Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - The overall trading of PVC powder in the domestic market was dull today. The prices of most markets rose slightly, with an increase of 10 - 15 yuan/ton. The PVC powder futures fluctuated slightly higher. Given the high uncertainty of macro - policies, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coal and Related Products - The price of Q5500 coal on September 1, 2025, was 694, and on September 2, 2025, it was 693. The price of Shaanxi medium - sized blue charcoal remained at 660. The price of Inner Mongolia calcium carbide and Shandong calcium carbide remained unchanged at 2400 and 2730 respectively [3] Futures and Spot - The main continuous futures price decreased by 6, from 4894 to 4888. The price of East China SG - 5 remained at 4680, while the price of South China SG - 5 increased by 10 to 4770. The price of R - SG - 5 remained at 4730, and the price of Northwest SG - 5 decreased by 100 to 4420. The price of East China S - 1000 remained at 4950 [3] Basis - The basis in East China increased by 6 to - 208, the basis in South China increased by 16 to - 118, and the basis in another area (referred to as "卡求") increased by 6 to - 158 [3] Profit - The profit of Shandong calcium carbide method remained at - 889, and the profit of Inner Mongolia calcium carbide method decreased by 100 to - 668 [3] Outer Market - CFR China increased by 30 to 731, CFR Southeast Asia remained at 679, and FAS Houston decreased by 10 to 607 [3] Start - up Rate - The total start - up rate decreased by 1.59% to 76.02%. The start - up rate of the calcium carbide method increased by 0.44% to 77.25%, and the start - up rate of the ethylene method decreased by 6.64% to 72.95% [3] Inventory - The social inventory increased by 1.39 to 52.19. The inventory in East China increased by 1.34 to 46.36, and the inventory in another area (referred to as "夜南") increased by 0.05 to 5.83 [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded, and the weakness of benzene prices has suppressed the further increase of PX production to a certain extent. The spread between PX and MX has rebounded, the downstream load of polyester has remained at around 88%, domestic PTA plants have gradually returned, and domestic PTA production has increased. With the recent improvement in sales and inventory reduction, especially the significant reduction of filament inventory, profits have been significantly repaired. However, the maintenance expectations of some downstream devices are relatively strong [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): South Korea's naphtha cracking units plan to cut production, and olefin varieties have risen significantly. The price of ethylene glycol has rebounded, and the maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol units, especially Saudi Arabian units, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the market outlook. This has also continuously boosted the price of ethylene glycol. The later arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. Polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load has increased [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: The price rose from 483.5 yuan/barrel on September 1st to 490.4 yuan/barrel on September 2nd, an increase of 6.90 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The price decreased from 1258.4 yuan/ton to 1192.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66.14 yuan/ton; the ratio decreased from 1.3581 to 1.3345, a decrease of 0.0236 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: The price decreased from 848 to 846, a decrease of 2; the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 251 to 250, a decrease of 1 [2]. - **PTA**: The main contract futures price decreased from 4772 yuan/ton to 4756 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.0 yuan/ton; the spot price increased from 4720 yuan/ton to 4725 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.0 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee decreased from 180.0 yuan/ton to 179.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/ton; the on - disk processing fee decreased from 222.0 yuan/ton to 215.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.4 yuan/ton; the main contract basis decreased from (42) to (49), a decrease of 7.0 [2]. - **MEG**: The main contract futures price decreased from 4427 yuan/ton to 4339 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88.0 yuan/ton; the MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (100.96) yuan/ton to (110.15) yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.2 yuan/ton; the domestic MEG price decreased from 4513 yuan/ton to 4468 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45.0 yuan/ton; the main contract basis increased from 84 to 88, an increase of 4.0 [2]. - **Polyester Products**: - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price remained unchanged at 6860 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F price remained unchanged at 7130 yuan/ton, DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged at 8035 yuan/ton. POY cash flow increased from 63 to 73, an increase of 10.0; FDY cash flow increased from (167) to (157), an increase of 10.0; DTY cash flow increased from 38 to 48, an increase of 10.0. The filament sales rate decreased from 40% to 38%, a decrease of 2% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 6605 yuan/ton to 6590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the cash flow decreased from 158 to 153, a decrease of 5.0; the sales rate increased from 39% to 42%, an increase of 3% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The price of semi - bright chips remained unchanged at 5815 yuan/ton; the cash flow increased from (82) to (72), an increase of 10.0; the sales rate decreased from 65% to 61%, a decrease of 4% [2]. b) Industry Operation - **Operating Rates**: The PX operating rate remained unchanged at 82.59%, the PTA operating rate increased from 72.55% to 74.26%, an increase of 1.71%, the MEG operating rate remained unchanged at 62.03%, and the polyester load remained unchanged at 87.99% [2]. c) Device Maintenance It is reported that a 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in South China has started maintenance today, and another 2.5 - million - ton plant is expected to start maintenance around August 23, with an expected maintenance time of more than one month [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PX and naphtha spread expands, and the weakness of benzene price restrains the further increase of PX output. The spread between PX and MX rebounds, the downstream load of polyester remains at about 88%, domestic PTA plants gradually resume operation, and domestic PTA output rebounds. With the recent improvement in sales and inventory reduction, especially the significant reduction of filament inventory, profits are significantly repaired. However, the maintenance expectations of some downstream plants are strong [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Spot Price Changes - PTA spot price rose from 4720 to 4725, an increase of 5 [2] - MEG domestic price dropped from 4513 to 4468, a decrease of 45 [2] Futures Closing Price Changes - PTA closing price dropped from 4772 to 4756, a decrease of 16 [2] - MEG closing price dropped from 4427 to 4339, a decrease of 88 [2] Short Fiber Data - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price dropped from 6605 to 6590, a decrease of 15 [2] - Short fiber basis dropped from 136 to 46, a decrease of 90 [2] - 9 - 10 spread decreased from 78 to 94, a decrease of 16 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical spread decreased from 905 to 890, a decrease of 15 [2] Bottle Chip Data - Polyester bottle chip prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets dropped, with the average price down 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. Various types of bottle chips such as East China water bottle chips, hot - filled polyester bottle chips, and carbonated - grade polyester bottle chips all dropped by 10 [2] - Outer - market water bottle chip price dropped from 775 to 770, a decrease of 5 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee remained at 389, with a change of 0.80 [2] Yarn Data - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained at 10330, with no change [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3725 to 3740, an increase of 15 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained at 16300, with no change [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit remained at 1185, with a change of 0.49 [2] Other Data - Cotton 328 price rose from 15175 to 15200, an increase of 25 [2] - Virgin three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained at 7130, with no change [2] - Hollow short fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 383 to 393, an increase of 10.80 [2] - Virgin low - melting - point short fiber price remained at 7500, with no change [2] Load and Production and Sales Data - Direct - spun short fiber load (weekly) increased from 90.60% to 91.10%, an increase of 0.01 [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 40.00% to 45.00%, an increase of 5.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 62.00% to 62.80%, an increase of 0.01 [3] - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 49.50% to 49.00%, a decrease of 0.01 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the spread between the November and January contracts is expected to narrow [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Pulp Price Data - On September 2, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2509 were 5344, 5042, and 4990 respectively, with daily changes of 0.15%, 0.04%, and 0.08% and weekly changes of -0.55%, -0.60% respectively [1] - Spot prices of coniferous pulp (Silver Star, Russian Needle) and broadleaf pulp (Goldfish) were 5720, 5200, and 4200 respectively, with daily changes of 0.35%, 1.96%, and 0.48% and weekly changes of -1.38%, 0.39%, and 1.20% respectively [1] - Outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 720, 530, and 590 dollars respectively, with monthly changes of -2.70%, 3.92%, and 0.00% respectively [1] - Import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5884, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with monthly changes of -2.68%, 3.87%, and 0.00% respectively [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.72% compared to June [1] - The pulp shipment volume to China in July 2025 was 140 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.30% compared to June [1] - On August 28, 2025, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 20.6 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 20.9 tons [1] - On August 28, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 208.4 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3% [1] - The inventory of the futures delivery warehouse on August 28, 2025, was 24.9 tons [1] - The production volumes of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard on August 28, 2025, were 20.50, 7.90, 28.18, and 32.10 tons respectively [1] Pulp Valuation Data - On September 2, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle and Silver Star were 158 and 678 respectively, with quantile levels of 0.881 and 0.898 [1] - On September 2, 2025, the import profits of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) and broadleaf pulp (Goldfish) were - 164 and - 144 respectively, with quantile levels of 0.368 and 0.503 [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - Supply: Brazilian Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025. Chilean Arauco notified the August quotes, with the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star at 720 dollars/ton, the supply of broadleaf pulp Star decreased by 50%, and the price of natural pulp Venus at 590 dollars/ton [1] - Demand: The current demand for paper products is basically stable. Some double - offset paper and white cardboard manufacturers have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be observed [1] - Inventory: As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 208.4 tons, showing a destocking trend [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals have limited support for futures prices, and it is expected to be mainly weak in a volatile manner [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 77,500 yuan, down 850 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 75,200 yuan, down 850 yuan [1] Futures Contracts - Carbonate lithium 2509 closed at 73,280 yuan, down 3.98%; carbonate lithium 2510 down 4.37%; carbonate lithium 2511 down 4.3%; carbonate lithium 2512 down 3.97%; carbonate lithium 2601 down 3.79% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 887 yuan, down 11 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1205 yuan, down 25 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1920 yuan, down 30 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6365 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7390 yuan, down 85 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) average price is 34,600 yuan, down 205 yuan; ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,900 yuan; ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 118,900 yuan; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,925 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2300 yuan; the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 4880 yuan, up 2090 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 40 yuan, up 60 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 20 yuan, down 100 yuan [2] Inventory - Total inventory (weekly, tons) is 141,136 tons, down 407 tons; smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,336 tons, down 3510 tons; downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 52,800 tons, up 1293 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 45,000 tons, up 1810 tons; registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 32,007 tons, up 810 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 76,333 yuan; the profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 50 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 80,138 yuan; the profit of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is - 5811 yuan [3] Industry Events - A meeting on the lithium iron phosphate material branch council was held to discuss solutions to over - capacity and low - carbon transformation paths [3] - With the successful renewal of the xy safety license, the production of Jiangxi mica mines has been further reduced; downstream battery manufacturers' production schedules in September have increased, but downstream returns have weakened the transmission of increased demand [3]

Group 1: Core View - The supply is diverse during the new and old crop season, and the competition between processed sugar and domestic sugar intensifies. It is expected to maintain a range-bound trend [4]. - If Brazil's production exceeds expectations or India relaxes exports, raw sugar may test the previous low again [4]. Group 2: Price Data Domestic Price Data - In the domestic market, the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Kunming, Yunnan is 5850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Dali, Yunnan is 5720 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong is 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - The futures price of SR09 is 5611 yuan, down 12 yuan; SR01 is 5599 yuan, down 10 yuan; SR09 - 01 is 12, down 2 [4]. International Price Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.1564, up 0.0075; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - The price of the ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.34, unchanged; the price of the London white sugar main contract is 573, up 3; the price of the Brent crude oil main contract is 68.16, unchanged [4].

Report Summary 1. Market Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.31 with a 0.20 bp increase, DR007 at 1.44 with a 0.78 bp decrease, GC001 at 1.00 with a 2.50 bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.46 with a 2.00 bp increase. SHBOR 3M remained unchanged at 1.55, and LPR 5 - year stayed at 3.50 [3]. - **Bond Yields**: 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.34, 1.58, and 1.77 respectively, with the 1 - year and 5 - year bonds down 0.50 bp and the 10 - year up 0.05 bp. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.23, up 1.00 bp [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4490, down 0.74%; the SSE 50 at 2993, up 0.39%; the CSI 500 at 6962, down 2.09%; and the CSI 1000 at 7314, down 2.50%. The trading volume of the two A - share markets reached 28750 billion, 1250 billion more than the previous day [4]. 2. Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 2557 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 4058 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1501 billion yuan. This week, 22731 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [3]. 3. Market Analysis - **Market Sentiment**: Yesterday, the macro news was calm, but small - and medium - cap stocks fell significantly due to profit - taking and increased risk - aversion. Large - cap stocks were relatively stable. The market liquidity is abundant, with A - share daily trading volume above 2.5 trillion [4]. - **Economic Indicators**: China's manufacturing PMI in August rose slightly to 49.4%, indicating economic resilience. Overseas, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased [4]. 4. Investment Strategy - Short - term long positions can be shifted towards IF or IH to reduce portfolio volatility and risk [4].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [5] - Research Institution: ITG Guomao Futures [3] - Research Center: Macroeconomic and Financial Research Center [5] - Analyst: Bai Suna [5] Group 2: Price Tracking Spot and Futures Prices - On September 2, 2025, London Gold Spot was at $3,486.02/ounce, London Silver Spot at $40.70/ounce, COMEX Gold at $3,556.10/ounce, and COMEX Silver at $41.70/ounce. The prices of AU2510, AG2510, AU (T+D), and AG (T+D) were 804.32 yuan/gram, 9,824 yuan/kilogram, 799.94 yuan/gram, and 9,797 yuan/kilogram respectively [5]. - Compared to September 1, 2025, the price increases were 0.2% for London Gold Spot, 0.5% for London Silver Spot, 0.3% for COMEX Gold, 0.8% for COMEX Silver, 0.5% for AU2510, 0.5% for AG2510, 0.4% for AU (T+D), and 0.5% for AG (T+D) [5]. Price Spreads and Ratios - On September 2, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was -4.38 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was -27 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external (TD - London) price spread was 3.19 yuan/gram, and the silver internal - external (TD - London) price spread was -633 yuan/kilogram. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 81.87, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 85.29. The spreads between AU2512 - 2510 and AG2512 - 2510 were 1.86 yuan/gram and 21 yuan/kilogram respectively [5]. - Compared to September 1, 2025, the price spread changes were 12.0% for gold TD - SHFE active price spread, -3.6% for silver TD - SHFE active price spread, 86.6% for gold internal - external (TD - London) price spread, 0.1% for silver internal - external (TD - London) price spread, 0.0% for SHFE gold - silver ratio, -0.5% for COMEX gold - silver ratio, 13.4% for AU2512 - 2510 spread, and -8.7% for AG2512 - 2510 spread [5]. Group 3: Position Data Non - commercial Positions in COMEX - As of August 26, 2025 (weekly data), COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 275,767 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 61,456 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 214,311 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 68,227 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 21,761 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 46,466 contracts [5]. ETF Positions - On August 29, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR held 977.68 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV held 15,309.99769 tons. Compared to August 28, 2025, the changes were 1.01% for gold ETF - SPDR and -0.15% for silver ETF - SLV [5]. Group 4: Inventory Data SHFE and COMEX Inventories - On September 2, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 40,191 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory was 1,215,228 kilograms. On August 29, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 38,925,853 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 518,232,360 troy ounces. Compared to the previous period, the increases were 1.12% for SHFE gold inventory, 0.66% for SHFE silver inventory, 0.42% for COMEX gold inventory, and 0.20% for COMEX silver inventory [5]. Group 5: Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - On September 2, 2025, the USD/CNY central parity rate was 7.11. On August 29, 2025, the US Dollar Index was 97.85, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.59%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23%, the VIX was 15.36, the S&P 500 was 6,460.26, and NYMEX crude oil was $64.01/barrel [5]. - Compared to the previous period, the changes were 0.02% for the USD/CNY central parity rate, -0.02% for the US Dollar Index, -0.83% for the 2 - year US Treasury yield, 0.24% for the 10 - year US Treasury yield, 6.44% for the VIX, -0.64% for the S&P 500, and -0.48% for NYMEX crude oil [5]. Group 6: Key News - On August 29, 2025, the US Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by former President Trump were illegal, and these additional tariffs could be maintained until October 14 to allow the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court. Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang visited the US and held talks with relevant US government officials and business representatives [5]. - The preliminary Eurozone CPI annual rate in August 2025 was 0.2% (previous value 0.00%), the preliminary Eurozone PPI annual rate was 2.1% (expected 2%, previous value 2.00%), and the preliminary Eurozone core PPI annual rate was 2.3% (expected 2.3%, previous value 2.4%) [5]. - Due to market expectations of Germany's investment plan and potential increase in defense spending in Eurozone countries, Eurozone ultra - long - term government bonds faced selling pressure. The yield of Germany's 30 - year government bonds reached a 14 - year high, and the yields of 30 - year government bonds in the UK and France reached their highest levels in many years [5]. - Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino Ryozo stated that it is appropriate to continue raising interest rates based on the improvement of the economy and prices [5]. Group 7: Market Analysis Short - term Logic - On September 2, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 1.21% to 804.32 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 2.33% to 9,824 yuan/kilogram [5]. - The short - term logic is that the overall US PCE in July 2025 met expectations, indicating that the Fed's inflation control target is controllable. The decline in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August further strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. The Fed's independent stance boosted the rebound of precious metal prices. Additionally, due to fiscal concerns and rising debt levels, Eurozone ultra - long - term government bonds faced selling pressure, and local geopolitical tensions increased market risk aversion, supporting precious metal prices. However, the rise in the US Dollar Index due to government bond risks may slow down the rise of precious metal prices. It is expected that the gold price will remain high in the short term, and long positions are recommended to be held. Silver is approaching the 10,000 - yuan mark, and the potential suppression of its commodity attributes by the fermentation of European debt risks should be watched out for [5]. Medium - and Long - term Logic - In the medium - and long - term, with the expectation of Fed rate cuts, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying major - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, central banks around the world will continue to buy gold, and the medium - and long - term center of the gold price is likely to continue to rise [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Bullish in the short - term, suggest tilting towards IF or IH to reduce risk [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Limited upside due to short - term central bank interest rate risk warning, but asset shortage and weak economy are favorable [1] - **Gold**: Bullish due to safe - haven demand and interest rate cut expectations [1] - **Silver**: Bullish, following gold with stronger elasticity [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to be strong due to Fed interest rate cut expectations and potential supply tightness [1] - **Aluminum**: Trading in a range, affected by domestic consumption off - season and Fed interest rate cut expectations [1] - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals, but look for long - position opportunities in far - month contracts [1] - **Zinc**: Limited downside, be cautious about short - selling [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term rebound with macro factors, long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading in a range, look for selling - hedging opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Stronger in the short - term with improved macro sentiment [1] - **Silicon for Mining**: Bearish due to supply resumption and hedging pressure [1] - **Polysilicon**: Bearish with capacity reduction expectations and low terminal installation willingness [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Trading in a range, neutral valuation, unclear industrial drivers, positive macro drivers [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Trading in a range, neutral valuation, unclear industrial drivers, positive macro drivers [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish, long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals [1] - **Coke**: Bearish, long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals [1] - **Glass**: Bearish, supply surplus pressure persists [1] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish, supply surplus pressure is large, price under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Hold off on new positions, expect short - term consolidation [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Hold off on new positions, similar logic to palm oil [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Hold off on new positions, affected by ICE rapeseed price and trade policies [1] - **Cotton**: Bullish in the short - term, pay attention to time window and quota release [1] - **Sugar**: Bullish but with limited upside, pay attention to the 5600 - 6000 range [1] - **Corn**: Expected to trade at a low level in the short - term, pay attention to new grain listing [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Limited downside, expected to trade in a range [1] - **Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 calendar spread [1] - **Logs**: Expected to trade in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [1] - **Hogs**: Bearish due to increasing supply and decreasing cost [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trading in a range, affected by Indian procurement, OPEC+ production, and tariff issues [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Trading in a range, similar factors as crude oil [1] - **Asphalt**: Short - term following crude oil, long - term demand may be overestimated [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Affected by rainfall, inventory, and market sentiment [1] - **BR Rubber**: Pay attention to inventory and autumn maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Bearish due to production recovery and downstream maintenance expectations [1] - **Short - fiber**: Affected by industry reform rumors, supply and demand changes [1] - **Styrene**: Affected by industry reform rumors and market trading volume [1] - **PE**: Price oscillating weakly, affected by export, domestic demand, and cost [2] - **PVC**: Trading in a range, affected by maintenance, orders, and inventory [2] - **Olefins**: Driven by market rumors and supply - demand changes [2] - **FEI**: Rebound due to multiple factors, pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation [2] - **US Freight**: Supply exceeds demand, freight rate declining [2] 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various industries and commodities. In general, the macro - financial environment has a significant impact on the market. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations, asset shortage, and weak economic conditions are important factors affecting the prices of financial and commodity assets. For different industries, factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, inventory, and market sentiment all play crucial roles in determining price trends. Some commodities are expected to be strong due to positive factors like supply tightness or increased demand, while others face downward pressure because of oversupply, weak demand, or policy - related risks [1][2]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - financial Industry The overall macro - financial environment is complex. The stock index is supported by sufficient market liquidity, while treasury bonds are affected by both favorable long - term factors and short - term interest rate risk warnings. Precious metals are driven by safe - haven demand and interest rate cut expectations [1] Non - ferrous Metals Industry Supply and demand dynamics, along with macro - economic factors and geopolitical events (such as labor unrest in Indonesia), are the main drivers of non - ferrous metal prices. Some metals are expected to be strong due to supply concerns or positive macro sentiment, while others face challenges from oversupply or weak domestic demand [1] Black Metals Industry The black metals industry is facing supply - demand imbalances, with high inventory levels and weak demand in some segments. Anti - involution is a long - term issue, and the market is trying to balance supply and demand by adjusting prices [1] Agricultural Products Industry Prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as seasonality, international trade policies, and supply - demand relationships. Some products are expected to be strong in the long - term but may experience short - term corrections, while others are trading in a range or facing downward pressure [1] Energy and Chemicals Industry The energy and chemicals industry is influenced by global supply - demand dynamics, production capacity changes, and market rumors. Crude oil prices are affected by OPEC+ production decisions and international trade issues, while chemical products are affected by factors such as production recovery, inventory changes, and industry reform rumors [1][2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The EC market is rising. The main reasons are that the US Court of Appeals ruled that most of Trump's tariff measures exceeded the scope of authority, but the relevant tariff collection will still be carried out normally before October 14. Meanwhile, the conflict between the Houthis and Israel has reignited, which is beneficial to the far - month contracts [7]. - The downward adjustment of OCEAN's freight rates accelerated in September, which may put pressure on MSK to cut prices to attract cargo. It's necessary to focus on whether MSK will follow the price cut and whether the freight rates can stop falling in September. In the short term, the freight rates may fall below 1300. The price of the December contract is likely to show a weak and volatile trend. The strategy is to short the October contract on rallies and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [8]. 3. Directory - based Summaries 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The present values of SCFI, CCFI, SCFI - West US, SCFIS - West US, SCFI - East US, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1445, 1156, 1923, 1013, 2866, 1481, 1773, and 2145 respectively. The corresponding previous values are 1415, 1175, 1644, 1041, 2613, 1668, 1990, and 2225, with the respective growth rates of 2.10%, - 1.58%, 16.97%, - 2.69%, 9.68%, - 11.21%, - 10.90%, and - 3.60% [5]. - **Forward Freight Agreement Index**: The present values of EC2506, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604 are 1428.5, 1602.1, 1291.4, 1640.9, 1461.3, and 1241.8 respectively. The previous values are 1376.1, 1561.0, 1261.0, 1562.7, 1408.1, and 1204.4, with the growth rates of 3.81%, 2.63%, 2.41%, 5.00%, 3.78%, and 3.11% [5]. - **Positions**: The present positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 890, 274, 52271, 16495, 4846, and 7069 respectively. The previous positions are 867, 256, 53260, 17323, 4689, and 7136, with the changes of 23, 18, - 989, - 828, 157, and - 67 [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The present values of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 monthly spreads are - 349.5, 179.6, and 399.1 respectively. The previous values are - 301.7, 154.6, and 358.3, with the changes of - 47.8, 25.0, and 40.8 [5]. 3.2 Market News - Yemen's Houthi rebels vowed to avenge the death of several important members in Israeli air strikes, and the conflict between the Houthis and Israel may intensify [6]. - The US Trade Representative's Office extended the exclusion list measures for China in the Section 301 investigation from August 31, 2025, to November 2025 [6]. - The US government plans to expand national security tariffs in the next few months, covering industries such as steel, aluminum, semiconductors, heavy trucks, and commercial aircraft [6]. - Container ships can reach 10 million TEU, and alternative - fuel - powered ships will dominate future shipping capacity. The average age of the global fleet is 13.7 years (11 years weighted by TEU), and some segments, especially medium - sized ships, are aging rapidly [6].