投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年6月6日 数据来源:Wind、Mysteel、广发期货研究所。清仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。历史分位数:根据各品种近五年的基差水平排序 免责声明 体报中的谎息的软乐评谈下载我摸情报片员儿为可能的是公开资料，回广场增的过些信息的非的生活带他不用手用压。本报后反映得到《思想不得意…《探疑分析方法，并不错成"就能够感影像和《鸿过士》。在日何从下，报告内容仅你参考，新年夜间 度西斯表达的舰队的不停的威尼斯坦奥尔里尔里尔斯，他没希腊优投资，风险军组。本报告演在发出维厂发射影院在客户又更也专业人士，成风见广发的影所有，未经厂发剧领先两领队，任何人不停的本版运行任何形成的发布，衰退，如何乐、和文、船耳用出处力 "广发期货"。 | 硅铁 (SF509) | | 7.35% 93.60% 5196 382 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 5578 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅罐(SM509) | | 5482 188 3.43% 55.80% 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 5670 | | ୧୧ | | 70 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - The 07 contract will enter the delivery month for the first delivery, and there may be differences in the futures market supported by the delivery cost logic. Overall, the demand for logs has entered the traditional off - season, and the outbound volume is expected to decline further. Meanwhile, due to the low ex - works prices in May, traders had a high willingness to take delivery, and it is expected that there will still be pressure on arrivals in June. The spot market is stable with a weakening trend, and the fundamental situation remains in a weak balance. Currently, the futures price is close to the phased bottom. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for single - side trading. The main contract will shift to the 09 contract this month, and investors can pay attention to the changes in the inter - month spread and participate in reverse spreads [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased on June 6 compared to June 4, with declines of 1.58%, 1.29%, and 1.08% respectively. The spreads between different contracts and the basis of each contract also changed. Spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged. The import theoretical cost decreased slightly, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar also decreased slightly [2] Supply - In terms of monthly supply, the port shipping volume in April increased by 39.0 million cubic meters compared to March, a growth rate of 24.17%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8.0, a growth rate of 13.79% [2] Inventory - The total inventory of major log ports in China decreased by 2.0 million cubic meters from May 23 to May 30, a decline of 0.58%. Inventory in Shandong decreased by 2.5 million cubic meters, a decline of 1.30%, while inventory in Jiangsu increased by 3.6 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 3.23% [2][3] Demand - The daily average outbound volume of logs in China increased slightly by 0.07 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 1%. In Shandong, it increased by 0.11 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 3%, while in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.07 million cubic meters, a decline of 3% [3]

Report on Polysilicon 1. Core View - Spot prices are stable, polysilicon futures are oscillating and falling. In June, supply and demand are expected to be weak. If there is no further production cut in polysilicon, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended that long - position holders close their positions in advance [1]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: N - type re - feeding material, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon average prices remained unchanged on June 5th compared to June 4th. The basis of N - type material and cauliflower material increased by 35.64% and 7.42% respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: PS2506 decreased by 1.47% to 34540 yuan/ton. The spread between PS2506 and PS2507 decreased by 46.34% [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production decreased by 2.69% to 13.04 GM, while polysilicon production increased by 1.85% to 2.20 million tons [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, polysilicon production was 9.61 million tons, up 0.73%. In April, polysilicon imports decreased by 7.10%, exports decreased by 10.40%, and net exports remained stable [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.37% to 26.90 million tons, while silicon wafer inventory increased by 7.81% to 20.02 GM. Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 5.73% to 2030 [1]. Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Core View - Industrial silicon futures opened lower, oscillated, and slightly declined. The fundamentals continue to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. Although demand may recover, it is difficult to digest the relatively high supply increase. Supply is expected to grow, and prices will remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to coal price changes [3]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, while the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 0.56%. The basis of various varieties decreased [3]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread between 2506 and 2507 increased by 86.54%, while the spread between 2507 and 2508 decreased by 150.00% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37%. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 6.48%, and the production of polysilicon increased by 0.73% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factory - warehouse inventories increased slightly, while social inventory decreased by 0.34%. Warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.80%, and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.17% [3]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Core View - **Soda Ash**: Affected by macro news, the soda ash futures rebounded at night. In the long - term, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation after maintenance. In June, the implementation of maintenance can be tracked. Consider a 7 - 9 positive spread and short - term short - selling on the far - month contract [4]. - **Glass**: Affected by macro news, the glass futures rebounded at night. The spot market is weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation after June. The industry needs capacity clearance, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [4]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, and Central China glass quotes remained unchanged, while South China quotes decreased by 0.76%. Glass 2505 and 2509 decreased by 2.09% and 2.53% respectively [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash quotes remained unchanged. Soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased by 1.36% and 1.76% respectively [4]. - **Supply**: Soda ash start - up rate decreased slightly, weekly production increased by 1.08%, float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.37%, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 4.79% [4]. - **Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year)**: New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [4]. Report on Rubber Industry 1. Core View - In the short term, the macro - economic recovery drives rubber prices to rebound. However, under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, rubber prices are expected to remain weak. Consider short - selling when the price exceeds 14000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to raw material supply in various producing areas and macro - event disturbances [5]. 2. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased by 1.12%. The basis of whole latex increased by 101.96%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.74% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.39%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 40.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 6.40% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand, Indonesia, and India's rubber production decreased. The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased. Domestic tire production, tire exports, natural rubber imports, and imports of natural and synthetic rubber decreased [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.06%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 59.49% [5].

V期现日报 投资次输业务资格·证监许可 【2011】1292 2025年6月6日 林嘉施 Z0020770 | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 304/2B (无锡宏旺2.0卷) | 13050 | 13100 | -50 | -0.38% | 元/吨 | | 304/2B (佛山宏旺2.0卷) | 13050 | 13050 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 期现价差 | 530 | 550 | -20 | -3.64% | 元/吨 | | 原料价格 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 菲律宾红土镍矿1.5%(CIF)均价 | ਦਰੇ | ਦੌਰੇ | O | 0.00% | 美元/湿吨 | | 南非40-42%铬精矿均价 | 60 | ୧୦ | - J | -0.83% | 元/吨度 | | 8-12%高镍生铁出厂均价 | 957 | વેરૂદ | 1 | 0.05% | 元/镍点 | | 内 ...

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of various stock index futures spreads and cross-variety ratios on June 6, 2025, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, to help investors understand the market situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures-Spot Spreads**: The latest IF futures-spot spread is -25.56, with a change of 0.79 from the previous day, and historical 1-year and full - historical quantiles of 23.70% and 16.60% respectively. Similar data is provided for IH, IC, and IM [1] - **Inter-period Spreads**: Multiple inter-period spreads such as next month - current month, quarterly month - current month, and far month - current month are presented for different futures varieties, along with their changes and quantiles [1] - **Cross-variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, and others are given, with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1] Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and listed - since quantiles of various treasury bond futures spreads and basis on June 5, 2025, including TS, TF, T, and TL, to assist investors in analyzing the market [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Basis**: The latest TS basis is -0.0808, with an IRR of 1.8342, a change of -0.0022 from the previous day, and a listed - since quantile of 39.10%. Similar data is provided for TF, T, and TL [3] - **Inter-period Spreads**: Inter-period spreads like current quarter - next quarter for different treasury bond futures varieties are shown, along with their changes and quantiles [3] - **Cross-variety Spreads**: Cross-variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are presented with their latest values, changes, and listed - since quantiles [3] Group 3: Precious Metals Futures-Spot Daily Report Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report offers the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions on June 4, 2025, to help investors assess the precious metals market [7] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing price of the AU2508 contract is 783.72 yuan/gram, with a change of 1.30 and a growth rate of 0.17%. Similar data is provided for the AG2508 contract and foreign - market futures [7] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of London gold, London silver, Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D, and silver T + D are given, along with their changes and growth rates [7] - **Basis**: Basis values such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract are presented, along with their changes and historical 1 - year quantiles [7] - **Ratios**: Ratios like COMEX gold/silver and SHFE gold/silver are provided, with their changes and growth rates [7] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Data on 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, 2 - year US Treasury bond yield, 10 - year TIPS Treasury bond yield, US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate are given, along with their changes and growth rates [7] - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventory data of SHFE gold, SHFE silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver, as well as holding data of SPDR gold ETF and SLV silver ETF are presented, along with their changes and growth rates [7] Group 4: Container Shipping Index Futures and Spot Daily Report Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides the latest prices, changes, and growth rates of container shipping index futures, spot prices, and related fundamental data, helping investors understand the container shipping market [11] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes of shipping companies such as MAERSK, CMA, and MSC are given, along with their changes and growth rates [12] - **Container Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes like SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US - West route), as well as Shanghai Export Container Freight Indexes such as SCFI composite index, are presented, along with their changes and growth rates [11] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of EC2602, EC2604, etc., and the basis of the main contract are provided, along with their changes and growth rates [11] - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container shipping capacity supply, port on - time rates, port calls, monthly export amounts, overseas economic indicators such as euro - zone manufacturing PMI, and OECD comprehensive leading indicators are given, along with their changes and growth rates [11] Group 5: Overseas and Domestic Data/Information Report Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report lists upcoming overseas and domestic economic indicators and financial events, providing information for investors to follow the market [14] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Overseas Data/Information**: Includes macro - data such as euro - zone GDP, employment, retail sales, and US employment data, as well as agricultural product reports and CFTC position reports [14] - **Domestic Data/Information**: Covers data on black and non - ferrous metals (e.g., silicon iron production, inventory), energy and chemical products (e.g., PX and polyester product data), and special commodities (e.g., glass production - sales ratio) [14]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: MPOA data shows lower-than-expected production growth, supporting the market. Short-term, crude palm oil futures are expected to oscillate between 3900 - 3950 ringgit, and Dalian palm oil futures between 8000 - 8100, maintaining a near-strong and far-weak trend [1]. - Soybean oil: Before the USDA report, CBOT soybean oil adjusts with a narrow range. If there is no positive impact, it may decline due to future supply and biodiesel policy concerns. Domestically, the soybean oil fundamentals are deteriorating [1]. Meal Products - Two meals are expected to maintain an oscillating structure. The US soybean does not have a unilateral upward trend, and the soybean meal主力 is expected to fluctuate between 2900 - 3000 [2]. Corn - In the short term, the corn market maintains a narrow - range oscillation. In the long - term, supply tightness and increased demand support the price, but short - term wheat listing limits the upward space [3]. Live Pigs - The live pig spot price is oscillating weakly. Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and the market is under pressure, but there is no basis for a sharp decline [6]. Sugar - Global sugar supply is becoming looser, pressuring raw sugar. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening pattern, but the current limited entry of raw sugar into the domestic market still supports the price [9][10]. Cotton - Affected by Sino - US communication, the macro sentiment has improved, and the overnight cotton price has rebounded. The downstream industry is weak, but the strong basis and concerns about inventory still support the cotton price [11]. Eggs - In June, the egg supply pressure increases, and the demand is weak during the off - season. The egg price is expected to have no strength to rebound or continue to decline [13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Prices**: Soybean oil spot price in Jiangsu dropped from 8030 to 8050, a decrease of 0.25%; palm oil spot price in Guangdong dropped from 8530 to 8600, a decrease of 0.81%; rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 9320 [1]. - **Spreads**: Most spreads showed fluctuations, such as the soybean - palm oil spot spread increasing by 9.09% [1]. Meal Products - **Prices**: Jiangsu soybean meal spot price remained at 2900; Jiangsu rapeseed meal spot price rose from 2450 to 2460, an increase of 0.41% [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed meal 09 - 01 spread increased by 9.48% [2]. Corn - **Prices**: Corn 2507 Jinzhou Port FOB price rose by 0.09%; corn starch 2507 dropped by 0.11% [3]. - **Spreads**: Corn 7 - 9 spread dropped by 17.39%; starch - corn spread dropped by 1.51% [3]. Live Pigs - **Prices**: The live pig 2507 contract dropped by 0.23%; the spot price in Henan dropped from 14230 to 14130 [6]. - **Indicators**: The self - breeding profit per week dropped by 26.05%, and the purchased - piglet breeding profit dropped by 425.34% [6]. Sugar - **Prices**: Sugar 2601 dropped by 0.44%; ICE raw sugar主力 dropped by 0.78% [9]. - **Industry Indicators**: National sugar production increased by 11.63%, and the national sales volume increased by 26.07% [9]. Cotton - **Prices**: Cotton 2509 dropped by 0.15%; Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B remained unchanged at 14431 [11]. - **Industry Indicators**: Commercial inventory decreased by 7.7%, and the textile yarn, fabric and product export volume increased by 4.4% [11]. Eggs - **Prices**: Egg 09 contract dropped by 0.40%; egg - laying chick price dropped by 1.20% [13]. - **Spreads**: The 9 - 7 spread of eggs dropped by 1.88% [13].

型期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月6日 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品种 | 6月5日 | 6月4日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2501 收盘价 | 2319 | 2330 | -11 | -0.47% | | | 主力 MA2505 收盘价 | 2263 | 2330 | -67 | -2.88% | | | MA2509 收盘价 | 2259 | 2270 | -11 | -0.48% | | | MA2505-2509价差 | 4 | 60 | -56 | -93.33% | | | MA2501-2505价差 | 56 | 0 | 56 | #DIV/0i | | | 太仓基差: 现货-MA2509 | 49 | 28 | 21 | 76.36% | TT./048 | | 内蒙北线现货 | 1893 | 1875 | 18 | 0.93% | | | 河南浩阳现货 | 2065 | 2068 | -3 | -0.12% | | | 港口太仓现货 | ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Viewpoint - The report provides a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures. It shows the changes in the total positions and the positions of the top 20 seats for different stock index futures varieties including IF, IH, IC, and IM on June 5, 2025 [1][5][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory IF (CSI 300 Index Futures) - Total position: The total position of the IF variety increased by 1,966 lots on June 5, with the position of the main contract IF2506 rising by 448 lots [5] - Top 20 long - position seats: Among the top 20 long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 38,347 lots. Guoxin Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 1,441 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 266 lots [6] - Top 20 short - position seats: Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 43,357 lots. Guoxin Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,310 lots, while Huatai Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 816 lots [8] IH (SSE 50 Index Futures) - Total position: The total position of the IH variety increased by 2,545 lots on June 5, with the position of the main contract IH2506 rising by 557 lots [11] - Top 20 long - position seats: Among the top 20 long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 9,465 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 768 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 131 lots [12] - Top 20 short - position seats: Among the top 20 short - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 11,136 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 989 lots, while Guotou Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 317 lots [13] IC (CSI 500 Index Futures) - Total position: The total position of the IC variety increased by 5,357 lots on June 5, with the position of the main contract IC2506 rising by 1,923 lots [17] - Top 20 long - position seats: Among the top 20 long - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 33,189 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 1,719 lots, while Zhongtai Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 256 lots [18] - Top 20 short - position seats: Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 34,330 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,622 lots, while CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 176 lots [19] IM (CSI 1000 Index Futures) - Total position: The total position of the IM variety increased significantly by 14,003 lots on June 5, with the position of the main contract IM2506 rising by 5,262 lots [24] - Top 20 long - position seats: Among the top 20 long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 45,334 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 2,095 lots, while CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 246 lots [25] - Top 20 short - position seats: Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 58,367 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 2,314 lots, while GF Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 638 lots [27]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及 分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所率达的意见歼不勾成所法品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者提比 投资，风险自担，本报告旨在发送给广发明始特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归厂发期货所有，未经广发期货市面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式较发布、复制 。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为"广发期货"。 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月5日 | | | | | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3110 | 3090 | 20 | 140 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3170 | 3150 | 20 | 200 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The index has stable support below and high pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is still ongoing, and the index fluctuates in the short - term due to news, but the export chain is heating up and the stock index continues to rebound. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond rates are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges, and the treasury bond market may show a narrow - range oscillation. Gold forms a "double - top" pattern with resistance at the previous high of $3430, and silver may冲击 the high - level resistance of $34.8. The CMA of the container shipping index (European line) continues to raise prices in July, and the steel industry's demand and inventory are deteriorating. The iron ore is in a range - bound state, and the prices of coke and coking coal may continue to decline. The supply of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon has different situations, and the prices of copper and tin are affected by different factors. The oil price is dragged down by supply concerns, and the prices of various chemical and agricultural products are also affected by different supply - demand and market factors [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The index has stable support below and high pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is ongoing, and the index is affected by news in the short - term. The export chain is heating up, and the stock index continues to rebound. After the volatility subsides, it will continue to oscillate neutrally. It is recommended to wait and see, and try to go long on the CSI 1000 index in the range of 5800 - 5900 [2]. Treasury Bond - The 10 - year treasury bond rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.75%, and the 30 - year treasury bond rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.8% - 1.95%. In the short - term, the market lacks driving forces, and the treasury bond market may show a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to conduct interval - band operations, and currently, the odds are limited, so it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Precious Metals - Gold forms a "double - top" pattern with resistance at the previous high of $3430. It may have a pulse - type rise affected by news in the short - term. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold options on both sides can be adopted to earn time value. Silver may冲击 the high - level resistance of $34.8 after breaking through the previous high resistance of $33.5, and beware of long - position profit - taking at high levels [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The CMA continues to raise prices in July, and the market oscillates upwards. It is considered to go long on the 08 contract at low prices [2]. Steel - The demand and inventory of industrial materials are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on the arbitrage operation of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. Iron Ore - It is in a range - bound state, with a reference range of 700 - 745. Pay attention to the marginal change in terminal demand [2]. Coke - The third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills started on June 4th. The coking coal is weakly conceding profits, and the coke price may continue to decline. It is recommended to short after the price rebounds [2]. Coking Coal - The market auction continues to be cold, the coal mine production is at a high level, and the inventory is at a high level. The spot price may still decline, but the expectation has improved. It is recommended to short after the price rebounds [2]. Silicon - Iron - The large - scale factories in Ningxia have resumed production, and the cost side has rebounded and repaired. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Manganese - Silicon - The shipment from Groote Eylandt has resumed, but the supply of manganese - silicon still has weak driving forces. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Copper - The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [2]. Tin - The resumption of production in Myanmar is slow, and the short - term shortage of tin ore boosts the tin price. It can be considered to try to go long [2]. Crude Oil - Saudi Arabia's willingness to increase production remains strong, and the increase in EIA refined oil inventory has aggravated the long - term supply concerns, dragging down the oil price. In the long - term, a band - trading strategy is still recommended. In the short - term, it is necessary to observe whether the macro - environment eases before making long or short positions. The fluctuation range of WTI is given as [59, 69], Brent as [61, 71], and SC as [440, 500]. Options can buy a straddle structure to capture the opportunity of increased volatility after the holiday [2]. Urea - In the short - term, the upstream continues to tighten inventory, and the export scale is difficult to increase for the time being, providing limited support to the market. In the long - term, a band - trading strategy is adopted. In the short - term, the market oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and wait for the rebound opportunity. The main contract should pay attention to the support around [1730, 1750] [2]. PX - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, and the price is under pressure, but the tight spot market still provides support. In the short - term, pay attention to the support around 6500; focus on the reverse - arbitrage opportunity for PX9 - 1; shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2]. PTA - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, but the raw material support is strong. In the short - term, it still has support. In the short - term, pay attention to the support around 4600; mainly conduct reverse - arbitrage for TA9 - 1 [2]. Short - Fiber - Some factories have reduced contracts, and the short - term processing fee has been repaired. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA; mainly expand the processing fee on the PF futures market when it is low [2]. Bottle - Chip - During the peak demand season, there is an expectation of production reduction for bottle - chips, and the processing fee is supported. PR follows the cost fluctuation. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA; the main contract's processing fee on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand it at the lower limit of the range [2]. Ethanol - The port inventory continues to decline. Pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunity. EG09 pays attention to the opportunity to go long at around 4200; conduct positive - arbitrage for EG9 - 1 at low prices [2]. Styrene - With the expectation of gradually weakening supply - demand, the price is under pressure. Adopt a high - short strategy [2]. Caustic Soda - The alumina procurement supports the spot market. Pay attention to the marginal pressure of supply - demand and the warehouse receipts. Before the fundamental situation weakens significantly or the warehouse receipts flow out, still pay attention to the opportunity to expand the spread between the near - month and the 09 contract [2]. PVC - The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to effectively relieve. Pay attention to the change in India's BIS policy in June. Adopt a high - short strategy, and the operating range is 4500 - 5000 [2]. Synthetic Rubber - BR follows the commodity rebound. Hold the short position of BR2507 [2]. LLDPE - The spot price rises with the futures market, and the trading volume is moderate. It is in an oscillating state [2]. PP - The supply and demand are both weak, and it oscillates weakly. Adopt a high - short strategy [2]. Methanol - The inventory inflection point has appeared, and it is in an oscillating state [2]. Grains - The CBOT has stabilized and rebounded, and the two grains oscillate. M2509 oscillates in the range of 2900 - 3000 [2]. Live Pig - The demand is weak after the holiday, and the spot price is under pressure again. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [2]. Corn - The spot price is relatively stable, and the corn oscillates in a narrow range. It oscillates around 2330 in the short - term [2]. Palm Oil - The palm oil inventory may increase significantly, suppressing the increase in the market. Test the support at 8000 in the short - term [2]. White Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2]. Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. Egg - The spot price may weaken again. Short - sell on rebounds for the 07 contract and hold the short position [2]. Apple - It is in the off - season of demand, and the trading follows the market. The main contract operates around 7700 [2]. Orange Juice - The market price is weakly stable. It is in the process of bottom - building [2]. Peanut - The market price oscillates. The main contract operates around 8400 [2]. Special Commodities - For soda ash, the oversupply logic continues. Adopt a high - short strategy on rebounds and hold the short position. Conduct positive - arbitrage for the 7 - 9 spread. For glass, the market sentiment has reversed, and the futures price rebounds. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds. For rubber, the market sentiment has improved, and the rubber price rebounds slightly. Hold the short position and pay attention to the support at the 13000 level. For industrial silicon, the short - position closing on the industrial silicon futures market leads to a rebound. If there is a short position, it is recommended to close it. For polysilicon, although the warehouse receipts increase, the polysilicon futures price rebounds. If there is a long position, it is recommended to hold it carefully. For lithium carbonate, the sentiment improves, and the intraday futures price rebounds significantly, but the fundamental logic has not reversed. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - For zinc, the supply increase is less than expected, which supports the price. Pay attention to the inventory change. The main contract refers to the range of 21500 - 23500. For nickel, the sentiment improves, and the futures price oscillates and recovers, with little change in the fundamentals. The main contract refers to the range of 118000 - 126000. For stainless steel, the futures price mainly oscillates, with cost support and supply - demand contradictions still existing. The main contract refers to the range of 12600 - 13200 [3].