投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 丁二烯价格区域分化，BR价格震荡整理上行 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-9-8 分析师：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 ⚫ 周内新疆蓝德高顺顺丁橡胶装置重启，国内高顺顺丁橡胶产量及产能利用率仍维持在年内高位水平；华北地区丁二烯行情维持窄幅偏强运行，叠加9月山东及华东部分民营顺丁装置存在集中检 修，成本面及未来供应面对现货市场价格略存支撑，但合成橡胶期货市场持续宽幅震荡走势仍影响下游终端采购积极性，且套利盘资源价格重心明显低于两油资源出厂价。周期末虽有部分业 者对顺丁橡胶主流供价下调保持观望，但当前现货成本较高影响下，多数贸易商主动大幅低出意愿不强。 BR期货主力合约走势图（右：持仓量，手） 0 30000 60000 90000 120000 150000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 期货持仓量:丁二烯橡胶 期货收盘价(活跃合约):丁二烯橡胶 期货结算价(活跃合约):丁二烯橡胶 助理分析师：施 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the daily data of stock index options, including the market performance of major stock indices, the trading volume and open interest of stock index options, and the volatility analysis of relevant indices [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.97% to 3738.32 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.37%, the ChiNext Index fell 3.2%, the Northbound 50 Index rose 0.58%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 5.38%, the Wind All - A Index fell 1.88%, the Wind A500 Index fell 2.39%, and the CSI A500 Index fell 2.58%. A - share half - day trading volume was 1.62 trillion yuan [5] - **Specific Index Data**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index closed at 2910.47, with a trading volume of 91.92 billion, a decline of 1.71%, and a turnover of 2080.35 billion yuan; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4365.2085, with a trading volume of 307.93 billion, a decline of 2.12%, and a turnover of 7731.25 billion yuan; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7041.1544, with a trading volume of 297.62 billion, a decline of 2.30%, and a turnover of 4885.95 billion yuan [3] CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Situation - **Option Volume and Open Interest**: For the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, the call option trading volume was 5.85 million, the put option trading volume was 3.57 million, the trading volume PCR was 0.61, the call option open interest was 6.39 million, the put option open interest was 3.63 million, and the open interest PCR was 0.57; for the CSI 300 Index, the call option trading volume was 22.82 million, the put option trading volume was 9.24 million, the trading volume PCR was 0.68, the call option open interest was 13.19 million, the put option open interest was 9.75 million, and the open interest PCR was 0.74; for the CSI 1000 Index, the call option trading volume was 22.66 million, the put option trading volume was 21.77 million, the trading volume PCR was 0.96, the call option open interest was 16.22 million, the put option open interest was 18.90 million, and the open interest PCR was 0.86 [3] Volatility Analysis - **Historical Volatility and Volatility Cone**: The report provides historical volatility and volatility cone data for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, including minimum, maximum, 10% quantile, 30% quantile, 60% quantile, 90% quantile, and current values [3][4] - **Volatility Smile Curve**: The report also shows the next - month at - the - money implied volatility and volatility smile curves for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel market shows weak supply and demand, with production and demand both affected by the parade. After the parade, production will resume, but demand is still weak, which may suppress prices. Futures prices have recovered to a neutral range, and downstream enterprises can consider selective hedging [2]. - The short - term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are poor, and prices are under pressure. However, the long - term "anti - involution" policy supports prices [2]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are weak. The spot prices have declined, and the futures market is in a negative feedback cycle due to weak steel demand. But there is limited downside space considering the winter storage window and the "anti - involution" policy [4]. - Iron ore production has decreased due to environmental restrictions and falling profits. The price is supported by pre - holiday restocking but is suppressed by future supply increases. The 01 contract has effective downside support [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Thursday, steel production dropped significantly due to the parade, and apparent demand also declined. After the parade, production will resume, but demand is still weak, suppressing prices. Futures prices have recovered to a neutral range, and downstream enterprises can consider selective hedging [2]. - Suggestion: Unilateral observation, and use futures or options for hedging at appropriate stages [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The short - term market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the trading style of the black sector changes rapidly. The fundamentals are poor in the short term, with increased supply and weak terminal demand. Inventory is high, and prices are under pressure. The long - term "anti - involution" policy supports prices [2]. - Suggestion: Short - sell on rallies [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - The spot price of port metallurgical coke has dropped by 30, and the coking coal auction has declined with a high non - sale rate. The futures market is in a negative feedback cycle due to weak steel demand. However, there is limited downside space considering the winter storage window and the "anti - involution" policy [4]. - Suggestion: Close existing short positions gradually and consider batch - layout of medium - term long positions [6]. Iron Ore - Iron ore production has dropped to 11290 tons per day due to environmental restrictions and falling profits. The price is supported by pre - holiday restocking but is suppressed by future supply increases. The 01 contract has effective downside support [5].

Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Data - The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - West America, SCFIS - West America, SCFI - East America, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1445, 1156, 1923, 1013, 2866, 1481, 1773, and 2145 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 1415, 1175, 1644, 1041, 2613, 1668, 1990, and 2225, and the respective percentage changes are 2.10%, -1.58%, 16.97%, -2.69%, 9.68%, -11.21%, -10.90%, and -3.60% [4]. - The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604 are 1443.0, 1607.4, 1300.7, 1676.0, 1518.7, and 1247.8 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 1441.1, 1609.5, 1323.0, 1701.2, 1534.0, and 1255.1, and the respective percentage changes are 0.13%, -0.13%, -1.69%, -1.48%, -1.00%, and -0.58% [4]. - The current values of EC2606, EC2608, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 positions are 943, 301, 49963, 16447, 5653, and 7306 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 958, 303, 51946, 16386, 5775, and 7297, and the respective changes are -15, -2, -1983, 61, -122, and 9 [4]. - The current values of month - spreads 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 are -375.3, 157.3, and 428.2 respectively, with corresponding previous values of -378.2, 167.2, and 446.1, and the respective changes are 2.9, -9.9, and -17.9 [4]. Group 2: Market News - The "Gemini Alliance" of Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd announced seasonal suspension plans for the upcoming National Day Golden Week. There are 4 voyages on the Asia - Europe route (weeks 38 - 41) and 6 voyages on the Trans - Pacific route (4 to the US West Coast and 2 to the US East Coast from Asia between September 30 and October 14). HMM also plans to suspend 5 voyages on the China - Europe route during the Golden Week [5]. - The US Trade Representative's Office extended the exclusion list measures in the investigation of China's behavior, policies, and practices related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation until November 29, 2025 [5]. - Houthi rebels claimed to have attacked the container ship MSC Aby with two drones and a winged missile, but the ship seems to have reached the destination port [5]. - According to a recent ruling of the Federal Circuit Court, the existing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) will remain valid until at least October 15, 2025. October 14, 2025, is a key date in the US shipping calendar, being the deadline for appealing the court's recent tariff ruling and the effective date for the US Trade Representative to impose 301 tariff fines on Chinese - built ships [5]. Group 3: Market Review and Strategy - **Market Review**: The market showed a weak and volatile trend. Maersk's opening price for week 38 dropped by 200 week - on - week to 1700, narrowing the afternoon's gains. Tuesday's rise was driven by MSC's suspension of two voyages for the National Day, the increased expectation of non - resumption of navigation in the Red Sea after Houthi attacks, and the court's ruling that Trump's so - called "reciprocal" tariffs were illegal. However, market optimism faded, refocusing on spot quotes. Spot freight rates have not stopped falling, and pre - October 1 stocking may lead to rate drops in mid - to late September, while some US - bound ships being transferred to European routes increases supply and further pressures freight rates [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Short contract 10 on rallies and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Short - term stock index futures basis widens again, and with liquidity drive, short - term index adjustment may bring long - position layout opportunities [1]. - Short - term gold price may shift to high - level consolidation, but the long - term center of gravity still has upward space; silver may run at a high level in the short term but has the risk of increased volatility [1]. - Aluminum price fluctuates due to weak domestic downstream demand in the off - season and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut; zinc price has limited downside space despite inventory pressure; nickel price follows the macro trend in the short term and long - term surplus pressure remains [1]. - Stainless steel futures fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills; tin price is strong in the short term; industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate have their own market characteristics and influencing factors [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil have neutral valuations, unclear industrial drivers, and warm macro drivers; iron ore has upward opportunities in the far - month contracts; coal and coke prices are under pressure [1]. - Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to run in a volatile manner; rapeseed oil is recommended to be observed; cotton price may range - bound in the short term; sugar supply is expected to be loose; corn has limited short - term rebound and downward space in the medium term [1]. - Crude oil, fuel oil, and other energy - related products are affected by geopolitical situations, OPEC+ policies, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations; various chemical products such as PTA, short - fiber, and styrene have their own market trends and influencing factors [1]. - Alumina price is under pressure due to weak fundamentals; copper price is expected to rise; some products like soda ash and ethylene glycol face supply - surplus pressure [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Treasury bonds**: No clear trend judgment provided [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term high - level consolidation, long - term upward space [1]. - **Silver**: Short - term high - level operation with increased volatility risk [1]. Non - ferrous metals - **Aluminum**: Fluctuates due to domestic demand and Fed rate - cut expectation, pay attention to far - month long - position opportunities [1]. - **Zinc**: Limited downside space, be cautious about short - selling in the short term [1]. - **Nickel**: Follows macro trend in the short term, long - term surplus pressure exists, focus on short - term trading and selling hedging opportunities [1]. - **Stainless steel**: Short - term weak fluctuations, pay attention to actual production of steel mills [1]. - **Tin**: Strong in the short term [1]. - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, high hedging pressure, polysilicon production cut expected [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Capacity reduction expected in the long - term, low terminal installation willingness, good profit [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: Frequent resource - end disturbances, large short - term downstream replenishment, limited subsequent replenishment space [1]. Ferrous metals - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: Neutral valuations, unclear industrial drivers, warm macro drivers [1]. - **Iron ore**: Upward opportunities in far - month contracts [1]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Prices are under pressure [1]. Agricultural products - **Palm oil and soybean oil**: Expected to run in a volatile manner, consider exiting long positions [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: Recommended to observe [1]. - **Cotton**: Short - term range - bound [1]. - **Sugar**: Supply expected to be loose, price with upper - bound pressure [1]. - **Corn**: Limited short - term rebound, downward space in the medium term [1]. - **Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread [1]. - **Log**: Weakly fluctuating [1]. - **Pig**: Bearish due to increased supply and lower costs [1]. Energy and chemicals - **Crude oil and fuel oil**: Affected by geopolitics, OPEC+ policies, and Fed rate - cut expectations [1]. - **PTA**: Production resumes, price difference expands, and short - term upward momentum is strong [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory overhauls increase, and warehouse receipts increase [1]. - **Styrene**: Bearish due to industry reform rumors and weakening market transactions [1]. - **Urea**: Limited upside space, supported by cost [1]. - **PVC**: Fluctuates weakly, with supply pressure and more near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: Affected by international oil prices, CP prices, and downstream profit conditions [1]. Others - **Shipping**: Supply exceeds the same - period level, and freight rates decline [1]. - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals put pressure on prices [1]. - **Copper**: Expected to rise, consider stopping profit for spot - futures positive spread [1]. - **Soda ash**: Bearish due to supply surplus [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by industry reform rumors and hedging pressure [1].

Report Overall Information - Report Title: Macro Financial Data Daily Report [3] - Report Date: September 5, 2025 [4] - Researcher: Zheng Yuting from the Macro Financial Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [4] - Futures Practicing License Number: F3074875; Investment Consulting License Number: Z0017779 [4] Market Conditions Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.31% with a -0.01bp change; DR007 at 1.44% with a 0.40bp change [4] - GC001 closed at 1.01% with a 1.50bp change; GC007 at 1.44% with a -2.50bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55% with a 0.10bp change; LPR 5-year remained at 3.50% [4] - 1-year treasury bond closed at 1.37% with a 0.23bp change; 5-year at 1.60% with a -2.52bp change [4] - 10-year treasury bond closed at 1.81% with a -1.69bp change; 10-year US treasury bond at 4.28% with a 5.00bp change [4] - The central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 416.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan [4] - This week, there are 2.2731 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market, and 1 trillion yuan of 91-day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [5] Stock Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4365, down 2.12%; the SSE 50 at 2910, down 1.71%; the CSI 500 at 6698.4, down 2.48%; the CSI 1000 at 7206.9, down 1.46% [6] - The trading volume of the two stock markets reached 2.5443 trillion yuan, an increase of 180.2 billion yuan from the previous day [6] - Industry sectors mostly declined, with consumer sectors such as department stores, beauty care, food and beverages, and tourism hotels leading the gains, while semiconductor, communication equipment, electronic chemicals, small metals, aerospace, and electronic components sectors leading the losses [6] - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased across the board, with IF volume up 9.4%, IH volume up 17.8%, IC volume up 16.8%, and IM volume up 13.3% [6] Core Views - Recently, the risk aversion sentiment of funds has risen, and some funds have chosen to take profits, leading to the adjustment of stock indexes [6] - Domestically, the marginal changes are limited recently, and the incremental policies are in a relative vacuum state. The latest August China Manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly to 49.4%, indicating that the economy still has certain resilience [6] - Overseas, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has increased [6] - Strategically, the short-term adjustment of stock indexes may bring opportunities for long positions [6] Futures Basis Information - The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are provided, with specific values and annualized rates noted [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield to a record high but unexpectedly cut the 25/26 planting area, resulting in a tighter supply - demand balance sheet for 25/26 US soybeans. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is at a high level, and the impact of recent weather on it is expected to be limited. The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory is rising and in a cumulative inventory cycle. The short - term demand for soybean meal is supported by high livestock and poultry inventories, but downstream transactions are cautious. The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to be supported by the tight supply - demand balance sheet, and the MO1 contract is expected to have limited downside space and a short - term volatile trend. It is recommended to buy on dips [7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basis and Spread Data - **Basis**: The basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang is 20/21. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in different regions has different values and changes, such as - 8 in Zhangjiagang, - 68 in Dongguan, etc. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong is 10 with a change of 7. [6] - **Spread**: The RM1 - 5 spread is 131. The soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market in Guangdong is 300 with a change of - 16, and the spread in the main contract is 412 with a change of - 3 [7] Supply - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield to 53.6 bushels per acre but cut the 25/26 planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. The 25/26 US soybean ending inventory is reduced to 290 million bushels. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate reached 69% this week. The September domestic soybean arrival is expected to be over 10 million tons, and the soybean meal is expected to be in a cumulative inventory cycle. The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level [7] Demand - Short - term high inventories of pigs and poultry support soybean meal demand. The policy aims to control live pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term pig supply. Soybean meal has high cost - performance and high提货 volume. Wheat replacing corn in some areas reduces protein consumption, and downstream soybean meal transactions this week are cautious [8] Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, and soybean meal inventory is rising. The inventory level is lower than last year but still in a cumulative inventory cycle. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8] Market Outlook and Strategy - With no progress in Sino - US talks, the stabilization and rebound of Brazilian logistics, and less precipitation in the US soybean production area, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to be tight, supporting the CBOT soybean futures. Under the support of import costs, the downside space of MO1 is expected to be limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the weakening of safe - haven sentiment, the wave of U.S. economic data, and the reduction of automobile tariffs will limit the rise of precious metal prices. After a recent sharp rise, precious metals are overbought, and profit - taking may lead to price adjustments. However, weak U.S. employment data strengthens the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, so precious metal prices are still supported. Precious metals are expected to slow down and enter a high - level oscillation phase, and the strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5]. - In the long - term, due to the Fed's rate - cut expectation, continuous global geopolitical uncertainty, intensified great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization with continued gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to rise [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On September 4, 2025, London gold spot was at $3536.55/ounce, London silver spot at $40.85/ounce, COMEX gold at $3596.80/ounce, and COMEX silver at $41.45/ounce. Compared with September 3, the price of London gold spot and London silver spot rose 0.1%, COMEX gold fell 0.1%, and COMEX silver fell 0.4%. Domestic gold and silver futures and spot prices also showed certain fluctuations [5]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: On September 4, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 4.08 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 4 yuan/kg, and there were also corresponding changes in other spreads and ratios compared with September 3 [5]. Position Data - **COMEX Gold and Silver Positions**: As of August 26, 2025 (weekly data), COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 275,767 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 61,456 contracts, and the net long position was 214,311 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 68,227 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 21,761 contracts, and the net long position was 46,466 contracts [5]. - **ETF Positions**: On September 3, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position was 984.26 tons, a decrease of 0.64% compared with September 2. The silver ETF - SLV position was 15,281.39775 tons, a decrease of 0.55% [5]. Inventory Data - **SHFE and COMEX Inventories**: On September 4, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 43,254 kg, an increase of 7.46% compared with September 3. SHFE silver inventory was 1,259,949 kg, an increase of 2.68%. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 38,957,798 troy ounces on September 3 compared with September 2, and COMEX silver inventory decreased 0.42% to 516,067,724 troy ounces [5]. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: On September 4, 2025, the U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.11, with a - 0.08% change compared with September 3. The U.S. dollar index was 98.15, a - 0.17% change compared with September 2. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield was 3.61%, a - 1.37% change, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.22%, a - 1.40% change [5]. - **Stock Market and Crude Oil**: The VIX index was 16.35, a - 4.78% change. The S&P 500 index was 6448.26, a 0.51% change. NYMEX crude oil was at $63.77, a - 2.82% change [5]. Market News and Analysis - **Economic News**: The Fed released the Beige Book, showing that consumer spending was flat or declining. Japan and the U.S. were in the final stage of negotiating to reduce Japanese automobile import tariffs, with the tariff rate expected to drop from 27.5% to 15% at the end of the month. U.S. employment data in August was weak, and the trade deficit in July was - $8.3 billion [5]. - **Market Performance**: On September 4, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.32% to 812.98 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures fell 0.14% to 9773 yuan/kg [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel market shows weak supply and demand. After the military parade, production will resume, but demand remains weak, suppressing prices. Steel futures valuation has been restored to a neutral range, and downstream buyers can consider selective hedging [2]. - The short - term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are poor, with prices under pressure. Although the "anti - involution" policy provides long - term support, current supply is increasing, and demand may be weak, with high inventory and de - stocking pressure [2]. - Coking coal and coke prices are weak. Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is also under pressure. The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts for coke in September. However, due to factors such as the upcoming National Day and winter storage, and the "anti - involution" policy, the downward space may be limited [4]. - Iron ore prices are in a shock range. Although iron ore supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, the pre - National Day restocking demand provides some support. The 01 contract still has effective support at the bottom [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On September 4, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3167 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.03%); HC2605 closed at 3325 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan (0.27%); J2605 closed at 1677.5 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan (- 1.06%); JM2605 closed at 1149.5 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (- 1.29%). For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3117 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (- 0.06%); HC2601 closed at 3313 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan (0.24%); J2601 closed at 1581.5 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 1.37%); JM2601 closed at 1094.5 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 1.97%) [1]. - The cross - month spreads on September 4 were: RB2601 - 2605 was - 50 yuan/ton, HC2601 - 2605 was - 12 yuan/ton, J2601 - 2605 was - 96 yuan/ton, JM2601 - 2605 was - 55 yuan/ton [1]. - The spread/ratio/profit on September 4: the coil - to - rebar spread was 196 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.94, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.44, the rebar futures profit was - 37.48 yuan/ton, and the coking futures profit was 125.82 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - On September 4, the spot prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou rebar were 3210 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2960 yuan/ton, and the Platts Index was 105.1 [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coils were 3370 yuan/ton, 3420 yuan/ton, and 3360 yuan/ton respectively; the billet - to - product spread was 250 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 777 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot prices of Super Special Powder at Qingdao Port, etc. were 670 yuan/ton, 715 yuan/ton, etc.; the price of coking coal at Ganqimaodu was 1180 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1530 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 777 yuan/ton [1]. - On September 4, the basis of HC, RB, J, and JM main contracts were 57 yuan/ton, 93 yuan/ton, 98.66 yuan/ton, and 115.5 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, adopt a wait - and - see approach on a single - side basis and use futures or options for hedging at appropriate times [2][6]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, short on rallies [6]. - For coking coal and coke, gradually take profit on previous short positions and consider batch - wise layout of medium - term long positions [6].

Group 1: Report Core View - PX-naphtha spread has expanded, and the weakness of benzene price has restrained the further increase of PX output. The PX-MX spread has rebounded, and the downstream load of polyester has remained at around 88%. Domestic PTA plants have gradually resumed operation, and domestic PTA output has increased. With the recent improvement in sales and inventory reduction, especially the significant reduction of filament inventory, profits have been significantly repaired. However, the maintenance expectation of some downstream devices is relatively strong [2] Group 2: Data Comparison of Key Indicators Price Indicators - PTA spot price dropped from 4705 to 4620, a decrease of 85 [2] - MEG domestic price rose from 4435 to 4451, an increase of 16 [2] - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price dropped from 6575 to 6510, a decrease of 65 [2] - Polyester bottle chip price in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang market dropped, with the average price down 50 yuan/ton [2] Spread and Cash Flow Indicators - Short fiber basis increased from 66 to 91, an increase of 25 [2] - 9 - 10 spread decreased from 94 to 98, a decrease of 4 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 408 to 427, an increase of 19.32 [2] Load and Production and Sales Indicators - Direct-spun short fiber load increased from 90.60% to 91.10%, an increase of 0.01 [3] - Polyester short fiber production and sales decreased from 45.00% to 41.00%, a decrease of 4.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate increased from 62.00% to 62.80%, an increase of 0.01 [3] - Regenerated cotton-type load index increased from 49.00% to 49.50%, an increase of 0.01 [3]