silver has further upward space above $38 [2] - **Black Metals**: The sentiment in the black metal market improves, pig iron production rebounds, and steel mills' restocking provides support. The expectation of production - restriction documents increases, coal mine复产 lags, and the spot market is strong [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The implementation of anti - involution policies promotes the copper price to be volatile and strong. The expectation of capacity elimination and the intensification of squeeze - out risks drive the alumina price to a new high [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the short - term oil price is mainly weak. The macro - policy boosts the market's strong expectation trading sentiment, and most chemical products show short - term support or upward trends [2] - **Agricultural Products**: The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the capital sentiment supports domestic soybean meal prices. The prices of some agricultural products such as palm oil and sugar face adjustment or short - selling opportunities [2] - **Special Commodities**: Affected by macro - sentiment and supply - side factors, the prices of glass, soda ash, and other special commodities fluctuate greatly, and risk avoidance should be noted [2] 3. Summaries by Related Categories **Equity Index Futures** - The main line of pro - cyclical continues to ferment, A - shares rise with heavy volume. It is recommended to gradually liquidate IM futures long positions, replace them with a small number of MO put option short positions in the 08 contract with a strike price of 6000, and reduce the position, with a mild bullish view [2] **Treasury Bond Futures** - The decline in funding rates supports short - term bonds. Long - term bonds are significantly suppressed by the recovery of risk appetite in the short term. The overall futures bond trading range moves down. In the single - side strategy, short - term observation is recommended. Pay attention to whether incremental policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July. Considering the possible loosening of the funding side, the curve strategy can continue to bet on steepening [2] **Precious Metals Futures** - The weakening of the US dollar and multiple news disturbances keep the prices of gold and silver strong. Gold is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend and hit a previous high. Silver has further upward space above $38, and long positions can be held [2] **Container Shipping Index Futures** - The main contract of the container shipping index (EC2510) falls. It is expected that the near - month contract will be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to short - sell the 08 contract or short - sell the 10 - contract at high prices [2] **Black Metal Futures** - The sentiment in the black metal market improves, pig iron production rebounds, and steel mills' restocking provides support. The expectation of production - restriction documents increases, coal mine复产 lags, the spot market is strong, and the transaction recovers. Mainstream coking plants initiate the second round of price increases, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to rebound [2] **Non - ferrous Metal Futures** - The implementation of anti - involution policies promotes the copper price to be volatile and strong. The expectation of capacity elimination and the intensification of squeeze - out risks drive the alumina price to a new high. The aluminum price rebounds slightly, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The demand expectation for zinc is still weak [2] **Energy and Chemical Futures** - **Crude Oil**: The tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the short - term oil price is mainly weak, with WTI in the range of [63, 64], Brent in the range of [66, 67], and SC in the range of [498, 505] [2] - **Chemicals**: The macro - policy boosts the market's strong expectation trading sentiment. Most chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. show short - term support or upward trends, but there are also differences in supply - demand fundamentals and price trends among different products [2] **Agricultural Product Futures** - The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the capital sentiment supports domestic soybean meal prices. The prices of some agricultural products such as palm oil and sugar face adjustment or short - selling opportunities. The old - crop cotton inventory is relatively tight, and the downstream market is weak, showing short - term strength and medium - term short - selling opportunities [2] **Special Commodity Futures** - Affected by macro - sentiment and supply - side factors, the prices of glass, soda ash, etc. fluctuate greatly. It is necessary to pay attention to risk avoidance [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. The market is optimistic about the macro situation, and funds are trading in advance on the expectation of supply - side clearance, which boosts copper prices. However, the demand side has weakened significantly, showing a stage of weak supply and demand. The domestic macro - policy support and low inventory support the copper price. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, in the short term, the price is expected to be strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but there are risks of squeeze - out due to policy changes in Guinea and warehouse receipt reduction. In the medium term, it is recommended to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, in the short term, the price is under pressure at a high level, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of inventory reduction and demand changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The regenerative aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and marginal changes in imports [5]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [8]. Nickel - Macro - sentiment boosts the market, but the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support for refined nickel is loosening, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. In the short term, the price is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. However, the market sentiment is good recently. It is recommended to avoid short positions for now and short at high prices after the sentiment stabilizes [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a consumption off - season, and the terminal demand is weak. The macro - expectation is strong, and the supply may decrease in the future. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and steel - mill production cuts [15]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures market is supported by macro - sentiment and news. The price is expected to run strongly in a range, and the main contract price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and upstream actions [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,755 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 13.04% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month, and the import volume was 0.3005 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,940 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The alumina prices in different regions have different degrees of increase [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,250 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.615 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.255 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,780 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The zinc ore TC has risen to 3,800 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month, and the import volume was 0.0361 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [8]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,550 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day. The production cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel is 121,953 yuan/ton, up 0.88% month - on - month [11]. - **Supply and Inventory**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month, and the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [11]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price is 266,300 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous day. The 5 - month tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month, and the import volume was 2,076 tons, up 84.04% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) is 12,900 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The 43 - company 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The 300 - series stainless - steel import volume was 0.1095 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month, and the export volume was 0.39 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 68,169 yuan/ton, up 1.62% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in June was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The lithium carbonate demand in June was 93,872 tons, down 0.15% month - on - month, and the total inventory was 99,858 tons, up 2.27% month - on - month [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse situation. In the stock index futures market, the pro - cyclical theme continues to ferment, and the A - share market has increased in volume. In the bond market, it is in a weak and stable state, and the short - term is affected by the rebound of risk preference. The precious metals market is strong due to the weakening of the US dollar. The shipping futures market is expected to be weak. Most non - ferrous metals show different trends of rise and fall, and the black metal market is generally on the rise. The agricultural product market has different performances in different varieties [2][7][10][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On July 22, major A - share indices opened higher and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.62% to 3581.86 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, with IF2509 and IH2509 rising 1.12% and 0.90% respectively, and IC2509 and IM2509 rising 1.15% and 0.66% respectively [2][3] - **News**: Domestically, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to cancel the registration of foreign direct investment in China for reinvestment. Overseas, EU leaders will visit China [3] - **Funding**: On July 22, the A - share trading volume increased to 1.89 trillion yuan, and the north - bound capital trading volume was 2414.97 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 2148 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: As the major indices maintain an upward trend after breaking through the annual high, but approaching the performance reporting period, it is recommended to gradually take profits on the long positions of IM futures and replace them with a small amount of short positions in the MO put options with an exercise price of 6000 in the 08 contract [4] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board on July 22. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [5] - **News**: The A - share market rose, and most domestic commodity futures closed higher [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: The risk - on sentiment suppresses the bond market, but the current fundamentals are still in a weak and stable state, which is bullish for the bond market. In the short term, the bond market may be in a box - shock stage. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the Politburo meeting at the end of July [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: Affected by multiple factors such as US trade negotiations and the possible continuation of Fed Chairman Powell's tenure, the US dollar index continued to fall, and gold and silver prices were strong. International gold closed at $3431.38 per ounce, up 1.02%, and international silver closed at $39.285 per ounce, up 0.94% [9][10] - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend, and the current market lacks a clear driver. Silver has a large change in physical demand, and the price center may move up. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of US trade negotiations [10][11] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Price**: As of July 22, the spot prices of major shipping companies showed different levels [12] - **Index**: As of July 21, the SCFIS European line index fell 0.89% month - on - month, and the US West line index rose 2.78% [12] - **Fundamentals**: As of July 22, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.1% year - on - year. The demand side showed different PMI data in the eurozone and the US [13] - **Logic**: The futures price fell on July 22. As the peak season is coming to an end, the spot price is expected to decline, and the sentiment of the main contract will be suppressed [14] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected that the near - month contract will be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract on rallies [14] Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 79755 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [15] - **Macro**: The domestic anti - involution policy boosts copper demand and may promote the clearance of smelting capacity [16] - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper is expected to increase in July [17] - **Demand**: The demand for copper has certain resilience, and the power and new energy sectors support the demand [18] - **Inventory**: COMEX copper inventory increased, while domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [18] - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment is good, and the fundamentals show a stage of weak supply and demand. The copper price is expected to be volatile and strong [19] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 78500 - 81000 yuan/ton [19] Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: On July 22, the average spot price of alumina in various regions increased by 25 - 50 yuan/ton [19] - **Supply**: In June 2025, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating capacity increased [20] - **Inventory**: The port inventory and registered warehouse receipts of alumina decreased [20] - **Logic**: Affected by the expected capacity elimination and the risk of short - squeeze, the price rose strongly in the short - term. In the medium - term, the market is slightly oversupplied [21] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to be strong above 3100 yuan/ton in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [22] Aluminum - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 20940 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [22] - **Supply**: In June 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum decreased month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to decline in July [22] - **Demand**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the start - up rate increased slightly last week [23] - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory decreased slightly, and the LME inventory increased [23] - **Logic**: The aluminum price rebounded slightly, but the off - season inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term [24] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [24] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [24] - **Supply**: In July, the start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry is expected to decline slightly [25] - **Demand**: The demand is under pressure, and the trading activity has decreased [25] - **Inventory**: The social inventory has increased, and some areas are close to full storage [25] - **Logic**: The price of the aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price to rise slightly, but the terminal demand is weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [26][27] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 19600 - 20400 yuan/ton [27] Zinc - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22780 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day [27] - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase in July [28] - **Demand**: The start - up rates of the three primary processing industries are differentiated, and the overall demand is under pressure in the off - season [29] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [29] - **Logic**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the demand is under pressure in the off - season. The zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [30] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 22000 - 23500 yuan/ton [30] Tin - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of SMM 1 tin was 266300 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton from the previous day [30] - **Supply**: In May, the import of tin ore and tin ingots increased [31] - **Demand and Inventory**: The start - up rate of solder decreased in June, and the LME inventory decreased [32][33] - **Logic**: The supply is expected to be repaired, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to avoid short positions for the time being [33] - **Operation Suggestion**: Avoid short positions for the time being and short on rallies after the sentiment stabilizes [33] Nickel - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123550 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan/ton from the previous day [33] - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is expected to increase slightly in July [34] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, and the demand for stainless steel is weak [34] - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory remains high, and the domestic social inventory has increased [34] - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [35] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton [36] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel was 12950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [37] - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore has loosened, and the price of nickel iron has improved slightly [37] - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel is expected to decrease in July [38] - **Inventory**: The social inventory is decreasing slowly, and the warehouse receipts are decreasing [38] - **Logic**: The macro - expectation is positive, but the terminal demand is weak. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [39] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton [40] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69100 yuan/ton, up 1100 yuan/ton from the previous day [40] - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase in July, and the supply is relatively sufficient [41] - **Demand**: The demand is relatively stable, and the seasonal performance is weakened [41] - **Inventory**: The inventory in all links is increasing [43] - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment supports the price, but the fundamental logic has not changed. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [44] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see, and the main contract is expected to operate between 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [45] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of steel billets and steel products increased [45] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost has increased, but the steel price has also risen, and the profit of steel mills has increased [45] - **Supply**: The molten iron output has increased, and the production of steel mills is expected to increase [45] - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products has remained stable at a high level [46] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products has remained stable at a low level [46] - **Logic**: The anti - involution policy boosts the market sentiment, and the steel price is expected to continue to rise [47] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to avoid short positions and hold long positions [47] Iron Ore - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of mainstream iron ore powder increased [48] - **Futures**: The main 09 contract and the far - month 01 contract of iron ore rose [48] - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties showed different levels [48] - **Demand**: The molten iron output and blast furnace operating rate increased [48] - **Supply**: The global shipment volume decreased slightly, and the arrival volume increased [48] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreased [49] - **Logic**: The demand for iron ore is strong, and the supply is expected to be stable. The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term [49] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold long positions and can participate in short - term long positions on dips [49] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: On July 22, the coking coal futures limit - up, and the spot price increased [50] - **Supply**: The resumption of coal mines is slow, and the supply is still in short supply [51] - **Demand**: The coking and blast furnace operations are stable, and the demand for coking coal is relatively strong [51] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of coking coal has decreased slightly [52] - **Logic**: The supply of coking coal is expected to be tightened, and the price is expected to continue to rise [52] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold long positions and can participate in short - term long positions on dips [52] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: On July 22, the coke futures limit - up, and the second - round price increase of spot coke was implemented [53] - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke is negative [53] - **Supply**: The production of coke is difficult to increase due to the slow resumption of coal mines and corporate losses [53] - **Demand**: The demand for coke has increased due to the increase in molten iron output [54] - **Inventory**: The inventory of coking plants and ports has decreased, and the inventory of steel mills has increased [55] - **Logic**: The price of coke is expected to continue to rise due to the increase in demand and the decrease in inventory [55] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold long positions and can participate in hedging operations [55] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: On July 22, the price of domestic soybean meal was stable or increased slightly, and the trading volume decreased [56] - **Fundamentals**: The excellent rate of US soybeans has decreased, and the export inspection volume has increased [56][57] - **Market Outlook**: The US soybeans are expected to be supported at the bottom, and the domestic soybean meal is recommended to be cautiously bullish [57][58] Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: On July 22, the spot price of live pigs fluctuated slightly [59] - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding has decreased, and the utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens has decreased [60] - **Market Outlook**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuates, and the upward drive of the futures price is limited. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing the rise [60][61] Corn - **Spot Price**: On July 22, the price of corn in Northeast China and North China was stable or increased slightly [62] - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in Guangzhou Port has increased [62] - **Market Outlook**: The market sentiment is stable, and the corn price is expected to rebound and fluctuate [62]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil may face further downward pressure due to production growth and export decline, with potential support at 4100 ringgit and 8800 yuan domestically [1]. - Soybean oil may experience narrow - range oscillations in the short - term, and the basis may be under short - term pressure but supported in the long - term [1]. Sugar - The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but overall, a bearish view is maintained considering the production increase. The domestic sugar market is expected to be marginally more balanced in supply and demand, and a bearish view is held after a potential rebound [3][4]. Cotton - In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may remain high in a narrow range, while they may face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [7]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize, as demand is increasing but supply is sufficient and high - temperature weather may limit price increases [9]. Corn - In the short - term, the corn market may be bullish but with limited upside. In the medium - term, supply is expected to be tight, and prices may be supported [12][13]. Meal - The domestic meal market is recommended for cautious long - positions, as the market is expected to be supported by potential drought in the US and high Brazilian prices [16]. Pigs - Pig prices are expected to be range - bound, with limited upside and downside. Caution is advised when chasing long positions in the far - month contracts [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, soybeans' spot price increased slightly, futures price decreased slightly, and the basis decreased. Palm oil's spot and futures prices increased, and the basis increased significantly. Rapeseed oil's spot and futures prices decreased [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Palm oil is affected by fundamental factors, and domestic port inventories are increasing. For soybean oil, weather impacts are rising as August approaches, and domestic basis differences vary between July and August [1]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: On July 22, domestic sugar futures prices decreased slightly, ICE raw sugar decreased, and most spot prices changed slightly. Imported sugar prices decreased, and the difference between imported and domestic sugar prices decreased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National and Guangxi's sugar production, sales, and sales rates increased year - on - year, while industrial inventories decreased [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June decreased more than expected. The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but a bearish view is maintained overall. The domestic market is expected to be more balanced in supply and demand [3][4]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, cotton futures prices increased slightly, and most spot prices decreased [7]. - **Industry Situation**: North China's inventory, industrial inventory, and imports decreased, while cotton outbound shipments increased. Some downstream indicators such as yarn and fabric inventory days increased [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The downstream demand is still weak, but the cotton price increase has driven up yarn prices. The supply side has some pressure from the sale of old cotton, but the tight inventory situation is difficult to resolve before the new cotton is on the market [7]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, egg futures prices decreased slightly, and the spot price increased slightly. The basis increased significantly [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Egg - laying chick prices decreased slightly, culled chicken prices increased, and the egg - feed ratio and breeding profit decreased [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather has affected production. Demand has increased, and prices are expected to rise slightly and then stabilize [9]. Corn - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, corn futures prices increased slightly, and the basis decreased. Corn starch futures prices increased slightly, and the basis decreased [12]. - **Industry Situation**: The auction on July 22 had a 27% success rate. The supply is tightening due to reduced sales and weather impacts, and demand is supported by the breeding industry [12]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, the market may be bullish but with limited upside. In the medium - term, supply is expected to be tight, and prices may be supported [12][13]. Meal - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot and futures prices increased slightly, and the basis of soybean meal decreased while that of rapeseed meal increased [16]. - **Industry Situation**: US soybeans are at the bottom, and Brazilian prices are high. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is low [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic meal market is recommended for cautious long - positions, as the market is expected to be supported by potential drought in the US and high Brazilian prices [16]. Pigs - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, pig futures prices increased slightly, and the 9 - 11 spread decreased. Spot prices in most regions decreased slightly [19]. - **Industry Situation**: Secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and market demand is weak. Breeding profits are low, and the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to increase [19]. - **Market Analysis**: Pig prices are expected to be range - bound, with limited upside and downside. Caution is advised when chasing long positions in the far - month contracts [19].