1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil in Malaysia is expected to have a record - high production in 2025, pressuring the benchmark price. However, Indonesia's B85 policy provides support. Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise in the short - term but could face resistance below 9000 yuan. For soybeans, the US soybean production cut in the USDA report was less than expected, causing CBOT soybeans to decline. In China, soybean oil inventory is at a high level, and downstream demand is weak, with a possible short - term correction for Dalian soybean oil [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance due to factors like farmers' reluctance to sell and transportation issues, leading to a price rebound. But considering the large supply during the new - season harvest, the upward movement is limited, and attention should be paid to the 2200 - 2220 pressure level [3]. 2.3 Sugar - India's sugar export in the 25/26 season may face short - term difficulties, and Brazil's supply is in a relaxed state. The raw sugar price is expected to fluctuate around 14 cents/pound. The domestic sugar market is likely to remain volatile next week [7][8]. 2.4 Cotton - The 11 - month USDA report is bearish for cotton. Globally, production has increased, and demand has only slightly risen, leading to an increase in ending inventory. In China, new cotton supply is high in the short - term, and downstream demand is weak, but some local products offer support. Short - term cotton prices may be under pressure [9]. 2.5 Meal - The USDA's November supply - demand balance sheet for soybeans met market expectations. There is a lack of substantial positive factors for US soybeans, and China's high soybean inventory and reserve rotation expectations suppress the market. Bean meal is expected to trade in a wide range [11]. 2.6 Eggs - The supply of eggs remains high due to stable laying - hen inventory, and demand is in a seasonal slump. Although the decline in egg prices has slowed, the market is expected to be weak and volatile this week [15]. 2.7 Pigs - The spot price of pigs is weak, but the market may strengthen tomorrow. The overall November pig - selling progress is slow, which may support prices. The market is in a range - bound pattern, with limited upside and downside in the short - term. A 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [17]. 3. Summary by Industry 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 14, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8590 yuan, up 0.35% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8256 yuan, down 0.72%. The basis of Y2601 increased by 36.89% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8590 yuan, up 0.23%. The futures price of P2601 was 8644 yuan, down 1.23%. The basis of P2601 increased by 70.33%. The import cost and profit decreased [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10290 yuan, up 0.29%. The futures price of OI601 was 9923 yuan, down 0.52%. The basis of OI601 increased by 28.77% [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 at Jinzhou Port fluctuated. The basis increased by 78.57%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.63%. The import profit increased by 5.00% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased slightly. The basis increased by 66.67%. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged, and the starch - corn 01 spread decreased by 0.31% [3]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 decreased by 0.76%, and sugar 2605 decreased by 0.53%. ICE raw sugar increased by 2.91%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 16.46% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The basis in Nanning and Kunming increased. The import prices of Brazilian sugar decreased [7]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, while the national sales rate decreased. The industrial inventory in some regions increased [7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.19%, and cotton 2601 decreased by 0.30%. ICE US cotton decreased by 0.68%. The 5 - 1 spread increased by 300.00% [9]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Xinjiang and the CC Index decreased slightly. The basis increased [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory, import volume, and some other indicators increased, while textile exports decreased [9]. 3.5 Meal - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.33%, and the futures price of M2601 increased by 0.68%. The basis decreased by 52.38%. The import crushing margin decreased significantly [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the futures price of RM2601 decreased slightly. The basis increased by 25.00% [11]. - **Soybeans**: The price of the soybean No.1 futures contract increased by 2.08%, and the soybean No.2 futures contract increased by 0.37%. The basis of both decreased [11]. 3.6 Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 12 - contract decreased by 0.23%, and the 01 - contract decreased by 0.92%. The 12 - 01 spread increased by 10.22% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.34%. The basis decreased by 6.54% [15]. - **Related Indicators**: Egg - chick prices remained unchanged, and the egg - feed ratio decreased. The breeding profit decreased [15]. 3.7 Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the pig 2605 decreased by 0.33%, and the 2601 decreased by 0.72%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 12.00%. The basis increased by 103.57% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions fluctuated. The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.74% [17]. - **Related Indicators**: The weekly white - strip price remained unchanged, and the piglet price increased slightly. The self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Methanol - The methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. The inventory issue for the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue until Iran restricts gas supply [1]. LLDPE & PP - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and a slight inventory build - up under new capacity pressure. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with abundant imported goods and weakening demand except for agricultural films. Suggest to gradually stop losses and reduce positions for previous short positions as the market is still in an oversupply situation [5]. Natural Rubber - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. Supply - side factors may keep raw material prices high, while demand is weak. The market is in a seasonal inventory accumulation period, and if raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further price decline; otherwise, prices may range between 15000 - 15500 [7]. Glass & Soda Ash - Soda ash has a large - scale oversupply situation. Although the spot has rebounded recently, the long - term outlook is bearish. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. Glass sales have weakened recently, and although there is short - term demand support, the long - term outlook is also bearish due to the real - estate situation [9]. PVC & Caustic Soda - Caustic soda has supply - demand pressure, with weak demand from the main downstream alumina industry. Its price is expected to oscillate weakly. PVC is in an oversupply situation, with supply remaining high and demand weakening, and its price is expected to continue to be weak [10]. Crude Oil - The crude oil market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Although recent news has supported prices, the upward space is limited due to OPEC+ production increase pressure and high US inventories. Brent crude may trade in the range of 60 - 66 dollars per barrel [11]. Ester Industry Chain - PX supply is relatively high, and although there is short - term demand support, the rebound is expected to be limited. PTA is expected to be in a tight balance in November but loose from December to Q1 next year, with limited price rebound space. Ethylene glycol is facing inventory build - up pressure. Short - fiber has a weak supply - demand outlook, and bottle - chip supply - demand is loose [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 closed down on November 14 compared to November 13, with decreases of 2.28% and 2.04% respectively. The regional spreads and basis also changed [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 4.44%, while port inventory increased by 1.75%, and social inventory increased by 0.49% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise开工率 increased, while some downstream开工率 decreased, such as the external - purchased MTO装置开工率 which decreased by 2.38% [1]. LLDPE & PP - **Price and Spread**: L2601 and L2605 prices increased slightly, while PP2601 and PP2605 decreased slightly. The basis of PE and PP in North China and East China increased [5]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 7.96%, and social inventory decreased by 1.86%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 3.35%, and trade - dealer inventory increased by 1.73% [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased by 0.66%, and downstream加权开工率 decreased by 0.80%. PP装置开工率 increased by 2.28%, and downstream加权开工率 increased by 0.3% [5]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: Some spot prices remained unchanged, while the basis and some spreads changed. For example, the full - latex basis increased by 29.66% [7]. - **Production and Consumption**: September production in some countries changed, and tire production and export also changed. For example, September Thai production decreased by 5.45%, and tire export in September decreased by 10.65% [7]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Tire开工率 was stable or decreased slightly, and inventory increased. For example, the bonded - area inventory increased by 0.40% [7]. Glass & Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions were mostly stable or decreased slightly. The basis of glass and soda ash increased [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率 and weekly production decreased, and glass and soda ash inventories increased [9]. - **Real - Estate Data**: Real - estate new - start, construction, completion, and sales areas all showed negative growth to varying degrees [9]. PVC & Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: Some PVC and caustic soda prices were stable or changed slightly. The basis and spreads also changed [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda开工率 decreased slightly, and PVC总开工率 decreased by 3.2%. The downstream开工率 of both also changed [10]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased [10]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased on November 14 compared to November 13. Some spreads also changed significantly, such as the WTI M1 - M3 spread which increased by 82.35% [11]. - **Market Situation**: The market is affected by multiple factors, with a weak supply - demand pattern but short - term price support [11]. Ester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: Upstream raw material prices such as Brent crude increased, and downstream polyester product prices and cash - flows changed. PX, PTA, and MEG prices and spreads also changed [14]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of various segments in the polyester industry chain changed, and MEG port inventory was expected to increase [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Lithium - The short - term supply - demand is expected to increase, but there is no substantial switch. The marginal drive of new demand is limited after entering the off - season. The social inventory is still being depleted, but the digestion speed of warehouse receipts has slowed down recently. Attention should be paid to the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. The short - term sentiment may be adjusted, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly. Follow - up attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large manufacturers before the end of the year and the marginal changes in downstream demand after entering the off - season [1]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment has improved, but the fundamental improvement is limited. The medium - term supply of nickel remains loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. The short - term driving force is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [2]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There are still pressures on the supply side in terms of steel mill production scheduling and social inventory, and demand improvement is insufficient. The short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [4]. Tin - Recently, macro - fluctuations have been large. Considering the strong fundamentals, it is advisable to choose the opportunity to go long at low levels after the market sentiment stabilizes. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in the macro - end and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [7]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable with a slight increase, but the futures price fluctuates downward. There is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is still expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of organic silicon production cuts [8]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is mainly stable, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. The market is still in a situation of both supply and demand decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price [9]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure may be limited in the future. The demand side has no outstanding performance, and the domestic zinc ingot remains at a discount. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the risk of a short squeeze eases. The zinc ingot export may boost the domestic zinc price. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and the upward or downward breakthrough requires specific conditions [12]. Copper - In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the bottom center of copper prices to gradually move up. Follow - up attention should be paid to marginal changes in demand and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract focusing on the support around 86,500 yuan/ton [14]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price may face downward pressure, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum referring to the operating range of 21,400 - 22,000 yuan/ton next week. Attention should be paid to overseas monetary policy trends and marginal changes in the domestic fundamentals. The alumina price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - In the short - term, the price of ADC12 will maintain a relatively strong operation, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, changes in downstream procurement rhythm, and the inventory depletion process [18]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues Price and Basis - **Lithium**: The average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide all increased slightly. The prices of some lithium raw materials remained unchanged [1]. - **Nickel**: The prices of various nickel products generally decreased, and the cost of some electrolytic nickel production processes changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils decreased slightly, and the prices of some raw materials remained stable or decreased slightly [4]. - **Tin**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin decreased, and the LME 0 - 3 premium changed [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of industrial silicon were stable, and the futures price decreased [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price fluctuated greatly [9]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [12]. - **Copper**: The prices of various copper products decreased slightly, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of SMM A00 aluminum and alumina in some regions decreased, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was stable, and the scrap - refined price difference increased [18]. Monthly and Inter - monthly Spreads - **Lithium**: The inter - monthly spreads of lithium contracts changed, showing different trends [1]. - **Nickel**: The inter - monthly spreads of nickel contracts changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The inter - monthly spreads of stainless steel contracts changed [4]. - **Tin**: The inter - monthly spreads of tin contracts changed significantly [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The inter - monthly spreads of industrial silicon contracts changed [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The inter - monthly spreads of polysilicon contracts changed [9]. - **Zinc**: The inter - monthly spreads of zinc contracts changed [12]. - **Copper**: The inter - monthly spreads of copper contracts changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The inter - monthly spreads of aluminum contracts changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The inter - monthly spreads of casting aluminum alloy contracts changed [18]. Fundamental Data - **Lithium**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, the import decreased in September, and the inventory decreased in October [1]. - **Nickel**: The production of refined nickel in China increased, the import volume increased significantly, and the inventory in various regions changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly, the import increased, the export decreased, and the inventory changed [4]. - **Tin**: The production of SMM refined tin in October increased, the import of tin ore in September decreased, and the inventory in various regions changed [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of industrial silicon in some regions changed, the production of some downstream products changed, and the inventory decreased [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The production and inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the import and export volumes also changed [9]. - **Zinc**: The production of refined zinc increased in October, the import decreased in September, the export increased significantly, and the inventory in various regions changed [12]. - **Copper**: The production of electrolytic copper decreased in October, the import increased in September, and the inventory in various regions changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased in October, the import and export volumes changed, and the inventory in various regions changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots changed in October, the import and export volumes changed, and the inventory in various regions changed [18].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report's Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, hot metal production rebounded, the apparent demand of the five major steel products declined, production continued to decrease, and inventory continued to be destocked. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge. Iron ore port inventory continued to accumulate, and the supply of iron elements in the January contract turned loose. The iron element chain has a basis for negative feedback, so it is not recommended to go long. The long coking coal and short hot-rolled coil arbitrage declined due to the decline in coking coal. Considering the inventory differentiation between the two, this arbitrage logic will continue in the near term and can be held. On the single-side trend, the steel price valuation is not high, but there is a lack of upward driving force. Considering the iron element inventory accumulation, the price is expected to maintain a weak downward trend. It is recommended to mainly take short positions [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot prices in some regions declined, while futures prices rose slightly. The basis and spreads of different contracts also changed [2]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2950 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The profits of steel products in different regions and varieties generally declined [2]. - **Production**: The daily average hot metal production increased by 2.6 to 236.8, a rise of 1.1%. The production of the five major steel products decreased by 22.4 to 834.4, a decline of 2.6%. Rebar and hot-rolled coil production also decreased [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 26.2 to 1477.4, a decline of 1.7%. Rebar inventory decreased, while hot-rolled coil inventory was basically flat [2]. - **Trading Volume and Demand**: Building material trading volume and the apparent demand of the five major steel products declined slightly [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report's Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the iron ore futures rebounded after a rapid decline. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased week-on-week, and the arrival volume at the 45 ports declined. Based on recent shipping data, the subsequent average arrival volume will increase. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin declined slightly, the hot metal volume rebounded, and the restocking demand of steel mills increased slightly. From the data of the five major steel products, it can be seen that production and inventory continued to decline seasonally, and the apparent demand decreased, indicating weakening demand. In terms of inventory, port inventory increased, the port clearance volume increased, and the steel mills' equity ore inventory rose. Looking forward, although the hot metal production rebounded this week, there is limited room for further increase. With the current profit margin and inventory level of steel mills, it is not enough to trigger negative feedback. It is expected that iron ore will fluctuate in a high range, and it is advisable to wait and see on the single side [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some iron ore varieties changed slightly, and the basis and spreads of different contracts also changed [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at the 45 ports decreased by 477.2 to 2741.2, a decline of 14.8%. The global weekly shipment volume decreased by 144.8 to 3069.0, a decline of 4.5%. The national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6, a rise of 10.6% [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.7 to 236.9, a rise of 1.1%. The daily average port clearance volume at the 45 ports increased by 6.0 to 327.0, a rise of 1.9%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 49.6 to 6555.0, a decline of 0.8%. The national monthly crude steel production decreased by 149.0 to 7200.0, a decline of 2.0% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The port inventory increased slightly, the steel mills' imported ore inventory increased, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report's Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: Last week, the coke futures fluctuated and declined. Recently, the rhythm of the futures and spot markets has not been consistent. The port trade quotation declined following the futures, and the fourth round of price increase by mainstream coke enterprises was implemented. On the supply side, the coking coal price in the Shanxi market fluctuated at a high level, providing cost support for coke. After the price increase by coke enterprises, they still faced losses, and the operating rate decreased. On the demand side, the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan were lifted, the hot metal production rebounded from a low level, the steel price was weak, and the steel mill profit decreased, which had a certain suppression effect on the coke price increase. In terms of inventory, the inventories of coking plants, ports, and steel mills decreased slightly, and the overall inventory decreased slightly from the middle level. Coke supply and demand were tight, and downstream enterprises destocked passively. Recently, the coking coal quotation declined following the futures, and the Shanxi auctions began to show a mixed trend of rising and falling, but overall, the coking coal price remained firm, and coke still had the expectation of a price increase. The strategy is to view it as oscillating on the single side, with the reference range of 1650 - 1780, and it is recommended to take a long - short position in the 1 - 5 spread of coke, but it is necessary to prevent the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Last week, the coking coal futures showed an oscillating and declining trend. The spot auction prices in Shanxi turned to a mixed trend of rising and falling, the Mongolian coal quotation declined following the futures, and recently, the thermal coal market continued to rise, but the increase narrowed. The overall tight pattern of the coal spot market showed signs of loosening. On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi, Luliang, Linfen, and Wuhai began to resume production, and it is expected that the coking coal supply will increase in the later period, but the production recovery is limited. In terms of imported coal, the Mongolian coal customs clearance increased significantly in November, the port inventory rebounded from a low level, the Mongolian coal quotation was somewhat loose, and traders were afraid of high prices and increased the hedging ratio. On the demand side, the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan were lifted, the hot metal production rebounded from a low level, the coking operating rate declined slightly, and the restocking demand of steel mills at high prices weakened. In terms of inventory, coking enterprises and ports destocked, while coal mines, coal washing plants, ports, and steel mills stocked up, and the overall inventory increased slightly from the middle level. The policy emphasized energy supply guarantee during the heating season, which led to the expectation of increased coal supply and falling prices in the market. The strategy is to view it as oscillating on the single side, with the reference range of 1170 - 1290, and it is recommended to take a long - short position in the 1 - 5 spread of coking coal, but it is necessary to prevent the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in steel prices [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coke varieties and contracts changed slightly, and the basis and spreads also changed [6]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coking coal varieties and contracts declined, and the basis and spreads also changed [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants decreased, while the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased slightly. The raw coal production increased [6]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production increased, and the coke production decreased slightly [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased, and the coking coal inventory increased slightly. The inventory levels of different sectors also changed [6]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap increased [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the provided reports. The reports mainly offer data on various financial products such as stock index futures, bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping, including prices, price changes, and historical quantiles. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price and Spread Data**: The report provides current values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical quantiles, and all - time historical quantiles for various stock index futures price spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. For example, the IF spot - futures spread is - 27.74, with a 15.60% change from the previous day [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: It also presents cross - variety ratios such as CSI 200/CSI 300, CSI 500/CSI 300, etc., along with their current values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis and Spread Data**: The report shows basis data for TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures, including current values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles since listing. For instance, the TS basis is 1.3494, with a 0.0020 change from the previous day [2]. - **Cross - period and Cross - variety Spreads**: It provides cross - period spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) and cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF) for different bond futures, along with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Price Data**: The report includes domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, gold - to - silver ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions for precious metals (gold and silver). For example, the AU2512 contract closed at 953.20 on November 14, down 0.83% from the previous day [3]. - **Basis and Ratio Changes**: It shows changes in basis and gold - to - silver ratios, such as the gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis being - 5.22, with a - 2.67 change [3]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Index and Price Data**: The report provides settlement price indices for container shipping (SCFIS for European and US - West routes), Shanghai export container freight rates, futures prices, and basis for container shipping contracts. For example, the SCFIS (European route) settlement price index was 1504.80 on November 10, up 24.50% from November 3 [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: It includes fundamental data such as global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators (quasi - on - time rate, port calls), monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators (PMI, consumer confidence index) [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including the overall position changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties and the significant changes in the top 20 seats [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog IF (CSI 300) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 14, the total position of the IF variety increased by 5,374 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 increased by 543 lots [3]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 long - position seats of the IF variety, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 39,495 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 1,550 lots, while CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 619 lots [4]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 short - position seats of the IF variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 42,930 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 2,208 lots, while CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 696 lots [6]. IH (SSE 50) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 14, the total position of the IH variety increased by 806 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 increased by 1,112 lots [9]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 long - position seats of the IH variety, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 13,269 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 443 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 565 lots [10]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 short - position seats of the IH variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 13,923 lots. Galaxy Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 309 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 320 lots [11]. IC (CSI 500) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 14, the total position of the IC variety increased by 1,308 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 increased by 610 lots [15]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 long - position seats of the IC variety, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 35,285 lots. Yide Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 1,705 lots, while Huatai Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,011 lots [15]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 short - position seats of the IC variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 40,494 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,255 lots, while Everbright Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 218 lots [16]. IM (CSI 1000) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 14, the total position of the IM variety increased by 1,057 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 decreased by 1,368 lots [19]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 long - position seats of the IM variety, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 50,399 lots. Zhongtai Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 1,551 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 836 lots [19]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 short - position seats of the IM variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 73,210 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,555 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 695 lots [20].

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月14日 - FREE C | | | | | 欢迎关注微信公众号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 反内卷在顺周期行业内持续推动,国内股指韧性较 | | | | IF2512 IH2512 | | 强,整体上继续降波等待企稳。三季报发布后,A | | | 股指 | IC2512 | 顺周期全面回暖,A股整体上扬 | 股整体处于再定价调整中,短期常见窄幅回调及反 弹,下方风险有限,推荐观望为主。若单日出现深 | | | | IM2512 | | 度下挫,可布局看跌期权牛市价差。 | | | | | | 短期10年期国债活跃券250016.IB的波动区间可 | | | | T2512 | | 能在1.75%-1.82%,且央行国债买卖重启、货币 | | | 国债 | TF2512 | 股债跷跷板效应下,期债全线收跌 | 政策偏宽,影响利率顶部、期债底部更加夯实。 | | 金融 | | TS2512 TL2512 | | 250016已经处于1.8%附近,后 ...

Report Information - Report Title: All-variety Spread Daily Report [4] - Date: November 14, 2025 [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Mystel, GF Futures Research Institute [5] Commodity Market Analysis Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF601)**: Spot price is 5506, futures price is 5870, basis is 364, basis rate is 6.19%, and historical quantile is 47.10% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Spot price is 5756, futures price is not provided, basis and basis rate data are incomplete [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Spot price is 3046, futures price is 3270, basis is -224, basis rate is -6.85%, and historical quantile is 64.20% [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Spot and futures price data are incomplete [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Spot price is 841, futures price is 873, basis is -32, basis rate is -3.67%, and historical quantile is 8.81% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Spot price is 1689, futures price is 1686, basis is 3, basis rate is 0.18%, and historical quantile is 64.51% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Spot price is 1301, futures price is 1214, basis is 87, basis rate is 7.17%, and historical quantile is 48.40% [1] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2512)**: Spot price is 87550, futures price is 87210, basis is 340, basis rate is 0.39%, and historical quantile is 17.50% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2601)**: Spot price is 21920, futures price is 22050, basis is -130, basis rate is -0.59%, and historical quantile is 16.45% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Spot price is 2851, futures price is 2840, basis is 11, basis rate is 0.39%, and historical quantile is 27.53% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2512)**: Spot price is 22740, futures price is 22560, basis is 180, basis rate is 0.79%, and historical quantile is 16.87% [1] - **Tin (SN2512)**: Spot price is 298140, futures price is 296000, basis is 2140, basis rate is 0.72%, and historical quantile is 8.95% [1] - **Nickel (NI2512)**: Spot price is 119150, futures price is 118930, basis is 220, basis rate is 0.18%, and historical quantile is 68.33% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2601)**: Spot price is 12475, futures price is 12920, basis is -445, basis rate is -3.57%, and historical quantile is 83.90% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2601)**: Spot price is 87840, futures price is 84350, basis is 3490, basis rate is 3.97%, and historical quantile is 13.87% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (212601)**: Spot price is 9145, futures price is 9500, basis is -355, basis rate is -3.88%, and historical quantile is 25.66% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2512)**: Spot price is 958.7, futures price is 961.2, basis is -2.6, basis rate is -0.27%, and historical quantile is 30.40% [1] - **Silver (AG2512)**: Spot price is 12588.0, futures price is 12563.0, basis is 25.0, basis rate is 0.20%, and historical quantile is 39.00% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Spot price is 3071.0, futures price is 3000, basis is 71.0, basis rate is 2.31%, and historical quantile is 25.60% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: Spot price is 8490, futures price is 8316.0, basis is 174.0, basis rate is 2.09%, and historical quantile is 35.80% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Spot price is 8670, futures price is 8752.0, basis is -82.0, basis rate is -0.94%, and historical quantile is 7.90% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Spot price is 2610, futures price is 2492.0, basis is 118.0, basis rate is 4.74%, and historical quantile is 68.20% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (OI601)**: Spot price is 10300, futures price is 9975.0, basis is 325.0, basis rate is 3.26%, and historical quantile is 83.20% [1] - **Corn (C2601)**: Spot price is 2200, futures price is 2186.0, basis is 14.0, basis rate is 0.64%, and historical quantile is 49.70% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2601)**: Spot price is 2550, futures price is 2507.0, basis is 43.0, basis rate is 1.72%, and historical quantile is 21.20% [1] - **Live Hogs (LH2601)**: Spot price is 12000, futures price is 11860.0, basis is 140.0, basis rate is 1.18%, and historical quantile is 47.60% [1] - **Eggs (JD2512)**: Spot price is 3040.0, futures price is 2840, basis is 200.0, basis rate is 6.58%, and historical quantile is 19.20% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Spot price is 13490.0, futures price is 14614, basis is -1124.0, basis rate is -7.69%, and historical quantile is 8.33% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: Spot price is 5760, futures price is 5512.0, basis is 248.0, basis rate is 4.50%, and historical quantile is 6.40% [1] - **Apples (AP601)**: Spot price is 8840, futures price is 9504.0, basis is -664.0, basis rate is -6.99%, and historical quantile is 1.60% [1] - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Spot price is 9195.0, futures price is 8900, basis is 295.0, basis rate is 3.21%, and historical quantile is 75.90% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX601)**: Spot price is 6756.0, futures price is 6836.0, basis is -80.0, basis rate is -1.17%, and historical quantile is 13.50% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Spot price is 4575.0, futures price is 4700.0, basis is -125.0, basis rate is -2.66%, and historical quantile is 13.30% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Spot price is 3945.0, futures price is 3892.0, basis is 53.0, basis rate is 1.36%, and historical quantile is 78.10% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF602)**: Spot price is 6295.0, futures price is 6224.0, basis is 71.0, basis rate is 1.14%, and historical quantile is 61.70% [1] - **Styrene (EB2512)**: Spot price is 6437.0, futures price is 6440.0, basis is -3.0, basis rate is -0.05%, and historical quantile is 25.70% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Spot price is 2103.0, futures price is 2072.0, basis is 31.0, basis rate is 1.47%, and historical quantile is 19.30% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: Spot price is 1600.0, futures price is 1658.0, basis is -58.0, basis rate is -3.50%, and historical quantile is 3.80% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Spot price is 6865.0, futures price is 6818.0, basis is 47.0, basis rate is 0.69%, and historical quantile is 36.60% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Spot price is 6495.0, futures price is 6480.0, basis is 15.0, basis rate is 0.23%, and historical quantile is 29.50% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Spot price is 4586.0, futures price is 4510.0, basis is 76.0, basis rate is 1.66%, and historical quantile is 64.50% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Spot price is 2468.8, futures price is 2337.0, basis is 131.8, basis rate is 5.64%, and historical quantile is 70.40% [1] - **LPG (PG2512)**: Spot price is 4498.0, futures price is 4324.0, basis is 174.0, basis rate is 3.87%, and historical quantile is 41.50% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2601)**: Spot price is 3029.0, futures price is 3010.0, basis is 19.0, basis rate is 0.63%, and historical quantile is 48.60% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2601)**: Spot price is 10480.0, futures price is 10300.0, basis is 180.0, basis rate is 1.72%, and historical quantile is 12.00% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: Spot price is 1056.0, futures price is 1028.0, basis is 28.0, basis rate is 2.72%, and historical quantile is 68.69% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Spot price is 1239.0, futures price is 1194.0, basis is 45.0, basis rate is 3.63%, and historical quantile is 24.57% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Spot price is 15390.0, futures price is 14800.0, basis is 590.0, basis rate is 3.99%, and historical quantile is 64.89% [1] Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2512.CFE**: Spot price is 4702.1, futures price is 4677.0, basis is -25.1, basis rate is -0.54%, and historical quantile is 18.00% [1] - **IH2512.CFE**: Spot price is 3073.7, futures price is 3068.8, basis is 4.9, basis rate is 0.16%, and historical quantile is 34.40% [1] - **IC2512.CFE**: Spot price is 7355.3, futures price is 7269.0, basis is 86.3, basis rate is 1.19%, and historical quantile is 5.60% [1] - **IM2512.CFE**: Spot price is 7590.6, futures price is 7478.4, basis is 112.2, basis rate is 1.50%, and historical quantile is 16.80% [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **TS2512**: Spot price is 102.46, futures price is 100.04, basis is 0.01, basis rate is 0.01%, and historical quantile is 22.70% [1] - **TF2512**: Spot price is 105.88, futures price is 106.51, basis is -0.11, basis rate is -0.10%, and historical quantile is 26.60% [1] - **T2512**: Spot price is 108.42, futures price is 106.51, basis is 0.19, basis rate is 0.16%, and historical quantile is 29.80% [1] - **TL2512**: Spot price is 131.08, futures price is 116.13, basis is 0.19, basis rate is 0.16%, and historical quantile is 26.60% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue its weak and volatile operation. Although the spot price is weak and the supply is expected to increase, the current low futures price and the price inversion between the domestic and foreign markets provide some support for the futures price, limiting its downward space [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On November 13, the price of log2511 remained unchanged at 740.0; log2601 rose to 783.5, up 5.0 (0.64%); log2603 rose to 793.5, up 1.0 (0.13%); log2605 fell to 810.0, down 2.0 (-0.25%) [2] - Spot prices: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 13 compared to November 12 [2] - Spread and basis: The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 5.0 to -43.5; the 11 - 03 spread decreased by 1.0 to -53.5; the 11 - contract basis remained unchanged at 10.0; the 01 - contract basis decreased by 5.0 to -33.5 [2] - Foreign quotes: On November 14, the CFR prices of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine and 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged compared to November 7 [2] - Import cost: The RMB/USD exchange rate decreased to 7.102 on November 13, and the import theoretical cost decreased to 809.77 yuan [2] 3.2 Supply - Monthly supply: In October, the port shipping volume was 201.3 million cubic meters, up 13.99% from September; the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8.0 (17.39%) [2] - Expected supply (November 10 - 16, 2025): The number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 12, a week - on - week decrease of 25%; the total arrival volume was about 39.5 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 26% [3] 3.3 Inventory - Weekly inventory of major ports: As of November 7, the total inventory in Chinese ports increased by 5.0 (1.74%) to 288.0 million cubic meters; in Shandong, it increased by 3.2 (1.70%) to 191.5 million cubic meters; in Jiangsu, it increased by 0.2 (0.24%) to 82.45 million cubic meters [2][3] 3.4 Demand - Weekly demand: As of November 7, the daily average outbound volume in China increased by 0.35 (6%) to 6.63 million cubic meters; in Shandong, it increased by 0.60 (19%) to 3.79 million cubic meters; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.15 (-6%) to 2.28 million cubic meters [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Despite concerns about crude oil supply glut, US government's end of shutdown and tightened sanctions on Russia led to a slight rebound in overnight oil prices. OPEC+ faces continuous production - increase pressure, with a weak fourth - quarter supply - demand outlook. EIA周报 shows significant increase in US crude production and large inventory growth, so oil prices remain under pressure. Short - term Brent may trade in the range of $60 - 66 per barrel, with a bearish view. Attention should be paid to substantial sanctions on Russia and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation [2]. Polyolefins - PP shows both supply and demand increase. Supply rises due to fewer maintenance, and demand remains resilient in the automotive and home - appliance sectors, but there is slight inventory accumulation this week under new - capacity pressure. PE has weak supply and demand. Although unplanned maintenance eases supply pressure, import sources are abundant, and non - agricultural - film demand generally declines. There is inventory reduction this week, but port inventory remains high. The cost side has crude oil fluctuating and coal strengthening, with a slight repair in PDH profit. High inventory and cost support continue to compete, and market expectations are still weak [4]. Methanol - Delayed gas restrictions in Iran put significant pressure on the port methanol market. High inventory, combined with positive import profit from Iran, leads to continuous trading and weakening willingness to hold goods, resulting in price decline and stable basis. In the inland market, Baofeng continues external procurement, and Jiutai has unexpected maintenance, with subsequent increase in domestic production. Overseas gas restrictions are less than expected. On the demand side, multiple MTO units reduce load due to profit reasons, and traditional downstream purchases for rigid demand. The market currently trades on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventory. The inventory problem of the 01 contract cannot be solved, and the weak reality will continue to be traded before gas restrictions in Iran [8]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, there are still periodic rainfall disturbances in overseas production areas, but overall, a strong output is expected during the peak - production period, and raw - material prices have some downward space. Domestic production areas are gradually entering the output - reduction period, with firm domestic raw - material prices. On the demand side, some northern regions are entering the off - season in the month, with slower market sales, mainly digesting inventory and purchasing as needed. With market digestion, some replenish in small quantities in the middle of the month. In the short term, due to large macro fluctuations, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate. Follow the raw - material output in the peak - production period of major production areas and macro changes. If raw - material supply is smooth, prices may weaken; if not, rubber prices are expected to trade around 15,000 - 15,500 [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: Low - concentration caustic soda gets price support from increased inquiries from alumina plants, but overall, there is a lack of real positive factors. The caustic - soda industry still faces supply - demand pressure, with few maintenance enterprises and an increasing supply. The main downstream alumina price is weakening, with shrinking industry profit and increasing losses, so the main demand side provides weak support, suppressing caustic - soda prices. Although there may be periodic replenishment demand from middle - and downstream inventory consumption, prices are still under pressure due to increasing supply and weakening demand. The non - aluminum market is sluggish. It is expected that caustic - soda prices will trend down in the long run, but there is short - term support from downstream periodic demand. Track the rhythm and sustainability of downstream replenishment [12]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand surplus problem has not improved, with increasing supply pressure, weakening demand expectations, insufficient cost support, and no positive macro expectations. It is expected that prices will continue to weaken. On the demand side, major downstream sectors such as real estate are still weak, and product enterprises like profiles and pipes have limited new orders, mainly purchasing for rigid demand, which cannot provide continuous market support. In November - December, there will still be an impact from new production capacity. After the maintenance of Inner Mongolia Sanlian, Qilu Petrochemical, and Inner Mongolia Junzheng ends next week, production is expected to increase. From November to January of the next year is the traditional off - season, with reduced outdoor construction in the north, and overall real - estate demand decline is a negative factor. The situation of anti - dumping duties in India is unclear, and exports are mainly in a wait - and - see state. The supply - demand surplus persists, and prices are not optimistic, expected to continue weakening at the bottom [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: Recently, with the previous price decline, middle - and downstream buyers have increased purchases, leading to a rebound in the futures price. However, the overall surplus situation is still prominent. Fundamentally, weekly production remains at a high level of around 750,000 tons, with obvious surplus compared to current rigid demand. Manufacturer inventory has been transferred to the middle - and downstream, and trade inventory continues to rise. In the medium term, there is no expectation of significant downstream capacity increase, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. Without actual capacity exit or load reduction, the supply - demand situation will face further pressure. Track macro fluctuations and soda - ash plant load - adjustment situations. The supply - demand outlook is bearish. Short - term operation should be on the sidelines, and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds [13]. - **Glass**: Sales have weakened significantly, and the sales - to - production ratio has fallen below 100% in recent days. Although four production lines in the Shahe area were cold - repaired last week, there will be production - line restart and ignition, adding about 3,650 tons of daily capacity, which will put pressure on the supply side. The latest deep - processing order days have slightly improved, and there is still some rigid demand support in November as it is the year - end rush season. However, in the long - term, at the end of the peak season, there are concerns about future demand sustainability. As the temperature drops in the north, outdoor construction will stop, and glass prices will face pressure after December. The real - estate industry is still in the bottom cycle, with significant reduction in construction volume. The industry needs capacity exit to solve the surplus problem. The high sales - to - production ratio of spot has ended, and glass is expected to be weak in the short term [13]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Currently, Asian and domestic PX loads remain high. In the short - term, PTA load is maintained, and the previous terminal and polyester demand was better than expected. With low polyester inventory, load is expected to remain relatively high from November to December. PX demand still has short - term support. Yesterday, PX showed a strong trend due to the lifting of India's BIS certification and the start of the Asia - America aromatics arbitrage. However, limited by weak overall oil - price support and expected weakening of terminal demand in the industry chain, the PX rebound space is restricted. Short - term PX short positions should be avoided [14]. - **PTA**: There are still many PTA plant maintenance plans in November. The previous terminal and polyester demand was better than expected. With low polyester inventory, load is expected to remain relatively high in November - December. The supply - demand balance in November is expected to be tight, but it will be loose from December to the first quarter of next year. Yesterday, PTA showed a strong trend due to the cancellation of India's BIS certification and PX transfer - demand news, but the spot - market negotiation atmosphere was dull, and the basis was still weak. The PTA rebound space is restricted. Short - term TA should pay attention to the $4800 pressure level, and short positions should be avoided. TA1 - 5 can be treated as a rolling reverse spread [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Recently, some coal - based EG plants are under maintenance, but Jinghai Petrochemical's plant has restarted production. Previously - maintained coal - based plants plan to restart in the middle - and late - November. Domestic supply remains high, and North American EG load has reached a high level. Middle - East supply shows no reduction, and overseas shipments are concentrated in January. Currently, polyester load is declining, and due to the high expected inventory accumulation in November - December, EG is under pressure. Hold out - of - the - money call options on EG2601 with a strike price of no less than 4100; go for reverse spreads on EG1 - 5 at high prices [14]. - **Short - fiber**: Currently, short - fiber factories have low inventory levels and reasonable processing fees, so short - fiber supply remains relatively high. In November, there is an expected seasonal weakening of terminal demand. Yesterday, the cancellation of India's BIS certification made raw - material PTA stronger, but it mainly benefited PTA and long - fiber, having relatively little impact on short - fiber. In the short - term, due to the weak supply - demand expectation, the short - fiber rebound space is restricted, and processing fees are expected to be compressed. The strategy is the same as PTA for single - side trading; the processing fee on the disk fluctuates in the range of 800 - 1100, and short positions should be taken at high prices [14]. - **Bottle - grade polyester chips**: In mid - November, the Huarun plant has both maintenance and restart. According to Longzhong Information, the commissioning of Dongying Fuhai's new plant is postponed, and domestic supply changes little. Considering the November market off - season, soft - drink and catering demand decline slightly, and demand provides insufficient support for bottle - grade chips. The supply - demand situation remains loose. Bottle - grade chips' social inventory is likely to enter the seasonal inventory - accumulation phase, with prices fluctuating with the cost side. Processing fees are limitedly boosted by supply - demand and change with raw - material costs. The strategy for single - side trading is the same as PTA; the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan per ton [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: There are new capacity commissioning, plant restart, and planned/unplanned maintenance expectations for pure benzene recently, but overall domestic supply may remain loose. On the demand side, some loss - making downstream products have production - reduction and price - protection expectations, so demand support is limited. Although East - China port inventory decreased this week, supply pressure remains. There is an expected amount of imports from November to December, but the US - Asia arbitrage window and gasoline - blending may disrupt market sentiment, and the actual impact needs further consideration. With weak crude - oil supply - demand expectations, cost support is limited, and the rebound space is restricted. Follow plant changes. In the short - term, BZ2603 has weak self - driving force, pay attention to the 5640 pressure level, and be cautious about chasing up [16]. - **Styrene**: Two new styrene plants are operating stably, and previously - shut - down plants have restarted. There are also expected planned/unplanned maintenance in the near future, so overall supply may remain stable. Downstream EPS enters the seasonal off - season and reduces its operating rate due to high product inventory. PS has new plant commissioning and restart, and ABS remains stable. Overall demand changes little. Although inventory decreased this week, it is still at a high level, restricting the upside. Overseas and plant accidents may disrupt the domestic market. Overall, styrene supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance, with insufficient price - driving force. Follow plant restart and production - reduction situations and cost changes. In the short - term, EB12 price may fluctuate with the cost side [16]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: On November 13, Brent was at $63.01, up $0.30 (0.48%) from the previous day; WTI was at $58.69, up $0.20 (0.34%). Most refined - oil products also had price changes. For example, NYM RBOB was at 195.97, up 0.43 (0.22%); ICE Gasoil was at $697.75, down $27.00 ( - 3.73%) [2]. - **Crack Spreads**: Most crack spreads decreased. For example, US gasoline crack spread was at 23.62, down 0.02 ( - 0.08%); Singapore diesel crack spread was at 27.71, down 1.02 ( - 3.55%) [2]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread Changes**: L2601 closed at 6818, up 30 (0.44%); PP2601 closed at 6480, up 20 (0.31%). L15 spread was at - 75, up 1 (1.32%); PP15 spread was at - 97, up 15 (13.39%) [4]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE enterprise inventory was at 52.9, up 3.9 (7.96%); PP enterprise inventory was at 62.0, up 2.01 (3.35%). PE device operating rate was at 83.1%, up 0.55 (0.66%); PP device operating rate was at 79.6%, up 1.77 (2.28%) [4]. Methanol - **Price and Basis Changes**: MA2601 closed at 2103, down 5 ( - 0.24%); MA15 spread was at - 105, down 2 (1.94%); Taicang basis was at - 29, up 11 ( - 27.50%) [6]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory was at 36.925, down 1.72 ( - 4.44%); methanol port inventory was at 154.4, up 2.65 (1.75%). Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was at 76.54%, up 0.45 (0.59%); downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was at 82.96%, down 2.02 ( - 2.38%) [7][8]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread Changes**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) was at 14800, up 50 (0.34%); 9 - 1 spread was at 125, down 10 ( - 7.41%); 1 - 5 spread was at - 85, down 5 ( - 6.25%) [11]. - **Production and开工率**: September Thailand production was at 477.50, down 26.00 ( - 5.45%); September Indonesia production was at 195.00, down 3.40 ( - 1.71%). Tire semi - steel tire operating rate was at 73.68%, up 0.01; tire full - steel tire operating rate was at 64.50%, down 0.96 [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread Changes**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted price was at 2468.8, unchanged; SH2601 was at 2337.0, down 7.0 ( - 0.3%); V2605 - V2601 was at 307.0, up 5.0 ( - 1.7%) [12]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Caustic - soda industry operating rate was at 89.9%, up 1.5 (1.7%); PVC total operating rate was at 79.3%, up 2.2 (2.8%). Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory was at 21.5, down 0.8 ( - 3.5%); PVC total social inventory was at 54.6, up 0.1 (0.2%) [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread Changes**: North - China glass quote was at 1110, unchanged; North - China soda - ash quote was at 1300, unchanged. Glass2601 was at 1056, up 7 (0.67%); Soda - ash2601 was at 1239, up 25.0 (2.06%) [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda - ash operating rate was at 86.89%, down 0.02 ( - 1.72%); soda - ash weekly production was at 75.76, down 1.3 ( - 1.71%). Glass factory inventory was at 6579.00, up 296.6 (4.72%); soda - ash factory inventory was at 170.20, up 4.2 (2.54%) [13]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread Changes**: Brent crude (January) was at $63.01, up $0.30 (0.5%); POY150/48 price was at 6570, down 10 ( - 0.2%); PX - crude spread was at 366, down 1 ( - 0.3%) [14]. - **开工率 Changes**: PTA operating rate was at 76.4%, down 1.6 ( - 2.1%); MEG comprehensive operating rate was at 76.2%, down 3.8 ( - 4.9%); polyester comprehensive operating rate was at 91.3%, down 0.4 ( - 0.4%) [14