| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | 2025年7月3日 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 价差 | 品种 | 成新值 | 较前一日变化 | F期现价差 | -49.48 | 7.28 | 9.00% | 5.10% | | | | | | | | | -25.75 | H期现价差 | 2.16 | 7.70% | 4.20% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -36.35 | 30.32 | 34.40% | 33.60% | -192.48 | IM期现价差 | 47.88 | 30.00% | 2.60% | | 次月-当月 | -17.80 | -1.20 | 20.90% | 25.10% | 李月-景日 | -26 ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports mainly present daily data on various financial products, including futures price differences, spot-futures price relationships, and related economic indicators. They aim to help investors understand the current market situation and potential trends in different sectors such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, and shipping industry futures. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Differences**: Provides detailed data on the current values, changes from the previous day, and historical percentile rankings of price differences for various stock index futures contracts, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, in terms of both spot-futures spreads and inter - contract spreads [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Presents the current values, changes, and historical percentile rankings of cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc. [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis and Spread Data**: Offers data on the basis (including IRR percentile), inter - contract spreads, and cross - variety spreads for different treasury bond futures contracts like TS, TF, T, and TL, along with their changes and historical percentile rankings [2]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Shows domestic and international futures closing prices, spot prices, and their daily changes and percentage changes for gold and silver [5]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Presents basis data (including historical percentile rankings) and price ratios between different precious metal products [5]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Positions**: Provides information on interest rates (such as 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields), exchange rates (like the US dollar index and offshore RMB exchange rate), and inventory and position data for precious metals [5]. Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Freight Rates**: Includes Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rate references, settlement price indices, and Shanghai export container freight rates, along with their daily and monthly changes [8]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Presents futures prices and basis data for shipping industry futures contracts, and their changes and percentage changes [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: Offers data on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators [8]. Trading Calendar - **Overseas and Domestic Data/Info**: Lists overseas and domestic economic indicators and financial events, including their time, data sources, and related countries/regions or product types [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: Steel maintains a pattern of cost drag and weak demand expectations. The end of coking coal supply disruptions and the verification of future startup data are awaited. Iron ore inventory remains flat, and its valuation depends on finished product demand. Short - term Tangshan production restrictions may interfere with the market. Observe the pressure around 3150 for hot - rolled coils and 3050 for rebar [1]. - Iron Ore: The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated weakly yesterday. This week, global iron ore shipments decreased, and the arrival volume at ports dropped significantly. The demand side has high - level pig iron production, but there is a risk of weakening terminal demand in the off - season. In the future, pig iron production in July is expected to decline, and iron ore may turn to a moderately weak operation in the short term. A short - selling strategy is recommended for the 09 contract [5]. - Coke: As of yesterday's close, coke futures oscillated downward, and the spot market remained stable. After the fourth round of price cuts, the market is showing signs of a bottom. Supply may increase, demand will decline slightly, and inventory is at a medium level. A hedging strategy is recommended for the 2601 contract, and speculative investors are advised to wait and see [6]. - Coking Coal: As of yesterday's close, coking coal futures oscillated downward, and the spot market was moderately strong. The domestic coking coal market is showing signs of stabilization, and the supply may increase. The demand has some resilience, and inventory is at a medium level. A hedging strategy is recommended for the 2601 contract, and speculative investors are advised to wait and see [6]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices were mostly stable, with some minor fluctuations. Futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil had small increases. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and slabs remained unchanged. The cost of electric - arc furnace and converter rebar in Jiangsu had different trends, and the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions had varying degrees of increase [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the production of five major steel products increased. The inventory of five major steel products increased slightly, the rebar inventory decreased slightly, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [1]. - **Demand**: The daily average building materials trading volume decreased, and the apparent demand for five major steel products and hot - rolled coils decreased, while the apparent demand for rebar increased slightly [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts, spot prices, and price indices all decreased. The spreads between different contracts also changed [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped significantly. The demand side had high - level pig iron production, and the daily average port ore removal volume increased [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased, and the number of available days of inventory for 64 steel mills remained unchanged [5]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures prices oscillated downward, and the spot market remained stable. Coking coal futures prices also oscillated downward, and the spot market was moderately strong. The basis and spreads of coke and coking coal changed, and the profits of coking plants and coal mines decreased [6]. - **Supply**: The production of coke and coking coal had different trends. After the end of environmental inspections in June, the supply of coking coal is expected to increase [6]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke and coking coal is expected to decline slightly in July, with pig iron production remaining at 230 - 240 tons per day [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coke and coking coal showed different trends. Coke inventory decreased, and coking coal inventory was at a medium level with different parts showing different changes [6].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Short - term news boosts rubber prices, but with expected increase in supply and weak demand, subsequent rubber prices are likely to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to raw material supply in each producing area and macro - event disturbances [2] Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned new rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained at 13,950; the full - cream basis (switched to the 2509 contract) dropped 110 yuan/ton with a - 314.29% change; Thai standard mixed rubber quote increased 50 with a 0.36% rise [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased 20 yuan/ton with a - 2.34% change; the 1 - 5 spread increased 40 yuan/ton with a 61.54% change; the 5 - 9 spread decreased 20 yuan/ton with a - 2.17% change [2] - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's production increased 166,500 tons with a 157.52% rise; Indonesia's production increased 6,200 tons with a 3.19% rise; India's production increased 2,300 tons with a 5.07% rise; China's production increased 38,900 tons [2] - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory increased 10,313 tons with a 1.70% rise; natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory at the SHFE decreased 4,638 tons with a - 14.38% change [2] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View After the previous sharp rise in industrial silicon futures prices, the arbitrage window opened slightly. Today, prices dropped rapidly due to concerns about increased production in the southwest and by large enterprises. Although production cuts help reduce supply surplus, supply in July is still expected to be sufficient. Pay attention to the impact of coking coal futures prices [4] Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon increased 50 yuan/ton with a 0.59% rise; the basis (oxygen - permeable SI5530 benchmark) increased 20 yuan/ton with a 4.76% change [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased 15 yuan/ton with a - 30.00% change; the 2508 - 2509 spread increased 20 yuan/ton with a 400.00% change [4] - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the national industrial silicon production increased 20,000 tons with a 6.50% rise; Xinjiang's production increased 3,100 tons with a 1.90% rise; Yunnan's production increased 14,700 tons with a 146.26% rise [4] - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased 2,900 tons with a - 1.65% change; social inventory decreased 17,000 tons with a - 3.04% change [4] Group 3: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In July, with the reduction of electricity prices in the southwest's wet season, polysilicon futures increased in positions and decreased in price. The downstream product prices are still falling, and demand remains weak. The main contradiction in the polysilicon fundamentals is the mismatch between weak demand and restart expectations. Pay attention to changes in polysilicon production [5] Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon feedstock remained at 34,500 yuan/ton; the N - type feedstock basis (average price) increased 835 yuan/ton with an 86.53% change [5] - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract decreased 835 yuan/ton with a - 2.49% change; the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increased 300 yuan/ton with a 333.33% change [5] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased 0.54 GM with a 4.19% rise; monthly polysilicon production in June increased 4,900 tons with a 5.10% rise [5] - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory increased 8,000 tons with a 3.05% rise; silicon wafer inventory increased 1.37 GM with a 7.31% rise [5] Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: The market is in an obvious surplus pattern. Although producers still have some profits, there will be a further profit - reduction process. After the previous photovoltaic restart, demand growth is limited. After maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. Hold short positions [6] - **Glass**: Spot sales have weakened significantly. In the summer rainy season, deep - processing orders are weak, and the glass industry still faces surplus pressure. Short - term sentiment has turned weak, and a short - selling strategy can be considered for the 09 contract [6] Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: North China's glass quote increased 10 yuan/ton with a 0.88% rise; the glass 2509 contract decreased 26 yuan/ton with a - 2.58% change; the 05 basis increased 26 yuan/ton with a 2600.00% change [6] - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: North China's soda ash quote remained at 1,350 yuan/ton; the soda ash 2509 contract decreased 16 yuan/ton with a - 1.32% change; the 05 basis increased 18 yuan/ton with a 13.43% change [6] - **Supply**: Soda ash's operating rate decreased 4.36 percentage points with a - 5.04% change; weekly soda ash production decreased 38,000 tons with a - 5.04% change; float glass daily melting volume increased 1,000 tons with a 0.90% rise [6] - **Inventory**: Glass market inventory decreased 67,100 tons with a - 0.96% change; soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased 11,000 tons with a 0.63% rise; soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased 33,000 tons with a - 10.61% change [6] Group 5: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Yesterday, log futures weakened and fluctuated. The 2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/cubic meter, down 4 yuan/cubic meter. Fundamentally, from June to August, log demand enters the off - season. With low arrival data in July and expected seasonal reduction in New Zealand's shipments, the market is entering a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The log 2509 contract decreased 4 yuan/cubic meter with a - 0.51% change; the 7 - 9 spread was 28 yuan/cubic meter; the 09 contract basis was - 41 yuan/cubic meter [7] - **Import Cost**: The import theoretical cost was 775.09 yuan/cubic meter, a - 0.37% change [7] - **Supply**: Port shipments from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased 228,000 cubic meters with a - 13.20% change; the number of departing ships decreased 5 with a - 7.94% change [7] - **Inventory**: National coniferous log total inventory increased 10,000 cubic meters to 3.36 million cubic meters as of June 27 [7] - **Demand**: Log daily average outbound volume increased 0.21 million cubic meters to 6.57 million cubic meters as of June 27 [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil may briefly surge upward after oscillating and consolidating, while Dalian palm oil futures may briefly dip to 8,200 yuan. For soybeans, the USDA quarterly report has limited impact on CBOT soybeans, and the market expects ample supply and future high yields, but the report may show a decrease in US soybean oil inventory at the end of May. Domestically, the demand for soybean oil is weak, inventories are increasing, and the decline in spot basis quotes is limited [1]. Corn - The overall bullish trend of corn remains unchanged, but the pace is slow. In the short - term, the spot price is generally stable, with the price in the Northeast remaining firm and that in North China showing local declines. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap supports the upward movement of corn prices. Attention should be paid to the wheat market and policy information [3]. Meal - Supported by US soybean oil, US soybeans strengthened last night. The USDA's new planting area report had a neutral impact. The technical support for US soybeans has increased, and the market is showing signs of stabilization. In China, the inventories of soybeans and soybean meal are rising, the basis is stable, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. There are opportunities to buy at low points [6]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of pigs has not escaped the oscillating pattern. The short - term sentiment may be strong, but the 09 contract is under pressure due to the postponed inventory of live pigs [8][9]. Sugar - The increase in the ethanol blending ratio in Brazilian gasoline supports a slight rebound in raw sugar prices, but the global supply is becoming more abundant, limiting the rebound. The domestic market may maintain a bullish sentiment for some time, but considering future imports, the market is expected to turn bearish after the rebound [12]. Cotton - The contradiction of tight old - crop inventory in the upstream supply cannot be resolved in the short term, but the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. The downstream industry is weakening, and the demand is sluggish. Cotton prices are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [13]. Eggs - The supply of eggs in China is sufficient, the demand is average, and downstream procurement is cautious. Egg prices are expected to be stable first, then decline slightly in the short term, and remain stable later [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan on July 1, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of Y2509 was 7,972 yuan, down 0.15%. The basis was 268 yuan, up 4.69%. The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 20,582 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan on July 1, up 0.36%. The futures price of P2509 was 8,336 yuan, up 0.07%. The basis was 94 yuan, up 34.29%. The import cost was 8,719.3 yuan, and the import profit was - 383 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,630 yuan on July 1, up 0.52%. The futures price of OI2509 was 9,477 yuan, up 0.66%. The basis was - 12 yuan, down 7.27% [1]. Corn - **Corn**: The flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port was 2,383 yuan, up 0.21%. The 9 - 1 spread was 103 yuan, up 0.98%. The import profit was 580 yuan, up 3.52%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased by 182.87% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2509 was 2,743 yuan, up 0.37%. The basis was - 23 yuan, down 76.92%. The 9 - 1 spread was 65 yuan, up 8.33% [3]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,840 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2509 was 2,961 yuan, unchanged. The basis was - 121 yuan, unchanged. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans in August was 111 yuan, up 3.7% [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,490 yuan, up 0.81%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,586 yuan, up 0.54%. The basis was - 96 yuan, up 5.88%. The import crushing profit for Canadian rapeseed in November was 107 yuan, down 47.03% [6]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main contract price was 11,850 yuan, up 9.72%. The price of the 2507 contract was 13,935 yuan, up 0.61%, and that of the 2509 contract was 13,865 yuan, down 0.04%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 70 yuan, down 450% [8]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in various regions increased, with the price in Henan at 15,050 yuan, up 100 yuan; in Shandong at 15,250 yuan, up 150 yuan; etc. [8]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5,596 yuan, down 0.57%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5,775 yuan, down 0.55%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 15.70 cents per pound, down 3.03% [12]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 6,090 yuan, up 0.16%. The import cost of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) was 4,334 yuan, down 1.90% [12]. - **Industry**: The national sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, and the sales increased by 23.07% [12]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13,745 yuan, up 0.04%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13,755 yuan, down 0.04%. The price of ICE US cotton was 67.96 cents per pound, down 0.12% [13]. - **Spot**: The arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,187 yuan, up 0.46%. The CC Index 3128B was 15,212 yuan, up 0.38% [13]. - **Industry**: The inventory in the north decreased by 9.6% month - on - month, and the industrial inventory decreased by 1.2% [13]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3,684 yuan per 500 kg, down 0.14%. The price of the 08 contract was 3,568 yuan per 500 kg, up 0.06% [14]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the production area was 2.60 yuan per catty, down 1.43%. The base price was - 964 yuan per 500 kg, down 4.31% [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The improvement of the macro - situation drives up risk appetite, and the index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range. However, there are risks in different sectors, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended for each variety [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The macro situation has improved, the index has broken through the short - term shock range, and the dividend sector has rebounded. In the process of the central shift upward, be vigilant against the risk of chasing high. It is recommended to sell MO options with an exercise price of 5900 from August to September with a light position to collect option premiums. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on dips in the short term, take profit when approaching the previous high, and pay attention to economic data and capital trends. Also, pay attention to steepening the curve [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: At the beginning of the month, the capital market loosened, and treasury bonds rebounded as a whole, but there is currently no momentum to break through the previous high. In the short - term unilateral strategy, it is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on dips, take profit when approaching the previous high, and pay attention to economic data and capital trends. Also, pay attention to steepening the curve [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The threat of US tariffs has increased, the US dollar index has continued to decline, and gold has continued its rebound trend. If the gold price stabilizes above the 60 - day moving average, it will fluctuate above $3300; the silver price will oscillate in the range of $35.5 - $36.5. Pay attention to the impact of US economic data on the Fed's monetary policy expectations [2]. Black - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is recommended to wait and see for now. For arbitrage, pay attention to the operation of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The Tangshan production restriction policy may suppress iron ore demand. It is recommended to short at high levels, with the fluctuation range referring to 690 - 720 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, the expectation of coal mine复产 has strengthened, the spot is running strongly, the transaction has warmed up, and coal mine shipments have improved. It is recommended to wait and see, and then go long on dips or go long on coking coal and short on coke after stabilization [2]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, the coking profit has declined, and the price is approaching the phased bottom. It is recommended to wait and see, and then go long on dips or go long on coking coal and short on coke after stabilization [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices are suppressing downstream procurement. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000 [2]. - **Aluminum**: The oversupply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels in the medium term. The main contract reference range is 2750 - 3100 [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market follows the high - level oscillation of aluminum prices, and the fundamentals in the off - season remain weak. The main contract reference range is 19200 - 20000 [2]. - **Zinc**: The demand expectation is still weak, and the downstream willingness to take delivery is low. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 22500 [2]. - **Lead**: The market maintains an oscillation, the sentiment is temporarily stable, but the industrial overcapacity still restricts the market. The main contract reference range is 116000 - 124000 [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is weakly oscillating, the sentiment is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. The main contract reference range is 12300 - 13000 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The demand - side expectation has improved, driving the market to stabilize. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The support for WTI is in the range of [63, 64], the upper - end pressure for Brent is in the range of [64, 65], and the pressure level for SC is in the range of [480, 490] [2]. - **Urea**: The supply is at a high level while the demand release is insufficient, and the short - term market is likely to continue to bottom out. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term, and exit if the actual quota fails to meet the expectation. The support level for the main contract is adjusted to 1690 - 1700 [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand is tight, but the oil price support is limited. PX will maintain an oscillating trend in the short term. PX09 will oscillate in the range of 6600 - 6900 in the short term. Be cautious and bearish near the upper edge of the range; pay attention to the opportunity to widen the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is weakening, and the oil price support is limited. PTA will follow the raw materials to oscillate in the short term. TA will oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900 in the short term. Allocate bearishly at the upper edge of the range; temporarily exit the TA9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing fee is gradually being repaired. The unilateral strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA; mainly widen the processing fee at the low level of the PF market [2]. - **Bottle - chip**: It is the demand peak season, the production cuts of bottle - chips are gradually being implemented, the processing fee is bottoming out, and PR follows the cost to fluctuate. The unilateral strategy for PR is the same as that for PTA; conduct positive arbitrage on PR8 - 9 on dips; the processing fee of the PR main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to widen at the lower edge of the range [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply - demand is gradually becoming loose, and the short - term demand is weak. It is expected that MEG will be weakly sorted. Hold the seller of the short - term call option EG2509 - C - 4450; conduct reverse arbitrage on EG9 - 1 at high levels [2]. - **Styrene**: Styrene may continue to weaken. Pay attention to the continuation of the decline in oil prices. Look for high - level short - selling opportunities for styrene with raw - material resonance [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Butadiene is weakening, and there is pressure above BR. Short at high levels for BR2508 in the short term [2]. - **LLDPE**: The spot price is falling, and the trading is weak. It will oscillate in the short term [2]. - **PP**: The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the cost - side support is weakening. Treat it with caution and bearishly, and enter short positions at 7250 - 7300 [2]. - **Methanol**: The basis is strong. Pay attention to the later shipments from Iran. Wait and see [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans are oscillating at the bottom, and the lower - end support is strengthening. Conduct short - term operations [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot sentiment is strong, but the market is suppressed by profit - taking. Treat it with caution and bearishly [2]. - **Corn**: The import auction has a premium, and the market is slightly increasing steadily. Pay attention to the support at 2360 - 2370 [2]. - **Oils**: The decline in production supports the strong oscillation of palm oil. The reference range for P2509 is 8200 - 8500 [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Trade bearishly on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak. The market rushes up and then falls back. Hold short positions in the short term [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot market remains weak. Go long on short - term rebounds, but still be bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The trading is generally stable, and the transaction is priced according to quality. The main contract runs around 7700 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The market price is rising. The main contract runs around 9600 [2]. - **Peanuts**: The market price is oscillating steadily. The main contract runs around 8200 [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply logic is re - dominating the market, and the market is weakening again. Hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The spot sales are deteriorating, and the market is weakening. Adopt a short - term bearish thinking [2]. - **Rubber**: There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Continue to hold short positions above 14000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The resumption of production by southwestern enterprises has increased, and the industrial silicon price has declined. Wait and see [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures price is oscillating downward. Wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is fluctuating widely, the news disturbance is increasing, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 58,000 - 64,000 [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC market is rising. Wait and see cautiously. It is expected that the 08 contract will hover between 1800 - 2000. For unilateral operations, wait and see for now [2].

期现日报 拾资咨询业务资格· 证监许可 【2011】12 2025年7月2日 星期三 70015979 价格及基美 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 80205 | 79990 | +215.00 | 0.27% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 200 | 130 | +70.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 80075 | 79940 | +135.00 | 0.17% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 90 | 65 | +25.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 80080 | 79915 | +165.00 | 0.21% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 75 | રેર | +20.00 | | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 2161 | 2131 | +30.00 | 1.41% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | 240.67 | 319.83 | -79.16 | ...

型劇现日报 聚烯烃广 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年7月2日 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 品种 | 7月1日 | 6月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7214 | 7228 | -14 | -0.19% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7249 | 7261 | -12 | -0.17% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | eaal | 7012 | -16 | -0.23% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7044 | 7070 | -26 | -0.37% | | | L2509-2601 | રેટ | 33 | 2 | 6.06% | | | PP2509-2601 | 48 | 58 | -10 | -17.24% | TT/04 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7110 | 7150 | -40 | -0.56% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 7170 | 7200 | -30 | -0.42% | | | 华北塑料基差 | -8 ...

数据来源: Wind、Mysteel、广友期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。历史分位数:根据各品种近五年的基差水平排序 | 硅铁(SF509) | 5478 | 5270 | 208 | 3.95% | 71.90% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 5770 | 硅罐(SM509) | 146 | 50.00% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 5624 | 2.60% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 117 | 3120 | 3003 | HRB40020mm:上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | 3.90% | 53.90% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 64 | 热卷 (HC2510) | 3200 | 3136 | 2.04% | 44.20% | | | | | | 751 | 43 | 35.60% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF) ...