2025年6月9日 曹剑兰 | ZOOJaREE | | --- | 原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 持续。当前盘面价格反弹,07合约将进入交割月迎来首次交割,后续交割成本逻辑支 | | --- | | 撑下盘面或有分歧。建议单边观望为主,本月主力将移仓至09合约,可关注月差变 | | 化,反套参与。 | | 数据来源:海关总署、木联数据、Wind、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 | | 兜贡声明 | | 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映 | | 研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表 | | 这的意见并不够成所达品种买卖的出价或狗价，投资者据比投资，风险自控。本报告音在发送给广发明朗特定客户及其他专业人士、版权归 | | 广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为"广发明货"。 | | 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | | 关注微 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views The reports mainly present the latest data on various futures, including price differences, basis, ratios, and related economic indicators, without explicitly stating a core view. 3. Summary by Category a. Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The report provides the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of price differences for various stock index futures such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, including spot-futures price differences and inter - period price differences [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: It presents cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., along with their changes and historical quantiles [1]. b. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and Cross - Period Spreads**: The report shows the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of basis and cross - period spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL treasury bond futures, as well as cross - variety spreads [2]. c. Precious Metals Futures - **Prices and Changes**: It provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals (gold and silver), along with their changes [3]. d. Shipping Industry Futures - **Spot Quotes and Indexes**: The report includes spot quotes for Shanghai - Europe shipping, shipping index settlement prices, and Shanghai export container freight rates, along with their changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: It presents futures prices and basis for shipping futures contracts, as well as fundamental data such as shipping capacity supply, foreign trade - related indicators, and overseas economic data [6]. e. Trading Calendar - **Data and Information**: The report lists overseas and domestic data/information, including macro - data, agricultural products, black and non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and special commodities, along with their release times and data sources [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views Crude Oil - The short - term oil price may strengthen slightly due to macro - economic factors like stable US unemployment, potential Fed rate cuts, and progress in China - US trade talks, but the loose supply restricts the rebound space. Geopolitical conflicts may affect supply expectations. Suggest short - term participation in the rebound, with WTI in the range of [60, 70], Brent in [62, 72], and SC in [450, 500]. Consider long - volatility strategies in the options market [2]. Benzene Ethylene - Crude oil prices are oscillating. The benzene market has increasing supply and demand, but supply growth is greater. High imports are expected to continue. Benzene inventory de - stocking is difficult, dragging down benzene ethylene. Benzene ethylene supply increases while demand decreases, with inventory starting to accumulate. Maintain a short - selling approach, paying attention to raw material resonance and macro risks [8]. PE and PP - PE inventory accumulates at the beginning of the month, with slight de - stocking of social inventory. Supply and demand are in a state of pre - de - stocking, with limited upward and downward drivers. PP has new capacity coming online from June to July, facing seasonal demand slumps and inventory accumulation pressure. Suggest short - selling at high prices [13]. Polyester Industry - PX supply has increased, but there is a de - stocking expectation in June. It is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. PTA's short - term support is strong, and it is advisable to short at high levels. Ethylene glycol's supply and demand structure is good in June, with an expected short - term range oscillation. Short - fiber's absolute price fluctuates with raw materials, and attention should be paid to factory production cuts. Bottle - chip's processing fees are expected to be supported in June [34]. Methanol - The supply side is loose, and the demand side's MTO load increases while downstream profits decline. The price should be range - traded between 2200 - 2350, and inventory may shift from implicit to explicit accumulation [38]. Urea - The current market has high supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation, putting downward pressure on the market. Only export expectations provide limited support. Pay attention to the start of agricultural top - dressing in mid - June and export port collection progress [41]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda's price decline is due to cost reduction. Supply has increased overall, and demand is supported by alumina. Consider holding 7 - 9 calendar spreads. PVC may oscillate in the short term, but in the long run, supply - demand contradictions are prominent. Maintain a short - selling approach [50]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent rose 0.01 to 66.48 dollars/barrel, WTI rose 0.02 to 64.60 dollars/barrel. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI decreased slightly [2]. - **Product Oil**: NYM RBOB decreased 0.08 to 207.60 cents/gallon, NYM ULSD rose 0.33 to 212.86 cents/gallon. Some product oil spreads and cracking spreads changed [2]. Benzene Ethylene - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil (August) rose 1.1 to 66.5 dollars/barrel. Some raw material prices such as CFR China pure benzene decreased slightly [5]. - **Spot and Futures**: Benzene ethylene's spot and futures prices decreased slightly, and its basis and monthly spreads changed [6]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: Some overseas quotes were stable, and the import profit increased [7]. - **Industrial Chain**: The开工率 of some products changed, and the inventory of most products increased [8]. PE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: Some futures prices and spreads of PE and PP changed, and some spot prices were stable or slightly increased [13]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE inventory accumulated at the beginning of the month, and the开工率 of some devices increased [13]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Some downstream polyester product prices and cash flows changed [34]. - **PX - Related**: PX supply increased, and some prices and spreads changed [34]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA's supply - demand situation changed, and some prices and spreads changed [34]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG's supply - demand and inventory situation changed, and some prices and spreads changed [34]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Some methanol futures prices and spreads changed, and some spot prices were stable or slightly increased [38]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise and port inventory increased, and the开工率 of some upstream and downstream devices changed [38]. Urea - **Futures and Spreads**: Some futures prices and spreads changed [41]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea production and inventory data changed [41]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures**: Some spot and futures prices of PVC and caustic soda changed [45]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Some overseas quotes were stable, and export profits changed [46][47]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工率 of some devices and the inventory of some products changed [48][49][50].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Natural Rubber**: Short - term macro warming drives rubber price rebound, but under the expectation of increasing supply and weak demand, the rubber price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds above 14,000. Attention should be paid to the raw material volume in each production area and macro events [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand for industrial silicon is expected to pick up, but the supply increase is larger. The inventory is expected to accumulate, and the price is under pressure. However, the rebound of coal prices provides some support, and the price may fluctuate at a low level [3]. - **Polysilicon**: In June, there is no obvious improvement in fundamentals. There is a risk of inventory accumulation, and the cost support may decline. It is recommended to close long positions and even try shorting on high prices [5]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, in the long - term, there is still pressure to accumulate inventory after maintenance. It is advisable to consider 7 - 9 calendar spreads and short on rebounds in the far - month contracts. For glass, it still faces over - supply pressure after the short - term market sentiment boost. The price may be strong in the short - term but will be under pressure later [6]. 3. Summary by Catalog Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 6, the price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 13,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 1.48% from June 5. The full - milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) was 100 yuan/ton, up 1900% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 890 yuan/ton on June 6, down 10 yuan or 1.14% from June 5 [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand's production was 105,700 dry tons, down 29.16% from the previous period; Indonesia's production was 194,100 dry tons, down 7.26%. The weekly start - up rate of semi - steel tires was 73.86%, down 4.39 percentage points [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory was 614,584 tons on June 6, up 0.06% from the previous day. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 21,873 tons, up 23.99% [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 6, the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon was 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 5. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) was 1,015 yuan/ton, up 16.67% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2506 - 2507 spread was 0 yuan/ton on June 6, up 100% from June 5 [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the national industrial silicon production was 300,800 tons, down 12.10% from the previous month. The production of organic silicon DMC was 184,000 tons, up 6.48% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang inventory was 190,800 tons on June 6, up 0.37% from the previous day. The social inventory was 587,000 tons, down 0.34% [3]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 6, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 5. The N - type material basis (average price) was 1,760 yuan/ton, down 10.20% [5]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The bs2506 contract price was 34,740 yuan/ton on June 6, up 0.58% from June 5. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread was 2,260 yuan/ton, up 43.49% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the polysilicon production was 96,100 tons, up 0.73% from the previous month. The weekly silicon wafer production was 130,400 GM, down 2.69% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory was 269,000 tons on June 6, down 0.37% from the previous day. The silicon wafer inventory was 20,020 GM, up 7.81% [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: On June 6, the North China glass quotation was 1,160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The glass 2509 contract price was 997 yuan/ton, up 3.53% [6]. - **Soda Ash**: On June 6, the North China soda ash quotation was 1,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The soda ash 2509 contract price was 1,212 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [6]. - **Supply**: In late May, the soda ash operation rate was 78.57%, down 0.08% from the previous period. The weekly soda ash production was 685,000 tons, up 1.08% [6]. - **Inventory**: In late May, the glass inventory was 67,762,000 square meters, down 0.01% from the previous period. The soda ash factory inventory was 1.6243 million tons, up 1.37% [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area in real estate was - 18.73%, an increase of 2.99 percentage points from the previous period; the completion area growth rate was - 11.68%, an increase of 15.67 percentage points [6].

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | 友朋友 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月9日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 王滚辉 | Z0019938 | | 票 | | | | | | | | | | | 6月6日 | 6月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8090 | 8030 | ୧୦ | 0.75% | | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7438 | 7404 | 34 | 0.46% | | | 墓差 | Y2509 | 652 | 626 | 26 | 4.15% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+280 | 09+280 | 0 | - | | | 仓单 | | 17822 | 17822 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | | | | elect | 6月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8600 | 8530 | 70 | 0.82% | | | 期价 | P ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a daily tracking of stock index futures positions, showing that on June 6, 2025, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased, with significant reductions in some cases, and the multi - and short - positions of Guojun (Guotai Junan Futures) in these varieties decreased to varying degrees, and there were also notable changes in the positions of other major futures companies [1][6][12][18][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On June 6, the total position of the IF variety decreased by 3,843 hands, and the position of the main contract 2506 decreased by 5,875 hands [6]. - **Changes in the Positions of the Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 long - position seats of the IF variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 37,340 hands. Dayue Futures had the most long - position increase, with an intraday increase of 504 hands, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,007 hands [7]. - **Changes in the Positions of the Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 short - position seats of the IF variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 43,212 hands. CICC Futures had the most short - position increase, with an intraday increase of 841 hands, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 930 hands [9]. IH (SSE 50) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On June 6, the total position of the IH variety decreased by 2,907 hands, and the position of the main contract 2506 decreased by 2,833 hands [12]. - **Changes in the Positions of the Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 long - position seats of the IH variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 8,066 hands. Everbright Futures had the most long - position increase, with an intraday increase of 273 hands, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,399 hands [13]. - **Changes in the Positions of the Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 short - position seats of the IH variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 9,729 hands. Hongyuan Futures had the most short - position increase, with an intraday increase of 447 hands, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,407 hands [14]. IC (CSI 500) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On June 6, the total position of the IC variety decreased by 3,814 hands, and the position of the main contract 2506 decreased by 5,497 hands [18]. - **Changes in the Positions of the Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 long - position seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 32,391 hands. CICC Futures had the most long - position increase, with an intraday increase of 1,214 hands, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,475 hands [19]. - **Changes in the Positions of the Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 short - position seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 33,754 hands. Guoxin Futures had the most short - position increase, with an intraday increase of 449 hands, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,615 hands [20]. IM (CSI 1000) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On June 6, the total position of the IM variety decreased by 14,889 hands, and the position of the main contract 2506 decreased by 12,418 hands [24]. - **Changes in the Positions of the Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 long - position seats of the IM variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 45,334 hands. Yong'an Futures had the most long - position increase, with an intraday increase of 237 hands, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 3,291 hands [25]. - **Changes in the Positions of the Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 short - position seats of the IM variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 55,394 hands. Yong'an Futures had the most short - position increase, with an intraday increase of 204 hands, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 2,981 hands [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views The reports present a comprehensive overview of various financial and commodity markets, including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping. They detail the latest prices, price changes, and historical percentiles of different contracts and assets, as well as provide relevant economic indicators and data on supply - demand fundamentals. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spread Report - **IF, IH, IC, IM Futures**: The latest values of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures' spot - futures spreads are - 25.56, - 18.13, - 46.37, and - 65.41 respectively, with corresponding changes of 0.79, - 0.90, 3.84, and 3.76 compared to the previous day. Their historical 1 - year percentiles are 23.70%, 16.30%, 21.70%, and 80.00% respectively [1]. - **Cross - term Spreads**: For cross - term spreads, values and changes vary across different contract months and varieties. For example, the "next month - current month" spread of F futures is - 38.80 with a change of 0.40, and its historical 1 - year percentile is 3.60% [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios such as "CSI 500/CSI 300", "CSI 500/SSE 50", and "CSI 300/SSE 50" are presented, with their latest values being 1.4880, 2.1433, and 1.4403 respectively, and changes of 0.0046, 0.0105, and 0.0026 [1]. Bond Futures Spread Report - **Bond Basis**: The basis values of TS, TF, T, and TL bonds on June 5, 2025, are - 0.0808, - 0.0400, - 0.0300, and 0.6059 respectively, with changes of - 0.0022, - 0.0165, 0.0280, and 0.0708 compared to the previous day. Their historical percentiles since listing are 39.10%, 48.10%, 56.00%, and 25.40% respectively [3]. - **Cross - term Spreads**: Cross - term spreads of different bond futures also show different values and changes. For example, the "current quarter - next quarter" spread of TS futures is - 0.1440 with a change of 0.0040, and its historical percentile is 6.30% [3]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads like "TS - TF", "TS - T", and "TF - T" are reported, with values of - 3.6000, - 6.2900, and - 2.6900 respectively on June 5, 2025, and changes of 0.0390, 0.0790, and 0.0400 [3]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On June 4, the closing prices of AU2508 and AG2508 contracts are 783.72 yuan/gram and 8473 yuan/kg respectively, with increases of 1.30 and 10 compared to the previous day, and increases of 0.17% and 0.12% respectively. COMEX gold and silver futures show different price trends, with COMEX gold down by 0.63% and COMEX silver up by 3.29% on June 5 compared to the previous day [7]. - **Basis and Ratios**: The basis values of "gold TD - SHFE gold main contract" and "silver TD - SHFE silver main contract" are - 2.73 and - 17 respectively, with historical 1 - year percentiles of 27.70% and 63.80%. Ratios such as "COMEX gold/aluminum" and "SHFE gold/silver" also have corresponding values and changes [7]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: Inventory and holdings data of precious metals show various trends. For example, the inventory of SHFE gold increased by 3.48% to 17847 kg, while the inventory of COMEX gold decreased by 0.14% to 38299834 [7]. Container Shipping Report - **Shipping Indexes**: The settlement price indexes of SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US West route) are 1252.82 and 1718.11 respectively, with changes of 0.46% and - 0.10%. The SCFI composite index increased by 30.68% to 2072.71 [11]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of EC contracts show declines, with the main contract EC2508 down by 2.40% to 2146.3. The basis of the main contract is - 718.3 with a change of - 0.69% [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: Fundamental data on shipping include stable global container shipping capacity supply, a decline in Shanghai port's on - time rate and the number of port calls, and changes in overseas economic indicators such as the eurozone manufacturing PMI index and the EU consumer confidence index [11]. Data and Information Report - **Overseas Data**: Overseas data includes macro - economic indicators such as the eurozone's Q1 GDP annual rate, the US non - farm payrolls, and agricultural product reports like the FAO report and the CFTC持仓 report [14]. - **Domestic Data**: Domestic data covers economic indicators of black and non - ferrous metals (e.g., silicon iron production and inventory), energy and chemical products (e.g., PX and polyester product data), and special commodities (e.g., glass production - sales ratio) [14].

V期现日报 投资次输业务资格·证监许可 【2011】1292 2025年6月6日 林嘉施 Z0020770 | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 304/2B (无锡宏旺2.0卷) | 13050 | 13100 | -50 | -0.38% | 元/吨 | | 304/2B (佛山宏旺2.0卷) | 13050 | 13050 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 期现价差 | 530 | 550 | -20 | -3.64% | 元/吨 | | 原料价格 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 菲律宾红土镍矿1.5%(CIF)均价 | ਦਰੇ | ਦੌਰੇ | O | 0.00% | 美元/湿吨 | | 南非40-42%铬精矿均价 | 60 | ୧୦ | - J | -0.83% | 元/吨度 | | 8-12%高镍生铁出厂均价 | 957 | વેરૂદ | 1 | 0.05% | 元/镍点 | | 内 ...

Group 1: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core Viewpoints Spot prices are stable, polysilicon futures fluctuate and decline. In June, supply and demand are expected to remain weak. If there is no further production cut in polysilicon, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended that long - position holders close their positions in advance [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type reclaimed feedstock, P - type cauliflower feedstock, N - type granular silicon, etc., remained unchanged on June 5 compared to June 4. The basis of N - type feedstock and cauliflower feedstock increased by 35.64% and 7.42% respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: PS2506 dropped by 1.47% to 34540 yuan/ton. The spread between PS2506 - PS2507 decreased by 46.34% [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production decreased by 2.69% to 13.04 GM, while polysilicon production increased by 1.85% to 2.20 million tons [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, polysilicon production increased by 0.73% to 9.61 million tons. In April, polysilicon imports decreased by 7.10%, exports decreased by 10.40%, and net exports remained unchanged. Silicon wafer production in May decreased by 0.50% to 58.06 GM. In April, silicon wafer imports decreased by 32.03%, exports increased by 28.29%, and net exports increased by 42.57% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.37% to 26.90 million tons, while silicon wafer inventory increased by 7.81% to 20.02 GM. Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 5.73% to 2030 [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core Viewpoints Industrial silicon futures opened low, fluctuated, and slightly declined. The fundamentals continue to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. Although demand is expected to recover, it is difficult to digest the relatively high increase in supply. Supply is expected to grow significantly, and prices will remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to coal price changes [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract**: The prices of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged, while the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 0.56%. The basis of various types of industrial silicon decreased [3]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread between 2506 - 2507 increased by 86.54%, while the spread between 2507 - 2508 decreased by 150.00% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, with significant decreases in Xinjiang and increases in Yunnan and Sichuan. The organic silicon DMC production increased by 6.48%, and the polysilicon production increased by 0.73%. The national industrial silicon start - up rate decreased by 11.37% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.37%, Yunnan's increased by 1.62%, and Sichuan's increased by 0.88%. Social inventory decreased by 0.34%, order inventory decreased by 0.80%, and non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.17% [3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: Affected by macro news, the futures rebounded at night, but the fundamentals remained unchanged. The market sentiment was weak, and there was still pressure to accumulate inventory in the long - term. It is recommended to consider the 7 - 9 positive spread and short - term high - selling operations for the far - month contracts [4]. - **Glass**: Affected by macro news, the futures rebounded at night. The spot market was weak, and there was pressure to accumulate inventory after June. It is expected that the price will continue to be under pressure and operate weakly in the short - term [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, and Central China remained unchanged, while the price in South China decreased by 0.76%. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 decreased by 2.09% and 2.53% respectively [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased by 1.36% and 1.76% respectively [4]. - **Supply Volume**: Soda ash start - up rate decreased by 0.08%, weekly production increased by 1.08%, float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.01%, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.37%, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 4.79% [4]. - **Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year)**: New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [4]. Group 4: Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core Viewpoints In the short - term, the macro - economic recovery drives the rubber price to rebound. However, with the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, the rubber price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds above 14000. Attention should be paid to the raw material supply in each production area and macro - event disturbances [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber increased by 1.12%, and the basis increased by 101.96%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.74% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.39%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 40.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 6.40% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India decreased, while China's production increased. The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased, and domestic tire production and exports decreased [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.06%, and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 59.49% [5].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The index has stable support below and pressure to break through above. It is affected by news in the short - term and will continue neutral oscillation after the fluctuations subside. TMT has become popular again, and all major A - share indices have closed higher [2]. - 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond interest rates are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges. The short - end varieties of treasury bonds are relatively strong [2]. - Gold has resistance at the previous high of $3430, and silver has broken through the resistance of last year's high and is expected to continue rising in the short - term [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a volatile consolidation phase [2]. - Industrial materials in the steel sector have poor demand and inventory, and iron ore and coke are in different market conditions [2]. - Gold and silver are differentiated. Gold has resistance at the previous high, and silver is expected to continue rising in the short - term [2]. Group 3: Summary by Category Stock Index - Index short - term is affected by news, and after the fluctuations subside, it continues neutral oscillation. TMT is popular again, and all major A - share indices close higher. It is recommended to mainly wait and see and sell put options on the CSI 1000 index with an execution price around 5700 in July to collect the premium [2]. Treasury Bond - 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.75%, and 30 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.8% - 1.95%. It is recommended to conduct interval band operations for the unilateral strategy and wait and see for now. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract for the spot - futures strategy, and pay attention to the opportunity of band steepening for the curve strategy [2]. Precious Metals - Gold has resistance at the previous high of $3430, and a strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold options on both sides can be adopted after the volatility increases. Silver has broken through the resistance of last year's high of $34.8 and is expected to continue rising in the short - term [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The market is in a volatile consolidation phase. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously, and the 08 contract is expected to oscillate between 2050 - 2250 points [2]. Steel - Industrial materials demand and inventory are poor. Pay attention to the decline range of apparent demand. Unilateral operations are mainly on hold, and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of buying finished products and shorting raw materials [2]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is in an interval oscillation, with a reference range of 700 - 745. Pay attention to the marginal change of terminal demand [2]. Coke - Mainstream steel mills started the third round of price cuts on June 4. Coke is weak and making concessions, and the futures have advanced rebound expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Coking Coal - The market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, and coal mine production has declined from a high level. The spot price may still fall, but the expectation has improved. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Copper - The CL spread has widened again, and the US copper restocking continues. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [2]. Zinc - Domestic and overseas inventories are increasing simultaneously, and the zinc price is oscillating weakly. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23500 [2]. Nickel - The market is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2]. Stainless Steel - The market maintains oscillation, with cost support and supply - demand contradictions still existing. The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13200 [2]. Tin - The supply recovery progress is slow, and the macro - sentiment has improved. The tin price continues to rebound. After the sentiment stabilizes, a short - selling strategy from high levels is recommended [2]. Crude Oil - The conversation between Chinese and US leaders has eased market concerns. The market is likely to oscillate in the short - term. A band strategy is recommended in the long - term, and it is recommended to wait and see during the oscillation period. The upper pressure for WTI is [64, 66], for Brent is [67, 69], and for SC is [475, 485] [2]. Urea - The upstream inventory continues to increase in the short - term, and the export scale is difficult to increase for the time being, with limited support for the market. A band strategy is recommended in the long - term, and it is still bottom - grinding in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and wait for rebound opportunities. The main contract is expected to fluctuate around [1740, 1850] [2]. PX - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, and the price is under pressure, but there is still support due to the tight spot situation. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels in the 6500 - 6900 range, pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity for PX9 - 1, and shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2]. PTA - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, but the raw material support is strong. The PTA price has support at low levels. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels in the 4600 - 4900 range and conduct reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 when it is high [2]. Short - fiber - Some factories have reduced contracts, and the short - term processing fee has slightly recovered, but the driving force is still limited. The unilateral operation of PF is the same as that of PTA, and it is recommended to expand the processing fee at the low level of the PF disk [2]. Bottle - chip - During the peak demand season, there is a production - reduction expectation for bottle - chips, and the processing fee is supported. PR follows the cost fluctuation. The processing fee of the PR main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand it at the lower edge of the range [2]. Ethanol - The port inventory continues to decline. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity. It is recommended to buy at around 4200 for EG09 and conduct positive arbitrage for EG9 - 1 at low levels [2]. Styrene - In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the opportunity of raw material resonance decline. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels and pay attention to the raw material resonance opportunity [2]. Caustic Soda - The alumina procurement supports the spot price. Attention should be paid to the inventory and cost. The 7 - 9 positive arbitrage position should be held [2]. PVC - The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to effectively relieve. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Indian BIS policy in June. A high - level short - selling strategy is recommended [2]. Synthetic Rubber - BR follows the commodity price fluctuation. The short position of BR2507 should be reduced [2]. LLDPE - The spot price has risen with the market, and the trading volume is moderate [2]. PP - The supply and demand are both weak, and it is in a weak oscillation. A short - selling strategy from high levels gradually is recommended [2]. Methanol - The inventory inflection point has appeared, and it is in an oscillation phase [2]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - CBOT has stabilized, and the two are oscillating. M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3000 [2]. Live Pig - The demand is weak after the festival, and the spot price is under pressure again. Attention should be paid to the performance around 13500 [2]. Corn - The spot price is relatively stable, and the corn price is in a narrow - range oscillation. It is expected to oscillate around 2330 in the short - term [2]. Palm Oil - The production has increased, and the market is in an oscillating consolidation phase. Palm oil is expected to test the support at 8000 in the short - term [2]. Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2]. Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [2]. Egg - The spot price may weaken again. A short - selling strategy on rebounds for the 07 contract is recommended, and short positions should be held [2]. Apple - The bagging is in progress, and the trading is priced according to quality. The main contract is expected to run around 7700 [2]. Jujube - The market price is weakly stable and is in a bottom - building phase [2]. Peanut - The market price is oscillating. The main contract is expected to run around 8400 [2]. Soda Ash - The oversupply logic continues. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended, and short positions should be held. A 7 - 9 positive arbitrage strategy between months is recommended [2]. Glass - The market sentiment has reversed, and the market has rebounded. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [2]. Rubber - The market sentiment has improved, and the rubber price continues to rebound. A short - selling strategy on rebounds above 14000 is recommended [2]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures opened lower, oscillated, and declined slightly [2]. Polysilicon - The spot price has stabilized, and the polysilicon futures have declined in an oscillating manner. If there are long positions, it is recommended to close them first [2]. Lithium Carbonate - The sentiment is temporarily stable, and the market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The fundamental logic has not reversed. The main contract is expected to run between 56,000 - 62,000 [2].