Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Natural Rubber - Affected by the storage purchase news, the rubber price increased slightly, but the weak demand expectation remains, and the expected increase in raw materials during the peak - production period suppresses the upside of the rubber price. It is expected that the rubber price will continue to fluctuate widely in the range of 14,500 - 15,500, and short - selling on light positions can be considered at the upper limit of the range [1]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price continues to decline under pressure after breaking through the low level. The supply has a growth expectation even at low prices, while the demand remains weak. The price may continue to be under pressure, with the price fluctuation range adjusted to 7,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price continues to fall, attention can be paid to the way of capacity clearance [3]. Polysilicon - In May, the demand decline is highly certain, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation due to unchanged supply. The uncertainty of joint production cuts increases, and the polysilicon output is expected to increase. The warehouse receipts are expected to gradually increase. The spot price continues to fall, pulling down the futures price. The main fluctuation range of the futures price is expected to move down to 34,000 - 40,000 yuan/ton, and long positions should be closed [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, there is new supply pressure from the output of Lianyungang Alkali Industry. The market has a strong expectation of maintenance from May to June, and short - term inventory is likely to remain flat. In the medium - to - long term, there is still pressure for further inventory accumulation after maintenance. Consider short - term high - selling on the far - month contracts on rebounds and 7 - 9 positive spreads [5]. - For glass, the spot market is generally weak, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. Although the downstream demand has improved seasonally, the market expectation is poor, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure, with the 09 contract observing whether it can be supported at the 1,000 level [5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - On May 20, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 0.67% from the previous day; the whole - milk basis switched to the 2509 contract was - 40 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 700% [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread was - 820 yuan/ton on May 20, up 10 yuan or 1.2% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 125 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 8.7% [1]. Fundamental Data - In March, Thailand's production was 149,200 tons, down 197,200 tons or 56.93% from the previous value; Indonesia's production was 209,300 tons, up 11,700 tons or 5.92% [1]. Inventory Changes - The bonded - area inventory was 618,693 tons on May 20, up 4,506 tons or 0.73% from the previous value; the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE was 70,257 tons, down 4,435 tons or 5.94% [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 20, the price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan or 1.68% from the previous day; the basis (based on oxygen - permeable SI5530) was 890 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan or 8.54% [3]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2506 - 2507 spread was - 30 yuan/ton on May 20, down 10 yuan or 50% from the previous day; the 2507 - 2508 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Fundamental Data - In April, the national industrial silicon output was 300,800 tons, down 41,400 tons or 12.1% from the previous month; the Xinjiang industrial silicon output was 167,500 tons, down 43,300 tons or 20.55% [3]. Inventory Changes - The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory was 201,400 tons, down 17,000 tons or 7.79% from the previous value; the social inventory was 599,000 tons, up 3,000 tons or 0.5% [3]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 20, the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 37,500 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan or 1.32% from the previous day; the N - type material basis (average price) was 1,875 yuan/ton, up 1,025 yuan or 120.59% [4]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The PS2506 contract price was 35,625 yuan/ton on May 20, down 1,525 yuan or 4.1% from the previous day; the PS2506 - PS2507 spread was 900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan or 18.18% [4]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon output was 21,400 tons, unchanged from the previous value; in April, the polysilicon output was 95,400 tons, down 700 tons or 0.73% from the previous month [4]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory was 250,000 tons, down 7,000 tons or 2.72% from the previous value; the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 50 hands to 140 hands [4]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - On May 20, the North China glass quotation was 1,180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.84% from the previous day; the glass 2505 contract price was 1,129 yuan/ton, up 109 yuan or 10.69% [5]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quotation was 1,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the soda ash 2505 contract price was 1,315 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 2.33% [5]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate on May 16 was 80.27%, down 8.51% from February 9; the weekly soda ash output was 677,700 tons, down 63,000 tons or 8.52% [5]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory was 6,808,200 heavy boxes, up 52,200 heavy boxes or 0.77% from February 9; the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory was 171,200 tons, up 1,100 tons or 0.63% [5]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area was - 18.73%, an increase of 2.99% compared with the previous value; the year - on - year growth rate of the completed area was - 11.68%, an increase of 15.67% compared with the previous value [5].

广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 联系信息： 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020-88818051 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2506 | 整体小幅上升 | 国泰君安空头增仓超 1000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2506 | 整体小幅上升 | 前二十席位变化不大 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2506 | 总持仓下降 | 国君多头、中信空头减仓 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2506 | 总持仓下降 | 中信多空头均减仓 3000 手以上 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 666.0 321.0 -5,481.0 -7,341.0 2,731.0 1,740.0 -4,636.0 -8,732.0 -10,000 -8,000 -6 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0019938 | 土浅旋 | 2025年5月21日 | | | | | | | | | | | 原田 | 5月20日 | 5月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | | 8280 | 8260 | 20 | 0.24% | 江苏一级 | 现价 | Y2509 | 7662 | 7910 | -248 | -3.14% | 期价 | | 基差 | 618 | 350 | 76.57% | Y2509 | 268 | 09+350 | 09 + 360 | 现货墓差报价 | -10 | 江苏5月 | - | | 14602 | 14602 | 仓单 | 0 | 0.00% | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 5月19日 | 5月20日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 80 | 广东24度 | 8650 | 8570 ...

体报中的谎息的软乐评谈下载我摸情报片员儿为可能的是公开资料，回广场增的过些信息的非的生活带他不用手用压。本报后反映得到《思想不得意…《探疑分析方法，并不错成"就能够感影像和《鸿过士》。在日何从下，报告内容仅你参考，新年夜间 度西斯表达的舰队的不停的威尼斯坦奥尔里尔里尔斯，他没希腊优投资，风险军组。本报告演在发出维厂发射影院在客户又更也专业人士，成风见广发的影所有，未经厂发剧领先两领队，任何人不停的本版运行任何形成的发布，衰退，如何乐、和文、船耳用出处力 "广发期货"。 | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF507) | 76.80% | 5778 | 5638 | 140 | 2.48% | 92 | 硅罐(SM509) | 5870 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 5778 | 1.59% | 41.60% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 132 | 3190 | ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 21 日星期三 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年5月20日 | | | 問數波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 张跃 | 基产 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3190 | 3210 | -20 | ਰੇਤੋ | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3220 | 3220 | O | 123 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3340 | 3360 | -20 | 243 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3115 | 3126 | -11 | 75 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3069 | 3082 | -13 | 121 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3097 | 3107 | -10 | ਰੇਤੋ | | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3280 | 3290 | -10 | ટેર | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3200 | 3210 | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with the futures market weak. Supply pressure is evident due to increased production and imports, while demand is relatively flat. The short - term trend is expected to be weak, with the main contract price likely to test the 60,000 yuan level, but excessive bearishness is not recommended [1]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the cost provides strong support. However, the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 122,000 to 128,000 yuan [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of weak shock. The supply is in an over - capacity situation, and the demand is slowly recovering. The inventory pressure has slightly eased. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 12,600 to 13,200 yuan [4]. - **Tin**: The macro - sentiment may drive the price to rebound, but considering the supply recovery and weak demand expectations, a short - selling strategy can be attempted in the 265,000 - 270,000 yuan range, with attention paid to the supply recovery [5]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The spot market is expected to remain tight in the short term, with prices likely to be strong and volatile. Attention should be paid to the production resumption of enterprises [6]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - factors provide support, and low inventory strengthens price resilience. However, the demand is facing seasonal and trade uncertainties, limiting the upside. The price is expected to range from 19,500 to 21,000 yuan [6]. - **Zinc**: Short - term prices may be supported by tariff easing, but the long - term supply is in a loose cycle. The price may maintain a high - level shock or decline, depending on supply and demand [8]. - **Copper**: The market presents a "strong reality + weak expectation" situation. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to the sustainability of the strong fundamentals after May and the tariff negotiation rhythm [11]. 3. Summary by Directory Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate均价 dropped 1.24% to 63,700 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade dropped 1.27% to 62,050 yuan/ton. The basis of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased 200% to 720 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, lithium carbonate production decreased 6.65% to 73,810 tons, while demand increased 3.02% to 89,627 tons. In March, imports increased 47.03% to 18,125 tons, and exports decreased 47.25% to 220 tons [1]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel均价 dropped 0.89% to 125,000 yuan/ton. The import loss increased 7.62% to - 3,910 yuan/ton [3]. - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrolytic nickel decreased 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte production increased 1.05% to 133,478 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased 6.08% to 36,300 tons in April, and imports decreased 68.84% to 8,164 tons. SHFE inventory decreased 3.02% to 27,808 tons [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,200 yuan/ton, and the basis increased 3.70% to 420 yuan/ton [4]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased 0.27% to 944 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and exports increased 70.98% to 47.06 million tons [4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin均价 dropped 0.15% to 265,100 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased 35.43% to - 82 dollars/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In March, tin ore imports decreased 4.83% to 8,323 tons, and SMM refined tin production increased 8.75% to 15,280 tons [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory decreased 3.46% to 8,417 tons, and social inventory decreased 2.30% to 9,959 tons [5]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum均价 dropped 0.20% to 20,270 yuan/ton. The import loss increased 45.3 yuan/ton to - 1,311 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, alumina production decreased 6.17% to 708.35 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased 2.91% to 360.60 million tons [6]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 2.66% to 58.50 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.51% to 39.3 million tons [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot均价 dropped 0.53% to 22,650 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased 79.77 yuan/ton to - 386 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, refined zinc production increased 0.31% to 50.98 million tons. In March, imports increased 9.47% to 5.78 million tons, and exports decreased 77.37% to 0.02 million tons [8]. - **Inventory**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased 1.99% to 8.38 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 2.07% to 16.1 million tons [8]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper均价 dropped 0.91% to 78,110 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased 114.59 yuan/ton to - 158 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, electrolytic copper production increased 0.32% to 112.57 million tons. In March, imports increased 15.24% to 30.88 million tons [11]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased 13.08% to 13.92 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased 34.00% to 10.81 million tons [11].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Log Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: May 20, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - After May, log demand will enter the traditional off - season, with expected reduced shipments in the coming weeks. New Zealand's shipments will seasonally decrease, and the current FOB price continues to decline, maintaining a weak - balanced fundamental situation. Supply arrivals are expected to significantly decrease this week, and the market is expected to fluctuate [3][4] Group 4: Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: Log 2507 remained at 783 yuan/m³, Log 2509 decreased by 0.5 yuan to 794 yuan/m³ (-0.06%), and Log 2511 decreased by 0.5 yuan to 797 yuan/m³ (-0.06%) [2] - Spot prices: Some radiation pine prices in Rizhao Port decreased, with the 3.9A small, medium, and large radiation pine down - 1.37%, - 1.32%, and - 3.49% respectively. Some prices in Taicang Port and Rizhao Port's spruce 11.8 remained unchanged [2] - FOB prices: The CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiation pine and 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged [2] - Import costs: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly, and the import theoretical cost increased by 2.06 yuan to 781.01 yuan [2] Group 5: Supply - Monthly supply: Port shipments in April were 200.3 million m³, a 24.17% increase from March. The number of ships in the rock port increased by 13.79% [2] - Weekly supply: This week's arrivals are expected to significantly decrease, and the inventory decreased by 20,000 m³ to 341 million m³ as of May 16 [3] Group 6: Demand - Weekly demand: The average daily log出库 volume decreased by 0.01 million m³ to 6.14 million m³ as of May 16 [3] Group 7: Inventory - Weekly inventory: As of May 16, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 341 million m³, a 0.58% decrease from the previous period [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Products**: A-share index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure; short - term treasury bonds may oscillate; precious metals show certain price patterns and trends; the rally of the container shipping index may slow down [2]. - **Industrial Products**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating; iron ore, coke, and other black commodities have different price trends and market situations; various energy and chemical products have different supply - demand and price characteristics [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products such as soybeans, hogs, and sugar have their own market trends and influencing factors [2]. - **Special and New Energy Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic; rubber prices are affected by news; new energy products like lithium carbonate are in a downward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure. A - shares open lower and oscillate with trading volume maintaining at the trillion - level. Suggest selling put options on the support level of IF2506 to earn premiums, or going long on September IM contracts on pullbacks and selling call options with an exercise price of 6400 on September contracts for covered strategies [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term treasury bonds may oscillate, waiting for fundamental guidance. The 10 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on high - frequency economic data and liquidity dynamics [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold forms a "double - top" pattern and oscillates narrowly between 3200 - 3300 US dollars (750 - 770 yuan); silver fluctuates between 32 - 33.5 US dollars (8000 - 8350 yuan). The sold out - of - the - money gold call options can be held; Moody's downgrades the US credit rating, causing declines in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets and a slight increase in precious metals [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The emotional release is sufficient, and the upward momentum may slow down. Consider 8 - 10, 6 - 10 positive spreads, and wait and see for unilateral operations [2]. Industrial - **Steel**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Iron ore oscillates between 700 - 745. Coke and coking coal prices are in a downward phase. Suggest long - hot - rolled steel and short - coke or short - coking coal strategies [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different products have different trends. For example, PX continues to have limited upward momentum; PTA oscillates at a high level between 4600 - 5000; short - fiber prices follow raw materials; ethanol's supply - demand structure improves; styrene has short - term oscillation and medium - term bearishness [2]. Agricultural - Different agricultural products have various market situations. For example, US soybeans oscillate, hogs' futures and spot prices oscillate weakly in the short term, and sugar has positive data from Brazil in late April [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic, and attention is paid to whether it can break through the 1000 - point level; rubber prices rise slightly due to storage news and can be lightly shorted at the upper end of the 14500 - 15500 range [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Lithium carbonate maintains a downward trend, with the main contract referring to 60,000 - 63,000 yuan; polysilicon futures oscillate with near - term strength and long - term weakness [2].

身的来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可售的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的精确性及完整生不化任何民证。本报告反映研究人员的不同观点 见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其他周机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，提告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所选品种买卖的出价或损 管锯此投资,风险自慰。本报告音在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发明货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行 t的发布、复制。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货" 交产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月20日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 5月19日 | 5月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全到胶(SCRWF):上海 | 15000 | 14950 | 50 | 0.33% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -5 | 45 | -50 | -111.11% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14600 ...