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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Overseas inventory is structurally imbalanced, and terminal demand is significantly suppressed. Yesterday, copper prices continued to rise, with short - term price fluctuations intensifying. The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory structural imbalances, and the Fed's actions support the price. SMM expects China's electrolytic copper production to rise in December, but high prices suppress demand, leading to inventory accumulation and weak downstream performance. The upward drive lies in further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations, while the downward drive is from weak demand. The short - term price is volatile, with the main focus on the 95,500 support level [1]. Aluminum - Alumina: The market has a supply - demand imbalance with stable supply growth and peaking demand, causing a negative feedback loop. Supply increases, leading to inventory accumulation and price decline. The price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with a reference range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to environmental policies and enterprise production cuts [3]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - level overseas easing expectations and domestic positive policies support the price, but the supply increases, demand enters the off - season, and inventory accumulates. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and inventory changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a state of oscillating and strengthening. The core contradiction is the game between strong cost support and weakening demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, pushing up costs, while high aluminum prices suppress downstream demand. The ADC12 price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to scrap - aluminum supply, environmental policies, and downstream orders [5]. Zinc - TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and terminal demand is weak, so zinc prices are oscillating weakly. Domestic zinc - ore production decreases in November, and the import window opens. Smelters cut production due to profit pressure, and refined - zinc production growth is limited. Downstream demand is generally weak at the end of the year, and social inventory is decreasing. The LME inventory increases, and the squeeze - out risk eases. The main support is at 22,850 - 22,950 [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, with increased imports in November and exports from Indonesia. The demand in South China shows some resilience, while that in East China is more restricted. The previous long positions should be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to macro - factors and supply - side recovery [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of short - term oscillation and repair. The market is trading around the expectation of tightened nickel - ore supply due to news from Indonesia. The domestic spot price falls, and the supply of refined nickel is tight. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support. However, the short - term reality is weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, restricting the upward price space. The main reference range is 123,000 - 130,000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is oscillating narrowly. The spot - market trading atmosphere is weak. The macro - environment is favorable, but the market has a strong expectation of tightened ore supply. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support, and the supply pressure eases slightly. However, the demand is in the off - season, and high inventory remains a problem. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust, with a main reference range of 12,500 - [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is in a state of wide - range oscillation. The recent news is abundant, and the fundamentals are in a state of strong supply and demand. The production is expected to increase in December, and the demand has some resilience, but the power - market orders decline in the off - season. The inventory decreases, and the tight - balance fundamentals support the price, but there is limited new driving force [16]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon market has stable spot prices and oscillating futures prices. The supply and demand are both decreasing steadily, and the expectation of production cuts is rising. The demand from polysilicon is expected to decline significantly. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a main range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production - cut intensity [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market has stable spot prices and a significant increase in futures prices. The exchange has introduced cooling measures. Upstream enterprises try to boost prices, but downstream profits are under pressure. The demand in the first quarter has no bright spots. The price is expected to remain high and oscillate, and attention should be paid to production cuts and price acceptance [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper is at 94,760 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread is 3,944 yuan/ton, up 11.29% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic - copper production was 110.31 million tons, up 1.05% month - on - month; imports were 27.11 million tons, down 3.90% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum is at 21,980 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The alumina prices in different regions are all down slightly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, down 4.44% month - on - month; domestic electrolytic - aluminum production was 363.66 million tons, down 2.82% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is at 21,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined - scrap spreads in different regions have different changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled - aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, up 5.74% month - on - month; that of primary - aluminum alloy ingots was 30.27 million tons, up 5.84% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot is at 23,080 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The import loss is - 2,669 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined - zinc production was 59.52 million tons, down 3.56% month - on - month; imports were 1.82 million tons, down 3.22% [9]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin is at 332,750 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The import loss is - 14,018.67 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin - ore imports were 11,632, up 33.49% month - on - month; SMM refined - tin production was 16,090, up 53.09% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is at 127,400 yuan/ton, down 2.15%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron price is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's refined - nickel production was 33,342, down 9.38% month - on - month; imports were 9,741, down 65.66% [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) is at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production was 178.70 million tons, down 0.72% month - on - month; Indonesia's was 42.35 million tons, up 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is at 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3.35%. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price is 1,440 US dollars/ton, up 0.42% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium - carbonate production was 95,350, up 3.35% month - on - month; demand was 133,451, up 5.11% [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: Huale Tongyang SI5530 industrial silicon is at 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 2601 - 2602 spread is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, national industrial - silicon production was 40.17 million tons, down 11.17% month - on - month; the national operating rate was 64.82%, down 4.84% [18]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: N - type re - feedstock average price is 52,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main - contract price is 60,760 yuan/ton, up 4.22% [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, polysilicon production was 11.46 million tons, down 14.48% month - on - month; imports were 0.11 million tons, down 27.05% [19].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the price of natural rubber rises due to the warming of commodity preference sentiment, but the overall fundamentals remain weak. It is recommended to try short - selling around 15,700 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On December 24th, the price of Yunnan Guofu whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 250 yuan/ton to 15,100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.68%. The whole - latex basis decreased by 110 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton, a decline of 25.00%. Other varieties also showed different price changes [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 100.00%, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton, a decline of 83.33% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, Thailand's production decreased by 48.30 thousand tons to 466.20 thousand tons, a decline of 9.39%. China's production increased by 23.70 thousand tons to 137.20 thousand tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles increased by 0.66 percentage points to 72.05%, while that of all - steel tires decreased by 2.19 percentage points to 61.95% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) increased by 16,339 tons to 515,227 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 605 tons to 58,968 tons, a decline of 1.02% [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Recently, the price of crude oil has been strengthening under the influence of geopolitics, but the geopolitical drive is still limited. The final price will return to be dominated by the oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the situation between the US and Venezuela and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [3]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: On December 24th, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.14 US dollars per barrel to 62.24 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.22%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 0.03 US dollars per barrel to 58.35 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.05% [3]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.39 cents per gallon to 174.71 cents per gallon, a growth rate of 0.22%, while NYM ULSD decreased by 3.30 cents per gallon to 215.76 cents per gallon, a decline of 1.51% [3]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The US gasoline crack spread increased by 0.19 US dollars per barrel to 15.03 US dollars per barrel, a growth rate of 1.31%, and the US diesel crack spread decreased by 1.36 US dollars per barrel to 32.27 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 4.03% [3]. Group 3: Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the overall supply - demand pattern of pure benzene remains weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the future. BZ2603 may fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 yuan/ton. This week, the supply and demand of styrene both increased. Although the price is boosted in the short - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the rebound space is limited. EB02 is expected to fluctuate mainly in the range of 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of WTI crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 58.35 US dollars per barrel [5]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of styrene in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton to 6700 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.8%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.2% [5]. - **Downstream Cash Flow and Inventory**: The cash flow of EPS decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, a decline of 100.00%. The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 1.30 tons to 27.30 tons, a growth rate of 5.0% [5]. Group 4: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Not provided Summary by Directory - **LPG Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the main contract PG2601 increased by 14 yuan/ton to 4235 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.33%. The PG01 - 02 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to 159 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 14.39% [8]. - **LPG Outer - Market Price**: The FEI forward M1 contract remained unchanged at 531 US dollars per ton, and the CP swap M1 contract decreased by 1.4 US dollars per ton to 508 US dollars per ton, a decline of 0.27% [8]. - **LPG Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage ratio remained unchanged at 23.7%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 22.4 thousand tons to 261 thousand tons, a decline of 7.89% [8]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of downstream PDH increased by 2.1 percentage points to 75.0%, while the operating rate of downstream MTBE decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 68.9% [8]. Group 5: Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: After the sharp rise of PX, be cautious about the current price. Do not rule out the possibility of the upstream price falling back due to substantial production cuts in the polyester sector. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. PX5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **PTA**: After the sharp rise following PX, be cautious about the current price. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. TA5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. EG5 - 9 can be in a short - position at high prices [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The absolute price has limited driving force and mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. Unilateral trading is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk can be shorted at high prices [10]. - **Polyester Bottle Chip**: PR unilateral trading is the same as PTA. The processing fee of the PR main contract on the disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton, and the processing fee can be shorted at high prices [10]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged at 540 US dollars per ton [10]. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The CFR China PX price remained unchanged at 901 US dollars per ton. The PX03 - PX05 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 4 yuan/ton, a decline of 75.0% [10]. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of PTA in East China increased by 35 yuan/ton to 5050 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.7%. The TA05 - TA09 spread increased by 16 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 20.5% [10]. - **MEG - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of MEG in East China increased by 80 yuan/ton to 3653 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 2.2%. The EG05 - EG09 spread decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 73 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.7% [10]. Group 6: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, urea prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The main futures contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm of equipment and the progress of downstream demand [11]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the 01 contract of urea decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 1712 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.41%. The 01 contract - 05 contract spread increased by 3 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 4.41% [11]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) remained unchanged at 900 yuan/ton, and the price of动力煤坑口 (伊金霍洛旗) increased by 10 yuan/ton to 520 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.96% [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production of domestic urea remained unchanged at 19.19 thousand tons. The weekly production decreased by 5.20 thousand tons to 133.34 thousand tons, a decline of 3.75% [11]. Group 7: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price and basis of polyolefins changed little today. The market sentiment cooled down, and the trading volume decreased compared with the previous period. In 2026, the polyolefin market is expected to face both cost reduction and profit compression, and the price center will further decline [12]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the L2601 closing price decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 6343 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.11%. The L15 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 47 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 18.97% [12]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of East China PP raffia remained unchanged at 6120 yuan/ton, and the basis of North China LLDPE remained unchanged at - 100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 1.22 percentage points to 82.6%. The enterprise inventory of PE decreased by 2.92 tons to 45.9 tons, a decline of 5.99% [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand of the caustic soda industry still has certain pressure. It is expected that the spot price of liquid caustic soda will be adjusted weakly and steadily in the short - term, and the price will fluctuate weakly in the long - term [13]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand fundamentals of PVC have weak support. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to operate in the range, and the price will weaken after a rebound [13]. Summary by Directory - **Spot and Futures Price**: On December 25th, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased by 15.6 yuan/ton to 2234.4 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.7%. The V2605 contract decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 4757 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.5% [13]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The FOB price of PVC in Southeast Asia remained unchanged at 600 US dollars per ton, and the export profit decreased by 66.5 yuan/ton to - 20.7 yuan/ton, a decline of 145.1% [13]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 88.5%. The total social inventory of PVC decreased by 0.7 tons to 51.1 tons, a decline of 1.3% [13]. Group 9: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. The port accumulates inventory significantly, while the inland market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, and the price fluctuates narrowly [14][15][16]. Summary by Directory - **Methanol Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the MA2601 closing price decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2129 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.23%. The MA15 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, a decline of 13.16% [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol increased by 1.28 tons to 40.397 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The port inventory increased by 19.37 tons to 141.3 tons, a growth rate of 15.89% [15]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased by 0.36 percentage points to 77.99%, while the operating rate of overseas upstream enterprises decreased by 3.47 percentage points to 60.5% [16]. Group 10: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and the price will continue to fluctuate and bottom - out. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities after the rebound [19]. - **Glass**: The spot price continues to be under pressure, and the market is expected to continue to weaken and fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [19]. Summary by Directory - **Related Price and Spread**: On December 26th, the North China quotation of glass decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1010 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.98%. The North China quotation of soda ash remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 1.91 percentage points to 82.74%. The factory inventory of soda ash increased by 0.5 tons to 149.93 tons, a growth rate of 0.33% [19]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area of real estate decreased by 14.26 percentage points to - 29.25%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the completed area increased by 21.34 percentage points to - 0.28% [19].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No information provided on report industry investment ratings. Group 2: Core Views of Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures may continue to rise but face pressure at the end of the month and during the New Year holiday. Domestic palm oil futures may weaken again. US biodiesel policy may boost CBOT soybean oil, and domestic soybean oil fundamentals are positive but high crushing margins may limit price increases. Domestic rapeseed oil basis is strengthening due to positive news and tight supply [1]. Sugar - Global sugar supply is expected to be loose, constraining price rebounds. In China, demand is picking up with the approaching festivals, but ample supply may limit the upside of Zhengzhou sugar futures [2]. Meal - US soybeans are in a bottom - oscillating pattern. In China, the spot meal market is loose, but concerns about customs policies and low expected arrivals in January and February may support soybean meal prices [3]. Cotton - US cotton exports are strong, and it will maintain an oscillating trend. In China, supply pressure is easing, and cotton prices are expected to rise after breaking through key resistance levels [5]. Live Pigs - Spot prices are stable, and seasonal demand is strong. The short - term futures market may show an oscillating and strengthening trend [9]. Corn - The corn market in Northeast and North China is quiet with stable prices. Demand is weak, and the market is in a stalemate. Attention should be paid to selling sentiment and policy releases [13]. Red Dates - The arrival of red dates in markets is lower than in previous years. The recent price rebound depends on consumption. It is recommended to hold short call options [16]. Apples - The apple consumption market is affected by substitutes, and only high - quality apples in Gansu are selling well. It is suggested to exit long positions [17]. Eggs - The egg supply is still relatively loose but is gradually easing. Demand may improve during festivals, and near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [19]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Spot Price**: Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8350 yuan, Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8490 yuan, and Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil is 9680 yuan [1]. - **Futures Price**: Y2605 soybean oil is 8044 yuan, P2605 palm oil is 8514 yuan, and OI605 rapeseed oil is 9361 yuan [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: Sugar 2601 is 5364 yuan/ton, Sugar 2605 is 5269 yuan/ton, and ICE raw sugar is 15.30 cents/pound [2]. - **Spot Market**: Nanning sugar is 5340 yuan/ton, and Kunming sugar is 5240 yuan/ton [2]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in Jiangsu is 3100 yuan, M2605 futures price is 2760 yuan [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Spot price in Jiangsu is 2430 yuan, RM2605 futures price is 2352 yuan [3]. Cotton - **Futures Price**: Cotton 2605 is 14255 yuan/ton, and ICE US cotton is 64.20 cents/pound [5]. - **Spot Price**: Xinjiang arrival price (3128B) is 15086 yuan [5]. Live Pigs - **Futures Price**: Live pigs 2605 is 11975 yuan/ton, and Live pigs 2603 is 11460 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spot Price**: Henan is 11800 yuan/ton, Shandong is 11950 yuan/ton [8]. Corn - **Corn**: Corn 2603 is 2189 yuan/ton, Jinzhou Port FAS price is 2280 yuan/ton [13]. - **Corn Starch**: Corn starch 2603 is 2484 yuan/ton, Changchun spot is 2570 yuan/ton [13]. Red Dates - **Futures Price**: Red dates 2605 (main contract) is 8905 yuan/ton [16]. - **Spot Price**: Cangzhou super - grade is 9560 yuan/ton [16]. Apples - **Futures Price**: Apple 2605 (main contract) is 9191 yuan/ton [17]. Eggs - **Futures Price**: Egg 01 contract is 3072 yuan/500KG, Egg 02 contract is 2946 yuan/500KG [19]. - **Spot Price**: Egg production area price is 2.87 yuan/jin [19].

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2603 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 国君空头减仓超 1000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2603 | 总持仓保持平稳 | 前二十席位增减仓不一 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2603 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 中信多空头各减仓超 2000 手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2603 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 中信多头减仓超 3000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -491.0 545.0 -2,460.0 -2,742.0 -563.0 197.0 -3,891.0 -3,977.0 -4,500 -4,000 -3,500 -3,000 -2,500 -2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 IF IH ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Views - Short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index has rebounded continuously. The broad - based ETF has also clearly flowed back recently, with limited downside space. The volatility is showing signs of recovery, and the robot concept has led the market. The RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and core assets are expected to rise. A bull spread strategy can be attempted on the CSI 300 index [2] - The 10 - year bond varieties are relatively stable, and the upper limit of the interest rate is not expected to deviate significantly from 1.85%. The T2603 contract should pay attention to the support around 107.6 - 107.8. For the 30 - year bond, the active bond yield around 2.28% may be the stage top, and the bottom of the TL contract may gradually become clear. Short - term attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF injection and the end - of - month treasury bond trading. In the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to buy the T contract varieties on dips. In the spot - futures strategy, appropriate participation in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis widening strategy can be considered [2] - Follow - up attention should be paid to the changes in the US economic and monetary policies and the adjustment of the new - year market asset allocation. For gold, the idea of buying on dips is the main strategy for unilateral long positions; silver's high volatility continues to give upward impetus to the price, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Attention should be paid to the repair of the domestic premium, and positions can be reduced or locked in at high prices before the Spring Festival. Palladium may continue to correct under the weak fundamentals, while platinum is relatively strong, and it is advisable to buy the platinum - palladium ratio on dips [2] - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Equity Index Futures - The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index has rebounded continuously. The broad - based ETF has also clearly flowed back recently, with limited downside space. The volatility is showing signs of recovery, and the robot concept has led the market. The RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and core assets are expected to rise. A bull spread strategy can be attempted on the CSI 300 index [2] Treasury Bond Futures - The 10 - year bond varieties are relatively stable, and the upper limit of the interest rate is not expected to deviate significantly from 1.85%. The T2603 contract should pay attention to the support around 107.6 - 107.8. For the 30 - year bond, the active bond yield around 2.28% may be the stage top, and the bottom of the TL contract may gradually become clear. Short - term attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF injection and the end - of - month treasury bond trading. In the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to buy the T contract varieties on dips. In the spot - futures strategy, appropriate participation in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis widening strategy can be considered [2] Precious Metals - Follow - up attention should be paid to the changes in the US economic and monetary policies and the adjustment of the new - year market asset allocation. For gold, the idea of buying on dips is the main strategy for unilateral long positions; silver's high volatility continues to give upward impetus to the price, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Attention should be paid to the repair of the domestic premium, and positions can be reduced or locked in at high prices before the Spring Festival. Palladium may continue to correct under the weak fundamentals, while platinum is relatively strong, and it is advisable to buy the platinum - palladium ratio on dips [2] Container Shipping Index - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel production is cut and inventories are reduced, and the price maintains a range - bound trend. The May rebar and hot - rolled coil should pay attention to the price ranges of 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3350 yuan respectively. The decline of hot - metal output may be limited, and the steel mills' restocking expectation supports the price. Short - term range - bound operation is the main strategy, with the reference range of 760 - 810 [2] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal prices at the production areas rise and fall alternately, and the Mongolian coal price fluctuates with the futures. The rebound space of the futures price is limited. It should be regarded as a range - bound market, and short positions can be established on rallies, with the reference range of 1000 - 1200. In December, the third round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the port trading price fluctuates with the futures. It should be regarded as a range - bound market, and short positions can be established on rallies, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800 [2] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Production cuts alleviate the supply - demand contradiction, and the cost is stable. It is in a bottom - range - bound market, with the reference range of 5500 - 5700. High inventories suppress the price rebound, and the cost side provides support. Short - term operation is recommended, and short positions can be tried when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [2] Non - ferrous Metals - The copper futures price has risen sharply, and the domestic spot discount has continued to widen. Short - term observation is recommended, and the main contract should pay attention to the support around 95500; the protective put option combination can continue to be held. The warehouse receipts of alumina are continuously decreasing, and the futures price fluctuates at a low level around the cash cost. The main contract operates in the range of 2600 - 2800, and short - term traders can lightly establish long positions on dips to bet on an emotional rebound. The social inventory of aluminum has increased by 35,000 tons, and the negative feedback of the off - season fundamentals has deepened. The main contract operates in the range of 21800 - 22600, and long positions can be established on dips [2] Energy and Chemicals - After the sharp rise of PX, the current PX price should be treated with caution. Long positions can be reduced at high prices, and it is not recommended to chase the rise; in the medium term, it can be treated with a low - buying strategy; the PX 5 - 9 low - level cash - and - carry arbitrage is the main strategy. PTA has risen sharply following PX, and the current price should be treated with caution. Long positions can be reduced at high prices, and it is not recommended to chase the rise; in the medium term, it can be treated with a low - buying strategy; the TA 5 - 9 low - level cash - and - carry arbitrage is the main strategy [2] Agricultural Products - The Brazilian sugarcane harvest is expected to be bountiful, and the impact of domestic policies should be noted. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The demand supports the market, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs has widened. The price is expected to be stable and slightly strong. The long - and short - term game continues to be deadlocked, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of supply. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It details the current market situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each category, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to significant spot discounts and inventory accumulation. Upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; downward drivers are weak demand. Suggest a light - position holding of a protective put option portfolio [2]. - **PP**: The basis weakens, and trading improves. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot coal prices vary, and the upside of the futures price is limited. Switch to short - selling on rallies [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, but cost supports the downside. Concerns about customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [4]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness and capital drive prices to maintain a strong - side oscillation. Hold long positions, and reduce or lock positions before the Spring Festival [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: A - share indices rise, and the basis of the four major stock index futures contracts is repaired. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index rebounds [7][8][9]. - **News**: Beijing eases housing purchase restrictions, and the US raises IPO liquidity thresholds [8][9]. - **Funding**: A - share trading volume is stable, and the central bank conducts net injections [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try a bull - spread strategy on the CSI 300 index [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures decline, and short - term bonds are relatively strong [10]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations result in net injections, and the funding rate is seasonally up but controllable [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider going long on the T contract on pullbacks and participate in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis - widening strategies [12]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Overseas markets are closed for holidays. Some precious metals experience price adjustments, with platinum strengthening and palladium once hitting the daily limit down [13][15]. - **Outlook**: The medium - to - long - term price of precious metals has an upward trend, but short - term fluctuations exist. Adopt a long - position strategy on dips [16]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: SCFIS and SCFI indices show an upward trend [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Container capacity increases, and demand in the eurozone and the US is weak [19]. - **Logic**: The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, with limited drivers, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Hold protective put options [24]. - **Alumina**: The market is oversupplied, and the price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line [26]. - **Aluminum**: The market is in a state of macro - positive expectations versus fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [29]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: High costs and weak demand limit price movements, and the price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31]. - **Zinc**: TC stabilizes, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36]. - **Tin**: Supply is improving, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [40]. - **Nickel**: The market is affected by expectations of tightened ore supply, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of strong expectations versus weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation, with strong capital sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate widely [50]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation, with demand weakness. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to production - cut implementation [55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production is cut, and inventory is reduced. The price is expected to oscillate. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread and looking for opportunities to go long on the 5 - month iron - ore ratio [57][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a short - term range - trading strategy on the 05 contract [60]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply may decrease, and demand is weak. Switch to short - selling on rallies [66]. - **Coke**: The third price cut is implemented, and the price is expected to decline. Switch to short - selling on rallies [70][71]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is reduced, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [73]. - **Silicon Manganese**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the price is expected to run weakly. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [76]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, and customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [79]. - **Pigs**: Seasonal demand supports the market, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [81]. - **Corn**: Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is in a stalemate. Pay attention to selling sentiment and policy releases [84]. - **Sugar**: The international market is bearish, and the domestic market may have limited rebounds. Adopt a bearish - on - rebounds strategy [85]. - **Cotton**: US cotton oscillates at the bottom, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise. The supply pressure is released, and the long - term outlook is optimistic [88]. - **Eggs**: Supply pressure is high but eases marginally. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [92]. - **Oils**: Palm oil may continue to rise but also faces downward risks. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different market situations. Adopt corresponding strategies according to different varieties [93][95][96]. - **Jujubes**: The price rebounds. Pay attention to sales in the distribution areas. Consider selling call options [97]. - **Apples**: The price oscillates. Consider closing long positions [98]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Valuation increases, and downstream feedback is negative. The upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [100]. - **PTA**: Follow PX trends, and the upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [102]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. Follow raw - material fluctuations [104]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply is expected to increase, and processing fees may be compressed. Adopt the same strategy as PTA and short - sell processing fees on rallies [106]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to decrease, but the cost support is limited. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a 5 - 9 reverse - arbitrage strategy [108]. - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [109]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [111]. - **LLDPE**: Supply and demand are weak. Go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [113]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to balance in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the contraction of MTO05 [114]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the price is expected to decline [116]. - **PVC**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after a rebound [117]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Short - sell on rallies [120]. - **Glass**: The price is under pressure. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [120]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price is driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. Try short - selling around 15700 [122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Avoid short - selling the BR2602 contract [124][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][5][6] 2. Core Views Steel - Steel price center has risen, rebar basis has weakened, and hot-rolled coil basis has remained stable. Steel maintains production cuts and inventory reduction. The inventory reduction is acceptable under the influence of production cuts, but the inventory structure is still differentiated. Rebar has a better inventory reduction and runs at a relatively low inventory level. After the production cut of hot-rolled coils, the inventory reduction is slow, and the inventory remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year. Production cuts support steel prices, and with the stabilization of coking coal prices, steel prices have rebounded from the low level, but the demand is weak, and the upward driving force is insufficient. Overall, it is judged to maintain a range-bound trend. It is expected that rebar will maintain a range of 3000 - 3200, and hot-rolled coils will maintain a range of 3150 - 3350. The 1 - 5 positive spread of rebar can continue to be held; the long position in the rebar - iron ore ratio arbitrage can be held [1] Iron Ore - Yesterday, the iron ore 09 contract fluctuated. In terms of news, Beijing introduced relevant policies to optimize and adjust the housing purchase restriction policy, including relaxing purchase qualifications and reducing the down - payment ratio for second - home purchases with provident fund loans. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipment decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis but still remained at a high level in the same period of history. The year - end production rush of the two major mines still supports the supply. The arrival volume decreased slightly, and the absolute value is at a high level in the same period of history. According to the shipment calculation, the arrival volume will remain at a relatively high level in the next two weeks. On the demand side, the molten iron production continued to decline on a week - on - week basis, and the overall level dropped to a relatively low level in history. According to SMM statistics, the blast furnace maintenance volume increased by 0.01 million tons week - on - week last week and will decrease by 2.99 million tons week - on - week next week. Steel mills may resume production, but the resumption strength is expected to be not strong. In terms of inventory, the inventory increased significantly on a week - on - week basis on Monday. It is expected that with the arrival volume remaining at a moderately high level, the port clearance volume will decline under production cuts, and iron ore will still maintain an inventory accumulation pattern, but the marginal inventory accumulation space will be less than before. The subsequent BHP negotiation result will determine when to address the high - inventory contradiction. Looking forward to the future, the key lies in the BHP negotiation, the molten iron trend, and the steel mill restocking expectation. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is difficult to lead to a trend - like decline, while the price is obviously suppressed by the high inventory above. As the steel mill production resumption increases, considering the limited downward space of molten iron and the raw material restocking demand, it is expected that the iron ore price may rebound slightly. Strategically, it is recommended to mainly conduct short - term range trading on the 05 contract, with the reference range of 760 - 810 [3] Coke - Yesterday, the coke futures fluctuated. On the spot side, the third round of coke price cuts landed on December 22, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the short term. The port price has fallen in advance and is currently stable. On the supply side, the coal mine shipment has improved to some extent, the daily production has decreased slightly, the coal mine has accumulated inventory due to slow sales, and the coal mine production may continue to decline near the end of the year. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the Mongolian coal quotation fluctuates with the futures. At the end of the year, the mines are rushing to ship. On the demand side, steel mills' losses have increased, leading to more maintenance, the molten iron production has declined, and steel prices are fluctuating at a low level, with the intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coking plants have accumulated inventory, while ports and steel mills have reduced inventory. The overall inventory has slightly decreased from a medium level, and the coke supply - demand has weakened. The coke futures have fallen in advance, and the spot price decline refers to the coking coal decline space. Strategically, after the third round of spot price cuts, the basis has weakened, and the expected - driven rebound is difficult to sustain. The long position in the coke 2605 contract should be closed for profit [5] Silicon Iron - Yesterday, the silicon iron futures fluctuated with a narrowing range. In terms of news, a 40500kva silicon iron furnace in Shenmu was shut down, reducing the daily production of 75 - silicon by 100 tons. A 45000kva silicon iron furnace in a Baotou enterprise was restarted, increasing the daily production of 72 - silicon by 120 tons. The production of a 40500kva silicon iron furnace in Shaanxi was affected, with a daily production reduction of 100 - 120 tons, and the production suspension time is to be determined. On the supply side, last week, the production reduction of silicon iron expanded, and the production increase was mainly concentrated in Ningxia and Qinghai. Manufacturers' losses continued to deepen, and they tried to ease the supply - demand contradiction through passive production cuts and conversions. The subsequent focus is on the supply change. The molten iron production has continued to decline on a week - on - week basis, and the inventory contradiction of plates has intensified, but the inventory - consumption ratio is still at a high - level. The molten iron production will decline, but the downward space may be limited. In the short term, the demand for silicon iron in steelmaking and ferroalloy production will maintain a contraction pattern. In terms of non - steel demand, the national iron and steel production will decline, but the downstream restocking will increase at the end of the month, yet the downstream's acceptance of high prices is poor. In terms of exports, there are many orders overseas, but the high - price acceptance is insufficient. In addition, the re - export trade of Russia and North Korea still has an impact. In terms of cost, the semi - coke price has slightly declined, and the low - cost power regions have a relative advantage. Looking forward to the future, the supply - demand contradiction of silicon iron is still difficult to resolve, but the production reduction expectation has been partially priced in, and the subsequent demand improvement expectation is insufficient, so the price rebound lacks sustainability. The production reduction has already affected the price, and the cost side should focus on the coal price change. In the short term, it is expected that the price will fluctuate in a range, with the reference range of 5500 - 5700 [6] Silicon Manganese - Yesterday, the silicon manganese futures fluctuated. In terms of news, a high - silicon manganese plant in Inner Mongolia recently converted 2 ore - smelting furnaces to produce silicon manganese 6517, and the subsequent specific production situation depends on the actual production of the factory. On the supply side, the production in the main production areas has decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, the production in the low - cost areas is relatively stable, and there is still a certain expectation of capacity reduction in the Inner Mongolia area recently. The southern main production areas maintain production cuts. The molten iron production has continued to decline on a week - on - week basis, and although the inventory contradiction of plates has intensified to some extent, the inventory - consumption ratio is still at a high - level. The molten iron production will decline, but the downward space may be limited. In the short term, the demand for silicon manganese will maintain a contraction pattern. The steel mills' price - pressing sentiment is strong. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory still remains at a high - level, and the insufficient production - cut strength results in a limited year - on - year and month - on - month inventory reduction. The supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. In terms of cost, the manganese ore price is firm, and the quotes of some overseas mines for January have been raised. The electricity price is basically stable, and the short - term manganese ore inventory provides certain support for the cost. Overall, silicon manganese is in a situation where its own supply is in excess, but the overall situation is relatively balanced. The manganese ore provides certain support for the silicon manganese price. The key in the future lies in the production - cut amplitude, the end - of - year winter restocking of steel mills, and the raw material restocking expectation. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction has been priced in to some extent, and there is no clear signal of a significant rebound. It is expected that the subsequent price will still operate weakly, but the trend - like decline amplitude is limited. Strategically, it is advisable to consider shorting when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost, mainly for short - term trading [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3320 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 8 yuan/ton, 4 yuan/ton, and 5 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3270 yuan/ton, 3180 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 4 yuan/ton, 6 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. - The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 5 yuan/ton to 3229 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 11 yuan/ton to 3167 yuan/ton. - The profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 6 yuan/ton, and the profit of North China hot - rolled coils increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 96 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average molten iron production decreased by 2.4 tons to 226.6 tons, a decrease of 1.1%. - The production of the five major steel products decreased by 8.3 tons to 798.0 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. - The rebar production increased by 2.9 tons to 181.7 tons, an increase of 1.6%. Among them, the electric - arc furnace production increased by 1.8 tons to 29.3 tons, an increase of 6.3%, and the converter production increased by 1.2 tons to 152.4 tons, an increase of 0.8%. - The hot - rolled coil production decreased by 16.8 tons to 291.9 tons, a decrease of 5.4% [1] Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 37.3 tons to 1294.8 tons, a decrease of 2.8%. - The rebar inventory decreased by 27.0 tons to 452.5 tons, a decrease of 5.6%. - The hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.4 tons to 390.7 tons, a decrease of 1.6% [1] Transaction and Demand - The building material trading volume increased by 0.7 to 8.6, an increase of 7.9%. - The apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased by 4.4 to 835.3, a decrease of 0.5%. - The apparent demand of rebar increased by 5.5 to 208.6, an increase of 2.7%. - The apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased by 13.7 to 298.3, a decrease of 4.4% [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines were 836.9 yuan/ton, 846.8 yuan/ton, 843.1 yuan/ton, and 884.0 yuan/ton respectively. The PB fines and Brazilian blended fines increased by 1.1 yuan/ton and 2.2 yuan/ton respectively. - The 05 - contract basis of Karara fines decreased by 1.0 to 57.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.7%. The 05 - contract basis of Brazilian blended fines increased by 1.2 to 63.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.9%. - The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 21.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.3%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 to 18.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.8% [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 76.7 tons to 2646.7 tons, a decrease of 2.8%. - The global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 128.0 tons to 3464.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6%. - The national monthly import volume decreased by 74.7 tons to 11054.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 2.6 tons to 226.6 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. - The 45 - port daily average clearance volume (weekly) decreased by 5.7 tons to 313.5 tons, a decrease of 1.8%. - The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 320.6 tons to 6234.3 tons, a decrease of 4.9%. - The national monthly crude steel production decreased by 212.6 tons to 6987.1 tons, a decrease of 3.0% [3] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) compared with Monday increased by 130.2 tons to 15512.63 tons, an increase of 0.8%. - The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 110.3 tons to 8724.0 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. - The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) increased by 1.0 to 21.0 days, an increase of 5.0% [3] Coke Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1561 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton. - The coke 01 contract increased by 3 yuan/ton to 1599 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 01 contract increased by 3 yuan/ton to 1047 yuan/ton. - The coke 05 contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1746 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 05 contract increased by 7 yuan/ton to 1132 yuan/ton [5] Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 tons to 63.0 tons, a decrease of 1.5%. - The daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons to 46.5 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. - The raw coal production decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decrease of 0.34%. - The clean coal production decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [5] Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.6 tons to 226.6 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 tons to 63.0 tons, a decrease of 1.5% [5] Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 3.3 tons to 900.5 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. - The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8 tons to 91.1 tons, an increase of 4.3%. - The coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 6.6 tons to 633.7 tons, a decrease of 1.5%. - The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 tons to 1036.3 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 10.3 tons to 805.0 tons, an increase of 1.3%. - The port inventory decreased by 5.5 tons to 175.7 tons, a decrease of 3.14% [5] Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the silicon iron main contract increased by 8 yuan/ton to 5656 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For some varieties like tin (SN2602), plastic (L2605), and sugar (SR2605), they are short - term bullish; for others like silver (AG2602), it is fluctuating bullish [3]. - Stock index futures are expected to move in a range with structural differentiation among sectors. It is advisable to observe cautiously and consider a bull - spread strategy on deep single - day pullbacks [3]. - Treasury bond futures are in a volatile consolidation. For T2603, pay attention to the support around 107.6 - 107.8. Consider going long on T contracts on pullbacks and engage in cash - and - carry and basis - widening strategies for the 2603 contracts [3]. - Precious metals are affected by the strong US dollar. Gold and silver are recommended to hold long positions, reduce positions or lock in profits before the Spring Festival. Palladium may have a significant pullback [3]. - The container shipping index (European line) EC2602 is expected to be volatile in the short term. Steel products' prices are in a range - bound movement. Iron ore prices are supported by the expected restocking of steel mills [3]. - Energy and chemical products have different trends. For example, PX and PTA should be treated with caution after a sharp rise, while LLDPE can be short - term long on the 2605 contract [3]. - Agricultural products have various trends. For instance, soybeans and rapeseeds are in a narrow - range fluctuation, and sugar is in a short - term rebound [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Tin (SN2602) and plastic (L2605): Take profit on long positions, short - term bullish [3]. - Coking coal (JM2605): Take profit on long positions [3]. - Sugar (SR2605): Short - term bullish [3]. - Silver (AG2602): Fluctuating bullish [3]. Full - Variety Daily Review Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: The index rebounds after the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike. Small - and medium - cap indexes are strong with sectoral differentiation. The market is expected to move in a range. Consider a bull - spread strategy on deep single - day pullbacks [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: 10 - year varieties are relatively stable. T2603 pays attention to the support around 107.6 - 107.8. Consider going long on T contracts on pullbacks and engage in cash - and - carry and basis - widening strategies for the 2603 contracts [3]. - Precious Metals: Affected by the strong US dollar, gold and silver are recommended to hold long positions, reduce positions or lock in profits before the Spring Festival. Palladium may have a significant pullback [3]. Commodity Futures - Container Shipping Index (European Line): EC2602 is expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. - Steel Products: Steel prices are in a range - bound movement. The 5 - month rebar and hot - rolled coil focus on the ranges of 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3350 yuan respectively [3]. - Iron Ore: The decline in molten iron is limited, and the expected restocking of steel mills supports the price. Short - term range trading is recommended [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Both are viewed as volatile. Take profit on long positions and pay attention to the specified price ranges [3]. - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Ferrosilicon is in a bottom - range fluctuation, while manganese silicon can be shorted on rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [3]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Different non - ferrous metals have different trends. For example, copper is recommended to wait and see, and zinc's cross - market reverse arbitrage can be held [3]. - Energy Products: Polysilicon is in a high - level fluctuation, and lithium carbonate is expected to be in a wide - range fluctuation after a pullback. PX and PTA should be treated with caution after a sharp rise [3]. - Chemical Products: Different chemical products have different trading strategies. For example, LLDPE can be short - term long on the 2605 contract, and PP focuses on the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - Agricultural Products: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, soybeans and rapeseeds are in a narrow - range fluctuation, and sugar is in a short - term rebound [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The log futures market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Recent log futures prices have recovered to near the warehouse receipt cost. The latest data shows a significant reduction in inventory on a week - on - week basis. With the approaching New Zealand holidays, there is an expectation of a decrease in future shipments. Meanwhile, demand remains stable but weak [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On December 24, the prices of log futures contracts (2601, 2603, 2605) all increased compared to December 23, with increases of 0.26%, 0.78%, and 0.38% respectively. The spreads between different contracts and the basis of some contracts decreased. Spot prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged. The import cost decreased slightly, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar also decreased slightly [2]. Supply - In November, the port shipping volume was 189.2 million cubic meters, a decrease of 6.01% compared to October. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 9.26%. From December 22 - 28, 2025, the number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 9, a decrease of 40% week - on - week, and the arrival volume was about 30.9 million cubic meters, a decrease of 41% week - on - week [2][3]. Inventory - As of December 19, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 260 million cubic meters, a decrease of 4.41% compared to December 12. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [2][3]. Demand - As of December 19, the average daily outbound volume of logs in China was 6.32 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2% compared to December 12. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 3%, while that in Jiangsu increased by 1% [3].