Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The domestic PVC powder market price showed a narrow - range adjustment today, with the mainstream market price fluctuating slightly and the price center in some local markets moving down slightly. The futures market oscillated within a range, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was low, with most buyers preferring to wait and see. However, some export orders were acceptable. Due to the high uncertainty of macro - policies, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [2][4] Summary by Relevant Content Raw Material Prices - Coal (Q5500) price on August 21 and 22, 2025, was 702, with no change [1] - Shaanxi medium - grade lanthanum charcoal price on August 21 and 22, 2025, was 630, with no change; Inner Mongolia lanthanum charcoal price increased from 2300 to 2350, a rise of 50 [1] - Shandong calcium carbide price on August 21 and 22, 2025, was 2755, with no change [1] Futures and Spot Prices - Futures (main continuous) price increased from 5004 to 5019 on August 21 - 22, 2025 [1] - Spot prices:华东SG - 5 remained at 4740 on August 21 - 22, 2025;华南SG - 5 decreased from 4840 to 4830;华北SG - 5 remained at 4750;西北SG - 5 decreased from 4650 to 4520;华东S - 1000 remained at 5000 [1] - Mainstream spot prices of 5 - type calcium carbide materials:华东 mainstream spot cash self - pick - up was 4760 - 4850 yuan/ton;华南 mainstream spot cash self - pick - up was 4780 - 4840 yuan/ton; Hebei spot cash delivery was 4650 - 4760 yuan/ton; Shandong spot cash delivery was 4730 - 4800 yuan/ton [2] Basis and Profit - Basis:华东 decreased from - 264 to - 279;华南 decreased from - 164 to - 189;华北 decreased from - 254 to - 269 [1] - Shandong calcium carbide method profit remained at - 914 on August 21 - 22, 2025 [1] Operating Rates and Inventory - Total operating rate was 80.33%, a decrease of 2.72% compared to 77.61% [4] - Calcium carbide method operating rate decreased from 79.96% to 76.81%, a decrease of 3.15%; Ethylene method operating rate decreased from 81.26% to 79.59%, a decrease of 1.67% [4] - Inventory:华东 decreased from 45.02 to 43.52;华南 increased from 5.76 to 5.78; Social inventory decreased from 50.8 to 49.28 [4] Outer - plate Prices - CFR China remained at 701; CFR Southeast Asia remained at 679; FAS Houston decreased from 627 to 617 [5]

| | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 [TG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | ,烯数据 FR | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询证:Z0017251 2025/08/25 | | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格证:F3066728 | | | 指标 | or C | 2025/08/21 | 2025/08/22 | 变动值 | 一现货综述 | | | 原油& | WTI | 62. 35 | 63.52 | 1. 17 | | | | 石脑油 | Brent | 65. 79 | 67.67 | 1.88 | | | | | 石脑油 | 574.5 | 584.5 | 110 | | | | | 乙烯 CFR东北亚 | | | | 苯乙烯:江苏市场涨价。成本存支撑,原油、纯苯整 | | 游 | | | 825 | 830 | 5 | 理,苯乙烯市场有装置检修消息和补货成交提振,现 | | | 纯苯 | CFR中国 | 747 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] 2) Core View - The domestic liquid caustic soda market had fair transactions today, with prices stable in most regions, rising slightly in Shandong, Hubei, and Guangxi for 32% liquid caustic soda, and rising in Shandong for 50% liquid caustic soda. The game between bulls and bears is intense, and it is recommended to continue to stay on the sidelines [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price - **Raw Salt**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Northwest regions remained stable at 200, 250, and 200 respectively [1] - **Calcium Carbide**: The price in Inner Mongolia increased by 50 to 2260, while that in Shandong remained at 2755 [1] - **Liquid Chlorine**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Northwest regions remained stable at -200, -200, and -600 respectively [1] - **32% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The price in Shandong increased by 10 to 850, while that in Jiangsu remained at 900 [1] - **50% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The price in Shandong increased by 10 to 1350, while that in Jiangsu remained at 1400 [1] - **Caustic Soda Flakes**: The prices in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, and Southwest regions remained stable at 3300, 3150, 3725, and 3750 respectively [1] - **PVC**: The prices in Shandong and Inner Mongolia remained stable at 4750 and 4525 respectively [1] Futures and Basis - **Futures Main Contract**: The closing price increased by 54 to 2741 [1] - **Basis**: The basis in Shandong decreased by 23 to -85, and that in Jiangsu decreased by 54 to 72 [1] Price Spreads - **50% Caustic Soda - 32% Caustic Soda Spread**: The spread in Shandong decreased by 11 to 44 [1] - **Caustic Soda Flakes - 50% Caustic Soda Spread**: The spread in Guangdong remained stable at 585 [1] - **50% Caustic Soda Regional Spread**: The spread between the East and Shandong decreased by 10 to 220 [1] - **Caustic Soda Flakes Regional Spread**: The spreads between Southwest and Inner Mongolia, and between Southwest and Shandong remained stable at 600 and 450 respectively [1] Profits and Electricity Prices - **Chlor - Alkali Profits**: The profit in Shandong increased by 35 to -90, while that in the Northwest decreased by 68 to 781 [1] - **Electricity Prices**: The electricity prices in Shandong and Inner Mongolia remained stable at 0.75 and 0.5 respectively [1] Operation Strategy - The game between bulls and bears is intense, and it is recommended to continue to stay on the sidelines [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents data on commodity options, including historical volatility, implied volatility, and provides strategy recommendations for different commodities based on their current volatility levels [3][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Commodity Historical Volatility - Various commodities' historical volatility data (HV20, HV40, HV60, HV120) and daily price changes are presented, such as for沪铝 (20590, 49%, 10.13%, 6%, 8%, 9%, 11%),沪铜 (78540, -0.05%, 6.52%, 7%, 10%, 9%, 16%), etc. [3] Commodity Implied Volatility - Data on implied volatility, including主力平值IV and主力平值IV分位值, are provided for different commodities like氧化铝 (62%, 20%, 55%),二烯橡胶 (41%, 88%), etc. [5] Strategy Recommendations - For碳酸锂, recommend selling a wide - straddle (卖出LC2509C80000 + 卖HLC2509P75000) on 2025.7.24 as its volatility is relatively high [9]. - For铁矿石,豆油, and菜油, recommend buying wide - straddles on 2025.6.3 as their volatilities are relatively low. For example, for铁矿石, buy 头入I2509C690 + 头入12509P700 [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Unilateral: BR is expected to move upward in a consolidation phase; Arbitrage: After the spread widens again, consider going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - The domestic butadiene market showed minor fluctuations this period. Affected by partial plant maintenance and reduced operation, domestic butadiene production decreased. Although inventory increased due to ship arrivals, there was no significant pressure on the supply side. Meanwhile, the relatively good operation of downstream industries provided some support to the market [3] - The domestic cis - butadiene rubber supply maintained an increase. The market was influenced by macro - capital speculation and the significant trend of natural rubber. The supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's cis - butadiene rubber increased slightly. However, at the end of the period, due to rapid capital withdrawal from the futures market and some uncertain rumors about the upstream supply in China and South Korea, the futures and spot markets fluctuated widely [3] Price and Spread - **Futures Market**: The closing price of BR2510.SHF was 11,715 yuan/ton, up 0.51%; the settlement price was 11,790 yuan/ton, up 2.03%. The trading volume was 106,881 lots, down 36.78%; the open interest was 38,436 lots, down 62,183 lots or 36.78% [3] - **Spot Market**: The prices of domestic butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price of butadiene in Shandong was 9,400 - 9,450 yuan/ton, and the price of cis - butadiene rubber in different brands and regions also had certain differences [3] - **Futures Spread**: There were various changes in monthly spreads, cross - month spreads, and cross - variety spreads. For example, the spread between the second and third contracts of BR increased by 200% to 5 yuan/ton [3] Operation Strategy - Unilateral: BR is expected to move upward in a consolidation phase; Arbitrage: After the spread widens again, consider going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The rubber market shows a volatile performance. As the commodity market approaches the September delivery, it returns to the fundamental logic. The previous "anti - involution" trading expectation has cooled down, leading to weak commodity sentiment. Rubber may follow a volatile and weak trend. The recommended operation is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and focus on the arbitrage of going long on RU2509 and short on RU2601 [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - **Domestic Futures**: RU主力 price is 15720, up 45 from the previous value; NR主力 is 12600, up 75; BR主力 is 11775, up 60 [3]. - **Foreign Futures**: Tocom RSS3 is 316.5 yen/kg, up 2.7; Sicom TF is 170.8 cents/kg, unchanged [3]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: RU2601 - RU2509 is 1000, up 45; RU2605 - RU2601 is 95, down 10; NR主力 - 次主力 is - 20, down 70; BR主力 - 次主力 is 20, up 10 [3]. - **Futures Spreads**: RU - NR is 3120, down 30; RU - BR is 3945, down 15; NR - BR is 825, up 15 [3]. - **Cross - market Spreads**: RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) is 42, down 12; NR - Sicom TF ($) is 47, up 11 [3]. Raw Material Prices - **Thailand**: Glue price is 54.70 baht/kg, cup - rubber price is 49.20 baht/kg, down 0.15 [3][5]. - **Hainan and Yunnan**: Hainan glue for concentrated latex is 14400 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hainan glue for whole - milk is 13200 yuan/ton, down 200; Yunnan glue for concentrated latex is 14500 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan rubber block for whole - milk is 14200 yuan/ton, up 100 [3]. Factory Costs and Profits - **Concentrated Latex Production Profits**: Thailand is 929, up 55; Hainan is 640, unchanged [3]. - **Smoked Sheet and No.20 Rubber Gross Profits**: Thailand No.20 rubber is - 189, unchanged; domestic 9710 is 250, unchanged [3]. Domestic Spot - **Light - colored Rubber**: Old whole - milk is 14750, unchanged; Vietnam 3L is 14900, up 50; Thai mixed is 14620, up 90; Malaysian mixed is 14570, up 90 [3]. - **Dark - colored Rubber**: Thai standard is 12903, up 90; domestic standard No.2 is 13850, unchanged [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Butadiene rubber BR9000 is 11750, up 150; styrene - butadiene SBR1502 is 12300, up 150; styrene - butadiene SBR1712 is 11300, up 100 [3]. Overseas Spot - **Standard Rubber**: Thai standard CIF is 1815, up 20; Malaysian standard CIF is 1810, up 25; Indian standard CIF is 1735, up 15 [3]. Futures - Spot Spreads - **RU Spreads**: RU - Thai mixed is 100, down 90; RU - old whole - milk is - 30, unchanged; RU - Vietnam 3L is - 180, down 50 [3]. - **NR Spreads**: NR - Thai standard delivery profit is - 568, down 70; NR - Indian standard delivery profit is 6, down 70; NR - Malaysian standard delivery profit is - 532, down 105 [3]. Spot Spreads - **Variety Spreads**: Thai standard - Thai mixed ($) is 10, up 5; Vietnam 3L - Thai mixed is 280, down 40; domestic standard No.2 - Thai mixed is - 770, down 90 [3]. Supply, Inventory and Demand - **Supply**: Thailand's raw material glue price is 54.7 baht/kg, cup - rubber price is 49.20 baht/kg [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 17, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory is 128.5 tons, up 0.75 tons, an increase of 0.6%; dark - colored rubber social total inventory is 80.6 tons, up 1.2%; light - colored rubber social total inventory is 47.9 tons, down 0.4% [3]. - **Demand**: As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 64.97%, up 2.35 percentage points month - on - month and 7.01 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 71.87%, up 2.76 percentage points month - on - month and down 7.81 percentage points year - on - year [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market demand for asphalt is weak due to factors such as rainy weather in North China, restricted construction activities, and high social inventories in South China. The overall price of asphalt is expected to be weak in the short - to - medium term, although it may rise in the short term due to crude oil rebounds [7]. 3. Summary of Key Information Market Data - **Spot prices**: In the spot market, asphalt prices in East China remained at 3720 yuan, decreased by 10 yuan in North China to 3660 yuan, decreased by 10 yuan in the installation area to 3490 yuan, remained unchanged in Northeast China at 3915 yuan, remained unchanged in Northwest China at 4250 yuan, and decreased by 20 yuan in Shandong to 3510 yuan [1]. - **Futures prices**: For asphalt futures, the prices of BU2509, BU2510, BU2511, and BU2512 increased by 0.09%, 0.32%, 0.56%, and 0.57% respectively [1]. Industry News - China may introduce measures next month to cut long - term over - capacity in low - value - added areas of the petrochemical industry, with the specific plan awaiting final approval from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1]. - Petrochemical facilities operating for over 20 years need technological transformation, and the government will encourage enterprises to shift to the specialty fine - chemical field [2]. Inventory and Demand - As of August 15, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 200,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 419,000 barrels [2]. - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in June dropped to a three - month low, from 6.191 million barrels per day in May to 6.141 million barrels per day [4]. - Global oil demand in June surged by over 1 million barrels per day compared to May, while production growth was only half of that in May, leading to inventories below the five - year average [4][5]. Geopolitical News - The EU's next - round sanctions against Russia are expected to be ready in September [4]. - Ukraine's Odessa and Sumy regions were attacked, and the Ukrainian side called for pressure on Russia to end the conflict [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View In the context of the expectation of a new crop's high - yield and the reality of old - crop inventory shortage, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness is prominent. From late July to early August, multiple policies and industry events are in the window period. The content of domestic policy meetings, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, the actualization of new cotton's high - yield, whether the import sliding - duty quota will be increased and the amount of the increase have a significant impact on the Zhengzhou cotton's expectation. Among them, the increase in the import sliding - duty quota has a greater impact on the old - crop supply - demand and near - term contracts [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Cotton Futures and Spot Prices - **Domestic Cotton Futures**: On August 21, CF01 was 14030, down 25 (-0.18%) from August 20; CF09 was 13770, down 30 (-0.22%); CF09 - 01 was -260, down 5 [3]. - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: In Xinjiang, it was 15038 on August 21, down 42 (-0.28%); in Henan, 15274, down 30 (-0.20%); in Shandong, 15208, down 30 (-0.20%); Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1008, down 17 [3]. - **Domestic棉纱 Futures**: CY was 20060 on August 21, down 5 (-0.02%) [3]. - **Domestic棉纱 Spot**: C32S price index remained at 20700 on August 21, with no change [3]. - **US Cotton Spot**: CT (USD/磅) was 67.53 on August 21, with no change; the arrival price was 77.20, 1% quota pick - up price was 13602, and sliding - duty pick - up price was 14358, all with no change [3]. Spread Data - **Yarn - Cotton Spread**: The futures spread was 6030 on August 21, up 20; the spot spread remained at 756 [3]. - **Internal - External Spread (Spot)**: It was 1636 on August 21, down 30 [4]. Other Data - **Cotton Import Profit (Shandong - US Cotton 1% Quota)**, **National Cotton Commercial Inventory (in 10,000 tons)**, **Spinning Mill Finished - Product Inventory (days)**, **Weaving Mill Finished - Product Inventory (days)**, and **Cotton Grey Cloth Inventory** are presented in graphical form in the report, showing historical data trends [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - China's July social retail sales year-on-year growth slowed to 3.7%, and the total retail sales of automobiles turned negative year-on-year; US July retail sales increased 0.5% month-on-month, and real retail sales have increased for ten consecutive months, but the University of Michigan consumer confidence unexpectedly declined in August, with both short- and long-term inflation expectations rising [1] - For copper, the Fed's meeting minutes showed concerns about inflation, with a hawkish tone. The LME copper spot discount has widened recently, the copper import window has opened periodically, and downstream demand is in the off - season, so the copper price has limited downside space [1] - For aluminum, the Fed's meeting minutes are hawkish. Domestically, the downstream demand for aluminum is under pressure, and inventory is accumulating, so the aluminum price may be weak [1] - For zinc, there are both positive and negative factors in the macro - environment. The zinc production is recovering, and the social inventory is increasing, which suppresses the zinc price, but there is still a risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc [1] - For nickel, the macro - sentiment has cooled slightly. The global nickel inventory is at a high level, and the short - term nickel price fluctuates with the macro - situation. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations and selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Indicators - LME copper spot price is 9576.5 dollars/ton, down 0.47%; 15:00 futures price is 9700.5 dollars/ton, down 0.05% [1] - LME zinc spot price is 2763 dollars/ton, up 0.18%; 15:00 futures price is 2786 dollars/ton, up 0.78% [1] - LME aluminum spot price is 1929 dollars/ton, down 0.16%; 15:00 futures price is 2574 dollars/ton, up 0.25% [1] - LME nickel spot price is 14780 dollars/ton, down 0.71%; 15:00 futures price is 15015 dollars/ton, down 0.3% [1] - LME tin spot price is 33800 dollars/ton, down 0.57%; 15:00 futures price is 33755 dollars/ton, down 0.25% [1] - SHFE copper spot price is 78910 dollars/ton, up 0.15%; 15:00 futures price is 78540 dollars/ton, down 0.13% [1] - SHFE zinc spot price is 22280 dollars/ton, up 0.59%; 15:00 futures price is 22240 dollars/ton, down 0.11% [1] - SHFE aluminum spot price is 20690 dollars/ton, up 0.93%; 15:00 futures price is 20590 dollars/ton, up 0.27% [1] - SHFE nickel spot price is 121460 dollars/ton, up 0.24%; 15:00 futures price is 119830 dollars/ton, down 0.08% [1] Inventory Indicators - LME copper futures inventory is 156350 tons, unchanged; the warehouse - receipt cancellation ratio is 7.26% [1] - LME zinc futures inventory is 69375 tons, down 2.63%; the warehouse - receipt cancellation ratio is 37.12% [1] - LME aluminum futures inventory is 479525 tons, unchanged; the warehouse - receipt cancellation ratio is 2.93% [1] - LME nickel futures inventory is 209598 tons, up 0.12%; the warehouse - receipt cancellation ratio is 3.81% [1] - LME tin futures inventory is 1740 tons, up 1.46%; the warehouse - receipt cancellation ratio is 5.83% [1] - SHFE copper futures inventory is 86361 tons, up 5.4%; the warehouse - receipt is 25157 tons, down 0.26% [1] - SHFE zinc futures inventory is 76803 tons, up 16.51%; the warehouse - receipt is 32288 tons, unchanged [1] - SHFE aluminum futures inventory is 120653 tons, up 6.2%; the warehouse - receipt is 59890 tons, down 4.84% [1] Ascending and Descending Premium Indicators - LME copper's previous - day ascending and descending premium was - 96.9 dollars/ton, the current - day was - 90.8 dollars/ton, a change of 6.1 dollars/ton [1] - LME zinc's previous - day ascending and descending premium was - 10.3 dollars/ton, the current - day was - 9.3 dollars/ton, a change of 0.93 dollars/ton [1] - LME aluminum's previous - day ascending and descending premium was - 3.6 dollars/ton, the current - day was - 2.3 dollars/ton, a change of 1.31 dollars/ton [1] - SHFE copper's previous - day ascending and descending premium was 190 yuan/ton, the current - day was 160 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton [1] - SHFE zinc's previous - day ascending and descending premium was - 50 yuan/ton, the current - day was - 40 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton [1] Ratio and Spread Indicators - The previous - day copper Shanghai - London ratio was 8.1, the current - day was 8.1, a change of - 0.37% [1] - The previous - day zinc Shanghai - London ratio was 8, the current - day was 8.1, a change of 0.74% [1] - The previous - day copper SHFE near - month minus continuous - three spread was 30 yuan/ton, the current - day was 60 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton [1] - The previous - day zinc SHFE near - month minus continuous - three spread was 40 yuan/ton, the current - day was 35 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint - The log spot market was basically stable this week, with port inventories decreasing, outbound volume remaining stable, and spot prices rising due to increased inquiries from futures - spot traders. The 09 contract is approaching delivery, with a significant increase in log warehouse receipts, and the futures price is under pressure and expected to operate weakly [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - In Shandong, for radiation pine, 3.9 - meter medium A is 750 yuan/m³, 5.9 - meter medium A is 790 yuan/m³, 3.9 - meter small A is 720 yuan/m³, 5.9 - meter small A is 730 yuan/m³; in Jiangsu, 4 - meter medium A is 770 yuan/m³, 6 - meter medium A is 800 yuan/m³, 4 - meter small A is 720 yuan/m³, 6 - meter small A is 750 yuan/m³ [4] Outer - disk Quotation - The price range of 4 - meter medium A radiation pine in July is 113 - 117 dollars/JAS m³, up 6 dollars from June's 110 - 111 dollars/JAS m³ [4] Futures Price - LG2511 contract is 823.5 yuan/m³, up 2 yuan from the previous period; LG2509 contract is 804.5 yuan/m³, down 1 yuan from the previous period [4] Downstream Wood Square Price - In Shandong, the price of 4000*50*100 wood square is 1270 yuan, unchanged from the previous period; in Jiangsu, it is 1280 yuan, up 20 yuan from the previous period [4] Supply (Import Volume) - In June 2025, New Zealand's import volume was 167.3 million m³, North American timber was 9.5 million m³, and European timber was 19 million m³. New Zealand's shipment volume to China from August 4 - 10 was 26 million JAS m³, down from 27 million JAS m³ from July 28 - August 3 [4] Inventory - On August 15, the total inventory was 306 million m³, with Shandong's inventory at 185 million m³ and Jiangsu's at 98 million m³ [4] Demand (Daily Outbound Volume) - On August 15, the daily outbound volume was 6.33 million m³, with Shandong's at 3.59 million m³ and Jiangsu's at 2.32 million m³ [4]