1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - The market sentiment is overly high recently, and there is a risk of a decline. Attention should be paid to the macro - situation and the supply - side recovery [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The strong cost and weak demand make the price of ADC12 have limited upward and downward space. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20800 - 21800 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Industry - For alumina, the policy is more sentiment - driven and difficult to reverse the supply - demand fundamentals in the short term. The price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract reference range of 2650 - 2950 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, the market is dominated by the game between strong macro - expectations and weak fundamentals. The price is expected to remain in a high - level wide - range fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21800 - 22800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc Industry - The short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The support comes from the tight domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc ingot inventory, while the pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores. Attention should be paid to the import profit and loss, TC inflection point, and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract focusing on the 22850 - 22950 support [7]. Copper Industry - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but the short - term price is over - estimated to some extent. In a market with high speculative sentiment and risk preference, the price may remain strong in the short term. It is not advisable to short on the left side before the bullish logic reverses and the price shows a peak signal. Attention should be paid to overseas inventory changes and CL premium changes [10]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The short - term supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. The destocking has slowed down. The price may remain strong in the short term under the support of capital sentiment, but attention should be paid to the risk of regulatory tightening and profit - taking adjustment of funds [14]. Nickel Industry - The expectation of increased nickel ore control in Indonesia drives the recent sentiment to strengthen, but the short - term reality is still weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 123000 - 130000 [15]. Stainless Steel Industry - The supply pressure has eased slightly, and the cost support of ore and ferronickel has strengthened, but the demand boost in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term market sentiment is boosted, but the supply - demand game continues. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13200 [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both stable with a downward trend, and the expectation of production reduction is further heating up. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction intensity [20]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon price remains in a high - level shock. In January, under the background of weak demand, there is further production reduction pressure if supply - demand balance is to be achieved. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the production reduction situation and price adjustment acceptance [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.60%, SMM 1 tin premium increased by 900.00%, etc. The import profit and loss decreased by 13.49%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed significantly [2]. Fundamental Data - In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.81%, etc. SHEF inventory increased by 4.72%, and social inventory increased by 2.02% [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price increased by 0.23%, and the refined - scrap price difference of some varieties changed. The monthly spread of some contracts also changed [4]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 6.93%, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 2.06% [4]. Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.18%, and the prices of alumina in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 44.9 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%, etc. The operating rate of some aluminum products decreased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 6.75% [5]. Zinc Industry Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.52%, the import profit and loss decreased by 177.63 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, refined zinc exports increased by 402.59%. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide increased, and the seven - place social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 6.14% [7]. Copper Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 3.14%, the refined - scrap price difference increased by 6.95%, the import profit and loss decreased by 129.00 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [10]. Fundamental Data - In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and imports decreased by 3.90%. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased by 16.77% [10]. Lithium Carbonate Industry Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 6.67%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [14]. Fundamental Data - In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, demand increased by 5.11%, imports decreased by 7.64%, and exports increased by 208.75%. The total inventory decreased by 23.36% [14]. Nickel Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.81%, the futures import profit and loss increased by 83.57%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [15]. Fundamental Data - In November, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.82%, and social inventory decreased by 1.43% [15]. Stainless Steel Industry Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [17]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 0.72%, and exports increased by 13.18%. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.43% [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [20]. Fundamental Data - In November, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, the organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, and the export volume increased by 21.78%. The Xinjiang inventory increased by 2.33%, and the social inventory increased by 0.36% [20]. Polysilicon Industry Price and Spread - The average price of N - type re - feed increased by 0.10%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed significantly [21]. Fundamental Data - In November, polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%, imports decreased by 27.05%, and exports increased by 108.68%. The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.88% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Natural Rubber Industry - Short - term rubber price may rise due to commodity preference sentiment, but the overall fundamentals are weak. Consider short - selling around 15700 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: The supply - demand pattern is bearish, prices are in a downward trend with occasional technical rebounds. Look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds [3]. - Glass: The spot market is under pressure, and the 05 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom before positive drivers emerge [3]. Crude Oil Industry - International crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical events. The supply is in excess, and prices are expected to fluctuate between 60 - 65 dollars per barrel. Monitor EIA data and geopolitical developments [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The short - term supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 5300 - 5600. - Styrene: The short - term rebound space is limited. Consider short - selling EB02/03 above 6800 and narrowing the EB spread [6]. Polyolefin Industry - PP: Supply increases while demand decreases, and the 05 contract may face pressure if there are few planned maintenance in 1 - 3 months. - PE: Supply and demand are both weak, but the marginal situation is improving, and short - term pressure is relieved [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The supply - demand is weak, inventory is high, and the rebound height is limited. - PVC: The spot fundamentals are weak, and it is difficult to support price increases [8]. Urea Industry - The short - term supply is high, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate widely, with the futures main contract focusing on the 1700 - 1760 range [9]. LPG Industry No clear overall view provided in the given LPG - related content. Ester Industry - PX: The short - term supply - demand may weaken, with prices adjusting before the Spring Festival. Consider exiting long positions, short - selling for the aggressive, and low - buying in the medium - term. - PTA: Follow raw material fluctuations. Exit long positions, short - sell for the aggressive, and low - buy in the medium - term. - MEG: Overseas supply may shrink, but near - month inventory accumulation is expected, and price increases face resistance. - Short - fiber: Follow raw material fluctuations, and narrow the processing spread when it is high. - Bottle chips: Domestic supply is expected to increase, and compress the processing spread when it is high [13]. Methanol Industry - The port may face inventory accumulation in December, and the supply - demand balance may turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The inland price oscillates narrowly. Monitor inventory reduction after the actual arrival at the port decreases [16]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan state - owned full - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose from 15200 to 15300, with a 0.66% increase. - The full - latex basis increased by 9.43% to - 480 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 50% to 15 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Consumption - Thailand's November production decreased by 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons. - China's November production increased by 23.70 thousand tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 3.28% to 515227 tons [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - North China glass price remained at 1010 yuan/ton. - The 01 basis of glass decreased by 5.13% to 74 yuan/ton [3]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - Northwest soda ash price decreased by 4.21% to 910 yuan/ton. - The 01 basis of soda ash decreased by 3.24% to 179 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - Soda ash weekly output decreased by 1.33% to 71.18 million tons [3]. Inventory - Soda ash factory inventory decreased by 4.06% to 143.85 million tons [3]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil decreased by 2.57% to 60.64 dollars per barrel [4]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB decreased by 2.86% to 169.71 cents per gallon [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 2.6% to 60.64 dollars per barrel. - The pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 3.9% to 133 dollars/ton [6]. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - Styrene East China spot price increased by 2.4% to 6700 dollars/ton [6]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 3.4% to 13.93 million tons [6]. Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 6388 yuan/ton, up 0.73%. - The L15 spread decreased by 61.70% to - 76 yuan/ton [7]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory decreased by 5.99% to 45.9 million tons [7]. Operating Rates - PE device operating rate decreased by 1.46% to 82.6% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Spot and Futures Prices - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% decreased by 0.7% to 2218.8 yuan/ton. - V2605 increased by 1.6% to 4832 yuan/ton [8]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.2% to 88.7%. - PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9% to 75.4% [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory decreased by 2.6% to 22.1 million tons [8]. Urea Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The 01 contract of urea decreased by 0.48% to 1667 yuan/ton [9]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily output remained at 19.19 million tons. - Factory inventory decreased by 9.39% to 106.89 million tons [9]. LPG Industry LPG Prices and Spreads - The main PG2601 contract increased by 0.07% to 4238 yuan/ton. - The PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 0.63% to 158 yuan/ton [11]. Inventory and Operating Rates - LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 1.69% to 24.1%. - Downstream PDH operating rate increased by 1.81% to 76.4% [11]. Ester Industry Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 2.6% to 60.64 dollars per barrel. - CFR China PX increased by 2.0% to 918 dollars/ton [13]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price increased by 2.0% to 6570 yuan/ton [13]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate increased by 0.6% to 79.5% [13]. Methanol Industry Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2130 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. - The MTO05盘面 increased by 13.18% to - 191 [14]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 3.28% to 40.397 million tons [15]. Operating Rates - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.46% to 77.99% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1. Index Futures Spread Report - Presents detailed data on various index futures spreads including IF, IH, IC, and IM, such as current values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles [1] 2.2. Bond Futures Basis and Spread Report - Provides data on bond futures basis (TS, TF, T, TL) and spreads, including IRR, current values, changes from the previous day, and percentiles since listing [2] 2.3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Report - In the long - term, gold prices may rise due to early capital allocation. Short - term, the market will be in a strong - side shock. For silver, beware of the risk of speculative long - positions taking profits at high levels. Platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term, but there may be short - term corrections [3] 2.4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Report - Shows data on container shipping indexes, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data, including shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, export amounts, and overseas economic data [4] 3. Summary of Each Report by Section 3.1. Index Futures Spread Report 3.1.1. Spread Data - IF spread: F - period spread is 7.12, H - period spread is 1.16, with corresponding changes and percentiles [1] - IH, IC, IM spreads: Provide current values, changes, and percentiles for different spread types (e.g., inter - period spreads) [1] 3.1.2. Cross - Variety Ratios - Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc., with current values, changes, and percentiles [1] 3.2. Bond Futures Basis and Spread Report 3.2.1. Basis Data - TS, TF, T, TL basis: Provide IRR, current values, changes, and percentiles since listing [2] 3.2.2. Spread Data - Inter - period spreads for TF, T, TL, and cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF, TS - T) with current values, changes, and percentiles [2] 3.3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Report 3.3.1. Futures Closing Prices - Domestic futures (AU2602, AG2602, etc.) and foreign - market futures (COMEX gold, COMEX silver, etc.) with closing prices, changes, and percentage changes [3] 3.3.2. Spot Prices - London gold, London silver, and domestic spot prices (SGE gold, SGE silver, etc.) with prices, changes, and percentage changes [3] 3.3.3. Basis and Ratios - Basis data (e.g., gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract) and price ratios (e.g., COMEX gold/silver) with current values, changes, and percentiles [3] 3.3.4. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield, 2 - year US Treasury yield, etc., with current values, changes, and percentage changes [3] 3.3.5. Inventory and Positions - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver inventories, COMEX gold and silver inventories, etc., with values, changes, and percentage changes [3] 3.4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Report 3.4.1. Shipping Indexes - SCFIS (European and US - West routes), SCFI comprehensive index, and its sub - indexes (European, US - West, US - East) with prices, changes, and percentage changes [4] 3.4.2. Futures Prices and Basis - Futures contract prices (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) and basis (main contract) with values, changes, and percentage changes [4] 3.4.3. Fundamental Data - Shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators (Shanghai port on - time rate, port calls), export amounts, and overseas economic data (eurozone PMI, US manufacturing PMI, etc.) with values, changes, and percentage changes [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about the industry investment ratings is provided in the reports [1][3][5][6] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel - Current steel production continues to decline and inventory is being reduced. Production cuts support steel prices, and with the stabilization of coking coal prices, steel prices are recovering from the low level. However, due to weak demand, the upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate in a range, with rebar fluctuating between 3000 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil between 3150 - 3350. The rebar production has stopped falling, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. The 1 - 5 positive spread can gradually exit the market. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the 5 - month rebar - iron ore ratio expansion [1] Iron Ore - In the short term, it is difficult for the iron ore supply - demand contradiction to form a trend - based decline. The price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to mainly operate within the short - term range of 760 - 810 for the 05 contract. Future attention should be paid to the BHP negotiation situation, molten iron trend, and steel mill restocking rhythm [3] Coke and Coking Coal - The supply and demand of coke have weakened. After three rounds of spot price cuts, the basis has weakened, and the rebound driven by expectations is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to take profit on the long positions of the coke 2605 contract and switch to short - selling on rallies. For coking coal, the rebound expectation has been overdrawn in advance, and it is also recommended to take profit on long positions and switch to short - selling on rallies [5] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - For ferrosilicon, although the supply - demand contradiction needs to be alleviated, the production cut expectation has been priced in, and the improvement expectation on the demand side in the follow - up is insufficient. The price rebound lacks sustainability. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 5500 - 5700 in the short term. For ferromanganese, the current supply - demand has been priced in, and there is no clear trend - based rebound signal. It is recommended to consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the spot cost in Ningxia and mainly conduct short - term operations [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3310, 3170, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and 0 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3280, 3180, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 10, 0, and 0 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2950 yuan/ton with no change, and the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton with no change. The profits of East China and North China hot - rolled coils are - 3 and - 99 yuan/ton respectively, both decreasing by 3 yuan/ton [1] Supply - The daily average molten iron output is 226.6 tons with no change. The output of five major steel products is 796.8 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons or - 0.1%. Rebar output is 184.4 tons, an increase of 2.7 tons or 1.5% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1258.0 tons, a decrease of 36.8 tons or - 2.8%. Rebar inventory is 452.5 tons, a decrease of 18.3 tons or - 4.0% [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume is 8.3 tons, a decrease of 1.3 tons or - 13.9%. The apparent consumption of five major steel products is 835.3 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons or - 0.2% [1] Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc. have increased slightly, with increases of 0.1% - 0.3%. The 05 - contract basis of various iron ore powders has also increased, with increases of 3.0% - 5.0% [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2646.7 tons, a decrease of 76.7 tons or - 2.8%. The global shipment volume (weekly) is 3464.5 tons, a decrease of 128.0 tons or - 3.6% [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 226.6 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons or - 1.2%. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume (weekly) is 313.5 tons, a decrease of 5.7 tons or - 1.8% [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) is 15682.46 tons, an increase of 169.8 tons or 1.1%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8724.0 tons, a decrease of 110.3 tons or - 1.2% [3] Coke Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remain unchanged. The coke 01 contract price is 1589 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan or - 0.8%, and the 05 contract price is 1739 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan or - 0.4% [5] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 62.7 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or - 0.5%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.8 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons or 0.7% [5] Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 226.6 tons, with no change [5] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory is 912.6 tons, an increase of 12.2 tons or 1.4%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 92.2 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons or 1.3% [5] Coking Coal Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remains unchanged, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) is 1165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan or - 0.5%. The coking coal 01 contract price is 1047 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan or - 0.7%, and the 05 contract price is 1132 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan or - 0.74% [5] Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines is 853.4 tons, a decrease of 2.7 tons or - 0.3%, and the clean coal output is 438.2 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons or - 0.1% [5] Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines is 126.5 tons, an increase of 6.6 tons or 5.2%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants is 1036.3 tons, an increase of 3.4 tons or 0.3% [5] Ferrosilicon Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract is 5692.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 36.0 yuan. The spot prices of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, etc. have different changes, with the Inner Mongolia price remaining unchanged and the Qinghai price increasing by 1.0% [6] Cost and Profit - The production cost of Inner Mongolia is 5772.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.7 yuan or - 0.1%. The production profit of Inner Mongolia is - 202.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.2% [6] Supply - The ferrosilicon production (weekly) is 100 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons or - 1.3%. The operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises (weekly) is 29.5%, a decrease of 0.8% or - 2.6% [6] Demand - The ferrosilicon demand (weekly) is 18 tons, with no change. The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output (weekly) is 226.6 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons or - 1.2% [6] Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises (weekly) is 6.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or - 2.4% [6] Ferromanganese Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract is 5846.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.0 yuan or 0.24%. The spot prices of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, etc. remain unchanged [6] Cost and Profit - The production cost of Inner Mongolia is 5492.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48.0 yuan or - 0.9%. The production profit of Inner Mongolia has a certain change [6] Supply - The ferromanganese production (weekly) is 193 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons or 2.3% [6] Demand - The ferromanganese demand (calculated by Steel Union) is 113 tons, an increase of 0.0 tons or 0.24% [6] Inventory Changes - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises (weekly) is 38.6 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 0.4% [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Overseas inventory is structurally imbalanced, and terminal demand is significantly suppressed. The copper price continued to rise yesterday, with short - term price fluctuations intensifying. - The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory structural imbalances and Fed's actions. Although the 2026 long - term TC is 0, smelters can maintain cash - flow profit if by - product profits are high enough. - SMM expects China's electrolytic copper production to rise in December, with sufficient spot supply. High prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to a large discount in spot this week, inventory accumulation, and weakened downstream开工率 and order release. - The upward drivers are further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; the downward driver is weak demand. The short - term price is volatile, and the main contract should focus on the 95,500 support level [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures maintained a low - level oscillation. The fundamental pattern of oversupply has not improved. The supply is rigid, and the whole - industry chain inventory has reached a new high, forming a self - strengthening mechanism. The cost support level is moving down. Alumina prices are expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. - Electrolytic aluminum futures maintained a high - level oscillation. The macro environment is favorable, but the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market showed a strong - oscillation trend. The core contradiction is the game between strong cost support and weakening demand. - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the procurement cost is high. The high aluminum price has suppressed the purchasing willingness of downstream die - casting enterprises. - The social inventory has been decreasing slightly for several weeks. The ADC12 price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and the terminal demand is weak. The zinc price is oscillating weakly. - Domestic zinc ore production has decreased in November, and the import window has opened. The smelter has reduced production due to profit pressure. - The downstream processing industry's开工率 is stable. The social inventory has been decreasing, but the overall demand is general at the end of the year. The LME inventory has increased significantly, and the squeeze - out risk has eased. The main contract should focus on the 22,850 - 22,950 support level [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, and the export volume of Indonesia has increased significantly in November. - The tin - soldering enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more restricted. - The supply in Myanmar and Indonesia shows improvement signs. The previous long positions should be gradually closed, and subsequent macro and supply - side recovery should be monitored [11]. Nickel - The nickel futures price fell slightly. The market is trading around the expectation of tightened nickel ore supply. - The domestic spot nickel price has decreased, and the spot trading is average. The supply of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel is still tight. - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has decreased, and the Indonesian ore production target in 2026 has been significantly reduced. The price of nickel iron has strong bottom support. - The terminal demand is weak, and the overseas inventory accumulation has slowed down, while the domestic social inventory pressure has increased. The short - term price is expected to oscillate and recover, with the main contract reference range of 123,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel futures price oscillated narrowly. The spot market's inquiry atmosphere has cooled, and the trading volume is average. - The Fed has cut interest rates, and the domestic central bank has injected liquidity. The market expects tightened nickel ore supply. - The supply is at a relatively high level, but some enterprises may conduct annual maintenance at the end of the year. The demand is in the off - season, and the social inventory is decreasing but still at a high level. - The short - term market sentiment has improved, but the supply - demand game continues. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - [missing in the report] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated widely. The main contract LC2605 rose 0.44% to 123,520. - The recent news is abundant. Some production lines of Hunan Yueneng will be under maintenance in January, and Wanrun New Energy will reduce production for maintenance. - The current fundamentals show both supply and demand growth. The production is expected to increase in December, and the demand maintains certain resilience. The inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term price is supported by the tight - balance fundamentals, but there is limited new driving force [16]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon spot price stabilized, and the futures price oscillated and recovered after a low opening. - The supply and demand are both decreasing steadily. The expectation of industrial silicon production reduction is rising. Multiple enterprises plan to shut down furnaces for maintenance. - The demand from polysilicon is expected to decrease significantly in January. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price stabilized, and the futures price rose significantly. - The exchange has introduced cooling measures. Upstream enterprises hope to drive up the whole - industry chain price, and downstream enterprises have raised their quotes, but profits are still under pressure. - The demand in the first quarter has no bright spots. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the futures price is still at a large premium to the spot. Attention should be paid to production - reduction implementation and price - fall pressure [19]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 94,760 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (0.07%); the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was - 330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 21,980 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton ( - 0.23%); the SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 170 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 was at 21,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 23,080 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton ( - 0.77%); the premium was 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin was at 332,750 yuan/ton, down 3,600 yuan/ton ( - 1.07%); the LME 0 - 3 premium was 130 US dollars/ton, up 65 US dollars/ton (100%) [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 127,400 yuan/ton, down 2,800 yuan/ton ( - 2.15%); the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 7,250 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton (7.41%) [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) was at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton ( - 0.38%) [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan/ton (3.35%) [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Huale Tongyang SI5530 industrial silicon was at 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [18]. - **Polysilicon**: N - type polycrystalline silicon (average price) was at 52,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In November, electrolytic copper production was 110.31 million tons, up 1.15 million tons (1.05%); imports were 27.11 million tons, down 1.10 million tons ( - 3.90%) [1]. - **Aluminum**: In November, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, down 34.6 million tons ( - 4.44%); domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 363.66 million tons, down 10.6 million tons ( - 2.82%) [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, up 3.7 million tons (5.74%); the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 30.27 million tons, up 1.7 million tons (5.84%) [5]. - **Zinc**: In November, refined zinc production was 59.52 million tons, down 2.20 million tons ( - 3.56%); imports were 1.82 million tons, down 0.06 million tons ( - 3.22%) [9]. - **Tin**: In October, tin ore imports were 11,632 tons, up 2,918 tons (33.49%); SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, up 5,580 tons (53.09%) [11]. - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production in [month not clear] was 33,342 tons, down 3,453 tons ( - 9.38%); imports were 9,741 tons, down 18,626 tons ( - 65.66%) [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) in [month not clear] was 178.70 million tons, down 1.30 million tons ( - 0.72%); Indonesia's was 42.35 million tons, up 0.15 million tons (0.36%) [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, lithium carbonate production was 95,350 tons, up 3,090 tons (3.35%); demand was 133,451 tons, up 6,490 tons (5.11%) [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: National industrial silicon production in [month not clear] was 40.17 million tons, down 5.05 million tons ( - 11.17%); Xinjiang's was 23.76 million tons, up 0.20 million tons (0.83%) [18]. - **Polysilicon**: In [month not clear], polysilicon production was 11.46 million tons, down 1.94 million tons ( - 14.48%); imports were 0.11 million tons, down 0.04 million tons ( - 27.05%) [19].

| 材产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月26日 | | | | | | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | | 品种 | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | | 3310 | 3320 | -10 | 203 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | | 3170 | 3170 | 0 | 63 | | | 3260 | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | | 3260 | 0 | 153 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | | 3127 | 3136 | -d | 183 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | | 3172 | 3173 | -1 | 138 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | | 3107 | 3121 | -14 | 203 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | | 3280 | 3270 | 10 | -2 | 元/口屯 | | 热卷现货(华北) | | 3180 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The log futures market showed oscillatory movements. The main contract LG2603 closed at 778 yuan per cubic meter, up 2 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of the main benchmark delivery product increased by 10 yuan per cubic meter. The latest round of FOB quotes was 112 US dollars per JAS cubic meter. The inventory decreased significantly on a weekly basis, and the demand declined slightly. With the approaching New Zealand holidays, there is an expectation of reduced shipments in the future. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate within a range [2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Log 2601: Price on December 25th was 765.5, down 1.0 from December 24th, with a decline of -0.13% [2]. - Log 2603: Price on December 25th was 778.0, up 2.0 from December 24th, with an increase of 0.26% [2]. - Log 2605: Price on December 25th was 785.5, up 1.5 from December 24th, with an increase of 0.19% [2]. - Some spot prices remained unchanged, while the price of 4A medium radiata pine in Taicang Port increased by 10 yuan to 730 yuan, with a rise of 1.39% [2]. Import Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on December 25th was 6.997, down 0.01 from December 24th, with a decline of 0% [2]. - The import theoretical cost on December 25th was 771.33 yuan, down 1.40 from December 24th, with a decline of 0% [2]. Supply - The port throughput in November was 189.2 million cubic meters, down 12.1 million cubic meters from October, with a decline of -6.01% [2]. - The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 49, down 5 from the previous period, with a decline of -9.26% [2]. Inventory - As of December 19th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 260 million cubic meters, down 12 million cubic meters from the previous week, a decline of -4.41% [2][3]. Demand - As of December 19th, the average daily log outbound volume was 6.32 million cubic meters, down 0.14 million cubic meters from the previous week, a decline of -2% [2][3]. Forecast of Arrival - From December 22nd - 28th, 2025, the number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 9, 6 less than the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 40%. The total arrival volume was about 30.9 million cubic meters, 21.5 million cubic meters less than the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 41% [3].

Report Overview - The report is a daily spread report for all varieties dated December 26, 2025, with investment consulting business qualification (Certificate of Approval [2011] No. 1292) [3] Commodity Analysis Black Series - **Silicon Iron**: The price of 72 silicon iron qualified blocks in Inner Mongolia - Tianjin warehouse receipts is 5695, down 64, with a change of -1.12%, and the historical quantile is 49.30% [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: The price of 6517 silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia - Hubei warehouse receipts is 5840, with a change of -0.10% [1] - **Rebar**: The price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3310, up 183 from 3127, with a change of 5.89%, and the historical quantile is 69.40% [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price of Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai is 3280 [1] - **Iron Ore**: The converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port is 846, down 16, with a change of -0.90%, and the historical quantile is 52.50% [1] - **Coke**: The converted price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke A13, S0.7, CSR60, MT7 at Rizhao Port is 1723, down 16 from 1739, with a change of -0.90%, and the historical quantile is 56.15% [1] - **Coking Coal**: The converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Mongolian No. 5) at Shaheyi is 1156, up 32, with a change of 2.89%, and the historical quantile is 34.50% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 94760, the futures price is 96210, the basis is - 1450, the basis rate is 0.62%, and the historical quantile is - 1.5% [1] - **Aluminum**: The spot price of SMM A00 aluminum is 21980, the futures price is 22275, the basis is - 295, the basis rate is 1.87%, and the historical quantile is - 1.3% [1] - **Alumina**: The spot price of SMM heavy alumina index is 2646, the futures price is 2729, the basis is - 83, the basis rate is 3.12%, and the historical quantile is 47.79% [1] - **Zinc**: The spot price of SMM 1 zinc ingot is 23010, the futures price is 23065, the basis is - 55, the basis rate is - 0.24%, and the historical quantile is 51.45% [1] - **Tin**: The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 332750, the futures price is 335880, the basis is - 3130, the basis rate is 7.08%, and the historical quantile is - 0.93% [1] - **Nickel**: The spot price of SMM 1 imported nickel is 125410, the futures price is 124150, the basis is 1260, the basis rate is 1.00%, and the historical quantile is 10.41% [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of 304/2B:2*1240*C in Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) is 13170, the futures price is 12990, the basis is 180, the basis rate is 1.39%, and the historical quantile is 31.75% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 104900, the futures price is 123520, the basis is - 18620, the basis rate is - 15.07%, and the historical quantile is 0.88% [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of SMM un - fluxed 215530 is 8832, the futures price is 9250, the basis is - 418, the basis rate is 4.70%, and the historical quantile is 24.95% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold**: The spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold (AU (T + D)) is 1003.0, the futures price is 1008.8, the basis is - 5.8, the basis rate is - 0.57%, and the historical quantile is 1.20% [1] - **Silver**: The spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver (AG (T + D)) is 17414.0, the futures price is 17397.0, the basis is 17.0, the basis rate is 0.10%, and the historical quantile is 96.40% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of ordinary protein soybean meal at the Jiangsu Zhangjiagang factory is 3020, the futures price is 2760.0, the basis is 260.0, the basis rate is 9.42%, and the historical quantile is 66.30% [1] - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil at the Jiangsu Zhangjiagang factory is 8200, the futures price is 7824.0, the basis is 376.0, the basis rate is 4.81%, and the historical quantile is 67.00% [1] - **Palm Oil**: The delivery price of palm oil at Huangpu Port is 8520, the futures price is 8542.0, the basis is - 22.0, the basis rate is - 0.26%, and the historical quantile is 19.70% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of ordinary rapeseed meal at the Guangdong Zhanjiang factory is 2520, the futures price is 2352.0, the basis is 168.0, the basis rate is 7.14%, and the historical quantile is 79.60% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of grade - four rapeseed oil at the Jiangsu Nantong factory is 9640, the futures price is 8981.0, the basis is 659.0, the basis rate is 7.34%, and the historical quantile is 93.60% [1] - **Corn**: The flat - hatch price of corn at Xizhou Port is 2280, the futures price is 2189.0, the basis is 91.0, the basis rate is 4.16%, and the historical quantile is 84.80% [1] - **Corn Starch**: The spot price of corn starch at the Jilin Changchun factory is 2620, the futures price is 2484.0, the basis is 136.0, the basis rate is 5.48%, and the historical quantile is 70.60% [1] - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs (external ternary) at the Henan factory exit is 11800, the futures price is 11460.0, the basis is 340.0, the basis rate is 2.97%, and the historical quantile is 56.30% [1] - **Eggs**: The average price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei is 2946.0, the futures price is 2820, the basis is 126.0, the basis rate is 4.42%, and the historical quantile is 27.70% [1] - **Cotton**: The arrival price of cotton (3128B) in Xinjiang is 15086, the futures price is 14255.0, the basis is 831.0, the basis rate is 5.83%, and the historical quantile is 35.90% [1] - **Sugar**: The spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station is 5420, the futures price is 5269.0, the basis is 151.0, the basis rate is 2.87%, and the historical quantile is 25.20% [1] - **Apples**: The theoretical delivery price of apples is 9208.0, the futures price is 9000, the basis is 208.0, the basis rate is - 2.26%, and the historical quantile is 14.80% [1] - **Red Dates**: The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 8905.0, the futures price is 8400, the basis is - 505.0, the basis rate is - 5.67%, and the historical quantile is 68.90% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Para - xylene**: The spot price of para - xylene at the main Chinese ports (CFR, converted to RMB) is 7276.0, the futures price is 7358.0, the basis is - 82.0, the basis rate is - 1.11%, and the historical quantile is 12.80% [1] - **PTA**: The market price (middle price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in East China is 5152.0, the futures price is 5070.0, the basis is 82.0, the basis rate is - 1.59%, and the historical quantile is 22.70% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market price (middle price) of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China is 3818.0, the futures price is 3650.0, the basis is 168.0, the basis rate is - 4.40%, and the historical quantile is 4.20% [1] - **Short Fibre**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyester short fibre (1.4D*38mm (direct - spun)) in the East China market is 6540.0, the futures price is 6490.0, the basis is 50.0, the basis rate is - 0.75%, and the historical quantile is 28.20% [1] - **Styrene**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China is 6710.0, the futures price is 6638.0, the basis is 72.0, the basis rate is 1.08%, and the historical quantile is 45.20% [1] - **Methanol**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, China is 2162.0, the futures price is 2145.0, the basis is 17.0, the basis rate is - 0.70%, and the historical quantile is 26.30% [1] - **Urea**: The market price (mainstream price) of small - particle urea in Shandong is 1740.0, the futures price is 1730.0, the basis is 10.0, the basis rate is - 0.57%, and the historical quantile is 13.00% [1] - **LLDPE**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (middle price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film - grade) in Shandong is 6390.0, the futures price is 6325.0, the basis is 65.0, the basis rate is - 1.0%, and the historical quantile is 7.10% [1] - **PP**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (middle price) of polypropylene PP (wire - drawing grade, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang is 6266.0, the futures price is 6250.0, the basis is 16.0, the basis rate is - 0.26%, and the historical quantile is 20.80% [1] - **PVC**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market, China is 4757.0, the futures price is 4480.0, the basis is 277.0, the basis rate is - 5.82%, and the historical quantile is 9.80% [1] - **Caustic Soda**: The market price (mainstream price) of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in the Shandong market (converted to 100%) is 2234.4, the futures price is 2233.0, the basis is 1.4, the basis rate is 0.06%, and the historical quantile is 43.10% [1] - **LPG**: The market price of liquefied petroleum gas in the Guangzhou area is 4528.0, the futures price is 4076.0, the basis is 452.0, the basis rate is 11.09%, and the historical quantile is 64.10% [1] - **Asphalt**: The market price (mainstream price) of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong is 2995.0, the futures price is 2920.0, the basis is 75.0, the basis rate is - 2.50%, and the historical quantile is 35.40% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The distribution price of cis - butadiene rubber (Daqing, BR9000) of PetroChina East China is 11285.0, the futures price is 11100.0, the basis is 185.0, the basis rate is - 1.64%, and the historical quantile is 12.60% [1] - **Float Glass**: The market price of 5mm float glass in the Shahe Great Wall Glass (daily) is 1047.0, the futures price is 924.0, the basis is 123.0, the basis rate is - 13.31%, and the historical quantile is 21.21% [1] - **Soda Ash**: The market price of soda ash in Chongqing (daily) is 1184.0, the futures price is 1135.0, the basis is 49.0, the basis rate is - 4.32%, and the historical quantile is 24.78% [1] - **Natural Rubber**: The market price of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned whole - latex) in Shanghai is 15730.0, the futures price is 15200.0, the basis is 530.0, the basis rate is - 3.49%, and the historical quantile is 63.06% [1] Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures** - **IF2603.CFF**: The spot price is 4642.5, the futures price is 4610.6, the basis is - 31.9, the basis rate is - 0.69%, and the historical quantile is 11.50% [1] - **IH2603.CFE**: The spot price is 3032.8, the futures price is 3034.0, the basis is - 1.2, the basis rate is 0.04%, and the historical quantile is 63.30% [1] - **IC2603.CFE**: The spot price is 7410.7, the futures price is 7320.6, the basis is - 90.1, the basis rate is - 1.21%, and the historical quantile is 4.80% [1] - **IM2603.CFE**: The spot price is 7579.4, the futures price is 7419.0, the basis is - 160.4, the basis rate is - 2.16%, and the historical quantile is 7.40% [1] - **Treasury Bond

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - From December 22 - 28, 2025, 9 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 6 fewer than last week, a 40% week - on - week decrease; the arrival volume is about 30.9 million cubic meters, 21.5 million cubic meters less than last week, a 41% week - on - week decrease [3] - Recently, the log futures price has recovered to near the warehouse receipt cost. The latest data shows a significant inventory reduction. With the approaching New Zealand holidays, there is an expectation of reduced shipments. Demand remains stable but weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On December 25, the prices of log futures contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 were 765.5, 778.0, and 785.5 respectively, with changes of - 1.0, + 2.0, and + 1.5 compared to December 24, and the price changes were - 0.13%, 0.26%, and 0.19% respectively [2] - The prices of most spot log varieties remained unchanged on December 25, except for the 4A medium - sized radiata pine in Taicang Port, which increased by 10 yuan to 730 yuan, with a 1.39% increase [2] - The external market quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged on December 26 compared to December 19 [2] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On December 25, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.997 yuan, down 0.01 yuan from December 24, and the import theoretical cost was 771.33 yuan, down 1.40 yuan from December 24 [2] Supply: Monthly - In November, the port freight volume was 189.2 million cubic meters, a 6.01% decrease from October; the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 49, a 9.26% decrease from the previous period [2] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of December 19, the log inventory in Chinese ports was 260 million cubic meters, a 4.41% decrease from December 12; the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [2][3] Demand: Daily Average Outbound Volume (Weekly) - As of December 19, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China was 6.32 million cubic meters, a 2% decrease from December 12; the daily average outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 3%, while that in Jiangsu increased by 1% [3]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple factors lead to early capital allocation, and the gold price has medium - to - long - term upward potential. In the context of continuous upward revisions of precious metal price forecasts by global mainstream institutions, some investors choose to pre - allocate precious metals, reflected in the continuous increase in ETF holdings and rising derivative positions. Without clear negative factors, the short - term market will remain in a relatively strong oscillation. Unilateral long positions should follow the idea of buying on dips [1]. - In the short term, as the COMEX silver approaches the last trading day, the physical delivery demand decreases, weakening its driving force on the market. Coupled with the increase in domestic inventories, it may ease the bullish sentiment. During the sharp rise of silver, attention should be paid to changes in the number of open interest contracts and warehouse receipt inventories, as well as the implementation of regulatory risk - control measures to prevent the risk of speculative long positions taking profits at high levels. However, high volatility continues to provide upward momentum to the price. The strategy suggests continuing to hold long positions, paying attention to the restoration of the domestic premium, and reducing positions or locking positions on rallies before the Spring Festival [1]. - Platinum and palladium are strong in terms of macro and supply - demand fundamentals, and their prices are still undervalued compared to gold. Capital promotes value re - evaluation, and they are expected to continue to oscillate upward in the medium to long term. In the short term, in the domestic market, since the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium futures are in the early stage of listing, the overall position liquidity needs to be improved, and the domestic market shows a premium compared to the overseas market. With strengthened regulatory risk - control measures, platinum and palladium still face short - term correction risks. Palladium may continue to correct under weak fundamentals, while platinum is relatively strong. One can buy the platinum - palladium ratio on dips [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1008.76 yuan/gram on December 25, down 5.92 yuan or 0.58% from the previous day [1]. - AG2602 contract closed at 17397 yuan/ten grams on December 25, down 212 yuan or 1.20% from the previous day [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 686.05 yuan/gram on December 25, up 29.30 yuan or 4.46% from the previous day [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 529.05 yuan/gram on December 25, down 49.40 yuan or 8.54% from the previous day [1]. Overseas Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold's main contract closed at 4505.40 on December 24, down 9.60 or 0.21% from the previous day [1]. - COMEX silver's main contract closed at 71.88 on December 24, up 0.27 or 0.37% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX platinum's main contract closed at 2272.90 dollars/ounce on December 24, down 47.20 or - 2.03% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX palladium's main contract closed at 1821.00 on December 24, down 143.00 or 7.28% from the previous day [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 4479.39 on December 25, down 5.49 or 0.12% from the previous day [1]. - London silver was at 71.81 on December 25, up 0.40 or 0.56% from the previous day [1]. - Spot palladium remained unchanged at 2208.00 on December 25 compared to the previous day [1]. - Spot palladium remained unchanged at 1837.00 on December 25 compared to the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold TD was at 1003.01 yuan/gram on December 25, down 4.21 yuan or - 0.42% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver TD was at 17414 yuan/kilogram on December 25, down 300 yuan or - 1.69% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 591 yuan/gram on December 25, down 16 yuan or - 2.59% from the previous day [1]. Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold's main contract was - 5.75, up 1.71 from the previous day, with a one - year historical quantile of 6.80% [1]. - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver's main contract was 17, down 88 from the previous day, with a one - year historical quantile of 95.90% [1]. - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 26.01, up 4.11 from the previous day, with a one - year historical quantile of 30.20% [1]. - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.06, up 0.14 from the previous day, with a one - year historical quantile of 70.10% [1]. Price Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold to silver was 62.68, down 0.37 or - 0.58% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold to silver was 57.98, up 0.36 or 0.63% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of NYMEX palladium to palladium was 1.25, up 0.07 or 5.66% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum to palladium was 1.30, up 0.16 or 14.21% from the previous day [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.15%, down 0.03 or - 0.7% from the previous day [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, down 0.01 or - 0.3% from the previous day [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.91%, down 0.03 or - 1.5% from the previous day [1]. - The US dollar index was 97.91, down 0.05 or - 0.05% from the previous day [1]. - The on - shore RMB exchange rate was 7.0010, down 0.0066 or - 0.09% from the previous day [1]. Inventories and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 93,711 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 852,417 kilograms, down 29,532 kilograms or - 3.35% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 36,159,361 ounces, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 451,352,686 ounces, up 472,620 ounces or 0.10% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19,361,515 ounces, up 39,612 ounces or 0.21% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 126,355,549 ounces, down 858,733 ounces or - 0.68% from the previous day [1]. - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1,068 tons, up 3.71 tons or 0.35% from the previous day [1]. - The SLV silver ETF position was 16,447 tons, down 56.40 tons or - 0.34% from the previous day [1].