异动点评：美联储降息预期反转贵金属重拾涨势 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格编号：Z0016628） | 2025年FOMC票委派别 | 官员最新观点 | | --- | --- | | 台灣成 | 米兰:数据支持降息,美联储应更加偏鸽 | | | 沃勒：支持在美联储12月会议上再次"预防性"降息25个BP | | | 鲍曼:支持继续降息以应对劳动力市场放缓及经济增长趋弱的局势 | | 障 科成 | 施密德：认为进一步的降息对缓解劳动力市场的任何压力作用不大，这些压力更可能来自技术和移民政策的 | | | 结构件变化, 但降息可能对通胀产生更持久的影响 | | | 穆萨莱姆:随着政策利率接近中性利率,美联储需要保持谨慎 | | | 古尔斯比：或许不愿继续降息周期，在通胀数据缺席的情况下对降息更感不安，需要保持谨慎 | | 中间派 | 鲍威尔:12月降息并非既定结论,受美国政府持续停摆影响,数据获取受限存在不确定性 | | | 威廉姆斯：美联储 "石坑期"仍有进一步下调联邦基金利率区间的空间,以使政策立场更接近中性水平。就 | | | 业走弱的风险上升,而通胀恶化的风险已 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The domestic stock index shows resilience, with the A - share market in a repricing adjustment after the third - quarter reports, having short - term fluctuations and limited downside risks [2]. - The bond market is in a box - shaped oscillation phase, with specific interest rate ranges for different bonds and corresponding trading strategies [2]. - Precious metals are strengthening due to increased calls for interest rate cuts within the Fed, with gold and silver having specific price ranges and trading suggestions [2]. - Various commodities such as steel, iron ore, coal, and non - ferrous metals have different price trends and trading recommendations based on their supply - demand fundamentals [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: After the third - quarter reports, the A - share market is in adjustment, with short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see as the market is in a weak state overall [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - term bond market is in a box - shaped oscillation. The 10 - year and 30 - year active bond yields have specific fluctuation ranges. Single - side strategies suggest range operations, and short - position investors are advised to speed up the position - shifting process near the end of the month [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is oscillating between $4000 - $4150, and may rise above $4200 if it breaks through the resistance. Silver's resistance is at $52.5, and short - term long - position trials can be made if the volatility increases [2]. Commodities - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to oscillate upward in the short term, and short positions are advised to be closed [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are expected to stabilize with improved apparent demand. Iron ore is expected to oscillate upward in the range of 750 - 810 [2]. - **Coal and Coking**: Coking coal is viewed as oscillating downward in the range of 1050 - 1150, and coke is also oscillating downward in the range of 1550 - 1700, with a strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper prices are oscillating narrowly in the range of 85500 - 86800. Aluminum prices may have further downward space if the position continues to be reduced. Other non - ferrous metals also have their respective price ranges and trends [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different energy and chemical products such as PTA, short - fiber, and ethanol have various price trends and trading strategies based on their supply - demand situations [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products like soybeans, corn, and palm oil also have different price trends and trading suggestions according to their supply - demand fundamentals [2].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Last week, the log futures remained in a low - level oscillation, and the spot price decreased. The supply side saw a continuous increase in arrivals, inventory accumulated, and the market was under significant pressure. Demand continued to show resilience. The current valuation of the futures was relatively low, and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices provided some support for import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures. Overall, in the context of a weak fundamental situation, the log futures are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 24th, compared with November 21st, the price of log 2601 was 768.0, down 0.5 or - 0.07%; log 2603 was 779.0, up 1.5 or 0.19%; log 2605 was 795.0, up 1.5 or 0.19%. The 01 - 03 spread was - 11.0, down 2.0; the 01 - 05 spread was - 27.0, down 2.0; the 03 - contract basis was - 29.0, down 1.5; the 01 - contract basis was - 18.0, up 0.5 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on November 24th compared with November 21st. The CFR prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter also remained unchanged [2]. - **Import Cost**: On November 24th, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.106, down 0.01 or 0% compared with November 23rd; the import theoretical cost was 810.19, down 0.83 or 0% [2]. Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In October, the port shipment volume was 201.3 million cubic meters, up 24.7 million cubic meters or 13.99% compared with September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54.0, up 8.0 or 17.39% [2]. - **Inventory**: As of November 21st, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 303 million cubic meters, up 8 million cubic meters or 2.71% compared with November 14th. In Shandong, it was 206.5 million cubic meters, up 11.1 million cubic meters or 5.68%; in Jiangsu, it was 83.18 million cubic meters, down 0.5 million cubic meters or - 0.57% [2][3]. Demand - As of November 21st, the daily average出库 volume of logs in China was 6.44 million cubic meters, down 0.12 million cubic meters or - 2% compared with November 14th. In Shandong, it was 3.59 million cubic meters, down 0.08 million cubic meters; in Jiangsu, it was 2.36 million cubic meters, down 0.08 million cubic meters [3]. Forecast of Arrivals - From November 24th to November 30th, 2025, the number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 6, 7 less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 54%; the total arrival volume was about 21.7 million cubic meters, 20.1 million cubic meters less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 48% [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided on industry investment ratings in the given reports. Core Views Methanol - The inland market is expected to see a continuous increase in production, with marginal devices in the red. The market sentiment has improved due to some Iranian devices starting to limit gas and stop production, leading to a significant strengthening of the disk, with both price and basis rising. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the time and intensity of gas limitation [1]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rebounded due to the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in December and the ongoing difficulties in Russia - Ukraine negotiations. However, under the pressure of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and a record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern remains weak. In the short term, Brent crude oil is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 66 per barrel, and attention should be paid to the results of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [5]. Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and a slight reduction in inventory. PE shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with inventory slightly accumulating under the pressure of new production capacity. The 01 contract is still under significant pressure [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash has an overall surplus pattern, with reduced production this week and phased inventory reduction at factories. In the medium term, demand is expected to remain rigid, and there may be further pressure on supply - demand without actual production capacity exit or load reduction. Glass has seen a short - term rebound in the market due to the shutdown of some production lines in Hubei, but in the medium - to - long term, demand is expected to decline, and the industry still needs to clear production capacity to solve the surplus problem [9]. Styrene - Pure benzene has new production capacity and device restarts, with overall supply remaining loose. Demand support is limited, and port inventories are rising. In the short term, the price may be adjusted due to the drag of oil prices. Styrene has limited supply and improved downstream procurement, but demand support is expected to be limited. The rebound space is restricted, and the short - term EB01 is expected to fluctuate [10]. Natural Rubber - Supply is supported by cost, but inventory is accumulating seasonally, and terminal demand is weak. It is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation, and attention should be paid to raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda has supply - demand pressure, with expected weakening prices. PVC has a weak spot market, with supply increasing and demand remaining sluggish. The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and prices are expected to continue to decline at the bottom [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX has a short - term weak supply - demand situation but strong mid - term support. PTA has a short - term tight supply - demand situation but a loose mid - term outlook. Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Short - fiber has a weak supply - demand situation, and bottle - chip has a loose supply - demand pattern [13]. LPG - No clear overall view is provided in the given LPG report, but price and inventory data are presented [15]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices increased, with the MA15 spread and Taicang basis changing. Regional spreads also showed significant changes. For example, the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 475% [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased, with decreases of 2.86%, 4.16%, and 3.91% respectively [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rates decreased slightly, while overseas enterprise operating rates increased slightly. Downstream, the operating rate of externally - purchased MTO devices remained unchanged, and the formaldehyde operating rate increased [1]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased, while SC crude oil prices decreased. Product oil prices and spreads also showed various changes, such as the RBOB price increasing and the ULSD price decreasing [5]. - **Product Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of various product oils showed different trends, with some decreasing and some increasing [5]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and other contract prices changed slightly. Spreads such as L15 and PP15 increased [8]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, while PP powder operating rates increased [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: Glass and soda ash futures and spot prices changed, with glass 2601 prices increasing and soda ash 2601 and 2605 prices also rising slightly [9]. - **Operating Rates and Production**: Soda ash operating rates and weekly production decreased, while the photovoltaic daily melting volume increased slightly [9]. - **Inventory**: Glass and soda ash inventories showed different trends, with glass warehouse inventories increasing and soda ash factory and delivery warehouse inventories decreasing [9]. Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased, and prices of raw materials such as CFR Japan naphtha and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene changed [10]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [10]. - **Industrial Chain Operating Rates**: Operating rates of various links in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [10]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: Spot prices of natural rubber such as Yunnan state - owned standard rubber increased, and the full - cream basis also increased [11]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in major producing countries and regions changed, and tire production, export, and import volumes decreased [11]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area and futures warehouse inventories of natural rubber increased [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: PVC and caustic soda futures and spot prices changed, with PVC futures prices increasing and caustic soda prices decreasing [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda and PVC supply and demand showed different trends, with caustic soda having supply - demand pressure and PVC having an oversupply situation [12]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda and PVC inventories changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed, and cash flows also showed different trends [13]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX prices increased slightly, and various spreads changed [13]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA spot and futures prices increased, and the basis and processing fees changed [13]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: MEG spot and futures prices increased, and the basis and cash flows changed [13]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: LPG futures prices decreased, and spreads such as PG12 - 01 and PG12 - 02 changed [15]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio remained stable, while port inventory and storage capacity ratio increased [15]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream refinery operating rates decreased, and downstream PDH and MTBE operating rates decreased, while the alkylation operating rate increased [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil may face further downward pressure due to bearish fundamentals, and there is a risk of a new round of selling in Malaysian palm oil. Dalian palm oil futures are expected to continue to weaken. - CBOT soybeans are in a rebound after overselling, and domestic soybean oil is supported by high - cost imports despite sufficient supply and weak demand [1]. Meal - The market has priced in China's procurement expectations, and the supply - demand of US soybeans remains loose. South American new - crop soybeans have a good planting progress, and the supply pressure continues to be released. Domestic soybean meal is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [2]. Corn - Corn prices are affected by the rhythm of supply. In the short - term, the futures price is strong due to supply - demand mismatch and firm spot prices, but the subsequent selling pressure may limit the increase [5]. Pork - The supply of pigs continues to recover, and the overall supply remains abundant. Although local demand is supported by pickling in the southwest, the spot price is not optimistic. Pig prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held [10]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are expected to oscillate around 14 cents per pound. The listing of new sugar in Guangxi has led the futures price to weaken, and the market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation this week [13]. Cotton - Internationally, the global cotton supply is in a loose pattern. Domestically, the high production of Xinjiang cotton brings hedging pressure, but the firm basis and resilient demand support the cotton price. In the short - term, cotton prices may oscillate within a range [14]. Eggs - The demand for eggs is weak, and there is a risk of price decline in some areas. However, prices are near the feed cost line, and the decline space is limited. Egg prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices and Basis**: Compared with November 21, on November 24, the spot price of Jiangsu - grade 1 soybean oil increased by 20 yuan to 8490 yuan; the futures price of Y2601 decreased by 22 yuan to 8168 yuan; the basis increased by 42 yuan to 322 yuan. For palm oil, the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree decreased by 40 yuan to 8430 yuan; the futures price of P2601 decreased by 64 yuan to 8486 yuan; the basis increased by 24 yuan to - 56 yuan. For rapeseed oil, the spot price of Jiangsu - grade 3 increased by 20 yuan to 10190 yuan; the futures price of OI601 decreased by 38 yuan to 9778 yuan; the basis increased by 58 yuan to 412 yuan [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2 yuan to 206 yuan; the palm oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 28 yuan to - 90 yuan; the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 35 yuan to 356 yuan [1]. Meal - **Prices and Basis**: On November 25, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained at 3000 yuan; the futures price of M2601 decreased by 1 yuan to 3011 yuan; the basis increased by 1 yuan to - 11 yuan. For rapeseed meal, the spot price of Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 2440 yuan; the futures price of RM2601 increased by 12 yuan to 2446 yuan; the basis increased by 5 yuan to - 6 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 01 - 05 spread decreased by 13 yuan to 196 yuan; the rapeseed meal 01 - 05 spread decreased by 3 yuan to 61 yuan [2]. Corn - **Prices and Indexes**: On November 25, the futures price of Corn 2601 increased by 25 yuan to 2220 yuan; the basis increased by 5 yuan to 30 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 13 yuan to - 44 yuan. For corn starch, the futures price of Corn Starch 2601 increased by 23 yuan to 2535 yuan; the basis decreased by 23 yuan to 25 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 yuan to - 64 yuan [5]. Pork - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The basis of the main contract decreased by 200 yuan to 150 yuan; the futures price of Live Hogs 2605 increased by 65 yuan to 11925 yuan; the futures price of Live Hogs 2601 increased by 50 yuan to 11400 yuan. Spot prices fluctuated in different regions [10]. - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume decreased by 1173 to 205889; the weekly piglet price increased by 0.3 yuan to 17.5 yuan per kilogram; the monthly number of fertile sows decreased by 30,000 to 40.35 million [10]. Sugar - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On November 25, the futures price of Sugar 2601 increased by 17 yuan to 5370 yuan; the basis of Nanning decreased by 47 yuan to 131 yuan; the basis of Kunming decreased by 47 yuan to 121 yuan [13]. - **Industry Data**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons to 1.11621 billion tons; the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 88 million tons to 1.048 billion tons; the national industrial sugar inventory decreased by 47.79 million tons to 68.21 million tons [13]. Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures price of Cotton 2605 increased by 82 yuan to 13530 yuan; the futures price of Cotton 2601 increased by 125 yuan to 13585 yuan; the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 40 yuan to - 55 yuan [14]. - **Industry Data**: The commercial inventory increased by 70.91 million tons to 363.97 million tons; the industrial inventory increased by 4.32 million tons to 93.14 million tons; the import volume decreased by 1 million tons to 9 million tons [14]. Eggs - **Prices and Indexes**: The futures price of Egg 12 - contract increased by 16 yuan to 2950 yuan per 500 kg; the futures price of Egg 01 - contract decreased by 26 yuan to 3184 yuan per 500 kg; the basis increased by 43 yuan to - 302 yuan per 500 kg [17]. - **Industry Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks decreased by 0.1 yuan to 2.7 yuan per chick; the price of culled chickens decreased by 0.16 yuan to 3.88 yuan per catty; the egg - feed ratio increased by 0.06 to 2.4 [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views of the Report Tin - Short - term macro fluctuations are large, but considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and monitor macro changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [3]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure has eased, and the demand side has shown a structural improvement. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 22,200 - 22,800 [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom. Pay attention to macro drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract reference range of 85,500 - 86,800 [9]. Nickel - The macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. However, the price may fluctuate and recover due to upstream production cuts and low valuations. The medium - term supply surplus still restricts the upside potential. The main contract reference range is 116,000 - 120,000 [13]. Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, the cost support is weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to be weak, with the main contract reference range of 12,200 - 12,600 [15][16]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [18]. Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand are both decreasing, and there is a pressure for inventory accumulation. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price is expected to maintain a weak oscillating adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 86,000 - 90,000 [20]. Polysilicon - Maintain the expectation of high - level range oscillations. For futures, consider going long around 50,000; for options, hold or close sell put positions, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [22]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices increased by 0.76% and 0.75% respectively. The LME 0 - 3 spread rose by 0.71%. The import loss decreased by 3.21%. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, refined tin imports decreased by 58.55%, and exports decreased by 15.33%. The average SMM refined tin operating rate increased by 53.23% [2]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory decreased by 0.46%, social inventory increased by 2.83%, SHEF warrants decreased by 0.37%, and LME inventory remained unchanged [3]. Zinc - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot prices decreased by 0.27%. Some month - to - month spreads decreased. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85%, imports decreased by 16.94%, and exports increased by 243.79%. The operating rates of some primary processing industries changed slightly [7]. - **Inventory**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 3.58%, and LME inventory increased by 0.21% [7]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper and other copper prices increased slightly. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62%, and imports decreased by 15.61%. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased, while that of recycled copper rod production decreased [9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 8.80%, and some other inventories changed slightly [9]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: Prices of various nickel products increased slightly. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 3.38%, and the import loss increased by 5.36% [13]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel decreased by 4.84%, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte production increased by 3.75% [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84%, imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.92%, and social inventory decreased by 1.61% [13]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some stainless steel products decreased slightly. Some month - to - month spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72%, and exports decreased by 14.43% [15]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory and SHFE inventory decreased slightly [15]. Aluminum - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum prices decreased by 0.09%. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production increased by 2.39%, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52%, imports increased by 0.61%, and exports decreased by 15.18% [17]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 5.11%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.37% [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained stable in most regions. Some month - to - month spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and that of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06% [18]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.44%, and some daily inventories decreased [18]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of various industrial silicon products decreased slightly. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [19]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46%, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang. Exports decreased by 35.82% [19]. - **Inventory**: Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 4.42%, and social inventory increased by 0.37% [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased slightly. Some month - to - month spreads decreased significantly [20]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73%, demand increased by 8.70%, imports increased by 21.86%, and exports increased by 63.05% [20]. - **Inventory**: Total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 10.90%, downstream inventory decreased by 13.50%, and smelter inventory decreased by 6.03% [20]. Polysilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: Polysilicon spot prices stabilized with a slight decrease, silicon wafer prices decreased, and component prices increased slightly. The futures price oscillated, and the spread structure was in a backwardation [22]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 1.12%, and monthly production increased by 3.08%. Imports increased by 11.96%, and exports decreased by 27.99% [22]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.50%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.63%. Polysilicon warrants decreased by 3.07% [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided documents do not contain information about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping index, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market trends, influencing factors, and offers corresponding operation suggestions for each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market showed a bottom - rebound, with the TMT sector warming up. The four major stock index futures contracts rose and fell differently, and the basis discount was repaired. Due to the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest - rate cut decision and the market being in a re - pricing adjustment, it is recommended to wait and see [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The funds were looser, and the Treasury bond futures continued to fluctuate narrowly. The short - term bond market is in a box - shock stage. It is recommended to operate within the range and for short - position investors to speed up the position - shifting pace [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The voices in the Fed supporting interest - rate cuts increased, and precious metals strengthened. In the medium - long term, the bull market of precious metals will continue, but short - term market fluctuations may intensify. Gold is expected to fluctuate between 4000 - 4150 dollars, and silver is recommended to go long lightly if it rises [7][9][10]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **EC**: The spot market is cold, but the SCFIS European line index rose sharply after the market, so it is expected to rise slightly in the short term [11]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The interest - rate cut expectation is uncertain, and the copper price fluctuates narrowly. The medium - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the copper price, and the main contract is recommended to be in the range of 85500 - 86800 [12][15]. - **Alumina**: The market fluctuates at a low level, and the supply contraction and inventory accumulation slowdown indicate that the market's worst over - supply pressure may be approaching the end. The main contract is expected to operate between 2700 - 2850 [15][17]. - **Aluminum**: There is a confrontation between strong expectations and weak reality, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The main contract is recommended to be in the range of 21100 - 21700 [17][19]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price follows the adjustment of the aluminum price, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20300 - 20900 [19][21]. - **Zinc**: The supply reduction expectation provides support, and the zinc price fluctuates. The main contract is recommended to be in the range of 22200 - 22800 [22][25]. - **Tin**: The supply side remains tight, and the tin price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips [25][29]. - **Nickel**: The price repairs upward from a low level, driven by upstream production cuts and low valuations. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 116000 - 120000 [29][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price fluctuates weakly, with raw materials under pressure and insufficient demand. The main contract is recommended to be in the range of 12200 - 12600 [33][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment cools down, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [36][39]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price fluctuates. It is recommended to go long around 50000, and hold or close the sell - put option [40][41]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price falls, and the futures price fluctuates. The main price is expected to fluctuate between 8500 - 9500 [42][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand recovers, and the steel price is expected to stabilize. The rebar is recommended to be in the range of 3000 - 3200, and the hot - rolled coil is recommended to be in the range of 3250 - 3400 [44][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipping and arrival increased, the port inventory decreased, and the iron ore price fluctuates upward. The futures price is expected to fluctuate upward under the discount [51][53]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal in the origin decreased, and the demand for replenishment was bearish. It is recommended to view it as a weak - side shock, with the range of 1050 - 1150, and recommend the arbitrage of going long on coke and short on coking coal [54][57]. - **Coke**: After the fourth price increase, there is an expectation of a price cut. It is recommended to view it as a weak - side shock, with the range of 1550 - 1700, and recommend the arbitrage of going long on coke and short on coking coal [58][63]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the cost side lacks substantial benefits. The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market changed, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles of various commodities across multiple sectors including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemicals, and financial products on November 25, 2025. It offers a comprehensive snapshot of the market conditions for these commodities [1]. 3. Summary by Sector Ferrous Metals - **Silicon - based Alloys**: For 72 - silicon ferro - alloy, the spot price is 5508, the futures price is 5456, and the basis rate is 2.84%. For 6517 - silicon manganese, the spot price is 5630 [1]. - **Steel Products**: The spot price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3240, and for Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai, it is 3290. The futures prices of rebar (RB2601) and hot - rolled coil (HC2601) are 3089 and 3562 respectively [1]. - **Iron Ore and Coking Coal**: The spot price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) at Rizhao Port is 791, and its futures price is 858. The spot price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi is 1223, and the futures price is 1097 [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper is 86080, the futures price is 86532, and the basis rate is 0.18% [1]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: The spot price of SMM A00 aluminum is 21360, and the futures price is 21380. The spot price of alumina is 2834, and the futures price is 2736 [1]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: Zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel also have their respective spot and futures prices and basis rates presented in the report [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The spot price of gold (AU2602) is 925.8, and the futures price is 930.3. The spot price of silver (AG2602) is 11808.0, and the futures price is 11827.0 [1]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The spot price of common protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 2980, and the futures price is 3011.0. The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 8370, and the futures price is 8168.0 [1]. - **Grain and Livestock**: The spot price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2250, and the futures price is 2220.0. The spot price of live pigs (outer ternary) in Henan is 11400.0, and the futures price is 11550 [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Petrochemicals**: The spot price of p - xylene at Chinese main ports is 6772.0, and the futures price is 6765.0. The spot price of PTA in East China is 4680.0, and the futures price is 4630.0 [1]. - **Plastics and Rubbers**: The spot price of LLDPE in Shandong is 6840.0, and the futures price is 6793.0. The spot price of butadiene rubber is 10395.0, and the futures price is 10700.0 [1]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: For IF2512.CFE, the spot price is 4435.2, and the futures price is 4448.0. For IH2512.CFE, the spot price is 2944.4, and the futures price is 2950.6 [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The spot price of 2 - year treasury bonds (TS2512) is 100.02, and the futures price is 102.42. The spot price of 5 - year treasury bonds (TF2512) is 99.57, and the futures price is 105.89 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol Industry - The inland market will see a continuous increase in production. The marginal devices in the inland area are in a loss - making state. The market sentiment has improved due to some Iranian devices starting to shut down due to gas restrictions. The price and basis have both strengthened. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [1]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rebounded due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the unsuccessful Russia - Ukraine negotiations. However, under the pressure of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern of crude oil remains weak. Brent crude oil is expected to fluctuate in the range of $60 - 66 per barrel in the short term [5]. Polyolefin Industry - For PP, there is a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. The supply has recovered due to fewer maintenance, and the inventory has decreased slightly. For PE, there is a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand. Although the unplanned maintenance eases some supply pressure, the imported goods are abundant, and the demand is generally weak. The 01 contract is still under great pressure [8]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash has an overall surplus pattern. The weekly production has declined due to some devices reducing their loads, and the soda ash factories have reduced their inventory stage by stage. In the medium term, the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. The supply - demand situation will be further pressured without actual capacity withdrawal or load reduction. Glass has a short - term positive performance driven by cold - repair benefits, but in the long term, it is still under pressure due to the weakening demand and the surplus pattern [9]. Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, the supply is generally loose, and the demand support is limited. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the supply - demand expectation is generally loose. The price may be adjusted due to the drag of oil prices in the short term. For styrene, the supply of goods is limited, and the demand support is expected to be limited. The rebound space is restricted [10]. Natural Rubber Industry - The supply cost is strongly supported, but the inventory is increasing seasonally, and the terminal demand support is insufficient. The downstream enterprise's operating rate is expected to decline further. The natural rubber market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda has certain supply - demand pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. PVC has a surplus supply - demand pattern, and the price is expected to continue the weak trend at the bottom [12]. Polyester Industry - PX has limited short - term drive but strong medium - term support. PTA's supply - demand expectation has been significantly repaired, but the rebound space is limited. Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Short - fiber's supply - demand is weak, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. Bottle - chip's supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to decline [13]. LPG Industry - The LPG price has declined, the inventory has increased, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries have changed. The overall market situation needs further attention [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices increased, with increases of 3.64% and 2.81% respectively. The regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 475.00% [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all decreased, with decreases of 2.86%, 4.16%, and 3.91% respectively [1]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises decreased by 0.38%, while that of overseas upstream enterprises increased by 0.30%. The operating rate of downstream MTO devices remained unchanged [1]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased, with increases of 1.29% and 1.34% respectively. The refined oil cracking spreads of different regions showed different changes [5]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and other contracts increased to varying degrees. The L15 and PP15 spreads increased by 14.75% and 12.82% respectively [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.51%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.60% [8]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, with decreases of 4.89% and 4.23% respectively [8]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Price and Spread**: Glass 2601 price increased by 2.63%, and soda ash 2601 and 2605 prices increased by 1.11% and 1.20% respectively [9]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The soda ash operating rate decreased by 4.85%, and the weekly production decreased by 4.86%. The float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.98% [9]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 2.15%, and the soda ash factory's inventory decreased by 0.93% [9]. Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased. The price of styrene's EB2601 decreased by 1.1% [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports increased by 11.6% and 10.7% respectively [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1.7%, and the styrene operating rate decreased by 0.4% [10]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Price and Spread**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber increased by 1.36%, and the full - latex basis increased by 24.49% [11]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: The production of natural rubber in some regions decreased, and the operating rates of automobile tire factories decreased [11]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory and the warehouse - receipt inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE increased by 3.60% and 1.01% respectively [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Price and Spread**: The price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda decreased by 2.6%, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.5% [12]. - **Operating Rate**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.6%, and the PVC total operating rate increased by 1.0% [12]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China and Shandong increased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 2.1% [12]. Polyester Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some polyester products such as POY150/48 decreased, and the price of CFR China PX increased by 0.2% [13]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.5%, and the PTA operating rate decreased by 4.8% [13]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory remained unchanged, and the arrival expectation decreased by 14.4% [13]. LPG Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts such as PG2512 and PG2601 decreased. The PG12 - 01 spread increased by 21.67% [15]. - **Inventory**: The LPG port inventory increased by 6.28%, and the port storage - capacity ratio increased by 6.29% [15]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased by 3.35%, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased by 2.93% [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Tin - Short - term macro fluctuations are large, but considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and monitor macro changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [3]. Zinc - The downward pressure on the domestic supply side has eased. The price is likely to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 22,200 - 22,800 [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom. Pay attention to macro drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract reference range of 85,500 - 86,800 [9]. Nickel - The macro situation is stable, and the fundamentals are weak. However, due to upstream production cuts and low valuations, the price may fluctuate and recover. In the medium term, the supply glut restricts the upside potential, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000 [13]. Stainless Steel - Policy - driven factors are difficult to have an immediate impact. The cost support is weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to be weak, with the main contract reference range of 12,200 - 12,600 [15][16]. Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [18]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The market is likely to face inventory accumulation pressure in November, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term market may maintain a weak and oscillating adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 86,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [20]. Polysilicon - The price is expected to remain in a high - level range oscillation, maintaining a forward market structure. For trading strategies, consider going long around 50,000 yuan/ton in the futures market and holding or closing profitable positions for sell put options in the options market [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin increased by 0.76% to 293,500 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spread rose by 0.71% to 95.67 dollars/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49% to 11,632 tons, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16,090 tons [2]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory decreased by 0.46% to 6,229 tons, while social inventory increased by 2.83% to 7,654 tons [3]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.27% to 22,380 yuan/ton, and the import loss was 4,280 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons, and the export volume increased by 243.79% to 0.85 million tons [7]. - **Inventory**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 3.58% to 15.10 million tons, and LME inventory increased by 0.21% to 4.7 million tons [7]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.49% to 86,235 yuan/ton, and the import loss was 858 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 15.61% to 28.21 million tons [9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 8.80% to 70.49 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 1.09% to 11.06 million tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.90% to 117,750 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 3.57% to 4,350 yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrolytic nickel decreased by 4.84% to 110,810 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased by 1.92% to 39,795 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.18% to 253,482 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,700 yuan/ton, and the futures - spot spread decreased by 7.76% to 235 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 14.43% to 35.81 million tons [15]. - **Inventory**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.89% to 49.29 million tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 0.83% to 6.44 million tons [15]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.09% to 21,360 yuan/ton, and the import loss was 1,868 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons [17]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 5.11% to 61.30 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.37% to 54.6 million tons [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,350 yuan/ton, and the Foshan broken primary aluminum scrap - to - refined spread remained unchanged at 1,749 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 7.06% to 7.64 million tons [18]. - **Inventory**: The regenerated aluminum alloy weekly social inventory increased by 1.44% to 5.65 million tons [18]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spreads**: The price of industrial silicon decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 100% to 0 [19]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 35.82% to 4.51 million tons [19]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased by 0.37% to 54.80 million tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.02% to 20.76 million tons [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.16% to 92,150 yuan/ton, and the lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 1.65% to 1,071 dollars/ton [20]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% to 92,260 tons, and the demand increased by 8.70% to 126,961 tons [20]. - **Inventory**: The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 10.90% to 84,234 tons in October [20]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spreads**: The N - type polysilicon spot price decreased by 0.10% to 52,250 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract decreased by 0.08% to 23,315 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 1.12% to 2.71 million tons, and the import volume increased by 11.96% to 0.14 million tons in October [22]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.50% to 27.10 million tons, and the polysilicon warehouse receipt decreased by 3.07% to 7,270 [22].