数据来源: Wind、Mysteel、广友期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。历史分位数:根据各品种近五年的基差水平排序 | 硅铁(SF509) | 5478 | 5270 | 208 | 3.95% | 71.90% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 5770 | 硅罐(SM509) | 146 | 50.00% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 5624 | 2.60% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 117 | 3120 | 3003 | HRB40020mm:上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | 3.90% | 53.90% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 64 | 热卷 (HC2510) | 3200 | 3136 | 2.04% | 44.20% | | | | | | 751 | 43 | 35.60% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF) ...

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM 数据来源：Wind 广发期货研究所整理 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 2025 年 7 月 2 日星期三广 发期货早评 | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2509 | 总持仓下降 | 前二十席位减仓为主 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2509 | 总持仓下降 | 中信多空头减仓近 1000 手 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2507 | 总持仓变化不大 | 国君多空头减仓近千手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2509 | 总持仓上升 | 中信多空头大幅加仓 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 2025 年 7 月 2 日星期三 证监许可【2011】1292 号 联系信息： 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020-88818051 邮箱：yeq ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different performances across various sectors. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures show certain resilience, while treasury bond futures are affected by the money - market conditions. Precious metals continue to rebound due to international trade and economic data. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends, and the investment strategies vary accordingly [2][6][8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed a sector rotation. The red - chip sector rebounded, while the TMT sector pulled back. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spread widened. The macro situation is improving, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices. They can lightly sell MO options with an execution price of 5900 in August - September to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the cross - month period, the money - market rate dropped significantly, and treasury bond futures generally rebounded. However, they lack the momentum to break through the previous high. The focus is on whether the money - market rate can further decline, the subsequent fundamental situation, and the central bank's bond trading announcements. Short - term unilateral strategies suggest appropriate allocation of long positions on dips and taking profits near the previous high [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold continues its upward trend due to the US tariff threat and the decline of the US dollar index. The US economic data shows the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing industry, and the labor supply is tightening. The euro - zone inflation rate is stable. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but there are short - term uncertainties. Silver is affected by gold and has a short - term range - bound trend [8][9][12]. Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies are provided, and the container shipping index shows different trends in the European and US routes. The futures market rose yesterday, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1800 - 2000 points. The actual price in August is not likely to drop significantly, and the subsequent price center will move up [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices have suppressed downstream purchases. The supply of copper concentrate is limited, and the demand has some resilience, but there are also potential pressures. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 79000 - 81000 [15][17][19]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in a state of slight surplus, and the price is expected to be weak in the medium term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 2750 - 3100, and investors can consider short - selling on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The macro environment and low inventory support the price, but the consumption off - season restricts its upward space. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20000 - 20800 [22][23][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market of aluminum alloy shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 19200 - 20000 [24][25][26]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds due to the weakening of the US dollar, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low. The supply of zinc ore is loose, the demand is weakening, and the inventory provides some support. The long - term strategy is to short on rallies, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21500 - 22500 [27][28][30]. - **Tin**: The tin price is in a high - level range - bound state. The supply is still tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term strategy is to be bullish on dips and short on rallies based on inventory and import data [30][31][33]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is stable but with limited growth. The inventory still exerts pressure on the price. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 116000 - 124000 [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12300 - 13000 [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures show a wide - range oscillation. The supply is sufficient, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 58000 - 64000 [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price of steel is slightly stable due to the rumor of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply is at a high level but shows a slight decline, and the demand is in the off - season with a downward trend. The price of steel is affected by cost and demand expectations. Short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The 09 contract of iron ore may turn weak. The global shipment volume has decreased, the demand is affected by the off - season and the production - restriction policy in Tangshan. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the range of 690 - 720 [45][46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal is strong, and the futures price is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coking coal [48][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price of coke is close to the bottom. The fourth - round price cut has been implemented, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand will slightly decline. The inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coke [52][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The US soybean market is in a bottom - grinding state, and the support at the bottom is strengthening. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the market is waiting for the determination of the demand trend. Short - term bottom - grinding and long - position opportunities on dips can be focused on [56][57][59]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly, but the futures price is under pressure due to profit - taking. The secondary fattening inventory is increasing, and the market sentiment is expected to be strong in the short term, but the 09 contract is under pressure [60][61][62]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is stable, and the import auction has a premium, which supports the futures price. The supply is tight in the long term, and the demand is gradually increasing. The overall trend is upward, but the pace is slow [63][64].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | 厂 GF FUTUR | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王泽辉 | Z0019938 | 2025年7月2日 | | | | | | | | | | | 原 | 7月1日 | 6月30日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | | | | | | | | | 8240 | 8240 | 0.00% | 0 | 江苏一级 | 现价 | Y2509 | -12 | 7972 | 7984 | -0.15% | 期价 | | 268 | 基差 | Y2509 | 256 | 12 | 4.69% | 现货墓差报价 | 09+250 | 09+250 | 江苏6月 | O | - | | 仓单 | 20582 | 20582 | 0 | 0.00% | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 6月30日 | 7月1日 | 涨跌幅 | 张跃 | 8430 | 8400 | 0.36% | 广东24 ...

1. General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, meals, corn, and hogs, dated July 1, 2025 [1][4][6][7][11][13][16] 2. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 3. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may face downward pressure to seek support around 3,800 ringgit; Dalian palm oil futures may seek support at the annual line of 8,200 yuan [2] - Soybean oil: Weak crude oil and US soybean's good growing conditions affect CBOT soybean and soybean oil; domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to increase, and the spot basis is under pressure [2] Sugar - Global sugar supply is becoming looser, capping the upside of raw sugar prices; domestic sugar market may maintain a bullish sentiment in the short - term but turn bearish after the rebound due to expected import increase [5] Cotton - The tight supply of old - crop cotton persists in the short - term, but the long - term supply is sufficient; downstream demand is weak, so cotton prices are likely to range - bound [6] Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, demand is average, and prices may remain stable first, decline slightly in the short - term, and then stabilize [8] Meals - US soybean planting area was slightly lowered, with a neutral impact; Brazilian soybean market is boosted; domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is stable. Pay attention to demand sustainability and look for long opportunities on dips [11] Corn - Corn supply is tight, and prices are rising steadily in the spot market. Although there are some factors limiting the increase, the long - term supply - demand gap supports price increases. Pay attention to the corn auction and wheat market [13][15] Hogs - The spot price of hogs is still in a range - bound pattern. The market sentiment may be bullish in the short - term, but there is a risk of price decline for the 09 contract if the inventory moves backward [16][17] 4. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8,240 yuan, down 0.60% from the previous value; the futures price of Y2509 is 7,984 yuan, down 0.22%; the basis is 256 yuan, down 11.11%; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 9.00% [2] - **Palm oil**: The current price in Guangdong is 8,400 yuan, down 1.18%; the futures price of P2509 is 8,330 yuan, down 0.55%; the basis is 70 yuan, down 43.55%; the import profit in Guangzhou Port in September decreased by 4.79% [2] - **Rapeseed oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8,080 yuan, down 0.73%; the futures price of 01509 is 9,415 yuan, down 0.54%; the basis is 165 yuan, down 10.33% [2] Sugar - **Futures market**: The price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.50%, and sugar 2509 increased by 0.26%; ICE raw sugar decreased by 3.00%; the 1 - 9 spread increased by 6.77% [5] - **Spot market**: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.16%, and in Kunming increased by 0.08%; the basis in Nanning decreased by 8.39%, and in Kunming decreased by 10.20% [5] - **Industry situation**: National sugar production increased by 12.03%, sales increased by 23.07%, and the inventory decreased by 9.56% [5] Cotton - **Futures market**: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 0.15%, and cotton 2601 decreased by 0.04%; ICE US cotton decreased by 1.85%; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 300.00% [6] - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.43%, and CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.30% [6] - **Industry situation**: Industrial inventory decreased by 1.2%, imports decreased by 33.3%, and textile exports showed mixed performance [6] Eggs - **Futures market**: The price of the egg 09 contract increased by 0.44%, and the 07 contract increased by 0.64%; the basis decreased by 20.78%, and the 9 - 7 spread decreased by 0.23% [7] - **Spot market**: The egg price in the production area decreased by 4.90% [7] - **Related indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicks remained unchanged, the price of culled hens increased by 4.05%, and the egg - feed ratio decreased by 3.86% [7] Meals - **Soybean meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2,840 yuan, up 0.71%; the futures price of M2509 is 2,961 yuan, up 0.51%; the basis is - 121 yuan, up 3.97%; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 13.3% [11] - **Rapeseed meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2,470 yuan, up 1.65%; the futures price of RM2509 is 2,572 yuan, up 0.51%; the basis is - 102 yuan, up 20.93%; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 3.17% [11] - **Soybean**: The current price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main contract increased by 0.02%; the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the futures price of the main contract increased by 0.22% [11] Corn - **Corn**: The price of the 2509 contract is 2,378 yuan, down 0.25%; the basis is 2 yuan, up 150.00%; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 8.11%; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.17% [13] - **Corn starch**: The price of the 2509 contract is 2,733 yuan, down 0.36%; the basis is - 13 yuan, up 43.48%; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 11.76%; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 4.14% [13] Hogs - **Futures market**: The price of the 2507 contract increased by 1.65%, and the 2509 contract decreased by 0.96%; the 7 - 9 spread decreased by 94.74%; the main - contract position increased by 1.78% [16] - **Spot market**: The prices in various regions generally increased, with the largest increase of 600 yuan in Guangdong [16] - **Related indicators**: The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.27%; the self - breeding profit increased by 159.02%, and the purchased - piglet profit increased by 29.49%; the fertile sow inventory increased by 0.10% [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rebound due to interest - rate cut expectations and the CL spread. The shortage trend of electrolytic copper is difficult to reverse before the "232" investigation ends, and there is still support at the bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains slightly oversupplied in the short term, and the future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level in the short term [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly [5]. Zinc - Short - term zinc prices may rebound, but the zinc fundamentals have not improved fundamentally. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling strategy is recommended [8]. Nickel - The nickel market has improved macro - sentiment, but the cost support of refined nickel has loosened. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market sentiment has improved, but the fundamentals remain weak. In the short term, the market is expected to operate weakly [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,990 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 253,100 tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium was 70 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the alumina output was 7.2721 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.729 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot output was 606,000 tons, down 0.66% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 261,000 tons, down 0.38% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,490 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 1,306 yuan/ton, up 1.22 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In May, the refined zinc output was 549,400 tons, down 1.08% month - on - month; the refined zinc import volume was 28,200 tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122,250 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,600 yuan/ton, down 7.14% from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel output in May was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume was 8,832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12,650 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The futures - spot spread was 210 yuan/ton, down 16.00% from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel output (43 enterprises) in April was 1.7912 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. The stainless - steel import volume was 125,100 tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 61,300 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 59,700 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, the lithium carbonate output was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month; the lithium carbonate demand was 93,960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports [1][3][5] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - In the first half of the year, steel supply and demand were both strong, with continuous inventory reduction, but prices were dragged down by coking coal costs and continued to fall. Currently, prices show signs of stabilizing and rebounding. Demand has weakened slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the high growth of steel exports. In June, supply and demand were close to balance, and inventory stopped falling and remained flat. From July to August, it is the off - season for demand. In the second half of the year, the main interference factor for demand is still China - US tariffs, and the overall demand expectation remains weak. In the medium term, steel maintains a pattern of weak cost support and poor demand expectations. Due to the resumption of production in coking coal producing areas, prices have weakened again. It is recommended to try shorting at the current position or selling out - of - the - money call options [1][3] Coke Industry - As of the previous day's close, coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, while spot prices remained stable. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented on June 23, with a cumulative reduction of 170/190 yuan/ton, and a phased bottom is gradually emerging, and market expectations are starting to improve. On the supply side, due to environmental inspections and maintenance, supply has tightened marginally, and independent coking plant开工 has declined. On the demand side, in June, molten iron production remained above 240,000 tons per day, with rigid demand support, but blast furnace开工 decreased slightly, and molten iron production continued to decline after reaching its peak. In terms of inventory, coking plant inventories decreased slightly, port inventories continued to decline, and steel mill inventories decreased. The overall inventory is at a medium level. For strategies, the spot fundamentals are still relatively loose, and the premium of coke futures over spot provides hedging space. It is recommended to hedge the Coke 2509 contract at high prices, stay on the sidelines for speculation, and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [5] Coking Coal Industry - As of the previous day's close, coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, while spot prices were stable with a slight upward bias. On the supply side, due to environmental protection and other factors, production in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi has decreased, and coal mines are starting to hold prices. Although the overall production has decreased slightly, it is still at a relatively high level. Imported coal prices have rebounded slightly, but there is still obvious inventory pressure. On the demand side, coking plant开工 has started to decline, and downstream blast furnace molten iron production continues to decline after reaching its peak. However, in June, molten iron production remained above 240,000 tons per day, and downstream demand still has resilience, and restocking demand shows signs of recovery. In terms of inventory, coal mine inventories are at a high level and are currently reducing inventory through production cuts. Ports are also reducing inventory from a high level, and downstream users are controlling inventory. The overall inventory is at a medium level. For strategies, the spot fundamentals have improved, and there is a hedging demand for spot merchants after basis repair. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [5] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - **Rebar**: Spot prices in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3130 yuan/ton, remained unchanged in North China at 3160 yuan/ton, and decreased by 10 yuan/ton in South China to 3180 yuan/ton. Futures contract prices also showed small increases [1][3] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Spot prices in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3200 yuan/ton, remained unchanged in North China at 3110 yuan/ton, and decreased by 10 yuan/ton in South China to 3180 yuan/ton. Futures contract prices also had small increases [1][3] Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The price of steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2900 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2954 yuan/ton [1][3] - **Profit**: The profit of East China rebar increased by 18 yuan/ton to 87 yuan/ton, the profit of North China rebar decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 167 yuan/ton, and the profit of South China rebar increased by 8 yuan/ton to 157 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 8 yuan/ton to 197 yuan/ton, the profit of North China hot - rolled coil increased by 8 yuan/ton to 117 yuan/ton, and the profit of South China hot - rolled coil increased by 18 yuan/ton to 197 yuan/ton [1][3] Production - **Daily Average Molten Iron Production**: It decreased slightly by 0.1 to 242.1 tons, with a decline rate of 0.0% [1][3] - **Five - major Steel Products Production**: It increased by 12.5 tons to 881.0 tons, with an increase rate of 1.4% [1][3] - **Rebar Production**: It increased by 5.7 tons to 217.8 tons, with an increase rate of 2.7%. Among them, electric - arc furnace production increased by 1.6 tons to 25.0 tons, with an increase rate of 6.8%, and converter production increased by 4.1 tons to 192.9 tons, with an increase rate of 2.2% [1][3] - **Hot - rolled Coil Production**: It increased by 1.8 tons to 327.2 tons, with an increase rate of 0.6% [1][3] Inventory - **Five - major Steel Products Inventory**: It increased slightly by 1.1 tons to 1340.0 tons, with an increase rate of 0.1% [1][3] - **Rebar Inventory**: It decreased by 2.1 tons to 549.0 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.4% [1][3] - **Hot - rolled Coil Inventory**: It increased by 1.0 tons to 341.2 tons, with an increase rate of 0.3% [1][3] Transaction and Demand - **Building Materials Transaction Volume**: It remained unchanged at 10.5, with an increase rate of 0.4% [1][3] - **Five - major Steel Products Apparent Demand**: It decreased by 4.3 tons to 879.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.5% [1][3] - **Rebar Apparent Demand**: It increased by 0.7 tons to 219.9 tons, with an increase rate of 0.3% [1][3] - **Hot - rolled Coil Apparent Demand**: It decreased by 4.4 tons to 326.3 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.3% [1][3] Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - **Coke Spot Prices**: The price of Grade - A wet - quenched coke in Shanxi remained unchanged at 1094 yuan/ton, while the price of quasi - Grade - A wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1160 yuan/ton [5] - **Coke Futures Prices**: The Coke 09 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 1404 yuan/ton, and the Coke 01 contract decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 1443 yuan/ton [5] Supply - **Full - sample Coking Plant Daily Average Production**: It decreased by 0.2 tons to 64.5 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.3% [5] - **247 Steel Mills Daily Average Production**: It remained unchanged at 47.4 tons, with an increase rate of 0.1% [5] Demand - **247 Steel Mills Molten Iron Production**: It increased slightly by 0.1 tons to 242.3 tons, with an increase rate of 0.0% [5] Inventory - **Total Coke Inventory**: It decreased by 12.0 tons to 940.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.3% [5] - **Full - sample Coking Plant Coke Inventory**: It decreased by 2.6 tons to 113.0 tons, with a decline rate of - 2.2% [5] - **247 Steel Mills Coke Inventory**: It decreased by 6.5 tons to 627.8 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.04% [5] - **Port Inventory**: It decreased by 3.0 tons to 200.1 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.5% [5] Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 0.2 tons to - 5.4 tons, with a decline rate of - 3.84% [5] Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - **Coking Coal Spot Prices**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 5 yuan/ton to 843 yuan/ton [5] - **Coking Coal Futures Prices**: The Coking Coal 09 contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 825 yuan/ton, and the Coking Coal 01 contract decreased by 29 yuan/ton to 861 yuan/ton [5] Supply - **Fenwei Sample Coal Mine Production**: Raw coal production decreased by 3.6 tons to 852.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.4%, and clean coal production decreased by 2.3 tons to 434.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.5% [5] Demand - **Full - sample Coking Plant Daily Average Production**: It decreased by 0.2 tons to 64.5 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.3% [5] - **247 Steel Mills Daily Average Production**: It remained unchanged at 47.4 tons, with an increase rate of 0.1% [5] Inventory - **Fenwei Coal Mine Clean Coal Inventory**: It decreased by 35.6 tons to 223.3 tons, with a decline rate of - 13.8% [5] - **Full - sample Coking Plant Coking Coal Inventory**: It increased by 13.2 tons to 809.0 tons, with an increase rate of 1.74% [5] - **247 Steel Mills Coking Coal Inventory**: It increased by 6.6 tons to 781.2 tons, with an increase rate of 0.8% [5] - **Port Inventory**: It decreased by 17.7 tons to 285.6 tons, with a decline rate of - 5.8% [5]

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| 网材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年7月1日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3130 | 3080 | 50 | 115 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3160 | 3160 | 0 | 145 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3180 | 3190 | -10 | 165 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3020 | 3000 | 11 | 110 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2997 | 2995 | 2 | 133 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3015 | 3005 | 10 | 115 | | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3200 | 3190 | 10 | 72 | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3110 | 3110 | 0 | -18 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rebound due to interest - rate cut expectations and CL spread drivers. Before the "232" investigation ends, the shortage trend of electrolytic copper is difficult to reverse, and there is still support at the bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market maintains a slight surplus, and the future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For aluminum, the current macro - positive and low - inventory situation support the price to run strongly, but the consumption off - season pressure limits the upside space, and it is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level in the short term [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly, and the main reference range is 19200 - 20000 [5]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is in a loose trend. The demand side shows a marginal weakening trend. The inventory is in a destocking state, and the absolute level is low, providing price support. In the short term, zinc prices may rebound, but the fundamentals have not improved essentially, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium - long term [8]. Nickel - Macro sentiment improves, but the cost support of refined nickel is loosened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside space of prices. It is expected to adjust within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 116000 - 124000 [10]. Stainless Steel - Although the market sentiment has improved, the fundamentals remain weak. The bargaining range of nickel - iron continues to move down, and the cost support weakens. The production of stainless steel remains high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 12200 - 13000 [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The inventory is at a high level, and the overall supply is sufficient. The demand is difficult to boost. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 58000 - 64000 [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79990 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is 240.67 dollars/ton, down 79.16 dollars from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The 2507 - 2508 spread is 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 spread is 70 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 60.60 million tons, down 0.66% month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 26.10 million tons, down 0.38% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22490 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1306 yuan/ton, up 1.22 yuan from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In May, the refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month. The refined zinc import volume was 2.82 million tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122250 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel production was 35350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. The refined nickel import volume was 8832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12650 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The 2508 - 2509 spread is 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. The stainless steel import volume was 12.51 million tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 61300 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 57820 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 93960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [15].