Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market is experiencing a rebound, mainly due to the market's increased expectation of interest rate cuts after Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the anticipation of a rush to ship furniture before potential tariffs. However, the current shipping market demand remains weak, with spot freight rates accelerating to the bottom, and the overall trend is downward [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Index Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and related sub - indices showed declines, with SCFI - Northwest Europe having the largest decline of - 8.35%, and EC2510 in the derivatives having the largest increase of 3.74% [5]. - **Positions**: There were changes in the positions of various contracts, such as a decrease of 22 in the EC2606 position and an increase of 102 in the EC2410 position [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 all increased, with the 12 - 4 spread increasing by 16.0 [5]. 3.2 Market Situation - **Demand and Supply**: The demand in the shipping market is weak. In late August, the increase in overtime ships pressured the spot freight rates. The market is buyer - dominated, and there are no clear price - increase plans from shipping companies. The announced empty - sailing rate for European routes in September is low, and the supply of shipping capacity is abundant in the short term [8]. - **Port Conditions**: European main ports such as Germany and the Netherlands are congested, and the on - time rate of the Asia - Europe route has decreased by 13.3%, which may affect subsequent cabin allocation and arrival cycles [8]. - **Policy Impact**: Trump's potential tariff policy on furniture and the global over - capacity problem have further suppressed trade volume [8]. 3.3 Market Trend and Strategy - **Trend**: Shipping companies are accelerating the price - cut rhythm to maintain market share, and the overall downward trend of freight rates is established. The spot freight rate is in the stage of accelerating to the bottom, and the follow - up decline of the futures market may be smaller [9]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to short the October contract on rallies and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [10].

Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DR001 closed at 1.35 with a -6.26 bp change, DR007 at 1.52 with a 5.39 bp change, GC001 at 1.09 with a -9.00 bp change, and GC007 at 1.51 with a 2.50 bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M was at 1.55 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change [3] - 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.37 with a -1.25 bp change, 5 - year at 1.61 with a -1.95 bp change, 10 - year at 1.76 with a -2.10 bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.26 with a -7.00 bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 2884 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%, and 2665 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net investment of 219 billion yuan [3] - This week, 20770 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and there will also be 3000 billion yuan of MLF maturing on Tuesday, 5000 billion yuan of 6 - month and 4000 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchases maturing on Friday [4] Group 2: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 closed at 4469 with a 2.08% increase, the SSE 50 at 2990 with a 2.09% increase, the CSI 500 at 6952 with a 1.89% increase, and the CSI 1000 at 7478 with a 1.56% increase [5] - The trading volume of the CSI 300 futures (IF) was 180751 with a 29.0% increase, and the open interest was 289604 with a 4.5% increase; the trading volume of the SSE 50 futures (IH) was 89047 with a 21.2% increase, and the open interest was 120186 with a 5.9% increase; the trading volume of the CSI 500 futures (IC) was 148122 with a 15.2% increase, and the open interest was 244555 with a 4.7% increase; the trading volume of the CSI 1000 futures (IM) was 309362 with a 11.4% increase, and the open interest was 399769 with a 2.2% increase [5] - The trading volume of the two - stock markets reached 31411 billion yuan, an increase of 5944 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and sectors such as non - ferrous metals and real estate development led the gains [5] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy - The CSI 300 and SSE 50 further made up for lost ground, and the market continued to be strong. Shanghai adjusted housing policies, and the Fed signaled a rate cut in September [6] - Market liquidity remained abundant, and A - share daily trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan. The overall macro news was positive, and the stock index was expected to continue to run strongly [6] - In terms of strategy, long - position varieties could be tilted towards IF or IH to reduce position fluctuations and risks [6] Group 4: Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF were -1.76% for the current - month contract, -0.37% for the next - month contract, 0.83% for the current - quarter contract, and 1.05% for the next - quarter contract [7] - The premium and discount rates of IH were -1.05% for the current - month contract, -0.72% for the next - month contract, -0.37% for the current - quarter contract, and -0.47% for the next - quarter contract [7] - The premium and discount rates of IC were 8.88% for the current - month contract, 7.44% for the next - month contract, 7.55% for the current - quarter contract, and 7.18% for the next - quarter contract [7] - The premium and discount rates of IM were 12.79% for the current - month contract, 10.38% for the next - month contract, 9.08% for the current - quarter contract, and 8.72% for the next - quarter contract [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic PTA plants have experienced concentrated breakdowns and maintenance, leading to a slight decline in domestic PTA production [2]. - The spread between PX and naphtha has widened, and the weakness of benzene prices has to some extent suppressed the further increase in PX production. The spread between PX and MX has rebounded, and the downstream load of polyester has remained at around 88%. The inventory of polyester factories is optimistic [2]. - The main polyester production cuts are concentrated in short - fiber and bottle - chip varieties. With the recent improvement in production and sales and inventory reduction, polyester prices have shown good performance, especially the inventory of filament has been well reduced, production and sales have been continuously optimistic, and profits have been significantly repaired. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent device progress on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Indicators 3.1 Price and Spread Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4870 to 4850, a change of - 20 [2]. - MEG inner - market price increased from 4518 to 4542, a change of 24 [2]. - PTA closing price decreased from 4868 to 4862, a change of - 6 [2]. - MEG closing price increased from 4474 to 4509, a change of 35 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6680 to 6675, a change of - 5 [2]. - Short - fiber basis increased from 98 to 108, a change of 10 [2]. - 9 - 10 spread decreased from 108 to 110, a change of - 2 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2]. - The spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 980 to 975, a change of - 5 [2]. - East China water bottle - chip price decreased from 5975 to 5954, a change of - 21 [2]. - Hot - filling polyester bottle - chip price decreased from 5975 to 5954, a change of - 21 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle - chip price decreased from 6075 to 6054, a change of - 21 [2]. - Outer - market water bottle - chip price remained unchanged at 780 [2]. - Bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 298 to 286, a change of - 11.94 [2]. - T32S pure - polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10350 [2]. - T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3670 to 3675, a change of 5 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300 [2]. - Cotton 328 price increased from 15180 to 15260, a change of 80 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1133 to 1106, a change of - 26.93 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7100 [2]. - Hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 223 to 232, a change of 9.06 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point short - fiber price increased from 7450 to 7470, a change of 20 [2]. 3.2 Market Conditions - In the short - fiber market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production plants are stable, while those of traders are stable or falling. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and on - site transactions are sluggish [2]. - In the bottle - chip market, the mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is between 5950 - 6080 yuan/ton, with the average price down 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. Polyester raw materials and bottle - chip futures fluctuate within a narrow range, the supply - side offers are a mix of stable and falling, downstream terminals follow up cautiously, and the market trading atmosphere is light [2]. 3.3 Operating Rates and Production - Sales Ratios - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 90.60% to 91.10%, a change of 0.01 [3]. - Polyester staple fiber production - sales ratio decreased from 61.00% to 45.00%, a change of - 16.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 62.00% to 62.80%, a change of 0.01 [3]. - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 49.50% to 49.00%, a change of 0.01 [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: Domestic PTA device failures led to a slight decline in production. The spread between PX and naphtha expanded, and the weak benzene price restricted further increase in PX output. The spread between PX and MX recovered, polyester downstream load remained around 88%, and polyester factory inventory was optimistic. Polyester prices were positive, especially the inventory of filament was well - reduced, sales were optimistic, and profits were significantly repaired. Investors should pay attention to the impact of subsequent device progress on the market and be cautious due to large price fluctuations [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): There are rumors of a major reform in the domestic petrochemical and refining industries, aiming to phase out small and outdated facilities and shift investment to advanced materials. South Korean naphtha cracking units plan to cut production, leading to a significant increase in olefin varieties. The price of MEG has recovered, overseas MEG device overhauls, especially in Saudi Arabia, have been continuously postponed, which may significantly impact the market. The future arrival volume of MEG will decrease, polyester inventory is acceptable, and downstream weaving load has rebounded [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Data Changes - **Crude Oil and PTA - Crude Oil Relationship**: INE crude oil price dropped from 493.6 yuan/barrel on August 22, 2025, to 492.9 yuan/barrel on August 25, 2025, a decrease of 0.70 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC decreased from 1281.0 yuan/ton to 1280.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.91 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio increased slightly from 1.3571 to 1.3574, an increase of 0.0003 [2]. - **PX - Related Data**: CFR China PX increased from 857 to 859, an increase of 2. The PX - naphtha spread increased from 270 to 272, an increase of 2 [2]. - **PTA - Related Data**: PTA's main futures price dropped from 4868 yuan/ton to 4862 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.0 yuan/ton. The spot price dropped from 4870 yuan/ton to 4850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 250.6 yuan/ton to 245.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.4 yuan/ton. The disk processing fee decreased from 253.6 yuan/ton to 247.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.4 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased from 23 to 22, a decrease of 1.0. The number of PTA warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 30940 [2]. - **MEG - Related Data**: MEG's main futures price increased from 4474 yuan/ton to 4509 yuan/ton, an increase of 35.0 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha increased from (96.47) yuan/ton to (90.66) yuan/ton, an increase of 5.8 yuan/ton. MEG's domestic price increased from 4518 yuan/ton to 4542 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.0 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from 89 to 95, an increase of 6.0 [2]. - **Polyester Product - Related Data**: In polyester filament, POY150D/48F price decreased by 20.0, POY cash flow decreased by 11.0; FDY150D/96F price remained unchanged, FDY cash flow increased by 9.0; DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged, DTY cash flow increased by 9.0; filament sales decreased by 25%. In polyester staple fiber, 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased by 5, polyester staple fiber cash flow increased by 4.0, and staple fiber sales decreased by 18%. In polyester chips, semi - bright chip price decreased by 10.0, chip cash flow decreased by 1.0, and chip sales decreased by 21% [2]. b) Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained unchanged at 80.38%. PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 74.74%. MEG start - up rate increased from 59.80% to 60.27%, an increase of 0.47%. Polyester load remained unchanged at 86.34% [2]. c) Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China started maintenance on August 26, 2025, and another 2.5 - million - ton device was expected to start maintenance around August 23, with an expected maintenance time of over one month [2].

| ER FARFER | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | 2025/08/26 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | Z0010820 | F0286636 | 黄志鸿 | Z0015761 | F3051824 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | Z0020036 | F03094002 | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | 7000 | 1000 | 12605 | RB2601 | JM2605 | HC2601 | J2605 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/8/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX日银 | AU2510 | AG2510 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/8/25 | 3368. 02 | 38. 93 | 3412. 50 | 38.92 | 779. 18 | 9394.00 | 775. 67 | 9357.00 | | (本表數 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The fundamentals provide weak support for the futures price, and it is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation pattern [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 82,500 yuan, down 1,400 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 80,200 yuan, down 1,400 yuan [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2509 closed at 79,580 yuan, down 0.72%; 2510 closed at 79,580 yuan, down 0.45%; 2511 closed at 79,380 yuan, down 0.3%; 2512 closed at 79,040 yuan, down 0.15%; 2601 closed at 78,700 yuan, down 0.15% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 925 yuan, down 9 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,265 yuan, down 20 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,995 yuan, down 60 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6,685 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7,735 yuan, down 90 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 35,810 yuan, down 340 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,950 yuan, down 60 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 119,525 yuan, down 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,985 yuan, down 100 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,300 yuan, with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 3,120 yuan, down 1,820 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 0 yuan, with no change; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 200 yuan, up 20 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 141,543 tons, down 713 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 46,846 tons, down 2,847 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 51,507 tons, up 3,224 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,190 tons, down 1,090 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 25,630 tons, up 640 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 78,817 yuan, and the profit is 2,516 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 81,868 yuan, and the profit is - 5,641 yuan [3] Industry Event - A meeting of the lithium iron phosphate material branch council was held to discuss industry over - capacity reduction and low - carbon transformation paths [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - Although there is a production cut in the Jiangxi mica segment, overseas mines, overseas salt lakes, and domestic compliant mines have provided supplements, showing a structural adjustment on the supply side. On the demand side, weekly production is basically stable, with inventory moving from upstream to downstream but limited actual consumption [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pulp prices in the futures market showed mixed trends on August 25, 2025, with some contracts rising day - on - day but falling week - on - week. The demand for paper products is stable, but the prices of mainstream paper products have not stopped falling, which is negative for pulp prices. The inventory has been accumulating. It is recommended to do a reverse spread between the 11 - contract and the 1 - contract [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Paper Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 25, 2025, SP2601 was 5402, up 0.71% day - on - day and down 1.35% week - on - week; SP2511 was 5136, up 0.55% day - on - day and down 2.21% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5088, up 0.59% day - on - day and down 2.15% week - on - week [1] - **Spot Prices**: On August 25, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5800, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.85% week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5180, up 0.58% day - on - day and down 2.26% week - on - week; Eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was 4150, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.19% week - on - week [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In August 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 510 dollars, up 4.08% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [1] - **Import Costs**: In August 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Japanese - Western - American was 4182, up 4.03% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1] Paper Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply - side**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, down 4.72% month - on - month; the import volume of eucalyptus pulp was 135.1 tons, down 5.85% month - on - month. The domestic production of eucalyptus pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed minor fluctuations from July to August 2025 [1] - **Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the paper pulp port inventory was 213.2 tons; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 25.2 tons. As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream paper pulp ports increased by 2.5% month - on - month [1] - **Demand - side**: The production of finished paper products such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed minor fluctuations from July to August 2025 [1] Paper Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On August 25, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 44, with a quantile level of 0.785; the Silver Star basis was 664, with a quantile level of 0.895 [1] - **Import Profit**: On August 25, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 84, with a quantile level of 0.477; that of eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was - 32, with a quantile level of 0.612 [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: Brazil's Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025, and its commodity pulp production in the next 12 - month operating cycle will decrease by about 3.5% compared to its annual nominal capacity. Chile's Arauco notified the August quotes, with reduced supply [1] - **Demand - side**: The current demand for paper products is basically stable, but the prices of mainstream paper products have not stopped falling, which is negative for pulp prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The current market liquidity is still abundant, with the A-share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion. The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the previous high of "924". Under internal and external favorable factors, market sentiment is good, and the stock index may continue to operate strongly [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - The dovish stance of the Federal Reserve Chairman has boosted the expectation of a September interest rate cut, leading to a strong rebound in precious metals, and silver has greater elasticity than gold [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Expected to continue to operate strongly due to abundant liquidity and positive market sentiment [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In a volatile state as asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risk warnings from the central bank suppress the upside [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The dovish statement of the Federal Reserve Chairman boosts the interest rate cut expectation, leading to a strong rebound, with silver more elastic than gold [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the increase in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectation, the copper price is expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: Although the interest rate cut expectation rises, the domestic downstream demand is under pressure during the off - season, so the price fluctuates [1]. - **Alumina**: Despite the weak fundamentals of increased production and inventory, the decline in bauxite shipments in Guinea during the rainy season, combined with high electrolytic aluminum profits, presents an opportunity to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1]. - **Zinc**: The price has rebounded due to improved macro - sentiment, but the large domestic fundamental pressure limits the upside space [1]. - **Nickel**: Driven by the dovish statement of the Federal Reserve Chairman, the price rebounds with macro - fluctuations in the short term. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, sell on rallies, and be aware that long - term over - supply of primary nickel still exists [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price rebounds with short - term fluctuations, affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, sell on rallies, and gradually take profits on spot - futures positive spreads [1]. - **Tin**: The price is boosted by improved macro - sentiment, but the short - term supply - demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the seasonal maintenance of Yunnan smelters [1]. Industrial Metals - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of capacity reduction in the long - term, low terminal installation willingness, and good profits, resulting in a volatile situation [1]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Resource - end disturbances are frequent, and the short - term downstream replenishment is large but the subsequent replenishment space is limited, leading to price fluctuations [1]. Building Materials and Steel - **Rebar**: The valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces provides a short - term support range, and the upward drive follows coal [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities due to good commodity sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the long - term, the "anti - involution" situation persists, and the short - term sector is weak with price pressure [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term sector is weak, and the price is under pressure due to long - term "anti - involution" [1]. - **Glass**: The current situation is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The steel inventory is accumulating faster than the seasonal average. The market suppresses the steel price to balance supply and demand, and the coke and coal fundamentals are weakening, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Their fundamentals are weakening, and the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with the same logic as for steel price suppression [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's low inventory and high export prices, along with the peak - season stocking in major consuming countries and the long - term "strong expectation" of B50 implementation in Indonesia next year, have an impact. The US decision on biodiesel blending obligations for small refineries next week will provide new guidance [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: There are expectations of reduced soybean arrivals, a consumption peak in the fourth quarter, and an open export trade flow, leading to a re - pricing. The support from raw material costs also drives the price up [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The reduction in Russian and Ukrainian rapeseed production and the lower - than - expected increase in sunflower seeds in the Black Sea region support the price. The increase in customs duty deposit for Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant reduction in supply, but the import of Australian rapeseed may ease the shortage [1]. - **Cotton**: The short - term price increases with position - building, and the 01 contract has limited upside. Attention should be paid to the time window from late July to early August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas [1]. - **Sugar**: It is operating strongly due to the rebound of raw sugar and peak - season demand, but the upside is limited, with attention paid to the 5600 - 6000 range [1]. - **Corn**: The new - season contracts C11 and C01 are under pressure due to the expected selling pressure during the autumn harvest and reduced planting costs. However, the relatively positive inventory - building attitude compared to last year limits the downward space on the futures market, with prices expected to fluctuate at a low level [1]. - **Soybeans**: The tight supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans and the relatively stable Brazilian soybean export CNF premium under the current Sino - US trade policy support the price. The market is expected to fluctuate due to frequent policy - related news [1]. - **Pulp**: The external market quotation has increased, and after the price decline, the pulp futures valuation is low, with a short - term expected rebound [1]. - **Logs**: The 09 contract is approaching delivery, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 790 - 810 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: The near - month contracts are weak due to spot market drag. In the second half of the year, as the inventory recovers, attention should be paid to weight reduction and consumption. The 11 and 01 contracts have peak - season expectations [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The short - term price has a rebound demand due to the un - reached agreement in the US - Russia meeting, continued OPEC+ production increase, and previous large price drops [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil price. The cost disturbance and demand recovery balance each other, resulting in limited fluctuations [1]. - **SHK Rubber**: The raw material cost is strongly supported by domestic产区 rainfall, the inventory reduction is slow, and the short - term commodity market sentiment is positive [1]. - **BR Rubber**: With continuous OPEC+ production increase, the crude oil fundamentals are loose. The BR market is stable and rising, and attention should be paid to the inventory levels of butadiene and BR9000 and the autumn maintenance of cis - butadiene plants [1]. - **PTA**: The domestic PTA production has decreased due to concentrated device maintenance. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded, and the weak benzene price restricts the further increase in PX production. The spread between PX and MX has recovered, and the profit has been repaired with improved sales and inventory reduction [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upside. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side, resulting in price fluctuations [1]. - **PVC**: With improved macro - sentiment, a decrease in maintenance compared to the previous period, and the arrival of the downstream seasonal peak season, the price fluctuates strongly [1]. - **PG**: Driven by market rumors of capacity reduction in the petrochemical and refining industries, the progress of the US - Russia meeting, changes in shipping costs, and supply - demand changes, the price is affected, and attention should be paid to the September contract cancellation and the 9 - 10 month spread [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: There are signs of a peak in freight rates, European ports are still congested, and the situation in August is more specific [1].

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - On August 22, 2025, the domestic LPG market price declined, with the average price dropping by 4 yuan/ton to 4422 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.09% [3]. - The closing price of the futures main - contract decreased by 6 yuan/ton to 4387 yuan/ton, a decline of -0.14% [3]. - The trading volume of the futures main - contract was 188,767 lots, a decrease of 6,094 lots compared to the previous day [3]. 2. International Situation - The previous trading day's CP was equivalent to about 3708.692 yuan/ton for propane and 3494.729 yuan/ton for butane in RMB [3]. - On August 21, international oil prices rose, boosting the external market. The expected value of September CP increased slightly by 1 dollar/ton. The Far - East demand continued to boost buying interest, supporting the premium price [3]. 3. Regional Market Analysis 3.1 East China - The average price of civil gas remained stable at 4398 yuan/ton. Supply was under control, production and sales were balanced, and the price was stable due to limited news guidance [3]. - The price of imported gas at some Jiangnan wharves increased by 50 yuan/ton, while other wharves remained stable [3]. 3.2 South China - The average price of civil gas decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 4490 yuan/ton, a decline of -0.66%. The market showed a differentiated trend, with prices in some areas dropping due to increased supply [3]. - In the industrial gas market, the inventory pressure in Zhanjiang was relieved, and prices were low [3]. 3.3 Shandong - The average price of civil gas increased by 10 yuan/ton to 4510 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.22%. The market continued the stable - to - rising trend [3]. - The average price of ether - post carbon four remained stable at 4620 yuan/ton [3]. 4. Spread Analysis 4.1 Inter - monthly Spread - The spread between PG2510 - PG2511 was 77 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - The spread between PG2510 - PG2512 was 138 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. 4.2 Inter - variety Spread - The spread between PG - 7.33*SC was - 25.79 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.92 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - The spread between PG - PP was - 139 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. 5. Other Information - The LPG market is oscillating weakly [3]. - The number of registered contracts decreased by 396 to 12,887 [3].