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广发期货《金融》日报-20251126
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 05:13
Report Summary of Multiple Futures 1. General Information - The reports cover multiple futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, with data mainly from November 24 - 27, 2025 [1][2][3][4] 2. Stock Index Futures (SIF) [1] - **Price Differences** - F, H, C, and INMMAR contracts show various changes in spot - futures and inter - period spreads compared to the previous day - For example, F spot - futures spread is - 4.56, with a 23.50% change from the previous day - **Cross - Variety Ratios** - Ratios such as CSI 500 / SSE 300, IC / IF have different values and percentile positions - CSI 500 / SSE 300 is 1.5488, with a 0.0045 change and 73.30% in the past year's percentile 3. Treasury Bond Futures (TBF) [2] - **IRR and Base - Spread** - TS, TF, T, and TL contracts have different implied repo rates (IRR) and base - spreads - TS IRR is 1.7177% on November 25, 2025, with a - 0.0868 change - **Inter - Period and Cross - Variety Spreads** - Different contracts show various inter - period and cross - variety spreads - TS - TF cross - variety spread is - 3.5580 on November 25, 2025 4. Precious Metal Futures (PMF) [3] - **Prices** - Domestic and overseas futures and spot prices have different changes - AU2602 domestic futures contract rose 1.74% from November 24 to 25, while COMEX gold主力 contract fell 0.18% - **Base - Spreads and Ratios** - Gold and silver base - spreads have different values and percentile positions - Gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 base - spread is - 5.81, with a - 1.24 change and 2.40% in the past year's percentile - COMEX gold / silver and SHFE gold / silver ratios also changed 5. Container Shipping Futures (CSF) [4] - **Index and Price** - Shipping indices such as SCFIS and SCFI have different changes - SCFIS (European route) rose 20.75% from November 17 to 24, while SCFI (European) fell 3.53% from November 14 to 21 - Futures prices of EC contracts generally declined, and the base - spread of the main contract increased - **Fundamentals** - Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged, while port - related indicators and overseas economic data had different changes - Shanghai port on - time rate increased 14.75% from the previous period, and the eurozone's composite PMI decreased 0.19%
广发期货日评-20251126
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 05:08
Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Views - The domestic stock index is resilient, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. After the third - quarter reports, A - shares are in a repricing adjustment, with short - term periodic callbacks and rebounds, and limited downside risks. The market volume is shrinking, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - The short - term bond market is in a box - type shock stage. For 10 - year treasury bonds, the active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate in a narrow range of 1.8% - 1.83%. Different treasury bond futures contracts have their respective expected fluctuation ranges. Unilateral, migration, and cash - futures strategies are recommended accordingly [2]. - Gold is currently oscillating in the range of $4050 - $4150, and may rise to over $4200 if it breaks through the resistance. Silver follows gold but has a larger amplitude, oscillating in the range of $50 - $52.5. Short - term light - position long positions can be tried if volatility increases [2]. - The container shipping index (European Line) is in short - term shock downward movement [2]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize with the recovery of apparent demand. Iron ore is oscillating with a bullish bias, while coking coal and coke are viewed as bearish in the shock [2]. - Copper prices have risen and then fallen due to stronger interest - rate cut expectations. Other non - ferrous metals have their own expected price ranges and trends [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, various products such as PTA, short - fiber, and others have different market trends and trading strategies recommended [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products like soybean meal, pigs, and others have different supply - demand situations and corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Category Financial - **Stock Index**: Domestic stock index is resilient. After the third - quarter reports, A - shares are repricing. Short - term periodic fluctuations with limited downside. Market volume shrinking, recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term box - type shock. Different contracts have specific expected fluctuation ranges. Unilateral, migration, and cash - futures strategies are recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold oscillates between $4050 - $4150, may rise above $4200 if breaking resistance. Silver fluctuates more with gold, in the range of $50 - $52.5. Short - term light - position long positions can be tried if volatility increases [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to stabilize due to apparent demand recovery. Recommend to pay attention to support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating with a bullish bias, in the range of 750 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Viewed as bearish in the shock, in the range of 1050 - 1150 [2]. - **Coke**: Viewed as bearish in the shock, in the range of 1550 - 1700 [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices rise and then fall due to stronger interest - rate cut expectations, with a reference range of 85500 - 87500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: With a confrontation between strong expectations and weak reality, prices may decline further if the position continues to be reduced, with a reference range of 21100 - 21700 [2]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each has its own expected price range and trading suggestions [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Petrochemical Products**: Different products such as PX, PTA, and short - fiber have different supply - demand situations and trading strategies [2]. - **Plastics and Chemicals**: Products like LLDPE, PP, and methanol have their own market trends and recommended operations [2]. - **Building Materials**: Glass rebounds with the cold - repair of production lines in Hubei, and other building materials have different trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber oscillates with limited short - term drivers, and synthetic rubber is expected to face pressure above [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different products such as soybean meal, corn, and palm oil have different supply - demand situations and trading strategies [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: Pigs have supply pressure, and eggs have a slow de - capacity process [2]. - **Cash Crops**: Products like cotton, sugar, and apples have different market trends and trading suggestions [2].
原木期货日报-20251126
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The log futures are currently in a low - level oscillation. Last week, the spot price was adjusted downward. The supply side has a continuous increase in arrivals, and inventory accumulation is putting significant pressure on the market. Demand remains resilient. The valuation of the futures contract is relatively low, and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices forms a certain support for import costs. Overall, in the context of a weak fundamental situation, the log futures market is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 25, the prices of log 2601, log 2603, and log 2605 were 764.5, 777.0, and 792.0 respectively, with decreases of - 0.46%, - 0.26%, and - 0.38% compared to November 24 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 25 compared to November 24, with a 0.00% change [2]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 25 was 7.094 yuan, a decrease of 0.01 yuan compared to November 24, and the import theoretical cost was 808.91 yuan, a decrease of 1.28 yuan [2]. Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In October, the port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, a 13.99% increase compared to September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54, a 17.39% increase compared to the previous period [2]. - **Inventory**: As of November 21, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 303 million cubic meters, an 8 - million - cubic - meter increase compared to November 14, with a 2.71% increase. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also had corresponding changes [2][3]. Demand - The daily average outbound volume of logs in China decreased by 0.12 million cubic meters from November 14 to November 21, a 2% decrease. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [3]. Forecast - From November 24 to November 30, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 6, a 54% week - on - week decrease, and the arrival volume was about 21.7 million cubic meters, a 48% week - on - week decrease [3].
广发早知道:汇总版-20251126
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic stock index shows strong resilience, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization with reduced volatility. It is advisable to mainly observe the market due to the ongoing repricing adjustment of A - shares after the third - quarter reports, with limited downside risks and shrinking trading volume [4]. - For treasury bonds, the long - term bond is affected by the expected implementation of the new regulations on bond fund redemptions, and the curve slightly steepens. A range - bound operation is recommended for the unilateral strategy, and short - position investors can accelerate the position - shifting pace. Attention should be paid to the cash - and - carry strategy for the 2603 contract [6]. - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term bull market of precious metals is expected to continue. Gold is currently oscillating in the range of $4050 - 4150, and silver is fluctuating in the range of $50 - 52.5. Short - term investors can try to go long on silver if the price rises [10]. - The shipping index (European line) is expected to decline in the short term [11]. - For base metals, the prices of most metals are expected to maintain an oscillating pattern, with different influencing factors and price ranges for each metal [12][15][18][20][23][26][30][33][37][41][43]. - For black metals, steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range, iron ore is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend, and coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate with a downward trend [48][50][53][57]. - For agricultural products, the domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the cost side lacks substantial positive factors [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, A - share major indices opened higher and the market recovered. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87% to 3870.02 points. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and the basis discount of the main contracts was repaired [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, the leaders of China and the US had a phone call, and the situation of Sino - US relations was discussed. Overseas, the US was making progress in promoting the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [3][4]. - **Funding**: On November 25, the A - share market trading volume increased slightly compared to the previous day. The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The domestic stock index is resilient. It is recommended to wait for stabilization with reduced volatility and mainly observe the market [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures mostly closed down. The 30 - year and 10 - year main contracts declined, while the 2 - year main contract rose slightly [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1 trillion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with a net MLF injection of 100 billion yuan in November [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market is in a range - bound stage. A range - bound operation is recommended for the unilateral strategy, and short - position investors can accelerate the position - shifting pace. Attention should be paid to the cash - and - carry strategy for the 2603 contract [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US economic data showed divergence. Retail sales growth slowed down, PPI inflation rose, and private - sector employment decreased. The Fed official supported interest - rate cuts, and the market was cautious, with precious metals oscillating [7][8][9]. - **Outlook**: The long - term bull market of precious metals is expected to continue. Gold is oscillating in the range of $4050 - 4150, and silver is fluctuating in the range of $50 - 52.5. Short - term investors can try to go long on silver if the price rises [10]. - **Funding**: The gold ETF changed little, but the silver ETF had a large - scale inflow of over 250 tons [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - **Shipping Index**: As of November 24, the SCFIS European line index rose 20.7% month - on - month, while the US West route index fell 10.5% month - on - month. As of November 21, the SCFI composite index fell 4% month - on - month [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 20, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.17% year - on - year. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - **Logic**: The futures market oscillated, and the spot market was weak. The main 02 contract fell 7.78% [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to decline in the short term [11]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of November 25, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper increased, while the average premium decreased. Downstream demand returned to the rigid - demand procurement stage [12]. - **Macro**: Ukraine has basically agreed to the peace agreement proposed by the US, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December has returned to 80% [12]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the output of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [12][13]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod increased, and the downstream demand showed strong resilience [13]. - **Inventory**: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while the domestic social inventory decreased [14]. - **Logic**: The probability of a December interest - rate cut has increased, and copper prices slightly rose and then fell. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of copper prices [15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 85500 - 87500 yuan/ton [15]. Alumina - **Spot**: On November 25, the spot prices of alumina in various regions remained unchanged. The supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the spot price is under pressure [15]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year. It is expected that the supply will remain in surplus in November, and high - cost enterprises may reduce production [16]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory and factory inventory decreased, while the electrolytic aluminum factory inventory increased. The total registered warehouse receipts decreased [16]. - **Logic**: The market oscillated at a low level, and the supply showed signs of contraction. The overall inventory accumulation rate slowed down, and the market may bottom out and oscillate [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 25, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the premium decreased. Market activity and actual transactions increased after the price decline [18]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may slightly decline in November [18]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rates of aluminum processing products were divided. High prices restricted downstream demand [18]. - **Inventory**: The domestic mainstream consumption area inventory and LME inventory decreased [19]. - **Logic**: The market showed a high - level position - reduction and correction trend, with a combination of positive and negative factors in the macro and fundamental aspects. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 21100 - 21700 yuan/ton. If the position continues to be reduced, there may be further downward space in the short term [19]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On November 25, the average prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions remained unchanged [20]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the operating rate decreased. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline slightly in November due to the shortage of scrap aluminum [20]. - **Demand**: The traditional automobile consumption season is in progress, but the demand transmission is not smooth, and high prices suppress downstream procurement [20]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory and registered warehouse receipts increased [21]. - **Logic**: The market showed a high - level correction trend. The cost side was strongly supported, and the supply was restricted by raw materials. The demand was affected by high prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20300 - 20900 yuan/ton. An arbitrage strategy of going long on AD02 and short on AL02 can be considered when the spread is above 650 [22]. Zinc - **Spot**: On November 25, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased. The spot purchase was still based on demand, and the transaction was average [23]. - **Supply**: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc concentrates decreased, and the profit of smelters was compressed. It is expected that the output of refined zinc will decline in November [24]. - **Demand**: The spot premium increased. The operating rates of the three primary processing industries were basically stable, and the downstream purchased on dips. The export space was opened, which may boost the domestic zinc price [25]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased, and the LME inventory increased [25]. - **Logic**: The fundamentals changed little, and the zinc price oscillated. The supply pressure was relieved, and the demand improved structurally. It is expected to continue to oscillate [26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton [26]. Tin - **Spot**: On November 25, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the premium remained unchanged. The market transaction was light [26]. - **Supply**: In October, the import volume of tin ore and tin ingot showed different trends. It is expected that the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar will increase in November, and the import volume of tin ingot will remain at a low level [27][28]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In October, the operating rate of solder decreased. The inventory of LME and the social inventory increased [29]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in South China is relatively stable. It is recommended to maintain a long - position on tin due to strong fundamentals [30]. - **Operation Suggestion**: A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [30]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 25, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased. The supply of refined nickel decreased, and it was difficult to find discounted spot goods [30]. - **Supply**: In the capacity expansion cycle, the output of refined nickel is expected to decrease month - on - month but remains at a high level [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating is stable, the demand for alloys is good, the demand for stainless steel is average, and the demand for nickel sulfate has short - term support [31]. - **Inventory**: The domestic and overseas inventories are at a high level, and the bonded - area inventory is stable [31]. - **Logic**: The market oscillated and recovered. The upstream production reduction and low valuation drove the market. The macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are weak. It is expected to oscillate and recover [32][33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 25, the prices of Wuxi Hongwang and Foshan Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel were stable or increased, and the basis decreased [33]. - **Raw Materials**: The nickel ore market is stable, the price of nickel iron is under pressure, and the cost support of chromium iron is weakening [34]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of stainless steel increased. In November, the production is expected to decrease slightly. The supply pressure is still high [35]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [35]. - **Logic**: The market slightly rose, and the spot market purchase price was stable. The macro situation is temporarily stable, the raw material cost support is weakening, and the supply pressure remains. It is expected to oscillate [36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton [37]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 25, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly. The trade volume improved but was still average [37]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of lithium carbonate increased. The supply is expected to increase, mainly driven by the increase in lithium extraction from spodumene [37]. - **Demand**: The demand is optimistic. The production schedules of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are expected to increase month - on - month [38][39]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory decreased, and the inventory of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory of other links increased [39]. - **Logic**: The market was strong. The industry is optimistic about next year, and the market sentiment is bullish. The fundamentals remain strong, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [40]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to mainly observe the market [41]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: On November 25, the spot prices of polysilicon remained unchanged [41]. - **Supply**: In November, the domestic output of polysilicon is expected to decrease to about 120,000 tons. It is expected to increase to about 123,000 tons in December [41]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is expected to decline month - on - month, and each link has an expectation of inventory accumulation [42]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased by 4000 tons to 271,000 tons, and the warehouse receipts decreased [42]. - **Logic**: The spot price is stable, the futures price oscillated and rose, and the backwardation structure deepened. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [43]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate between 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton [43]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: On November 25, the spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions remained unchanged [43]. - **Supply**: In November, the output of industrial silicon is expected to decrease to about 400,000 tons, mainly due to the production reduction in Southwest China [44]. - **Demand**: The demand is not optimistic. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decrease, while the demand for aluminum alloy is good [44]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts decreased, while the factory inventory and social inventory increased slightly [44]. - **Logic**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillated. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [45]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [45]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - **Spot**: The futures market strengthened, and the spot price followed. The basis of rebar weakened, and the basis of hot - rolled coil remained stable [45]. - **Cost and Profit**: The prices of coking coal and coke decreased, and the price of iron ore was relatively stable. The profit of steel mills was slightly repaired but is expected to remain at a low level [46]. - **Supply**: From January to October, the output of iron elements increased year - on - year. Recently, the molten iron output decreased, and the output of five major steel products increased [46]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand is weak, and the export is at a high level. The apparent demand in November increased compared to October [46]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased rapidly, and the inventory reduction is expected to continue [47]. - **View**: It is expected that the steel price will oscillate within a range. The rebar is expected to oscillate between 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil is expected to oscillate between 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton [48]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 25, the prices of mainstream iron ore
全品种价差日报-20251126
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:01
Report Date - The report date is November 26, 2025 [2] Metal Commodities Ferrous Metals - Silicon iron (SF603) has a basis of 60, a basis rate of 2.73%, and a historical quantile of 62.50%. The spot price is 5448, and the futures price is 5508 [1] - Silicon manganese (SM601) has a basis of 154, a basis rate of 54.10%, and a historical quantile of 54.20%. The spot price is 5790, and the futures price is 5636 [1] - Rebar (RB2601) has a basis of 144, a basis rate of 4.64%, and a historical quantile of 61.30%. The spot price is 3106, and the futures price is 3250 [1] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2601) has a basis of - 9, a basis rate of - 0.27%, and a historical quantile of 14.10%. The spot price is 3309, and the futures price is 3300 [1] - Iron ore (I2601) has a basis of - 19, a basis rate of - 1.14%, and a historical quantile of 52.99%. The spot price is 863, and the futures price is 879 [1] - Coke (J2601) has a basis of - 19, a basis rate of - 1.14%, and a historical quantile of 52.99%. The spot price is 1624, and the futures price is 1643 [1] - Coking coal (JM2601) has a basis of 137, a basis rate of 12.62%, and a historical quantile of 62.30%. The spot price is 1223, and the futures price is 1086 [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2601) has a basis of 10, a basis rate of 0.01%, and a historical quantile of 46.25%. The spot price is 86610, and the futures price is 86600 [1] - Aluminum (AL2601) has a basis of - 25, a basis rate of - 0.12%, and a historical quantile of 50.62%. The spot price is 21440, and the futures price is 21465 [1] - Alumina (AO2601) has a basis of - 30, a basis rate of - 0.13%, and a historical quantile of 55.83%. The spot price is 22330, and the futures price is 22360 [1] - Zinc (ZN2601) has a basis of 40, a basis rate of 0.18%, and a historical quantile of 56.82%. The spot price is 22360, and the futures price is 22320 [1] - Tin (SN2601) has a basis of - 90, a basis rate of - 0.03%, and a historical quantile of 47.08%. The spot price is 295200, and the futures price is 295290 [1] - Nickel (NI2601) has a basis of 540, a basis rate of 0.46%, and a historical quantile of 82.91%. The spot price is 116700, and the futures price is 116160 [1] - Stainless steel (SS2601) has a basis of 465, a basis rate of 3.75%, and a historical quantile of 85.40%. The spot price is 12870, and the futures price is 12405 [1] - Lithium carbonate (LC2605) has a basis of - 3350, a basis rate of - 3.51%, and a historical quantile of 14.75%. The spot price is 92050, and the futures price is 95400 [1] - Industrial silicon (SI2601) has a basis of 560, a basis rate of 6.26%, and a historical quantile of 36.89%. The spot price is 9500, and the futures price is 8940 [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2602) has a basis of 5.8, a basis rate of - 0.61%, and a historical quantile of 0.60%. The spot price is 946.5, and the futures price is 940.7 [1] - Silver (AG2602) has a basis of - 5.0, a basis rate of - 0.04%, and a historical quantile of 91.20%. The spot price is 12132.0, and the futures price is 12127.0 [1] Agricultural Commodities - Soybean meal (M2601) has a basis of 33.0, a basis rate of 1.10%, and a historical quantile of 32.80%. The spot price is 3013.0, and the futures price is 2980 [1] - Soybean oil (V2601) has a basis of 226.0, a basis rate of 2.78%, and a historical quantile of 46.20%. The spot price is 8370, and the futures price is 8144.0 [1] - Palm oil (P2601) has a basis of 20.0, a basis rate of 0.24%, and a historical quantile of 29.60%. The spot price is 8380, and the futures price is 8360.0 [1] - Rapeseed meal (RM601) has a basis of 139.0, a basis rate of 5.72%, and a historical quantile of 73.70%. The spot price is 2570, and the futures price is 2431.0 [1] - Rapeseed oil (OI601) has a basis of 342.0, a basis rate of 3.48%, and a historical quantile of 84.00%. The spot price is 10160, and the futures price is 9818.0 [1] - Corn (C2601) has a basis of 28.0, a basis rate of 1.25%, and a historical quantile of 56.10%. The spot price is 2270, and the futures price is 2242.0 [1] - Corn starch (CS2601) has a basis of 44.0, a basis rate of 1.72%, and a historical quantile of 21.40%. The spot price is 2600, and the futures price is 2556.0 [1] - Live pigs (LH2601) has a basis of 135.0, a basis rate of 1.18%, and a historical quantile of 47.80%. The spot price is 11550, and the futures price is 11415.0 [1] - Eggs (JD2601) has a basis of - 312.0, a basis rate of - 9.74%, and a historical quantile of 14.20%. The spot price is 2890, and the futures price is 3202.0 [1] - Cotton (CF601) has a basis of 954.0, a basis rate of 6.99%, and a historical quantile of 50.50%. The spot price is 14599, and the futures price is 13645.0 [1] - Sugar (SR601) has a basis of 228.0, a basis rate of 4.23%, and a historical quantile of 39.00%. The spot price is 5615, and the futures price is 5387.0 [1] - Red dates (CJ601) has a basis of - 275.0, a basis rate of - 3.00%, and a historical quantile of 76.70%. The spot price is 8900, and the futures price is 9175.0 [1] Energy and Chemical Commodities - Paraxylene (PX601) has a basis of 36.0, a basis rate of 0.54%, and a historical quantile of 35.00%. The spot price is 6754.0, and the futures price is 6718.0 [1] - PTA (TA601) has a basis of - 26.0, a basis rate of - 0.56%, and a historical quantile of 46.20%. The spot price is 4630.0, and the futures price is 4656.0 [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG2601) has a basis of 27.0, a basis rate of 0.70%, and a historical quantile of 66.40%. The spot price is 3900.0, and the futures price is 3873.0 [1] - Polyester staple fiber (PF602) has a basis of 66.0, a basis rate of 1.06%, and a historical quantile of 60.20%. The spot price is 6300.0, and the futures price is 6234.0 [1] - Styrene (EB2601) has a basis of 64.0, a basis rate of 0.99%, and a historical quantile of 43.20%. The spot price is 6510.0, and the futures price is 6446.0 [1] - Methanol (MA601) has a basis of - 7.0, a basis rate of - 0.34%, and a historical quantile of 33.50%. The spot price is 2060.0, and the futures price is 2067.0 [1] - Urea (UR601) has a basis of 0.0, a basis rate of 0.00%, and a historical quantile of 15.20%. The spot price is 1630.0, and the futures price is 1630.0 [1] - LLDPE (L2601) has a basis of 78.0, a basis rate of 1.15%, and a historical quantile of 46.20%. The spot price is 6840.0, and the futures price is 6762.0 [1] - PP (PP2601) has a basis of 153.0, a basis rate of 2.42%, and a historical quantile of 67.30%. The spot price is 6470.0, and the futures price is 6317.0 [1] - PVC (V2601) has a basis of - 31.0, a basis rate of - 0.69%, and a historical quantile of 75.20%. The spot price is 4491.0, and the futures price is 4460.0 [1] - Caustic soda (SH601) has a basis of 127.0, a basis rate of 5.65%, and a historical quantile of 68.30%. The spot price is 2375.0, and the futures price is 2248.0 [1] - LPG (PG2601) has a basis of 118.0, a basis rate of 2.79%, and a historical quantile of 37.70%. The spot price is 4348.0, and the futures price is 4230.0 [1] - Asphalt (BU2601) has a basis of - 48.0, a basis rate of - 1.56%, and a historical quantile of 42.80%. The spot price is 3068.0, and the futures price is 3020.0 [1] - Butadiene rubber (BR2601) has a basis of 130.0, a basis rate of 1.27%, and a historical quantile of 41.80%. The spot price is 10400.0, and the futures price is 10270.0 [1] - Floating glass (FG601) has a basis of - 30.0, a basis rate of - 3.05%, and a historical quantile of 66.17%. The spot price is 1014.0, and the futures price is 984.0 [1] - Soda ash (SA601) has a basis of - 30.0, a basis rate of - 2.56%, and a historical quantile of 28.99%. The spot price is 1173.0, and the futures price is 1143.0 [1] - Natural rubber (RU2601) has a basis of - 275.0, a basis rate of - 1.85%, and a historical quantile of 80.61%. The spot price is 15125.0, and the futures price is 14850.0 [1] Financial Futures - IF2512 has a basis of - 17.4, a basis rate of - 0.39%, and a historical quantile of 26.30%. The spot price is 4490.4, and the futures price is 4473.0 [1] - IH2512 has a basis of - 9.0, a basis rate of - 0.30%, and a historical quantile of 23.50%. The spot price is 2968.2, and the futures price is 2959.2 [1] - IC2512 has a basis of - 54.6, a basis rate of - 0.79%, and a historical quantile of 16.60%. The spot price is 6954.6, and the futures price is 6900.0 [1] - IM2512 has a basis of - 77.9, a basis rate of - 1.09%, and a historical quantile of 71.30%. The spot price is 7249.9, and the futures price is 7172.0 [1] - TS2603 has a basis of - 0.12, a basis rate of - 0.12%, and a historical quantile of 13.70%. The spot price is 105.97, and the futures price is 99.62 [1] - TF2603 has a basis of - 0.03, a basis rate of - 0.02%, and a historical quantile of 12.80%. The spot price is 108.24, and the futures price is 100.51 [1] - T2603 has a basis of 0.29, a basis rate of 0.25%, and a historical quantile of 40.70%. The spot price is 130.13, and the futures price is 115.28 [1]
《金融》日报-20251126
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:44
| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | 2025年11月26日 | 品种 | 暦就得 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 全历史分位数 | 价元 | | | | | | | | | | | -17.40 | 48.70% | 26.30% | F期现价差 | -4.56 | 23.50% | -2.84 | 28.60% | H期观价差 | -9.00 | 期现价差 | | | | | | | -54,60 | 13.24 | 41.30% | 16,60% | C期现价去 | -77.95 | 11.71 | 80.00% | 71.30% | INMMAR | 次月-当月 | -15.80 | 0.00 | 26.60% | 27.80% | | | 季月-当月 | 020 | -2 ...
《黑色》日报-20251126
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coils is 3250 - 3400. With the current apparent demand and production levels, inventory reduction can be maintained, but it's necessary to monitor if the current apparent demand is a pulse. Iron water production decreased by 0.6 to 236.3 tons, and production is more likely to decline than increase. Given the revised apparent demand, the inventory pressure is not significant under the weekly apparent demand of 8.74 million tons in November, and there is little need for negative feedback of iron elements [1]. Iron Ore - In the absence of new macro - drivers, it is difficult for iron ore to have an independent unilateral market. The market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias under the condition of a discounted futures price. The supply of iron ore increased last week with a significant rebound in the arrival volume at 45 ports and a recovery in the global shipment volume. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin slightly declined, the iron water volume slightly decreased, and the restocking demand increased. The production of the five major steel products increased, the inventory continued to decline seasonally, and the apparent demand rebounded significantly [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The coke futures showed an oscillating and rebounding trend during the day and a weak decline at night. The port trade quotation declined. After the fourth round of price increase was fully implemented, there is an expectation of price reduction. The supply - demand of coke has weakened, mainly due to the slowdown of downstream restocking. The strategy is to view it as oscillating and bearish, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and an arbitrage of 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [7]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures showed an oscillating and weakening trend. The spot market weakened, showing a resonance decline in futures and spot. The coal price in the Shanxi market decreased in a wider range, and the coking profit was repaired. The strategy is to view it as oscillating and bearish, with a reference range of 1050 - 1150, and an arbitrage of 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East, North, and South China increased by 10, 10, and 20 respectively compared to the previous day. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts also increased [1]. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in East, North, and South China increased by 10, 20, and 20 respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts also increased [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price remained unchanged at 2980, and slab price remained unchanged at 3730. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 22 to 3231, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 2 to 3180. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 18 to - 67, and the profit of North China hot - rolled coils increased by 18 to - 137 [1]. Supply - Daily average iron water production decreased by 0.6 to 236.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The production of the five major steel products increased by 15.5 to 849.9 tons, an increase of 1.9%. Rebar production increased by 8.0 to 208.0 tons, an increase of 4.0%, among which electric - arc furnace production decreased by 1.3 to 26.8 tons, a decrease of 4.6%, and converter production increased by 9.3 to 181.2 tons, an increase of 5.4%. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.3 to 316.0 tons, an increase of 0.7% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 44.2 to 1433.1 tons, a decrease of 3.0%. Rebar inventory decreased by 22.8 to 553.3 tons, a decrease of 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 8.4 to 402.1 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 3.0 to 10.1 tons, a decrease of 22.7%. The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased by 33.6 to 894.2 tons, an increase of 3.9%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 14.4 to 230.8 tons, an increase of 6.7%. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increased by 10.8 to 324.4 tons, an increase of 3.5% [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the basis of some varieties decreased. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 26.5, a decrease of 1.9%; the 9 - 1 spread increased by 3.0 to - 51.0, an increase of 5.6%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2.5 to 24.5, a decrease of 9.3% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increased slightly, and the new - exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe also increased [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 548.2 to 2817.1 tons, an increase of 24.2%. The weekly global shipment volume decreased by 238.0 to 3278.4 tons, a decrease of 6.8%. The monthly national import volume decreased by 500.6 to 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [4]. Demand - The weekly average daily iron water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 to 236.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The weekly average daily ore - handling volume at 45 ports increased by 3.0 to 329.9 tons, an increase of 0.9%. The monthly national pig iron production decreased by 49.7 to 6554.9 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The monthly national crude steel production decreased by 149.3 to 7199.7 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 46.9 to 15101.54 tons, an increase of 0.3%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 74.8 to 9001.2 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, a decrease of 4.8% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The 01 and 05 contracts of coke increased. The coking profit decreased by 11 to - 54 [7]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal and Mongolian No. 5 raw coal remained unchanged. The 01 contract of coking coal decreased by 11 to 1086, and the 05 contract increased by 5 to 1184. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 15 to 587 [7]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, a decrease of 0.5%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 46.2 tons. Coking coal production: The raw coal production decreased by 2.4 to 851.5 tons, a decrease of 0.3%, and the clean coal production decreased by 1.8 to 433.8 tons, a decrease of 0.4% [7]. Demand - Iron water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 to 236.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. Coke production: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, a decrease of 0.5%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 46.2 tons [7]. Inventory Changes - Coke inventory: The total coke inventory increased by 1.3 to 880.6 tons, an increase of 0.1%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 7.1 to 65.3 tons, an increase of 12.3%, the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 622.3 tons, a decrease of 0.0%, and the port inventory decreased by 5.8 to 193.0 tons, a decrease of 2.9%. Coking coal inventory: The clean coal inventory of washing plants increased by 10.4 to 98.0 tons, an increase of 11.9%, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 30.8 to 1038.2 tons, a decrease of 2.94%, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 6.9 to 797.1 tons, an increase of 0.9%, and the port inventory decreased by 7.0 to 291.5 tons, a decrease of 2.3% [7]. Supply - demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap remained at - 5.5 tons, with a change of 0.2% [7].
《能源化工》日报-20251126
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:41
Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Methanol - Short - term outlook is oscillating and slightly bullish. Inner - land marginal devices are in the red, and attention should be paid to their operation. Iranian devices are starting to limit gas and stop production, but the current shipment volume is still high [1][2]. Polyolefin - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and slight inventory depletion. PE shows supply increasing and demand decreasing, with inventory slightly accumulating under the pressure of new production capacity. The 01 contract is under relatively high pressure [6]. Natural Rubber - The market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. The inventory is in a seasonal accumulation cycle, and terminal demand support is insufficient. The price trend depends on the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [7]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. Affected by news, the geopolitical premium is declining, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the support level of Brent at $60 per barrel and the results of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term drive is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to be tight in November - December, but loose from December to the first quarter. The absolute price is relatively firm in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. - Ethylene Glycol: Expected to oscillate at a low level. - Short - fiber: The absolute price drive is limited, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to decline [11]. Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: Supply is generally loose, demand support is limited, and the price may be adjusted due to the drag of oil prices in the short term. - Styrene: Although the short - term supply - demand is expected to improve, the overall drive is limited, and the 01 contract should be treated with oscillation [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish. Although there is short - term inventory depletion, the medium - term demand is expected to remain rigid. - Glass: There is short - term rigid demand support, but there are concerns about the long - term demand, and the price may be under pressure [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand is under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. - PVC: The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is difficult to be optimistic, continuing the weak trend [15]. Summary by Directory Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 closed down, while the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 8.70%. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased, with port inventory down 4.16% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased slightly, while some downstream operating rates such as formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid increased [2]. Polyolefin - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all closed down, and the regional spreads and basis had different degrees of changes. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased to varying degrees. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, while some downstream operating rates increased slightly [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: Spot prices such as Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased, and the basis and non - standard price spread changed. - **Fundamentals**: Production in major producing countries decreased, tire production and exports decreased, and inventory increased. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased [7]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices decreased, and the spreads between different contracts also decreased. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of various refined oils decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of some polyester products decreased, and the cash flow and processing fees had different degrees of changes. - **PX - related Price and Spread**: PX prices and spreads changed, and the supply was relatively high while the demand was weak. - **PTA - related Price and Spread**: PTA prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to change in different periods. - **MEG - related Price and Spread**: MEG prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to be in a low - level oscillation. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip Price and Spread**: Short - fiber prices and spreads changed, and bottle - chip supply - demand was loose [11]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and related raw materials changed, and the spreads and import profits also changed. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: Styrene prices and spreads changed, and the cash flow improved. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories increased, and the operating rates of related industries changed [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Price and Spread**: Glass prices in different regions and futures prices had different degrees of changes. - **Soda Ash Price and Spread**: Soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed, and the inventory decreased. - **Production and Inventory**: Soda ash production decreased, and glass and soda ash inventories changed. - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas had different degrees of change [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda and their spreads changed. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rates of PVC and caustic soda supply - side and demand - side industries changed, and the inventory changed [15].
股指期货持仓日度跟踪-20251126
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:41
IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2509 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 东证多空头各减仓近 1000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2509 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 前二十席位增减仓不一 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2509 | 总持仓明显上升 | 国君空头加仓 2000 手以上 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2509 | 总持仓明显下降 | 中信多空头均减仓超 1000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格: 广发期货研究所 电 话:020-88830760 E-Mail:zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录: 股指期货: -7,796.0 -2,479.0 1,062.0 -9,330.0 -3,977.0 -977.0 5,282.0 -9,256.0 -12,000 -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 ...
《农产品》日报-20251126
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:39
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content was found in the provided reports. Core Views of the Reports Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil is expected to gradually recover after risk release, maintaining a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength. In China, Dalian palm oil futures are under pressure to decline, with an expected support level at 8200 [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil is affected by related varieties, and its short - term trend is uncertain. In China, soybean oil production has increased while demand is weak, but oil mills have a tendency to support prices. Spot basis quotes will maintain a narrow - range oscillation [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The market supply of pigs is continuously recovering, and the demand support is limited. Pig prices are expected to maintain a weak and oscillating structure. The strategy of 3 - 7 inverse spread can be continued [4]. Meal (Bean and Rapeseed Meal) - The market has fully priced in China's procurement expectations for US soybeans, and the supply of US soybeans remains loose. South American new - crop soybeans have a good planting progress. In China, the soybean meal supply is abundant, and the price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - The price of corn in the Northeast region is strong, while in the North China region, the price decline is limited. The demand side shows different inventory replenishment attitudes. The short - term supply - demand mismatch and market sentiment make the futures price strong, but attention should be paid to the pressure caused by concentrated grain sales [9]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are expected to oscillate around 14 cents per pound. In China, the new sugar in Guangxi has been launched, and the price is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern this week [13][14]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are supported by export sales reports and a weak dollar. In China, the high production of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season creates hedging pressure, but the strong basis and resilient demand support the price, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Eggs - The inventory in the production and circulation links of eggs has decreased. With egg prices below the feed cost line, the decline space is limited. As prices reach a low level, demand may gradually recover, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: On November 25, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day, with a 0.24% increase. The futures price of Y2601 was 8144 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan, a 0.30% decrease. The basis was 13.66%. The inventory of soybean oil in factories increased by 30,000 tons last weekend [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On November 25, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8370 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan, a 0.71% decrease. The futures price of P2601 was 8360 yuan/ton, down 126 yuan, a 1.48% decrease. The basis was 117.86%. The Malaysian palm oil import profit showed a certain pattern of change [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main contract of live pigs decreased by 165 yuan/ton, a 110.00% decrease. The price of LH2605 was 11995 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan, a 0.59% increase; LH2601 was 11415 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan, a 0.13% increase. The 1 - 5 spread was - 580 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan, a 10.48% decrease [4]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in various regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan showed different degrees of decline. The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 92, a 0.04% increase. The weekly white - strip price decreased by 18.42 yuan/kg, a 100.00% decrease [4]. Meal (Bean and Rapeseed Meal) - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 3013 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan, a 0.07% increase. The basis was - 13 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan, an 18.18% decrease. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's import profit from the disk increased by 20 yuan, a 333.3% increase [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2460 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan, a 0.82% increase. The futures price of RM2601 was 2431 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan, a 0.61% decrease. The basis was 29 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan, a 583.33% increase [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of C2601 was 2242 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan, a 0.99% increase. The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port was 2270 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan, a 0.89% increase. The basis was 28 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan, a 6.67% decrease. The 1 - 5 spread was - 21 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan, a 52.27% increase [9]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2556 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan, a 0.83% increase. The spot price in Changchun was 2560 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 21 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan, an 84.00% decrease [9]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of SR2601 was 5387 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan, a 0.32% increase. The price of SR2605 was 5325 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan, a 0.11% increase. The 1 - 5 spread was 62 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan, a 21.57% increase [13]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming were 5450 yuan/ton and 5440 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged. The import price of Brazilian sugar (within the quota) was 4097 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan, a 0.59% increase [13]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of CF2605 was 13580 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan, a 0.37% increase. The price of CF2601 was 13645 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan, a 0.44% increase. The 5 - 1 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, an 18.18% decrease [15]. - **Spot**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton at the factory was 14599 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan, a 0.17% increase. The CC Index: 3128B was 14832 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan, a 0.26% increase [15]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of JD12 was 2950 yuan/500KG, down 42 yuan, a 1.42% decrease. The price of JD01 was 3210 yuan/500KG, down 8 yuan, a 0.25% decrease. The 12 - 01 spread was - 294 yuan/500KG, down 34 yuan, a 13.08% decrease [18]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.91 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan, a 1.11% increase. The egg - chicken chick price was 2.70 yuan/feather, down 0.10 yuan, a 3.57% decrease [18].