Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current domestic and overseas factors are generally favorable. The "anti - involution" policy and the upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of the month have raised policy expectations. Overseas, the postponement of reciprocal tariffs to August and the TACO transaction have boosted market sentiment, while the recent expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased. A - share liquidity and market sentiment are strong, and stock index futures are expected to run strongly. The strategy is mainly to adjust and go long [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Their Driving Forces**: Economic and corporate earnings are neutral; macro - policies are neutral; overseas factors are slightly positive; liquidity is slightly positive [3]. - **Investment View and Strategy**: Adjust and go long. The trading strategy is to adjust and go long unilaterally, and pay attention to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 1.09% to 4058.5; the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.28% to 2764.5; the CSI 500 rose 1.2% to 6099.6; the CSI 1000 rose 1.41% to 6552.1 [5]. - **Industry Index Performance**: In the Shenwan Primary Industry Index, communication (7.6%), pharmaceutical biology (4%), automobiles (3.3%), machinery and equipment (2.9%), and national defense and military industry (2.3%) led the gains last week, while media (- 2.2%), real estate (- 2.2%), public utilities (- 1.4%), non - bank finance (- 1.2%), and banks (- 1%) led the losses [8]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of various stock index futures showed different changes. For example, the trading volume of CSI 1000 futures decreased by 3.10%, and the open interest decreased by 11.96% [12]. - **Cross - Variety Spread Performance**: The spread between the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai Composite 50, and the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 are at certain historical percentile levels [17]. 3.3 Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - **Funds and Macro - liquidity**: The central bank conducted 17268 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 12011 billion yuan. Next week, 17268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, and 2000 billion yuan of MLF will expire on July 25 [23]. - **Market Liquidity Indicators**: As of July 17, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 18984.4 billion yuan, an increase of 285.5 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week increased by 323.8 billion yuan compared with the previous week [29]. 3.4 Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In the first half of 2025, China's GDP totaled 660536 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. In June, industrial added value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, but the demand side weakened. Real estate investment from January to June further declined to - 11.2%, and the growth rate of consumption in June was 4.8%, lower than last month's 6.4% [3]. - **Corporate Earnings Indicators**: The report provides the year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent and ROE of major broad - based indexes and Shenwan primary industry indexes [44][45]. 3.5 Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Driving - **Recent Macro - policy Trends**: A series of important meetings and policies have been introduced, including the central government's emphasis on promoting the construction of a unified national market, urban work deployment, and a series of monetary and fiscal policies [49][50][51]. 3.6 Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In June, the US manufacturing PMI was 49%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous value. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, and the number of new non - farm jobs was 147,000 [57]. - **Trump Team's Actions**: Trump's team has announced a series of tariff policies, which have a significant impact on international trade and the global economic situation [65][67][69]. 3.7 Stock Index Influence Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation Levels**: As of July 18, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 13.4 times, 11.4 times, 29.8 times, and 40.2 times respectively, and were at the 71.4%, 81.4%, 70.6%, and 60.8% percentile levels in the past ten years [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided content 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - The table shows various data including percentages and numerical values, such as 82.6% with a +2.2% change, but the specific meaning of these data is not clear from the context [4] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The section contains multiple charts related to the relationship between base price, 32 - alkali in Shandong (converted to 100%), and the main contract, as well as price trends and differences of different alkali products over time [8][9][14] PART THREE: Fundamental Data on Caustic Soda Supply and Demand - There are many charts presenting data on capacity utilization, device loss, inventory (including China's overall inventory, flake caustic soda inventory), regional production (North China, East China, Northwest China, etc.), ECU profits in different regions (Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, etc.), and the operating rates of downstream industries (epoxy chloropropane, epoxy propane, etc.) [29][31][34][36][70]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Bullish [3] - Soda Ash: Sideways [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term supply and demand of glass are stable, and market sentiment dominates. Soda ash has a weak fundamental situation but positive market sentiment [3][4]. - The "anti - involution" theme is the main trading logic in the short - term, improving overall sentiment and causing glass and soda ash prices to rise. Glass has demand resilience and price support, while soda ash faces price pressure due to supply increase and demand weakening [40][41][42]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Neutral, with stable production. Daily output is 158,400 tons, industry start - up rate is 75.68%, and capacity utilization is 79.2%, all unchanged from the 10th. No new ignition or water - release production lines this week, and one pre - ignited line may produce glass next week [3]. - Demand: Bullish, with short - term resilience despite overall pressure in the off - season. Mid - term demand is a concern due to the weak real estate situation [3]. - Inventory: Bullish, with significant inventory reduction. Enterprise inventory is 64.939 million heavy cases, a 3.22% week - on - week decrease and a 0.29% year - on - year increase. Inventory days are 27.9 days, 1 day less than the previous period [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral, with volatile basis this week and a lower 09 - 01 spread [3]. - Valuation: Neutral, with prices rebounding from the low point and cost support [3]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish, with improved market sentiment due to the "anti - involution" trading logic [3]. - Investment View: Bullish, with short - term supply - demand stability and sentiment - driven [3]. - Trading Strategy: Buy call options for single - side trading; no arbitrage strategy [3]. Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish, with increased supply. This week's production is 733,200 tons, a 3.42% week - on - week increase. Light soda ash production is 318,500 tons, and heavy soda ash production is 414,700 tons, both increasing. Supply is expected to continue rising next week [4]. - Demand: Bearish, with weakening demand from the float and photovoltaic industries. Downstream purchases are mainly on - demand [4]. - Inventory: Bearish, with increased inventory. Total factory inventory is 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% week - on - week increase. Light soda ash inventory decreases by 8,300 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory increases by 50,500 tons [4]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral, with a weakening basis this week and a lower 09 - 01 spread [4]. - Valuation: Neutral, with prices rebounding and cost support [4]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish, with improved market sentiment due to the "anti - involution" trading logic [4]. - Investment View: Sideways, with a weak fundamental situation but positive sentiment [4]. - Trading Strategy: No single - side or arbitrage strategy [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Price: This week, the price fluctuated strongly. The main contract closed at 1081 (+55), and the Shahe spot price was 1088 (+12) [6]. Soda Ash - Price: This week, the price fluctuated strongly. The main contract closed at 1216 (+42), and the Shahe spot price was 1215 (+13) [11]. Spread/Basis - Soda Ash: The 09 - 01 spread fluctuated, and the basis fluctuated [20]. - Glass: The 09 - 01 spread increased slightly, and the basis fluctuated [20]. 3. Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Stable. Production is stable, and production profits have slightly recovered. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel is - 178.90 yuan/ton, a 4.21 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase; using coal - made gas is 121.83 yuan/ton, a 13.05 - yuan/ton increase; using petroleum coke is - 4.76 yuan/ton, a 45.71 - yuan/ton increase [23]. - Demand: Resilient. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak, with an average order days of 9.3 days, a 2.1% week - on - week and a 7.0% year - on - year decrease. Real - estate mid - and back - end completion data is poor [26][27]. - Inventory: Significantly reduced, with enterprise inventory at 64.939 million heavy cases, a 3.22% week - on - week decrease and a 0.29% year - on - year increase. Inventory days are 27.9 days, 1 day less than the previous period [28]. Soda Ash - Supply: Increasing. Production has increased, and production profits are decreasing. Ammonia - soda method theoretical profit is - 83.20 yuan/ton, a 0.90 - yuan/ton week - on - week decrease; combined - soda method theoretical profit (double - ton) is - 33.50 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase [32][33]. - Demand: Weakening, with weakening demand from the float and photovoltaic industries, especially in the photovoltaic industry with expected production cuts. Downstream purchases are mainly on - demand [36]. - Inventory: Increasing. Total factory inventory is 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% week - on - week increase. Light soda ash inventory decreases by 8,300 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory increases by 50,500 tons [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The reduction of butadiene inventory supports the raw material price of synthetic rubber. However, the overall supply of the cis - butadiene rubber fundamentals remains relatively loose. Although the factory inventory is being depleted smoothly, the inventory of traders continues to accumulate. The market is waiting for an increase in new downstream orders. It is expected that the synthetic rubber will remain in a destocking state in the short - term, and the price will remain stable and show an oscillating upward trend [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This cycle, Sinopec's ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 100 yuan/ton in total, and PetroChina's sales companies' ex - factory prices decreased by 300 yuan/ton in total. As of July 10, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis in China was between 11,400 - 11,600 yuan/ton. The early continuous price - pressing transactions led to a significant market inversion. The price cut at the beginning of the week was in line with market expectations. The spot supply side changed little, the raw material end saw better transactions after the price decline, and the futures market of synthetic rubber quickly strengthened, driving the low - price range of the spot end to rise significantly. However, downstream terminals still maintained price - pressing purchases, and the spot market followed up slowly [4]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 101,800 tons (- 2.86%), and the capacity utilization rate was 68.89%. Some devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical 3, and a set of Shanghai Secco remained shut down. Sheng Hong restarted after a short - term shutdown, which affected the production decline [3]. - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: Last week, the production of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 26,300 tons (- 2.16%), and the capacity utilization rate was 65.54%. Only a few devices had a slight decline in load this week. Some maintenance devices in North China may restart in the next cycle [3]. 3.2.2 Demand - **Semi - steel tires**: The domestic replacement market was stable during the cycle. The market had regular shipments. The continuous high - temperature weather in many regions slightly boosted the terminal replacement, but the current market inventory was high, and the focus was on digesting the existing inventory. - **All - steel tires**: Similar to the semi - steel tire market, there was no obvious performance yet. Market merchants at all levels were mainly digesting previous inventories. Some brand agents carried out small - scale self - promotions this month according to their own inventory situations. - **Overall situation**: Currently, enterprise production scheduling tends to be stable. There is an expected increase in orders in the middle of the month, which is expected to slightly drive the overall start - up, but the overall fluctuation is expected to be small. The overall market shipment is tepid, the channel supply is sufficient, and the increase in terminal demand is limited. Although the hot weather has driven the downstream market demand to some extent, the overall effect is average [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 23,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.69%. The import shipments last week were limited, the downstream raw material inventory was normally consumed, and the recent trading volume was limited, which led to a significant decline in the sample port inventory. The enterprise inventory increased slightly, but there was no overall pressure [3]. - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: Last week, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 32,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. The expected price cut of the supply price, affected by the failure of an upstream device in East China at the butadiene raw material end, led to a slight overall increase in the production enterprise inventory and a slight decrease in the sample trading enterprise inventory [3]. 3.4 Other Factors Analysis 3.4.1 Basis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 165 yuan/ton, in East China was - 165 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 65 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the futures price oscillated upward, the basis narrowed and remained stable, and the futures price was at a premium to the spot price [3]. 3.4.2 Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 3,090 yuan/ton (12.57%), the NR - BR spread was 955 yuan/ton (25.66%), and the BR - SC price ratio was - 0.32% [3]. 3.4.3 Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was 66 yuan/ton, and the production gross profit by C4 extraction was 1,750.82 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 276 yuan/ton, and the gross profit rate was - 2.30% [3]. 3.4.4 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - OPEC maintained its 2025 crude oil demand forecast in its July report, and oil - producing countries continued their production increase progress. The EIA crude oil inventory decreased, but gasoline and diesel inventories increased significantly. The refined oil market was weaker than the crude oil market. China's average annual growth rate of foreign investment exceeded 5%, and the total scale ranked among the top three in the world. Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy continued, and China's "anti - involution" policy continued to advance [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Oscillating. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Also, pay attention to downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance situations, and geopolitical issues [3].

Market Review - The closing prices of SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 2744.2604, 4034.491, and 6535.6713 respectively, with changes of 0.12%, 0.68%, and 1.14% [4]. - The trading volumes of SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 36.15 billion, 161.25 billion, and 227.83 billion respectively, and the turnovers were 746.46 billion yuan, 3255.17 billion yuan, and 3259.84 billion yuan respectively [4]. - In the CFFEX stock index options trading, the option trading volumes of SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 3.97 million contracts, 9.93 million contracts, and 27.30 million contracts respectively, and the option open - interests were 7.76 million contracts, 20.16 million contracts, and 28.66 million contracts respectively [4]. Volatility Analysis - Historical volatility and implied volatility curves are provided for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, including maximum, minimum, percentile values, and current values [8][9]. Overall Market Situation - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3516.83 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.75%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.86%, the STAR 50 rose 0.8%, the Wind All - A rose 0.94%, the Wind A500 rose 0.83%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.9% [9]. - A - share trading volume was 1.56 trillion yuan for the day, compared with 1.46 trillion yuan the previous day [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Polycrystalline Silicon, Palm Oil, Soybean (MO1), Pulp [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Cotton, Manganese Silicon, Pure Metal, Soda Ash, Corn (C01), Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, HK, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Fertilizer, PVC, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Silicomanganese, Coking Coal, Coke, Rapeseed Oil, Sugar, Corn (C09), Live Pig, Energy Chemicals (including various sub - items), etc. [1] Core Views - The stock index is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to the market's increased willingness to allocate equity assets and positive market sentiment [1] - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the short - term interest rate risk prompted by the central bank restricts the upward space [1] - Gold is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term due to market uncertainties, while the strengthening dollar may suppress silver prices [1] - Copper prices have a risk of supplementary decline, aluminum and alumina prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and zinc prices are under pressure [1] - Nickel and stainless steel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - Tin prices have short - term support but a risk of a downward - moving center in the long term [1] - Some commodities like polycrystalline silicon are bullish, while others such as manganese silicon are bearish, and most commodities are in an oscillating state due to various factors including supply - demand relationships, cost support, and market sentiment [1] Summary by Categories Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: The reaction of the recent stock index to negative news is significantly dull, with strong trading volume and sentiment. The market's willingness to allocate equity assets increases, and market sentiment is boosted by "anti - involution" and real - estate policy expectations. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market uncertainties remain, and the price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1] - **Silver**: The strengthening dollar may suppress the price [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: US inflation rebound and potential copper tariff implementation in August bring a risk of supplementary decline in copper prices [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: High aluminum prices suppress downstream demand, inventory rises, and prices oscillate weakly; alumina has a good profit, with rising production and inventory, and its price also oscillates weakly [1] - **Zinc**: The weakening of interest - rate cut expectations and the gradual realization of inventory - accumulation expectations put pressure on zinc prices [1] - **Nickel**: The interest - rate cut expectation weakens, and the price oscillates. There is a short - term opportunity to short on rallies, and long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The interest - rate cut expectation falls, raw - material prices weaken, inventory increases, and attention should be paid to production and raw - material changes [1] - **Tin**: Short - term fundamentals are supported, but there is a risk of a downward - moving price center in the long term [1] Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply decreases in the north and increases in the south, demand from polycrystalline silicon increases marginally but may decrease later, and market sentiment is high [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Bullish due to no supply reduction and high market sentiment [1] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply does not decrease, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and market sentiment is high [1] Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Strong furnace materials provide valuation support, and prices oscillate [1] - **Iron Ore**: Commodity sentiment is good, but fundamentals are marginally weakening, and prices oscillate [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term production increases, demand is okay, supply - demand is relatively loose, and prices are under pressure [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Production increases slightly, supply - demand is relatively balanced, and prices oscillate [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Bullish due to expected international demand growth, an upward - adjusted reference price in Malaysia, and short - term exhaustion of negative factors [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Australian rapeseed may enter the domestic market, Sino - Canadian trade frictions continue, and domestic rapeseed inventory is low [1] - **Cotton**: There are trade - negotiation and weather premiums in US cotton in the short term, and macro - uncertainties are strong in the long term. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and the weakening of crude oil may affect the sugar - production ratio [1] - **Corn**: The old - crop inventory is tightening, but downstream procurement is cautious. New - season corn has a good yield and lower production costs [1] - **Soybean**: There are expectations of increased Chinese purchases of US soybeans, and the import cost supports the price, which is expected to oscillate strongly [1] - **Pulp**: Affected by strong commodity sentiment and low valuation, it is expected to rise in the short term [1] - **Live Pig**: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, OPEC+ is expected to increase production, and short - term consumption in Europe and the US is strong, so prices oscillate [1] - **HK and BR Rubber**: HK has a weakening downstream demand and strong supply - release expectations; BR rubber has cost - end support from partial device overhauls [1] - **PTA and Ethylene Glycol**: PTA supply contracts, but crude oil is strong, and polyester downstream load remains high; ethylene glycol has a large expected arrival volume later, but overseas supply may contract [1] - **Short Fiber and Styrene**: Short - fiber factories have more overhauls and low warehouse - receipt registration; styrene device load recovers, and the basis weakens [1] - **Fertilizer**: Domestic demand is average, but export expectations improve in the second half of the year [1] - **PVC and Chlor - Alkali**: PVC has a good market sentiment but faces seasonal supply pressure; chlor - alkali has a repaired comprehensive profit and more expected warehouse receipts [1] - **LPG**: Crude - oil support is insufficient, it is in the seasonal off - season for demand, and the price oscillates weakly [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is in a pattern of stable reality and weak expectations, with the freight rate expected to peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the commodity market has turned positive, and polyester prices have followed suit. Despite the expectation of reduced downstream polyester load, the actual production has reached a new high. In July, both bottle chips and staple fibers are entering the maintenance cycle. The PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with an increase in the arrival of spot goods. Due to compressed profits, polyester replenishment willingness is low [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators Price Indicators - PTA spot price increased from 4720 to 4730, a rise of 10 [2]. - MEG domestic price rose from 4400 to 4437, an increase of 37 [2]. - PTA closing price increased from 4706 to 4714, up 8 [2]. - MEG closing price went up from 4351 to 4372, a gain of 21 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6680 to 6635, a drop of 45 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber basis decreased from 130 to 105, a decline of 25 [2]. - 8 - 9 spread increased from 136 to 154, up 18 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a rise of 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5760 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 920 to 875, a drop of 45 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price increased from 5909 to 5915, up 6 [2]. - Hot - filled polyester bottle chip price increased from 5909 to 5915, up 6 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6009 to 6015, up 6 [2]. - Outer - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 780 [2]. - Bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 399 to 384, a decline of 14.95 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10510 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3830 to 3875, up 45 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16280 [2]. - Cotton 328 price increased from 15180 to 15390, up 210 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1113 to 1064, a decline of 49.55 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) fiber price decreased from 7100 to 7085, a drop of 15 [2]. - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 390 to 354, a decline of 35.95 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price decreased from 7415 to 7395, a drop of 20 [2]. Production and Sales Indicators - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 92.30% to 93.00%, a decline of 0.01 [3]. - Polyester staple fiber production and sales rate increased from 48.00% to 47.00%, a rise of 1.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) decreased from 66.00% to 65.00%, a decline of 0.01 [3]. - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 46.00%, a decline of 0.06 [3].

Report Summary 1. Market Interest Rates - DR001 closed at 1.46% with a -0.49bp change, DR007 at 1.52% with -0.68bp [3] - GC001 closed at 1.13% with -37.00bp, GC007 at 1.47% with -6.50bp [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.56% with -0.20bp, LPR 5 - year at 3.50% with 0.00bp [3] - 1 - year treasury closed at 1.35% with -0.50bp, 5 - year at 1.51% with -0.25bp [3] - 10 - year treasury closed at 1.66% with 0.00bp, 10 - year US treasury at 4.46% with -4.00bp [3] 2. Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 450.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 90 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 360.5 billion yuan [3] - This week, there are 425.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market, with 84.7 billion yuan maturing on Friday. The central bank's reverse repurchases continued to increase, signaling care for the capital market [4] 3. Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 rose 0.68% to 4034.5, the SSE 50 rose 0.12% to 2744.3, the CSI 500 rose 1.08% to 6082.5, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.14% to 6535.7 [5] - **Sector Performance**: Most industry sectors closed higher. Aerospace, biological products, electronic components, medical services, communication equipment, consumer electronics, energy metals, and chemical pharmaceuticals led the gains, while the precious metals sector led the losses [5] - **Market Analysis**: With a calm macro - news background, the stock index continued to rise, and market trading volume further increased. The large - and small - cap stocks showed a differentiated trend, with small - cap stocks performing strongly. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [5] - **Reasons for Strength**: The "asset shortage" and "national team" support increase the willingness to allocate equity assets. The "anti - involution" and the Politburo meeting at the end of July strengthen policy expectations and boost market sentiment [5] 4. Futures Contracts - **Volume and Open Interest**: IF volume increased by 5.4% to 105,631, and open interest increased by 2.9% to 263,172; IH volume increased by 5.2% to 52,058, and open interest increased by 3.6% to 94,545; IC volume decreased by 1.2% to 99,016, and open interest increased by 0.1% to 223,761; IM volume decreased by 1.0% to 195,970, and open interest increased by 1.6% to 331,365 [5] - **Basis**: IF basis was 33.39% for the next - quarter contract, 3.58% for the current - month contract, 3.21% for the next - month contract, and 3.52% for the current - quarter contract; IH basis was - 1.86% for the next - quarter contract, 1.04% for the current - month contract, 0.29% for the next - month contract, and 0.04% for the current - quarter contract; IC basis was 10.73% for the next - quarter contract, 0.39% for the current - month contract, 9.79% for the next - month contract, and 9.02% for the current - quarter contract; IM basis was 13.42% for the next - quarter contract, - 7.42% for the current - month contract, 12.68% for the next - month contract, and 11.99% for the current - quarter contract [5]

Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Data - Current value of Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1733, previous value was 1763, with a decline of -1.71% [4] - Current value of China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) is 1314, previous value was 1343, with a decline of -2.18% [4] - Current value of SCFI - US West is 2194, previous value was 2089, with an increase of 5.03% [4] - Current value of SCFIS - US West is 1266, previous value was 1557, with a decline of -18.69% [4] - Current value of SCFI - US East is 4172, previous value was 4124, with an increase of 1.16% [4] - Current value of SCFI - Northwest Europe is 2099, previous value was 2101, with a decline of -0.10% [4] - Current value of SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 2421, previous value was 2258, with an increase of 7.22% [4] - Current value of SCFI - Mediterranean is 2667, previous value was 2869, with a decline of -7.04% [4] - Current value of EC2506 is 1432.1, previous value was 1421.6, with an increase of 0.74% [4] - Current value of EC2508 is 2164.5, previous value was 2153.0, with an increase of 0.53% [4] - Current value of EC2510 is 1581.3, previous value was 1598.1, with a decline of -1.05% [4] - Current value of EC2512 is 1756.3, previous value was 1759.0, with a decline of -0.15% [4] - Current value of EC2602 is 1485.7, previous value was 1463.4, with an increase of 1.52% [4] - Current value of EC2604 is 1309.0, previous value was 1280.8, with an increase of 2.20% [4] - Current value of EC2606持仓 is 667, previous value was 637, with an increase of 30 [4] - Current value of EC2508持仓 is 16587, previous value was 18747, with a decline of 2160 [4] - Current value of EC2410持仓 is 50025, previous value was 50478, with a decline of 453 [4] - Current value of EC2412持仓 is 7885, previous value was 7652, with an increase of 233 [4] - Current value of EC2602持仓 is 3693, previous value was 3573, with an increase of 120 [4] - Current value of EC2604持仓 is 5234, previous value was 5200, with an increase of 34 [4] - Current value of 10 - 12 month difference is 583.2, previous value was 554.9, with an increase of 28.3 [4] - Current value of 12 - 2 month difference is -175.0, previous value was -160.9, with a decline of 14.1 [4] - Current value of 12 - 4 month difference is 447.3, previous value was 478.2, with a decline of 30.9 [4] Group 2: Market News - Protests erupted in Israel, demanding a hostage agreement. Israel accepted a 60 - day cease - fire and hostage release draft proposed by Qatar, but Hamas rejected it. The core of the deadlock is the map parameters for the Israeli army's withdrawal from Gaza. Israel will present a new map plan next Monday [5] - MSK opened bookings in wk31 at a flat price of 3000 [6][7] - Some offline sailings of 0A ships can guarantee cabins, are free of long - term validity, and the destination port can approve off - site container returns [7] - MSK has some single - point cabin space on European routes [8] - For PA in late July, some special - price cabins for matching goods still need to be booked in advance, and the overall cabin space at the end of the month is abundant [9] - European port congestion persists due to labor shortages, a strike at the Port of Antwerp, low Rhine River water levels, and rising Red Sea route risks [9] Group 3: EC Market Analysis - The EC market has declined recently, but EC2510 and far - month contracts have risen significantly [10] - Reasons for the sharp rise in 10 and far - month contracts: the change of the main contract from 2508 to 2510, better - than - expected spot market with European port congestion, and some assistance from geopolitical factors [11][12] - In the future, there may be a rush to ship in July. The current situation of European routes is stable reality and weak expectation. Spot prices are expected to enter an arc - top trend from late July to early August. After the deep discount on the futures market is repaired, investors should not chase high prices [12] - Strategy: short 10 contracts on rallies and hold 12 - 4 calendar spreads [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot price of pigs continued to decline by 0.1 yuan/kg today, mainly due to limited slaughter by the farming side and limited downstream acceptance. However, the slaughter weight has not changed significantly. From the perspective of slaughter volume, the pig slaughter volume decreased month-on-month from June to July, mainly supported by the slowdown of winter piglet losses. The group factories stopped large-scale weight reduction this month, and the weight of散户 has been relatively stable. According to Yongyi data, the average slaughter weight this week was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from last week, a month-on-month increase of 0.30%. In terms of replenishment, the average market sales price of 16 kg piglets in June was 556 yuan/head, a month-on-month decrease of 11.46% from May, and June is the off-season for replenishment. Recently, the spot price has declined. Today, the opening of the 09 contract showed a premium structure with the spot price in Sichuan, and the futures price has declined significantly recently. It is expected that in the short term, the spot price will lack upward momentum under the background of weak consumption and no effective decline in slaughter weight. In the medium term, the supply will return to a loose state after the inventory is repaired in August. Pay attention to the inflection point of the spot price after August [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pig Price Data in Different Regions - The pig prices in various regions across the country showed a downward trend on July 17, 2025. For example, the price in Henan was 14.4 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan; in Hunan, it was 13.99 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan; in Guangdong, it was 15.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.37 yuan. The national average price was 13.57 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan [2] Futures Contract Data - The prices of LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 futures contracts all increased on July 17, 2025. The price of LH2509 was 14,060 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan; LH2511 was 13,535 yuan, an increase of 45 yuan; LH2601 was 13,750 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan. The spread between LH09 - 11 was 525 yuan on July 17, an increase of 5 yuan, and the spread between LH11 - 01 was -215 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [2] Slaughter and Weight Data - From June to July, the pig slaughter volume decreased month-on-month. The average slaughter weight this week was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from last week, a month-on-month increase of 0.30% [2] Piglet Replenishment Data - In June, the average market sales price of 16 kg piglets was 556 yuan/head, a month-on-month decrease of 11.46% from May, and June is the off-season for replenishment [2]