Group 1: Report's Core View - Sino-US trade negotiations have made progress, but the situation has not exceeded market expectations, and market optimism has declined [2] - PTA supply has slightly contracted, polyester production is stable, and polyester load remains above 90%. China's polyester exports are still optimistic [2] - Although there are rumors that polyester will fight against involution, due to the lack of more information from the meeting, PTA processing fees have been compressed to less than 200. The industry profit is still constrained by over - capacity caused by new device commissioning [2] - Despite the end of the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", export demand may improve under the background of the easing of the Sino - US trade war. The current peak season in the downstream weaving industry is expected to last until November [2] Group 2: Data Summary Spot Price and Closing Price - PTA spot price increased from 4510 to 4535, and the closing price rose from 4586 to 4596 [2] - MEG inner - market price decreased from 4106 to 4068, and the closing price dropped from 4018 to 3970 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6405 to 6390 [2] Other Indicators - Short - fiber basis decreased from 174 to 131, and the 12 - 1 spread decreased from 38 to 46 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246 [2] - Polyester bottle sheet average price in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained flat, and the spot processing fee increased from 466 to 475 [2] - T32S pure - polyester yarn price and 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged [2] - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 1005 to 990 [2] Load and Production and Sales - Direct - spinning staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 93.90% to 94.40% [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 49.00% to 47.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained at 63.50%, and recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) increased from 51.00% to 51.50% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester production is stable, and polyester load remains above 90%. Although there are rumors of anti - involution in the polyester industry, PTA processing fees have been compressed to less than 200 due to lack of information. Industry profits are still affected by over - capacity. In the context of the easing of the Sino - US trade war, export demand may improve, and the current peak season is expected to last until November [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory at East China ports is still low, port arrivals are limited, and overseas imports are expected to decline. New capacity puts pressure on prices, and low inventory is mainly reflected in the basis. The increase in coal prices does not provide strong cost support, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. Sino - US trade negotiations may increase export demand for textile and clothing [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 458.7 yuan/barrel on October 31, 2025, to 467.9 yuan/barrel on November 3, 2025, an increase of 9.2 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA futures price rose slightly, with the main contract rising from 4586 yuan/ton to 4596 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The spot price rose from 4510 yuan/ton to 4535 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased from 122.1 yuan/ton to 148.2 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee increased from 198.1 yuan/ton to 214.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG**: The main contract price of MEG decreased from 4018 yuan/ton to 3970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton. The domestic market price decreased from 4106 yuan/ton to 4068 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price decreased from 820 to 819, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 249 to 239 [2]. - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price increased by 100 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F price increased by 20 yuan/ton, and DTY150D/48F price increased by 30 yuan/ton. The cash flow of POY, FDY, and DTY all improved [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 15 yuan/ton, and the cash flow decreased by 23 yuan/ton [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the cash flow decreased by 3 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Industry Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 86.21%, PTA start - up rate remained at 79.66%, MEG start - up rate remained at 64.41%, and polyester load increased from 89.34% to 89.56%, an increase of 0.22% [2]. 3.3 Transaction Suggestions - For PTA, although the Sino - US trade negotiations have made progress, the market's optimistic sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to whether the reduction of Sino - US tariffs can further stimulate domestic exports [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the low inventory situation and the impact of new capacity on prices should be concerned [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the natural rubber industry is "oscillating", with a trading strategy of "going long" for single - side trading and "waiting and seeing" for arbitrage [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by external macro - disturbances, rubber prices fluctuated widely. Driven by macro - level and fundamental factors in the natural rubber market, rubber prices continued to rise. However, due to the impact of typhoons and heavy rainfall in overseas and domestic production areas, raw material supply was restricted, and processing plants' eagerness to purchase raw materials at higher prices strengthened cost - side support [6]. - Currently, raw material prices have strong support, mid - stream inventories are continuously decreasing, downstream demand remains stable, and the sentiment in the commodity market has improved. In the short term, rubber prices may maintain a relatively strong performance [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. In domestic production areas, raw material prices in Yunnan and Hainan increased. In Thailand, although the northeast had normal supply growth, the south faced supply constraints due to heavy rainfall, and raw material prices rose. In Vietnam, raw material supply was tight due to excessive rainfall, and prices were firm [3]. - **Demand**: Neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rates of Chinese all - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased slightly. It is expected that the capacity utilization rates will fluctuate slightly in the next period, and some enterprises may reduce production or conduct maintenance in November [3]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 1.1 million tons, a decline of 1%. The warehouse receipt inventory of RU on the SHFE decreased, while that of 20 - number rubber increased [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. After the holiday, the spread between RU and mixed rubber widened, and the spread between the main contracts of RU and NR also widened [3]. - **Profit**: Bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber and domestic concentrated latex narrowed, while the loss of the delivery profit of Yunnan whole - milk latex improved [3]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3]. - **Commodity Market**: Neutral. The suspension of relevant Sino - US tariff policies has reduced previous negative disturbances, and the sentiment in the commodity market has improved [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Affected by macro and fundamental factors, rubber prices continued to rise. As of October 31, the RU main contract closed at 15,085 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 250 yuan/ton (-1.63%), and the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,230 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 275 yuan/ton (-2.20%) [6]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices rebounded and rose [9]. - **Position**: RU positions were low, and NR positions decreased. The spread between RU and NR widened [17][24][31]. 3.3 Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas caused disturbances, affecting raw material supply [40]. - **Main Producing Countries' Output**: In August, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 6.855 million tons (+1.76%) [63]. - **Main Producing Countries' Exports**: In August, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 6.325 million tons (+4.25%) [73]. - **China's Imports**: From January to September, China imported 4.7172 million tons of natural rubber (+19.65%). In September, the import volume increased significantly, and Thailand was the largest source country [86][92][99]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: China's social inventory continued to decline. As of October 26, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber was 1.0389 million tons, a decline of 1% [100][108]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises remained stable. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%. It is expected to fluctuate slightly in the next period [109][117]. - **Downstream Tire Inventory**: Tire inventories in Shandong decreased slightly [118]. - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In September, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and in August, heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year [126][136]. - **Tire Exports**: From January to September, China exported 7.28 million tons of rubber tires (+5%) [137][145]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber decreased, and the delivery profit of whole - milk latex was in a loss state [147]. - **Futures - Spot Spread**: The spread between Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber declined [168].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US trade negotiation has made some progress, but the situation exceeding market expectations has not occurred, and market optimism has declined [2]. - The PTA supply side has slightly shrunk, polyester production has remained stable, and the polyester load has been maintained above 90%. The export of domestic polyester remains optimistic [2]. - Although there have been rumors that polyester will fight against involution, due to the lack of more information on anti - involution in the meeting, the PTA processing fee has been compressed to less than 200. Industry profits are still constrained by over - capacity due to new device commissioning [2]. - Despite the end of the "Golden September and Silver October", against the background of the easing of the Sino - US trade war, export demand may improve. Recently, downstream weaving has performed well, and the current peak season is expected to last until November [2]. - Attention should be paid to whether the reduction of Sino - US tariffs can further stimulate domestic exports. The costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow [2][3]. Group 3: Summary of Related Data Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4535 to 4510, a decrease of 25 [2]. - MEG domestic price decreased from 4147 to 4106, a decrease of 41 [2]. - PTA closing price increased from 4570 to 4586, an increase of 16 [2]. - MEG closing price decreased from 4032 to 4018, a decrease of 14 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6430 to 6405, a decrease of 25 [2]. - Short - fiber basis increased from 140 to 174, an increase of 34 [2]. - 11 - 12 spread decreased from 28 to 46 (the description in the text may have an error, assuming it is a decrease of 18) [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash - flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5400 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 1030 to 1005, a decrease of 25 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5714 to 5698, a decrease of 16 [2]. - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5714 to 5698, a decrease of 16 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5814 to 5798, a decrease of 16 [2]. - Outer - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 760 [2]. - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 447 to 466, an increase of 19.11 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10320 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3890 to 3915, an increase of 25 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300 [2]. - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14545 to 14540, a decrease of 5 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1539 to 1557, an increase of 18.46 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price increased from 7010 to 7020, an increase of 10 [2]. - Hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash - flow increased from 543 to 588, an increase of 45.11 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point short - fiber price increased from 7420 to 7480, an increase of 60 [2]. Market Conditions - In the short - fiber market, the price of polyester staple fiber production factories has remained stable, the price of traders has declined, downstream buyers have purchased as needed, and the market transaction has been tepid. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market is between 6160 - 6510 (cash on the spot, tax - included, self - pickup), in the North China market is between 6280 - 6630 (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered), and in the Fujian market is between 6170 - 6400 (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered) [2]. - In the bottle chip market, the mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is between 5680 - 5820 yuan/ton, with the average price decreasing by 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. PTA and bottle chip futures have fluctuated weakly in a narrow range, the market trading atmosphere has been cold, the purchasing willingness of downstream terminals has been low, and the market center of gravity has shifted down [2]. Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - The direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 93.90% to 94.40%, an increase of 0.01 [3]. - The polyester staple fiber sales ratio increased from 43.00% to 49.00%, an increase of 6.00% [3]. - The polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50% [3]. - The recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 51.00%, a decrease of 0.01 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The shipping market is affected by multiple factors. The easing of Sino - US trade policies has released positive signals, but the short - term nature of the agreement may not bring long - term confidence to importers. The EC market is in a volatile state, and in the short - term, macro - level positives, capacity control, and multiple price - support expectations will support the market, but the market has already factored in some premiums [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1551, up 10.49% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1021, up 2.89%. Rates for various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe have all increased significantly [3][4] - **Contract Data**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., most have seen a decline in value compared to the previous period. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1379.6, down 1.69% from the previous value. In terms of positions, most contracts have increased in position size, such as EC2606 with a position increase of 110 [4][5] - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The 12 - 02 month - to - month spread is currently 250.4, down 10.4 from the previous value; the 12 - 04 spread is 642.9, down 25.0; and the 02 - 04 spread is 392.5, down 14.6 [5] Market Analysis - **Sino - US Trade Policy Impact**: The Sino - US leaders' meeting on October 30 led to the relaxation of some trade policies, which alleviated the suppression of trans - oceanic cargo volume by trade frictions. Although the direct impact is concentrated on US routes, it also improves the outlook for European routes. However, the short - term nature of the agreement may not provide long - term confidence to importers [5] - **EC Market**: The EC market is in a volatile state. Spot prices vary among different shipping companies. Key influencing factors include the fulfillment of peak - season demand, the sustainability of shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term contract variables. The recommendation is to go long on the main contract at low prices and closely monitor suspension of voyages and shipping company loading rates [6] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core View of the Report In the short - term, with the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the overall better - than - expected third - quarter report earnings, market sentiment may shift from relative optimism to caution, and various asset prices are expected to be in a volatile stage. Policy support and abundant macro - liquidity provide support for the market, but there are also factors that suppress price increases in different sectors [1]. Summary by Related Categories Macro - finance - **Stock index**: In the short - term, the stock index may enter a volatile stage to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement, with strong support below due to policy protection and abundant macro - liquidity [1]. - **Treasury bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and gradually stabilize [1]. - **Silver**: With multiple factors in play, the silver price may remain volatile [1]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The macro - positive sentiment has been digested, and the copper price has corrected, but the downward space is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: There is limited industrial - side drive recently, and after the digestion of macro - positives, the aluminum price fluctuates [1]. - **Alumina**: Domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, with both production and inventory increasing, and the fundamental weakness pressures the spot price. Attention should be paid to cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The overall macro - positive sentiment has been digested, and the LME zinc squeeze risk has decreased but still exists. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to maintain high - level volatility [1]. - **Nickel**: The short - term nickel price may be dominated by macro factors and oscillate, with high inventory still suppressing. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and there is still pressure from long - term primary nickel surplus [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The short - term stainless steel futures may oscillate. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for opportunities to sell at high prices for hedging [1]. - **Tin**: Considering the unrepaired raw material end and good new - demand expectations, it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low levels in the long - term [1]. - **Industrial silicon**: Northwest production capacity is resuming, polysilicon production in November is decreasing, and it is affected by the spill - over of polysilicon [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation increases marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The new energy vehicle peak season is approaching, energy storage demand is strong, but there is high hedging pressure [1]. Black metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the realization of macro - sentiment, attention should be paid to upward pressure [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Attention should be paid to upward pressure after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - **Iron ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward potential due to good commodity sentiment [1]. - **Coke**: Direct demand is good with cost support, but high supply and inventory accumulation put pressure on the sector [1]. - **Glass**: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates price fluctuations [1]. - **Coking coal**: Coking coal is challenging the previous high, but there is uncertainty about whether it can break through. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures are at a premium. Industrial customers can consider selling some spot for hedging when the price rises [1]. Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: It still faces the dual pressure of seasonal production increase and weak exports in the short - term, but may rebound if export data improves in November [1]. - **Soybean oil**: The agreement to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months may bring a loose supply expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders and Canadian rapeseed harvest put pressure on the market [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The current price has fully priced in the selling pressure, and the downward space is limited, but the basis and price may be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices have seasonal upward momentum in the short - term, but the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Soybean meal**: The domestic soybean meal price is expected to rebound to repair the crushing margin, but the supply situation restricts the rebound height [1]. - **Paper pulp**: The trading logic is about the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. It is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live pigs**: The short - term futures price may weaken following the spot price, and there is still pressure on slaughter in November [1]. Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, geopolitical speculation has cooled, and market sentiment has eased [1]. - **Asphalt**: In the short - term, it follows crude oil, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, with sufficient supply of Ma Rui crude oil [1]. - **Natural rubber**: It is supported by raw material costs, with decreasing intermediate inventory and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR rubber**: The cost support of butadiene has declined, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose [1]. - **PTA**: The news of the "anti - involution" policy and production cuts have pushed up the price [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: It follows the decline of crude oil prices, but coal - based cost support has strengthened, and polyester demand has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: It follows the cost closely, and the basis has strengthened with the rise of PTA price [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window is closed, and the profit of styrene has decreased [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, and there is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and "anti - involution" [1]. - **PVC**: The market has returned to fundamentals, with reduced maintenance, more near - month warehouse receipts, and a weakening trend [1]. - **Caustic soda**: There are plans for alumina production in Guangxi, less concentrated maintenance, and problems with warehouse receipt digestion [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic market is also in a loose state [1]. - **Container shipping (European line)**: The price has fallen to a low level, and there is a possibility of a rebound. It is entering the contract - changing stage and is expected to stop falling [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the expectation that the supply of oils and fats in both the producing regions and the domestic market will be abundant, oils and fats, mainly palm oil and rapeseed oil, are expected to continue to weaken. It is recommended to short-term short, and exit when the price in the producing regions stabilizes or there is new positive driving force [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil is neutral to bearish, soybean oil is neutral to bearish, and rapeseed oil is bearish. Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil producing regions have high inventories, and the expected imports to China in the fourth quarter will increase. China is expected to import 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, but it is uncertain how much will enter commercial crushing. There are expectations of reconciliation between China and Canada, and the bumper harvest in producing regions such as Canada and Australia this year is marginally bearish [5]. - **Demand**: It is in a wait - and - see state. In the producing regions, Indonesia's biodiesel policy is being actively promoted, and B40 provides support, but the implementation time of B50 is far away and difficult to drive. Due to the US government shutdown, the biodiesel RVO originally scheduled to be finalized on October 31 has not been determined. The domestic peak season is lackluster, and the domestic demand for oils and fats in the fourth quarter is difficult to drive, but there is an expected increase in soybean oil exports [5]. - **Inventory**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is still at a high level. Rapeseed oil is continuously destocking due to raw material shortages. Palm oil has the expectation of restocking due to a large number of vessel purchases by traders. For soybean oil, it is necessary to pay attention to the destination of imported US soybeans (state reserve/commercial crushing) [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The Sino - US trade agreement stipulates that China will repurchase US soybeans, which has a phased impact on CBOT soybeans and Brazilian premiums. Indonesia officially announced that B50 is in the road test phase and is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year, but some analysts believe there are still obstacles to implementation next year. The US biodiesel RVO is still uncertain. There are expectations of reconciliation in Sino - Canadian trade relations, which is bearish for rapeseed oil [5]. - **Investment View**: Short - term shorting is recommended [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short palm oil and rapeseed oil. For arbitrage, go long Y01 and short P01. For options, buy call options for protection. Risk factors to focus on include unexpected production cuts and policy disturbances [5]. PART TWO: Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of oils and fats and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences of different contracts such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, and OI1 - 5, and the spot price differences of domestic soybean oil and palm oil. The data sources are Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [7][9][14]. PART THREE: Fundamental Analysis of Oils and Fats Supply and Demand - **Southeast Asian Weather**: It shows the precipitation and temperature data of Southeast Asia in the past and future periods, including the precipitation in the past 14 days, the precipitation anomaly in the past 14 days, the precipitation forecast in the next 7 days, the temperature anomaly in the next 7 days, and the precipitation and temperature anomaly in the next 8 - 14 days [18][20][21]. - **Indonesian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It presents the monthly data of Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025. The data source is GAPKI and the research institute of Guomao Futures [29][33][31]. - **Malaysian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It shows the monthly data of Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025. The data source is MPOB and the research institute of Guomao Futures [34][40][39]. - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Price Difference**: It presents the monthly import volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in India from 2021 to 2025, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil. The data source is Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [41][45][44]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: It shows the cumulative import volume, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume of palm oil in China from 2021 to 2025. The data source is Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [47][51][58]. - **Weather and US Soybean Production Situation**: It presents the temperature and precipitation distribution in the US and Brazilian soybean - producing regions in the next 15 days, as well as the US soybean good - to - excellent rate and harvest progress from 2021 to 2025 [59][61][67]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: It shows the cumulative export sales volume, cumulative export volume, and export volume to China of US soybeans, as well as the monthly export volume and CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2026. The data sources are USDA, ANEC, Steel Union, and the research institute of Guomao Futures [71][76][82]. - **China's Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: It presents China's weekly soybean arrival volume, weekly soybean oil production of domestic crushers, daily trading volume of domestic soybean oil, and weekly soybean oil inventory of Chinese crushers from 2021 to 2025 [86]. - **Canadian and European Rapeseed Situation**: It shows the precipitation forecast, precipitation distribution, and temperature distribution in the Canadian and European rapeseed - producing regions in the next 15 days, as well as the Canadian soil moisture [87][96]. - **Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation**: It presents the FOB price of rapeseed, weekly export volume of Canadian rapeseed, export volume of Canadian rapeseed oil, import hedging profit of Canadian rapeseed, expected domestic arrival volume of rapeseed, and domestic arrival volume of rapeseed oil. The data sources are public information and the research institute of Guomao Futures [99][101][111]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: It shows the weekly crushing volume of Chinese rapeseed, weekly production volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, and weekly inventory of domestic rapeseed oil from 2021 to 2025 [105][108].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force, and the price is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline, and the futures market is oscillating weakly. The supply has increased due to reduced maintenance and higher production. The demand is mixed, with alumina开工 declining and non - aluminum demand weak in some aspects, while other downstream industries show some improvements. Inventory has accumulated, and profits have decreased. The overall market is expected to be in a state of oscillation [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is neutral. This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 24,000 tons to 830,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more of caustic soda was 84.3%, a week - on - week increase of 3.5%. Most regions saw an increase in load, except for Central China [3]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. Alumina开工 decreased, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03%. The comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 68.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.01%. The monthly开工 rate of lithium hydroxide in China in June 2025 was about 49.27%, and the overall output was basically flat after offsetting increases and decreases [3]. - **Inventory**: It is bearish. Recently, the shipment pressure increased, and caustic soda inventory accumulated. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more was 442,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.84% and a year - on - year increase of 52.42%. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 25.75%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56% [3]. - **Basis**: It is neutral. The current basis of the main contract is around 95, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. - **Profit**: It is bearish. The weekly average gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 292 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17%. Liquid chlorine prices rose, and caustic soda prices fell, leading to a decline in overall chlor - alkali profits [3]. - **Valuation**: It is bearish. The spot price is neutral, and the absolute futures price is low. The near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - **Macro Policy**: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has subsided, and the futures market trades based on fundamentals [3]. - **Investment View**: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: There are no unilateral or arbitrage strategies at present. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession [3]. Part Two: Futures and Spot Market Review - The futures market oscillated within a range. This week, the spot price in Shandong was stable with a slight increase, while the futures price hit a new low. The liquid chlorine subsidy was less, and the liquid chlorine price rose to 350 yuan/ton. Chlor - alkali profits remained high, and factory开工 loads remained high. Demand reached the turning point between peak and off - peak seasons. In the future, the new maintenance intensity of alumina will increase, and the supply and demand of caustic soda will turn to be loose. The spot price is expected to be stable with a slight decline. Future attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine and the alumina production start - up rhythm [6]. Part Three: Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply was tight, and electricity prices rose [29]. - **Device Loss and Production**: In the main production areas, maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased [34]. - **Chlor - Alkali Profit**: Chlor - alkali comprehensive profits decreased [42]. - **Downstream Price**: Alumina prices declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [45]. - **Alumina**: Alumina开工 recovered, and inventory accumulated. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the alumina开工 rate in Henan increased significantly. Alumina supply - demand balance was restored, inventory accumulated, port bauxite inventory decreased, and alumina profits were good and remained stable year - on - year [57][68]. - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum开工 remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum demand entered the seasonal off - peak season, and开工 began to decline [69]. - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The开工 rate rebounded [78]. - **Subsequent Maintenance Information**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have planned or are expected to carry out maintenance in October and November [82].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PTA: Sino-US trade negotiations have progressed, but the market's optimistic sentiment has declined as the outcome did not exceed expectations. PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester production is stable with a load above 90%, and domestic polyester exports remain optimistic. However, PTA processing fees have been compressed below 200 due to lack of anti - involution information. Industry profits are affected by over - capacity from new installations. The current peak season in the downstream weaving industry may last until November, and attention should be paid to whether tariff cuts can boost domestic exports [2]. - Ethylene glycol: The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports remains low, with limited port arrivals and expected decline in overseas imports. New installations are pressuring prices, and the spot tightness due to low inventory is mainly reflected in the basis. Coal price increases have not provided strong cost support, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been restored. Tariff cuts from the Sino - US trade deal may increase textile and clothing export demand [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price decreased from 458.9 yuan/barrel on October 30, 2025, to 458.7 yuan/barrel on October 31, 2025, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased by 17.45 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0054. PTA主力期价 rose by 16 yuan/ton, while the spot price dropped by 25 yuan/ton. Spot processing fees decreased by 42 yuan/ton, and the PTA仓单数量 increased by 806 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price increased by 3, and the PX - naphtha spread increased by 3 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased by 14 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton, and MEG内盘 decreased by 41 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industry Chain开工情况**: PTA开工率 decreased by 0.43% to 79.66%, MEG开工率 remained unchanged at 64.41%, and polyester负荷 increased slightly by 0.06% to 89.34% [2]. - **Polyester Products**: - **Polyester Filament**: POY, FDY, and DTY prices remained stable, while their cash flows increased by 35. The long - filament sales rate remained at 43% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D直纺涤短 price decreased by 25, and the cash flow increased by 10. The short - fiber sales rate increased from 42% to 49% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The semi - bright chip price decreased by 5, and the cash flow increased by 30. The chip sales rate decreased from 46% to 45% [2]. Device Status - An East China PTA device with a capacity of 2.2 million tons has slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on styrene is "oscillating", with an expected bearish trend due to weakening costs [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of styrene are weak, leading to a decline in the prices of pure benzene and styrene. Multiple factors including supply, demand, basis, profit, and macro - policies contribute to the bearish sentiment, while inventory and valuation are neutral [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The economic performance of styrene is poor. The spread between styrene and naphtha has narrowed to about $249, and the spread between styrene and benzene has slightly widened to $132. Non - integrated production profits remain negative [4]. - **Demand**: Port inventories have decreased slightly, but market expectations are poor. As of October 27, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 14.14% month - on - month and 10.53% year - on - year. Due to profit contraction, there are more rumors of supply - side maintenance, and overseas demand is still declining [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 27, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.69% from the previous period, and the commercial inventory decreased by 1.22% [4]. - **Basis**: The styrene basis has strengthened slightly. Although there are expectations of inventory reduction for pure benzene and styrene, the arrival of the consumption off - season and pessimistic demand expectations have led to a pessimistic market sentiment [4]. - **Profit**: The spread between styrene and naphtha is about $249, and the spread between benzene and naphtha is about $132 [4]. - **Valuation**: Crude oil prices have rebounded, and overseas pure benzene continues to flow in. The demand side has become an obvious constraint on styrene prices [4]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - policy is bearish, and the market sentiment is pessimistic [4]. - **Investment view**: Styrene costs are weakening, and it is expected to be mainly bearish, with an oscillating trend [4]. - **Trading strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - **Crude oil**: The US and Europe have imposed sanctions on mainstream Russian crude oil companies, and North American crude oil inventories have decreased [6]. - **Styrene**: The integrated profit of styrene has rebounded, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The price of pure benzene has continued to decline due to the drag of derivative demand [13][24][36]. 3.3 Overview of Polymer Demand - **Styrene downstream - ABS**: Supply tightening is limited, and demand is weak in the off - season. Capacity utilization, production gross margin, and factory inventory show corresponding trends [50]. - **Styrene downstream - PS**: Inventory pressure has eased, and profits have slightly recovered [60]. - **Styrene downstream - EPS**: Inventory has accumulated, and production has rebounded [71]. - **Pure benzene - Aniline**: Production gross margin has recovered [81]. - **Phenol**: Port inventory has further declined [92]. - **Adipic acid**: Production load has declined [102]. - **Caprolactam**: Production load has declined, and inventory has decreased [113]. - **Household appliances**: Export demand has declined [122]. - **Overall situation**: Sino - US trade disputes have eased, but the pure benzene and styrene markets continue to decline. Styrene production profits are under pressure, with high total inventory. Supply has tightened in the short term, but downstream demand is weak [127].