1. Investment Ratings The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and consider buying on dips. Monitor macro - level changes and supply - side dynamics [1]. Alumina - The oversupply situation of alumina continues to suppress prices. Expect prices to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern, with the main contract's reference operating range shifting down to 2600 - 2800 yuan/ton. Observe actual production cuts and inventory inflection points [3]. Aluminum - Expect short - term aluminum prices to remain strong, with the main SHFE aluminum contract's reference operating range at 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton. Focus on the latest Fed monetary policy and domestic inventory drawdown sustainability [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by cost and demand. Short - term prices are expected to be relatively strong, with the main contract's reference operating range at 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Monitor scrap aluminum supply improvement and inventory drawdown [5]. Polysilicon - In December, there is an oversupply situation, and each link has inventory build - up expectations. The market is in a state of a strong futures market with low warehouse receipts and a weak spot market with oversupply. Adopt a wait - and - see trading strategy [7]. Industrial Silicon - Maintain the previous expectation of low - level oscillations in industrial silicon prices, with the main price fluctuation range at 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to end - of - year export demand decline and the impact of warehouse receipts flowing into the spot market [8]. Zinc - In the short term, the downward space of zinc prices is limited, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. Prices are likely to oscillate. Monitor the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventory, with the main contract's reference range at 22200 - 23000 [11]. Copper - The medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price's bottom center. Focus on overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts, with the main contract's support at 88500 - 89500 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Expect short - term wide - range oscillations in the lithium carbonate market, with the main contract's reference range at 92000 - 95000. Pay attention to the sustainability of year - end demand and the progress of large - scale plant复产 [16]. Nickel - Expect short - term range - bound oscillations in nickel prices, with the main contract's reference range at 116000 - 120000. Monitor macro - level expectation changes and Indonesian industrial policy news [19]. Stainless Steel - Expect short - term weak oscillations in stainless steel prices, with the main contract's reference operating range at 12300 - 12700. Focus on steel mills' production cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [20]. 3. Summary by Directory Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price rose 1.51% to 309300 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 spread fell 38.67% to 92 dollars/ton; import loss decreased 13.91% to - 16070.31 yuan/ton; some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, tin ore imports increased 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased 53.09%, refined tin imports decreased 58.55%, and exports decreased 15.33%. Inventory increased, with SHEF inventory rising 2.09% and social inventory rising 2.23% [1]. Market Analysis - Macro: US ADP data decline strengthens Fed rate - cut expectations. Supply: Tin ore supply is tight, with limited improvement expected this year. Demand: Tin solder enterprises in South China are more resilient than those in East China [1]. Alumina Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 0.41% to 21800 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased 77.1 yuan/ton to - 1929 yuan/ton; month - to - month spreads remained unchanged [3]. Fundamental Data - In November, alumina production decreased 4.44%, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased 2.82%, and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased 3.50%. Some开工 rates increased slightly, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 2.77% [3]. Market Analysis - Supply: Some enterprises cut production, but overall supply is still abundant, and imports increase supply pressure. Inventory: Domestic visible inventory is accumulating. Cost: Cost support may decline. Price: Expected to oscillate at the bottom [3]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 0.41% to 21800 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased 77.1 yuan/ton to - 1929 yuan/ton; month - to - month spreads remained unchanged [3]. Fundamental Data - In November, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased 2.82%, and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased 3.50%. Some开工 rates increased slightly, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 2.77% [3]. Market Analysis - Macro: Fed rate - cut expectations boost market sentiment, but Japanese central bank's potential rate hike increases volatility. Domestic: Lower aluminum prices stimulate downstream procurement, and inventory decreases [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged; some scrap - to - refined aluminum price spreads increased. Month - to - month spreads changed [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased 5.74%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased 5.84%. Some开工 rates increased, and recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased 1.59% [5]. Market Analysis - Supply: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and cost support is strong. Demand: Automobile parts orders support demand. Price: Short - term prices are expected to be strong [5]. Polysilicon Price and Spread - Polysilicon spot prices stabilized, and futures prices oscillated higher. The main contract rose 1115 yuan/ton to 57430 yuan/ton. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [7]. Fundamental Data - Weekly and monthly polysilicon and silicon wafer production decreased. Polysilicon imports increased, and exports decreased. Inventory increased, with polysilicon inventory rising 3.69% and silicon wafer inventory rising 4.17% [7]. Market Analysis - The market is in a state of a strong futures market with low warehouse receipts and a weak spot market with oversupply. In December, downstream production is expected to decline significantly, and polysilicon may face inventory build - up pressure [7]. Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - East China oxygen - enriched SI5530 industrial silicon spot price fell 0.52% to 9500 yuan/ton; futures price oscillated lower. Some month - to - month spreads changed [8]. Fundamental Data - In November, national industrial silicon production decreased 11.17%, and some regional production and开工 rates decreased. Organic silicon DMC production increased 3.82%, and industrial silicon exports decreased 35.82%. Inventory increased slightly [8]. Market Analysis - Supply: Production is expected to decline slightly, but demand may also decrease. Inventory: Warehouse receipts will flow into the spot market, increasing supply pressure. Price: Expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose 0.22% to 22790 yuan/ton; import loss decreased 326.75 yuan/ton to - 5143 yuan/ton; some month - to - month spreads changed [11]. Fundamental Data - In November, refined zinc production decreased 3.56%. In October, imports decreased 16.94%, and exports increased 243.79%. Some开工 rates were stable, and LME inventory increased 1.87% [11]. Market Analysis - Supply: TC decline compresses smelting profits, and export space opens, reducing supply pressure. Demand: Some improvement in demand structure, but terminal demand is stable. Price: Expected to oscillate [11]. Copper Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 0.36% to 88980 yuan/ton; some spreads changed. Arbitrage loss decreased 28.61 yuan/ton to - 1433 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In November, electrolytic copper production increased 1.05%. In October, imports decreased 15.61%. Some开工 rates decreased, and domestic social inventory decreased 11.96% [13]. Market Analysis - Macro: Rate - cut expectations boost copper prices. Supply: Concerns about supply shortages persist, and CSPT may cut production. Demand: High copper prices still see spot premiums and stable processing - end开工 rates [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price fell 0.05% to 94350 yuan/ton; month - to - month spreads changed [16]. Fundamental Data - In November, lithium carbonate production increased 3.35%, demand increased 5.11%, imports increased 21.86%, and exports increased 63.05%. Inventory decreased, with total inventory decreasing 23.36% [16]. Market Analysis - Price: The futures market fell. Supply: A new lithium mine project approval stirs the market. Demand: Demand is optimistic, but concerns remain about the sustainability of year - end demand [16]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 0.08% to 120000 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 spread rose 3.53% to - 195 dollars/ton; import loss decreased 39.64% to - 874 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamental Data - Chinese refined nickel production decreased 9.38%, and imports decreased 65.66%. SHFE inventory increased 2.48%, and LME inventory decreased 0.51% [19]. Market Analysis - Macro: Market expects Fed rate hike, and Sino - US call eases sentiment. Supply: Refined nickel spot transactions are average, and nickel ore prices are under pressure. Demand: Stainless steel demand is weak, and nickel sulfate demand is expanding [19]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B stainless steel prices remained unchanged; some month - to - month spreads changed [20]. Fundamental Data - Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased 0.72%, and Indonesian production increased 0.36%. Imports increased 3.18%, and exports decreased 14.43%. 300 - series social inventory increased 1.92% [20]. Market Analysis - Macro: Fed rate - hike expectations and Chinese fiscal policies. Supply: Nickel - iron production increases, and supply pressure remains. Demand: It is the off - season, and demand is weak. Price: Expected to oscillate weakly [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][7] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3250 - 3400. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has converged to 180, and it can continue to be held. Considering the decline in hot metal, the iron ore price is suppressed, and one can focus on the long - rebar and short - ore arbitrage operation in the January contract. [1] Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore futures will oscillate in the range of 750 - 820. There is support from downstream restocking, and there is a need for basis repair. Although the price is at a high level, with the improvement of market expectations and the support of downstream demand, the iron ore demand is stable. [3] Coke Industry - Coke futures have basically overdrawn the spot price cut expectation, and the further decline space is limited. It can be viewed as a unilateral oscillation, with the reference range of 1550 - 1700. The recommended arbitrage strategy is the 1 - 5 reverse spread. [7] Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal spot and futures prices are in a range - bound oscillation after a significant decline. It can be viewed as a unilateral oscillation, with the reference range of 1050 - 1150. The recommended arbitrage strategy is the 1 - 5 reverse spread. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions have slight changes, with some prices falling. Futures contract prices also have some fluctuations. For example, rebar spot in the South China region decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3340 yuan/ton, and the rebar 10 - contract price dropped by 5 yuan/ton to 3203 yuan/ton. [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The profit of some steel products has improved, such as the profit of East China rebar increased by 12 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 2 yuan/ton. [1] Production - The daily average hot - metal output decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The output of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons to 855.7 tons, an increase of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 1.9 tons to 206.1 tons, a decline of 0.9%. [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.3 tons to 1400.8 tons, a decline of 2.3%. Rebar inventory decreased by 21.9 tons to 531.5 tons, a decline of 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 400.9 tons, a decline of 0.3%. [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 9.0, a decline of 8.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.2 tons to 888.0 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.8 tons to 227.9 tons, a decline of 1.2%. [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the basis of the January contract also changed. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 7.7 yuan/ton to 803.3 yuan/ton, and the basis of the January contract for Carajás fines decreased by 6.7 yuan/ton to 3.8 yuan/ton. [3] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port decreased slightly, while the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index increased slightly. For example, the spot price of Carajás fines in Rizhao Port decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 883 yuan/ton. [3] Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 117.8 tons to 2699.3 tons, a decline of 4.2%. The global weekly shipment volume increased by 44.8 tons to 3323.2 tons, an increase of 1.4%. The monthly national import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decline of 4.3%. [3] Demand - The weekly daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The weekly daily average port clearance volume increased by 3.6 tons to 330.6 tons, an increase of 1.1%. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decline of 0.8%. [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 27.3 tons to 15237.39 tons, an increase of 0.2%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decline of 0.7%. [3] Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke spot prices remained unchanged, and futures contract prices decreased slightly. For example, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained at 1662 yuan/ton, and the coke 05 - contract price decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 1752 yuan/ton. [7] Supply - The weekly daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The weekly daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%. [7] Demand - The weekly hot - metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. [7] Inventory Changes - Coke total inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 884.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 6.5 tons to 71.8 tons, an increase of 9.94%. The inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.2 tons to 625.5 tons, an increase of 0.5%. [7] Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 3.6 tons to 2.0 tons. [7] Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of some coking coal spot increased slightly, and futures contract prices decreased. For example, the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1205 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 01 - contract price decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 1071 yuan/ton. [7] Supply - The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased. The raw coal output increased by 4.6 tons to 856.1 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The clean coal output increased by 4.9 tons to 438.8 tons, an increase of 1.1%. [7] Demand - The demand for coking coal is affected by the decline in hot - metal output and the change in coking plant production. [7] Inventory Changes - The inventory of washing plants, ports, and coking plants decreased, while the inventory of coal mines, ports of entry, and steel mills increased. The total inventory increased slightly. [7]

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 -6.0 日 297.00 303.00 -1.98% -7.9 198.60 山东 万/立方米 206.5 -3.83% 江苏 1.9 85.09 83.18 2.30% 需求:日均出库量 (周慶) 11月21日 11月28日 涨跌 涨跌幅 地区 单位 中国 6.13 6.44 -0.31 -5% 3.59 -0.55 万/立方米 -15% 山东 3.04 2.36 江苏 0.26 2.62 11% 原木日均出库量(万方) 原木主要港口库存(万方) 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/11/1 2022 - 2023 - =2024 =2025 =2022 -2023 =2024 =2025 辐射松4米中A:CFR价(美元/JAS立方米 辐射松3.8中A现货价(元/立方米) 220 870 =2022 -2020 ...

免责声明 | 基差 | 留注 | 现货价格 | 期货价格 | 基差率 | 历史分位数 | 品种/合约 | 现货参考 | 1.51% | 85 | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF603) | 65.70% | 5528 | 5446 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 76 | 133% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 5800 | 5724 | 39.80% | 硅锰(SM603) | 131 | 4.13% | 3300 | 58.00% | HRB40020mm:上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) | 3169 | | | | | | -19 | -0.57% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 热卷(HC2605) | 3300 | 3319 | 10.70% | 52 | 6.48% | 851 | 铁矿石 (12601) | 800 | 41.80% ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading opportunities for A - share index futures are limited due to low trading volume and volatility [2]. - The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September, and the allocation value of bonds within 10 years is relatively improved. The 30 - year bonds may be oversold under emotional drive. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees [2]. - Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits [2]. - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - For steel, it is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage. Iron ore is in high - level consolidation, and coking coal and coke are also in a consolidation state [2]. - Copper prices are rising again, and aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for various non - ferrous metals [2][3]. - For new energy and chemical products, different products have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited [3]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products have different market situations, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different trends, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share index futures have low trading volume and volatility, and the short - term trading space is limited. The dividend sector is firm, and the index futures are trading weakly [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September. The 30 - year bonds are relatively weak, and the short - term market driver may come from the policy expectation difference. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. The positive arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract is recommended for the spot - futures strategy [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits. Platinum and palladium should be traded with a short - term high - selling and low - buying strategy, and the long - platinum and short - palladium hedge should take profits at high levels [2]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. It is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage and narrow the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment is increasing, the arrival is decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. It is in high - level consolidation, with the range from 750 to 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The price reduction range of coal in the production area is expanding, and the price of Mongolian coal is stable. The futures price is falling again, with the range from 1050 to 1150, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts in December has been implemented, and the port trading price is falling. It is in a consolidation state, with the range from 1550 to 1700, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. Non - Ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The LME cancelled warehouse receipts are increasing significantly, and copper prices are rising again. The short - term decline space is limited [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for aluminum, waste aluminum, and aluminum alloy, with corresponding price ranges [2][3]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: For zinc, supply reduction and interest - rate cut expectations provide support, but the spot trading is dull [4]. For other non - ferrous metals such as tin, nickel, and stainless steel, different market trends and trading suggestions are provided [3]. New Energy and Chemical Sector - **New Energy**: Different new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as polysilicon futures rising while the spot price is stable [3]. - **Chemical Products**: Different chemical products have different market situations, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Different energy and chemical products such as LLDPE, PP, and methanol have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - Different agricultural products such as palm oil, sugar, and cotton have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3].

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2512 | 总持仓明显上升 | 中信多空头各增仓超 2000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2512 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 国君多空头各增仓近千手 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2512 | 总持仓明显上升 | 国君多空头各增仓近 2000 手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2512 | 总持仓大幅上升 | 国君中信均明显增仓 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 3,766.0 2,099.0 6,171.0 11,621.0 10,409.0 3,910.0 10,653.0 23,105.0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持仓变动 数据来源：Wind 广发 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core Views - For glass and soda ash, the supply - demand pattern of soda ash is bearish, with expected bottom - side oscillations. Glass prices may face pressure in the medium - to - long term, especially after December [1]. - For PVC and caustic soda, the caustic soda price is expected to be weak, and PVC is likely to continue its bottom - weakening trend due to supply - demand imbalances [2]. - For LLDPE and PP, the fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [4]. - For methanol, port destocking expectations are strengthened, and the price has bottom - side support [6]. - For crude oil, short - term oil prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations between $60 - 65 per barrel [11]. - For natural rubber, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile [12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene prices may face upward pressure, and styrene is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation in the short term [13]. - For the polyester industry chain, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip all have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, with corresponding trading strategies proposed [14]. - For urea, no clear core view on price trends is provided, but supply and inventory data are presented [15]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot prices in different regions remained stable on December 4, 2025. Futures prices of glass 2601 and soda ash 2601 decreased, while the basis of 01 contracts for both increased [1]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and float - glass daily melting volume decreased, and photovoltaic daily melting volume also declined [1]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventories and soda ash factory and delivery - warehouse inventories decreased [1]. - **Real Estate Data**: New - construction area, construction area, and sales area declined year - on - year, while the completion area increased [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: Some PVC and caustic soda prices decreased on December 3, 2025, and the basis and spread of some contracts changed [2]. - **Export**: The export profit of caustic soda increased, while that of PVC decreased [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's overall开工 rate decreased slightly, and the PVC开工 rate increased [2]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in some regions and PVC upstream factories increased [2]. LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts decreased on December 3, 2025, and the spreads between some contracts changed [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PE装置开工率 increased, and the PP粉料开工率 increased, while the downstream weighted开工 rate of PE decreased slightly, and that of PP increased slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP decreased [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices decreased on December 3, 2025, and the basis and spread of some contracts changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 and overseas enterprise开工率 decreased, while some downstream开工率 increased [6]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased on December 3, 2025, while SC crude oil prices decreased. The spreads between different contracts of crude oil and refined oil changed [11]. - **Market Situation**: Due to the Ukraine - Russia situation and EIA data, oil prices first rose and then fell, and short - term oil prices are expected to range - bound oscillate [11]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Some natural rubber spot prices decreased on December 3, 2025, and the basis and spread of some contracts changed [12]. - **Production and Consumption**: The production of natural rubber in some regions decreased, and the开工率 of some downstream industries changed [12]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber increased [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products and styrene - related products changed on December 3, 2025, and the basis, spread, and cash - flow of some contracts changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased, and the styrene inventory decreased [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工 rate of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chains changed [13]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products, polyester products, and related spreads and cash - flows changed on December 3, 2025 [14]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the arrival expectation also increased [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工 rate of some industries in the polyester industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [14]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: Urea futures prices and spot prices in different regions changed slightly on December 3, 2025, and the basis, spread, and cross - regional spread changed [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily output and the production enterprise开工率 increased, and the factory - warehouse inventory decreased [15].

| 国债期货价差日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年12月4日 | | | | | | Z0019608 熊客健 | | 种类 | 日期 | 品种 | IRR (%) | 最新值 | 较前一交易目变化 | 上市以来百分位数 | | | 2025-12-03 | TS基差 | 1.6478 | -0.0609 | -0.0231 | 30.00% | | | 2025-12-03 | TF基差 | 1.7661 | -0.0921 | -0.0493 | 50.60% | | 基差 | 2025-12-03 | T基产 | 1.9644 | -0.0373 | -0.0906 | 68.60% | | | 2025-12-03 | TL 泉元 | 2.0675 | 0.3058 | -0.3083 | 75.50% | | | 2025-12-03 | 当季 下空 | | 0.0120 | -0.0160 | 26.10% | | TS跨期价差 | 2025-12 ...

Report on the Steel Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market is in a state of reducing production and inventory, with relatively minor contradictions. Steel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coils is 3250 - 3400. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has converged to 180, and it can continue to be held. Considering the decline in hot metal, which suppresses iron ore prices, one can focus on the long - rebar and short - ore arbitrage operation in the January contract [1]. 3. Summary by Section Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3300 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3340 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices of 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3169 yuan/ton, 3203 yuan/ton, and 3137 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3300 yuan/ton, 3240 yuan/ton, and 3340 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices of 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3324 yuan/ton, 3337 yuan/ton, and 3319 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Costs: Steel billet price is 2990 yuan/ton, Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar cost is 3245 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu converter rebar cost is 3177 yuan/ton [1]. - Profits: East China rebar profit is - 34 yuan/ton, North China rebar profit is - 114 yuan/ton, and South China rebar profit is 206 yuan/ton. East China hot - rolled coil profit is - 24 yuan/ton, North China hot - rolled coil profit is - 94 yuan/ton, and South China hot - rolled coil profit is 16 yuan/ton [1]. Production - Daily average hot metal output is 234.7 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons or 0.7% compared to the previous value. The output of five major steel products is 855.7 tons, an increase of 5.8 tons or 0.7%. Rebar output is 206.1 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons or 0.9%. Among them, electric - arc furnace output is 29.3 tons, an increase of 2.6 tons or 9.5%, and converter output is 176.7 tons, a decrease of 4.4 tons or 2.4%. Hot - rolled coil output is 319.0 tons, an increase of 3.0 tons or 0.9% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1400.8 tons, a decrease of 32.3 tons or 2.3%. Rebar inventory is 531.5 tons, a decrease of 21.9 tons or 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 400.9 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons or 0.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume is 9.0 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or 8.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products is 888.0 tons, a decrease of 6.2 tons or 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar is 227.9 tons, a decrease of 2.8 tons or 1.2%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 320.2 tons, a decrease of 4.2 tons or 1.3% [1]. Report on the Iron Ore Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore futures are expected to oscillate within the range of 750 - 820. The supply side shows that the global iron ore shipment volume increased week - on - week last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin continued to decline, hot metal output decreased, and steel mill maintenance increased. With the rebound of steel prices, there is room for raw material price increases. The downstream demand is expected to pick up, and the hot metal output has no basis for a large - scale decline, which supports the iron ore demand [3]. 3. Summary by Section Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs: The warehouse receipt cost of Karara fines is 803.3 yuan/ton, PB fines is 844.7 yuan/ton, Brazilian blended fines is 847.0 yuan/ton, and Jinbuba fines is 843.5 yuan/ton [3]. - Basis: The 01 - contract basis for Karara fines is 3.8 yuan/ton, PB fines is 45.2 yuan/ton, Brazilian blended fines is 47.5 yuan/ton, and Jinbuba fines is 44.0 yuan/ton [3]. - Spreads: The 5 - 9 spread is 24.0 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread is - 46.5 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is 22.5 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices at Rizhao Port: Karara fines is 883.0 yuan/ton, PB fines is 796.0 yuan/ton, Brazilian blended fines is 824.0 yuan/ton, and Jinbuba fines is 741.0 yuan/ton [3]. - Price indexes: The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap is 107.4 dollars/ton, and the Platts 62% Fe is 107.8 dollars/ton [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2699.3 tons, a decrease of 117.8 tons or 4.2%. The global shipment volume (weekly) is 3323.2 tons, an increase of 44.8 tons or 1.4%. The national monthly import volume is 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 500.6 tons or 4.3% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 234.7 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons or 0.7%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports (weekly) is 330.6 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons or 1.1%. The national monthly pig iron output is 6554.9 tons, a decrease of 49.7 tons or 0.8%. The national monthly crude steel output is 7199.7 tons, a decrease of 149.3 tons or 2.0% [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory (weekly, compared to Monday) is 15237.39 tons, an increase of 27.3 tons or 0.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8942.5 tons, a decrease of 58.8 tons or 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 20.0 days, unchanged from the previous value [3]. Report on the Coke Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Coke: The coke futures are expected to oscillate. The reference range is 1550 - 1700. The first round of price reduction for coke has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price reduction in the short term. The supply side has some changes in production, and the demand side is affected by steel mill losses and maintenance. The inventory is slightly increasing at a medium level. An arbitrage strategy of short - 01 and long - 05 for coke is recommended [7]. - Coking coal: The coking coal futures are expected to oscillate within the range of 1050 - 1150. The spot market is weak, and the supply side has production changes. The demand side's replenishment demand is weakening. An arbitrage strategy of short - 01 and long - 05 for coking coal is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Section Coke - related Prices and Spreads - Spot prices: The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) is 1662 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) is 1603 yuan/ton [7]. - Futures prices: The coke 01 contract is 1625 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract is 1752 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis: The 01 - contract basis is 5 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is - 149 yuan/ton [7]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - Spot prices: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) is 1300 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) is 1205 yuan/ton [7]. - Futures prices: The coking coal 01 contract is 1071 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract is 1165 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis: The 01 - contract basis is - 22 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is 20 yuan/ton [7]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons or 1.7%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 0.2% [7]. - Coking coal production: The output of sample coal mines (weekly) has a certain change, and the daily output of coal mines has decreased slightly [7]. Demand - Coke demand: Affected by the decline in hot metal output of steel mills, the demand for coke is weakening [7]. - Coking coal demand: With the recovery of coking plant profits and a slight increase in production, the replenishment demand for coking coal is weakening [7]. Inventory Changes - Coke inventory: The total coke inventory is 884.7 tons, an increase of 4.0 tons or 0.5%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants is 71.8 tons, an increase of 6.5 tons or 9.94%. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 625.5 tons, an increase of 3.2 tons or 0.5%. The port inventory is 187.4 tons, a decrease of 5.6 tons or - 2.94% [7]. - Coking coal inventory: The inventory of all - sample coking plants is 1010.3 tons, a decrease of 27.9 tons or - 2.7%. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 801.3 tons, an increase of 4.2 tons or 0.5%. The port inventory is 294.5 tons, an increase of 3.0 tons or 1.0% [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and consider adding long positions on price pullbacks. Monitor macro and supply - side changes [1]. Aluminum Oxide The oversupply situation continues to suppress prices, which are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The reference range for the main contract is lowered to 2600 - 2800 yuan/ton. Observe actual production cuts and inventory inflection points [3]. Aluminum Short - term aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, with the reference range for the SHFE main contract this week being 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton. Focus on the latest Fed monetary policy and domestic inventory depletion sustainability [3]. Aluminum Alloy The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by cost and demand. Short - term prices are expected to remain firm, with the main contract reference range at 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Monitor scrap aluminum supply improvement and inventory depletion [5]. Polysilicon In December, there is an oversupply situation, and each link is expected to accumulate inventory. The trading strategy is to wait and see [7]. Industrial Silicon The industrial silicon market in December remains in a weak supply - demand situation. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range at 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [8]. Zinc The zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The supply pressure is relieved, but the fundamentals provide limited upward momentum. The main contract reference range is 22200 - 23000 yuan/ton [11]. Copper The medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract support range is 88500 - 89500 yuan/ton. Monitor overseas interest rate cut expectations and smelting production cuts [13]. Lithium Carbonate The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range at 92000 - 95000 yuan/ton [16]. Nickel The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range at 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton. Monitor macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [19]. Stainless Steel The short - term disk is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range at 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton. Monitor steel mills' production cut implementation and ferro - nickel prices [20]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices rose 1.51%, LME 0 - 3 spread dropped 38.67%. Import loss decreased 13.91%, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports, SMM refined tin production, and average开工率 increased, while refined tin imports, exports, and SMM solder开工率 decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF, social, and LME inventories increased, while SHEF warehouse receipts decreased slightly [1]. Aluminum Oxide - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum prices rose 0.41%, and most alumina prices remained unchanged. Aluminum import loss decreased, and monthly spreads were stable [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production decreased, while alumina开工率 and some downstream开工率 increased [3]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod social inventories decreased, while electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory increased [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM ADC12 alloy prices were stable, and some scrap - to - refined aluminum price spreads increased [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased, while unforged aluminum alloy ingot imports decreased and exports increased [5]. - **Inventory**: Recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased slightly, and some daily inventories changed [5]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: Polysilicon spot prices were stable, futures prices rose, and silicon wafer and component prices fell. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In November and December, polysilicon and silicon wafer production decreased, imports and exports changed, and demand decreased [7]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon spot prices fell slightly, and futures prices declined. Some monthly spreads changed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, national industrial silicon production decreased, and some regional production and开工率 changed. Organic silicon production increased [8]. - **Inventory**: Some regional factory inventories and social inventories increased slightly [8]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot prices rose slightly, and import loss decreased. Some monthly spreads changed [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, refined zinc production decreased, imports decreased, and exports increased. Downstream开工率 was relatively stable [11]. - **Inventory**: Chinese zinc ingot social inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased [11]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper prices rose, and some spreads changed. Import loss increased slightly [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased, and imports decreased. Some processing开工率 decreased [13]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social and SHFE inventories decreased, while bonded and LME inventories increased [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased slightly, and some monthly spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, lithium carbonate production and demand increased, imports and exports increased, and开工率 increased [16]. - **Inventory**: Lithium carbonate total, downstream, and smelter inventories decreased [16]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel prices rose slightly, and some spreads and costs changed [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Chinese refined nickel production and imports decreased, and some inventories increased or decreased [19]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME and bonded area inventories decreased [19]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B stainless steel prices were stable, and some monthly spreads changed [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Chinese and Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel production changed, imports increased, and exports decreased [20]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social and cold - rolled social inventories increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased slightly [20].