Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The supply of pulp is relatively loose, with the import quotes showing a decrease in softwood pulp and an increase in hardwood pulp. The domestic pulp production in October 2025 was 208.4 million tons, a 10.2% increase from the previous month [4]. - The demand is weak. Except for white cardboard, the production and prices of other wood - pulp papers have not risen significantly. Paper mills maintain just - in - time replenishment, which does not boost the pulp price [4]. - The inventory has a narrow - range accumulation trend. As of October 30, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 206.1 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period [4]. - The investment view is to adopt a 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage strategy for pulp futures. The pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force and the pressure of old warehouse receipts is high, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The import quotes from Chile's Arauco in October showed a decline in softwood pulp and an increase in hardwood pulp. The domestic pulp production in October 2025 was 208.4 million tons, a 10.2% month - on - month increase, indicating a relatively loose supply [4]. - **Demand**: Except for white cardboard, other wood - pulp papers' production and prices did not rise significantly. Paper mills maintained just - in - time replenishment, having no positive impact on the pulp price [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 206.1 million tons, a 0.6 - million - ton increase from the previous period and a 0.3% month - on - month increase, showing a narrow - range accumulation trend [4]. - **Investment View**: A 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage strategy is recommended for pulp futures. The pulp futures are at an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force and high pressure from old warehouse receipts, so it is advisable to wait and see. The risk to focus on is the de - stocking of pulp warehouse receipts [4]. 2. Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Market Trend**: Pulp prices fluctuated at a low level this week. The fundamentals remained stable, and some spot price bases increased slightly. The problem of old warehouse receipts was not resolved, suppressing the near - month contract prices. The 01 contract was close to the cost of Canadian softwood pulp warehouse receipts, with limited upward space [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week and down 100 yuan/ton from the previous month. The price of softwood pulp Buzhen was 4,880 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous week and down 50 yuan/ton from the previous month. The price of hardwood pulp Jinyu was 4,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week and the previous month [16]. - **External Quotes**: In October, the price of hardwood pulp increased, while the external quotes of softwood pulp decreased. Chile's Arauco quoted 680 US dollars/ton for softwood pulp Silver Star, 540 US dollars/ton for hardwood pulp Star, and 590 US dollars/ton for natural pulp Venus [19]. - **Open Interest**: As of October 31, 2025, the total open interest of pulp futures contracts was 325,633, a 7.73% decrease from the previous week. The open interest of the main pulp futures contract was 155,284 lots, a 1.97% decrease from the previous week [24]. 3. Pulp Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In September, the import volume of pulp and wood chips increased. The total pulp import volume was 2.952 billion tons, a 11.27% increase. The softwood pulp import volume was 691 million tons, a 12.54% increase, and the hardwood pulp import volume was 1.356 billion tons, a 7.79% increase [5]. - **Inventory**: The pulp port inventory slightly decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts was stable. Overseas, the inventory of softwood pulp mills increased, while that of hardwood pulp mills remained stable. As of the end of August, the inventory of commodity pulp suppliers in 20 countries was 48 days, with 52 days for bleached softwood pulp and 46 days for bleached hardwood pulp [35][40]. - **Downstream Demand**: The price of white cardboard increased, while other paper types remained stable. In September 2025, the production of double - offset paper was 729 million tons, a 0.7% month - on - month increase; copperplate paper was 385 million tons, a 2.7% month - on - month increase; tissue paper was 840 million tons, a 14.8% month - on - month increase; and white cardboard was 984 million tons, a 2.8% month - on - month increase. The inventory of white cardboard decreased, while other paper types remained stable [41][48]. 4. Pulp Futures Valuation - **Basis and Spread**: As of October 31, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian softwood pulp was - 332 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis of Shandong Silver Star was 308 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous week. The 11 - 1 spread of pulp was - 374 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [82]. - **Import Profit**: As of October 31, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp was 3.58 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The import profit of hardwood pulp was 35 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous week [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the polyester industry is "oscillating", with no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate. The trading strategy for the unilateral position is to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester market is affected by multiple factors. The supply of PTA has slightly shrunk, the downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, the port inventory of PTA has slightly increased, the basis of PTA has stabilized, and the profit has continued to shrink. The price of PX has rebounded, and the profit has been significantly repaired. The market is expected to mainly oscillate due to the lack of obvious driving forces [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply of domestic PTA devices has slightly shrunk, the PTA basis has stabilized, and the operating rate of PX devices has been stable, with the PXN expanding. It is bearish [5]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the downstream weaving has performed well recently. It is expected that the current peak season can last until November. It is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has slightly increased, with a 50,000 - ton increase in inventory this week. It is neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has quickly stabilized, and the PTA profit has continued to shrink. It is bearish [5]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha is $250, and the processing fee of PTA remains below 200 yuan. It is bearish [5]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a neutral - low level, the profit of the reforming device has declined, and the anti - involution news has disturbed the market, causing the absolute price of PTA to rebound. It is neutral [5]. - **Macro Policy**: On October 30 local time, the Chinese and US presidents held a meeting. It is neutral [5]. - **Investment View**: There is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: The unilateral position should wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: North American crude oil inventories are at a recent low, and the US has imposed new sanctions on two Russian oil companies. The market fundamentals support oil prices, with a decrease in US crude oil inventories and a large drop in gasoline inventories, both slightly below the five - year average level. The refinery operating rate has risen from 85.7% to 88.6%. Crude oil and gasoline markets have strengthened under the tightening supply and geopolitical risks, but the reforming oil has performed relatively weakly [7][29]. - **Gasoline**: US gasoline inventories are approaching a low point. North American refinery loads have declined, and gasoline cracking profits have strengthened. The premium of reforming oil to RBOB has narrowed, the octane number profit rate of the reforming device has increased, and the refinery's oil - blending efficiency has improved. However, the reforming oil performance reflects that the oil - blending demand has not fully followed up [11][17][29]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Aromatic Hydrocarbons**: The supply of xylene has increased, and the weakness of aromatic hydrocarbons has continued. The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons has opened, but physical trade has not occurred. The price of pure benzene continues to suppress the disproportionation profit, and the profit of the STDP device is negative. Some producers have reduced the load of the reforming device due to the average profit of benzene [37][47][62]. - **PX**: It is the core of the price fluctuation in the polyester industry. After the listing of PX futures, its pricing is closely linked to futures. The PX spot trading is active, the price has significantly rebounded, and the profit has been significantly repaired. However, attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream demand and geopolitical supply disturbances [58][67]. - **PTA**: Due to the large domestic PTA production capacity, the processing interval of PTA has long been maintained below 500 yuan. With the launch of new devices and new production capacities, the option - based income - enhancement scheme is increasingly widely used in the market [58][66]. - **Short Fibers and Bottle Chips**: They are in the production capacity launch cycle. Since the domestic downstream demand is relatively stable, overseas demand has become an important variable. With the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the industry has found new export opportunities and sales growth points in countries along the "Belt and Road" [58][66]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still at a low level, the port arrivals are still limited, and the import volume of ethylene glycol in the overseas market is expected to decline. New device launches have continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price. The coal price has risen, but it has not provided stronger cost support for ethylene glycol, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [87]. - **Gasoline**: The profit of Asian gasoline has significantly rebounded due to the reduction in domestic exports [89]. - **Polyester**: Polyester continues to maintain a high load, and the weaving load remains optimistic. The production of polyester has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the export performance after the tariff adjustment. The domestic polyester export is still optimistic, but the industry profit is still restricted by the over - capacity caused by new device launches [73][96][98].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices have fallen from short - term highs, and asphalt prices have declined overall this week. The supply of asphalt is neutral, demand is bearish, inventory is neutral, and cost is neutral. The overall trend of asphalt continues to fluctuate with crude oil, showing a situation where the peak season is not prosperous [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is rated as neutral. In November 2025, the domestic asphalt refinery production plan is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (18.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons (6.5%). This week, the overall supply slightly increased due to the resumption of production at Zhonghai Yingkou and intermittent production at Jiangsu Xinhai and Sinochem Quanzhou [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. Affected by capital and cold air in the north, the markets in Shandong and North China are sluggish. Shandong stimulates downstream purchases by lowering prices and there is catch - up work after less rainfall. The demand in East China is also weak, with low prices and low shipments. The overall market demand is slowly declining with the drop in temperature. However, the total domestic asphalt shipments this week reached 469,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.3%. Shipments in North China and Northeast China have improved [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. The inventory of asphalt production enterprises has decreased this week, in line with last week's expectations. The inventory in most regions has declined, especially in Shandong. The social inventory has also decreased but does not meet last week's expectations. The social inventory in Shandong has decreased significantly due to improved weather and increased demand for catch - up projects [3] - **Cost**: It is neutral. This week, international oil prices fluctuated upwards. They first rose due to new US sanctions on Russia and upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, then fell due to doubts about the implementation of Russian sanctions, OPEC +'s planned production increase in December, and increased Iraqi oil exports in September, and finally rebounded due to positive EIA inventory data, positive signals from Sino - US and US - South Korea agreements, and the Fed's interest rate cut [3] - **Investment View**: The asphalt market is expected to oscillate. With high supply and declining demand in the north affected by the rainy season, the peak season for asphalt is not prosperous, and its long - term trend continues to follow crude oil [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the outlook is oscillating; for arbitrage, there are no opportunities. Key risks to watch include OPEC + production increases, geopolitical disturbances, and Trump's policies [3] Part Two: Price - There are multiple price charts showing the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions from 2021 to 2025, including national and regional data [5][6][8] Part Two: Spread & Basis & Delivery Profit - **Spread**: There are charts showing the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC * 6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025 [12][13] - **Basis**: There is a chart showing the asphalt basis in major regions from 2024 to 2025 [14] Part Two: Supply - **Scheduled Production Expectation**: There are charts showing the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025, as well as production data in different regions such as North China, South China, Shandong, and East China from 2021 to 2025 [17][21][24] - **Capacity Utilization**: There are charts showing the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [29][33][35] - **Maintenance Loss**: There are charts showing the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [40] Part Two: Cost & Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: There is a chart showing the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [43][44] - **Diluted Asphalt**: There are charts showing the price, premium/discount, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [47][48] Part Three: Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: There are charts showing the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [52][55] - **Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [58] Part Three: Demand - **Shipment Volume**: There are charts showing the shipment volumes of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [61] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: There are charts showing the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [63][64][70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For LLDPE, the short - term market is expected to be volatile with no obvious driving factors. Supply is neutral, demand is positive, inventory is negative, basis is neutral, profit is negative, valuation is negative, and macro - policy is negative [2]. - For PP, the short - term market is also expected to be volatile with no clear drivers. Supply is neutral, demand is positive, inventory is negative, basis is neutral, profit is positive, valuation is negative, and macro - policy is negative [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's polyethylene production was 643,500 tons, a 0.72% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 80.87%, a 0.59 - percentage - point decrease. Some plants were under maintenance, increasing the maintenance loss [2]. - **Demand**: The average downstream product start - up rate of LLDPE/LDPE increased by 1.64%. The overall agricultural film start - up rate increased by 2.75%, and the PE packaging film start - up rate increased by 0.52%. In September, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0222 million tons, a 10.07% year - on - year decrease and a 7.58% month - on - month increase [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 416,000 tons, a 19.16% month - on - month decrease. The social sample warehouse inventory was 527,400 tons, a 3.30% month - on - month decrease and a 9.18% year - on - year decrease. The import cargo warehouse inventory also decreased [2]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 309, and the futures price is at a discount [2]. - **Profit**: The costs of oil - based, coal - based, and ethane - based production increased, while the methanol - based cost decreased. The main reason for the increase in oil prices is the US sanctions on Russia and the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories [2]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to the fundamentals, with the futures price showing a weak and volatile trend [2]. 3.2 PP Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's polypropylene production was 789,200 tons, a 1.49% increase from last week and a 17.79% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate was 77.06%, a 1.12% increase [3]. - **Demand**: The average downstream start - up rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61%. The demand for medical products and cold - chain packaging increased, and the BOPP industry's start - up rate increased steadily. However, the plastic - weaving industry was affected by rainy weather [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 595,100 tons, a 6.80% month - on - month decrease. The port sample inventory decreased by 2.25% month - on - month, and the trader sample inventory decreased by 7.80% month - on - month [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 20, and the futures price is around par [3]. - **Profit**: This week, the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production improved, while the profits of oil - based and PDH - based PP production declined [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to the fundamentals, with the futures price showing a weak and volatile trend [3]. 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes - **Prices**: PP futures price decreased by 1.08%, PE futures price decreased by 1.00%, LLDPE CFR decreased by 1.22%, and ethylene CFR decreased by 3.85% [5]. - **Production and Start - up Rates**: PP production decreased by 5.22%, PE production decreased by 0.72%, PP start - up rate increased by 4.83%, and PE start - up rate decreased by 0.73% [5]. - **Inventory**: PP factory inventory decreased by 5.88%, PE social inventory increased by 0.10%, HDPE social inventory decreased by 3.16% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, frequent macro - news disturbances have led to a significant decline in butadiene prices, deepening the market's pessimistic sentiment and causing a sharp drop in futures prices. Attention should be paid to the spot price adjustment rhythm and the price guidance of natural rubber [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of October 30, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's main sales companies was 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. Although the natural rubber market was strong this period, it failed to drive the butadiene rubber market, and the price difference between the two varieties widened to over 4,000 yuan/ton. The increase in external sales resources of raw materials and the continuous decline in the external market price led to a rapid rise in market bearish sentiment. Affected by the maintenance of Qilu and Yangzi's butadiene rubber plants and future maintenance expectations, the offers of some spot - tight brands in Sinopec and PetroChina and in East and South China were firm, but the rapid weakening of the cost side led to a further decline in the negotiation focus of private resources. The supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's butadiene rubber were under pressure to be lowered, but the large price difference between brands was not significantly improved, and the low - price range transactions in the week gradually weakened. At the end of the period, affected by the news of the Fed's interest rate cut and the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the macro - level partially alleviated the market's bearish sentiment, but it had limited impact on boosting the spot market trading of butadiene rubber [5] 3.2 Price Data - **Butadiene (BD)**: The prices of butadiene from various manufacturers and in different markets showed a downward trend. For example, the ex - factory price of Dalian Hengli decreased by 8.06% week - on - week, and the price of Sinopec East China Yangzi decreased by 12.79% week - on - week [9] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR)**: The ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's BR9000 decreased by 1.79% week - on - week. The market prices in different regions also generally declined, with the largest week - on - week decline of 3.69% in North China [8][9] - **Styrene - Butadiene Rubber (SBR)**: The ex - factory and market prices of SBR also decreased. For example, the ex - factory price of Sinopec North China Qilu 1502 decreased by 1.75% week - on - week [9] 3.3 Device Maintenance - **Butadiene Devices**: Many butadiene devices in China were under maintenance or shutdown in 2025. For example, Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical's devices were shut down, while some devices such as those of Beifang Huajin and Qilu Petrochemical resumed production [3][11] - **Butadiene Rubber Devices**: Some butadiene rubber devices were under maintenance or had future maintenance plans. For example, Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical's butadiene rubber devices were under maintenance, and Zhenhua New Materials' device was expected to be under maintenance in November [3][11] 3.4 Influencing Factors - **Supply**: The supply of butadiene and butadiene rubber was affected by device operations. The output of butadiene increased due to the resumption of some devices, while the output of butadiene rubber was affected by device maintenance [3] - **Demand**: The demand for semi - steel tires was mixed, with the replacement market for all - season tires being weak and the demand for snow tires growing. The demand for all - steel tires was generally weak, with low replenishment willingness from channel merchants [3] - **Inventory**: The butadiene port inventory increased, while the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber in enterprises and traders decreased [3] - **Basis**: The basis of butadiene rubber in North, East, and South China was neutral [3] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The spreads between RU - BR, NR - BR, and the BR - SC ratio were bullish [3] - **Profit**: The production profits of butadiene and butadiene rubber were bearish [3] - **Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee clarified the development goals and key tasks for the 14th Five - Year Plan. The Sino - US leaders' meeting in Busan achieved positive progress, and the sanctions on two Russian refineries by Europe and the United States and India's re - planning of energy procurement plans had a neutral impact on the market [3] 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: No trading strategy was recommended [3] - **Arbitrage Trading**: Attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU [3]

Report Title - "【粕类周报】中美和谈，估值修复" [1] Report Information - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [1] - Research Center: Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures [1] - Analyst: Huang Xianglan [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, the domestic market valuation is low. With China's expectation to purchase US soybeans, the import cost is expected to rise. The futures market is expected to rebound to repair the crushing profit, showing a volatile and slightly upward trend. However, the current loose supply of nearby soybean meal and the expected loose global soybean supply in the distant future limit the upward space of the futures market [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview 3.1.1 Supply - The estimated inventory-to-consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season is 6.9%, with potential for a downward adjustment in the expected yield per acre and an upward adjustment in export expectations. The supply and demand balance sheet of US soybeans is expected to be tight [4]. - As of October 25, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 34.4%, lower than the same period last year and the five-year average. Pay attention to the relatively dry conditions in southern Brazil and the impact of the weak La Niña weather pattern [4]. - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose, and the progress of far - month purchases is slow [4]. - Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease. Pay attention to policy changes. The opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect far - month supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased, and downstream transactions are cautious [4]. - The downstream transactions and pick - up of rapeseed meal are cautious [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, and are expected to start decreasing in November. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have dropped to a low level [4]. - Domestic rapeseed inventory has dropped to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is decreasing, but the inventory level is still at a high level in the same period of previous years [4]. 3.1.4 Basis/Spread - The basis is neutral [4]. 3.1.5 Profit - The crushing profit of Brazilian soybean purchases is poor, while the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed is good [4]. 3.1.6 Valuation - From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively low valuation; from the perspective of basis, the futures price of soybean meal is at a neutral valuation [4]. 3.1.7 Macro and Policy - China has agreed to purchase 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans this season and at least 2.5 billion tons per year in the next three years, which is positive for soybean meal and negative for rapeseed meal [4]. 3.1.8 Investment View - The market is expected to be volatile and slightly upward [4]. 3.1.9 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile and slightly upward; Arbitrage: Wait and see. Pay attention to policies and weather [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply and Demand Data of Meal 3.2.1 Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio - In September, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season increased, while the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased [31]. - The inventory - to - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased in the September report [37]. 3.2.2 Sowing and Yield - The sowing rate and excellent - good rate data of US soybeans are presented, showing the trends in different years [46]. - The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has declined [51]. 3.2.3 Crushing Volume - The NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA monthly US soybean crushing volume data are presented, showing different trends in different years [58]. 3.2.4 Export - This week's US soybean export sales data was not announced. The historical data of US soybean export net sales volume, cumulative export sales volume, and export sales volume to China are presented [64]. 3.2.5 Import - The CNF premium of soybeans and the import cost and crushing profit data of Canadian rapeseed are presented [71][74]. - The monthly import volume data of soybeans, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China are presented [78][80]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Domestic soybean, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal inventory data are presented, showing the high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal and the low inventory of feed enterprises [81]. 3.2.7 Production and Sales - The data of the operating rate and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are presented [92]. - The trading volume and pick - up volume data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented [101][108]. 3.2.8 Price Difference - The price difference data between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented [113]. 3.2.9 Feed Production - The monthly feed production data are presented [114]. 3.2.10 Livestock and Poultry Breeding - The profit data of pig, broiler, and layer breeding, as well as the inventory data of livestock and poultry, are presented. The pig price has slightly rebounded, and the weight reduction is not obvious [116][124][128].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of PVC is "oscillation", indicating that in the short - term, PVC has no obvious driving factors and is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the PVC futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply of PVC remains high, demand is weak, cost support is insufficient, and the fundamentals are weak both in reality and expectation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It has a bearish drive. The domestic PVC spot market has been slightly adjusted this week, with the supply - demand pattern remaining oversupplied. The PVC supply has slightly increased due to maintenance, and the market demand remains dull. The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 78.26%, with the maintenance loss volume decreasing [3]. - **Demand**: It also has a bearish drive. Although downstream demand has slightly improved, the downstream operating rate is still at a low level. Exports have declined, but the export volume from January to August has increased cumulatively [3]. - **Inventory**: It's neutral. The inventory of PVC production enterprises has slightly increased, while the social inventory has slightly decreased [3]. - **Basis**: It's neutral. The basis has weakened significantly, currently at - 128 yuan/ton [3]. - **Profit**: It's bullish. The profits of the two PVC production processes have changed this week, with the profit of the calcium - carbide method decreasing and that of the ethylene method increasing [3]. - **Valuation**: It's neutral. The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the market is oscillating weakly, and the valuation is neutral [3]. - **Macro - policy**: It's neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy - chemical sector has temporarily subsided, but there will be many subsequent macro - events [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short at high prices; for arbitrage, there is currently no suitable strategy [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The PVC powder market has had small fluctuations this week due to the lack of obvious one - sided driving factors. The supply is high, demand is weak, and cost support is insufficient. The fundamentals of PVC powder have changed little, and both the current situation and expectations are weak [6]. 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Output**: After the end of maintenance, the output in the northwest has rebounded [36]. - **Domestic Inventory**: The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased [46]. - **Factory Inventories in Various Regions**: Inventories in various regions have decreased [57]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The average downstream operating rate, pipe operating rate, and profile operating rate are presented in the data, with the operating rates of some downstream industries showing improvement [71]. - **Export**: The export peak season is approaching, but exports have slowed down. There is still profit space for PVC exports, but due to the impact of India's anti - dumping policy and increased export competition pressure, exports are difficult to increase significantly [79][81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, supported by risk - aversion sentiment, loose capital, and policy expectations, Treasury bond futures are expected to continue their strength, but attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of China - US game and the possible fluctuations caused by the release of important domestic economic data [8] - In the long - term, due to insufficient effective demand, deflation is likely to continue, and the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. With the synergy of monetary and fiscal policies and the low - interest - rate environment, the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints - This week, the Treasury bond futures market showed an obvious repair, with relatively balanced increases in various maturity varieties. In the first half of the week, the repair of 3 - 7y Treasury bonds was more significant; in the second half, the repair of ultra - long - term yields was more prominent [4] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected this week but released a cautious signal, leading to a significant cooling of the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut at the end of the year [4] - The China - US summit in Busan, South Korea reached a series of important consensuses in the economic and trade field, which was interpreted by the market as "good news exhausted", bringing a window period for bond repair and stock market adjustment [4] 3.2 Liquidity Tracking The report presents multiple charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (volume and price), medium - term lending facilities (volume and price), capital prices (deposit - type pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, etc.), and the relationship between various interest rates and yields such as LPR, deposit reserve ratio, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [10][12][18] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report shows the basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate of Treasury bond futures for different maturities (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year) [44][52][59][65]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The narrative of strong terminal demand continues, the de - stocking of social inventory increases, and the degree of supply - demand mismatch deepens. However, from a fundamental perspective, the hedging pressure at the upper level is gradually released, weakening the upward momentum. The market has begun to show differences (there are rumors of mine restarts), and further stimulation from funds, events, and news is needed to continue to drive up prices. Otherwise, prices will remain low [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,550 yuan, up 550 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,350 yuan, up 550 yuan [1] - For lithium carbonate futures contracts, the closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 79,300 yuan, with a decline of 3.6%; lithium carbonate 2512 is 80,720 yuan, down 3.33%; lithium carbonate 2601 is 80,780 yuan, down 3.42%; lithium carbonate 2602 is 80,480 yuan, down 3.25%; lithium carbonate 2603 is 80,320 yuan, down 3.21% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 944 yuan, unchanged; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1380 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 2180 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 7400 yuan, down 250 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 8825 yuan, down 250 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 35,940 yuan, up 135 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 157,850 yuan, up 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 139,300 yuan, up 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 137,950 yuan, up 200 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2200 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 230 yuan, with a change of 3170 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 1420 yuan, unchanged; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 1480 yuan, up 80 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 127,358 tons, down 3008 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 32,051 tons, down 1630 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 53,288 tons, down 1987 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 42,020 tons, up 610 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 27,621 tons, down 20 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 80,623 yuan, with a profit of - 1205 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 85,678 yuan, with a profit of - 8291 yuan [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests unilateral and arbitrage to remain on the sidelines [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Macroeconomic disturbances and peak - season expectations are driving the EC main contract to operate strongly. Although the overall demand is neutral, short - term macro - level positives, capacity regulation, and multiple rounds of price - support expectations will continue to support the market. Before the peak - season expectations are disproven, the main contract is likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend, but the market has already factored in a certain premium [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rates**: In early November, MSK quoted $2300, HPL quoted $2150, OOCL quoted $2250, EMC quoted $2500, MSC quoted $2250, YML quoted $1700, and HMM and ONE quoted $1900 [4] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Sino - US trade policy relaxation has released positive signals, but the agreement is short - term and may not lead to significant changes in supply - chain strategies. The US government shutdown has also affected the implementation of tariff policies [4] - **Capacity Supply**: The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000 TEU, 245,000 TEU in October, 265,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [4] - **Demand**: The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years, with significant differences among alliances. Key influencing factors include peak - season demand fulfillment, shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables [5] - **Outlook and Strategy**: Short - term macro - positives, capacity control, and price - support expectations will support the market. It is recommended to try long positions on the main contract at low prices, while closely monitoring suspension of voyages and shipping company loading rates [5] 3.2 Price - The report presents various price charts, including the European Line Index, the US West Line Index, the US East Line Index, and spot quotes from Maersk on the European line [9][15] 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: It shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [18] - **Delivery Volume**: The delivery volume and demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities are presented, as well as future delivery forecasts [21][27] - **Prices**: It includes the scrap price, new - building price, and second - hand ship price of container ships in different loading capacities [34][40] - **Existing Capacity**: The existing capacity of container ships is analyzed in terms of total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, ships over 25 years old, and idle and retrofit ratios [51] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule**: The total capacity deployment and capacity deployment of different alliances on the Shanghai - European Base Port route are shown [64][66] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: It presents the situation of container ships with installed, being - installed, and to - be - installed desulfurization towers in terms of TEU, number of ships, and percentage [74][75] - **Average Speed**: The average speed of container ships and the average speed by loading capacity are provided [79] - **Idle Capacity**: The idle capacity of container ships, including total idle capacity, idle capacity by loading capacity, and idle capacity ratio, is analyzed [82]