Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 needle pulp futures. The futures price may be priced based on the price of Russian needle pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. Maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy [10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On November 5, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2605 were 5360, 4886, and 5374 respectively, with day - on - day increases of 1.36%, 0.29%, and 1.09% and week - on - week increases of 2.25%, 1.20%, and 1.86% respectively. The spot prices of softwood pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and hardwood pulp Goldfish were 5500, 5100, and 4250 respectively, with no day - on - day or week - on - week changes [5] Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 680, 530, and 590 US dollars respectively. The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.86% month - on - month, while that of Brazilian Goldfish increased by 3.92%. The import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5559, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish increasing by 3.87% month - on - month [5] Supply - Side Data - In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a 12.54% increase from August, and the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a 7.79% increase from August. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 increased by 4.50% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed little change in the period from September 4 to October 30, 2025 [5] Inventory Data - As of October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, showing a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend. The futures delivery warehouse inventory decreased slightly during the period from September 4 to October 30, 2025 [5][10] Demand - Side Data - The production of finished paper such as double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed little change from September 4 to October 30, 2025. White cardboard showed a significant increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper has issued frequent price increase letters, but whether the price increase can be implemented remains to be observed, and overall demand is still weak [5][10] Valuation Data - On November 5, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle pulp was 214 with a quantile level of 0.902, and the basis of Silver Star pulp was 614 with a quantile level of 0.868. The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.513, and that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.557 [5]

| | | 客 服 热 线 | 国际油价震荡下跌。当前地缘局势预计宏观驱动逐步减弱,油价暂时重回 | | | 基本面驱动逻辑。宏观方面,中美领导人会晤,两国关税贸易政策取得部分成 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 果,但是整体或不及市场预期，因此市场情绪降温,暂时无明显驱动。原油自 | | | | | | | 身供需来仍处于宽松格局,供给端方面,在11月0PEC+会议上,OPEC+计划在12 | | | | | | | 月小幅增产13.7万桶/日,这是连续第三个月实施该增幅,该决策旨在恢复市场 | 県油 份额,但可能加剧市场供应过剩担忧。此外在12月之后,OPEC+还决定在2026 | | | | | | 年1月、2月和3月暂停增产。需求端方面,9月开始原油消费量逐渐下滑,其中 | | | | | | | 美国原油消费旺季结束的标志是9月初的劳工节,全球原油淡季消费量较旺季。 | | | | | | | 下滑100万～300万桶/日。在供给宽松、需求持续走弱及地缘风险消退的影响 | | | | | | | 下,长期油价仍将维持偏弱表现,短期或继续震荡表 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of industrial silicon is stable while demand is decreasing. During the dry season, the cost will rise slightly, and silicon prices may fluctuate. The supply side shows a slowdown in the resumption of production in the northwest region and successive production cuts in the southwest region. On the demand side, polysilicon will cut production during the dry season in November. In terms of inventory, the reduction of warehouse receipts drives the overall inventory decline [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: SI2511 closed at 8520 with a -1.73% change, SI2512 at 8920 (-2.25%), SI2601 at 8885 (-2.31%), SI2602 at 8865 (-2.53%), and SI2603 at 8875 (-2.37%) [2]. - **Open Interest**: SI2511 had an open interest of 2977, SI2512 had 70872, SI2601 had 242153, SI2602 had 37735, and SI2603 had 15858 [2]. Spot Market - **Regional Prices**: In the East China region, 553 (non - oxygenated) was priced at 9300, 553 (hydrogenated) at 9450, 421 at 9700, 441 at 9650, and 3303 at 10500. In Huangpu Port, 553 (oxygenated) was 9500 and 421 was 9950. In Tianjin Port, 553 (oxygenated) was 9350 and 421 was 9800. In Kunming, 553 (hydrogenated) was 9600, and in Sichuan, 421 was 9750. All prices had no change [2]. - **Related Product Prices**: DMC price was 11150, 107 glue was 11500, polysilicon (compact material, per kilogram) was 51, and the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21400 [2]. Price Spreads - **Futures Spreads**: The spread between si2511 - si2512 was -400 with a change of 40, and si2512 - si2601 was 35 with a change of 10 [2]. - **Spot Spreads**: The spread between 421 spot and 553 oxygenated spot was 250. The basis (East China 553 spot - main contract) was 565 with a change of 255 [2]. Warehouse and Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Information**: Various warehouses such as Zhongchu Wusong, Zhongchu Dachang, etc., had different capacities, and most had an ascension and rebate standard of 0. The total capacity was 27.55 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts decreased from 36997 to 36666, a decrease of 331 [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Options Data Daily Report [4] - Date: November 5, 2025 [5] - Data Sources: Wind, Guomao Futures Research Institute [7] Group 2: Underlying Asset Information Price and Daily Fluctuation - Furnace Aluminum: Price at 21,465, down 0.07%, with a daily fluctuation of 17.97% [5] - Shanghai Copper: Price at 85,740, down 1.54%, with a daily fluctuation of 36.69% [5] - Shanghai Zinc: Price at 22,670, up 0.82%, with a daily fluctuation of 17.35% [5] - Shanghai Gold: Price at 915.58, down 0.50%, with a daily fluctuation of 24.17% [5] - Rubber: Price at 14,875, down 1.42%, with a daily fluctuation of 33.50% [5] - Sugar: Price at 5,481, up 0.04%, with a daily fluctuation of 9.94% [5] - Corn: Price at 2,135, down 0.05%, with a daily fluctuation of 9.75% [5] - Rapeseed Meal: Price at 2,497, up 1.55%, with a daily fluctuation of 19.98% [5] - Soybean Meal: Price at 3,015, down 0.69%, with a daily fluctuation of 18.59% [5] - Palm Oil: Price at 8,616, down 0.85%, with a daily fluctuation of 26.06% [5] - Zhengzhou Cotton: Price at 13,535, down 0.40%, with a daily fluctuation of 12.45% [5] - Polypropylene: Price at 6,560, down 0.65%, with a daily fluctuation of 11.00% [5] - LPG: Price at 4,243, down 1.44%, with a daily fluctuation of 27.20% [5] - PTA: Price at 4,604, down 0.04%, with a daily fluctuation of 18.21% [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Price at 3,901, down 2.48%, with a daily fluctuation of 29.18% [5] - Styrene: Price at 6,354, down 1.99%, with a daily fluctuation of 34.17% [5] - Urea: Price at 1,630, up 0.80%, with a daily fluctuation of 22.79% [5] - Apple: Price at 8,861, down 2.63%, with a daily fluctuation of 54.89% [5] - Manganese Silicon: Price at 5,754, down 0.72%, with a daily fluctuation of 13.37% [5] - Soda Ash: Price at 1,189, down 1.74%, with a daily fluctuation of 21.59% [5] - Short Fiber: Price at 6,190, down 0.26%, with a daily fluctuation of 15.07% [5] - Ferrosilicon: Price at 5,510, down 0.29%, with a daily fluctuation of 22.25% [5] - Lithium Carbonate: Price at 78,560, down 4.34%, with a daily fluctuation of 109.72% [5] - Synthetic Rubber: Price at 10,205, down 2.30%, with a daily fluctuation of 31.45% [5] - p-Xylene: Price at 6,660, down 0.03%, with a daily fluctuation of 19.38% [5] - Glass: Price at 1,105, up 0.18%, with a daily fluctuation of 39.71% [5] - Propylene: Price at 6,026, down 1.16%, with a daily fluctuation of 21.10% [5] - Polysilicon: Price at 53,715, down 3.91%, with a daily fluctuation of 75.10% [6] Historical Volatility - The report provides historical volatility data (HV20, HV40, HV60, HV120) for various underlying assets such as furnace aluminum, Shanghai copper, etc [5] Group 3: Implied Volatility 主力平值IV - Implied volatility data for various underlying assets including polysilicon (e.g., 31%, 50%), propylene (e.g., 13%, 16%), etc [10] 主力平值IV分位值 - The report presents the percentile values of the implied volatility of the underlying assets such as 82%, 63%, etc [13] Group 4: Historical Trends - The report shows historical trends of the closing price, implied volatility, and HV60 for some underlying assets like industrial silicon, iron ore, soybean oil, etc [12]

| 工G国留留信 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 色金属数据目报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015300 从业资格号:F3043701 | 国贸期货研究员 | 方言詞 | 2025/11/05 | 投资咨询号:Z0015788 从业资格号:F3040017 | 有色金属研究中心 谢灵 | | | | | | | | | | | 价格指标 | 变化（%） | 变化 (%) | 15:00期货价格 | 现货价格 | 图表 | 10872. 5 | -0. 3 | -0. 27 | 10855. 5 | 铜 | LME有色金属期货库存(吨) | | | | | 0.8 | 锌 | 3190 | 0. 63 | 3090 | 1500000 | LME | 品 | -0. 25 | 1995 | 2893 ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily data report on synthetic rubber, focusing on the domestic butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber markets [2][3] Key Points Market Conditions - **Domestic Butadiene Market**: On November 4, the domestic butadiene market continued its downward trend. The supply was abundant, and the downstream rigid demand couldn't provide effective support. The price in Shandong Luzhong area was around 7000 - 7100 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 6600 yuan/ton [3] - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Market**: The capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis butadiene rubber was 64.50%, a decrease of 2.79 percentage points from the previous working day. The theoretical production profit of cis - butadiene rubber increased significantly to 893 yuan/ton [3] Price Changes - **Butadiene**: The price of Sinopec East China butadiene decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 6900 yuan/ton [3] - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber**: The ex - factory price of Sinopec Chemical Sales cis - butadiene rubber remained stable at 10500 yuan/ton [3] Market Expectations - Most industry players expect the cost of cis - butadiene rubber to continue to decline due to the expected increase in butadiene supply and low - price transactions of South Korean butadiene resources. The market generally expects the supply price of Sinopec and PetroChina's cis - butadiene rubber to be further reduced [3] Strategy - **Single - side**: The BR contract is expected to consolidate [3] - **Arbitrage**: After the spread widens again, consider going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Report's Core View - The report indicates that although urea exports are progressing, the domestic supply - demand situation remains loose, and the market is expected to continue its downward trend in the near term. It also suggests a neutral view on the overall market, with macro and cost factors being positive, while weak domestic demand is negative [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost - The prices of coking coal, anthracite small pieces remained unchanged at 465.00 and 920.00 respectively, while the price of natural gas decreased by 100.00 to 4200.00 [1]. Price - The prices in most regions, such as Henan, Hebei, and Anhui, remained stable. Shandong's price increased by 10.00 to 1560.00. International prices including China FOB, Middle East FOB, etc., also remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory all remained unchanged at 155.43, 11.00, and 14500.00 respectively [1]. Supply - Daily production, overall开工率, coal - based and gas - based开工率, and待发订单 all remained unchanged, with开工率 at 80.69, coal - based at 82.61, and gas - based at 72.79 [1]. Demand - The开工率 of compound fertilizers, melamine, and formaldehyde remained unchanged at 31.04, 49.98, and 40.74 respectively [1]. Profit - The profits of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and natural gas remained unchanged at - 317.00, 104.00, and - 292.00 respectively [1]. Related Products - The prices of liquid ammonia and compound fertilizers remained unchanged at 2000.00 and 2450.00 respectively. The prices of melamine and methanol decreased by 30.00 and 20.00 to 5020.00 and 2030.00 respectively [1]. Futures - The结算价 increased by 8.00 to 1625.00, the基差 increased by 3.00 to - 60.00, the涨跌幅 was 0.49, the成交量 decreased by 19168.00 to 140396.00, the持仓量 increased by 2518.00 to 272271.00, and the仓車量 increased by 2445.00 to 3900.00 [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: None - **Bearish**: Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Soybean meal, Paper pulp - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Soda ash, Coking coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, Natural rubber, Synthetic rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, Styrene, Urea, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic soda, PG, Container shipping European line Core Views - Short - term, market sentiment may shift from optimism to caution, and the stock index may enter an oscillating phase to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement, with strong support below due to policy and liquidity [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upside [1]. - Precious metals are under short - term pressure due to tight dollar liquidity [1]. - Copper price is expected to have limited downside, while aluminum price oscillates, and alumina has a weak fundamental situation [1]. - Zinc price is expected to stay high, but chasing high should be cautious; nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by macro factors and have different trends [1]. - Tin has long - term buying opportunities at low prices; polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and other commodities have their own oscillating or directional trends based on supply - demand and macro factors [1]. - Some agricultural products like palm oil, rapeseed oil, etc. face bearish factors, while others like sugar and cotton have complex supply - demand situations [1]. - Energy - chemical products' prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and cost, showing various trends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Short - term, with the release of positive factors, the stock index may oscillate to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement, and there is strong support below due to policy and liquidity [1]. Treasury Bond - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upside [1]. Gold - Precious metals are under short - term pressure due to tight dollar liquidity [1]. Copper - Macro - positive sentiment is digested, and copper price may decline, but the downside is limited [1]. Aluminum - Recent industrial drivers are limited, and with the digestion of macro - positives, aluminum price oscillates [1]. Alumina - Domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, with both production and inventory increasing, and the fundamental situation is weak, putting pressure on the spot price [1]. Zinc - Market risk aversion rises, LME zinc inventory is decreasing, and zinc price is strong, but domestic over - supply requires caution when chasing high [1]. Nickel - Short - term, nickel price may be dominated by macro factors and oscillate weakly, with high inventory pressure; long - term, primary nickel over - supply persists [1]. Stainless Steel - Macro sentiment weakens, and stainless - steel futures are under pressure; short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedges at high prices should be noted [1]. Tin - Long - term, there are opportunities to go long at low prices due to the unrepaired raw - material end and good new - quality demand expectations [1]. Polysilicon - Northwest production capacity is recovering, production in November is decreasing, and there are expectations of capacity reduction and increased terminal installation [1]. Lithium Carbonate - There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season, and attention should be paid to upward pressure after the realization of macro sentiment [1]. Iron Ore - Near - month production is restricted, and far - month has upward potential [1]. Manganese Silicon - Direct demand is good, but high supply and inventory pressure limit price rebound [1]. Soda Ash - It follows glass, but supply - demand is average, and there is strong upward resistance [1]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal is testing support, and coke has a complex situation; short - term, single - side operations should be observed, and long - term, low - buying is recommended [1]. Palm Oil - Short - term, it faces seasonal production increase and weak exports; from November, there may be a phased rebound if exports improve [1]. Rapeseed Oil - Sino - Canadian relations and Canadian harvest put pressure on the price [1]. Cotton - Uncertainty in cotton demand exists due to the contradiction between Xinjiang's capacity expansion and reduced spinning profit; the downside is limited, but new - crop base and price may be under pressure [1]. Sugar - Short - term, there is seasonal upward momentum, but new - sugar listing may limit the rebound space [1]. Corn - Futures and spot face selling pressure, and the price may oscillate and bottom out [1]. Soybean Meal - Domestic soybean purchase and processing profit is poor, and the price may rebound to repair the profit, but supply expectations limit the rebound height [1]. Paper Pulp - The 11 - contract has pressure, and an 11 - 1 reverse spread is recommended [1]. Log - The fundamental situation has declined, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Live Pig - Short - term, futures follow the spot and turn weak [1]. Crude Oil and Fuel Oil - OPEC+ continues to increase production slightly, geopolitical hype cools down, and market sentiment eases [1]. Asphalt - Short - term supply - demand is not prominent, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" demand may be false; supply is sufficient, and profit is high [1]. Natural Rubber - Supported by raw - material cost, mid - stream inventory decreases, and the market atmosphere is positive [1]. Synthetic Rubber - Cost support weakens, supply is loose, and the price is adjusted downwards [1]. PTA and Short - fiber - The "anti - involution" policy drives the price up, and short - fiber follows the cost [1]. Ethylene Glycol - It follows the decline of crude oil, but cost support strengthens, and polyester demand is stable [1]. Styrene - Asian benzene price is weak, and styrene profit declines, with more device overhauls [1]. Urea - Export is weak, and there is cost support [1]. PE and PP - Supply pressure is high, and downstream improvement is less than expected [1]. PVC - Supply pressure is large, and cost support strengthens [1]. Caustic Soda - Production plans increase, over - concentration of overhauls decreases, and there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. PG - International oil and gas supply is loose, and domestic spot is stable [1]. Container Shipping European Line - Macro - positive sentiment is digested, and November's shipping capacity supply is relatively loose [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Tuesday (November 4), most domestic commodities declined, with industrial products mostly falling and agricultural products mostly weakening [1]. - The macro - positive expectations for black commodities have ended, and steel prices may face a correction risk as they return to the off - season fundamentals [1]. - Base metals are under pressure from the rebound of the US dollar index, and copper may enter a short - term adjustment. The price of lithium carbonate is volatile and affected by enterprise news [1]. - For energy and chemical products, although international oil prices only slightly rose, there may be short - term rebound momentum due to OPEC+'s decision to pause production increase in the first quarter of next year [1]. - In the case of oilseeds and oils, the price trends vary among different varieties, with some affected by macro news, supply - demand, and cost factors [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Black Commodities - Macro利好预期结束，商品整体情绪降温，钢材需求持续性不明且幅度有限，螺纹热卷期货四连阴回吐上周涨幅 [1]. - 上周五大钢材品种库存环比降2.64%至1513.76万吨，但较去年同期增22.58%，产量环比增1.15%，表观需求环比增2.65%至916.4万吨创近半年高位 [1]. - 近期钢材供需结构转好，但宏观扰动结束，预计回归淡季基本面，价格有回调风险 [1]. Base Metals - 美联储官员表态分歧，缺乏关键数据指引，美元指数反弹压制金属市场 [1]. - 海外矿山中断，国内社库反弹，伦铜短期在1000美金上方压力大，随降息预期回落短期将调整 [1]. - 碳酸锂前期因需求上涨，近期复产预期提升，价格受消息影响波动大，需关注企业动态 [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - 欧美对俄石油制裁和地缘事件的风险溢价未能推动油价上行，国际油价仅微幅收涨，内盘原油系多数走弱 [1]. - 短期国际原油市场交易逻辑未变，利好是美国制裁政策和地缘局势不确定，利空是OPEC+增产立场及全球经济和需求欠佳 [1]. - OPEC+12月继续增产，但明年一季度暂停增产超市场预期，国际油价短期或有反弹动能 [1]. Oilseeds and Oils - 菜粕近月合约延续强势但上涨动能有限，部分远月合约回落；豆粕期货全线回落，观望美豆需求 [1]. - 棕榈油期货受马棕产量及库存增长预期打压维持弱势；豆油供强需弱但成本有支撑，维持震荡调整 [1]. - 菜油小幅收涨，短期国内菜油进入入库期，跟随油脂市场波动 [1]. Index Performance - The overall Guomao Commodity Index decreased by 0.91% from November 3rd to November 4th [1]. - The daily commodity index decreased by 1.03% [1]. - The Guomao Black Commodity Index decreased by 1.13% [1]. - The other commodity index increased by 0.27% [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The pattern of both supply and demand reduction in the polysilicon production schedule for November, with a situation of "weak reality and strong expectation", remains unchanged. The previously rumored capacity storage method has been confirmed for the first time, boosting market sentiment. The "involution" measures will take another step, and the progress of capacity clearance continues. In the short term, prices may show a strong trend [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price - PS2511 closed at 55,000 with a decline of 4.14%. PS2512 closed at 53,750 with a decline of 4.12%. PS2601 closed at 53,715 with a decline of 4.19%. PS2602 closed at 53,685 with a decline of 4.19% [1] - The price difference between PS2511 - PS2512 is -2,175 with an increase of 80. The price difference between PS2512 - PS2601 is 35 with an increase of 40. The price difference between PS2601 - PS2602 is 30 with no change [1] Spot Price - The average price of N - type compact material is 51 with no change. The average price of N - type mixed material is 50.5 [1][2] Basis - The basis between N - type compact material and PS2601 is -2,715 with an increase of 2,350. The basis between N - type mixed material and PS2601 is -3,215 with an increase of 2,350 [2] Inventory - The polysilicon inventory (weekly, in ten thousand tons) is 26.1 with an increase of 0.3. The silicon wafer inventory (weekly, in GW) is 18.93 with an increase of 0.46. The registered warehouse receipts (daily, in tons) is 9,590 with an increase of 490 [2] Newly - installed Capacity - In September 2025, the newly - installed capacity was 9.66 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 53.76% and a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative installed capacity was 240.27 GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35% [2]