Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On August 27, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.12% to 781.16 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.52% to 9,305 yuan/kg [4] - The event of Trump dismissing Fed Governor Cook has further fermented. Political pressure has strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, thus supporting precious metal prices. On the other hand, the official implementation of a 50% tariff on India by the US and Trump's tariff remarks have slightly increased market risk aversion. However, Trump's statement that the US has completed trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea, along with strong US core durable goods order data in July, highlighting US economic resilience and providing support for the US dollar index, have limited the upside space for gold prices. In the short term, precious metal prices are still supported. For gold, it is recommended to hold long positions or go long on pullbacks. For silver, it is expected to follow gold in the short term, but with signs of cooling in the stock market and commodities, short - term fluctuations need attention, and the upside height and duration in the medium term should be treated with caution [4] - In the medium - to - long term, due to expectations of Fed rate cuts, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified large - scale games, and the wave of de - dollarization, along with continued gold purchases by global central banks, the medium - to - long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On August 27, 2025, London gold spot was at $3,376.92/ounce, London silver spot was at $38.43/ounce, COMEX gold was at $3,426.60/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $38.47/ounce. Compared with August 26, the price of London gold remained unchanged, London silver fell 0.7%, COMEX gold rose 0.1%, and COMEX silver fell 0.6%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also showed corresponding changes, with AU2510 remaining unchanged, AG2510 falling 0.5%, AU (T + D) remaining unchanged, and AG (T + D) falling 0.6% [3] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On August 27, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.14 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 35 yuan/kg, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was 6.00 yuan/gram, and the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 582 yuan/kg. Compared with August 26, the price spreads showed different degrees of change, with the gold TD - SHFE active price spread falling 7.6%, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread rising 12.9%, the gold internal - external price spread rising 21.4%, and the silver internal - external price spread falling 4.7%. The SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 83.95, and the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 89.08, both showing slight increases [3] Position Data - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 26, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR held 959.92 tons, up 0.15% from August 25. The silver ETF - SLV held 15,274.6947 tons, down 0.09% [3] - **Non - commercial Positions in COMEX**: As of August 19, 2025 (weekly data), the non - commercial long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 4.46%, the non - commercial short positions increased by 6.92%, and the net long positions decreased by 7.36%. For COMEX silver, the non - commercial long positions increased by 2.79%, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 1.96%, and the net long positions increased by 5.15% [3] Inventory Data - On August 27, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 37,503 kg, unchanged from August 26. The SHFE silver inventory was 1,165,498 kg, up 3.39% from August 26. The COMEX gold inventory on August 26 was 38,578,730 troy ounces, up 0.04% from August 25, and the COMEX silver inventory on August 26 was 508,778,300 troy ounces, unchanged from August 25 [3] Related Market Data - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: From August 25 to August 27, 2025, the US dollar index fell 0.11%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 3.22%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.19%, the VIX fell 0.47%, the NYMEX crude oil price rose 0.41%, and the S&P 500 fell 2.21% [4] Market News and Analysis - Trump announced the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, who refused to resign and will sue. The Fed stated that only "just cause" can remove a governor and will abide by court decisions. The Trump administration is considering exerting greater influence on the 12 regional reserve banks of the Fed [4] - In July, the preliminary monthly change in US durable goods orders was - 2.8%, a second consecutive month of negative growth. However, the preliminary monthly change in core durable goods orders excluding aircraft and non - defense capital goods increased by 1.1%, exceeding expectations and indicating US economic resilience [4] - Trump said that the US has completed trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea, and a 50% tariff on India officially took effect on August 27 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA August report raised the U.S. soybean yield per acre to a record - high of 53.6 bushels/acre but cut the 2025/26 planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, resulting in a tighter supply - demand balance for new - crop U.S. soybeans. The Pro Farmer survey estimated a lower yield per acre at 63 bushels/acre, and the good - excellent rate remained high at 68%, with a possible yield reduction due to less rainfall and lower temperatures in the next two weeks [5]. - The import volume of soybeans to China is expected to exceed 10 million tons in August and September, and soybean meal is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. The purchase of ships from October to January is slow. Under Sino - U.S. trade policies, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month [5][6]. - In terms of demand, the high inventory of pig and poultry breeding supports the demand for soybean meal, but policy guidance controls pig inventory and weight, which may affect future pig supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is high, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. Some areas use wheat to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein. This week, the downstream transactions of soybean meal were cautious [6]. - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, the speed of soybean meal inventory accumulation has slowed down but is still in the accumulation cycle, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [6]. - Overall, the expectation of Sino - U.S. talks and domestic reserve sales are negative for the soybean meal market, and the crushing profit has deteriorated. With the support of import costs, the downside space below 101 is limited, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to Sino - U.S. policy changes [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of soybean meal's main contract in different regions on August 27: Dalian was 95 with a change of 26, Tianjin was 15 with a change of 16, etc. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in different regions also varied, such as - 5 in Zhangjiagang with a change of 26 [4]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 375 with a change of 17, and the futures price difference of the main contract was 420 with a change of - 19 [5]. 3.2 Inventory and Supply - Demand Data - Supply: The USDA report adjusted the 2025/26 U.S. soybean ending inventory from 310 million bushels in July to 290 million bushels. The expected import volume of soybeans to China in August and September is over 10 million tons [5]. - Demand: High inventory of pig and poultry breeding supports the demand for soybean meal, but policy controls on pig inventory and weight may affect future supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is high, but downstream transactions are cautious this week [6]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, soybean meal inventory accumulation has slowed but is still in the cycle, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [6]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The soybean meal market is affected by negative factors such as Sino - U.S. talks and domestic reserve sales, and the crushing profit has deteriorated. With import cost support, the downside space is limited, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to Sino - U.S. policy changes [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - Pulp futures are in a weak and volatile state due to the significant impact of the commodity macro - environment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: SP2601 is 5290, down 1.27% day - on - day and 1.67% week - on - week; SP2511 is 5010, down 1.18% day - on - day and 2.45% week - on - week; SP2509 is 4964, down 1.12% day - on - day and 2.59% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star is 5750, down 0.86% day - on - day and 1.71% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle is 5150, down 0.58% day - on - day and 0.96% week - on - week; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish is 4200, up 1.20% day - on - day and 1.20% week - on - week [1]. - **Outer - disk Quotes (Dollars)**: Chilean Silver Star is 720, down 2.70% compared to the previous period; Japanese - Western - American is 510, up 4.08% compared to the previous period; Chilean Venus is 620, unchanged [1]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star is 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish is 4182, up 4.03% month - on - month [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply - Side (Imports)**: In July 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 64.6 tons, down 4.72% month - on - month compared to June. The pulp shipment volume to China was 140 tons, up 3.30% compared to June [1]. - **Supply - Side (Domestic Production)**: On August 21, 2025, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 21.3 tons; the domestic production of chemimechanical pulp was 21 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: On August 21, 2025, pulp port inventory was 213.2 tons; futures delivery warehouse inventory was 25.2 tons [1]. - **Demand (Finished Paper Production)**: On August 21, 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.80 tons; the production of coated paper was 7.10 tons; the production of tissue paper was 28.20 tons; the production of white cardboard was 31.80 tons [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On August 27, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 140 with a quantile level of 0.875; the Silver Star basis was 740 with a quantile level of 0.93 [1]. - **Import Profit**: On August 27, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 134 with a quantile level of 0.403; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 18 with a quantile level of 0.654 [1]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Summary - **Supply - Side News**: Brazil's Suzano announced a $20/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025, and its commercial pulp production in the next 12 - month operating cycle will decrease by about 3.5% compared to its annual nominal capacity. Chile's Arauco notified the August offer, with the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star at $720/ton, the supply of broad - leaf pulp Star reduced by 50%, and the price of natural - colored pulp Venus at $590/ton [1]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: Current paper product demand is basically stable, but the prices of mainstream paper products have not stopped falling, so the demand side is still bearish for pulp prices [1]. - **Inventory - Side Situation**: As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 209.9 tons, an increase of 5.1 tons from the previous period, a 2.5% increase month - on - month, showing an inventory - accumulating trend [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Domestic PTA plants have experienced concentrated breakdowns and maintenance, leading to a slight decline in domestic PTA production. The spread between PX and naphtha has widened, and the weakness of benzene prices has somewhat suppressed the further increase of PX production. The spread between PX and MX has rebounded, and the downstream load of polyester has remained at around 88%. The inventory of polyester factories is optimistic. The main polyester production cuts are concentrated in staple fiber and bottle chip varieties. With the recent improvement in sales and inventory reduction, polyester prices have performed well, especially the inventory of filament has been well reduced, sales have been continuously optimistic, and profits have been significantly repaired. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent device progress on the market [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4870 to 4835, a decrease of 35 [2] - MEG domestic price remained unchanged at 4553 [2] - PTA closing price decreased from 4870 to 4824, a decrease of 46 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 4490 to 4481, a decrease of 9 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price remained unchanged at 6680 [2] - Short - fiber basis increased from 103 to 118, an increase of 15 [2] - 9 - 10 spread decreased from 130 to 104, a decrease of 26 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5700 [2] - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber remained unchanged at 980 [2] - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5950 to 5926, a decrease of 24 [2] - Hot - filled polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5950 to 5926, a decrease of 24 [2] - Carbonated polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6050 to 6026, a decrease of 24 [2] - Outer - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 785 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 261 to 267, an increase of 5.93 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10350 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee remained unchanged at 3670 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300 [2] - Cotton 328 price decreased from 15240 to 15215, a decrease of 25 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1110 to 1120, an increase of 9.45 [2] - Virgin three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7120 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 231 to 261, an increase of 29.93 [2] - Virgin low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7470 [2] 2. Market Conditions - Polyester staple fiber: The price of polyester staple fiber production plants was stalemate, the price of traders declined, downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines, the purchasing willingness was low, and the on - site transactions were sluggish. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6450 - 6750 in cash, spot, tax - included, self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6570 - 6870 in cash, spot, tax - included, delivered; in the Fujian market, it was 6490 - 6600 in cash, spot, tax - included, delivered [2] - Bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5930 - 6050 yuan/ton, and the average price decreased by 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. On the day, polyester raw materials and bottle chip futures fluctuated. The supply side's quotations were a mixture of stable and falling. Downstream terminals followed up cautiously, and the market transaction was cold. The price center of bottle chips declined [2] 3. Operating Rates and Sales - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 91.10% to 90.60% [3] - Polyester staple fiber sales decreased from 40.00% to 37.00%, a decrease of 3.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) decreased from 62.80% to 62.00% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 49.00% to 49.50% [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a downward trend with no new driving forces, and the price center of gravity has shifted downwards. The market is in a daily - level correction trend without signs of stabilization. The spread between near - and far - month contracts has slightly widened, but it is not considered sustainable. The overall industrial data shows little change, with weak upward price drivers and lackluster terminal demand. The market risk preference is expected to marginally improve, and the steel futures price valuation has been repaired to a neutral range [2]. - The double - silicon market has followed the weakening of the black sector. Although the anti - involution policy provides long - term support, the industry still has high inventory and de - stocking pressure. The profit of alloy plants has been repaired, and the supply has continued to increase [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is in a weak state. The eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and the market expects 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts in September. The coking coal auction has a high non - successful bid rate, and the market is mainly trading based on the verification of peak - season actual demand and the performance of steel inventories [5]. - The iron ore market has seen a decline in commodity sentiment. Although the apparent demand for major steel products has rebounded, the iron ore supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, which will suppress price increases. The impact of future policies on the steel sector may have a greater influence on iron ore price fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Closing Prices and Changes**: On August 27, the closing prices of far - month contracts such as RB2601, HC2601, etc. showed varying degrees of decline. For example, RB2601 closed at 3172 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan (- 1.06%); the closing prices of near - month contracts also declined, with RB2510 closing at 3111 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (- 0.48%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads between near - and far - month contracts, such as the spread between RB2510 and RB2601, were - 61 yuan on August 27, with a change of - 13 yuan. The spread/ratio/ profit indicators like the coil - to - screw spread, screw - to - ore ratio, etc., also had corresponding changes [1]. **Steel Products** - **Market Trend**: The market continued to decline slightly on Wednesday, in a daily - level correction trend without signs of stabilization. The spread between near - and far - month contracts widened slightly, but it is not considered sustainable. The industrial data showed little change, with weak upward price drivers and lackluster terminal demand. The market risk preference is expected to marginally improve, and the steel futures price valuation has been repaired to a neutral range [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize for unilateral trading, and stop losses and wait and see after short - term long positions. For spot - futures trading, positive spreads can be taken profit or rolled over according to the basis changes [7]. **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon** - **Market Trend**: The double - silicon market has followed the weakening of the black sector. The anti - involution policy provides long - term support, but the industry still has high inventory and de - stocking pressure. The profit of alloy plants has been repaired, and the supply has continued to increase [4]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see [7]. **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Trend**: The coking coal auction has a high non - successful bid rate, and the eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented. The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts in September. The market is mainly trading based on the verification of peak - season actual demand and the performance of steel inventories [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to whether the impact of the mine accident will spread, and industrial customers can pay attention to hedging opportunities after the price rises [7]. **Iron Ore** - **Market Trend**: The short - term commodity price has fallen after rising, and the upward momentum of the sector is insufficient. The iron ore supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, which will suppress price increases. The impact of future policies on the steel sector may have a greater influence on iron ore price fluctuations [6]. - **Investment Strategy**: Not clearly mentioned in the text.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The PTA market declined due to the failure of crude oil to recover Tuesday's losses, the negation of PX device maintenance rumors, and sufficient spot supply [2]. - The ethylene glycol (MEG) market showed narrow - range fluctuations in futures prices and slightly stronger basis negotiations [2]. - The polyester market showed positive price performance, especially in terms of good inventory reduction in filament, with continuous optimistic sales and significant profit repair [2]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude dropped from 496.1 yuan/barrel on August 26th to 479.7 yuan/barrel on August 27th, a decrease of 16.40 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased from 1264.8 yuan/ton to 1338.0 yuan/ton; PTA/SC rose from 1.3508 to 1.3838. The PTA main contract price fell from 4870 yuan/ton to 4824 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped from 4870 yuan/ton to 4835 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX decreased from 864 to 854, and the PX - naphtha spread narrowed from 272 to 254 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main contract price decreased from 4490 yuan/ton to 4481 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha was (100.00) yuan/ton on August 26th and (100.19) yuan/ton on August 27th [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Operation - **Operating Rates**: PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester load operating rates remained unchanged at 80.38%, 72.16%, 60.27%, and 86.11% respectively [2]. 3.3 Product Performance - **Polyester Filament**: POY cash flow improved from (54) to (24); FDY cash flow improved from (299) to (269); DTY cash flow improved from (74) to (69). The filament sales rate decreased from 50% to 40% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price remained unchanged at 6680 yuan/ton, and the cash flow increased from 91 to 121. The short - fiber sales rate decreased from 41% to 39% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The semi - bright chip price decreased from 5890 yuan/ton to 5880 yuan/ton, and the cash flow improved from (149) to (129). The chip sales rate increased from 54% to 67% [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China started maintenance today, and another 2.5 - million - ton device is expected to start maintenance around August 23rd, with an expected maintenance time of over one month [2].

Report Summary 1. Market Data Review - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a -0.02bp change, DR007 at 1.51 with a 1.99bp change, GC001 at 1.51 with a 5.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.55 with no change. SHBOR 3M was at 1.55 with no change, and LPR 5 - year was at 3.50 with no change. 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.35 (-0.15bp), 1.60 (-0.25bp), and 1.76 (0.20bp) respectively, while 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 4.26 (-2.00bp) [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 4058 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and had 5803 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 3000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4745 billion yuan [3] - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 decreased by 1.49%, 1.73%, 1.46%, and 1.87% respectively. Their corresponding futures contracts IF, IH, IC, and IM also decreased. The trading volume and open interest of these futures contracts increased, with IC's trading volume rising by 47.8% and open interest by 10.6% [5] - **Stock Market**: The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 31656 billion yuan. Shipbuilding, education, real estate, chemical raw materials, textile and clothing, and cement building materials led the decline, while only small metals and power equipment rose [6] 2. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: This week, 20770 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, along with 3000 billion yuan of MLF on Tuesday, 5000 billion yuan of 6 - month and 4000 billion yuan of 3 - month buy - out reverse repurchases on Friday [4] - **Stock Market Analysis**: After a continuous strong and heavy - volume rise, the stock market experienced a pull - back. Rumors of window guidance from the CSRC were spread to cool the market. The PE ratios of the four major stock indexes are in the top 70% of historical levels, but equity assets still have an advantage over risk - free rates. The risk - premium rate of the CSI 300 is at a relatively high level, indicating certain allocation value. As the key macro - event nodes in September approach, the stock index is expected to be more volatile, and it is recommended to reduce positions moderately and adjust the layout to a long - dominated strategy [6] 3. Futures Contract Premium and Discount - **IF**: The premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 0.77%, 1.46%, 1.69%, and 1.79% respectively [7] - **IH**: The premium and discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are - 0.99%, 0.04%, - 0.51%, and - 0.45% respectively [7] - **IC**: The premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 5.73%, 7.17%, 7.72%, and 7.48% respectively [7] - **IM**: The premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 10.66%, 9.90%, 9.42%, and 9.07% respectively [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Pork, Bitumen (bullish on short - term rebound), Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Combustion Fatigue [1] - **Bearish**: Asphalt, Short - fiber, Hemp, Urea (limited upside), PE (price oscillates weakly), Container Shipping to Europe [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Treasury Bonds, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, TV4E, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coke, Coal Coke, Cotton, Sugar, New - season Corn, New - season Soybeans, Pulp, Logs, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, PVC, Spot Goods [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market liquidity is still abundant, with A - share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion, and the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previous high of "924". Under internal and external favorable factors, market sentiment is good, and stock index futures may continue to run strongly [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - The dovish stance of the Fed Chairman boosts the September interest - rate cut expectation, which is beneficial to precious metals and copper prices in the short term [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, most varieties are affected by macro - sentiment and their own fundamentals, showing different trends such as oscillation and rebound [1]. - In the black metal sector, most varieties are in an oscillating state due to neutral valuation, unclear industrial drive, and warm macro - drive [1]. - In the agricultural product sector, different varieties are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, seasonal factors, and policy, showing different trends [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products are affected by factors such as production capacity, supply - demand relationship, and macro - policy, with different investment ratings [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: May continue to run strongly due to abundant liquidity and good market sentiment [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillate as the asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks [1] - **Gold and Silver**: Bullish as the Fed Chairman's dovish stance boosts the September interest - rate cut expectation [1] - **Copper**: Bullish as the Fed Chairman's dovish stance boosts the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [1] - **Aluminum**: Oscillates as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation rises, but domestic downstream demand is under pressure in the off - season [1] - **Alumina**: Consider far - month long - position layout opportunities as production and inventory increase, but bauxite shipments decline in the rainy season in Guinea [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Zinc**: Rebounds due to improved macro - sentiment, but the upside space is limited due to large domestic fundamental pressure [1] - **Nickel**: Oscillates and rebounds following the macro - situation, with attention paid to supply and macro - changes. Long - term excess of primary nickel still suppresses prices [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillates and rebounds in the short term, affected by the macro - situation. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills and short - term trading opportunities [1] - **Tin**: The tin price is boosted by improved macro - sentiment, with short - term weak supply and demand. Pay attention to the seasonal maintenance of Yunnan smelters [1] Energy and Chemicals - **TV4E**: Oscillates due to supply resumption in the southwest and northwest, large hedging pressure, and strong market sentiment [1] - **Polysilicon**: Oscillates with long - term production - capacity reduction expectation, low terminal installation willingness, and considerable profits [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Oscillates due to frequent resource - end disturbances and limited subsequent restocking space after large short - term restocking by downstream [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: Oscillate as the valuation returns to neutral, the industrial drive is unclear, and the macro - drive is warm [1] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillates as the near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month has upward opportunities [1] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Oscillate, following the black - metal sector in the short term with long - term anti - involution [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Oscillate weakly as the reality is weak, and the market focuses on fundamentals [1] - **Coke and Coal Coke**: Oscillate weakly as the steel inventory accumulates faster than seasonally, and the market suppresses supply by lowering steel prices [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Have different price trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, production reduction, and policy [1] - **Cotton**: Increases in the short term, with the near - month squeeze - out logic dominant. Pay attention to the time window and quota release [1] - **Sugar**: Runs strongly but with limited upside. Pay attention to the 5600 - 6000 range [1] - **New - season Corn and New - season Soybeans**: Oscillate at low levels or due to factors such as harvest pressure and import - cost support [1] - **Pulp**: Consider the 11 - 1 reverse spread as the 11 - contract is under pressure from old warehouse receipts [1] - **Logs**: Oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan/m³ as the valuation is reasonable [1] - **Pork**: Bullish as the near - month contract is weak, and there are peak - season expectations for 11 and 01 contracts [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: May rebound in the short term as the previous pessimistic expectation is corrected, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and there is a short - term rebound demand [1] - **Asphalt**: Bearish as the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified [1] - **Natural Rubber and BR Rubber**: Have different trends due to factors such as rainfall in domestic producing areas, inventory, and market sentiment [1] - **PTA and Ethylene Glycol**: Have different supply - demand situations and price trends [1] - **Short - fiber and Hemp**: Bearish due to factors such as increased factory maintenance and weakening market trading [1] - **Urea**: Oscillates with limited upside due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but with cost - end support [1] - **PE, PP, and PVC**: Oscillate due to factors such as maintenance, orders, and macro - sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Runs strongly due to factors such as capacity reduction expectations, tariff extensions, and supply - demand changes [1] Other - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The freight rate is expected to decline as the September supply exceeds the same - period level, and the high - price quotes are expected to converge [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The dovish remarks from Powell at the global central bank annual meeting increased the certainty of a September interest rate cut in the US, causing the US dollar index to weaken in recent trading days. The recent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is mainly driven by the weak US dollar, and there are also positive domestic signals. If the stock market rally continues, the RMB exchange rate may gain new support. It is recommended to pay attention to domestic policy guidance [2][17][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Exchange Rate Market Situation - Since last Friday, the exchange - rate market has seen amplified fluctuations due to the global central bank annual meeting. The US dollar index has weakened, non - US currencies have strengthened, the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar but depreciated against a basket of currencies, and the on - shore, offshore, and mid - price of the RMB have converged [2][10][17] - In April, the RMB exchange rate reached a high of 7.4295 and then appreciated. Recently, it has strengthened again, reaching a low of 7.1407 (offshore). The US dollar index has dropped from around 103 to below 100, and the RMB exchange - rate index has been declining unilaterally since April [3] Factors Affecting the US Dollar - This year, overseas uncertainties and geopolitical risks have increased, and the US dollar's fluctuations are centered around the Trump administration, Fed policies, and the US economy. The impact of tariffs is stabilizing, and future attention will focus on how macro data affects Fed policies [17] - Powell's dovish remarks increased the certainty of a September interest rate cut, and Trump's intention to remove Fed governor Cook may increase his control over the Fed, challenging the Fed's independence. The US dollar index has weakened and broken the rebound trend since July [2][17] Factors Affecting the RMB - The recent appreciation of the RMB is mainly due to the weak US dollar. Domestically, the central bank has increased the issuance of offshore central - bank bills in August, with new issuance of 45 billion and net financing of 30 billion after deducting maturities. The mid - price has strengthened, signaling an intention to stabilize the exchange rate [2][19] - The stock market has reached a 10 - year high in the past two months, but the rally has not driven the RMB exchange rate up as foreign investors have mainly reduced their bond holdings. If the stock - market rally continues, the RMB exchange rate may get new support [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The new US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is tight. Under the current China - US trade policy, the discount of Brazilian soybeans is expected to have a limited decline. With the support of import costs, the downside space below 00 is expected to be limited. The futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and show a volatile upward trend in the medium - to - long - term due to the expected increase in costs. Attention should be paid to changes in China - US policies [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield per acre from 52.5 to 53.6 bushels per acre, a record high, but unexpectedly cut the 25/26 US soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. As a result, the 25/26 US soybean ending stocks were cut from 310 million bushels in July to 290 million bushels [5]. - The Pro Farmer inspection showed that the estimated yield per acre of new US soybeans was 63 bushels, lower than the USDA estimate. The good - excellent rate of US soybeans remained at 68%, still at a high level. Rainfall in the production areas in the next two weeks was expected to be low, but the temperature was low, which might lead to a downward revision of the good - excellent rate [5]. - The arrival of soybeans in China in August and September is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to remain in the inventory accumulation cycle. Shipments from October to January are slow, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current China - US trade policy [5][6]. Demand - Short - term high inventory levels of pigs and poultry support soybean meal demand. However, policy - oriented control of pig inventory and weight is expected to affect far - month pig supply [6]. - Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and提货 is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of high - protein feed. Soybean meal downstream transactions this week are relatively cautious [6]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. The inventory accumulation rate of soybean meal has slowed down but is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [6]. Price and Spread - The report provides data on the basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in different regions such as Dalian, Tianjin, and Zhangjiagang, as well as the basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong, and various spread data such as M9 - M1, M9 - RM9, etc. [4][5]